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Population Estimate and Rate of Increase of Southern Right Whales Eubalaena Australis in Southeastern Australia

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Population Estimate and Rate of Increase of Southern Right Whales Eubalaena Australis in Southeastern Australia Vol. 41: 373–383, 2020 ENDANGERED SPECIES RESEARCH Published April 30 https://doi.org/10.3354/esr01031 Endang Species Res OPENPEN ACCESSCCESS Population estimate and rate of increase of southern right whales Eubalaena australis in southeastern Australia K. Stamation1,*, M. Watson2, P. Moloney1, C. Charlton3, J. Bannister4,† 1Arthur Rylah Institute for Environmental Research, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Heidelberg, Victoria 3018, Australia 2Barwon South West Regional Services, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, Warrnambool, Victoria 3280, Australia 3Centre for Marine Science and Technology, Curtin University, Bentley, Western Australia 6102, Australia 4Western Australian Museum, Welshpool, Western Australia 6106, Australia ABSTRACT: In Australian waters, southern right whales Eubalaena australis form 2 genetically distinct populations that have shown contrasting patterns of recovery since whaling ceased: a western population in South Australia and Western Australia and an eastern population in south- eastern Australia (Tasmania, Victoria and New South Wales). Here, we provide an abundance estimate derived from a breeding female superpopulation mark-recapture model for the south- eastern southern right whale population. The population comprises 268 individuals (68 breeding females) and has increased at a rate of 4.7% per annum between 1996 and 2017. There has been no significant change in the annual abundance of mother-calf pairs sighted at the only calving ground (Logans Beach in Victoria) over the last 3 decades. The total number of southern right whales (i.e. all adults and calves) using the southeastern Australian coastline has increased by 7% since 1985. Unlike the population estimate (which was restricted to breeding females sighted prior to the post-breeding southward migration), this estimate is likely to include transiting whales from the southwestern population. The theoretical population model predicts 19 breeding females at Logans Beach in 2018 and 28 in 2028; the actual number of breeding females, as of 2018, is 14. This study provides the first complete estimate of population size and rate of increase of southern right whales along the southeastern Australian coastline. This knowledge is critical for assessing population status and recovery of southern right whales in Australia. It provides a basis for moni- toring persistence and responses of the population to environmental stressors. KEY WORDS: Southern right whale · Eubalaena australis · Calving ground · Population estimate · Photo-identification · Logans Beach 1. INTRODUCTION and estimated rate of increase have been observed between the southwestern (Western Australia and Southern right whales Eubalaena australis were South Australia) and southeastern (Victoria, New targeted for commercial hunting between 1790 and South Wales and Tasmania) Australian regions 1980, with at least 150 000 killed globally (Jackson et (Watson et al. 2015, Bannister 2018). al. 2008). In New Zealand and southeastern Aus- Evidence of genetic differentiation in mitochon - tralia, over 58 000 southern right whales were taken drial and microsatellite DNA haplotype frequencies (Carroll et al. 2014). Although the species is now between the 2 regions led to the delineation of dis- increasing in number, differences in population size tinct southwestern and southeastern Australian © The authors 2020. Open Access under Creative Commons by *Corresponding author: [email protected] Attribution Licence. Use, distribution and reproduction are un - †Deceased restricted. Authors and original publication must be credited. Publisher: Inter-Research · www.int-res.com 374 Endang Species Res 41: 373–383, 2020 management units (Carroll et al. 2011a). More Right Whale Photo Identification Catalogue (SEA recent work, however, has shown the situation to SRW PIC) containing >1000 images of 366 individual be more complex, providing evidence of whales whales sighted between 1993 and 2017 in South from different calving grounds mixing in the migra- Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and New South Wales. tory corridors, which may lead to gene flow In addition, the Australasian Right Whale Photo between these management units (Carroll et al. Identification Catalogue (ARWPIC) was established 2015). Carroll et al. (2011a, 2015) found no genetic to facilitate the comparison and storage of images distinction between southern right whales in New from Australia and New Zealand (R. Pirzl et al. Zealand and those at Logans Beach, Victoria, the unpubl.; information available from www. skadia. only recognised southeastern Australian calving com. au). SEA SRW PIC images have now been added ground. Carroll et al. (2011a, 2015) hypothesised to ARWPIC. that some whales from the New Zealand population Here, we use observation data from the ARWPIC, may be migrating to southeastern Australia or that SEA SRW PIC and the Victorian southern right whale whales from the 2 regions mix in the Tasman Sea. sightings databases and a superpopulation mark- The size of the southwestern southern right recapture model to provide estimates of abundance whale management unit was estimated via annual and rate of increase for southern right whales in coastal aerial surveys at around 3191 whales in southeastern Australia. Such superpopulation mark- 2018 (Smith et al. 2019), and strong population recapture models have been used to estimate popu- growth was observed between 1993 and 2018 (~6% lation numbers of southern right whales in New per annum; Bannister 2018, Smith et al. 2019). Zealand (Carroll et al. 2011b), humpback whales There have been no population estimates for the Megaptera novaeangliae in Ecuador (Félix et al. southeastern management unit, apart from a pre- 2011) and Alaska (Teerlink et al. 2015) and spinner liminary estimate of 257 whales based on coastal dolphins Stenella longirostris in Hawaii (Tyne et al. aerial surveys over 2 seasons (Watson et al. 2015) 2014). We also report on the relative abundance of and Kemper et al. (1997) who identified 54 adults mother-calf pairs at Logans Beach, Victoria, over the (including 22 breeding females) from aerial surveys last 3 decades. This study specifically aims to test between 1991 and 1993. While southern right whether the southeastern southern right whale pop- whales are listed as Least Concern under the Inter- ulation is showing signs of recovery and is the first national Union for Conservation of Nature Red List synthesis of data for this population since records and endangered under the Australian Government began in the mid-1980s. We also aim to provide a Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conserva- theoretical population model of breeding females at tion Act 1999, they are considered critically endan- Logans Beach which we can use to compare gered in Victoria (Victorian Department of Sustain- observed and expected values over time. Implica- ability and Environment 2013). The only area tions for management and the need for further where mother-calf pairs are seen regularly is off research are discussed. Logans Beach in southwestern Victoria (DSEWPaC 2012). The national conservation management plan for the southern right whale (DSEWPaC 2012) 2. MATERIALS AND METHODS emphasises the need to better understand popula- tion recovery in eastern Australia and differences 2.1. Photo-identification data between the southeastern and southwestern popu- lations. Having a reliable estimate of the current Photo-identification is a non-invasive method that abundance and rate of increase of the population, can be used to investigate the distribution, move- as well as usage patterns at the Logans Beach ment and population trends of cetaceans. Southern breeding ground, is crucial for monitoring the long- right whales have unique callosity patterns (patches term persistence of this population and its responses of thickened, keratinised tissue) that allow for the to anthropogenic factors and other environmental photo-identification of individuals (Payne et al. 1983, stressors. Bannister 1990, Best 1990, Burnell 2001). The SEA Two datasets currently exist for southern right SRW PIC was established in 2001 and includes whales in southeastern Australia: (1) a southern right images from 1993 onwards in southeastern Australia, whale sightings database for Victoria that includes including South Australia (east of Ceduna), Victoria, >3000 incidental sighting records collected since Tasmania and New South Wales. These photos 1985 and (2) the South East Australian Southern were collected during systematic photo-identifica- Stamation et al.: Southern right whales in southeastern Australia 375 tion flights and aerial surveys (Watson et al. 2015), catalogues from the Head of the Bight and Fowlers during opportunistic whale monitoring and sightsee- Bay in South Australia. ing flights, and by members of the public from land- based and vessel-based platforms. Only whales with images suitable for photo-identification were in - 2.2. Sightings data cluded in the catalogue. Features of each whale’s callosity pattern were Southern right whale sighting records at Logans coded and other conspicuous markings (such as belly Beach (38.404° S, 142.521° E) have been collected blazes) were noted. Image quality was variable but and maintained by Victorian Government staff since images were retained when callosity patterns could 1985. Because of the creation of the southeastern be coded with certainty. These data, along with their Australian southern right whale photo-identification
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