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ANNUAL CONFERENCE of the SCOR-PSE CHAIR | NEWSLETTER #3 Risk-Centric Macroeconomics an INTERVIEW with RICARDO CABALLERO

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ANNUAL CONFERENCE of the SCOR-PSE CHAIR | NEWSLETTER #3 Risk-Centric Macroeconomics an INTERVIEW with RICARDO CABALLERO NewsletterNewsletter #1#3 ANNUALSCOR- PSECONFERENCE CHAIR DecemberDecember 20182019 OF THEON MACROECONOMIC SCOR-PSE RISK CHAI R NEWSLETTER N°3 The current macroeconomic environment is associated with a number of risk factors such as unconventional monetary policy and its normalization, very high levels of Theprivate second and publicannual indebtedness, conference politicalof the uncertainty,SCOR-PSE Chair and the took possibility place on of Julyinfrequent 2, 2019. Severalbut major influential shocks. This economists situation posesfrom newEurope challenges and the for United decision States-makers met dealingat PSE to with macroeconomic risk and for research. present and discuss their most recent research on macroeconomic risk. The keynote lectureUnder thewas scientificgiven by leadership Ricardo Caballeroof Gilles Saint (MIT)-Paul, who (PSE, presented ENS) and his the work executive on risk- centricleadership macroeconomics, of Nicolas Dromel safe (PSE,asset CNRS), shortages, the SCOR and -PSEprudential Chair aimsmonetary to investigate policy. The eventthese ended issues with, and a more policy broadly panel todiscussion, promote the featuring development Gilles and Saint-Paul dissemination (PSE,ENS), of Philippemacroeconomic Trainar risk(SCOR) research and . Natacha+ Valla (ECB). This newsletter includes an interview of Ricardo Caballero, a brief description of the research papers discussed at the conference, and a summary of the panel discussion. The Transmission Understanding Risk-Centric Strategic Highlights fromof Shocks the inaugural conference Uncertainty Panel: Macroeconomics: Default in Endogenous Shocks Disaster risk in Why a Does Learning, Interest Rate The Tail that Policy panel: Long-Term Risks SCORAn Interview-PSE Chair on in Financial Financial Networks: and the Role macroeconomics Uncertainty Confidence, Management Keeps the Are we at risk for the World Economy macroeconomicwith Ricardo risk? Networks A Structural Approach of Black Swans and finance Caballero by NizarReduce Allouch and Business in Uncertain Riskless Rate of a new By Gilles Saint-Paul Growth? Cyclesby RomainTimes Rancière Low by Annafinancial Orlik crisis? By Xavier Gabaix 2 4 5 6 7 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE SCOR-PSE CHAIR | NEWSLETTER #3 Risk-Centric Macroeconomics AN INTERVIEW WITH RICARDO CABALLERO What is “risk-centric macroeconomics”? In your recent research, you stress the How do financial speculation and high- How have risk-markets disrupted the real importance of the feedback between valuation investors amplify this channel… economy in recent decades? aggregate demand and asset prices in causing recessions and low interest rates. Could you R.C.: High-valuation agents are very important Ricardo Caballero: As an economy grows, it briefly explain how this works? during a recession in which the central bank generates new output and risks, both of which is constrained because they limit the drop in need to be absorbed by economic agents. The R.C.: If there is too much supply of risk relative asset prices, and hence in aggregate demand. focus of standard short-run macroeconomics is on to demand for it—and the monetary authority However, if they speculate excessively during the whether there is enough demand for output, and doesn’t do anything to correct this imbalance— boom, their wealth will be depleted during the the role of policy is to directly address any output then the price of the assets in which these risks next severe recession and they will be unable gap that may emerge. From this conventional are embedded (risky assets) needs to drop in to buy enough risky assets to prevent a sharp perspective, equilibrium in the risk market is order to increase their expected return and decline in prices. mostly a concern for the field of finance. attract investors. However, this drop in asset prices depresses aggregate demand through a … and what would be the role for macro- Risk-centric macroeconomics blurs this distinction variety of channels, and creates an output gap. prudential regulation? between macroeconomics and finance. In The monetary authority can break this chain of particular, risk-centric macro thinks about the events by lowering interest rates, which raises R.C.: The environment I just described has an macroeconomic problem from the perspective of the excess return of risky assets without the aggregate demand externality built in. While an imbalance in risk markets and how this feeds need for a sharp drop in their price. Thus the high-valuation investors (and their lenders) may into macroeconomic imbalances. This approach central bank stabilizes aggregate demand. In understand how a recession will affect their not only offers a different a risk-centric perspective, personal wealth, they ignore the effect of a perspective for conventional one thinks about monetary more severe drop in asset prices on aggregate macroeconomic problems, High-valuation agents policy as an instrument for demand and output. Macro-prudential policy but it is particularly are very important stabilizing financial markets can curtail excessive risk taking by high valuation useful when the core during by inducing investors to investors so they have enough wealth to support macroeconomic problem demand enough risk at asset prices after the transition to recession. For stems from imbalances in a recession in which the right asset price level; similar reasons, when speculation is rampant, financial markets which the central bank where the right asset it may be optimal to tighten monetary policy has often been the case in price level means the one during the boom beyond what conventional recent decades. Moreover, is constrained that generates enough output-gap stabilization policies indicate. financial markets respond because they limit perceived wealth to to shocks much faster than support aggregate demand How well is the global economy positioned goods markets. Thus a the drop in asset consistent with potential to withstand future risk-off events? policy framework that prices, and hence output. gives a significant weight R.C.: Not well. There is very limited policy to financial markets and in aggregate demand. However, once interest ammunition left to deal with a large risk- how they react to shocks rates approach the off episode, and there is a lot of economic is nimbler than the conventional output-gap- effective lower bound, the central bank loses policy uncertainty and political uncertainty centric approach. It is also clear that policy its ability to offset excessive risk-intolerance, that could trigger a severe risk-off event. makers in practice do give a lot of weight to and the economy becomes very vulnerable to We are playing with fire. financial markets, so why not make this more large risk-premium shocks. This is the world we live explicit in our models? in today. 2 3 DECEMBER 2019 You said that the world economy today Focusing on the current period, we see Moreover, this shortage is most pronounced can be characterized as an “Advanced unprecedented stocks of negative-yielding in Euro instruments—indeed the Euro zone Emerging Market Economy”. Could you bonds in financial markets. Are we in a is uncomfortably close to a safety trap. briefly explain what you mean? Safety Trap? Which policy tools are most effective in this R.C.: Historically, Emerging R.C.: It seems clear that, situation? Has unconventional monetary Market Economies have at historically normal policy reached its limits? been vulnerable to large risk- While there is interest rates, there is off episodes. Not only are some space for much more demand for R.C.: Here the distinction between a liquidity these shocks very large, but store-of-value instruments trap and a safety trap matters. Unconventional they often come with severe unconventional than their supply. This monetary policy that swaps risky assets capital outflows and pressure monetary policy, shortage is particularly for safe assets is more or less irrelevant in on their currency. Because acute in safe assets, and a liquidity trap but very effective in a safety of the currency pressure, a fiscal expansion […] this is why we refer to trap. There is still space for this sort of asset monetary policy must is extremely powerful, the current situation as a swap in Europe. While there is some space be used to defend the because it expands safety trap rather than a for unconventional monetary policy, a fiscal exchange rate and cannot liquidity trap. expansion (by whomever can produce safe soften the impact of the the net supply assets—given the low yields on government risk-off shock. In this of widely-demanded Note that this scarcity bonds this is not so hard at the moment) is sense the whole world has spread to many extremely powerful, because it expands the looks like an Emerging safe assets. credit instruments due net supply of widely-demanded safe assets. Market Economy: it is to the direct intervention vulnerable to a risk-off and has limited of central banks and the limited freedom monetary policy to soften the blow. that many institutional investors have. Ricardo J. Caballero is the Ford International Professor of Economics, a director of the World Economic Laboratory at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and an NBER Research Associate. Caballero was the Chairman of MIT’s Economics Department (2008-2011). His teaching and research fields are macroeconomics and finance. His current research looks at the macroeconomic implications of reduced risk tolerance and safe asset shortages, global capital markets,
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