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Appendix 4: Climate Change October 2013 SHELL CANADA ENERGY Appendix 4: Climate Change Submitted to: Shell Canada Energy Project Number: 13-1346-0001 REPORT APPENDIX 4: CLIMATE CHANGE Table of Contents 1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ......................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Athabasca River Basin Characteristics ................................................................................................................ 2 2.0 ASSESSMENT METHODS ............................................................................................................................................... 3 2.1 Modelling Approach ............................................................................................................................................. 3 2.1.1 Hydrology Model Setup .................................................................................................................................. 5 2.1.2 Model Data Input ............................................................................................................................................ 5 2.1.3 Model Calibration and Validation ................................................................................................................... 6 2.1.3.1 Model Calibration and Validation Statistics ................................................................................................. 9 2.2 Baseline Climate Conditions and Future Climate Scenarios .............................................................................. 23 3.0 RESULTS OF ASSESSMENT OF EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE LOWER ATHABASCA RIVER BASIN ............................................................................................................................................................................. 24 3.1 Baseline Climate for Model Simulations ............................................................................................................ 24 3.2 Estimating Changes in Future Temperature and Precipitation .......................................................................... 25 3.3 Future Daily Climate Scenarios ......................................................................................................................... 27 3.3.1 Effects of Climate Change on Flows in the Lower Athabasca River Basin ................................................... 27 3.3.2 Potential Climate Changes and Water Withdrawals on Athabasca River Flows .......................................... 31 3.3.3 Sensitivity of Flows in the Athabasca River Tributary Streams to Potential Changes in Climate Parameters .................................................................................................................................................. 34 3.3.3.1 Effects of Forecasted Climate Scenarios on the Flows in the South Redclay Lake – 2013 PRM Application Case ....................................................................................................................................... 37 3.3.3.2 Effects of Forecasted Climate Conditions on Flows in the Eymundson Creek – 2013 PRM Application Case ....................................................................................................................................... 37 3.3.3.3 Effects of Forecasted Climate Conditions on Flows in the Pierre River – 2013 PRM Application Case ......................................................................................................................................................... 38 3.3.4 Summary ...................................................................................................................................................... 40 4.0 WATER QUALITY ASSESSMENT ................................................................................................................................. 40 4.1 Modelling Analysis ............................................................................................................................................. 40 4.1.1 Assessment Methods ................................................................................................................................... 40 4.1.2 Results ......................................................................................................................................................... 41 October 2013 Project No. 13-1346-0001 i APPENDIX 4: CLIMATE CHANGE 4.1.3 Summary ...................................................................................................................................................... 42 5.0 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................................ 43 6.0 ABBREVIATIONS .......................................................................................................................................................... 44 TABLES Table 2.1-1 Climate Stations Selected for Sub-Basins Within Hydrologic Regions of Athabasca River Basin ........................ 6 Table 2.1-2 Characteristics of Sub-Basins Used for Model Calibration and Validation ............................................................ 7 Table 2.2-1 Selected Climate Change Models and Scenarios for Athabasca River Basin .................................................... 24 Table 3.3-1 Hydrologic Effects of Forecasted Climate Change on Athabasca River Flows ................................................... 28 Table 3.3-2 Forecasted Percentage Changes in Athabasca River Mean Seasonal Flows at Fort McMurray Compared to Baseline Flows (1961-1990) by the 2050s .................................................................................... 31 Table 3.3-3 Change to Athabasca River Flows in Reach 4 Considering Climate Change Effects in the 2050s ..................... 32 Table 3.3-4 Change to Athabasca River Water Level in Reach 4 Considering Climate Change Effects in 2050s ................. 33 Table 3.3-5 Forecasted Air Temperature, Precipitation, Evapotranspiration and Evaporation Changes in 30 Year Average (2041-2070) from Baseline (1961-1990) for Sensitivity Analysis .......................................................... 36 Table 3.3-6 Effects of Future Climate Scenarios (2041 to 2070) on South Redclay Lake Flows in the Far Future – 2013 PRM Application Case ............................................................................................................................... 39 Table 3.3-7 Effects of Future Climate Scenarios (2041 to 2070) on Eymundson Creek Flows in the Far Future – 2013 PRM Application Case ............................................................................................................................... 39 Table 3.3-8 Effects of Future Climate Scenarios (2041 to 2070) on Pierre River Flows in the Far Future – 2013 PRM Application Case ................................................................................................................................................. 39 FIGURES Figure 2.1-1 Comparisons of Simulated and Observed Flow Statistics and Mean Monthly Flows on Calibration Sub-Basins ......................................................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 2.1-2 Comparisons of Simulated and Observed Flow Statistics and Mean Monthly Flows on Validation Sub-Basins ......................................................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 3.2-1 Percent Changes in Average Annual Precipitation for the 2050s at Index Climate Stations ............................... 26 Figure 3.2-2 Changes in Average Annual Temperature for the 2050s at Index Climate Stations ........................................... 26 Figure 3.3-1 Forecasted Effects of Climate Change on Mean Monthly Flows ......................................................................... 30 Figure 3.3-2 Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Forecasted by General Circulation Models ..................................... 35 October 2013 Project No. 13-1346-0001 ii APPENDIX 4: CLIMATE CHANGE ATTACHMENTS Attachment A Athabasca River Basin Surficial Geology Attachment B Hydrometric Stations in the Athabasca River Basin Attachment C Climate Stations in the Athabasca River Basin Attachment D Calibrated Hydrologic Simulation Program-Fortran Model Parameters for Athabasca River Basin Attachment E Climate Change Forecasts at Index Climate Stations Attachment F Climate Change Update Attachment G Water Quality Figures October 2013 Project No. 13-1346-0001 iii APPENDIX 4: CLIMATE CHANGE 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background Shell Canada Energy (Shell) submitted the Applications and supporting Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for the Jackpine Mine Expansion (JME) and Pierre River Mine (PRM) Project in December 2007. As part of the regulatory process for the PRM Application, the PRM Joint Review Panel (JRP) requested additional Information in October 2012. The reassessment of the effect of changes in water level in the Athabasca River and availability of water caused by climate change for PRM - using the most up-to-date data to identify potential trends using outputs from
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