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Dividend Yield Vs. Dividend Growth RESEARCH by OSAM: SEPTEMBER 2012

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Dividend Yield Vs. Dividend Growth RESEARCH by OSAM: SEPTEMBER 2012 enhanced-dividend.com OSAM Research: Dividend Yield vs. Dividend Growth RESEARCH BY OSAM: SEPTEMBER 2012 Investor demand for high-yielding companies has grown even stronger OSAM RESEARCHTEAM because of the perception that these companies are more defensive Jim O’Shaughnessy and recent news that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has Chris Meredith,CFA Scott Bartone, CFA extended its forecast of low rates until 2015. We believe buying a portfolio Travis Fairchild, CFA of high-quality, global, market-leading companies with superior valuations Patrick O’Shaughnessy, CFA Ehren Stanhope, CFA and high dividend yields provides investors with an excellent opportunity Manson Zhu, CFA to consistently beat the market,1 while providing high income relative to fixed income securities in the current environment. However, despite the CONTENTS abundance of literature showing dividend yield as a powerful driver of Dividend Yield & Dividend Growth Global Performance total return over time — accounting for approximately 40 percent of the Conclusion total return of the S&P 500 since 1926 — there are those who believe high dividend payments are a poor indicator of a company’s future growth prospects and prefer to select stocks using dividend growth instead. Figure 1: Dividend Yield and Dividend Growth vs. U.S. All Stocks Our research confirms that investors should focus on dividend yield rather (1930–2011) than dividend growth rates. Top Decile Dividend Yield 11.6% Dividend Yield & Dividend Growth Top Decile 8.1% Dividend Growth Dividend yield is calculated as the Using data from the Center for latest dividend payment (annualized) Research in Security Prices (CRSP) U.S. All Stocks 10.2% divided by price. We define dividend going back to 1930, we grouped the growth as the rate of change or slope universe into deciles by dividend yield Source: CRSP Database of dividends paid by a company over and dividend growth. In 80+ years — the most recent three-year period. from 1930 to the end of 2011 — the We not only look at returns when Our research shows that high top decile of stocks by dividend yield evaluating stock selection factors, but dividend yields are a strong indicator and dividend growth returned 11.6 per- are also concerned with how consist- of future outperformance. Paying a cent and 8.1 percent, respectively. ently a factor beats its benchmark. dividend forces management to invest During that same period, the top Since 1930, the top decile of dividend cash flow only in opportunities with decile by dividend yield handily beat yield outperformed U.S. All Stocks the most optimal risk/reward tradeoff. U.S. All Stocks by 1.4 percent in 71 percent of 924 rolling five-year An example of a stock with a high annualized, whereas the top decile of periods (658 won, 266 lost) versus a dividend yield is Eli Lilly (4.2 percent dividend growers underperformed win rate of 20 percent for the highest as of 9/20/12), which ranks in the annually by 2.1 percent (see Figure 1). dividend growers in all five- top decile of companies in the U.S. All Stocks Universe. 1 See “Enhanced Dividend® Commentary” http://www.osam.com/pdf/commentary_jun12.pdf O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, LLC Six Suburban Avenue ■ Stamford, CT 06901 ■ 203.975.3333 Tel ■ 203.975.3310 Fax ■ osam.com Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please see important information at the end of this presentation. I DIVIDEND YIELD VS. DIVIDEND GROWTH 2 year time frames. The rate of outper- growth rate in a high-yield universe. Figure 3: Dividend Yield and Dividend formance increased to 77 percent The highest-dividend-growth stocks Growth vs. Worldscope All Stocks in rolling 10-year periods for high- underperformed the lowest dividend (1990–2011) yielding names while the win rate for growers by 1.6 percent. Top Decile 14.8% the highest dividend growers fell to Dividend Yield Global Performance 14 percent. Finally, the Sharpe Ratio Top Decile 10.0% of the highest-dividend-paying stocks Clearly, dividend yield is superior to Dividend Growth was 0.33, vastly better than the 0.15 dividend growth rates for selecting Worldscope 6.9% oofferedffered by tthehe top ddividendividend ggrowers.rowers. stocks in the U.S. However, it is our All Stocks belief that investors must seek yield Source: Worldscope Database Table 1: Dividend Growth globally in order to gain a wider Performance in a opportunity set as U.S. companies High-Yield Universe to 1990. In the 22 years from 1990 to Dividend Yield have shifted to repurchasing shares (1930–2011) Top Tercile 2011, the top decile of stocks by as a way to return capital to their Top Tercile (1) 10.7% dividend yield returned 14.8 percent shareholders.2 Since the enactment of Dividend (see Figure 3) with a Sharpe Ratio of Tercile 2 13. 9% the Safe Harbor Rule in 1982 , which Growth 0.66. The top decile of dividend growth removed many restrictions for share Bottom Tercile (3) 12.3% stocks did not fare nearly as well, and buybacks, the percentage of com- Source: CRSP Database returned 10.0 percent with a 0.38 risk- panies in the U.S. paying a dividend adjusted return. During the same has fallen dramatically. Conversely, Another interesting point of analysis timeframe, both factors easily beat the percentage of companies paying is to observe how dividend growth the Worldscope All Stocks return of a dividend in Asia and Europe far performs among companies that pay 6.9 percent, but dividend yield is the exceeds that of the U .S . (see Fig. 2) — the highest yields. Again using the superior factor on an absolute and a trend that we expect to remain intact CRSP data, we separate the universe risk-adjusted basis. Finally, dividend for the near future. into terciles* based on dividend yield is far more consistent and beat yield and dividend growth. Table1 To perform analysis in global markets, the benchmark in 100 percent of 203 illustrates that investors are not we utilize the Worldscope database rolling five-year periods, while dividend compensated by purchasing stocks to build decile portfolios for dividend growth had a win rate of 80 percent with the highest dividend yield and dividend growth dating back in five-year timeframes. Figure 2: Percentage of Companies Paying Dividends by Region Worldscope Stocks (5/1/1987 to 6/30/2012) 100% Japan 90% 80% Europe 70% Asia Pacific ex Japan 60% 50% United States 40% 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 * Terciles eliminate clustering that occurs in deciles and quintiles. 2 See “Why U.S. Investors Should Look Beyond Dividend Yield” http://www.osam.com/pdf/commentary_mar12.pdf Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please see important information at the end of this presentation. I OSAM RESEARCH: DIVIDEND YIELD VS. DIVIDEND GROWTH 3 Conclusion Historical precedent clearly demon- The primary reason to avoid high The O’Shaughnessy Enhanced strates that investors are better dividend growers: investor pressure Dividend® strategy seeks large, stable, served by focusing on high dividend- for these companies to continue well-priced stocks with high dividend yielding companies rather than high growing dividends at a high rate is yield, which is one way for investors dividend growers. The reasons for unrealistic. This ultimately causes to own such well-known companies selecting stocks using dividend yield underperformance as dividend growth as Deutsche Telekom, Eli Lilly, are two-fold: rates revert. Additionally, rather than AstraZeneca, and Lockheed Martin. ■ Paying a dividend forces discipline fifocusing so lldlely on a domes tiitic universe Utiliz ing this s tra tegy can enable on the management of firms to invest when seeking income, we believe investors to benefit from a factor that only in the most profitable projects. investors should focus on a much has proven to perform consistently ■ With fixed income yields at historical larger universe of stocks that extends and with less risk, when backtested lows (10-Year Treasury yielding beyond the U.S. through a variety of market cycles. 1.74 percent), high-yielding stocks fill a glaring need for income in many investor portfolios. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please see important information below. General Legal Disclosure/Disclaimer and Backtested Results The material contained herein is intended as a general market commentary. Opinions expressed herein are solely those of O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, LLC and may differ from those of your broker or investment firm. Please remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there canbenoassurancethatthefuture performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this presentation, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), or be suitable for any portfolio. Gross of fee performance computations are reflected prior to OSAM’s investment advisory fee (as described in OSAM’s written disclosure statement), the application of which will have the effect of decreasing the composite performance results (for example: an advisory fee of 1% compounded over a 10-year period would reduce a 10% return to an 8.9% annual return). Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this presentation serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, individualized investment advice from OSAM. Historical performance results for investment indices and/or categories have been provided for general comparison purposes only, and generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges, the deduction of an investment management fee, nor the impact of taxes, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results.
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