REPUBLIC OF KENYA
MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT &FORESTRY STATE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT KENYAMETEOROLOGICALDEPARTMENT Dagoretti Corner, Ngong Road, P. O. Box 30259, 00100 GPO, Nairobi, Kenya Telephone: 254 (0) 20 3867880-7,Fax: 254 (0) 20 3876955/3877373/3867888, e-mail: [email protected], [email protected] Website: http://www.meteo.go.ke
WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN-DAY PERIOD VALID 20TH TO 26TH MARCH, 2018 Review of weather for the last seven- Forecast for the next seven days day period (12thto 18thMarch, 2018): (20th to 26th March, 2018): The forecast indicates that: Wet conditions were sustained over most parts of Issue Date: 19/03/2018 the country with a marked increase in rainfall Rainfall is expected to continue over several parts amounts over various regions during the review of the country during the first two days of the forecast period; period; A reduction in rainfall amounts is expected over Day-time (maximum) temperatures decreased most areas between Wednesday and Friday throughout the country while night-time followed by an increase again from Saturday. (minimum) temperatures generallyincreased.
1. WEATHER REVIEW FOR THE LAST SEVEN DAYS (12TH TO 18TH MARCH, 2018) 1.1 Rainfall Review
Wet conditions were sustained over most parts of the country as depicted in Figures 1, 2 and 3and some areas exhibited a marked increase in rainfall. Mrangi Primary School (in Taita Taveta County) recorded the highest amount of rainfall within 24 hours of 138.0mm on 16thMarch, 2018.
Other stations that reported very heavy rainfall (>50mm)within 24 hours on various days include Iten (97.8mm), Busia Ministry of Water (94.9mm), Mabanga A.T.C (91.0mm), Kabete (74.0mm), Shigharo (66.2mm), Wilson Airport (58.5mm), Garissa (51.2mm), Kisii (51.0mm), Dagoretti (50.1mm), . Heavy rainfall (20mm- 50mm) was recorded in a number of stations on diverse days within the review period. These include Marsabit, Moyale, Wajir,Kitale, Kakamega, Eldoret Kapsoya and Eldoret Airport, Nyahururu, Ngong, Voi, Kisumu, Narok, Nyeri, Embu, Meru, Moi Air Base, Dagoretti, Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, Makindu, Nakuru, Mtwapa, Moi International Airport, Kabete, Kabarak, Matungu, Bamburi, Tuthu, Muriranjas, SOS Nyali, Kilindini, Ngerenyi, Mlenge, Werugha, Wesu Hospital and Mwatate, among others.
Mrangi Primary School (in Taita Taveta County) alsorecorded the highest seven-day total rainfall of 166.8mm followed by Iten with 161.8mm. Other stations whose 7-day rainfall totals were in excess of 100mm include Mabanga A.T.C., Busia Ministry of Water, Narok, Dagoretti Corner, Kabete, Shigharo and Mlenge
The heavy rains have resulted in flooding in various parts of the country including Homa Bay and Narok Counties as well as Machakos County where the Athi River submerged Mto Wa Mawe Bridge leading to the temporary closure of the busy Nairobi-Mombasa highway.A number of people were also swept away by raging
floods in various parts of the country. A number of areasin the country also face the risk of water-borne diseases as the rains continue.
1.2 Temperature
During the review period, day-time (maximum)temperatures decreased throughout the country with the exception of a few areas like Lamu and Malindi. Night-time (minimum) temperatures increasedover most parts of the country although a few places like Wajir, Mtwapa and Voi recorded slight decreases. This was due to increased cloudiness for much of the period.
ManderaMeteorological Station recorded the highest daily maximum temperature of 39.0°C on 13th March while Nyahururu Meteorological Station recorded the lowest daily minimum temperature of 10.4oC on 17th March.The same stations recorded the highest seven-day average maximum temperature of 37.7oC and the lowest seven-day average minimum temperature of 11.6°C respectively. (SeeFigure 4below)
2. FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS FROM 20THTO 26TH MARCH, 2018
The forecast for the next seven day period (20th to 26th March 2018) indicates that:
Rainfall is expected to continue over several parts of the country during the first two days of the forecast period; A reduction in rainfall amounts is expected over most areas between Wednesday and Friday followed by an increase again from Saturday; Flooding may occur in low lying areas and urban areas with poor drainage systems earlier in the forecast period.
DETAILED REGIONAL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS 20THTO 26TH MARCH, 2018
The Lake Victoria Basin, Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Central and South Rift Valley (counties of Siaya, Kisumu, Homabay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Transnzoia, Baringo, UasinGishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Nandi, Laikipia, Nakuru, Narok, Kajiado, Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma and Busia)are expected to experience mainly sunny intervals in the morning with a possibility of rains over few places in the first two days. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms are expected over several places on few places on Wednesday to Friday and over several places on Tuesday as well as Saturday to Monday. The showers are expected to be relatively heavier in South Nyanza, parts of Narok, western region and areas around Mt. Elgon on the first day;
Northwestern (counties of Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu)are expected to experience morning rains over few places on Tuesday and afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms over few places bordering Uganda on Sunday and Monday. The remaining days are expected to experience sunny intervals the entire day;
Central Highlands including, Nairobi area (counties of Nairobi, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, and Tharaka)are expected to experience cloudy early morning with rains over several places on Tuesday and Wednesday and over few places on Thursday, Sunday and Monday. The remaining early mornings are expected to be cloudy giving way to sunny intervals. Afternoon/evening showers are expected over several places on Tuesday, Saturday, Sundayand Monday. There is a possibility of afternoon/evening showers over few places on Thursday;
Northeastern (counties of Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo)are expected to experiencesunny intervals in the morning with a possibility of rains over few places on all Tuesday, Sunday and Monday. Afternoon/evening showers are expected over few places throughout the forecast period. There is a possibility of heavy rainfall over Mandera County on Friday;
Southeastern Lowlands(counties of Kitui, Makueni, Machakos and Taita Taveta): are expected to experience mainly sunny intervals in the morning with a possibility of rains over few places on Tuesday and Wednesday. Afternoon/evening showers are expected over several places on Tuesday and few places on Sunday and Monday. Sunny intervals will predominate in the afternoon on the remaining days;
The Coastal Strip (counties of Mombasa, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale): are expected to experience morning showers over few places on Tuesday and Thursday with the remaining mornings expected to experience sunny intervals. Afternoon showers are expected over few places on Tuesday with sunny intervals predominating much of the period.
N.B: This forecast should be used in conjunction with the daily (24-hour) forecast issued by this Department.
KEY OF SCIENTIFIC WORDS USED
Rainfall categories Rainfall coverage Range Category Term Meaning <5 mm Light Most Places Between 66% and 100% 5 - 20mm Moderate Several Places Between 33% and 66% 20 - 50mm Heavy Few Places Between 0 and 33% >50mm Very heavy
J. Gacheru-Ongoma FOR THE DIRECTOR OF KENYA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT