Computational Methods for the Long-Term Propagation of Space Debris Orbits
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Computational Methods for the Long-Term Propagation of Space Debris Orbits Robin Hofsteenge Master of Science Thesis Astrodynamics and Space Missions Faculty of Aerospace Engineering Computational Methods for the Long-Term Propagation of Space Debris Orbits MASTER OF SCIENCE THESIS For obtaining the degree of Master of Science in Aerospace Engineering at Delft University of Technology Robin Hofsteenge December 1, 2013 Faculty of Aerospace Engineering · Delft University of Technology Robin Hofsteenge, BSc Chair of Astrodynamics and Space Missions Faculty of Aerospace Engineering Delft University of Technology Kluyverweg 1, 2629 HS, Delft The Netherlands E-mail: [email protected] Cover figure: Part of a destroyed solar panel in orbit around the Earth. Final Version Document Version 1.1 December 1, 2013 This document was typeset using LATEX 2e. Preface The thesis project constitutes the final part of the Master of Science (MSc) program in Aerospace Engineering at Delft University of Technology. Specifically, this thesis project is about computational methods for the long-term propagation of space debris orbits. Prior to this project, a literature study was carried out. The present document continues on the findings of the literature study, but can be read as a stand-alone document. The report focuses on methods and concepts that have actually been implemented in the simulation code developed for the project. For a more complete treatment of the different perturbing forces acting on satellites or a more comprehensive overview of integration methods, the interested reader is encouraged to consult the report of the literature study (Hofsteenge, 2012). I would like to take this opportunity to express my gratitude toward my thesis supervisor, Ron Noomen, for his helpful guidance during the project. Our weekly meetings not only made sure I remained on the right track, but were also useful in keeping me inspired, despite any difficulties encountered. I would also like to thank my fellow MSc students on the ninth floor of the Faculty of Aerospace En- gineering for the pleasant working atmosphere. Finally, I would like to thank my parents for supporting me throughout my academic career. Robin Hofsteenge Delft, December 1, 2013 5 Abstract Space debris poses a significant problem for the space sector. This problem relates to potential collisions of debris objects with active satellites, which in many cases will lead to catastrophic damage. Due to the absence of natural decay mechanisms in the higher regions of space, debris objects in these regions have very long orbital lifetimes. In order to assess the hazards posed to active satellites, it is relevant to be able to predict how the orbits of these debris objects behave on long timescales. A simulation code in C++ has been created for this thesis project, capable of ef- ficient propagation of space debris trajectories over long periods of time (typically a century or more), while taking into account various relevant perturbing forces. The simulation code can be applied to simulate the orbits of debris objects with a wide range of area-to-mass ratios, from intact satellites to tiny flecks of paint. The results produced with the simulation code have been verified to be consistent with results presented in recent research papers on space debris. An extensive performance comparison has been made regarding the efficiency of different computational methods for carrying out accurate, long-term integra- tions of space debris orbits. Both traditional integration methods and symplectic integration methods were tested, the latter of which are interesting because of their energy conservation properties. All methods were also combined with different formulations of the equations of motion. Of the methods tested, the Dormand-Prince 8(7) integration method combined with Gauss’ form of Lagrange’s planetary equations in modified equinoctial el- ements was found to be the most efficient. The performance of the symplectic integration methods was markedly less for this application than for the integration of completely Hamiltonian systems, though it was certainly acceptable. The simulation code was also applied to predict the long-term orbital evolu- tion for debris objects in GEO and GNSS graveyard orbits. While proposed GEO graveyard orbits were found to be safe, graveyard orbits in the GNSS region were found to be susceptible to resonances induced by the luni-solar perturbations, and hence, require a careful selection of the initial orbital parameters. In all cases, debris objects with high area-to-mass ratios were determined to be dangerous to active satellites, regardless of the initial conditions of the graveyard orbit. 7 Contents Preface 5 Abstract 7 List of Symbols 13 List of Abbreviations 17 1 Introduction 19 2 Space Debris 21 2.1 History . 21 2.2 Dangers Related to Space Debris . 23 2.3 The Space Debris Environment . 23 2.4 Sources of Space Debris . 24 2.5 Characteristics of Debris Objects . 26 2.6 Guidelines Regarding Space Debris . 27 3 The GEO and GNSS Debris Environments 29 3.1 The GEO Debris Environment . 29 3.1.1 Debris Population in the GEO Region . 29 3.1.2 Existing Research . 32 3.2 The GNSS Debris Environment . 33 3.2.1 Debris Population in the GNSS Region . 33 3.2.2 Existing Research . 35 4 Force Model 37 4.1 Overview . 37 4.2 Central Gravitational Force . 40 4.3 Deviations in the Earth’s Gravity Field . 40 4.4 Gravitational Attraction of the Sun and the Moon . 45 4.5 Solar Radiation Pressure . 46 9 Contents 10 5 Orbit Formulation 53 5.1 Basic Laws of Astrodynamics . 53 5.2 Coordinate Systems . 54 5.2.1 Cartesian Coordinates . 54 5.2.2 Orbital Elements . 55 5.2.3 Modified Equinoctial Elements . 57 5.3 Modeling Perturbed Orbits . 58 5.3.1 Method of Cowell . 59 5.3.2 Method of Encke . 59 5.3.3 Method of Variation of Parameters . 60 5.4 Choice of Propagation Methods . 64 6 Traditional Integration Methods 67 6.1 Introduction . 68 6.2 Accuracy and Efficiency . 75 6.3 Fixed Step Size Methods . 76 6.3.1 Runge-Kutta 4 . 76 6.3.2 General Runge-Kutta Methods . 77 6.4 Adaptive Step Size Methods . 78 6.4.1 General Aspects . 78 6.4.2 Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg 5(6) . 80 6.4.3 Dormand-Prince 8(7) . 80 6.5 Choice of Integration Methods . 82 7 Symplectic Integration Methods 85 7.1 Exponential Operators . 85 7.2 Hamiltonian Mechanics . 87 7.3 Symplectic Mappings . 88 7.4 Symplectic Integrators . 89 7.4.1 General Formulation . 89 7.4.2 Hamiltonian Splitting . 89 7.4.3 Kinoshita’s Method . 90 7.4.4 SABA2n Methods . 91 7.5 Methods for Splitting the Hamiltonian . 93 7.5.1 T + V Splitting . 93 7.5.2 Wisdom-Holman Splitting . 94 8 Verification of the Simulation Code 95 8.1 Overview of the Simulation Code . 95 8.2 Two-Body Problem . 97 8.3 Positions of the Sun and the Moon . 98 8.4 Individual Perturbations . 100 8.4.1 J2-Term of the Earth’s Gravity Field . 101 8.4.2 Gravitational Attraction of the Sun . 104 Contents 11 8.4.3 Gravitational Attraction of the Moon . 105 8.4.4 Solar Radiation Pressure . 106 8.5 Long-Term Behavior . 110 9 Performance Comparison of Computational Methods 119 9.1 Overview . 120 9.2 Testing Methodology . 121 9.3 Two-Body Problem . 123 9.3.1 Round-Off Errors . 123 9.3.2 Error Growth . 126 9.3.3 Performance for a Circular Orbit . 129 9.3.4 Performance for a Highly Eccentric Orbit . 132 9.4 Perturbed Problem . 134 9.4.1 Important Remarks . 134 9.4.2 Choice of Reference . 138 9.4.3 Case I: Near-Circular GEO Graveyard Orbit – Low A/m . 140 9.4.4 Case II: Near-Circular GEO Graveyard Orbit – High A/m 145 9.4.5 Case III: Highly Eccentric GPS Graveyard Orbit – Low A/m ............................. 150 9.4.6 Case IV: Near-Circular GPS Graveyard Orbit – High A/m 155 9.5 Discussion . 160 10 Long-Term Debris Orbit Predictions 165 10.1 Introduction . 165 10.2 GEO Graveyard Orbits . 166 10.3 GNSS Graveyard Orbits . 170 10.3.1 Low Altitude Eccentric Orbits . 170 10.3.2 High Altitude Eccentric Orbits . 174 10.3.3 Near-Circular Orbits . 178 10.4 Discussion . 182 11 Conclusions and Recommendations 185 11.1 Conclusions . 185 11.2 Recommendations . 188 A JGM-3 Gravitational Coefficients 189 B Routines for the Positions of the Sun and the Moon 191 C Important Equations in Astrodynamics 195 Bibliography 197 List of Symbols A Area [m2] a Acceleration vector of orbiting object [m/s2] a Semi-major axis [m] CR Radiation pressure coefficient [-] Cn;m Gravity field coefficient [-] c Speed of light, c = 2:998792458 · 108 [m/s] D Difference between the mean longitudes of the Sun and the Moon [◦] d Degrees of freedom of system E Eccentric anomaly [◦] En Energy of photon [J] er Unit position vector of the object [-] e Unit vector pointing from the object to the Sun [-] eSun Unit vector pointing to the Sun [-] e Eccentricity [-] e Local truncation error F Mean angular distance of the Moon from the ascending node [◦] f Force function f Collection of all perturbing accelerations that cannot be expressed as a potential [m/s2] 2 ft Total acceleration [m/s ] 2 fN Transverse component of perturbing acceleration [m/s ] 2 fS Radial component of perturbing acceleration [m/s ] 2 fW Normal component of perturbing acceleration [m/s ] G Universal gravitational constant, G = 6:67384 · 10−11 [m2/kg s2] g0 Jacobian matrix H Angular momentum [m2/s] Ha Altitude of apogee [m] Hp Altitude of perigee [m] DHgeo Difference in altitude with the geostationary altitude [m] 13 Contents 14 H Hamiltonian [m2/s2] h Integration step size [s] i Inclination [◦] J Symplectic identity [-] Jn (=−Cn0) Zonal gravity field coefficient [-] Ki Slope function ki Slope