Russian Outlook Plex, Often Painful, and Always Fateful Choices National Patriots and to Reap a Political Windfall Made by the First Post-Communist Regime
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Spring 1998 Russia’s New Foreign Policy By Leon Aron Few propositions about today’s world can be stated “national patriotic” plurality in the Duma (the with greater certainty: never in the four and a half lower house of the Russian Parliament), which centuries of the modern Russian state has there early in 1996 “annulled” the 1991 Belavezhskie been a Russia less imperialist, less militarized, less agreements formalizing the dissolution of the threatening to its neighbors and the world, and Soviet Union. This deafening chorus is led daily more susceptible to the Western ideals and prac- by the flagships of Communist and nationalist tices than the Russia we see today. media—Pravda, Sovetskaya Rossia and Zavtra, with a combined daily press run of more than Although obvious even to a person with only a half a million—and by the nearly 300 local pro- cursory acquaintance with Russian history, this Communist newspapers. state of affairs results from a long series of com- Yet even when the chance to propitiate the Russian Outlook plex, often painful, and always fateful choices national patriots and to reap a political windfall made by the first post-Communist regime. Some by adopting a rigid and hostile stance was handed of the most critical decisions were made between to President Boris Yeltsin on a silver platter, the 1991 and 1996, when Russia was reeling from Kremlin passed—as in the case of the North economic depression, hyperinflation, pain of Atlantic Treaty Organization expansion. After market reforms, and postimperial trauma. Many much blustering, Yeltsin chose to sign the NATO- a nation, even in incomparably milder circum- Russia Founding Act and to accommodate the stances, succumbed to the temptation of making United States and its partners rather than to repeat nationalism the linchpin of national unity and (even if rhetorically) the cold war. “It already hap- cohesion at the time of dislocation and disarray. pened more than once that we, the East and the From Argentina to China, Malaysia, and Indone- West, failed to find a chance to reconcile,” Yeltsin sia, in various degrees of crudeness and militancy, said in February 1997, when the final negotiations countries have recently resorted to the palliative with NATO began. “This chance must not be of nationalism to dull the pain of market reforms missed.” The leader of the national-patriotic oppo- or reversals of economic fortune. sition and the chairman of the Communist Party of In Russia, too, retrenchment and truculence the Russian Federation, Gennady Zyuganov called were urged by leftist nationalists inside and out- the founding act “unconditional surrender” and a side the Supreme Soviet and, since 1995, by the “betrayal of Russia’s interests.” Leon Aron is a resident scholar at the American A Historic Disarmament Enterprise Institute. Another version of this essay was published in the April 20 Weekly Standard. For more information on the subject, see Leon Aron, This instance was emblematic of a broader strat- “The Foreign Policy Doctrine of Post-Communist egy of post-Communist Russia. Between 1992 Russia and Its Domestic Context,” in Michael Man- delbaum, ed., The New Russian Foreign Policy, Coun- and 1995, Moscow implemented all Gorbachev’s cil on Foreign Relations, May 1998. commitments and completed contraction of the 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org - 2 - empire inherited from the Soviet Union—a contrac- reduction of the armed forces by 500,000 men, to 1.2 mil- tion remarkable for being undertaken in peacetime and lion. A week later, the minister of defense, General Igor voluntarily. On September 1, 1994, when the last Russ- Rodionov, referred to himself as the “minister of a disinte- ian units left Germany, most troops had already been grating army and a dying fleet.” removed from Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Repub- At the same time, Yeltsin promised what surely will be lic. In four years, Russia repatriated (frequently without the coup de grâce of Russian militarism: the ending of the homes for officers or jobs for their spouses) 800,000 draft and the institution of an all-volunteer armed force of troops, 400,000 civilian personnel, and 500,000 family 600,000 by the year 2000. Even though this plan almost members. certainly will take longer than three years to implement, a Even as Moscow publicly and loudly linked its retreat mere talk by the Russian leader about ending almost two from Estonia to the granting of full civil and political centuries of conscription epitomized the distance that the rights to the ethnic Russians there, it quietly continued new country put between herself and the traditional Russ- to withdraw. In two years, between the end of 1991 and ian (let alone Soviet) militarized state. In the meantime, the last months of 1993, the number of Russian troops in following the Supreme Court’s October 1995 decision Estonia diminished from 35,000—50,000 to 3,000. The that allowed local judges to rule on constitutional matters, departure of the last Russian soldier from the Paldiski Russian judges have thrown out dozens of cases brought submarine training base in Estonia in September 1995 by the army against the “deserters” who exercised their marked the end of Russian presence in East-Central constitutional right to alternative civil service. Europe. The lands acquired and held during two and a The extent of the rout of the formerly invincible half centuries of Russian and Soviet imperial conquests defense sector became evident in the twelve months were restored to the former captive nations. Russia following the 1996 presidential election. An often sick returned to its seventeenth-century borders. president fired two defense ministers, the head of the Unfolding in parallel was demilitarization, historically general staff, and the commanders of the paratroop and unprecedented in speed and scope. Reduction is a ridicu- space forces, and he ordered the retirement of 500 gen- lous euphemism for the methodical starvation, depreda- erals from the immensely bloated Russian field officers tion, and strangulation to which Yeltsin has subjected the corps. Soviet armed forces and the military-industrial complex. No other Russian or Soviet leader, not even Stalin, In a few years, the Russian defense sector—the country’s attempted to remove at the same time as many pillars of omnipotent overlord, the source of national pride, the the national defense establishment for the fear of desta- master of the country’s choicest resources and of the liveli- bilizing the regime (to say nothing of risking one’s hoods of one-third of the Russian population—was neck). With the 40 million votes that he received on reduced to a neglected and humiliated beggar. July 3, 1996, Yeltsin apparently felt no fear. Dictator- Begun with an 80 percent decrease in defense procure- ships and autocracies depend on the army’s good graces; ment ordered by Yegor Gaidar in 1992, the decline in the democracies (even young and imperfect) can afford to share of the Russian gross domestic product spent on the be far less solicitous. military continued from at least 20 percent to 5 percent— 7 percent today. Yeltsin promised to reduce it to 3 percent The Rationale of Disarmament by the year 2000. According to Sergei Rogov, a leading Russian expert and the director of the USA and Canada Russia’s historic disarmament results from political and Institute, the 1996 expenditures for organization and economic democratization, not from a weak economy, as maintenance of Russian armed forces were at least 2.5 often suggested—as if national priorities are determined times lower than in 1990, for procurement and military by economists and as if, throughout human history, eco- construction 9 times, and for research and development nomic rationale has not been invariably and completely 10 times. When, in May 1997, the government imple- overridden by fear, hatred, wounded national honor, mented an across-the-board spending cut (“sequestering”), messianic fervor, or a dictator’s will. In our own century, defense was again hit the hardest: its already delayed where was a “strong economy” and excess wealth in the funding was reduced by another 20 percent. Soviet Union in the 1930s and after World War II; in Along the way, the Russian army shrank from around 4 Vietnam between the 1950s and the 1980s; in Cuba million in January 1992 to about 1.7 million by late 1996. since the 1960s; in Ethiopia under Comrade Mengistu; In July 1997, Yeltsin signed several decrees mandating a in an Armenia fighting for Nagorny-Karabakh; in a - 3 - Pakistan developing a nuclear arsenal; or in an Iraq expect any time soon a reversal in the enormous Chi- starving its people to produce the mother of all weapons? nese military buildup and modernization, helped by a No, the shrinking of the Russian military is due to the burgeoning economy and fueled by resurgent national- weakening of the Russian state’s grip on the economy and ism, with which China, unlike Russia, chose to anchor to the constraints imposed on imperialism, aggressiveness, and unite the nation during its dizzying economic and brutality by public opinion, the free mass media, and transformation. competitive politics, which have forced the Kremlin to Historically, the key feature of a transition from a end the war in Chechnya. Tardy in bestowing on Russia traditional to a modern society and from a village- to its other blessings, Russian democracy has already made an urban-based economy was the “disposal” of surplus high defense expenditures and violent imperial projects peasantry. Everywhere this process was attended with quite difficult to sustain. enormous societal convulsions, revolutions, violence, Most fundamentally, Russian demilitarization is a con- and cruelty (England showing the way.) For Russia, the sequence of rearranged national priorities, of a change in problem was “resolved” by the terror of Stalin’s collec- the criteria of greatness, and of society’s gradual liberation tivization and industrialization.