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Home , Huw Lewis, Ken Skates, Leanne Wood, Leighton Andrews, Nathan Gill, Rhodri Glyn Thomas

Assembly Bwletin Cynulliad

July 2013 Assembly Bwletin Cynulliad is a joint initiative between Grayling and the Institute of Welsh Affairs. Every month we aim to bring you the ABC of Welsh politics. For information on ABC, please contact: On the agenda this [email protected] or [email protected] month: To the polls…again : the future and the present

Articles Following the Secretary of State for Wales, David Jones MP, immediate has provoked debate in the ‘bubble’, To the polls…again resignation of following his speech in defence of the current long serving constitutional settlement. Against the back- Wales: the future and the Assembly drop of the Silk Commission and UK Govern- present Member Ieu- ment responses on the future constitutional an Wyn settlement in Wales, the Clwyd West MP stat- All for one, one for all Jones, the people of will go to polls ed that: “I believe the flexibil- for second time this year on 1 August 2013 to ity of the current model of Carwyn expands Cabinet select Mr Jones’ successor. The former Depu- Welsh devolution means that as Leighton exits front ty First Minister, who will take up a position it is the right one for Wales.” bench leading the Menai Science Park, was credited Mr Jones went on to com-

ment that his views were his Did Leanne spook by Assembly Presiding Officer as a “great Leighton? loss” and someone who “made so many own and not necessarily thoughtful and passionate contributions in the those of the UK Government. chamber over the past 14 years.” Mr Jones also claimed that Assembly proceed- Events will no doubt have raised hopes ings were ‘tame’ and that “What we need is not of maintaining the island seat following a good a Cardiff Bay bubble, but a legislature that is

result in the recent local authority election, in truly representative of the people of Wales and The second City of Wales? which they are the largest party – although not which robustly reflects their sometimes widely and its identity in control. Former BBC and Newyddion pre- divergent views”. With his comments not senter has been selected for pleasing many, Presiding Officer, Rosemary IWA Coffee Shop Debate @ Plaid Cymru, whilst , who will Butler AM, disagreed with his stance on As- Chapter - There's an SNP offer the greatest challenge to a Plaid Cymru sembly proceedings, stating that "We are not for that retention, have named former Police and Westminster, and the Assembly took a deci- Crime Commissioner candidate Tal Michael as sion from its inception it was not going to mir- their candidate. Others to confirm their candi- ror the schoolyard knockabout politics of West-

dates are with Steve minster, which poll after poll has suggested Churchman, with Neil turns people off the political process” whilst Fairlamb, of UKIP, and the Social- Plaid Cymru AM, Rhodri Glyn , reflect- ist Labour Party who have put forward a candi- ed on Mr Jones’ short time as an Assembly

date in the form of Kathrine Jones. Member stating: “I’ve never thought of David Jones as a great orator myself – I may be The by-election will be held on 1 August 2013. wrong though as I have not heard him speak that often.”

All for one, one for all

Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Liberal Democrats have taken a strategic step forward in rela- tion to budget negotiations, by announcing a partnership between the two parties to create a “strong bargaining position”.

With Welsh Labour holding 30 seats, and the opposition parties combined holding 30 – although that number stands at 29 at present due to immediate retirement of – Welsh Labour have required the support of both parties previously to get the Annu- al Budget through the Assembly. Commenting on the deal, which will only exist for budget negotiations, Plaid Cymru Leader, AM, said that it will “force the government to take action that will boost the economy, address its failures on health, and improve standards in our schools.” The other female leader in the Assembly, AM, added that “By working together we hope to get the most for the people of Wales.”

The position taken by the two parties certainly appears to put them in a dominant position in the future, although of could be trumped if Welsh Labour return a member for Anglesey, thus swinging the advantage in the Assembly to their favour. However a non-Labour winner would force the Welsh Government’s hand as a deal with the Welsh Conservatives would be unthinkable, therefore leaving AM and his cabinet troops with little options but to negotiate with the Plaid-Liberal Democrat group.

With the Welsh Liberal Democrats previously agreeing a deal with the Government to support a budget with additional funds for disadvan- taged pupils, and Plaid Cymru more recently agreeing to abstain for the vote in favour of apprenticeship finances, education would appear to be an obvious choice on their wish list for votes. However, with dwindling health budgets and services reorganisation concerns rife - none less so that in the Betsi Cadwaladr Health Board where both Chair and Chief Executive have recently stood down - any agreement on the Welsh Government Budget that doesn’t address health may be unavoidable.

Whilst the announcement is only in regard to the annual Budget, such one off acts of enterprise may not be so rare as more complex and controversial bills and legislation come forward. Only recently all three opposition parties threatened to oppose a Welsh Government bill on local government and democracy unless it stipulated a clause concerning senior council management pay, which resulted in a change of heart from the Welsh Government who subsequently supported such a clause. Such incidents would of course be avoided if Welsh Labour candidate Tal Michael were to win Anglesey.

Carwyn expands Cabinet as Leighton exits front bench

While the dust was still settling from the Assembly rarity of a Ministerial resignation, the rumour-mill of a Cabinet reshuffle had already began. Whilst not as dramatic as the Welsh Government’s previous drip-feeding twitter announcements, the Cabinet appointments were announced via social media, with AM, the previous Minister for Communities and Tackling Poverty moving to the now vacant Education department. Former deputy Minister for Skills and Technology, Jeff Cuthbert AM, moving up to be a formal fixture at the Cabinet table taking Mr Lewis’s de- partment, with newcomer Vaughn Gething AM taking up the new post of deputy Minister for Tackling Poverty. Finally AM , another newcomer to the Government, takes on the important brief of deputy Minister for Skills and Technology.

For Huw Lewis it will be his priority to distinguish his Cabinet responsibility from his constituency concerns in a clearer way than his predecessor. Photographed demonstrating against the closure of Primary school in , closing because of his Departments own policy to tackle surplus places, Mr Andrews claims that he was left in an untenable position when the First Minister failed to stand by him, Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies AM, calling his resignation, ‘’inevitable’’. That he appeared to sacrifice his Ministerial career for his constituency drew tangible support, with Rhondda MP, tweeting that he was ‘’very proud’’ of Mr Andrews, who had ‘’laid down his job to fight for the Rhondda’’. In stark contrast, Plaid Cymru’s shadow Education Minister Simon Thomas AM said the Education Minister’s ‘’long-held position on school surplus places has been undermined by his actions and this undermines the Welsh Government as a whole’’.

Regardless of the opinion to whether he acted within the realms of his remit, it cer- tainly allows Mr Andrews to focus on the up and coming fight with Plaid Cymru lead- er Leanne Wood over his Rhondda seat. So what of the new Cabinet members? Ken Skates, AM for Clwyd South, is a relative newbie having been elected in 2011. Previously a Community Councillor his rise to an important brief is certainly worth watching. Vaughn Gething AM for Cardiff South and Penarth is also of the new breed, elected in 2011. Formally president of the National Union of Students in Wales, Mr Gething is the first Black Minister in any of the devolved UK administra- tions. His meteoric rise to the Tackling Poverty department is one of considerable importance; his success in dealing with a critical problem for Wales could go a long way in ensuring Labour’s and his own success.

Did Leanne spook Leighton?

John Osmond probes the reasons behind the resignation of the Education Minister from the Welsh Cabinet

The after-shocks continue to reverberate across Cardiff Bay following ’ resignation as Education Minister a week ago. But there is still no real explanation for why he went. In the scheme of things a campaign over a primary school in a Minister’s constituency is a trivial issue to occasion the first such resignation in the history of Welsh democratic devolution.

Why was the apparent conflict of interest between Leighton Andrews’ Minsterial role and his defence of his constituency interests allowed to get out of hand in such a gratuitous way? I say ‘apparent’, because the word is deployed in Leighton Andrews’s carefully crafted resig- nation letter to First Minister Carwyn Jones:

“As you know, I have been and remain a passionate advocate of my Rhondda constituency. I regret that my commitment to my constitu- ents may have led me to an apparent conflict which has led to difficulty for your government.”

Plainly, there was a disagreement between the two about whether a conflict had occurred sufficient to require Leighton Andrews to go. In his response Carwyn Jones made that clear:

“I recognise very well that there is sometimes tension between the role of a Government Minister and the demands of a constituency AM. The Ministerial code aims to define the boundaries between the two roles and, on this occasion, I believe those roles were confused.”

This disagreement prompted to make a rare intervention, from the back seat as it were, to offer an account of what had happened. In his typically colourful way, the former First Minister suggested that Leighton Andrews had sailed close to the wind a few weeks earlier when he had suggested that services at the Royal Hospital in Llantrisant might be downgraded, requiring his constituents to travel to Cardiff. On that occasion Rhodri Morgan suggested that Carwyn Jones had handed Leighton Andrews a Yellow card.

Consequently, when just a few weeks later the Education Minister engaged in a prominent campaign alongside parents in defence of the threatened primary school in Pentre, he was handed a Red card. Rhodri Morgan was puzzled why Leighton Andrews had not operated in a softer key, offering support to the parents but keeping out of the public eye so far as campaigning was concerned.

The former First Minister suggested that Leighton Andrews might have followed what he had done himself some years ago when a prima- ry school in his Cardiff West constituency was threated with closure – publicly handing over his judicial responsibility to another Minister, and so freeing himself to campaign to his heart’s content.

The matter becomes even more mystifying when the case of Pentre Primary School is looked at in more detail. For council is quite right to close it, following the Welsh Government’s directive that every means should be found to reduce surplus places in our schools. Pentre Primary School can hold 202 pupils but, according to the Council, only has 73 on its roll, the highest number of surplus places of any school in the Rhondda. Closing it would save £171,000, but the local authority intends to spend £1.5 million on improving primary school which is only 0.9 miles away and where the Pentre pupils would go.

So we’re still left with the question of why Leighton Andrews almost willfully courted a conflict of interest and placed himself at odds with his First Minister. Some have suggested a conspiratorial motivation, with his seeking time on the back benches before engineering a re- turn to the front rank in a more powerful role, even one that could supplant the First Minister himself.

That, I think, is far-fetched. I agree with Rhodri Morgan who rejected this notion in his column at the weekend:

“Could Leighton Andrews use his period on the back benches to bring Oz-style faction politics to the Labour group in the Assembly, chal- lenging Carwyn to an internal election in a year or two? Not in a million years! … Whatever the reason for the falling out between the two of them, it isn’t about political philosophies.”

So what is the explanation? The best one I’ve heard is that Leighton Andrews has been spooked by Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood. In March she announced she will be relinquishing her List South Wales Central seat to fight First-Past-the-Post for the Rhondda. At the time Leighton Andrews dismissed this as a “political stunt”, but recent events suggest he is taking the Plaid threat more seriously.

On the face of it this seems as inexplicable as any other part of this saga. The Rhondda remains one of Labour’s safest seats. It is true that Plaid won it in the first Assembly election, with 48.7 per cent of the vote against Labour’s 40.5 per cent. However, Leighton Andrews won it back in 2003 with a convincing 61.6 per cent, against Plaid’s 27 per cent, and the results have remained on a par ever since. In the 2011 election Leighton increased his share of the vote by 4.9 per cent to a commanding 63.2 per cent, against Plaid’s 29.5 per cent.

However, you should never under-estimate the levels of anxiety and insecurity that can grip politicians about their constituencies, especial- ly when elections loom. The Rhondda has demonstrated in the past that if it feels ignored, sidelined or generally taken for granted it has other options than Labour.

Meanwhile, such Ministerial conflicts of interest are likely to recur. As Rhodri Morgan put it:

“During a period of public spending cuts, this is Wales’ $64bn question. Cabinet members are also local AMs. You don’t want voters to regret it when their local AM gets promoted to a ministerial job, for fear that ministers have to remain totally schtum over public service changes affecting their constituency. The spending cuts are going to carry on, so we have to resolve this issue in a grown-up way.”

John Osmond is Editor of ClickonWales. Forthcoming IWA Events

The second City of Wales? Swansea and its identity Sara Jones Dylan Thomas Centre, 1 Somerset Pl, Swansea SA1 1RR Grayling 30th July 2013, 6pm-8pm

2 Caspian Point Part of the 25th anniversary celebrations of the Institute of Welsh Affairs

Caspian Way To launch a programme of events exploring theidentify of Swansea, the Institute of Welsh Affairs is Cardiff holding an evening reception in the Dylan Thomas Centre on Tuesday July 30th. Swansea’s Nigel CF10 4DQ Jenkins and the IWA’s new Director, , will lead a discussion about the City’s future. The event will also launch a photo exhibition of 25 Welsh thinkers which accompanies our book 25/25 Vi- 029 2046 2507 sion: Welsh horizons across 50 years.

To view details on how to book, please click here [email protected] m IWA Coffee Shop Debate @ Chapter - There's an SNP for that Chapter, Canton, Cardiff

3rd September 2013, 6.30pm - 7.30pm

We have SNP for that: exploring users’ engagement in direct-to-consumer genetic testing with Dr Mi- chael Arribas-Ayllon.

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Kirsty Davies IWA Grayling Public Affairs 4 Cathedral Road Cardiff CF11 9IJ It can be difficult to keep up with an ever changing environment. Grayling Wales provides the expertise and knowledge to help you get ahead and effectively engage with Welsh pol- 029 2069 2898 itics, media and society.

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Assembly Bwletin Cynulliad is a joint initiative between Grayling and the Institute of Welsh Affairs, bringing you the ABC of Welsh politics every month.