LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR a DAILY PUBLICATION of the DIALOGUE Thursday, January 21, 2021

LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR A DAILY PUBLICATION OF THE DIALOGUE www.thedialogue.org Thursday, January 21, 2021

BOARD OF ADVISORS FEATURED Q&A TODAY’S NEWS Diego Arria Director, Columbus Group ECONOMIC Devry Boughner Vorwerk Will Biden’s Latin Biden Takes CEO, DevryBV Sustainable Strategies Office in U.S., Joyce Chang Global Head of Research, America Team Set Orders Reversal of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Trump Policies Paula Cifuentes Director of Economic & Fiscal Affairs, the Right Priorities? Joe Biden took office as president Latin America & Canada, of the United States and signed Philip Morris International orders to reverse policies of his Marlene Fernández predecessor, Donald Trump, in Corporate Vice President for areas including immigration. Government Relations, Arcos Dorados (McDonald’s) Page 2 Peter Hakim President Emeritus, POLITICAL Inter-American Dialogue Donna Hrinak Mexico’s Homicide Senior VP, Corporate Affairs, Royal Caribbean Group Rate Fell Just Jon E. Huenemann 0.4% Last Year Former Corporate and Government Senior Executive Mexico’s homicide rate declined Joe Biden, who was sworn in Wednesday as president of the United States, has nominated James R. Jones 0.4 percent last year, despite the several officials who will be responsible for U.S. policy toward Latin America. // Photo: U.S. Chairman, Congress. Covid-19 pandemic, which some Monarch Global Strategies had expected to lower the murder Craig A. Kelly U.S. President Joe Biden has nominated, pending congres- rate due to lockdowns. Senior Director, Americas Page 2 Int’l Gov’t Relations, Exxon Mobil sional confirmation, Antony Blinken as his secretary of John Maisto state. Meanwhile, Colombia-born Juan González will be the Director, U.S. Education ECONOMIC Finance Group Q next senior director for the Western Hemisphere in the Biden Nicolás Mariscal administration’s National Security Council, and Samantha Power was Trump’s Sanctions Chairman, Grupo Marhnos nominated to lead the U.S. Agency for International Development. Who Cost Cuba $20 Bn: Thomas F. McLarty III are the primary players in terms of Latin America policy to watch in the Foreign Ministry Chairman, McLarty Associates Biden administration, and what do choices so far signal about areas that Sanctions that the United States Beatrice Rangel might take center-stage in Western Hemisphere relations? What are the imposed on Cuba during the Director, strengths and weaknesses of Biden’s Latin America team? How much administration of former U.S. AMLA Consulting LLC President Donald Trump cost the Jaana Remes priority will Latin America-related issues take in the new U.S. adminis- island nation $20 billion, said Partner, tration, particularly in terms of funding? Foreign Ministry official Johana McKinsey Global Institute Tablada. Ernesto Revilla Page 3 Head of Latin American Arturo Sarukhan, member of the Inter-American Dialogue’s Economics, Citi Gustavo Roosen Board of Directors and former Mexican ambassador to Chairman of the Board, the United States: “Joe Biden’s deep and extensive role in Envases Venezolanos Andrés Rozental Latin America and the Caribbean, both during his time in President, Rozental & A the Senate and as President Obama’s wingman for the region, certainly Asociados bodes well for the Americas. However, that does not necessarily mean Shelly Shetty Managing Director, Sovereigns that his administration will be able to dedicate an unvarying bandwidth Fitch Ratings to inter-American affairs or that the region is the same as when he left office in January 2017. As the world economy gets a shot of optimism from a Biden win and vaccine news, most Latin American economies enter 2021 challenged either by the need to implement unpopular fiscal consolidation and face social tensions or by the risk of populism and the fraying of democratic governance and institutions—or both. Heightened Tablada // File Photo: Cuban Government. Continued on page 3

POLITICAL NEWS enrollments in the Migrant Protocols Policy, NEWS BRIEFS also known as the “remain in Mexico” program, Biden Takes Office in NPR reported. The policy had required asylum Witness Implicates seekers trying to enter the United States from Mexican Soldiers in U.S., Orders Reversal Mexico to stay in Mexico to await their U.S. court hearings. Biden also ordered officials Students’ Disappearance of Trump Policies to work to preserve the Deferred Action for New testimony from a witness in the case Childhood Arrivals, or DACA, program, which of 43 college students who went missing in Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. was sworn in has shielded from deportation hundreds of Mexico in 2014 has directly implicated army Wednesday as president of the United States thousands of people who are undocumented soldiers in the incident, the Associated Press and pledged to help unify a deeply divided and were brought to the United States as chil- reported, citing Mexican newspaper Reforma. country. “This is our historic moment of crisis dren, The New York Times reported. Biden also The witness, presumed to be a gang member, and challenge,” Biden said in his inaugural ended the emergency declaration that Trump alleges soldiers interrogated some of the address at the U.S. Capitol, which just two used to begin construction of a wall along the students before turning them over to a drug weeks before was overrun with rioters attempt- U.S.-Mexico border, a signature initiative of gang. Mexico’s Interior Department declined to ing to overturn the electoral loss of Biden’s Trump’s administration. Several world leaders comment on the newspaper’s report. predecessor, Donald Trump. “Unity is the path congratulated Biden. Colombian President forward. And we must meet this moment as Iván Duque said his government “is ready to the United States of America. If we do that, continue strengthening a historic relationship,” I guarantee you we will not fail.” Trump, who according to Colombia Reports. Venezuelan Protesters in Haiti pursued several claims dismissed as baseless President Nicolás Maduro, the target of numer- Demand Moïse’s in failed efforts to overturn the election result, ous sanctions by the Trump administration, Resignation broke with tradition by not attending Biden’s said he hopes for better relations with Biden. Hundreds of people took to the streets in Hai- swearing-in. In his inaugural address, Biden, “We must tell the United States: we want to im- ti’s capital on Wednesday in the latest protest at 78 the oldest person to assume the U.S. prove our relations, to make it one of respect, demanding that President Jovenel Moïse step presidency, urged Americans to end what he of mutual acknowledgment, a relationship with down, the Associated Press reported. Protest- called its “uncivil war” and unify in the face of a future,” Agence France-Presse reported. Mad- ers clashed with police, and one woman was crises, including the Covid-19 pandemic. The uro urged Biden to “turn the page ... after four shot in the arm and was in stable condition. United States has recorded more than 24 mil- years of Trumpist brutality.” Mexican President The demonstrations, which opposition leaders lion cases of the highly contagious disease and Andrés Manuel López Obrador called on Biden are organizing, are calling for the resignation of more than 406,000 deaths, far more than any to fulfill campaign promises to reform U.S. im- Moïse, who has been governing by decree for other country in the world, according to Johns migration policies. “I hope that today or in the a year following the dissolution of parliament. Hopkins University. Just before Biden took the coming days he presents the migration plan,” Moïse claims that his term ends in February oath of office, Kamala Devi Harris was sworn in said López Obrador, Reuters reported. “What 2022. as the nation’s vice president, making her the it is going to consist of, how they are going to first woman, the first Black American and the respect [migrants’] right to be recognized, that first person with Asian heritage to occupy the they get dual nationality.” office. She was sworn in by Sonia Sotomayor, Chile Raises $4.25 Billion the United States’ first Supreme Court justice in Euro, Dollar Markets with Latin American heritage. Soon after taking Mexico’s Homicide office Wednesday, Biden signed 17 executive Rate Fell Just 0.4% Chile raised approximately $4.25 billion in euro orders, reversing several Trump-era policies. and U.S. dollar markets on Tuesday, including They included a requirement that people Last Year: Gov’t the largest sustainability bond issued by a Lat- wear masks on federal property to fight the in American sovereign in foreign debt markets, Bloomberg News reported. The Andean nation spread of Covid-19 as well as orders to rejoin Mexico’s homicide rate declined just 0.4 per- borrowed $2.25 billion in a two-part dollar-de- the World Health Organization and the Paris cent last year despite the Covid-19 pandemic, nominated sale, including $1.5 billion in sus- climate accords. Under orders Biden signed the government announced Wednesday, the As- tainability bonds. The country also raised 1.65 Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Homeland sociated Press reported. The country recorded billion euros ($2 billion) in European markets Security announced that, starting today, it 34,515 homicides in 2020, just 133 fewer than to finance green and social projects. Chile’s would pause deportations for some noncit- the country tallied in 2019. The decline equaled finance ministry said on Tuesday that both the izens for 100 days and would also halt new just more than the one-day homicide death dollar and euro offerings were oversubscribed.

COPYRIGHT © 2021, INTER-AMERICAN DIALOGUE PAGE 2 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR Thursday, January 21, 2021 toll. Some had expected that partial lockdowns FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 1 instituted during the pandemic would mean a significant decline in the number of killings in domestic political risk, the socioeconomic Clinton political appointee Arturo Valenzu- Mexico, but 2020 turned out to be the second effects of the pandemic and global trade ela. During the Obama years, González consecutive year that the country’s homicide tension fallout—and other factors such as worked closely with then-Vice President Joe rate remained flat. From 2018 to 2019, figures productivity and competitiveness chal- Biden on Central American as well as Carib- published by Mexico’s National Statistics lenges—are weighing on many nations. bean issues. His prior government experi- Institute showed a decline that was similar— Nonetheless, Biden’s experience and that of ence and strong personal relationship with about half a percentage point, the AP reported. his team—Jake Sullivan, Juan González and Mexico’s homicide rate has remained at levels Roberta Jacobson at the NSC and Alejandro that have been historically high since President Mayorkas at DHS—are a breath of fresh air What we know so Andrés Manuel López Obrador took office in and good news given their collective and far augurs well for December 2018. The rate was 29 killings per holistic experience, and their policy and a strong reset 100,000 residents in 2019, according to the intellectual chops, in dealing with the region in U.S.-Latin National Statistics Institute, which relies on and this set of challenges there. We will still American relations.” data from death certificates. [Editor’s note: See need to await news, though, on who will be — Cynthia Arnson Q&A on military policing in Mexico in the May appointed as assistant secretary for Western 22 issue of the Advisor.] Hemisphere affairs at State—one of the two key ‘air-traffic controller’ positions for region- Joe Biden suggests that he will have Biden’s al policy in any administration, along with ear—and trust—on key policy initiatives. The ECONOMIC NEWS González’s role as director for Latin America nomination of Samantha Power as direc- and the Caribbean at the White House. The tor of USAID is similarly heartening, if not dynamics between those two positions inspired. As journalist, scholar and diplomat, Trump’s Sanctions are key in ensuring a whole-of-government Power has demonstrated profound empathy Cost Cuba $20 Bn: approach to inter-American affairs, surely for people suffering deprivation and the and sorely needed in resetting relationships consequences of violence and war. Her new Foreign Ministry and tackling the effects of Donald Trump’s seat on the National Security Council posi- diplomatic vandalism.” tions her well to advocate for U.S. govern- The administration of former U.S. Presi- ment programs that target the most needy. dent Donald Trump’s toughened sanctions Cynthia Arnson, director of the The Biden administration’s commitment to against Cuba cost the Caribbean nation Latin America program at the address root causes of migration in Central some $20 billion, Johana Tablada, a senior Woodrow Wilson International America and help Venezuela’s neighbors official at Cuba’s foreign ministry, told Agence A Center for Scholars: “Thus far, hosting millions of refugees will make Power France-Presse on Wednesday. “The damage to there are only rumors about who will be an important player on hemispheric issues.” the bilateral relationship during this time has nominated as the next assistant secre- been considerable, and the economic harm tary of Western Hemisphere affairs, a key Stephen Johnson, former U.S. to Cuba immense,” she told the wire service position on Latin America policy. But what deputy assistant secretary of in an email. Tablada also said 250 measures we know so far augurs well for a strong defense for Western Hemi- were taken against Cuba during the Trump reset in U.S.-Latin American relations. A sphere affairs (2007-2009): presidency. Among the stepped-up measures Juan González is an excellent choice for “Personnel is policy—so goes the familiar during the Trump administration were limits the National Security Council’s top post cliché. If true, Tony Blinken, Juan González on Cuban-Americans’ travel to the island as covering the region. He grew up in Colombia, and Samantha Power are all solid picks well as to remittances services, in addition to the United States and Mexico, and spent as far as Western Hemisphere ties are a blacklist of several Cuban companies and several years as a Peace Corps volunteer in concerned. They bring experience, subject actors. In its latest action, the Trump adminis- Guatemala, thus bringing deep knowledge matter expertise and competence. Three tration returned Cuba to a list of state sponsors and cultural sensitivity to what has become other key positions will be the U.S. trade of terrorism last week, rolling back then-Presi- a fraught relationship with the hemisphere. representative; State’s undersecretary for dent Barack Obama’s 2015 move to remove it. González was mentored by some of the civilian security, democracy and human Tablada said she was hopeful that U.S.-Cuba State Department’s best and brightest, rights; and the assistant secretary for relations would improve under new President including career diplomat Tom Shannon and Western Hemisphere affairs. All will need to Joe Biden. Continued on page 4

FEATURED Q&A / Continued from page 3 LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR is published every business day by the Inter-American Dialogue, Copyright © 2021 work to put relations on a consistent track change. Of these, migration will likely be the and re-establish U.S. credibility damaged top priority. Biden has already announced Erik Brand by Donald Trump’s undemocratic behavior. a $4 billion plan to address the migration Publisher [email protected] Trump’s erratic, transactional approach left crisis in the Northern Triangle—Honduras, El regional allies fearing what the next tweet Salvador and Guatemala. Collectively, this Gene Kuleta Editor would bring and adversaries comforted that team has many strengths. Each appointee is [email protected] any threat would eventually prove survivable. highly experienced in their respective fields, Anastasia Chacón González Trump’s understanding of issues such as Reporter & Associate Editor immigration was shallow, and his rhetoric [email protected] was often insulting. To be sure, there were The Biden adminis- some things his administration did right to tration’s nominations

support long-term U.S. interests in promot- for several key posts Michael Shifter, President ing democracy, economic prosperity and the related to Latin Rebecca Bill Chavez, Nonresident Senior Fellow rule of law. Yet, much credit goes to certain America indicate Sergio Bitar, Nonresident Senior Fellow appointees, dedicated diplomats and career many of his priorities Joan Caivano, Senior Advisor personnel who worked hard to keep sensible for the region.” Michael Camilleri, Director, Rule of Law Program programs going, despite capricious cuts and Kevin Casas-Zamora, Nonresident Senior Fellow — Francisco Sánchez rescissions. Bipartisan congressional sup- Héctor Castro Vizcarra, Nonresident Senior Fellow port was crucial. Today, issues are ever-more Julia Dias Leite, Nonresident Senior Fellow complex. The region is struggling against and many are directly knowledgeable of the Ariel Fiszbein, Director, Education Program the Covid pandemic, and record economic region. Stylistically, the team will likely seek Peter Hakim, President Emeritus losses have devastated recent gains in agreement through bilateral discussion rath- Nora Lustig, Nonresident Senior Fellow social mobility. China’s influence has grown. er than through the unilateral demands seen Margaret Myers, Director, Asia and Iran is back in Venezuela. Narcotrafficking during the Trump administration. This would Latin America Program Manuel Orozco, Senior Fellow has grown worse in Mexico. And Chile is likely improve the chance for diplomatic Xiaoyu Pu, Nonresident Senior Fellow experiencing social upheaval. Biden’s team breakthroughs. However, upcoming elections Jeffrey Puryear, Senior Fellow needs to hit the ground running, and with in Ecuador, Chile and Peru may undercut this Mateo Samper, Nonresident Senior Fellow few resources that will, for now, mostly go team. Several prominent candidates have Tamar Solnik, Director, Finance & Administration toward U.S. economic recovery.” indicated they will shun close cooperation Lisa Viscidi, Director, Energy Program with the United States, if elected. There Denisse Yanovich, Director of Development, Francisco Sánchez, partner at are many opportunities for improving the External Relations & Special Projects Holland & Knight and former relationship between the United States and U.S. undersecretary of trade: Latin America. President Biden will focus Latin America Advisor is published every business day, except for major U.S. holidays, “The Biden administration’s on domestic issues and U.S.-China relations by the Inter-American Dialogue at A 1155 15th Street NW, Suite 800 nominations for several key posts related to early in his term. Nevertheless, the Biden Washington, DC 20005 Latin America indicate many of his priorities administration will be well served by also www.thedialogue.org for the region. His nominations include empowering his skilled Latin America team ISSN 2163-7962 Tony Blinken as secretary of state, Juan to focus on the many important issues in the Subscription inquiries are welcomed at González as senior director for the Western Western Hemisphere.” [email protected] Hemisphere at the NSC, Samantha Power The opinions expressed by the members of the Board of as USAID administrator and John Kerry as The Advisor welcomes comments on its Q&A Advisors and by guest commentators do not necessarily climate czar. If confirmed, these individuals section. Readers can write editor Gene Kuleta represent those of the publisher. The analysis is the sole will likely focus on migration, economic at [email protected]. view of each commentator and does not necessarily represent the views of their respective employers or firms. engagement, human rights and climate The information in this report has been obtained from reliable sources, but neither its accuracy and completeness, nor the opinions based thereon, are guaranteed. If you have any questions relating to the contents of this publication, contact the editorial offices of the Inter-American Dialogue. Contents of this report may not be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted without prior written permission from the publisher.