RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
LIVING THE DREAM GLOBAL VINEYARD INDEX 2014
INDEX RESULTS: MARKET FOCUS: INVESTMENT: NEW WORLD ON TOP FRANCE AND ITALY WINE V VINE 2
KEY FINDINGS NEW WORLD ON TOP Our Global Vineyard Index records another year of solid Index: The price of a lifestyle growth in vineyard values, with wine-making regions in vineyard increased by 4.5% on average in the year to June 2014, the US and New Zealand leading the rankings. down from 6.8% last year Vineyards are increasingly seen by Knight Frank’s Global Vineyard Index Top performer: Sonoma County the world’s wealthy as a means of tracks the change in the price of ‘lifestyle’ in the US recorded the strongest broadening their property portfolio whilst or ‘boutique’ vineyards, our definition increase in vineyard prices year- providing an opportunity to learn and excludes small “hobby” producers and on-year, rising by 17.9% explore a new industry or passion. But larger commercial enterprises. aside from wine’s profitability what return Vineyards falling within our definition Buyers: Asian buyers are looking can a vineyard provide? usually comprise 2-15 hectares of vines beyond Bordeaux to the US, Italy, New Zealand and Australia THE KNIGHT FRANK GLOBAL VINEYARD INDEX France and Italy are still top of Q2 2014 buyers’ wish lists Lifestyle vineyard , some regions Wine region Typical property requirement Grape Varieties* % annual price change such as Piedmont have seen VINEYARD Pinot Noir. Chardonnay, SONOMA Californian Ranch style property with VALUES prices decline creating potential swimming pool Cabernet Sauvignon, COUNTY, US Zinfandel, Syrah, Viognier 17.9% % change to buying opportunities Q2 2013 Built in last 20 years, 3-5 bedrooms, good Sauvignon Blanc, HAWKES BAY, Chardonnay, Pinot Gris, NEW ZEALAND quality kitchen, outdoor living area 17.6% Investment: Vine (up by 4.5%) Merlot, Shiraz
outperformed wine (up by 3%) in BAROSSA, Top quality modern residence with guest Shiraz, the year to June but both were AUSTRALIA accommodation Cabernet Sauvignon 14.0% eclipsed by classic cars MARLBOROUGH, A 4-5 bedroom residence in good condition with Sauvignon Blanc, NEW ZEALAND accommodation for vineyard staff/managers Pinot Noir 13.3%
Rural property, 4+ bedrooms, with strong Chianti Classico, CHIANTI, architecture, with a cellar and a large Sangiovese, Trebbiano ITALY swimming pool 12.0%
Cabernet Sauvignon, NAPA VALLEY, Modernised “farmhouse” with additional land Malbec, Merlot, Cabernet US (either for horses or additional vines) Franc, Zinfandel, Syrah 11.1%
THE RHÔNE Classic 18th century chateau with a Grenache, Syrah, Marsanne, VALLEY, FRANCE swimming pool and outbuildings Roussane and Viognier 5.6%
BRUNELLO, Period property with 4+ bedrooms, good gardens Sangiovese ITALY with swimming pool and potential for a B&B 4.0%
Merlot, Cabernet Sauvignon, BORDEAUX, Traditional stone house/chateau-style, gardens, proximity to city and transport links Cabernet Franc, Sauvignon 0.0% FRANCE Blanc, Semillon
BURGUNDY, A 4+ bedroom property with secondary Pinot Noir, Chardonnay, FRANCE accommodation for visitors/staff Gamay and Aligoté 0.0%
A modernised colonial-style property. If no MENDOZA, property on site a bespoke luxury home is Malbec, “Sonoma County in ARGENTINA usually built Cabernet Sauvignon 0.0% the US recorded the PIEDMONT, Renovated farmhouse with privacy and at least Metodo Classico strongest price growth ITALY 3-4 beds -8.0%
Well positioned properties with excellent views. Cabernet Sauvignon, Shiraz, with vineyard values STELLENBOSCH, Style of house is not as important as position SOUTH AFRICA Merlot, Sauvignon Blanc, -10.0% rising by 17.9% in the and views Chenin Blanc, Chardonnay Carmenere, Cabernet Self-build property of bespoke design often of 12 months to June.” COLCHAGUA Sauvignon, Merlot, Malbec, -14.0% VALLEY, CHILE colonial style Syrah
**most common, not an exhaustive list Source: See back page GLOBAL VINEYARD INDEX 3 RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH with a detached family residence on the ‘Down under’ on top estate and, on occasion, outbuildings including a winery or bottling plant. These Alongside Sonoma County, the index’s ‘lifestyle’ vineyards need to do more than antipodean markets performed strongly just ‘wash their face’ instead they must with Hawkes Bay, Marlborough and produce an annual return, not simply a few Barossa Valley recording price growth bottles for family and friends. of 17.6%, 14% and 13.3% respectively over the 12-month period. In Knight Frank’s experience lifestyle vineyards are acquired by a mix of buyers, The economies of both New Zealand and some are purchased as an early retirement Australia are going through a buoyant 4.5% project by wealthy individuals in their late phase with GDP growth estimated to forties or early fifties, keen to embrace a reach 3.5% and 2.6% respectively this THE AVERAGE CHANGE ‘hands-on’ approach and with the capital year according to the OECD. Interest OF THE PRICE OF A LIFE- to fund it. Others are purchased as holiday from international buyers is also STYLE VINEYARD IN THE homes which are visited three or more strengthening, in particular from China, YEAR TO JUNE 2014 times each year, with a manager employed the US and France, and global demand to oversee the day-to-day running of the for Sauvignon Blanc and Pinot Noir estate, including both production and sales. is swelling.
Now in its third year, Knight Frank’s Global Back in Europe, vineyard prices in Chianti Vineyard Index covers 14 key wine-making increased the most, by 12% in the year regions worldwide, covering both the to June, followed by The Rhône Valley world’s most established ‘old world’ markets which saw prices accelerate by 5.6% such as Bordeaux and Chianti as well as over the same period. Both markets tick instead to Provence, Languedoc and newer regions such as Colchagua Valley in many boxes on buyers’ wishlists in terms The Rhône Valley where there is greater Chile and Mendoza in Argentina. of views, landscape and property type choice and they are within easy reach of (modernised farmhouses that retain their the Cote d’Azur. architectural value) and crucially both Index results The weakest-performing markets were regions are easily accessible. On average the value of vineyards covered Piedmont in Italy, Stellenbosch in South by the Knight Frank Global Vineyard Index France’s most favoured wine-making Africa and Colchagua in Chile. Here, price rose by 4.5% in the 12 months to June regions, Bordeaux and Burgundy, saw growth fell into negative territory, declining 2014, slipping slightly from the 6.3% rate prices hold firm year-on-year. Although by 8%, 10% and 14% respectively on of growth recorded a year earlier. The slight demand varies significantly from one an annual basis. Local agents report dip in performance can be explained by AOP in France to another, the dominance that global economic sentiment has had the lower rates of growth amongst the top of large commercial setups limits the a bearing on buyer confidence and the performing regions which in 2013 were in opportunities for lifestyle vineyard owners availability of finance is tight. excess of 25%. in both these regions, with some looking The price falls in the Western Cape Despite the slower rate of growth, the are attributable to strong harvests and proportion of wine regions that recorded FIGURE 1 an oversupply of grapes. This has positive price growth increased from 60% Price change by world region meant sales prices have failed to stay in 2013 to 79% in 2014. 12 months to June 2014 ahead of input costs making it a less The global picture hides some notable profitable venture. standout performances, particularly In Chile, the economy is slowing but amongst wine-making regions in ‘new capital is still flowing into agricultural and world’ locations such as the US, New lifestyle investments. We expect demand Zealand and Argentina. The average price NEW WORLD to strengthen in 2015 with more buyers of a lifestyle vineyard in the new world rose interested in fractional ownership of by 6.2% year-on-year compared to only managed vineyards. 2.3% in the established markets of the old 6.2% world (figure 1). In Italy, there is a clear demarcation Sonoma County in the US, often between the best and the rest. Although overshadowed by neighbouring Napa Valley, vineyard prices in Piedmont have slipped, OLD WORLD recorded the strongest appreciation with the area of Barolo (within Piedmont) is vineyard values rising by 17.9% in the 12 experiencing real growth. Demand is months to June. However, it is worth noting 2.3% focussed on those areas where there is a that prices in Sonoma County’s Russian quality product with a strong reputation. River Valley remain 50%-65% below those Other areas in Italy which outperform in Napa Valley’s key markets of Rutherford their wider markets include Brunello and Howell Mountain. Source: Knight Frank Residential Research and Prosecco. 4
GLOBAL TRENDS The index results give us an insight into the latest price performance of lifestyle vineyards but how is wine production and consumption faring at a global level?
The Organisation of Vine and Wine estimates that the world’s population FIGURE 2 consumed around 239 millions hectolitres Supply and demand (million hectolitres) of wine in 2013 but produced over 279 GLOBAL PRODUCTION GLOBAL CONSUMPTION 300 million hectolitres (figure 2). The margin narrowed in 2012 when the low harvest 290 in the northern hemisphere (particularly in 280 Italy and Spain) led to a rise in prices of 270 €2.62 per litre. 260 250 240 Demand 230 Global consumption has remained largely 220 stable since 2009 although there are 210 fluctuations at a country and regional 200 level. China and Europe are consuming 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 less wine (down by 3.8% and 2.4% Source: OIV respectively between 2012 and 2013) but this is being offset by countries such financial markets, but also their growing as Argentina, the US and Brazil where propensity to own a mixed property Supply consumption is on the rise. portfolio worldwide. Since 2000 the total surface area of the world covered in vines has shrunk 4%. So, demand looks relatively steady Luxury homes in global cities are still top The ‘new world’ markets, where land is providing vineyard owners with a of their list, but vineyards, ski homes and more easily acquired and newly planted, market for their end product but what private islands are increasingly on their is helping to offset the decline in countries about measuring the demand for the radar too as they see the advantages such as France, Italy, Spain and Portugal vineyards themselves? of buying a lifestyle acquisition which is where the surface area has dropped 14% Wealth forecasts estimate there will capable of providing an investment return overall over the same period. be 47,400 more ultra high net worth as well. This need to improve yields, along with individuals (UHNWIs) in the world by Knight Frank’s Attitudes Survey, which more environmentally conscious 2023 (individuals with assets of more analyses the views of wealth advisors consumers, is leading some vineyard than US$30m) with Asia and Latin representing 30,000 UHNWIs, found that owners to explore more sustainable America seeing a high proportion of this Latin Americans and Russians were the practises. According to our Vineyard emerging wealth. most interested in owning a vineyard Survey, over 80% of respondents said The global financial crisis underlined not (figure 3). Interestingly, analysis on a they were seeing interest strengthen in only the wealthy’s affinity with property country by country basis revealed 45% those vineyards that have adopted organic, and land, as a means of sheltering of Chinese UHNWIs were interested in biodynamic or sustainable methods, with their capital from the volatility of the vineyard ownership. France and Italy leading the way.
FIGURE 3 What percentage of your clients are interested in owning a vineyard? (%)
30% 30% 27% 23% 8% 17% 15% 13%
LATIN AMERICA RUSSIA/CIS NORTH AMERICA ASIA AUSTRALASIA EUROPE MIDDLE EAST AFRICA
Source: Attitudes Survey, Knight Frank Wealth Report 2014 GLOBAL VINEYARD INDEX 5 RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
FIGURE 5 WHO’S BUYING? Foreign nationalities purchasing vineyards by region All eyes seem to be on Asia but the buyers from the US, 2014 Switzerland and Brazil are increasingly active1. USA and looking 2. France further afieldColchagua too. 3. Spain Colchagua Valley Barossa Valley Valley Chile Australia The flow of vineyardChile buyers is an commercialColchagua owners Valleyand off-market Chile increasingly global affair but the domestic sales while a slump in prices (until recently) has deterred some buyers US China influence of overseas1. USA buyers varies 1. USA 1. 1. significantly from2. region France to region, and in Barossa Valley,2. aFrance trend we expect to 2. France 2. New Zealand Spain even from village3. to village in France change as Asian3. interest Spain strengthens. 3. Spain 3. Hong Kong and Italy’s case. The presenceColchagua of Asian Valley buyers Chile is no longer Tuscany currently attracts the largest confined to just Bordeaux, our survey proportion of international buyers showed that they are increasingly active 1. USA Bordeaux Marlborough (60%) with some areas such as Chianti in the US, New Zealand2. France and Australia France New Zealand and Montalcino seeing an even higher (figure 5). 3. Spain percentage (up to 80%) due to the Only two or three years ago any reference reputation of the local wine (figure 4). Colchagua Valley Chile 1. China 1. US to Asian buyers was synonymous 2. UK 2. China Mendoza in Argentina, which is home with the Chinese but now it refers to a 3. US 3. Australia to a large number of US, Canadian and much broader mix of nationalities from also European vineyard owners, is in Vietnamese to South Korean as well as the second place with around 50% of buyers ubiquitous Hong Kong wine enthusiasts. originating from outside of Argentina. Stellenbosch Somontano The Americans are also broadening South Africa Spain Barossa Valley (Australia) and Bordeaux their reach, although still active in Latin are at the other end of the spectrum America, they are looking further afield, with foreign purchasers accounting for to Italy and also to New Zealand. 1. UK 1. France only 10% of buyers. The reasons differ Brazilians are no longer focussed 2. Germany 2. UK for this low percentage. Bordeaux’s solely on Chile, Argentina and the Napa 3. Switzerland 3. Germany low proportion of foreign buyers is Valley but are interested in Tuscany, attributable to the dominance of in particular Montalcino.
Provence Mendoza FIGURE 4 France Argentina Buyers of lifestyle vineyards: domestic v foreign (%) 2014
1. UK 1. US 2. Russia 2. Canada 3. Switzerland 3. Brazil
Tuscany Napa Valley Italy USA
1. UK 1. China 2. Russia 2. South Korea 90% 90% 85% 80% 80% 70% 70% 70% 50% 40% 3. Brazil 3. Vietnam Y AI N AL AN O USA LLE Y LLEY LLE Y IT SP CHIL E VA FRANCE FRANCE TUSCAN Y MENDOZ A Source: See back page PROVENCE BORDEAU X AUSTRALIA ARGENTINA SOMONT NA PA NEW ZEALAND SOUTH AFRICA STELLENBOSC H MARLBOROUGH DOMESTIC BUYERS FOREIGN BUYERS BAROSSA VA COLCHAGUA VA
Source: See back page 6
FIGURE 6 Vineyard area by country MARKET FOCUS: Thousands of hectares FRANCE AND ITALY 950 Europe’s wine-making powerhouses, France and Italy, 900 are together responsible for 32% of the world’s wine 850 production but what challenges and opportunities do 800 vineyard owners in these countries face?
750 Both France and Italy have seen the Italian families for many years and are surface area of their vineyards decrease sold privately without ever coming to FRANCE 700 by 12% and 15% respectively since 2000 ITALY the open market. (figure 6). The Languedoc alone has lost Commercial ventures also dominate in 650 170,000 hectares of vines, removed as several key markets. Under French law
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 part of the EU’s Common Agricultural insurance companies must invest part of Source: OIV Policy. With the volume of vineyards their profits back into French real estate shrinking, unpredictable weather patterns which explains the prominence of AXA, (2012 and 2013 saw Bordeaux’s vines Allianz and others on many title deeds. FIGURE 7 decimated), increased competition from Typical price of a ‘lifestyle’ vineyard ‘new world’ markets and accelerating ( per hectare) Q2 2014 € storage and marketing costs, there are France challenges for even the most optimistic Côtes du Rhone of buyers. With prime estates in Bordeaux and AOP Bordeaux Burgundy hard to come by, top quality Burgundy* vineyards in Provence, Languedoc, and Provence PricingBurgandy and location The Rhone Valley are becoming more and Rhône Valley more sought after. Maremma In France considerable weight is given to In Provence, there is a great disparity Chianti the AOPBrunello (Appellation d’Origine Protégée) of the area or in Italy’s case the DOC between prices inland and prices on the Piedmont* (DenominazioneChianti di Origine Controllata). coast where vines can reach as much as €75,000 per hectare. Saint Emillion** VineyardPiedmont prices vary considerably with Brunello AOP Paulliac in Bordeaux and Brunello According to Adam Dakin, owner of Wine di Montalcino Piedmont DOCG di Montalcino leading their respective Objectives: “Prices in the vineyards of 0 200k 400k 600k 800k 0 500k 1.0m 1.5m 2.0m 2.5m national markets (figure 7). In both the Northern Rhône in appellations such Rhône Valley Source: Knight Frank Residential Research, Safer regions, buying opportunities can be as Cornas, Condrieu, Saint Joseph and * The price2500000 of vineyards in the Barolo DOCG can reach close to €1m per hectare ** Bordeaux’s AOP Paulliac is priced at c.€2m per hectare and Burgundy’s AOP limited as lifestyle vineyards have Crozes-Hermitage are moving up. In the Côtes du Rhone Cotes des Nuits and Grand Cru is priced at around €500,000 and €5m per hectare respectively but few if any lifestyle buyers are able to access these markets often been in the hands of French or Southern Rhône, Châteauneuf du Pape and Gigondas are particularly sought after AOP Burgundy* 2000000 from both locals and néo-vignerons. The Provence Cru of Rasteau is also in high demand FIGURE1500000 8 Maremma Goodbye Bordeaux, Hello Chile? Chinese wine imports, 2013 but the land is fairly well locked in by the cooperative4,354 and a few producers. Cairanne 1000000 Chianti is shortly to become a Cru vineyard, with CNY (million) Piedmont % change 2012/3 other Côtes du Rhône Villages, such as 500000 Séguret, demanding Cru status.” Brunello di Montalcino In the Lubéron, vineyards are still very Saint Emillion* 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800accessible at around €15,000 per hectare, 0 200k 400k 600k 800k 1,027 487 but housing is particularly expensive. 548 Buying a property here is for the wealthy +10.1% only. Costières de Nimes has been the % +8.8 1,453 ugly duckling of the Rhône for a long +6.6% 659 4,354 CHILE USA ITALY time, but two large “négotiants” have just bought here. +1.4% -6.9% -12.3% AUSTRALIA SPAIN In the Languedoc the main buyers in recent years have been the large producers and wholesalers, looking to FRANCE Source: OIV guarantee supply for the developing Asian
CNY (million) % change 2012/3
1,027 487 548 +10.1% +8.8% 1,453 4,354 +6.6% 659 CHILE USA ITALY +1.4% -6.9% -12.3% AUSTRALIA SPAIN
FRANCE
CNY (million) % change 2012/3
1,027 487 548 +10.1% +8.8% 1,453 4,354 +6.6% 659 CHILE USA ITALY +1.4% -6.9% -12.3% AUSTRALIA SPAIN
FRANCE GLOBAL VINEYARD INDEX 7 RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
markets. The market appears to be waking with reports of sales close to €1m per Wine investment funds report Asian up again with interest strengthening hectare being achieved. interest is shifting from French vintages amongst both French and foreign clients. According to Bill Thomson, Chairman of (Bordeaux, Burgundy) to Italian wines The Pic Saint Loup area still commands Knight Frank’s Italian Network, the difficulty (the Super Tuscans etc). There is some the highest prices at around €40,000 per for buyers is pinpointing the top locations. evidence of this interest filtering down hectare, but the Terrasses du Larzac are Bill explains: “Wine, unlike almost any into vineyard sales but it is still at an extremely fashionable with the arrival of other agricultural product is very location embryonic stage. a lot of wealthy Montpellier residents and sensitive and therefore within each area As with Bordeaux commercial wine foreign investors. there are hundreds of micro areas that are producers dominate in Tuscany with better or worse. Real local knowledge and Antinori, Banfi and Frescobaldi leading research is the only answer.” Italy the pack. Beyond these large estates, “The complexity of wine is that heavy vineyards are often very small and In Italy’s case, Tuscany’s ‘Golden Triangle’ investment in areas can lead to micro managed. which stretches from Pisa and across to oversupply with all the players reacting Florence and Siena remains the focal point in the same direction,” adds Bill. Asked whether buyers are willing to for vineyard enquiries. This area, renowned look outside the prime locations to get a The surge in popularity of Prosecco is for its Chianti Classico, continues to draw better deal Bill explains: “Buyers, be they also being reflected in vineyard sales buyers from around the world with estates domestic or foreign, are often willing to with activity to the north of Treviso – priced between 2- 8m generating the € € Prosecco’s traditional home – increasing. look beyond the key areas if their focus strongest level of interest. According to research by Nielsen the is primarily on the property and the Although Tuscany remains a firm favourite value of Prosecco sales increased vines are a lesser priority. However, if with foreign buyers, Barolo wine, made 54% in the year to June 2014 reaching profitability is key we will always advise from the Nebbiolo grape in Piedmont, is £229m, outpacing Cava and rivalling that them to buy in the areas where the wine increasingly on the radar of purchasers of Champagne. will be easier to sell.”
WINE V VINE Knight Frank’s Luxury Investment Index, Interestingly, a lifestyle vineyard also The relationship between fine wine which tracks the performance of a outperformed wine as an investment as an asset class and the price of number of investments of passion from over the same period. Our newly-created a vineyard is negligible but there watches to cars, rose by 6% overall in the Knight Frank Fine Wine Icons Index (FWII) does seem to be some correlation year to June. increased by 3% in the year to June. between bulk wine and vineyard The annual return of a lifestyle vineyard The FWII, created by our partners Wine prices. If bulk wine prices rise, (4.5%) compares favourably with antique Owners, reflects some rarer, more iconic demand from both prospective and furniture, ceramics, stamps and watches vintages and is less reliant on French current vineyard owners intensifies but was outpaced by classic cars based on wines than the Live-ex 100, particularly reducing the availability of land and the last 12 months performance (figure 9). when it comes to traditional Bordeaux. inflating prices.
FIGURE 9 Investments of passion: how does a vineyard compare? Annual % change to Q2 2014
JEWELLERY WINE WATCHES STAMPS LIFESTYLE ART COINS CLASSIC CHINESE 0% 3% 3% 3% VINEYARD 5% 10% CARS CERAMICS 4.5% 25% ANTIQUE -2% FURNITURE* -8%
*Furniture data to Q1 2014 Source: Knight Frank Residential Research using data from Art Market Research, Wine Owners, Historic Automobile Group International (HAGI), Stanley Gibbons GLOBAL BRIEFING For the latest news, views and analysis on the world of prime property, visit KnightFrankblog.com/global-briefing
RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH Liam Bailey Global Head of Research +44 20 7861 5133 [email protected]
Kate Everett-Allen International Residential Research +44 20 7861 1513 [email protected]
VINEYARD SALES
FRANCE Mark Harvey +44 207 861 5034 [email protected]
ITALY Bill Thomson +39 0577 738 908 [email protected]
PRESS OFFICE Astrid Etchells +44 20 7861 1182 [email protected]
Knight Frank Residential Research provides strategic advice, consultancy services and forecasting to a wide range of clients worldwide including developers, investors, funding organisations, corporate institutions and the Contacts and Acknowledgments public sector. All our clients recognise the need Alexander Hall of Vineyard Intelligence www.vineyardintelligence.com; Adam Dakin of Wine Objectives for expert independent advice customised to www.wineobjectives.com; Pattrick Kinnersley of www.mendozacontacto.com.ar; Scott Bergman their specific needs. of Bergman Euro-National www.bergmanvineyards.com; Matt Ridgway of Chile Investments www. chileinvestments.com; Nadia Binesh of BBI Argentina www.bbiargentina.com; John Hoare of Bayleys www.bayleys.co.nz; The International Organisation of Vine; Wine www.oiv.int and Simon Larkin of Atlas Fine Wines www.atlasfinewines.com
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