POLITICAL 13

Juan Ponce Enrile resigns as Senate President

preempted the inevitable – his replacement as Senate president in the next Congress – given the pro- administration senators’ dominance of the Upper Chamber, the various issues hurled against him, his opposition to the administration’s priority bills, his declining popularity and health due to old age (89).

enator Enrile is expected to be replaced anyway as administration senators will dominate the Upper Chamber Sthis 16th Congress. Of the 12 senators elected in the last midterm elections, 9 are from the administration line-up (Team PNOY) while only 3 are from the opposition-led United Nationalist Alliance (UNA). The 9 slots are enough for the administration senators to secure a strong –16 to 8 –majority in the next Congress and replace Senate President . And, importantly, get some crucial bills through. In his privilege speech announcing his irrevocable resignation, Sen. Enrile expressed his pain over the defeat of his son, Cagayan Representative Jack Enrile, in the May 13 elections. He attributed his son’s failed senate bid to issues thrown against him by his colleagues. Highlighting that his son wasn’t running based on his own expertise, but on his dad’s name.  Opposition to key reform bills endorsed by the Aquino The attacks on the veteran lawmaker started late last year when administration such as the Reproductive Health and Sin Sen. IV delivered a privilege speech accusing tax Reform (With only 3 years left, the administration Sen. Enrile of prioritizing certain bills to his advantage. Sen. Miriam will need a senate president more supportive of its Defensor-Santiago followed suit with an accusation that the senate legislative agenda) president was misusing the funds of the Senate as shown by his Rift with fellow senators (Cayetano siblings, Trillanes unequal distribution of cash gifts to the senators last December. lV, and Defensor-Santiago) The Wallace Business Forum predicted during its November Issues such as Port Irene smuggling and bogus non- 19 Quarterly Roundtable (QRT) that Senate President Juan government organization (NGO) benefi ciary Ponce Enrile will be replaced when the 16th Congress Declining satisfaction ratings convenes. Aside from the Upper Chamber being dominated by pro-administration senators, other factors cited by the WBF Old age (89 years old) that contributed to Sen.Enrile’s ouster were the following: Declining health

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SEN. ENRILE’S DECLINING ACCEPTANCE

1. Opposition to RH and Sin tax – With only 3 years left, the administration will need a Senate president more supportive of its legislative agenda 2. Issues against Enrile: Senate bonus, Port Irene “smuggling”, bogus NGO benefi ciary 3. Declining satisfaction ratings 4. Old age (89 years old), and declining health

SENATE PRESIDENCY: A COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE

3rd highest post in the land  3rd in the line of constitutional succession  Presiding Offi cer & CEO of the Senate  3 senate presidents have become presidents: Quezon, Roxas, Marcos  A strategic position to challenge the president on key issues  Plays a vital role in the administration’s preparations for the 2016 presidential elections

SENATOR DRILON ENRILE Angara, Juan Edgardo  Aquino, Paolo Benigno  Binay, Nancy  Cayetano, Alan  Cayetano, Pia  Drilon, Franklin  Enrile, Juan Ponce  Escudero, Francis  Estrada, Jinggoy  Estrada, Joseph Victor  Guingona, Teofi sto  Honasan, Gringo  Lapid, Manuel  Legarda, Loren  Marcos, Ferdinand Jr.  Osmeña, Sergio  Pimentel, Aquilino  Poe, Grace  Recto, Ralph  Revilla, Ramon  Santiago, Miriam  Sotto, Vicente  Trillanes, Antonio  Villar, Manuel  TOTAL 16 8

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Senator Enrile’s action only preempted the inevitable..

The Palace has confi rmed that Sen. is the administration/majority bloc’s candidate for senate president in the next Congress. Sen. Drilon also enjoys the support of the which has the most number of senators (5 – , , Alan Cayetnao, Jr. and Antonio Trillanes lV) in the Upper House. Sen. Alan Cayetano was previously mentioned as another choice for the senate presidency but has since pledged his support for Sen. Drilon. Sen. Drilon is expected to continue to support the legislative agenda of President Aquino as senate president. This early, he said he will push for the passage of the Bangsamoro Basic Law, Fiscal Incentives Rationalization, and Mining Act amendments (especially the proposed Mining Revenue bill) – 3 of president Aquino’s priority measures. However, just like president Aquino, Sen. Drilon also rejected calls to amend the Constitution. This despite an enormous need and clamor to revisit the Constitution, particularly its economic provisions. Business groups, both foreign and local, support the proposed amendments. Key economic sectors must be fully opened up to foreign investors. Doing so will send a strong signal that the is open for business and welcomes foreign direct investments (FDI) - FDIs that will provide jobs to around 11 million unemployed Filipinos and eventually help this administration achieve its goal of fostering inclusive growth, or economic growth that uplifts the lives of the poor.

Top offi cials’ satisfaction ratings drop

The March 2013 Social Weather Stations survey showed that the net satisfaction ratings of Vice President , Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, Speaker VP Binay continues to receive support from the masa Feliciano Belmonte, and Chief Justice Ma. Lourdes Sereno (masses) through a clever coalition with ex-president Joseph dropped compared to their December 2012 ratings. Among Estrada and ’s “sister cities” (an alliance he forged the country’s top offi cials only President Aquino bucked the when he was still the mayor of Makati City) nationwide. trend, receiving a net satisfaction rating of +59 from his Sen. ’s victory was greatly attributed to her being the previous rating of+55 . daughter of VP Binay. Despite her negligible political experience, Ms. Binay ranked 5th and received 16.8 million votes during The March 2013 survey revealed that Vice President Jejomar the midterm polls. This is an indication of VP Binay’s enormous Binay’s net satisfaction rating dropped to +62 from +70 in December political capital that he could use to boost his 2016 candidacy. 2012. Despite the decline, VP Binay still enjoys the highest rating The 2 heads of Congress, Speaker Sonny Belmonte and among the government’s top offi cials, even surpassing President Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, garnered low scores Aquino’s +59. This is 5 points higher than his lowest to-date despite the approval of popular and crucial measures such rating of +47 posted in November 2010. If the ‘undecided’ as the Sin Tax Reform and Reproductive Health (RH) are removed, VP Binay’s net satisfaction rating rises to +85 laws. Congress under the current administration has also VP Binay’s popularity is expected to remain high over the been able to pass the national budgets on time. Under the medium-term given his aggressive promotion of his popular, previous administration, national budgets were not approved pro-poor advocacies such as overseas Filipino workers’ (OFW) as scheduled so previous budgets had to be reenacted. welfare and mass housing. His daughter and newly-elected senator, Nancy Binay, is expected to propose measures in the Senate that will support his father’s advocacies, such as the creation of a Department of Housing and Urban Development which the Vice President aggressively endorsed in the previous Congress.

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VP Binay enormous political capital could boost his 2016 candidacy.

SATISFACTION RATINGS (%, WITHOUT THE “UNDECIDED”) OFFICIAL MARCH ’12 MAY ‘12 AUGUST ‘12 DECEMBER ‘12 MARCH ‘13 Binay 90 90 93 90 85 Enrile 84 80 90 80 69 Belmonte 65 56 67 62 60 Sereno 64 59

It’s glaring that Speaker Belmonte scores lower than the President Aquino’s priority bills. Also, Sen. Enrile seems to be too Senate President, Juan Ponce Enrile, despite the Speaker and old (89 years old) to handle the rigors of the senate presidency. the entire House of Representatives being more supportive of a One clear casualty of Sen. Enrile’s receding popularity is popular president’s legislative agenda, and achieving more than his son, UNA senatorial candidate and Cagayan representative the Senate was able. Speaker Belmonte’s ratings are expected to Jack Enrile. During the May-September 2012 period, Sen. improve as he uses his fresh mandate to endorse popular measures. Enrile’s approval and trust ratings hovered around 70%. His Sen. Enrile’s ratings are expected to wane further given the high popularity was attributed to his handling of Corona’s various issues hurled against him (unfair distribution of Senate impeachment trial and his vote to convict the then chief “bonus”, Port Irene smuggling, bogus NGO benefi ciary, etc) . magistrate. During that period, the younger Enrile ranked He has already resigned as Senate President, with Frank Drilon 4th-7th in surveys. In theFebruary to May 2013 pre-election the inevitable choice to replace him as the Aquino administration polls, Jack Enrile dropped out of the Top 12, placing 13th . will need a Senate President that is more supportive of its Interestingly, it was during this period (February-May 2013) legislative agenda. Recall that he strongly opposed the passage when SP Enrile’s satisfaction ratings declined signifi cantly. The of Reproductive Health and Sin Tax Reform measures, 2 of younger Enrile failed to make it to the winning circle in the May elections, placing 15th with an estimated 11.5 million votes. Chief Justice Maria Sereno’s ratings are almost identical to those of the Speaker, a net satisfaction rating of +9 (compared to Speaker Belmonte’s +11), down from +14 last December (Speaker Belmonte received a net +15). It’s interesting to see how the SC’s decision to put the implementation of the Reproductive Health bill (clearly a popular measure with 70% of the populace favoring its enactment) on hold would affect CJ Sereno’s popularity and that of the Supreme Court as a collegial body. CJ Sereno dissented on the issuance of the status quo ante order but she and 4 other justices were outvoted, 10-5. Prior to the midterm elections, the Supreme Court also issued a series of decisions that overturned Comelec rulings. In March the High Tribunal issued a temporary restraining order (TRO) that prevented the poll body from taking down the ‘Team Patay/Buhay’ (Dead/Alive) tarpaulin posted on the front wall of the Bacolod Cathedral. It also reinstated the 52

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Improvement of CJ Sereno’s ratings hinges on the implementation of reforms.

party-list groups earlier disqualifi ed by the Comelec. The poll 6 municipalities in Lanao del Norte, hundreds of villages in body had argued that the disqualifi ed groups do not represent the provinces of South Kudarat and North Cotabato, and parts the marginalized. The SC was criticized for its distorted of Palawan. The new entity will be known as Bangsamoro. defi nition of a party list. There’s also the SC’s issuance of On December 17, 2012, President Aquino issued Executive a TRO on the Comelec decision to impose a time limit on Order No. 120 which tasked the Transistion Commission to draft campaign advertisements in broadcast media. It’s interesting to the Bangsamoro Basic Law in accordance with the provisions see how these decisions will affect the Chief Justice’s ratings. of the 2012 Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro. CJ Sereno’s low satisfaction ratings can partly be explained by The Bangsamoro Basic Law is a major pre-requisite to the previous controversies that hounded the reliability of the Supreme government’s goal of concluding its peace talks with the MILF. Court as an institution. But ’s ouster was a required Of the total allotment, P17 million will fund the initial step toward strengthening the integrity of the Supreme Court, Transition Commission’s requirements for Personnel and of the country’s judiciary as a whole. The public’s perception Services while P25 million will be allotted for the of the High Tribunal should improve over the medium term. TC’s Maintenance and Other Operating Expenditures. Improvement of CJ Sereno’s trust and approval ratings The framework peace agreement signed by the government hinges on the implementation of reforms in the judiciary: hire and the MILF on October 15 has been generally well- more judges and court personnel and increase their pay; invite accepted. It is a major achievement of the Aquino government, experts or “friends of court” when deciding on business-related an achievement two previous administrations failed to cases; hear only constitutional and precedent-setting cases; achieve. Former president Estrada launched an “all out” and expedite the resolution of cases. If CJ Sereno wants her (unsuccessful) war. While Pres. Arroyo brokered a deal that was and the entire Supreme Court’s ratings to improve, she must eventually declared by the Supreme Court as unconstitutional. ensure that the fruits of these reforms will benefi t the poor. After 4 decades of Moro rebellion and more than 150,000 recorded deaths (including the death toll from skirmishes with other Muslim rebel groups), the signing of the peace framework and the drafting of a Bangsamoro basic law are Budget Dep’t releases funds for Bangsamoro certainly a welcome development, and there does seem to be body sincerity and a mutual trust that give hope it could succeed. With the signing of a draft framework now is the most The Department of Budget and Management (DBM) opportune time for the Aquino administration to intensify its has released P42 million to cover the initial operational development efforts in the confl ict areas of Mindanao: improve requirements of the Bangsamoro Transition Commission the delivery of basic social services; enforce the law; keep the (BTC). The BTC is tasked to draft the Basic Law of public safe; improve transparency in governance; and provide the proposed Bangsamoro Juridical Entity (BJE), with social justice. If these elements are in place, insurgencies become provisions that are in line with the framework agreement irrelevant. But putting them in place will be quite a challenge, and that was signed by the Philippine government and the Moro will be the real test of the success, or otherwise, of this agreement. Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in October. Congress approval is needed to ratify the proposed Bangsamoro Basic Law. But given President Aquino’s massive The BJE will cover the current Autonomous Region in political capital and overwhelming support from both chambers Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) that is composed of the provinces of Congress, the measure is expected to be approved this year. of Sulu, Basilan, Tawi-Tawi, Maguindanao and Lanao del Sur;

PH GOV’T-MILF PEACE TALKS: BACKGROUND & INSIGHTS The initial peace accord between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the government of the Philippines was signed on October 15 last year. The framework agreement comes 15 years after negotiations were started. In 1984 the MILF was formed to split away from the main body, the MNLF, as they did not agree with the conditions of the Tripoli Agreement that provided merely “nominal autonomy for the Bangsamoro” as they saw it. The breakaway group was formed by members who were disgruntled over what they thought was the MNLF’s departure from its religious roots, its secularist mindset, and surrendering of demands for autonomy. Independence from the national authority is something the WBF as a fundamental policy, does not agree with. There should be no separate societal conditions for one sector of society versus another, particularly one religion versus another. Giving one particular religion a special deal maybe, and should be unconstitutional. The Philippines is not a federal state so allowing a part of it to essentially be so is wrong. And giving preferences to a religious sect in a secular society equally wrong. However, the dominant role allowed of the Catholic Church does itself provide special treatment for one religion over others. So the Muslim position can be at least understood. It’s a political reality that must be taken into account.

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There’s then a 2 to 3-year transition period (to fulfi l the Despite the initial concerns raised by some sectors, the other steps such as holding of a plebiscite and promulgation government’s peace deal with the MILF coul happen. President and ratifi cation of the Bangsamoro Basic Law) that will Aquino can be given much credit for this. The massive support take the effectivity of the agreement into end-2015 or mid- from the populace added that level of trust that was missing in 2016. And that’s if everything goes well, something that previous attempts. But there’s many a slip tween cup and lip. rarely happens in the Philippines. Fortunately it should be sufficiently well developed by then that no matter who is next president it will not change the agreement.

PEACE ACCORD MAY BRING IN INVESTMENTS (FROM OCTOBER 2012 ANALYST) In order to achieve peace in the region, the signing of the new peace accord will need to lead to a substantial growth in investment, which has long eluded the area. Fortunately, the foreign and local business communities see the peace agreement as an encouragement to bring investment into the area. Investments are expected to come initially from Muslim countries, such as United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Malaysia. Investments from Europe, which has been providing offi cial development assistance (ODA) for a long time in Mindanao, could follow. The bulk of the investment is likely to be in the region’s agribusiness and infrastructure sectors. Investments from the Muslim countries are seen to transform barren agricultural lands into banana, pineapple, corn, and palm oil plantations. Felda Global Ventures and Berjaya, two of the largest crude palm oil producers in the world, have signifi ed interest in developing palm oil farms in the Bangsamoro region. Investments from European companies, on the other hand, are expected to develop international airports, which are crucial in promoting the region as a tourist destination.

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STATUS OF THE CREATION OF THE BANGSAMORO AUTONOMOUS POLTICAL ENTITY

STEP DONE?

1) Signing of Framework Agreement (FA) by both Parties Yes

2) Parties adopt an annex on the Transitional arrangements and modalities in the FA Yes

3) Transition Commission is formed via Executive Order (EO) Yes

4) Congress passes resolutions supporting the EO Yes

5) Transition Commission drafts Bangsamoro Basic Law bill Being Done

6) Bangsamoro Basic Law Bill is submitted to Congress Not Yet

7) Bill is certifi ed urgent by the President Not Yet

8) Congressional Action on the Bangsamoro Basic law Bill Not Yet

9) Bangsamoro Basic Law Bill is submitted to the President for approval Not Yet

10) Two months prior to the plebiscite and ratifi cation, contiguous localities may opt to join by a petition Not Yet of 10% of registered voters in the area

11) A plebiscite is held for the ratifi cation of the law Not Yet

12) Promulgation and ratifi cation of the Bangsamoro Basic Law Not Yet

13) A Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA) is created, ARMM is abolished; all devolved authorities are vested in the BTA Not Yet

14) A ministerial form and Cabinet system of governemnt will commence once the BTA is in place Not Yet 15) The BTA is replaced upon the election and assumption of the members of the Bangsamoro legislative assembly and the formation of the Bangsamoro government Not Yet

Philippine ANALYST May 2013