Democratic Party of Moldova

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Subject: Moldova Election Update Date: Friday, February 22, 2019 at 8:21:23 AM Eastern Standard Time From: Democratic Party of Moldova

DEMOCRATIC PARTY &4 OF MOLDOVA PDM

ELECTION UPDATE, FEBRUARY 2019

Dear Friend of Moldova,

With this weekend's consequential parliamentary elections, we wanted to share with you this "non-paper" from our team on the electoral climate here in Moldova.

The paper addresses a series of topics, starting with our campaign team's observations on the current political context. Moreover, the paper provides an analysis of the most recent polls and addresses some concerns expressed by election observation missions. Finally, the paper approaches the issue of campaign incidents, on which we have tried to provide regular updates, and ends with the Democratic Party of Moldova's commitment toward free and fair elections as the basis for future Euro-Atlantic integration.

The PDM Team

This material is distributed by Cogent Strategies on behalf of the Democratic Party of Moldova. Additional information is available at the Department of Justice, Washington, DC.

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ELECTORAL DEVELOPMENTS IN THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA

THE COMMITMENT OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY TOWARDS THE COUNTRY’S EURO- ATLANTIC FUTURE

OBSERVATIONS ON THE POLITICAL CONTEXT: ELECTORAL CAMPAIGN IN FULL SWING

As parliamentary elections in the Republic of Moldova are scheduled for February 24, all political parties are fully engaged in an electoral campaign that is set to be decisive for the country’s future development path. The upcoming parliamentary elections will be organized under a mixed voting system, which involves the election of 50 representatives on the national constituency, through party-list proportional representation, and 51 representatives on single-member constituencies, which also include three constituencies abroad. On the day of parliamentary elections, a referendum will also be organized, consulting Moldovan voters over the initiative of the previous ruling majority to reduce the number of Members of the Parliament from 101 to 61 and to introduce a mechanism allowing citizens to democratically revoke their representatives in Parliament.

Following previous recommendations of the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) and Council of Europe’s Venice Commission, the Electoral Code of the Republic of Moldova was amended to include specific provisions on the official start of the electoral campaign, which was established on January 25, 2019. So far, the electoral campaign has been marked by heated debates and political tensions but has also provided the opportunity to 15 political parties and 320 candidates on single-member constituencies to present their political platforms and to engage directly with Moldovan citizens. While political stakeholders remain divided on either political or geo-political grounds, the future of the Moldovan democracy is at stake. The continuity of Western-leaning coalitions, which have contributed greatly to the country’s modernization in the past decade, is challenged by increasingly vocal populist groups, mainly relying on a promised shift towards Russia.

The appeal of populism during the electoral campaign is high, shaping Moldova’s narrative abroad and casting doubts on some of the most sensitive policy areas, despite legitimate efforts of the pro-European Government led by the Democratic Party of Moldova (PDM) to tackle corruption and lack of transparency, to ensure free and fair elections, to pursue justice independence or to create a stable and predictable framework for the freedom of media.

In response, PDM has introduced a “Pro Moldova” campaign, as a commitment to close the void opposition between ‘pro-Europeans’ and ‘pro-Russians’, in order to encourage greater focus on the country’s real needs and challenges. PDM is currently running on the “Pro Moldova” platform, which is firmly anchored in the party’s strong commitment towards Moldova’s Euro Atlantic integration, as the only undisputable path towards reform and progress. To this end, the electoral strategy of PDM relies on the goal of continued stability and modernization efforts, through the implementation of reforms driven by the country’s partnerships with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

While in Government, since January 2016, PDM has proven unparalleled performance as regards the country’s economic recovery, stabilization and reintegration perspectives. As the country’s economy has recovered from recession in 2015, registering GDP growths of around 4% in 2017 and 2018, Prime Minister Pavel Filip has recently concluded, in his last mandate review, that the average salary in Moldova has grown from 4600 MDL (approximately 270 USD) to almost 7000 MDL (approximately 410 USD), a 52% growth, in the past three years, whereas the pensions reform has led to a 30% growth for certain categories of beneficiaries and to a 50% overall growth of the average pension. Budgetary revenues have registered a growth of 15 billion MDL (approximately 879 million USD) in the past three years, allowing the Government to increase public sector wages, consolidate social support schemes and introduce national programs targeting infrastructure, health and youth development. Foreign and national investors have regained trust in

This material is distributed by Cogent Strategies on behalf of the Democratic Party of Moldova. ^ Additional information is available at the Department of Justice, Washington, DC. Received by N SD/F ARA Registration Unit 02/22/2019 11:35:12 AM Received by NSD/FARA Registration Unit 02/22/2019 11:35:12 AM

the Moldovan economy, which led to the creation of 170 000 new jobs since the beginning of 2016. Achievements of the PDM-led Government extend to all sectors of the Moldovan society, yet the underlining of few economic indicators serve the understanding of the party’s current political stance and commitment towards continuity. As a result, PDM’s electoral platform has been built on 9 key pillars that the review of existing policies or the introduction of new ones, in areas such as: the social security system, modern infrastructure and regional development, healthcare, education, economy and business, agriculture, rule of law and justice independence, political reform, Moldova’s European and global dimension.

ELECTORAL PERSPECTIVES, AS REFLECTED BY MOST RECENT POLLS

Recent surveys have shown that the Democratic Party of Moldova has registered a growth in electoral preferences of Moldovan voters, currently standing a second chance in electoral rankings. Six recent polls measuring general tendencies - thus excluding specific preferences which may occur in single member constituencies - confirm that at least three political parties will be represented in the next Moldovan Parliament, while smaller political parties may win some seats in electoral constituencies.

The latest poll, presented by I MAS on February 18 and conducted in cooperation with the US company Lake Research Partners, reveals that voting intentions for the Democratic Party of Moldova (PDM) have reached 19.4% - the party ranking second at national level, after the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM). This is the first poll in the past few months that reveals a significant difference between PDM and the ACUM Electoral Bloc, in PDM’s favor. PDM has registered a 1 % growth in less than two weeks, whereas PSRM has dropped by 2.5% in the same timeframe. The ACUM Electoral Bloc has also dropped by 2.4%, according to IMAS.

Elowever, a worrying tendency concerns the percentage of undecided voters, which has grown by 5.1% in less than two weeks, adding to the general lack of predictability of the February 24 elections. Moreover, the latest IMAS poll also credits the Sor Party with 7.5% in voters’ intentions, setting the ground for the accession of at least four political parties in the Moldovan Parliament after the February 24 elections.

Lake Research IMAS Institute of International iData| ASD Partners & Public Policy Republican IMAS (IPP) Institute (IRI)

February 18 February 7 February 7 February 5 January 30 January 29

Party of Socialists of 26% 28.5% 20% 39% 32% 49.2% the Republic of Moldova (PSRM)

Democratic Party of 19.4% 18.4% 9% 14% 16.1% 19.3% Moldova (PDM)

Action and Solidarity N/A N/A N/A 13% N/A N/A Party (PAS)

Dignity and Truth N/A N/A N/A 9% N/A N/A Platform Party (PPDA)

“ACUM” Sectoral Bloc 16.8% 19.2% 11.7% N/A 20% 19.1% (PAS & PPDA)

Undecided Voters 19.8% 14.7% 34.5% 9% 14% 17.6%

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Presented on February 7, the previous poll conducted by IMAS at the request of the Foundation for a Modern Democracy confirmed that the majority of Moldovan voters (28.5%) would have voted for the Socialist Party. PDM would have scored 18.4%, while the ACUM Electoral Bloc would have ranked second, with 19.2% of the votes. According to IMAS’ February 7 poll, the Sor Party would have scored 6.7% of the votes (past the electoral threshold), whereas the Communist Party would have come close to the electoral threshold, with a score of 5.8%. The poll presented on February 7 revealed 14.7% undecided voters - which was still a large percentage at that time. Both IMAS polls have been based on a 2.5% margin of error.

Also presented on February 7, a poll conducted by the Institute of Public Policy (IPP), with a 3% error, showed that only 20% of respondents would have voted for the Socialists on February 24, while 11.7% would have voted for the ACUM bloc and 9% for PDM. Most trusted Moldovan politicians, according to the IPP poll, were President Igor Dodon (32.8%), PSRM Chairwoman Zinaida GreceanTi (20.7%), Mayor of Orhei Man Sor (16.9%), Prime Minister Pavel Filip (16.1%), PDM Chairman Vlad Plahotniuc (15.5%), followed by ACUM co-Chairs Maia Sandu (14.8%) and Andrei Nastase (14.5%). However, the IPP poll registered 34.5% undecided voters. A separate poll, presented by the International Republican Institute on February 5, concluded that 39% of Moldovans would vote for the Socialists, 14% would vote for PDM, 13% for PAS, 9% for PPDA (although PAS and PPDA will run together as an electoral bloc) and 5% for the Sor Party (close to the 6% threshold) - with 9% undecided voters.

A poll conducted by a private company called iData and presented on January 30 showed that PSRM would have scored 32%, ACUM 20% and PDM 16.1%, while the Sor Party would have scored 4.3%. 14% of the respondents were undecided, while 7.9% had no intentions to cast a ballot on February 24, with an error of 2.82%. iData, which conducted an independent poll, has assessed that, if the Sor Party does not pass the electoral threshold (for party lists), the future Parliament may have 23 PSRM MPs, 15 ACUM MPs and 12 PDM MPs, plus the MPs elected in single-member constituencies, where the Sor Party still stands a chance. iData also measured people’s preferences for the country’s development path, concluding that the “Pro Moldova” option (synonymous with ruling PDM’s electoral program) was preferred by 38.6% of respondents, while 24.8% of the respondents still preferred the pro-European path and 21.9% were leaning towards the Russian Federation.

A poll presented on January 29 by the Moldovan Association of Sociologists and Demographers (ASD) predicted that the Democratic Party of Moldova may come second in voters’ preferences in parliamentary elections, with 19.3%, while the ACUM electoral bloc would come third, with 19.1% of the total number of votes casted by decided citizens. The difference is rather insignificant, considering the poll’s 3% error, but it is still important in terms of perception, especially as PDM gained 1.2% compared to December 2018, while ACUM has lost 3.1%. PSRM enjoyed the most significant support from voters - 49.2%, whereas the Sor Party came fourth, at 4.4%, with limited but possible chances of gaining 6% of the votes. The ASD poll was conducted on January 4-14, on a representative sample of 1179 respondents and registered 17.6% undecided voters. ASD has also measured the people’s support for the referendum organized on February 24 for reducing the number of MPs from 101 to 61. According to the ASD poll, around 70% of all Moldovans support the initiative.

The Socialists’ Party of Moldova (PSRM) maintains pole position in the upcoming parliamentary elections, at least on the national constituency. PSRM’s ratings fluctuate from 20% (IPP) to as much as 49.2% (ASD), allowing the fair assumption that PSRM enjoys around 28-30% electoral support. Under these conditions, PSRM would not be able to form a majority alone. Flowever, a majority coalition between PSRM and PDM or the ACUM bloc (PAS and PPDA) is highly unlikely. Thus, two scenarios are possible: PSRM goes directly in opposition; PSRM MPs start transitioning towards a new coalition.

It is not unrealistic for the Democrats (PDM) to come second, as the ACUM bloc has started to lose momentum: PDM scores between 9% (IPP) and 19.4% (IMAS), realistically around 15-17%. In the end, 3

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more people are likely to vote for PDM because of the “spiral of silence” phenomenon (potential voters not acknowledging preferences that can be perceived as controversial). However, PDM will still need a partner party to form a majority, yet the ACUM bloc does not seem willing to join forces with the Democrats. On February 5, in an interview for a Ukrainian outlet, Parliament Speaker Andrian Candu declared that PDM does not exclude a cooperation with the ACUM bloc in the future Parliament, stating that he believed that ACUM representatives will chose Moldova’s interests over “emotions and political or personal interests”. He also discussed the option of a minority party forming the government based on the support of other parliamentary parties, without forming a per se coalition.

Maia Sandu’s PAS and Andrei Nastase’s PPDA (forming the ACUM electoral bloc) are losing electoral momentum, as shown by polls, and there is no guarantee that the bloc’s score will perfectly match a PAS plus PPDA score. One can presume that ACUM would realistically score around 14-16%, still not enough for a parliamentary majority that would appoint the Government. The most likely scenario for Maia Sandu and Andrei Nastase is to go in opposition, unless another decision is made last minute.

ELECTION OBSERVATION MISSIONS

As reported by the Moldovan Central Electoral Commission, by February 15 have been accredited 667 international observers for the parliamentary elections: 17 diplomatic missions, 6 international governmental organizations, 15 foreign electoral authorities and 4 non governmental organizations. In addition, 2353 national observers were also accredited for the elections taking place on Moldovan territory and 81 national observers for elections organized abroad. National observers were registered by 6 associations. Some observers have started to publish preliminary conclusions or reports on the electoral campaign.

An Interim Report issued by the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), as a result of the OSCE Election Observation Mission to Moldova, brings out a series of issues that have been addressed by other missions as well, concerning the electoral process in Moldova. These issues must be addressed from alternative points of view, considering their potential to influence voters, despite limited proof presented. According to OSCE/ODIHR, interlocutors, “the elections are taking place in an environment dominated by the country’s poor economic performance and growing public distrust in state institutions” - however, this perspective has serious limitations, considering that the Moldovan economy is rapidly growing and has been recovering in the past three years. On the “growing public distrust in state institutions”, it must be noted that, according to polls, “distrust” is fluctuating rather than growing, and the referendum organized on February 24 will be another step in a long series to address this issue.

As regards to the legal framework for elections and current electoral system in Moldova, it is worth mentioning that the legislative package launching the electoral reform was adopted after a long period of public debates, as well as comprehensive consultations with experts in the field and relevant foreign partners. Thus, in order not to diverge from the norms of international law, Moldovan legislators reached out to the European Commission for Democracy through Law, known as the Venice Commission, requesting additional expertise on the legislative draft. Further on, the set of recommendations conveyed by the Venice Commission were presented and analyzed during public debates, which united local experts in electoral legislation and constitutional law, representatives of ethnic groups and members of the civil society - then adopted in a large proportion. Public debates have been organized both by the Moldovan Parliament and by Moldovan non-governmental associations.

With reference to the statement that “some previous ODIHR and Council of Europe recommendations have not been fully implemented” which “include periodic review of constituency boundaries”, should be mentioned that the Article 80 of the Moldovan Electoral Code establishes the criteria and requirements for the creation of the electoral constituencies, including inter alia that ‘the revision of the boundaries of the uninominal constituencies cannot may be made in less than one year before the ordinary elections’, as

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recommended by the Code of Good Practice in Electoral Matters ‘at least every ten years, preferably outside election periods’.

Several ODIHR interlocutors alleged that PDM gained an advantage in the elections as their billboards in support of the referendum, erected before the start of the campaign, featured their national list and candidates in single member constituencies. On this issue, it must be explained that the billboards feature trusted exponents of the party, endorsing the referendum. Other political parties were free to endorse the referendum as well. Moreover, the political opposition has accused PDM of employing public and administrative resources in order to advance the party’s political agenda during the campaign, mainly based on the argument that government employees up to the state secretary rank take part in the electoral campaign, while being paid with public money for ‘doing their jobs’. While it is true that some state secretaries are actively involved in the electoral campaign, supporting PDM, it must be mentioned that those state secretaries are on unpaid leave and do not use public resources (cars, telephones), having employed only personal resources or party logistics - such as the campaign bus.

Separate lines of criticism include the fact that Moldovan citizens living abroad are not able to vote with expired documents, which limits their constitutional right to vote. Different numbers have been circulated in the public space by the Moldovan opposition, suggesting that hundreds of thousands of Moldovan citizens will not be able to vote on February 24. However, data from the previous presidential elections in 2016 shows that, in the second round of elections, out of the 138350 voters who intended to cast their ballots, only 135 had expired documents.

Other observations are necessary to complete the broader picture. The electoral legislation of Moldova provisions that only citizens with valid identity documents are able to vote and that the Central Electoral Commission is not entitled to issue waivers or exemptions from existing electoral provisions. Law no. 273- XI11/1994 regarding national documents states that identity documents past their expiration date are considered invalid - by consequence, the law also provisions that the use of invalid identity documents is considered a breach of the law. The Moldovan Constitution guarantees the right to vote of all Moldovan citizens, yet the Moldovan citizenship can only be proven through a valid identity document.

The Code of Good Practice in Electoral Matters - Guidelines and Explanatory Report, adopted by the Venice Commission at its 52nd Session (Venice, 18-19 October 2002) notes on the “Organization and operation of polling stations” chapter (3.4) that (105) “assembly observation missions have also noticed several cases of technical irregularities such as wrongly printed or stamped ballot boxes, overly complex ballot papers, unsealed ballot boxes, inadequate ballot papers or boxes, misuse of ballot boxes, insufficient means of identification of voters and absence of local observers”. The 2010 OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission Final Report on the early parliamentary elections of 28 November 2010 in Moldova recommends that “efforts should be maintained to ensure that all citizens are in possession of valid identification documents. The practice of allowing voters to vote with expired IDs should be reconsidered to avoid any possible abuse and to limit the use of supplementary voter lists".

Moreover, in order to enable as many Moldovan citizens as possible to vote in the February 24 parliamentary elections, the number of polling stations outside the country was increased by 25%, whereas the number of ballots was increased from 3000 per polling station to 5000 per polling station - almost double. Thus, whereas the maximum number of voters abroad was 300,000 in 2016, during the presidential elections, in 2019 up to 600,000 Moldovan citizens will be able to vote outside the country.

The Democratic Party of Moldova has maintained openness to engage with national and international observers, provided that unbiased reports help support Moldovan authorities in the process of ensuring free and fair elections. However, PDM has been vocal over biased reports that serve political interests rather than presenting facts and providing constructive recommendations. Moreover, PDM has informed electoral observers of all cases of campaign incidents that targeted the political party.

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REGISTERED CAMPAIGN INCIDENTS

During the night of January 28 to January 29, the personal vehicle of Maxim Iordan, son of PDM candidate Serghei Iordan (Constituency 10, Balti, Moldova), was allegedly set on fire by unknown individuals. Both Maxim and Serghei Iordan believe that the incident was, in fact, an act of political revenge. Fortunately, no one was hurt in the incident, as the car was empty, and the fire was extinguished quickly. Law enforcement authorities have initiated a criminal investigation on the January 29 incident. However, the Police had no suspect. Alexandru Pinzari, Police Chief, declared that police officers found some evidence that the fire was indeed set by someone, such as “micro-traces of gasoline, matchsticks, boxes of matchsticks, a piece of deteriorated plastic material”.

During a press conference held on January 29, the Police announced that three other incidents of electoral nature have been registered so far: ACUM candidate Dinu Plingau was verbally and physically assaulted by three individuals during a speech in Edinet; a billboard featuring ACUM candidate Octavian TTai in Ungheni was deteriorated; ACUM candidate Valeriu Munteanu was physically assaulted in Orhei. The incident in Balti was the last one in an unfortunate series, just a few days into the electoral campaign.

PDM reacted by condemning all acts of violence during the campaign. In a statement released on January 29, the Democratic Party of Moldova has categorically denounced the incident in Balti and condemned all acts of violence during the first few days of the electoral campaign. PDM has stated that “any type of aggression in the context of the electoral campaign are reprehensible and must be investigated swiftly by law enforcement authorities, so that those who are found guilty can be held liable”.

Concurrently, PDM has called on all political parties and candidates to pursue a fair and civilized electoral campaign, abstaining from any acts of aggression, from hate speech and from unfounded allegations targeting electoral competitors. PDM underlined that “it is important that citizens are informed of the projects proposed by political parties for the future of Moldova, in a calm and law-abiding manner. PDM believes that all acts of violence during the campaign - including aggressive discourse and incitement to hatred and violence - have a negative impact on the electoral climate, to the detriment of citizens”.

PDM was the first party to sign the Code of electoral conduct put forward by the Central Electoral Commission. Moreover, since December 2018, before the start of the electoral period, PDM has launched a public call for decency and upholding the law during the campaign. As part of the January 29 statement, PDM has called again on the political opposition to join the party’s plea for calm and non-violence and to condemn any campaign incidents, regardless of who is found guilty.

Since the January 29 incident, PDM has reported several cases of vandalism and smaller-scale incidents to electoral observers and has publicly reiterated the call for civilized campaigning and respect of the electoral legislation.

COMMITMENT TOWARDS FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS AS BASIS FOR FUTURE EURO- ATLANTIC INTEGRATION

On February 1, EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini, warned that would-be member states from the former Soviet Union must hold free and fair elections to be eligible for future membership. Mogherini was referring to Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, the three Eastern Partners that signed Association Agreements with the EU in 2014, adding that while the EU does not get involved in domestic political agendas, “free, fair elections, this is our compass”: “all that is said about the importance for the European Union - not only for the European Union, also for our partner organizations be it the Council of Europe, the OSCE or other partners in the world - the absolute importance we attach to the holding of free, fair and transparent elections. This is our compass, and this is what we discuss constantly with our partners not only in Europe but also everywhere in the world.”

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PDM shares the belief that free and fair elections represent the basis for future Euro Atlantic integration of Moldova and not only - in a troubled region such as Eastern Europe, free and fair elections limit malign interference and ensure the legitimacy of governments that will continue facing regional challenges. To this end, as a political party, PDM has committed to encourage the organization of free and fair elections. While in Government, PDM leaders have pushed for the consolidation of the Central Electoral Commission and have supported legislation to strengthen the capacities of state authorities involved in the organization of elections.

Moldova’s future in close relations with the European Union and the United States of America are key to the country’s future. Thus, democratic processes should fully reflect this vision, through alignment with Western democratic values that Moldova aspires to. The February 24 parliamentary elections have generated high expectations in this regard, as international partners will closely follow the electoral process.

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