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The Bitterroot Valley of Western Montana AREA ECONOMIC PROFILE prepared by Dr. Larry Swanson, Associate Directori O’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West The University of Montana May, 2001 This profile provides a description and assessment of the area economy of the Bitterroot Valley of southwestern Montana. Changing conditions and trends in the area economy over the course of the last twenty to twenty-five years are examined, including trends in population and employment growth and associated income changes and economic restruc- turing. Changing conditions in Ravalli County and the Bitterroot Valley are compared to those for the larger Rocky Mountain West region and nation as a whole. Various measures of the Bitterroot area economy also are systematically compared to similar measures for areas throughout the western United States having similar characteristics to the Bitterroot Valley. Two types of “peer areas” are selected for this purpose: 1) non-metro areas in the West nearby small and intermediate regional centers of 30,000 to 100,000 people, and, 2) non-metro areas nearby small and intermediate regional centers that are also nearby large concentrations of Forest Service lands. Major Findings and Observations Southwestern Montana’s Bitterroot Valley is the central watershed of the Bitterroot River, which flows north through the valley toward its confluence with the Clark Fork River near Missoula. This 1. Population Growth - During the 1990s, Ravalli County was the fastest growing county watershed is largely defined by the boundaries of Ravalli County. County boundaries also define in Montana and became one of the fastest growing counties in the entire United States, the outer boundaries of the Bitterroot National Forest. Ravalli County’s largest city is Hamilton, a as measured by percentage change in population. For the period from 1990 to 1999, the city of nearly 4,000 people. Ravalli County had a population of 25,000 in 1990 (mapped above), up County’s population increased from 25,010 to 35,811; an increase of 43 percent. The from 22,500 in 1980. During the 1990s, the county’s population expanded to over 36,000. With fastest growth occurred between 1991 and 1996, with growth each year ranging from 4 this growth and accompanying change, the area is experiencing significant economic restructuring. to 6 percent. Annual growth rates as high as these have not occurred in the Bitterroot Valley since 1978 and 1979. The trend in growth can be seen in Figures 1 and 2 below. 2. Population Racial Profile - The area’s population is racially non-diverse, as is the While growth was relatively high during the 1970s, it leveled off during the 1980s. population of the larger region. Of the county’s 36,070 residents, nearly 97 percent Growth returned and increased each year during the early and mid-1990s. In the last are white. American Indians are the largest racial minority, with a total population of three to four years, growth has slowed to about 2 percent a year. Recently released only 319, less than one percent of the total. The population of Hispanic or Latino counts from the 2000 Census place Ravalli County’s population at 36,070. origin is less than 2 percent of the population. Figures 1 and 2 3. Population Change through Net Migration - Population change results from both “natural change,” or the net result of births and deaths, and from “net migration,” or Ravalli Co. Population Change: 1970 - 2000 the net result of persons moving from the area and to the area. Net migration does not include those who have moved to the valley as part-time residents who have not e 40,000 made it their permanent residence. Much of the valley’s population growth has 35,000 resulted from sharply higher net migration in the last decade. During the entire 30,000 decade of the 1980s, net migration totaled only 1,530, which increased the area’s 25,000 Total Pop. population by 6.8 percent. However, between 1990 and 1999, an estimated 10,380 20,000 Annual Change more people moved to the valley than the number moving away, raising the valley’s 15,000 population by 41.5 percent, and accounting for 96 percent of the valley population 10,000 growth during the 1990s. Net migration was at its highest in the early and mid-90s 5,000 when it totaled 1,300 to 1,800 per year. More recently, net migration has fallen to 0 Pop.: Total and Annual Chang 600 to 700 annually. Population growth in the valley for the next decade or two 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 will be almost entirely dictated by the rate of migration. YEARS 4. Population Change through Births and Deaths - Between 1980 and 1990, there were 3,222 births and 2,235 deaths in Ravalli County, resulting in a net gain of 987 Ravalli Co.: Annual Pop. Change, 1971-99 persons. This natural change raised the population of the county by 4.4 percent e 2,000 during the 1980s, slightly less than the 6.8 percent gain resulting from net migration. During the 1990s, births totaled 3,154 and deaths totaled 2,647, resulting in a net 1,500 gain of 507 persons, pushing up the population of the area by 2 percent. Area 1,000 population growth through natural change is declining because of significant declines 500 in the area birth rate. Annual Pop. Chang 0 5. Influence of a Nearby Regional Population Center - A key factor in the character 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 and change of the Bitterroot Area economy is the county’s proximity to a mid-size YEARS regional center - the City of Missoula. During the 1980s, the county of Missoula grew from 76,016 to 78,687, an increase of only 3.5 percent. However, between 2 1990 and 1999, Missoula County grew by 13.5 percent. Missoula County’s net 7. Population Trends in Peer Areas of the West - Conditions and trends in the migration went from a minus 4,670 persons in the 1980s to a positive 6,234 between Bitterroot Valley are compared and contrasted with other areas in the western United 1990 and 1999. This net migration accounted for nearly 60 percent of Missoula States having similar characteristics. Two sets of counties representing “peer areas” County’s total population increase during the 1990s. More recent estimates from the of the Bitterroot Valley are used for this purpose including: 2000 Census place Missoula County’s population at nearly 96,000, which is considerably higher than the 1999 estimate of 89,344. This suggests that year-by- ! Non-metro Areas Nearby Large and Small Regional Centers - Changing year population estimates for the county during the 1990s significantly under- migration trends for Ravalli County can be seen as part of a larger shift in the estimated the county’s true growth. The incorporated area of the City of Missoula pattern of migration across the western United States. Throughout the West, now totals over 58,000. Ravalli County’s largest city, Hamilton, is less than 50 miles largely rural or non-metro areas located nearby regional centers with county- from Missoula and the northern portion of the Bitterroot Valley has largely become a wide populations between 30,000 and 100,000, such as is the case with bedroom community of Missoula. It is estimated that roughly 15 to 20 percent of Ravalli County, have seen significant alterations in population and those residing in Ravalli County who are employed work in Missoula County. The employment trends. While growing by only 2.6 percent during the 1980s, close proximity of Missoula influences many aspects of the Bitterroot Valley these areas grew by 7.8 percent between 1990 and 1999. And while these economy including population growth and levels and types of employment. areas had net out-migration of nearly 58,000 people during the 1980s, they experienced net in-migration of over 84,000 people during the 1990s. This 6. Influence of the Large Presence of Public Forest Lands - As clearly shown in the net migration accounted for about 60 percent of their population gain. So, in map on page 1, the communities of the Bitterroot Valley are located on a “peninsula” part, recent migration shifts in the Bitterroot Valley can be interpreted as part of largely private lands occupying the valley floor and mountain foothills surrounded of this larger pattern of change occurring in areas nearby mid-size regional by a “sea” of public forest lands. Within the boundaries of Ravalli County itself, population centers. there are 1,850 square miles of forest lands administered by the U.S. Forest Service, representing about 77 percent of the entire county’s land base. And, beyond the ! Non-metro Areas Nearby Forest Lands in the West - Population trends in perimeters of the county, these forest lands stretch for many miles. The presence of Ravalli County also should be viewed within the context of trends for non- these public forest lands has heavily influenced the settlement and economic metro areas throughout the West nearby large concentrations of forest lands. development of the Bitterroot Valley and wood products manufacturing has been a There are 409 counties in the West whose geographic center is within 30 key component of the area’s economic base. Historically, the economic role of these miles of large concentrations of forest lands administered by the U.S. Forest forest lands has been primarily one of a supplier of raw material for lumber Service, similar to those in and nearby the Bitterroot Valley, and 109 of these processing in the area.

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