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Morning Insight 16 Apr 2014.Pmd APRIL 16, 2014 Economy News Equity Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation increased to 5.7% in March % Chg from 4.68% a month ago, snapping a three-month easing trend with 15 Apr 14 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths prices of fruit and vegetable prices starting to increase. (BL) Indian Indices As per private weather forecaster SKYMET, India's 2014 southwest SENSEX Index 22,485 (0.6) 3.1 6.9 monsoon is expected to be below normal.(ET) NIFTY Index 6,733 (0.6) 3.5 7.9 BANKEX Index 14,386 (2.1) 4.6 15.0 The price of petrol was cut by 70 paise a litre, excluding local levies, the BSET Index 9,026 2.2 1.0 (5.2) second reduction in rates in the last 30 days as appreciation of the rupee BSETCG INDEX 12,187 (0.1) 5.0 28.3 against the US dollar made oil imports cheaper.(BL) BSEOIL INDEX 9,612 (0.4) 4.3 9.9 CNXMcap Index 8,779 (0.9) 9.0 12.5 Standard and Poor's rating agency has highlighted that the direction and BSESMCAP INDEX 7,502 (0.3) 13.2 14.0 pace of policy reforms in India and more importantly which political party takes control after elections plus how fragmented the government will World Indices Dow Jones 16,263 0.6 1.2 (0.9) be, will have a bearing on the sovereign rating.(BS) Nasdaq 4,034 0.3 (5.0) (4.4) In a move which could affect the Jet-Etihad deal or start-up carriers like FTSE 6,542 (0.6) 0.2 (4.0) Tata-SIA or AirAsia India, DGCA has made it clear that foreign airlines or NIKKEI 13,997 0.6 (0.1) (9.1) investors would not have the right to control the management of an HANGSENG 22,671 (1.6) 5.7 (1.0) Indian carrier. (BS) Value traded (Rs cr) 15 Apr 14 % Chg - Day Corporate News Cash BSE 2,774 (0.3) The Oil Ministry is moving the Cabinet to allow Reliance Industries Cash NSE 14,304 (10.8) retain three gas discoveries worth $1.45 billion in the eastern offshore Derivatives 161,166 17.0 KG-D6 block even after expiry of timelines. (BS) Net inflows (Rs cr) SpiceJet Ltd and IndiGo merged fuel surcharge with the base fares to 11 Apr 14 % Chg MTD YTD simplify the prevailing fare structure and making air travel and pricing FII (415) (201) 4,056 22,230 more consumer friendly. (ET) Mutual Fund 80 (183) (2,479) (10,137) Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd, through its Swiss subsidiary, has FII open interest (Rs cr) received $5 million as milestone payment from Sanofi on a collaboration 11 Apr 14 % Chg regarding its VLA2 (alpha2-beta1) integrin monoclonal antibody. (BS) FII Index Futures 11,943 (2.1) Tata Steel said both its domestic annual production and sales hit record FII Index Options 51,508 (1.5) levels in 2013-14 at 9.15 million tonnes and 8.52 million tonnes, FII Stock Futures 38,414 (1.3) respectively. (BS) FII Stock Options 2,327 2.0 Engineering major Punj Llyod said it has won Rs 32.54 Bn contract for Advances / Declines (BSE) constructing infrastructure facilities in in a Libyan city. The project covers 15 Apr 14 A B T Total % total about 2,400 hectares, almost the entire area of Zliten city and is scheduled to be completed in four years. (BS) Advances 66 820 415 1,301 45 Declines 145 982 322 1,449 50 Ashok Leyland launched Partner, a light commercial vehicle (LCV), priced Unchanged 1 79 48 128 4 in the range of Rs 8.73-9.29 lakh (ex-showroom Delhi). (BS) Commodity % Chg Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) said it had commissioned a new polyester 15 Apr 14 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths filament yarn facility at Silvassa in Dadra and Nagar Haveli. (BS) Crude (NYMEX) (US$/BBL) 103.8 0.1 5.0 10.5 Asian Paints (International) Ltd (APIL), a wholly owned subsidiary of Gold (US$/OZ) 1,304.0 (1.7) (5.7) 4.7 India's largest paints company Asian Paints Ltd would be buying 51 Silver (US$/OZ) 19.6 (2.2) (8.8) (3.0) percent equity stake in Ethiopia-based Kadisco Chemical Industry Plc. (BS) Debt / forex market Jubilant Food Works Ltd has passed a special resolution agreeing for 15 Apr 14 1 Day 1 Mth 3 Mths enhancing the limit from 49% to 55% for the purchase of its equity shares and convertible debentures by FIIs. (ET) 10 yr G-Sec yield % 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.6 Re/US$ 60.2 60.2 61.2 61.5 The Bombay high court has adjourned the hearing in a dispute over the right to nominate directors on the board of Yes Bank Ltd to 29 April Sensex after a request from both sides.(mint) 22,800 Hitachi has emerged as the front-runner to buy the promoter’s stake in 21,475 Crompton Greaves. Both Hitachi and Thapars would enter into formal 20,150 agreement soon. (ET) 18,825 17,500 Source: ET = Economic Times, BS = Business Standard, FE = Financial Express, Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 BL = Business Line, ToI: Times of India, BSE = Bombay Stock Exchange MORNING INSIGHT April 16, 2014 RESULT UPDATE INFOSYS TECHNOLOGIES LTD Dipen Shah [email protected] RICE S ECOMMENDATION +91 22 6621 6301 P : R .3268 R : BUY TARGET PRICE: RS.3714 FY16E P/E: 14.1X 4QFY14 results came in line with expectations and so did the guidance for FY15. One-off client-specific issues are largely impacting the performance. We will wait for peer comments on some industry concerns raised by Infosys. Summary table 1QFY15 is expected to be soft; we expect performance to improve in 2QFY15. The company's strategy of focusing on growth should yield re- (Rs mn) FY14 FY15E FY16E sults. The company has won new orders worth $700mn during the quar- Sales 501,330 538,358 605,562 ter. Growth (%) 24.2 7.4 12.5 EBITDA 122,600 131,943 146,945 The FY15 revenue growth guidance of 7% - 9% (v/s 11.5% achieved in EBITDA margin (%) 24.5 24.5 24.3 FY14) indicates CQGR of >3% for the last 3 quarters of FY15, assuming a PBT 149,320 160,693 178,445 weak 1Q. We factor in 9% USD revenue growth in FY15 and 12% in FY16. Net profit 108,700 118,109 132,049 EPS (Rs) 190.3 206.7 231.1 Our EPS for FY15 and FY16 stand at Rs.207 (Rs.212 earlier) and Rs.231, Growth (%) 15.4 8.7 11.8 based on Rs.60 / USD. CEPS 225.4 244.4 273.5 BV (Rs / Share) 831.9 953.5 1,089.4 We expect the stock to remain ranged in near term, in absence of any in- Dividend / Share (Rs) 63.0 82.7 92.5 cremental negative surprises on FY15 guidance. However, we expect it to ROE (%) 25.4 23.2 22.6 ROCE (%) 34.9 31.5 30.6 move up once there are indications of growth rate improving. Net cash (debt) 259,500 323,671 374,997 We have been positive on the long-term demand prospects for quite NW capital (Days) 59.5 63.0 63.5 P/E (x) 17.2 15.8 14.1 some time. With the developed economies stabilizing, we do expect the P/BV (x) 3.9 3.4 3.0 demand scenario to improve over the next few quarters. EV/Sales (x) 3.1 2.8 2.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 12.9 11.5 9.9 We value the stock based on FY16 estimates. We accord valuations which are at the lower end of the valuation band prevalent in FY10. Growth Source: Company, Kotak Securities - Private rate for Infosys had dropped in FY10 before recovering in FY11. Client Research Our TP stands at Rs.3714 based on 16x FY16 estimates. Recommend BUY Dipen Shah holding 50 shares (ACCUMULATE). 4QFY14 results - in line with estimates (Rs.mn) 3QFY14 4QFY14 % Chg 4QFY13 % Chg Turnover 130,260 128,750 -1.2 104,540 23.2 Expenditure 97,670 95,940 79,920 EBIT 32,590 32,810 0.7 24,620 33.3 Interest 0 0 0 Other Income 7,340 8,510 6,740 PBT 39,930 41,320 3.5 31,360 31.8 Tax 11,150 11,400 7,420 Minority interest 0 0 0 PAT 28,780 29,920 4.0 23,940 25.0 E. O items 0 0 0 PAT after EO items 28,780 29,920 23,940 EPS (Rs) 50.4 52.4 41.9 EBIT (%) 25.0 25.5 23.6 Net Profit (%) 22.1 23.2 22.9 Source : Company Kotak Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities and Private Client Group. This report has been pre- pared by the Private Client Group. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, target price of the Institutional Equities Research Group of Kotak Securities Limited. Kotak Securities - Private Client Research Please see the disclaimer on the last page For Private Circulation 2 MORNING INSIGHT April 16, 2014 Volumes grew by 0.4% in IT services; realisations down by 0.8% QoQ Revenues were down by about 0.4% QoQ, in CC terms.
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