Draft Climate Change Policy and Action Plan Hastings Borough Council

Draft Climate Change Policy and Action Plan Hastings Borough Council ‘Urgent action is need now to combat the worlds ‘greatest environmental challenge’ global warming.’ Tony Blair, September 2004 Introduction Global climate change is a naturally occurring process. However, humans impact on this process, through emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (from burning fossil fuels for energy) and methane gas is now evident and causing much more dramatic effects than would occur naturally. The Council recognises the significance of climate change and has made a commitment to reduce its own impact on this global problem. In 2003 the Council became the first local authority in East Sussex to become a signatory to the Nottingham Declaration on Climate Change and committed to develop a policy and action plan to address the causes and effects of climate change. What is Climate Change? Global warming or climate change is a natural process and is caused by the ‘greenhouse’ effect. Atmospheric greenhouse gases (principally carbon dioxide CO2) allow energy from the sun to reach the Earth’s surface and warm it up. In turn the earth gives off infrared ‘heat’ radiation. Most escapes to outer space, but some are trapped by the greenhouse gases and heat the earth. The natural balance of this process has been upset by human activity by increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which make the world warmer. (See appendix 1) Atmospheric CO2 levels have increased by around 30% since the start of the industrial revolution, in the late 18 th Century The main cause of this increase has been the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas, which all contain carbon) to generate electricity. A car driven 5 miles releases 1kg of CO2 into the atmosphere, and £1 spent on electricity releases 10kg of CO2. The lifetime of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere means that even if emissions were to be stopped tomorrow the impacts would continue to impact for 80-100 years. ‘Internationally our first priority is climate change, in the long term probably the most important issues we face as a global community’ Lord Whitty, August 2004. 1 Source: ‘ picture in - Global warming, local warning – Dr Caroline Lucas’ Recognition of the global, national and regional significance of climate change has risen dramatically over recent years and resulted in international cooperation to address the causes and impacts of climate change. Source: Hadley Centre, ‘Dangerous Climate Change Report December 2004. Research indicates that climate change is having complex impacts on the global environment with damaging local effects around the globe. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ‘mid rage scenarios’ projects an increase in global mean temperatures of between 1 °C and 3.5 °C, by the year 2100, the largest warming in the past 10,000 years. Average sea level is projected to rise by between 15 and 95sm by the year 2100. The greenhouse gases are Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide Ozone Water vapour 2 Halocarbons International Cooperation The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 and published its first assessment report in 1990 – this stated that global warming was real and urged something to be done about it. IPCC current role is to assess all information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for mitigation and adaptation. The findings of the IPCC panel spurred governments to create the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992. One of the first major responses to climate change took place at the Earth Summit In Rio in 1992 when 160 nations agreed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to 1990 base year levels by 2000. This agreement came under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This agreement was developed further and at the Earth Summit in Kyoto in 1997 individual national targets were set to reduce a group of six gases based on 1990 levels – the Kyoto Protocol . This legally binding agreement set mandatory targets to reduce green house emissions for the six principal greenhouse gases. Climate Change – facts: (IPPR findings) • Global emissions of CO2 have increased 12-fold over the course of the last century. As C02 stays and accumulates in the atmosphere for many decades, CO2 concentrations have risen by 30% over pre-industrial levels • The 1990s were the warmest decade since written records began. The planets snow cover has decreased by 10% and the extent of artic sea-ice has decreased by 15% in spring and summer since the 1950s. • Global climatic changes include a 10-15% increase in rainfall and a doubling of stormy weather in parts of the northern hemisphere since the 1950s. Global average sea levels have risen by up to 0.2m during the 20 th century. • 150,000 premature deaths are attributed to climate change through heat waves, floods, storms and droughts, the spread of water-borne diseases and those carried by insects. (WHO) • Economic losses from natural disasters (80% are weather related) have increased 9-fold since the 1960s to $480 billion in the 1990s, according to German re-insurer Munich Re. • The Association of British Insurers estimates that losses from natural disasters cost $60 billion in 2003 and could be as much as $150 billion by 2010 • Ecosystems are being damaged – warming oceans has killed large stretches of coral reefs. • Global average temperatures are predicted to rise by 6 °C by the end of the century if little is done to reduce emissions, and sea level rises are projected to rise by almost 1meter, flooding low lying islands, crop land and certain cities worldwide 3 National Commitments The UK government has established the UK Climate Change Programme (UKCIP) to meet the targets agreed under the Kyoto Protocol. The UK is legally bound to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 12.5% below 1990 levels by between 2008 and 2012. UKCIP also aims to help organisations assess how they might be affected by climate change. The Governments has set domestic goal to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20% by 2010. In the long-term the Royal Commission on Environment and Pollution has predicted that a target reduction on greenhouse gas emissions of 60% by 2050 and 80% by 2100 (from the level in 1990) are required to stabilise levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and ensure climate change does not accelerate dangerously. In February 2003 the Government published its Energy White Paper ‘Our Energy Future – creating a low carbon economy’. This defines a 2050 strategic vision to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by a challenging 60%. A national target of 10% of all UK electricity being supplied by renewable energy by 2010 has also been set, with the aspiration that this increases to 20% by 2020. Regional Context UKCIP commissioned the Hadley Centre and the Climate Research Unit at East Anglia University to produce a set of future national climate predictions. The study known as UKCIPo2 considered 4 different scenarios (low, medium- low, medium-high and high) corresponding to future greenhouse gas emissions. The results are presented in the form of UK maps showing future rainfall, temperature, wind speed and other variables for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Regional climate change partnerships have used this data to identify the likely impacts on their region. The following page shows the Climate Change Scenario’s for the South East Region. By taking all the scenarios together the main UKCIP02 predictions for the South East are that, by the 2080’s: • Winters will have 10-30% more rainfall • Intense rainfall days with 20mm of rain could double • Winters will be 1.5-3.5 °C warmer • Summers will be 2-6°C hotter • 30-60 more extremely warmer days per year • Summer rainfall will be 20-60% lower • Higher daily average wind speeds in the winter • It could be warm enough for 40-100 extra growing days of plant growth per year (currently about 250 days per year) 4 • Sea levels will rise by 19-79cm (mean sea level in the English Channel increase by 54cm by 2080)` • ‘Once in 50 years’ storm surges along the coastline will increase by 20- 140cm. Many of the predicted effects will be clear and tangible by the 2020’s - within our lifetime. The South East Climate Change partnership (SECCP) published ‘Rising to the Challenge’ a study of the possible impacts of climate change in the region in 1999. In 2003 the South East England Regional Assembly published the South East Energy Efficiency and Renewable Strategy called ‘Harnessing the Elements‘. The Strategy highlights the potential for renewable energy in the region with wind, biomass and solar technologies representing over 95% of the regions potential in the short to medium term. And locally The likely impacts of climate change in Hastings and St Leonards include • Rising sea levels – resulting in increased risk of tidal flooding and possible disruption to our transport corridors • Increase in drought conditions during summer months – putting pressure on our water supplies, local food supplies • Increase demand for water for existing users and proposed new developments (the south east has the highest demand for water per head than any other area in the UK) • Deteriorating air quality • Coastal flooding and erosion • Opportunities for increase in tourism – with longer season • Opportunities for renewable energy developments and installations • Increase in subsidence due to drier land and soil • Milder winters with larger rainfall 5 What do climate change scenarios show for the southeast? These maps from the UK Climate Impacts Programme show how the aspects of our climate could change by the 2080’s.

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