Machine Learning and Algorithmic Pairs Trading in Futures Markets
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Section 1256 and Foreign Currency Derivatives
Section 1256 and Foreign Currency Derivatives Viva Hammer1 Mark-to-market taxation was considered “a fundamental departure from the concept of income realization in the U.S. tax law”2 when it was introduced in 1981. Congress was only game to propose the concept because of rampant “straddle” shelters that were undermining the U.S. tax system and commodities derivatives markets. Early in tax history, the Supreme Court articulated the realization principle as a Constitutional limitation on Congress’ taxing power. But in 1981, lawmakers makers felt confident imposing mark-to-market on exchange traded futures contracts because of the exchanges’ system of variation margin. However, when in 1982 non-exchange foreign currency traders asked to come within the ambit of mark-to-market taxation, Congress acceded to their demands even though this market had no equivalent to variation margin. This opportunistic rather than policy-driven history has spawned a great debate amongst tax practitioners as to the scope of the mark-to-market rule governing foreign currency contracts. Several recent cases have added fuel to the debate. The Straddle Shelters of the 1970s Straddle shelters were developed to exploit several structural flaws in the U.S. tax system: (1) the vast gulf between ordinary income tax rate (maximum 70%) and long term capital gain rate (28%), (2) the arbitrary distinction between capital gain and ordinary income, making it relatively easy to convert one to the other, and (3) the non- economic tax treatment of derivative contracts. Straddle shelters were so pervasive that in 1978 it was estimated that more than 75% of the open interest in silver futures were entered into to accommodate tax straddles and demand for U.S. -
Futures and Options Workbook
EEXAMININGXAMINING FUTURES AND OPTIONS TABLE OF 130 Grain Exchange Building 400 South 4th Street Minneapolis, MN 55415 www.mgex.com [email protected] 800.827.4746 612.321.7101 Fax: 612.339.1155 Acknowledgements We express our appreciation to those who generously gave their time and effort in reviewing this publication. MGEX members and member firm personnel DePaul University Professor Jin Choi Southern Illinois University Associate Professor Dwight R. Sanders National Futures Association (Glossary of Terms) INTRODUCTION: THE POWER OF CHOICE 2 SECTION I: HISTORY History of MGEX 3 SECTION II: THE FUTURES MARKET Futures Contracts 4 The Participants 4 Exchange Services 5 TEST Sections I & II 6 Answers Sections I & II 7 SECTION III: HEDGING AND THE BASIS The Basis 8 Short Hedge Example 9 Long Hedge Example 9 TEST Section III 10 Answers Section III 12 SECTION IV: THE POWER OF OPTIONS Definitions 13 Options and Futures Comparison Diagram 14 Option Prices 15 Intrinsic Value 15 Time Value 15 Time Value Cap Diagram 15 Options Classifications 16 Options Exercise 16 F CONTENTS Deltas 16 Examples 16 TEST Section IV 18 Answers Section IV 20 SECTION V: OPTIONS STRATEGIES Option Use and Price 21 Hedging with Options 22 TEST Section V 23 Answers Section V 24 CONCLUSION 25 GLOSSARY 26 THE POWER OF CHOICE How do commercial buyers and sellers of volatile commodities protect themselves from the ever-changing and unpredictable nature of today’s business climate? They use a practice called hedging. This time-tested practice has become a stan- dard in many industries. Hedging can be defined as taking offsetting positions in related markets. -
Buying Options on Futures Contracts. a Guide to Uses
NATIONAL FUTURES ASSOCIATION Buying Options on Futures Contracts A Guide to Uses and Risks Table of Contents 4 Introduction 6 Part One: The Vocabulary of Options Trading 10 Part Two: The Arithmetic of Option Premiums 10 Intrinsic Value 10 Time Value 12 Part Three: The Mechanics of Buying and Writing Options 12 Commission Charges 13 Leverage 13 The First Step: Calculate the Break-Even Price 15 Factors Affecting the Choice of an Option 18 After You Buy an Option: What Then? 21 Who Writes Options and Why 22 Risk Caution 23 Part Four: A Pre-Investment Checklist 25 NFA Information and Resources Buying Options on Futures Contracts: A Guide to Uses and Risks National Futures Association is a Congressionally authorized self- regulatory organization of the United States futures industry. Its mission is to provide innovative regulatory pro- grams and services that ensure futures industry integrity, protect market par- ticipants and help NFA Members meet their regulatory responsibilities. This booklet has been prepared as a part of NFA’s continuing public educa- tion efforts to provide information about the futures industry to potential investors. Disclaimer: This brochure only discusses the most common type of commodity options traded in the U.S.—options on futures contracts traded on a regulated exchange and exercisable at any time before they expire. If you are considering trading options on the underlying commodity itself or options that can only be exercised at or near their expiration date, ask your broker for more information. 3 Introduction Although futures contracts have been traded on U.S. exchanges since 1865, options on futures contracts were not introduced until 1982. -
Evaluating the Performance of the WTI
An Evaluation of the Performance of Oil Price Benchmarks During the Financial Crisis Craig Pirrong Professor of Finance Energy Markets Director, Global Energy Management Institute Bauer College of Business University of Houston I. IntroDuction The events of late‐summer, 2008 through the spring of 2009 have attracted considerable attention to the performance of oil price benchmarks, most notably the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract (“WTI” or “CL” hereafter) and ICE Futures’ Brent crude oil contract (“Brent futures” or “CB” hereafter). In particular, the behavior of spreads between the prices of futures contracts of different maturities, and between futures prices and cash prices during the period following the Lehman Brothers collapse has sparked allegations that futures prices have become disconnected from the underlying cash market fundamentals. The WTI contract has been the subject of particular criticisms alleging the unrepresentativeness of the Midcontinent market as a global price benchmark. I have analyzed extensive data from the crude oil cash and futures markets to evaluate the performance of the WTI and Brent futures contracts during the LH2008‐FH2009 period. Although the analysis focuses on this period, it relies on data extending back to 1990 in order to put the performance in historical context. I have also incorporated some data on physical crude market fundamentals, most 1 notably stocks, as these are essential in providing an evaluation of contract performance and the relation between pricing and fundamentals. My conclusions are as follows: 1. The October, 2008‐March 2009 period was one of historically unprecedented volatility. By a variety of measures, volatility in this period was extremely high, even compared to the months surrounding the First Gulf War, previously the highest volatility period in the modern oil trading era. -
Forward Contracts and Futures a Forward Is an Agreement Between Two Parties to Buy Or Sell an Asset at a Pre-Determined Future Time for a Certain Price
Forward contracts and futures A forward is an agreement between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a pre-determined future time for a certain price. Goal To hedge against the price fluctuation of commodity. • Intension of purchase decided earlier, actual transaction done later. • The forward contract needs to specify the delivery price, amount, quality, delivery date, means of delivery, etc. Potential default of either party: writer or holder. Terminal payoff from forward contract payoff payoff K − ST ST − K K ST ST K long position short position K = delivery price, ST = asset price at maturity Zero-sum game between the writer (short position) and owner (long position). Since it costs nothing to enter into a forward contract, the terminal payoff is the investor’s total gain or loss from the contract. Forward price for a forward contract is defined as the delivery price which make the value of the contract at initiation be zero. Question Does it relate to the expected value of the commodity on the delivery date? Forward price = spot price + cost of fund + storage cost cost of carry Example • Spot price of one ton of wood is $10,000 • 6-month interest income from $10,000 is $400 • storage cost of one ton of wood is $300 6-month forward price of one ton of wood = $10,000 + 400 + $300 = $10,700. Explanation Suppose the forward price deviates too much from $10,700, the construction firm would prefer to buy the wood now and store that for 6 months (though the cost of storage may be higher). -
Pricing of Index Options Using Black's Model
Global Journal of Management and Business Research Volume 12 Issue 3 Version 1.0 March 2012 Type: Double Blind Peer Reviewed International Research Journal Publisher: Global Journals Inc. (USA) Online ISSN: 2249-4588 & Print ISSN: 0975-5853 Pricing of Index Options Using Black’s Model By Dr. S. K. Mitra Institute of Management Technology Nagpur Abstract - Stock index futures sometimes suffer from ‘a negative cost-of-carry’ bias, as future prices of stock index frequently trade less than their theoretical value that include carrying costs. Since commencement of Nifty future trading in India, Nifty future always traded below the theoretical prices. This distortion of future prices also spills over to option pricing and increase difference between actual price of Nifty options and the prices calculated using the famous Black-Scholes formula. Fisher Black tried to address the negative cost of carry effect by using forward prices in the option pricing model instead of spot prices. Black’s model is found useful for valuing options on physical commodities where discounted value of future price was found to be a better substitute of spot prices as an input to value options. In this study the theoretical prices of Nifty options using both Black Formula and Black-Scholes Formula were compared with actual prices in the market. It was observed that for valuing Nifty Options, Black Formula had given better result compared to Black-Scholes. Keywords : Options Pricing, Cost of carry, Black-Scholes model, Black’s model. GJMBR - B Classification : FOR Code:150507, 150504, JEL Code: G12 , G13, M31 PricingofIndexOptionsUsingBlacksModel Strictly as per the compliance and regulations of: © 2012. -
Term Structure Models of Commodity Prices
TERM STRUCTURE MODELS OF COMMODITY PRICES Cahier de recherche du Cereg n°2003–9 Delphine LAUTIER ABSTRACT. This review article describes the main contributions in the literature on term structure models of commodity prices. A first section is devoted to the theoretical analysis of the term structure. It confines itself primarily to the traditional theories of commodity prices and to their explanation of the relationship between spot and futures prices. The normal backwardation and storage theories are however a bit limited when the whole term structure is taken into account. As a result, there is a need for an extension of the analysis for long-term horizon, which constitutes the second point of the section. Finally, a dynamic analysis of the term structure is presented. Section two is centred on term structure models of commodity prices. The presentation shows that these models differ on the nature and the number of factors used to describe uncertainty. Four different factors are generally used: the spot price, the convenience yield, the interest rate, and the long-term price. Section three reviews the main empirical results obtained with term structure models. First of all, simulations highlight the influence of the assumptions concerning the stochastic process retained for the state variables and the number of state variables. Then, the method usually employed for the estimation of the parameters is explained. Lastly, the models’ performances, namely their ability to reproduce the term structure of commodity prices, are presented. Section four exposes the two main applications of term structure models: hedging and valuation. Section five resumes the broad trends in the literature on commodity pricing during the 1990s and early 2000s, and proposes futures directions for research. -
Options Strategy Guide for Metals Products As the World’S Largest and Most Diverse Derivatives Marketplace, CME Group Is Where the World Comes to Manage Risk
metals products Options Strategy Guide for Metals Products As the world’s largest and most diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group is where the world comes to manage risk. CME Group exchanges – CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX – offer the widest range of global benchmark products across all major asset classes, including futures and options based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural commodities, metals, weather and real estate. CME Group brings buyers and sellers together through its CME Globex electronic trading platform and its trading facilities in New York and Chicago. CME Group also operates CME Clearing, one of the largest central counterparty clearing services in the world, which provides clearing and settlement services for exchange-traded contracts, as well as for over-the-counter derivatives transactions through CME ClearPort. These products and services ensure that businesses everywhere can substantially mitigate counterparty credit risk in both listed and over-the-counter derivatives markets. Options Strategy Guide for Metals Products The Metals Risk Management Marketplace Because metals markets are highly responsive to overarching global economic The hypothetical trades that follow look at market position, market objective, and geopolitical influences, they present a unique risk management tool profit/loss potential, deltas and other information associated with the 12 for commercial and institutional firms as well as a unique, exciting and strategies. The trading examples use our Gold, Silver -
Bankruptcy Futures: Hedging Against Credit Card Default
CONSUMER LENDING Bankruptcy Futures: Hedging Against Credit Card Default by Russ Ray his article discusses the new bankruptcy futures contract to be launched by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and examines the mechanics and contract specifications of this innovation, illus- trating its hedging potential in the process. ometime during the latter half of 1999 or early Credit-card debt is becoming particularly burden- 2000, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange intends some. The average credit-card balance is approximately to launch an innovative new futures contract that $2,500, with typical households having at least three dif- will offer consumer-lending institutions, particularly ferent bank cards. The average card holder also uses six credit-card issuers, a hedge against the bankruptcies additional cards at service stations, department stores, filed by their borrowers. Bankruptcy futures—contracts specialty stores, and other vendors issuing their own cred- to buy or sell a cash-valued index based upon the cur- it cards. rent number of actual bankruptcies—will enable con- Commensurate with such increases in consumer sumer lenders to transfer default risk to other lenders debt is an ever-growing rise in consumer bankruptcies, and/or speculators holding opposite expectations. which, in turn, represent an ever-increasing proportion Significantly, this new contract also constitutes a proxy of total bankruptcies. In 1998, 96.9% of all bankruptcy variable for banks' confidence in the value and liquidity filings were personal—not business—bankruptcies. (In of their own loan portfolios, just as other proxy vari- terms of dollar volume, however, businesses continue to ables now measure consumer and investor confidence. -
Derivative Securities
2. DERIVATIVE SECURITIES Objectives: After reading this chapter, you will 1. Understand the reason for trading options. 2. Know the basic terminology of options. 2.1 Derivative Securities A derivative security is a financial instrument whose value depends upon the value of another asset. The main types of derivatives are futures, forwards, options, and swaps. An example of a derivative security is a convertible bond. Such a bond, at the discretion of the bondholder, may be converted into a fixed number of shares of the stock of the issuing corporation. The value of a convertible bond depends upon the value of the underlying stock, and thus, it is a derivative security. An investor would like to buy such a bond because he can make money if the stock market rises. The stock price, and hence the bond value, will rise. If the stock market falls, he can still make money by earning interest on the convertible bond. Another derivative security is a forward contract. Suppose you have decided to buy an ounce of gold for investment purposes. The price of gold for immediate delivery is, say, $345 an ounce. You would like to hold this gold for a year and then sell it at the prevailing rates. One possibility is to pay $345 to a seller and get immediate physical possession of the gold, hold it for a year, and then sell it. If the price of gold a year from now is $370 an ounce, you have clearly made a profit of $25. That is not the only way to invest in gold. -
Encana Distinguished Lecture Series
Oil Futures Prices and OPEC Spare Capacity J.P. Morgan Center for Commodities Encana Distinguished Lecture Series September 18, 2014 Ms. Hilary Till, Principal, Premia Risk Consultancy, Inc., http://www.premiarisk.com; Research Associate, EDHEC-Risk Institute, http://www.edhec-risk.com; and Co-Editor, Intelligent Commodity Investing, http://www.riskbooks.com/intelligent-commodity-investing Disclaimers • This presentation is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. • The opinions expressed during this presentation are the personal opinions of Hilary Till and do not necessarily reflect those of other organizations with which Ms. Till is affiliated. • The information contained in this presentation has been assembled from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by the presenter. • Any (inadvertent) errors and omissions are the responsibility of Ms. Till alone. 2 Oil Futures Prices and OPEC Spare Capacity I. Crude Oil’s Importance for Commodity Indexes II. Structural Curve Shape of Individual Futures Contracts III. Structural Curve Shape and the Implications for Crude Oil Futures Contracts IV. Commodity Futures Curve Shape and Inventories Icon above is based on the statue in the Chicago Board of Trade plaza. 3 Oil Futures Prices and OPEC Spare Capacity V. Special Features of Crude Oil Markets VI. What Happens When OPEC Spare Capacity Becomes Quite Low? VII. The Plausible Link Between OPEC Spare Capacity and a Crude Oil Futures Curve Shape VIII. Current (Official) Expectations on OPEC Spare Capacity IX. Trading and Investment Conclusion 4 Oil Futures Prices and OPEC Spare Capacity Appendix A: Portfolio-Level Returns from Rebalancing Appendix B: Month-to-Month Factors Influencing a Crude Oil Futures Curve Appendix C: Consideration of the “1986 Oil Tactic” 5 I. -
Monte Carlo Strategies in Option Pricing for Sabr Model
MONTE CARLO STRATEGIES IN OPTION PRICING FOR SABR MODEL Leicheng Yin A dissertation submitted to the faculty of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Statistics and Operations Research. Chapel Hill 2015 Approved by: Chuanshu Ji Vidyadhar Kulkarni Nilay Argon Kai Zhang Serhan Ziya c 2015 Leicheng Yin ALL RIGHTS RESERVED ii ABSTRACT LEICHENG YIN: MONTE CARLO STRATEGIES IN OPTION PRICING FOR SABR MODEL (Under the direction of Chuanshu Ji) Option pricing problems have always been a hot topic in mathematical finance. The SABR model is a stochastic volatility model, which attempts to capture the volatility smile in derivatives markets. To price options under SABR model, there are analytical and probability approaches. The probability approach i.e. the Monte Carlo method suffers from computation inefficiency due to high dimensional state spaces. In this work, we adopt the probability approach for pricing options under the SABR model. The novelty of our contribution lies in reducing the dimensionality of Monte Carlo simulation from the high dimensional state space (time series of the underlying asset) to the 2-D or 3-D random vectors (certain summary statistics of the volatility path). iii To Mom and Dad iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First, I would like to thank my advisor, Professor Chuanshu Ji, who gave me great instruction and advice on my research. As my mentor and friend, Chuanshu also offered me generous help to my career and provided me with great advice about life. Studying from and working with him was a precious experience to me.