Cold War Doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction
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Deterring and Dissuading Nuclear Terrorism
Journal of Strategic Security Volume 5 Number 1 Volume 5, No. 1: Spring 2012 Article 6 Deterring and Dissuading Nuclear Terrorism John J. Klein ANSER, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/jss Part of the Defense and Security Studies Commons, National Security Law Commons, and the Portfolio and Security Analysis Commons pp. 15-30 Recommended Citation Klein, John J.. "Deterring and Dissuading Nuclear Terrorism." Journal of Strategic Security 5, no. 1 (2012) : 15-30. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.5.1.2 Available at: https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/jss/vol5/iss1/6 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Open Access Journals at Scholar Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Journal of Strategic Security by an authorized editor of Scholar Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Deterring and Dissuading Nuclear Terrorism Abstract While nuclear deterrence theory may be well-suited to dealing with nuclear-armed states, its suitability for deterring nuclear terrorism has frequently been questioned since 9/11. While terrorist organizations do not necessarily act uniformly or according to the same underlying beliefs, many of the most aggressive organizations are motivated by an ideology that embraces martyrdom and an apocalyptic vision.1 This ideology may be based on religion or a desire to overthrow a government. Consequently, terrorists motivated by ideology who intend to use a stolen or improvised nuclear device against the United States or its interests may not care about the resulting military repercussions following a nuclear attack. -
The Foundations of US Air Doctrine
DISCLAIMER This study represents the views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the Air University Center for Aerospace Doctrine, Research, and Education (CADRE) or the Department of the Air Force. This manuscript has been reviewed and cleared for public release by security and policy review authorities. iii Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Watts, Barry D. The Foundations ofUS Air Doctrine . "December 1984 ." Bibliography : p. Includes index. 1. United States. Air Force. 2. Aeronautics, Military-United States. 3. Air warfare . I. Title. 11. Title: Foundations of US air doctrine . III. Title: Friction in war. UG633.W34 1984 358.4'00973 84-72550 355' .0215-dc 19 ISBN 1-58566-007-8 First Printing December 1984 Second Printing September 1991 ThirdPrinting July 1993 Fourth Printing May 1996 Fifth Printing January 1997 Sixth Printing June 1998 Seventh Printing July 2000 Eighth Printing June 2001 Ninth Printing September 2001 iv THE AUTHOR s Lieutenant Colonel Barry D. Watts (MA philosophy, University of Pittsburgh; BA mathematics, US Air Force Academy) has been teaching and writing about military theory since he joined the Air Force Academy faculty in 1974 . During the Vietnam War he saw combat with the 8th Tactical Fighter Wing at Ubon, Thailand, completing 100 missions over North Vietnam in June 1968. Subsequently, Lieutenant Colonel Watts flew F-4s from Yokota AB, Japan, and Kadena AB, Okinawa. More recently, he has served as a military assistant to the Director of Net Assessment, Office of the Secretary of Defense, and with the Air Staff's Project CHECKMATE. -
Deterrence Theory in the Cyber-Century Lessons from a State-Of-The-Art Literature Review
Working Paper Research Division EU/Europe Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs Annegret Bendiek, Tobias Metzger Deterrence theory in the cyber-century Lessons from a state-of-the-art literature review SWP Working Papers are online publications of SWP’s research divisions which have not been formally reviewed by the Institute. Ludwigkirchplatz 3−4 10719 Berlin Phone +49 30 880 07-0 Fax +49 30 880 07-100 www.swp-berlin.org Working Paper RD EU/Europe, 2015/ 02, May 2015 [email protected] SWP Berlin Table of Contents List of Figures 1 List of Abbreviations 2 Introduction 3 In theory – Deterrence theory and cyberspace 4 Deterrence-by-retaliation and deterrence-by-denial 6 In practice – Suitability of cyber: lessons and implications 7 Key challenges: Credibility and capability to display and use force 7 How to deter? Deterrence-by-denial and deterrence-by- retaliation 9 Determining the type of defence 9 Adding offence to the equation 10 When and whom to deter? Immediate vs. general deterrence and the challenge of attribution 10 What to deter? Narrow vs. broad deterrence 12 For whom? Central vs. extended deterrence 13 Conclusion and outlook 14 Annex 16 Glossary 16 List of References 17 List of Figures Figure 1: Limits to retaliation in cyberspace .................. 9 Figure 2: A possible model of escalation ....................... 11 Figure 3: EEAS figure on a possible inter-ministry division of labour ................................................................. 15 Figure 4: Risk assessment -
Deception, Disinformation, and Strategic Communications: How One Interagency Group Made a Major Difference by Fletcher Schoen and Christopher J
STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVES 11 Deception, Disinformation, and Strategic Communications: How One Interagency Group Made a Major Difference by Fletcher Schoen and Christopher J. Lamb Center for Strategic Research Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University The Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) is National Defense University’s (NDU’s) dedicated research arm. INSS includes the Center for Strategic Research, Center for Complex Operations, Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs, Center for Technology and National Security Policy, Center for Transatlantic Security Studies, and Conflict Records Research Center. The military and civilian analysts and staff who comprise INSS and its subcomponents execute their mission by conducting research and analysis, publishing, and participating in conferences, policy support, and outreach. The mission of INSS is to conduct strategic studies for the Secretary of Defense, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Unified Combatant Commands in support of the academic programs at NDU and to perform outreach to other U.S. Government agencies and the broader national security community. Cover: Kathleen Bailey presents evidence of forgeries to the press corps. Credit: The Washington Times Deception, Disinformation, and Strategic Communications: How One Interagency Group Made a Major Difference Deception, Disinformation, and Strategic Communications: How One Interagency Group Made a Major Difference By Fletcher Schoen and Christopher J. Lamb Institute for National Strategic Studies Strategic Perspectives, No. 11 Series Editor: Nicholas Rostow National Defense University Press Washington, D.C. June 2012 Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Defense Department or any other agency of the Federal Government. -
What About Peacekeepers? Deterring Attacks Against Humanitarian Workers
What about Peacekeepers? Deterring Attacks against Humanitarian Workers Marcellina Priadi Uppsala University Department of Peace & Conflict Research Master Thesis Summer 2017 Word Count: 18,208 Abstract This thesis seeks to understand the phenomenon of attacks against humanitarian workers by asking: why are humanitarian workers attacked in some contexts, but not in others? By exploring the effects of deterrence as a security strategy, this thesis investigates the direct link between causes of attacks against humanitarian workers and humanitarian security. It argues that when humanitarian organisations involve peacekeepers directly in their humanitarian relief activities, this is likely to lead to a decrease in attacks. This is because peacekeepers are armed and able to function as a capable and credible counterthreat against belligerents for humanitarian organisations. A game- like theoretic model of the decision-making sequence leading up to attacks in the humanitarian space is applied to illustrate this. The theoretical argument is tested quantitatively on freshly collated data on peacekeeping activities using a negative binomial count model. Unexpectedly however, the results reveal a contradictory relationship to the hypothesis. Directly involving peacekeepers in humanitarian relief activities is associated with an increase in attacks against humanitarian workers. The surprising results are found to be significant and robust overall. 2 Acknowledgements I would like to take the opportunity to thank everyone that has assisted and supported me throughout this research process. To my classmates, for the camaraderie we have shared during this time and the immeasurable ways they have helped me to grow. To my teachers, who have challenged my thoughts and built the foundation for this thesis. -
Applying Traditional Military Principles to Cyber Warfare
2012 4th International Conference on Cyber Confl ict Permission to make digital or hard copies of this publication for internal use within NATO and for personal or educational use when for non-profi t or non-commercial C. Czosseck, R. Ottis, K. Ziolkowski (Eds.) purposes is granted providing that copies bear this notice and a full citation on the 2012 © NATO CCD COE Publications, Tallinn first page. Any other reproduction or transmission requires prior written permission by NATO CCD COE. Applying Traditional Military Principles to Cyber Warfare Samuel Liles Marcus Rogers Cyber Integration and Information Computer and Information Operations Department Technology Department National Defense University iCollege Purdue University Washington, DC West Lafayette, IN [email protected] [email protected] J. Eric Dietz Dean Larson Purdue Homeland Security Institute Larson Performance Engineering Purdue University Munster, IN West Lafayette, IN [email protected] [email protected] Abstract: Utilizing a variety of resources, the conventions of land warfare will be analyzed for their cyber impact by using the principles designated by the United States Army. The analysis will discuss in detail the factors impacting security of the network enterprise for command and control, the information conduits found in the technological enterprise, and the effects upon the adversary and combatant commander. Keywords: cyber warfare, military principles, combatant controls, mechanisms, strategy 1. INTRODUCTION Adams informs us that rapid changes due to technology have increasingly effected the affairs of the military. This effect whether economic, political, or otherwise has sometimes been extreme. Technology has also made substantial impacts on the prosecution of war. Adams also informs us that information technology is one of the primary change agents in the military of today and likely of the future [1]. -
Deterrence? What About Dissuasion? by MAJ Lim Guang He
Deterrence? What About Dissuasion? By MAJ Lim Guang He February 2020 Deterrence? What About Dissuasion? DETERRENCE? WHAT ABOUT DISSUASION? By MAJ Lim Guang He ABSTRACT In this essay, the author is not attempting to redefine deterrence but to encourage readers to consider the notion of acting before deterrence—through dissuasion. So what constitutes dissuasion and why consider it? The author feels that similar to deterrence, there is no direct answer as each country has its own set of unique security challenges and capabilities. Furthermore, the issue is made more complex as nuclear powers and non-nuclear powers employ different strategies. So, in this essay, the author attempts to: (1) elucidate the limitations of deterrence theory, (2) establish a coherent trend of elements that help define the concept of dissuasion, and (3) adapt them to the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF)’s defence policy. He first begins by analysing the limitations of classical (rational) deterrence theory and its modern derivatives in the security landscape of tomorrow. He then explores the interpretations of dissuasion today and how they can be applied. Finally, the author develops what dissuasion as a strategic concept means for Singapore and how the SAF can meld dissuasion into deterrence thinking. Keywords: Deterrence; Dissuasion; Asymmetric; Hybrid Warfare; Adversaries INTRODUCTION deterrence itself: is the SAF too entrenched in its Deterrence—a word that appears in almost every deterrence philosophy to think outside of deterrence? Is contemporary defence doctrine—including Singapore’s deterrence a sacred cow that contemporary defence ‘twin pillars of deterrence and diplomacy.’1 However, thinking must always link back to? Instead of arguing the original premise of nuclear capability and/or military the evolution of deterrence further and further away superiority as the backbone of deterrence has steadily from its conceptual roots, why not argue for a eroded into the 21st Century. -
Cyber Conflicts As a New Global Threat
future internet Article Cyber Conflicts as a New Global Threat Alexander Kosenkov Information Society Research Center, Chernihiv 14000, Ukraine; [email protected]; Tel.: +380-930570382 Academic Editor: Jiankun Hu Received: 7 June 2016; Accepted: 5 September 2016; Published: 9 September 2016 Abstract: In this paper, an attempt is made to analyze the potential threats and consequences of cyber conflicts and, in particular, the risks of a global cyber conflict. The material is based on a comprehensive analysis of the nature of cyber conflict and its elements from both technical and societal points of view. The approach used in the paper considers the societal component as an essential part of cyber conflicts, allowing basics of cyber conflicts often disregarded by researchers and the public to be highlighted. Finally, the conclusion offers an opportunity to consider cyber conflict as the most advanced form of modern warfare, which imposes the most serious threat and whose effect could be comparable to weapons of mass destruction. Keywords: cyber conflict; information warfare; cyber warfare; information operations 1. Introduction During the last decade, global social and political landscapes were changed by the revolutionary development of information and communications technologies (ICT). New ICT has also significantly influenced warfare, among other ways through the emergence of network-centric warfare doctrine and unconventional, hybrid, information, and asymmetric warfare. The most significant transformation brought by the ICT was the emergence of a totally new form of conflict—cyber conflict (in this paper, cyber conflict is defined as conflict with the application of cyberspace capabilities in order to achieve objectives in or through cyberspace)—the rise of which we are witnessing worldwide today. -
NATO's Post-Cold War Relevance in Counter Terrorism
NATO’s post-Cold War Relevance in Counter Terrorism By Austin Maness Submitted to the graduate degree program in Global and International Studies and the Graduate Faculty of the University of Kansas in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts. ________________________________ Chairperson Dr Nazli Avdan ________________________________ Dr Michael Wuthrich ________________________________ Dr Robert Baumann Date Defended: 12 May 2016 The Thesis Committee for Austin Maness certifies that this is the approved version of the following thesis: NATO’s post-Cold War Relevance in Counter Terrorism ________________________________ Chairperson Dr Nazli Avdan Date approved: 12 May 2016 ii Abstract From the end of the Cold War, through the process of globalization, national security has transitioned from an idea of purely state versus state interaction into a concept including both state and non-state actors. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), once the counter balance to the Soviet Union, has evolved into an alliance that has expanded its attention to include non-state actors, such as international terrorist organizations. Scholars have theorized on the lifespan of NATO post-Cold War, however the majority of these theories have focused on state versus state issues, a common paradigm of the 20th century, and not included state versus non-state issues, such as international terrorism. As NATO continues to be a post-Cold War, state alliance has it been able to transition to a relevant counter terrorism force and reduce the number of terrorist attacks within each member state, the alliance as a whole, and/or in the international community? With statistical data of terrorist attacks within NATO member states from the Global Terrorism Database this study focuses on each new member that joined during three influential time periods before and after the end of the Cold War in order to determine if becoming a member correlates to an increase or decrease in the number of terrorist attacks. -
Timeline of the Cold War
Timeline of the Cold War 1945 Defeat of Germany and Japan February 4-11: Yalta Conference meeting of FDR, Churchill, Stalin - the 'Big Three' Soviet Union has control of Eastern Europe. The Cold War Begins May 8: VE Day - Victory in Europe. Germany surrenders to the Red Army in Berlin July: Potsdam Conference - Germany was officially partitioned into four zones of occupation. August 6: The United States drops atomic bomb on Hiroshima (20 kiloton bomb 'Little Boy' kills 80,000) August 8: Russia declares war on Japan August 9: The United States drops atomic bomb on Nagasaki (22 kiloton 'Fat Man' kills 70,000) August 14 : Japanese surrender End of World War II August 15: Emperor surrender broadcast - VJ Day 1946 February 9: Stalin hostile speech - communism & capitalism were incompatible March 5 : "Sinews of Peace" Iron Curtain Speech by Winston Churchill - "an "iron curtain" has descended on Europe" March 10: Truman demands Russia leave Iran July 1: Operation Crossroads with Test Able was the first public demonstration of America's atomic arsenal July 25: America's Test Baker - underwater explosion 1947 Containment March 12 : Truman Doctrine - Truman declares active role in Greek Civil War June : Marshall Plan is announced setting a precedent for helping countries combat poverty, disease and malnutrition September 2: Rio Pact - U.S. meet 19 Latin American countries and created a security zone around the hemisphere 1948 Containment February 25 : Communist takeover in Czechoslovakia March 2: Truman's Loyalty Program created to catch Cold War -
US Nuclear Weapons
U.S. NUCLEAR DETERRENCE POLICY Today's Strategic Environment: Increasingly Complex and Dangerous For decades, the United States led the world in efforts to reduce the role and number of nuclear weapons. Successive treaties enabled reductions in accountable strategic U.S. nuclear warheads, first to 6,000, and ultimately to 1,550. Thousands of shorter-range nuclear weapons not covered by any treaty were almost entirely eliminated from the U.S. nuclear arsenal. Overall, the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile has drawn down by more than 85 percent from its Cold War high. Many hoped conditions had been set for even deeper reductions in global nuclear arsenals. Unfortunately, the United States and our allies now face a security environment with increased complexity and worsening strategic threats. Today’s central challenge to our security is the reemergence of long-term strategic competition with Russia and China. While the United States has focused on maintaining its existing nuclear systems, Russia and China have increased the role of nuclear weapons in their strategies and have been actively increasing the size and sophistication of their nuclear forces. Further, North Korea’s nuclear capabilities threaten our allies and homeland and add to an already complex strategic picture. Russia has been developing, testing, and fielding new systems for its nuclear triad over the past decade. This includes new road-mobile and silo-based ICBMs, ballistic missile submarines and missiles, bomber aircraft, and cruise missiles. Russia is also actively testing never-before-seen nuclear weapon capabilities, such as hypersonic glide vehicles, nuclear-powered cruise missiles, and nuclear-powered unmanned underwater vehicles. -
The Other Battleground of the Cold War the UN and the Struggle Against International Terrorism in the 1970S
BThlumenaue Other Battleground of the Cold War The Other Battleground of the Cold War The UN and the Struggle against International Terrorism in the 1970s ✣ Bernhard Blumenau The life span of an epidemic such as international terrorism depends largely on the response of the international community. When terrorists come to realize that their actions harm only themselves and their cause, the epidemic will subside.1 William P. Rogers, U.S. Secretary of State, 1973 Introduction Discussions of the Cold War often focus on high-proªle developments like the Berlin crises, the Cuban missile crisis, the proxy wars in Africa and Asia, the emergence and breakdown of East-West détente, and the Strategic Defense Initiative of the 1980s. But the Cold War also witnessed an intense spate of international terrorism. Although the September 2001 terrorist at- tacks in the United States were unique in claiming nearly 3,000 lives, interna- tional terrorism during the Cold War also caused extensive bloodshed and stoked widespread fear. The live broadcast of the deadly terrorist attack against Israeli athletes at the Munich Olympics in 1972 highlighted the im- portance of the issue, as did the terrorist hijacking of a French passenger air- craft to Uganda’s Entebbe airport in 1976. Terrorism long predated the Cold War, but there was something special about it during the prolonged U.S.- Soviet standoff. With a largely bipolar division of the international system, most terrorists in one way or another accommodated themselves to the Cold War. The infamous terrorist groups in Italy, West Germany, and Japan all sug- 1.