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Central Asia 2020: Trends and Challenges

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Central Asia 2020: Trends and Challenges The past 2019 for Central Asia marked by significant integration activities and domestic political developments in each of the five countries. The CABAR.asia analytical platform interviewed prominent political scientists of the region to note significant events of 2019 and to analyze their developments and trends for 2020. Follow us on Facebook What happened in Central Asian countries in 2019? According to Kazakh experts the landmark event of 2019 in Kazakhstan was certainly the beginning of political transit process in the country. The most significant events of last year for the country were the following: Nursultan Nazarbayev’s statement of March 19, 2019, on the resignation from the post of president, the holding of early elections, resulting in the election of the new president of the country, Kasym-Zhomart Tokayev. Central Asia 2020: Trends and Challenges Kasym-Zhomart Tokaev at the oath ceremony to the people of Kazakhstan. Photo: akorda.kz In the light of these processes the political field mightily reconfigured. Analysts note the continuation of the following trends: generations change, the enhanced youth participation and the growth of civic activity among the population. In foreign policy the new government confirmed the strategic nature of Kazakhstan’s relations with Russia and China and the country’s participation in Eurasian integration processes and the “Belt and Road” Initiative; the Astana process in Syria continues. 2019 in Kyrgyzstan was marked by a further strengthening of presidential power. Last year did not demonstrate significant economic results or major strategic achievements Central Asia 2020: Trends and Challenges development-wise. The arrest of former president Almazbek Atambayev can be named as one of the main political events of last year in the country. According to experts, the use of law enforcement and judicial bodies for political purposes has increased. On August 8, 2019, former president Almazbek Atambayev was arrested as a result of a two-day assault on his residence in the village of Koy-Tash by law enforcement agencies. Photo: 24.kg Thanks to Kyrgyz journalists, 2019 also brought corruption talks to a new level. However, the whole year passed under an endless and almost inconclusive investigation of the relevant bodies to question the former deputy head of the customs service, Rayimbek Matraimov. According to Tajik analysts over the past year Tajikistan has witnessed a tendency of increased social tension, mainly of the population’s most vulnerable segments. This phenomenon was provoked by the government actions making important decisions for the country without proper analysis and consideration of possible social consequences. For example issues related to the Internet, money transfers, SIM cards, and new domestic passports. A key event in the country was the launch of the Rogun hydroelectric station’s second unit Central Asia 2020: Trends and Challenges in September 2019. Tajikistan is steadily making every effort to complete the construction of this hydraulic structure, which soon can turn the country into a major producer of cheap and environmentally friendly electricity in the region. A key event in the country was the launch of the Rogun hydroelectric station’s second unit in September 2019. Photo: president.tj Another significant trend is the revitalization of underground groups of religious extremists in the republic. ISIS terrorist organization claimed responsibility for series of terrorist attacks and riots in Tajik prisons that took place last year. At the end of the year an armed group attacked an Ishkobod outpost located on the Tajik-Uzbek border. In 2019 there was a surge in cross-border conflicts in the north of the country with the participation of residents and border services of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan that resulted in injuries and fatalities of citizens of both countries. Despite the political will to demarcate and delimit state borders, this issue remains a matter of concern. Foreign policy has noticed some warming in relations with Tehran undertaken under the influence of Tajikistan’s CIS and SCO partners. Another important trend in 2019 was the Central Asia 2020: Trends and Challenges further growth of Tajikistan’s economic dependence on China, the growth of debt obligations, the transfer of several fields for further development to Chinese enterprises, and the holding of joint military exercises with China on the country’s territory. In Turkmenistan 2019 was marked by the Caspian Economic Forum and a meeting of the heads of governments of the CIS countries. However, according to the Turkmen expert, such protocol events do not affect the lives of ordinary civilians. Turkmenistan experienced great economic difficulties last year. The list of scarce food products increased in 2019. This year has become worse in terms of economic potential and providing the population with food. People continue to leave the country. The most popular migration destinations are Russia and Northern Cyprus. It is difficult for Turkmen citizens to obtain a residence permit in Turkey due to the large influx of migrants from Central Asia. Experts from Uzbekistan noted a couple of the country’s most notable political events in 2019. The elections to the Oliy Majlis (national parliament) and local parliaments were held in Uzbekistan last year. These elections were the first parliamentary elections in Uzbekistan to which the full OSCE /ODIHR observer mission was sent. In November 2019 the second Consultative Meeting was held in Tashkent with the participation of heads of all five countries in the region. The meeting was postponed several times, yet it took place and had a rather serious resonance. Central Asia 2020: Trends and Challenges Second Consultative Meeting of Heads of State in Tashkent. Photo: president.uz In 2019 the country adopted the tax code that has been developed for the last two years. The fiscal policy sets the main priorities in the economy. Uzbekistan also outlined a large program for the privatization of state assets, about 300 state enterprises are for sale. Upcoming events and trends in the countries of the region in 2020 Kazakhstan will hold a national census in 2020, which is scheduled for the beginning of the year. The previous one was held in 2009. The results of the census will help to obtain a complete and more accurate picture of the demographic and sociocultural processes in the country for the development of a state policy, which is the closest to modern realities. According to a Kazakh expert, economy-wise Kazakhstan is expecting difficult and depressing times. In the social sphere, amid growing social imbalances, migration outflows and civic activity outbursts will intensify. Central Asia 2020: Trends and Challenges A positive trend would be the increased public attention on the awareness of its national identity in various aspects. Among the current events on the political agenda in Kazakhstan are the upcoming congress of the Nur-Otan party and public battles related to the country’s parliamentary elections. Experts from Kyrgyzstan unanimously noted 2020 under the sign of parliamentary elections. The latter will determine the alignment of elite groups for the next two to three years. The current parliament is the product of behind-the-scenes agreements of regional elites and the formation of lists of the former president Almazbek Atambayev’s administration. Since then, the weight (electoral, financial, organizational) of various influence groups has changed, and accordingly, all this should get a legitimate form in the elections. Also, under the elections sign, one should expect a crystallization of the president’s position on the case of Rayimbek Matraimov (this issue has become a litmus test for him), and on the issue of his support or cooperation with any party. In 2020 the third Consultative Meeting of Central Asian Heads of State is due to take place in Bishkek. The summit will attract a certain interest in the region. Experts await the meeting of leaders this time to have a more practically oriented part. According to Tajik experts, the socio-political life of Tajikistan in 2020 promises to be busy. The country should hold parliamentary and presidential elections this year. The parliamentary elections will take place on March 1 – the Majlisi Namoyandagon, the Majlis of regions, cities, and districts, as well as jamoats. Political parties are becoming more active today, most of which held their election congresses, prepared an election program and decided on the party-list candidates. Presidential elections are to be held traditionally in November. Also, in October 2020, Tajikistan is planning a census of population and housing. The previous census took place in 2010. The use of modern technologies during the census would be a feature of the event. This year for Tajikistan will be marked by a chairmanship in regional organizations. Starting January 1, 2020, Tajikistan will chair the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea, and the Istanbul Process for Afghanistan. In 2020, the country will host a meeting of the SCO and CSTO heads of state. Experts assume convening an international high-level conference in Dushanbe within the framework of the fourth global water initiative of Tajikistan “Water for sustainable development” 2018-2028. Central Asia 2020: Trends and Challenges In the coming year Tajikistan will again face a choice – whether to join the EAEU, try to balance its foreign policy in some other way, or continue its ever-increasing tilt towards China. It is unlikely that the decisions will be final in the pre-election year, but the Tajik government will have to take some steps in one direction or another. Turkmenistan seriously discusses the issue of releasing the exchange rate. If authorities don’t let go at all and make it “floating,” at least they will drastically reduce it. According to a Turkmen expert, there are almost no foreign exchange reserves in the country.
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