BP 492 Two Years of Ramaphosa- Where Do We Stand

Briefing Paper 492 December 2019 TWO YEARS OF RAMAPHOSA: WHERE DO WE STAND? 1. Introduction Two years ago, on 18 December 2017, Cyril leadership crises at SARS, the NPA, the Hawks, Ramaphosa was elected president of South Crime Intelligence and elsewhere in the Africa’s governing party, the African National machinery of state, but he did not rush into any of Congress. Two months later, he became President them. So, two years after Mr Ramaphosa’s ascent of the country following Jacob Zuma’s resignation. to power, and as we end the 25th year of Seven months ago, Mr Ramaphosa led the ANC to democracy, where does South Africa stand? Has a fairly comfortable election win, with 57.5% of the new broom done its work? the vote. This was down on the 62% that it won in 2014, but up from the low-point of 54% that it secured in the 2016 local government elections. 2. Governance Mr Ramaphosa and his supporters were quite There have been a number of clear improvements open that his campaign for leadership of the ANC in this area since Mr Ramaphosa took over. Among – and the national presidency that follows them are the following: automatically – was based on the urgent need to rescue the country from the ruinous nine-year 2.1. Cabinet reign of Mr Zuma, characterised as it was by a near-total breakdown in the values of accountable Almost all of the most under-performing, corrupt governance, by the phenomenon of ‘state capture’, and/or incompetent of Mr Zuma’s ministers have by wholesale corruption, and by the systematic been removed from office. The worst of them were weakening and co-option of purportedly dropped by Mr Ramaphosa as soon as he became independent institutions such as the police, the President, others were dismissed in a reshuffle in National Prosecuting Authority, the SA Revenue November 2018, and by the time the post-election Service, and others. cabinet was announced in May this year only one or two Zuma loyalists were left, all in fairly junior At various times after December 2017 Mr portfolios. At the same time, a core of untainted Ramaphosa indicated that he needed time to make ministers was given some of the most important interventions. For example, his first cabinet, posts – Tito Mboweni (Finance), Pravin Gordhan announced in February 2018, contained some (Public Enterprises), Aaron Motsoaledi (Home ministers who had been firm Zuma accomplices; Affairs), Ronald Lamola (Justice), Naledi Pandor Mr Ramaphosa said that this was a temporary (International Relations and Co-operation) and cabinet that would take the country to the May Jackson Mthembu (Planning, Monitoring and 2019 elections. He appointed various Evaluation). commissions of enquiry, and expanded the mandates of others, and promised to act on their What Mr Ramaphosa failed to do was to reduce the recommendations. He also committed himself to size of the executive significantly enough. The make much-needed appointments to the boards of number of full ministers went from 35 under Mr State Owned Enterprises (SOEs), and to resolving Zuma to 28, but there are still 34 deputies, only four less than before. This remains a bloated state capture offences, no major tax prosecutions cabinet, much larger – and more expensive – than by SARS, and certainly no light at the end of the the cabinets of some much bigger countries, and tunnel (or elsewhere, most days) for Eskom. The inappropriate for a country struggling with reason seems to be that, while the new bosses may unsustainable levels of state expenditure. be people of integrity and diligence, the institutions they head were so thoroughly infected 2.2. Commissions of Enquiry by the state capture virus that it is taking far longer than anticipated to weed out compromised The Zondo Commission of Enquiry into state officials and to find enough competent and capture was instituted by President Zuma (at the dependable ones to carry out investigations and recommendation of the Public Protector) but Mr prepare prosecutions. Ramaphosa significantly extended its terms of reference in order to give it real clout. He also As for calls for Mr Ramaphosa to ‘speed up the instituted three other judicial commissions of process’, this would simply undermine the very enquiry, into SARS, the situation at the NPA, and independence that he has sought to restore to the Public Investment Corporation respectively. these institutions. At a certain point, if Batoyi, The last-mentioned, as well as the Zondo Lebeya, Kieswetter and others prove incapable of Commission, have not yet completed their work, turning their institutions around, the President but the others have, and Mr Ramaphosa acted on would be justified in replacing them. But that point their recommendations very promptly, dismissing has not yet been reached. Tom Moyane as head of SARS, and Advocates Jiba and Mrwebi from their senior posts at the NPA. 2.4. Other appointments The Mpati Commission is due to report this month, and the Zondo Commission will probably sit until Unfortunately, it is not all positive news when it well into 2020. We may expect that Mr Ramaphosa comes to issues of governance. The ANC still will act expeditiously on their recommendations appears unable to give proper effect to its too, but in a sense that is only half of the point of repeated commitments to avoid deploying people these commissions. The other half is that there is who are subject to allegations of wrongdoing, or now abundant precedent for this kind of whose past failures and incompetence are independent, professional and credible method of notorious. In the last few weeks we have seen: investigating public sector governance failures. Each commission that successfully completes its the selection of Geoff Makhubo as the new enquiry, and has its recommendations acted upon, mayor of Johannesburg, despite paves the way for the next one, ultimately makes corruption allegations against him which the prosecution of offenders easier, and – are still being investigated by the party’s hopefully – acts as a deterrent against future own integrity commission; maladministration. the appointment of Bathabile Dlamini, who came within a hair’s breadth of 2.3. Senior appointments destroying our social security system two years ago, as the new head of the Social Most of the crucial new appointments made by Mr Housing Regulatory Authority; Ramaphosa were credible and well-received: the choice of Adv Kholeka Gcaleka as Shamila Batoyi as the head of the NPA; Edward Deputy Public Protector, despite concerns Kieswetter at SARS; Godfrey Lebeya at the Hawks, about her role as legal adviser to former for example. More recently, the politically risky finance minister Malusi Gigaba at the time step was taken of appointing a white male to the when he was found to have lied under post of CEO at the country’s biggest SOE, Eskom. In oath; direct contrast to the Zuma era, in none of these the recommendation of former Msunduzi cases, nor in a string of more junior ones, is there (Pietermaritzburg) mayor, Zanele any sign that political connectedness, patronage, Hlatshwayo to be the head of the Public malleability or a willingness to turn a blind eye to Service Commission, even though the ANC malfeasance is behind the appointments. itself removed her from the mayoralty after the collapse of the municipality; and It is frequently noted, of course, that despite these the appointment of Siphokazi Ndudane as apparently sound appointments, we still have not head of the Eastern Cape’s department of seen much action – no high-profile arrests for rural development and agrarian reform a BP 492 Two Years of Ramaphosa: Where do we stand? 2 few days after she was fired by the have a free-floating, easily-traded currency. In national department of fisheries for good times, this helps us, but when the allegedly stealing R7 million worth of international economic winds are foul, we can find abalone. ourselves in danger of being swamped. And nothing that our government says or does will President Ramaphosa may be doing his best to change Mr Trump’s mind or alter the course of install credible and dependable leaders in the Brexit. national executive, and in the senior echelons of the civil service and the independent institutions, 3.2. Drought and climate change but his efforts will bear little fruit as long as his party insists on rewarding failure and corruption Periodic failures of rain have been blamed for our with fresh appointments to lucrative positions. economic woes for decades, even centuries. Sometimes this may have been just a convenient excuse, but in recent years it has become a 3. The Economy frightening reality. The predictions by climate change experts that much of southern Africa will The damage to our democratic institutions and experience lower rainfall and higher processes of governance that has been caused by temperatures, are being borne out. Among the a decade of state capture and by 25 years of cadre worst affected areas are the regions where maize deployment, ANC hubris and entitlement, and by is grown, but almost all our agriculture has been the knowledge that, however poorly it performed, negatively impacted. Africa bears almost no it would win the next election, can theoretically be responsibility for causing this drastic climate undone by a return to constitutional values, change, yet it stands to be the worst affected proper procedures, and the appointment of continent. independent and capable officials. As argued above, there is much evidence that this is what Mr 3.3. Decline in mining Ramaphosa is doing; the ship of governance can indeed be turned away from the rocks. South Africa’s economic growth in the 20th century was based very largely on mining, gold, platinum The economy presents a much more difficult and diamonds in particular.

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