An Extension of the Half-Normal Distribution

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

An Extension of the Half-Normal Distribution An extension of the half-normal distribution Neveka M. Olmos ¤ H¶ectorVarelay H¶ectorW. G¶omezz Heleno Bolfarinex Abstract In this work we introduce a new distribution, namely, the slashed half-normal distribution and it can be seen as an extension of the half-normal distribution. It is shown that the resulting distribution has more kurtosis than the ordinary half-normal distribution. Mo- ments and some properties are derived for the new distribution. Mo- ment estimators and maximum likelihood estimators can computed using numerical procedures. Results of two real data application are reported where model ¯tting is implemented by using maximum like- lihood estimation. KEY WORDS: Half-normal distribution, slash distribution, slashed half-normal distribution, kurtosis. ¤Departamento de Matem¶aticas,Facultad de Ciencias B¶asicas,Universidad de Antofa- gasta, Antofagasta, Chile. e-mail: [email protected] yDepartamento de Matem¶aticas,Facultad de Ciencias B¶asicas,Universidad de Antofa- gasta, Antofagasta, Chile. e-mail: [email protected] zDepartamento de Matem¶aticas,Facultad de Ciencias B¶asicas,Universidad de Antofa- gasta, Antofagasta, Chile. e-mail: [email protected] xDepartamento de Estat¶³stica,IME, Universidad de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brasil. e- mail: [email protected] X CONGRESO LATINOAMERICANO DE SOCIEDADES DE ESTAD¶ISTICA CORDOBA,¶ ARGENTINA, 16 A 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2012 1 Introduction A distribution closely related to the normal distribution is the slash distribu- tion. It can be represented as the quotient between to independent random variables, a normal one (numerator) and the power of a uniform (0; 1) dis- tribution (denominator). Hence, we can say that a random variable S has a slash distribution if it can be represented as 1 S = Z=U q ; (1) where Z » N(0; 1), independent of U » U(0; 1) and q > 0. In particular, as q ! 1, the standard normal distribution follows. On the other hand, if q = 1, we obtain the canonic (standard) slash distribution, with density function given by 8 < Á(0)¡Á(x) x 6= 0 p(x) = x2 (2) : 1 2 Á(0) x = 0; where Á represents the density function of the standard normal distribution (Johnson, Kotz and Balakrishnan 1995). It is well known that this dis- tribution presents heavier tails than the normal one that is, it has greater kurtosis. Properties of this family are studied in Rogers and Tukey (1972) and Mosteller and Tukey (1977). Maximum likelihood estimators for the location scale case are studied in Kafadar (1982). Wang and Genton (2006) developed a multivariate version and also an asymmetric multivariate ver- sion studying its properties and inference. G¶omez et al. (2007) and G¶omez and Venegas (2008) extends the slash distribution by introducing the slash- elliptical family. Asymmetric versions of this family are discussed in works of Arslan (2008). Arslan and Genc (2009) discussed a symmetric extension of the multivariate slash distribution and Genc (2007) discussed a symmetric X CONGRESO LATINOAMERICANO DE SOCIEDADES DE ESTAD¶ISTICA CORDOBA,¶ ARGENTINA, 16 A 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2012 univariate generalization of the slash distribution. Arslan (2009) has also studied the ML estimation for the parameters of the skew slash distribution introduced in Arslan (2008). G¶omez et al. (2009) use the slash-elliptical family to extend the Birnbaum-Saunders distribution. 2 Incorporating Kurtosis 2.1 Stochastic representation We consider that the random variable Z has a slashed half-normal distribu- tion with parameters σ and q if it can be represented as the ratio X Z = (3) Y 1=q where X » HN(σ) and Y » U(0; 1) are independent, σ > 0, q > 0. We denote this by writing Z » SHN(σ; q). 2.2 Density function Let Z » SHN(σ; q). Then, the pdf of Z is given by r µ ¶ 2q 1 f (z; σ; q) = q σq¡((q + 1)=2)z¡(q+1)G z2; (q + 1)=2; (4) Z ¼ 2σ2 where σ > 0, q > 0, z > 0 and G is the cumulative cdf of the gamma distribution. X CONGRESO LATINOAMERICANO DE SOCIEDADES DE ESTAD¶ISTICA CORDOBA,¶ ARGENTINA, 16 A 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2012 2.3 Moments Let Z » SHN(σ; q). Then, for r = 1; 2; ::: and q > r it follows that the r-th distributional moment is given by r µ ¶ q 2r r + 1 ¹ = E(Zr) = ¡ σr (5) r q ¡ r ¼ 2 3 Inference 3.1 Maximum Likelihood Given a random sample Z1;:::;Zn from the distribution of SHN(σ; q), the maximum likelihood equations are given by Xn G (z2) nq 1 i = ¡ (6) G(z2) σ i=1 i n n n q + 1 Xn G (z2) Xn + log(2) + nlog(σ) + Ã( ) + 2 i = log(z ) (7) q 2 2 2 G(z2) i i=1 i i=1 2 2 q+1 1 2 d 2 2 d 2 where G(zi ) = G(zi ; 2 ; 2σ2 ), G1(zi ) = dσ G(zi ), G2(zi ) = dq G(zi ) and à is the digamma function. 4 Illustration We consider a data set of the life of fatigue fracture of Kevlar 49/epoxy that are subject to constant pressure at the 90% stress level until all had failed, so we have complete data with the exact times of failure. For previous studies with the data sets see Andrews and Herzberg (1985) and Barlow et al. (1984). X CONGRESO LATINOAMERICANO DE SOCIEDADES DE ESTAD¶ISTICA CORDOBA,¶ ARGENTINA, 16 A 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2012 Table 1: Parameter estimates (with (SD) indicating standard deviation) and log-likelihood values for HN and SHN models for the stress-rupture life data set. Parameter estimates HN(SD) SHN(SD) σ 1:514(0:107) 0:802(0:111) q ¡ 2:567(0:691) AIC 232:34 210:26 References [1] Arslan, O. 2008. \An Alternative Multivariate Skew-Slash Distribution". Statistics and Probability Letters 78(16), 2756-2761. [2] Arslan, O. 2009. \Maximum likelihood parameter estimation for the mul- tivariate skew-slash distribution". Statistics and Probability Letters 79, 2158-2165. [3] Arslan, O. and Genc, A.I. 2009. \A Generalization of the Multivariate Slash Distribution". Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 139(3), 1164-1170. [4] Barlow, R. E., Toland, R. H., Freeman, T. 1984. A Bayesian analysis of stress-rupture life of kevlar 49/epoxy spherical pressure vessels, In: Proc. Canad. Conf. Appl. Statist. New York: Marcel Dekker. [5] Genc, A.I. 2007. \A Generalization of the Univariate Slash by a Scale- Mixture Exponential Power Distribution". Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation 36(5), 937-947. X CONGRESO LATINOAMERICANO DE SOCIEDADES DE ESTAD¶ISTICA CORDOBA,¶ ARGENTINA, 16 A 19 DE OCTUBRE DE 2012 [6] G¶omez,H. W., Olivares-Pacheco, J. F., Bolfarine, H. 2009. An extension of the generalized Birnbaum-Saunders distribution. Statistics and Proba- bility Letters. 79(3), 331-338. [7] G¶omez,H. W., Quintana, F. A. and Torres, F. J. 2007. New Family of Slash-Distributions with Elliptical Contours. Statistics and Probability Letters. 77(7), 717-725. [8] G¶omez,H.W. and Venegas, O. 2008. \Erratum to: A New Family of Slash-Distributions with Elliptical Contours [Statist. Probab. Lett. 77 (2007) 717-725]". Statistics and Probability Letters. 78(14), 2273-2274. [9] Jonhson, N.L., Kotz, S., and Balakrishnan, N. 1995. Continuous univari- ate distributions, Vol 1, 2nd edn. New York: Wiley. [10] Kafadar, K. 1982. A biweight approach to the one-sample problem. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 77, 416-424. [11] Mosteller, F., Tukey, J.W. 1977. Data analysis and regression. Addison- Wesley, Reading, MA. [12] Rogers, W.H., Tukey, J.W. 1972. Understanding some long-tailed sym- metrical distributions. Statist. Neerlandica. 26, 211-226. [13] Wang, J., Genton, M.G. 2006. The multivariate skew-slash distribution. Journal Statistical Planning and Inference. 136, 209-220..
Recommended publications
  • On the Computation of Multivariate Scenario Sets for the Skew-T and Generalized Hyperbolic Families Arxiv:1402.0686V1 [Math.ST]
    On the Computation of Multivariate Scenario Sets for the Skew-t and Generalized Hyperbolic Families Emanuele Giorgi1;2, Alexander J. McNeil3;4 February 5, 2014 Abstract We examine the problem of computing multivariate scenarios sets for skewed distributions. Our interest is motivated by the potential use of such sets in the stress testing of insurance companies and banks whose solvency is dependent on changes in a set of financial risk factors. We define multivariate scenario sets based on the notion of half-space depth (HD) and also introduce the notion of expectile depth (ED) where half-spaces are defined by expectiles rather than quantiles. We then use the HD and ED functions to define convex scenario sets that generalize the concepts of quantile and expectile to higher dimensions. In the case of elliptical distributions these sets coincide with the regions encompassed by the contours of the density function. In the context of multivariate skewed distributions, the equivalence of depth contours and density contours does not hold in general. We consider two parametric families that account for skewness and heavy tails: the generalized hyperbolic and the skew- t distributions. By making use of a canonical form representation, where skewness is completely absorbed by one component, we show that the HD contours of these distributions are near-elliptical and, in the case of the skew-Cauchy distribution, we prove that the HD contours are exactly elliptical. We propose a measure of multivariate skewness as a deviation from angular symmetry and show that it can explain the quality of the elliptical approximation for the HD contours.
    [Show full text]
  • A Formulation for Continuous Mixtures of Multivariate Normal Distributions
    A formulation for continuous mixtures of multivariate normal distributions Reinaldo B. Arellano-Valle Adelchi Azzalini Departamento de Estadística Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile Università di Padova Chile Italia 31st March 2020 Abstract Several formulations have long existed in the literature in the form of continuous mixtures of normal variables where a mixing variable operates on the mean or on the variance or on both the mean and the variance of a multivariate normal variable, by changing the nature of these basic constituents from constants to random quantities. More recently, other mixture-type constructions have been introduced, where the core random component, on which the mixing operation oper- ates, is not necessarily normal. The main aim of the present work is to show that many existing constructions can be encompassed by a formulation where normal variables are mixed using two univariate random variables. For this formulation, we derive various general properties. Within the proposed framework, it is also simpler to formulate new proposals of parametric families and we provide a few such instances. At the same time, the exposition provides a review of the theme of normal mixtures. Key-words: location-scale mixtures, mixtures of normal distribution. arXiv:2003.13076v1 [math.PR] 29 Mar 2020 1 1 Continuous mixtures of normal distributions In the last few decades, a number of formulations have been put forward, in the context of distribution theory, where a multivariate normal variable represents the basic constituent but with the superpos- ition of another random component, either in the sense that the normal mean value or the variance matrix or both these components are subject to the effect of another random variable of continuous type.
    [Show full text]
  • Idescat. SORT. an Extension of the Slash-Elliptical Distribution. Volume 38
    Statistics & Operations Research Transactions Statistics & Operations Research c SORT 38 (2) July-December 2014, 215-230 Institut d’Estad´ısticaTransactions de Catalunya ISSN: 1696-2281 [email protected] eISSN: 2013-8830 www.idescat.cat/sort/ An extension of the slash-elliptical distribution Mario A. Rojas1, Heleno Bolfarine2 and Hector´ W. Gomez´ 3 Abstract This paper introduces an extension of the slash-elliptical distribution. This new distribution is gen- erated as the quotient between two independent random variables, one from the elliptical family (numerator) and the other (denominator) a beta distribution. The resulting slash-elliptical distribu- tion potentially has a larger kurtosis coefficient than the ordinary slash-elliptical distribution. We investigate properties of this distribution such as moments and closed expressions for the density function. Moreover, an extension is proposed for the location scale situation. Likelihood equations are derived for this more general version. Results of a real data application reveal that the pro- posed model performs well, so that it is a viable alternative to replace models with lesser kurtosis flexibility. We also propose a multivariate extension. MSC: 60E05. Keywords: Slash distribution, elliptical distribution, kurtosis. 1. Introduction A distribution closely related to the normal distribution is the slash distribution. This distribution can be represented as the quotient between two independent random vari- ables, a normal one (numerator) and the power of a uniform distribution (denominator). To be more specific, we say that a random variable S follows a slash distribution if it can be written as 1 S = Z/U q , (1) 1 Departamento de Matematicas,´ Facultad de Ciencias Basicas,´ Universidad de Antofagasta, Antofagasta, Chile.
    [Show full text]
  • Slashed Rayleigh Distribution
    Revista Colombiana de Estadística January 2015, Volume 38, Issue 1, pp. 31 to 44 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15446/rce.v38n1.48800 Slashed Rayleigh Distribution Distribución Slashed Rayleigh Yuri A. Iriarte1;a, Héctor W. Gómez2;b, Héctor Varela2;c, Heleno Bolfarine3;d 1Instituto Tecnológico, Universidad de Atacama, Copiapó, Chile 2Departamento de Matemáticas, Facultad de Ciencias Básicas, Universidad de Antofagasta, Antofagasta, Chile 3Departamento de Estatística, Instituto de Matemática y Estatística, Universidad de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brasil Abstract In this article we study a subfamily of the slashed-Weibull family. This subfamily can be seen as an extension of the Rayleigh distribution with more flexibility in terms of the kurtosis of distribution. This special feature makes the extension suitable for fitting atypical observations. It arises as the ratio of two independent random variables, the one in the numerator being a Rayleigh distribution and a power of the uniform distribution in the denominator. We study some probability properties, discuss maximum likelihood estimation and present real data applications indicating that the slashed-Rayleigh distribution can improve the ordinary Rayleigh distribution in fitting real data. Key words: Kurtosis, Rayleigh Distribution, Slashed-elliptical Distribu- tions, Slashed-Rayleigh Distribution, Slashed-Weibull Distribution, Weibull Distribution. Resumen En este artículo estudiamos una subfamilia de la familia slashed-Weibull. Esta subfamilia puede ser vista como una extensión de la distribución Ray- leigh con más flexibilidad en cuanto a la kurtosis de la distribución. Esta particularidad hace que la extensión sea adecuada para ajustar observa- ciones atípicas. Esto surge como la razón de dos variables aleatorias in- dependientes, una en el numerador siendo una distribución Rayleigh y una aLecturer.
    [Show full text]
  • Bayesian Measurement Error Models Using Finite Mixtures of Scale
    Bayesian Measurement Error Models Using Finite Mixtures of Scale Mixtures of Skew-Normal Distributions Celso Rômulo Barbosa Cabral ∗ Nelson Lima de Souza Jeremias Leão Departament of Statistics, Federal University of Amazonas, Brazil Abstract We present a proposal to deal with the non-normality issue in the context of regression models with measurement errors when both the response and the explanatory variable are observed with error. We extend the normal model by jointly modeling the unobserved covariate and the random errors by a finite mixture of scale mixture of skew-normal distributions. This approach allows us to model data with great flexibility, accommodating skewness, heavy tails, and multi-modality. Keywords Bayesian estimation, finite mixtures, MCMC, skew normal distribution, scale mixtures of skew normal 1 Introduction and Motivation Let us consider the problem of modeling the relationship between two random variables y and x through a linear regression model, that is, y = α + βx, where α and β are parameters to be estimated. Supposing that these variables are unobservable, we assume that what we actually observe is X = x + ζ, and Y = y + e, where ζ and e are random errors. This is the so-called measurement error (ME) model. There is a vast literature regarding the inferential aspects of these kinds of models. Comprehensive reviews can be found in Fuller (1987), Cheng & Van Ness (1999) and Carroll et al. (2006). In general it is assumed that the variables x, ζ and e are inde- pendent and normally distributed. However, there are situations when the true distribution of the latent variable x departs from normality; that is the case when skewness, outliers and multimodality are present.
    [Show full text]
  • Field Guide to Continuous Probability Distributions
    Field Guide to Continuous Probability Distributions Gavin E. Crooks v 1.0.0 2019 G. E. Crooks – Field Guide to Probability Distributions v 1.0.0 Copyright © 2010-2019 Gavin E. Crooks ISBN: 978-1-7339381-0-5 http://threeplusone.com/fieldguide Berkeley Institute for Theoretical Sciences (BITS) typeset on 2019-04-10 with XeTeX version 0.99999 fonts: Trump Mediaeval (text), Euler (math) 271828182845904 2 G. E. Crooks – Field Guide to Probability Distributions Preface: The search for GUD A common problem is that of describing the probability distribution of a single, continuous variable. A few distributions, such as the normal and exponential, were discovered in the 1800’s or earlier. But about a century ago the great statistician, Karl Pearson, realized that the known probabil- ity distributions were not sufficient to handle all of the phenomena then under investigation, and set out to create new distributions with useful properties. During the 20th century this process continued with abandon and a vast menagerie of distinct mathematical forms were discovered and invented, investigated, analyzed, rediscovered and renamed, all for the purpose of de- scribing the probability of some interesting variable. There are hundreds of named distributions and synonyms in current usage. The apparent diver- sity is unending and disorienting. Fortunately, the situation is less confused than it might at first appear. Most common, continuous, univariate, unimodal distributions can be orga- nized into a small number of distinct families, which are all special cases of a single Grand Unified Distribution. This compendium details these hun- dred or so simple distributions, their properties and their interrelations.
    [Show full text]
  • Modified Slash Birnbaum-Saunders Distribution
    Modified slash Birnbaum-Saunders distribution Jimmy Reyes∗ , Filidor Vilcay, Diego I. Gallardoz and H´ectorW. G´omezx{ Abstract In this paper, we introduce an extension for the Birnbaum-Saunders (BS) distribution based on the modified slash (MS) distribution pro- posed by [12]. This new family of BS type distributions is obtained by replacing the usual normal distribution with the quotient of two independent random variables, one being a normal distribution in the numerator and the power of a exponential of parameter equal to two at the denominator. The resulting distribution is an extension of the BS distribution that has greater kurtosis values than the usual BS distri- bution and the slash Birnbaum-Saunders (SBS) distribution (see [7]). Moments and some properties are derived for the new distribution. Also, we draw inferences by the method of moments and maximum likelihood. A real data application is presented where the model fit- ting is implemented by using maximum likelihood estimation producing better results than the classic BS model and slash BS model. Keywords: Birnbaum-Saunders distribution, Modified slash distribution, Mo- ments; Kurtosis, EM-algorithm. 2000 AMS Classification: 60E05 1. Introduction The Birnbaum Saunders (BS) distribution (see [3] and [4]) was derived to model the material fatigue failure time process, and has been widely applied in reliability and fatigue studies. Extensive work has been done on the BS model with regard to its properties, inferences and applications. Generalizations of the BS distribution have been proposed by many authors; see for example, [6], [15], [7] and [2] among others, which allow obtaining a high degree of flexibility for this distribution.
    [Show full text]
  • On the Arcsecant Hyperbolic Normal Distribution. Properties, Quantile Regression Modeling and Applications
    S S symmetry Article On the Arcsecant Hyperbolic Normal Distribution. Properties, Quantile Regression Modeling and Applications Mustafa Ç. Korkmaz 1 , Christophe Chesneau 2,* and Zehra Sedef Korkmaz 3 1 Department of Measurement and Evaluation, Artvin Çoruh University, City Campus, Artvin 08000, Turkey; [email protected] 2 Laboratoire de Mathématiques Nicolas Oresme, University of Caen-Normandie, 14032 Caen, France 3 Department of Curriculum and Instruction Program, Artvin Çoruh University, City Campus, Artvin 08000, Turkey; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Abstract: This work proposes a new distribution defined on the unit interval. It is obtained by a novel transformation of a normal random variable involving the hyperbolic secant function and its inverse. The use of such a function in distribution theory has not received much attention in the literature, and may be of interest for theoretical and practical purposes. Basic statistical properties of the newly defined distribution are derived, including moments, skewness, kurtosis and order statistics. For the related model, the parametric estimation is examined through different methods. We assess the performance of the obtained estimates by two complementary simulation studies. Also, the quantile regression model based on the proposed distribution is introduced. Applications to three real datasets show that the proposed models are quite competitive in comparison to well-established models. Keywords: bounded distribution; unit hyperbolic normal distribution; hyperbolic secant function; normal distribution; point estimates; quantile regression; better life index; dyslexia; IQ; reading accu- racy modeling Citation: Korkmaz, M.Ç.; Chesneau, C.; Korkmaz, Z.S. On the Arcsecant Hyperbolic Normal Distribution. 1. Introduction Properties, Quantile Regression Over the past twenty years, many statisticians and researchers have focused on propos- Modeling and Applications.
    [Show full text]
  • Package 'Extradistr'
    Package ‘extraDistr’ September 7, 2020 Type Package Title Additional Univariate and Multivariate Distributions Version 1.9.1 Date 2020-08-20 Author Tymoteusz Wolodzko Maintainer Tymoteusz Wolodzko <[email protected]> Description Density, distribution function, quantile function and random generation for a number of univariate and multivariate distributions. This package implements the following distributions: Bernoulli, beta-binomial, beta-negative binomial, beta prime, Bhattacharjee, Birnbaum-Saunders, bivariate normal, bivariate Poisson, categorical, Dirichlet, Dirichlet-multinomial, discrete gamma, discrete Laplace, discrete normal, discrete uniform, discrete Weibull, Frechet, gamma-Poisson, generalized extreme value, Gompertz, generalized Pareto, Gumbel, half-Cauchy, half-normal, half-t, Huber density, inverse chi-squared, inverse-gamma, Kumaraswamy, Laplace, location-scale t, logarithmic, Lomax, multivariate hypergeometric, multinomial, negative hypergeometric, non-standard beta, normal mixture, Poisson mixture, Pareto, power, reparametrized beta, Rayleigh, shifted Gompertz, Skellam, slash, triangular, truncated binomial, truncated normal, truncated Poisson, Tukey lambda, Wald, zero-inflated binomial, zero-inflated negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson. License GPL-2 URL https://github.com/twolodzko/extraDistr BugReports https://github.com/twolodzko/extraDistr/issues Encoding UTF-8 LazyData TRUE Depends R (>= 3.1.0) LinkingTo Rcpp 1 2 R topics documented: Imports Rcpp Suggests testthat, LaplacesDemon, VGAM, evd, hoa,
    [Show full text]
  • Ebookdistributions.Pdf
    DOWNLOAD YOUR FREE MODELRISK TRIAL Adapted from Risk Analysis: a quantitative guide by David Vose. Published by John Wiley and Sons (2008). All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except under the terms of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 or under the terms of a licence issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency Ltd, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4LP, UK, without the permission in writing of the Publisher. If you notice any errors or omissions, please contact [email protected] Referencing this document Please use the following reference, following the Harvard system of referencing: Van Hauwermeiren M, Vose D and Vanden Bossche S (2012). A Compendium of Distributions (second edition). [ebook]. Vose Software, Ghent, Belgium. Available from www.vosesoftware.com . Accessed dd/mm/yy. © Vose Software BVBA (2012) www.vosesoftware.com Updated 17 January, 2012. Page 2 Table of Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................... 7 DISCRETE AND CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTIONS.......................................................................... 7 Discrete Distributions .............................................................................................. 7 Continuous Distributions ........................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Robust Bayesian Analysis of Heavy-Tailed Stochastic Volatility Models Using Scale Mixtures of Normal Distributions
    Robust Bayesian Analysis of Heavy-tailed Stochastic Volatility Models using Scale Mixtures of Normal Distributions C. A. Abanto-Valle∗,a, D. Bandyopadhyayb, V. H. Lachosc, I. Enriquezd aDepartment of Statistics, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, CEP: 21945-970, Brazil bDepartment of Biostatistics, Bioinformatics and Epidemiology, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC, USA cDepartment of Statistics, Campinas State University, Brazil dDepartment of Statistics, S~aoPaulo State University, Brazil Abstract This paper consider a Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models using a class of symmetric normal scale mixtures, which provides an appealing robust alter- native to the routine use of the normal distribution in this type of models. Specific distributions examined include the normal, the Student-t, the slash and the variance gamma distribution which are obtained as a sub-class of our proposed class of mod- els. Using a Bayesian paradigm, we explore an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for parameter estimation in this model. Moreover, the mixing parameters obtained as a by-product of the scale mixture representation can be used to identify possible outliers. The methods developed are applied to analyze daily stock returns data on S&P500 index. We conclude that our proposed rich class of normal scale mixture models provides robustification over the traditional normality assumptions often used to model thick-tailed stochastic volatility data. Key words: stochastic volatility, scale mixture of normal distributions, Markov chain Monte Carlo, non linear state space models. ∗Corresponding author. Tel: +55 21 2562-7505 ext. 201 Email address: [email protected] (C. A. Abanto-Valle) Preprint submitted to Computational Statistical & Data Analysis November 26, 2008 1.
    [Show full text]
  • A Folded Normal Slash Distribution and Its Applications to Non-Negative Measurements
    Journal of Data Science 11(2013), 231-247 A Folded Normal Slash Distribution and Its Applications to Non-negative Measurements Wenhao Gui1∗, Pei-Hua Chen2 and Haiyan Wu3 1University of Minnesota Duluth, 2National Chiao Tung University and 3Florida State University Abstract: We introduce a new class of the slash distribution using folded normal distribution. The proposed model defined on non-negative measure- ments extends the slashed half normal distribution and has higher kurtosis than the ordinary half normal distribution. We study the characterization and properties involving moments and some measures based on moments of this distribution. Finally, we illustrate the proposed model with a simulation study and a real application. Key words: Folded normal distribution, kurtosis, maximum likelihood, skew- ness, slash distribution. 1. Introduction The folded normal distribution, proposed by Leone et al. (1961), is often used when the measurement system produces only non-negative measurements, from an otherwise normally distributed process. Given a normally distributed random variable W ∼ N (µ, σ) with mean µ and standard deviation σ, its absolute value X = jW j has a folded normal distribution. The density function of the folded normal distribution is given by, for x ≥ 0 2 2 1 − (x+µ) − (x−µ) f(x) = p [e 2σ2 + e 2σ2 ]: (1) 2πσ Replacing the parameters (µ, σ) by (θ; σ), where θ = µ/σ, the density can be expressed as another version, denoted as FN (θ; σ), see Johnson (1962), p 2 2 2 − θ − x θx f(x) = p e 2 e 2σ2 cosh( ); x ≥ 0: (2) σ π σ ∗Corresponding author.
    [Show full text]