POLITICAL 13 Juan Ponce Enrile resigns as Senate President preempted the inevitable – his replacement as Senate president in the next Congress – given the pro- administration senators’ dominance of the Upper Chamber, the various issues hurled against him, his opposition to the administration’s priority bills, his declining popularity and health due to old age (89). enator Enrile is expected to be replaced anyway as administration senators will dominate the Upper Chamber Sthis 16th Congress. Of the 12 senators elected in the last midterm elections, 9 are from the administration line-up (Team PNOY) while only 3 are from the opposition-led United Nationalist Alliance (UNA). The 9 slots are enough for the administration senators to secure a strong –16 to 8 –majority in the next Congress and replace Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile. And, importantly, get some crucial bills through. In his privilege speech announcing his irrevocable resignation, Sen. Enrile expressed his pain over the defeat of his son, Cagayan Representative Jack Enrile, in the May 13 elections. He attributed his son’s failed senate bid to issues thrown against him by his colleagues. Highlighting that his son wasn’t running based on his own expertise, but on his dad’s name. Opposition to key reform bills endorsed by the Aquino The attacks on the veteran lawmaker started late last year when administration such as the Reproductive Health and Sin Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV delivered a privilege speech accusing tax Reform (With only 3 years left, the administration Sen. Enrile of prioritizing certain bills to his advantage. Sen. Miriam will need a senate president more supportive of its Defensor-Santiago followed suit with an accusation that the senate legislative agenda) president was misusing the funds of the Senate as shown by his Rift with fellow senators (Cayetano siblings, Trillanes unequal distribution of cash gifts to the senators last December. lV, and Defensor-Santiago) The Wallace Business Forum predicted during its November Issues such as Port Irene smuggling and bogus non- 19 Quarterly Roundtable (QRT) that Senate President Juan government organization (NGO) benefi ciary Ponce Enrile will be replaced when the 16th Congress Declining satisfaction ratings convenes. Aside from the Upper Chamber being dominated by pro-administration senators, other factors cited by the WBF Old age (89 years old) that contributed to Sen.Enrile’s ouster were the following: Declining health Philippine ANALYST May 2013 14 POLITICAL SEN. ENRILE’S DECLINING ACCEPTANCE 1. Opposition to RH and Sin tax – With only 3 years left, the administration will need a Senate president more supportive of its legislative agenda 2. Issues against Enrile: Senate bonus, Port Irene “smuggling”, bogus NGO benefi ciary 3. Declining satisfaction ratings 4. Old age (89 years old), and declining health SENATE PRESIDENCY: A COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE 3rd highest post in the land 3rd in the line of constitutional succession Presiding Offi cer & CEO of the Senate 3 senate presidents have become presidents: Quezon, Roxas, Marcos A strategic position to challenge the president on key issues Plays a vital role in the administration’s preparations for the 2016 presidential elections SENATOR DRILON ENRILE Angara, Juan Edgardo Aquino, Paolo Benigno Binay, Nancy Cayetano, Alan Cayetano, Pia Drilon, Franklin Enrile, Juan Ponce Escudero, Francis Estrada, Jinggoy Estrada, Joseph Victor Guingona, Teofi sto Honasan, Gringo Lapid, Manuel Legarda, Loren Marcos, Ferdinand Jr. Osmeña, Sergio Pimentel, Aquilino Poe, Grace Recto, Ralph Revilla, Ramon Santiago, Miriam Sotto, Vicente Trillanes, Antonio Villar, Manuel TOTAL 16 8 Philippine ANALYST May 2013 POLITICAL 151 Senator Enrile’s action only preempted the inevitable.. The Palace has confi rmed that Sen. Franklin Drilon is the administration/majority bloc’s candidate for senate president in the next Congress. Sen. Drilon also enjoys the support of the Nacionalista Party which has the most number of senators (5 – Cynthia Villar, Pia Cayetano, Alan Cayetnao, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Antonio Trillanes lV) in the Upper House. Sen. Alan Cayetano was previously mentioned as another choice for the senate presidency but has since pledged his support for Sen. Drilon. Sen. Drilon is expected to continue to support the legislative agenda of President Aquino as senate president. This early, he said he will push for the passage of the Bangsamoro Basic Law, Fiscal Incentives Rationalization, and Mining Act amendments (especially the proposed Mining Revenue bill) – 3 of president Aquino’s priority measures. However, just like president Aquino, Sen. Drilon also rejected calls to amend the Constitution. This despite an enormous need and clamor to revisit the Constitution, particularly its economic provisions. Business groups, both foreign and local, support the proposed amendments. Key economic sectors must be fully opened up to foreign investors. Doing so will send a strong signal that the Philippines is open for business and welcomes foreign direct investments (FDI) - FDIs that will provide jobs to around 11 million unemployed Filipinos and eventually help this administration achieve its goal of fostering inclusive growth, or economic growth that uplifts the lives of the poor. Top offi cials’ satisfaction ratings drop The March 2013 Social Weather Stations survey showed that the net satisfaction ratings of Vice President Jejomar Binay, Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, Speaker VP Binay continues to receive support from the masa Feliciano Belmonte, and Chief Justice Ma. Lourdes Sereno (masses) through a clever coalition with ex-president Joseph dropped compared to their December 2012 ratings. Among Estrada and Makati’s “sister cities” (an alliance he forged the country’s top offi cials only President Aquino bucked the when he was still the mayor of Makati City) nationwide. trend, receiving a net satisfaction rating of +59 from his Sen. Nancy Binay’s victory was greatly attributed to her being the previous rating of+55 . daughter of VP Binay. Despite her negligible political experience, Ms. Binay ranked 5th and received 16.8 million votes during The March 2013 survey revealed that Vice President Jejomar the midterm polls. This is an indication of VP Binay’s enormous Binay’s net satisfaction rating dropped to +62 from +70 in December political capital that he could use to boost his 2016 candidacy. 2012. Despite the decline, VP Binay still enjoys the highest rating The 2 heads of Congress, Speaker Sonny Belmonte and among the government’s top offi cials, even surpassing President Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile, garnered low scores Aquino’s +59. This is 5 points higher than his lowest to-date despite the approval of popular and crucial measures such rating of +47 posted in November 2010. If the ‘undecided’ as the Sin Tax Reform and Reproductive Health (RH) are removed, VP Binay’s net satisfaction rating rises to +85 laws. Congress under the current administration has also VP Binay’s popularity is expected to remain high over the been able to pass the national budgets on time. Under the medium-term given his aggressive promotion of his popular, previous administration, national budgets were not approved pro-poor advocacies such as overseas Filipino workers’ (OFW) as scheduled so previous budgets had to be reenacted. welfare and mass housing. His daughter and newly-elected senator, Nancy Binay, is expected to propose measures in the Senate that will support his father’s advocacies, such as the creation of a Department of Housing and Urban Development which the Vice President aggressively endorsed in the previous Congress. Philippine ANALYST May 2013 16 POLITICAL VP Binay enormous political capital could boost his 2016 candidacy. SATISFACTION RATINGS (%, WITHOUT THE “UNDECIDED”) OFFICIAL MARCH ’12 MAY ‘12 AUGUST ‘12 DECEMBER ‘12 MARCH ‘13 Binay 90 90 93 90 85 Enrile 84 80 90 80 69 Belmonte 65 56 67 62 60 Sereno 64 59 It’s glaring that Speaker Belmonte scores lower than the President Aquino’s priority bills. Also, Sen. Enrile seems to be too Senate President, Juan Ponce Enrile, despite the Speaker and old (89 years old) to handle the rigors of the senate presidency. the entire House of Representatives being more supportive of a One clear casualty of Sen. Enrile’s receding popularity is popular president’s legislative agenda, and achieving more than his son, UNA senatorial candidate and Cagayan representative the Senate was able. Speaker Belmonte’s ratings are expected to Jack Enrile. During the May-September 2012 period, Sen. improve as he uses his fresh mandate to endorse popular measures. Enrile’s approval and trust ratings hovered around 70%. His Sen. Enrile’s ratings are expected to wane further given the high popularity was attributed to his handling of Corona’s various issues hurled against him (unfair distribution of Senate impeachment trial and his vote to convict the then chief “bonus”, Port Irene smuggling, bogus NGO benefi ciary, etc) . magistrate. During that period, the younger Enrile ranked He has already resigned as Senate President, with Frank Drilon 4th-7th in surveys. In theFebruary to May 2013 pre-election the inevitable choice to replace him as the Aquino administration polls, Jack Enrile dropped out of the Top 12, placing 13th . will need a Senate President that is more supportive of its Interestingly, it was during this period (February-May 2013) legislative agenda. Recall that he strongly opposed the passage when SP Enrile’s satisfaction ratings declined signifi cantly. The of Reproductive Health and Sin Tax Reform measures, 2 of younger Enrile failed to make it to the winning circle in the May elections, placing 15th with an estimated 11.5 million votes. Chief Justice Maria Sereno’s ratings are almost identical to those of the Speaker, a net satisfaction rating of +9 (compared to Speaker Belmonte’s +11), down from +14 last December (Speaker Belmonte received a net +15). It’s interesting to see how the SC’s decision to put the implementation of the Reproductive Health bill (clearly a popular measure with 70% of the populace favoring its enactment) on hold would affect CJ Sereno’s popularity and that of the Supreme Court as a collegial body.