US Aid to Pakistan: Nation-Building and Realist Objectives in the Post 9/11 Era

US Aid to Pakistan: Nation-Building and Realist Objectives in the Post 9/11 Era Alicia Hayley Mollaun Submitted 24 March 2016 A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy of The Australian National University. © Copyright by Alicia Hayley Mollaun, 2016 All Rights Reserved This thesis is my own original work and the result of original research carried out by the author, except where otherwise stated in the text. Alicia H Mollaun 24 March 2016 2 Acknowledgements After a long five years of working on this thesis, there are many people who have helped me to finish this thesis, kept me sane, given me time off work and reminded me that there was light at the end of the tunnel. To the chair of my supervisory panel, Professor Stephen Howes, thank you for your patience, guidance, wisdom and support in developing and finalising this thesis. I have appreciated your help and encouragement in shaping my research into a thesis that we can both be proud of. To my supervisory panel Associate Professor Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth/ANU), Professor Bill Maley AM (ANU) and Professor Samina Yasmeen AM (UWA), and to academic colleagues at the Crawford School of Public policy, thank you for always being there to bounce ideas off. It was a privilege to work with you and I appreciated and admired the passion you have for public opinion research, South Asian studies and US political studies. Thank you also to Dr Megan Poore for your sage advice, academic skills support and sense of humour – you are a treasure to all Crawfies! To my PhD colleagues, especially Dr Jill Sheppard and (almost Dr) Marija Taflaga, thank you for our regular coffee and lunch dates, we developed a great support network and friendship over our candidatures that will continue long beyond submission. Our chats about politics and non-PhD related topics kept me sane over the past 5 years. To my colleagues at the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, thank you for your support and encouragement, and most of all, for giving me the time off needed to finish this thesis. Finally, to my friends and family, I appreciate your encouragement and your continual interest in the progression of my thesis, and listening to me explain my frustrations and joys with academic research. Most of all, thank you to my husband, Peter Bartlett, who has been a continual source of support, encouragement and wisdom. 3 Living in Pakistan was one of the most exciting and challenging periods of our lives and we are the richer for the experience. This thesis will be a great reminder and reflection of our time there for many years to come. 4 Abstract The United States (US) has always used its aid program as a strategic lever in foreign policy. In the early days of aid, it was used to prosecute the Cold War. Now aid supports the United States in its effort to win the war on terror. Aid is used both to pursue short-term or “realist” objectives (e.g., to win support for US foreign policy goals) and long-term or “nation-building” ones (e.g. to strengthen governance). The trade-offs and tensions between these goals have been examined for the Cold War period (e.g., Seitz 2012), but not the post 9/11 one. This research takes a case-study approach and examines US aid to Pakistan. It is based primarily on interviews with the Pakistani and American elite collected in Pakistan between October 2011 and October 2013 and the United States in March 2012. The period of research (2011-2013) is one in which the Obama Administration tried to pivot its relationship with Pakistan away from a focus on realist objectives (principally, the war in Afghanistan) towards nation-building ends, for example, through a much larger civilian aid program to improve Pakistan’s governance and the economy. This thesis examines the success of that pivot, and argues it was limited, on three main grounds First, both groups of elite view Pakistan’s challenges are mostly nation-building in nature, and particularly related to its economy (and, in the case of the Pakistani elite, internal security needs). But both groups nevertheless perceive that the US still primarily wants cooperation on countering terrorism and in Afghanistan. Second, the leverage and goodwill that US aid provides is seen to be undermined by the pursuit of its realist objectives. Third, US aid is seen by many in the elite as targeted at the elite not the masses. Some interesting differences in views between the two groups of elite are observed. In general, more importance was attached to nation-building objectives by US respondents than by Pakistani respondents. For example, US respondents were more 5 likely to think that the US was concerned with trying to improve Pakistani governance and was trying to influence public opinion in Pakistan, whereas Pakistani respondents viewed US aid as much less concerned with governance and more directed to the Pakistani elite. Despite these differences, which are suggestive of at least a genuine US intent to engage in nation-building, the findings of the thesis point to a failure by the Obama Administration to follow through on its nation-building objectives in Pakistan. Nation-building floundered, it is argued, because of ongoing disputes in relation to realist goals, especially in relation to the war on Afghanistan. Several published studies of US-Pakistan relations argue for a further nation-building push. In my interviews, I find considerable support for such a position in the US elite. However, I also find little sympathy for it on the Pakistani side. The Pakistani elite is concerned rather to regain equality in their relationship with the US. They see the need to put their own house in order, but have little appetite for US assistance. This calls into question the likely success of any further nation-building push on the part of the US in Pakistan. The academic contribution of this thesis is to establish the relevance of Cold War aid analysis for the post-9/11 era. The findings are consistent with much of the Cold War literature, though some nuances are provided to earlier conclusions. The policy contribution is to suggest that in cases such as Pakistan where short-term foreign policy goals are of great importance the US should put nation-building on the back- burner. 6 Contents Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................ 3 Abstract .......................................................................................................................... 5 Chapter One: Introduction and context ........................................................................ 10 1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 11 1.2 The United States and nation-building: not just a post 9/11 phenomenon.. 13 1.3 Pakistan’s history and development: an overview ...................................... 19 1.4 US-Pakistan relations .................................................................................. 23 1.5 United States aid to Pakistan ....................................................................... 30 1.6 Conclusion................................................................................................... 36 Chapter Two: Literature review, research questions and method................................ 38 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 39 2.2 Pakistan studies ........................................................................................... 39 2.3 Motivations for and objectives of aid.......................................................... 41 2.4 Aid conditionality and leverage .................................................................. 44 2.5 Winning hearts and minds through foreign aid ........................................... 46 2.6 Research gaps and questions ....................................................................... 49 2.7 Methodology ............................................................................................... 51 2.8 Conclusion and thesis overview .................................................................. 61 Annex 2.1 – Guide to interview questions: Pakistani respondents .......................... 63 Annex 2.2 – Guide to interview questions: US respondents ................................... 64 Annex 2.3 – Biographies of Pakistani and US elite interview participants ............. 65 Chapter Three: What does Pakistan need? Divergent perspectives on its wicked nation-building challenge............................................................................................. 85 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 86 3.2 Pakistani elite perceptions of Pakistan’s challenges ................................... 87 3.3 American elite perceptions of Pakistan’s challenges .................................. 97 3.4 Discussion ................................................................................................ 104 3.5 Conclusion................................................................................................. 109 Annex 3.1: Pakistani elite perceptions of Pakistan’s challenges – categorisation (number of respondents) ........................................................................................ 111 Annex 3.2: US elite perceptions of Pakistan’s challenges – categorisation (number of respondents) ......................................................................................................

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