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Copyright by Cole Adam Spitzack 2018 Copyright by Cole Adam Spitzack 2018 The Report Committee for Cole Adam Spitzack Certifies that this is the approved version of the following thesis: Gray is the New Black: Great Power Competition in the Gray Zone APPROVED BY SUPERVISING COMMITTEE: Supervisor: Jeremi Suri James Paul Pope Gray is the New Black: Great Power Competition in the Gray Zone by Cole Adam Spitzack Thesis Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Austin in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Public Affairs The University of Texas at Austin May 2018 Dedication To my girl… my spitfire, Nicole. And our amazing children, Addison, Isaiah, and Elijah. Acknowledgements I am indebted to all who came before me and selflessly passed their wisdom to others. A special thanks to Professors Jeremi Suri and Paul Pope for their time and feedback on this endeavor. v Abstract Gray is the New Black: Great Power Competition in the Gray Zone Cole Adam Spitzack, MPAff The University of Texas at Austin, 2018 Supervisor: Jeremi Suri The 2017 National Security Strategy and 2018 National Defense Strategy herald the return of great power competition as the focus of U.S. national security after an almost three-decade hiatus. While the United States was enraptured with the “Unipolar Moment” and consumed with fighting terrorism, the character of great power conflict was changing. Leveraging disruptive information technologies and potent amalgamations of national power in a dynamic hyper-globalized environment, great power competitors are exposing U.S. vulnerabilities in the ambiguity of the Gray Zone between war and peace. U.S. adversaries like China and Russia are increasingly operating outside of traditional conflict models, exploiting our struggle to clearly conceptualize and counter Gray Zone methods. Examining recent literature and utilizing profiles of China and Russia, this work argues that the Gray Zone is an urgently relevant concept for framing the unique character of great power conflict in the present age. vi Table of Contents Chapter 1: Introduction ............................................................................................... 1 Research Questions ............................................................................................ 2 Organization ....................................................................................................... 2 The Gray Zone Defined ..................................................................................... 3 The Gray Zone Debate ....................................................................................... 4 Words Matter ................................................................................... 6 A New Name for a New Form of Conflict .................................... 8 Chapter 2: The Future is Gray .................................................................................. 11 Technological Transformation ...................................................... 12 The Limits of Great Power Competition ...................................... 14 Different Approaches to Great Power Competition .................... 15 Chapter 3: Sino-Russo Commonalities .................................................................... 17 Chapter 4: China - Profile ......................................................................................... 24 Economic ....................................................................................... 26 Diplomatic ...................................................................................... 28 Military ........................................................................................... 29 Information .................................................................................... 30 Assessment ..................................................................................... 33 Chapter 5: Russia - Profile ....................................................................................... 36 Economic ....................................................................................... 40 Diplomatic ...................................................................................... 42 Military ........................................................................................... 44 Information .................................................................................... 47 Assessment ..................................................................................... 49 Chapter 6: Conclusion ............................................................................................... 51 More of the Same is Not the Answer ........................................... 52 Adapt or Die ................................................................................... 52 vii What Must Be Done ...................................................................... 53 General Recommendations ........................................................... 54 Warning .......................................................................................... 56 Bibliography............................................................................................................... 58 viii Chapter 1: Introduction In November 2016, the Joint Chiefs of Staff published their assessment of the near-future as a chaotic, contested, and complex environment of pervasive disorder.1 Against this dire future the 2017 National Security Strategy (NSS) highlights the rise of competition across the political, economic, and military domains, with particular focus on great power rivalries with Russia and China.2 The 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS) warns that the United States has suffered from “strategic atrophy” and faces an increasingly anarchic global environment marked by a receding liberal, rules-based international order under attack by revisionist states.3 In a major departure from U.S. policy since September 11, 2001, the 2018 NDS unequivocally states that “inter-state strategic competition, not terrorism, is now the primary concern of U.S. national security.”4 One of the central trends in this dynamic environment of rising challenges to U.S. dominance and international norms is the increasing exploitation of the ambiguous realm between war and peace, characterized as the “Gray Zone.” The Gray Zone is an important new construct for understanding the contemporary strategic landscape and the methods being employed by our principal competitors. Although many of the techniques being employed in the Gray Zone are not inherently new, many of the tools are, and their deliberate application in a concerted manner to challenge U.S. national interests and exploit seams in the U.S. strategic paradigm are cause for serious concern and consideration. China and Russia have honed their strategic approaches to counter U.S. dominance through decades of observing the United States operate in conflicts around the world. Both have deliberately developed non-kinetic means and strategies to determine outcomes that negate U.S. advantages in conventional conflicts. In the last decade, these Gray Zone strategies have yielded startling changes to the world map. Russia has nominally acquired Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Crimea, and the 1 “Joint Operating Environment 2035: The Joint Force in a Contested and Disordered World,” Joint Chiefs of Staff, last modified on November 28, 2016, https://publicintelligence.net/jcs-joe-2035/. 2 Donald Trump, National Security Strategy (Washington, DC: White House, 2017), 2. 3 Ibid, 1. 4 Ibid. 1 Donbas, while China has exerted de facto control of large swathes of the South China Sea, its associated reefs and islands, and accompanying natural resources. A less discussed but greater danger is the erosion of U.S. credibility and the subversion of the liberal international order. It is crucial to understand the evolving Gray Zone strategies being employed by our adversaries and develop appropriate counter-measures to prevent the continued debilitation of U.S. national interests, power, and security. RESEARCH QUESTIONS 1. Is the Gray Zone useful for understanding present forms of great power competition? 2. As great power competitors, how are China and Russia operating in the Gray Zone? ORGANIZATION This paper will address great power competition in the context of the Gray Zone. The purpose is to demonstrate that the Gray Zone is a valid and useful construct for understanding the unique paradigm in great power conflict that now exists due to the advent of disruptive technologies and the distinctive strategic environment that now prevails. I start with defining the Gray Zone and addressing concerns over its merit. I then support its relevance as a functional concept, making the case that contemporary great power conflict is best understood through the conceptual frame of the Gray Zone. To support this argument, I choose to profile the two great power adversaries identified in the 2017 U.S. National Security Strategy, China and Russia. I explore several commonalities that both great power possesses before delving into each individually. I build upon the most recent literature to offer a contemporary profile of Russian and Chinese capabilities and strategies in the Gray Zone. To provide contrast I organize each profile into subsections according to the classic DIME-model for national elements of power: diplomatic, information, military, and economic. I conclude with general recommendations of what must be done and why, and a warning about the costs
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