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South East Coastal Adaptation (SECA): Coastal Urban Climate Futures in SE Australia from Wollongong to Lakes Entrance - Final Report

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South East Coastal Adaptation (SECA): Coastal Urban Climate Futures in SE Australia from Wollongong to Lakes Entrance - Final Report South East Coastal Adaptation (SECA): Coastal urban climate futures in SE Australia from Wollongong to Lakes Entrance - Final Report Barbara Norman, Will Steffen, Bob Webb, Tony Capon, Bill Maher, Colin Woodroffe, Kerrylee Rogers, Rob Tanton, Yogi Vidyattama, Jacqui Lavis, Hamish Sinclair and Brian Weir SOUTH EAST COASTAL ADAPTATION Coastal Urban Climate Futures in South East Australia from Wollongong to Lakes Entrance University of Canberra SECA Project Team Chief Investigator Barbara Norman – University of Canberra Principal Investigators Will Steffen – The Australian National University Bob Webb – The Australian National University Tony Capon – University of Canberra Bill Maher – University of Canberra Colin Woodroffe – University of Wollongong Kerrylee Rogers – University of Wollongong Researchers Rob Tanton – NATSEM, University of Canberra Yogi Vidyattama – NATSEM, University of Canberra Jacqui Lavis – Adjunct Professor, University of Canberra Hamish Sinclair – PhD candidate, University of Canberra Brian Weir – PhD candidate, University of Canberra Published by the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility ISBN: 978-1-921609-94-7 NCCARF Publication 23/13 © University of Canberra and the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission from the copyright holder. Please cite this report as: Norman, B, Steffen, W, Webb, R, Capon, A, Maher, W, Woodroffe, C, Rogers, K, Tanton, R, Vidyattama, Y, Lavis, J, Sinclair, H, Weir, B 2012 South East Coastal Adaptation (SECA): Coastal urban climate futures in SE Australia from Wollongong to Lakes Entrance, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, pp. 130. Acknowledgement: This work was carried out with financial support from the Australian Government (Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency) and the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF). The views expressed herein are not necessarily the views of the Commonwealth or NCCARF, and neither the Commonwealth nor NCCARF accept responsibility for information or advice contained herein. The role of NCCARF is to lead the research community in a national interdisciplinary effort to generate the information needed by decision-makers in government, business and in vulnerable sectors and communities to manage the risk of climate change impacts. We wish to acknowledge the valuable contribution of Alison Foulsham in providing excellent editing and publication advice during the production phase of the final report. Report photos: Attributable to Barbara Norman or Kerrylee Rogers, unless otherwise specified. Cover image: © John Reid ii South East Coastal Adaptation Table of contents ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................. 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................. 2 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................... 8 1.1 Purpose of research ..................................................................................... 8 1.2 Coastal development, coastal planning and adaptation ............................ 8 1.3 Climate change and adaptation ................................................................... 9 1.4 Study area: Wollongong to Lakes Entrance ............................................. 10 1.5 Coastal settlements and communities ...................................................... 10 2. Project Aims and Method .............................................................................. 12 2.1 Project aim .................................................................................................. 12 2.2 An interdisciplinary approach ................................................................... 12 2.3 Approach ..................................................................................................... 12 2.4 Case Studies and Focus Groups ............................................................... 15 2.4.1 Case studies ............................................................................................... 15 2.4.2 Focus groups .............................................................................................. 15 2.5 An integrated approach to coastal urban futures .................................... 16 3. Themes ........................................................................................................... 18 3.1 Climate and water ....................................................................................... 18 3.2 Coastal landscapes ..................................................................................... 21 3.3 Settlements and infrastructure .................................................................. 26 3.4 Health and wellbeing .................................................................................. 27 4.1 Victoria ........................................................................................................ 31 4.1.1 State planning policies ................................................................................ 31 4.1.2 Regional coast and catchment strategies ............................................. 32 4.1.3 Related plans and research......................................................................... 34 4.2 New South Wales South Coast .................................................................. 34 4.2.1 State planning policies ................................................................................ 34 4.2.2 Coast and catchment strategies for NSW south coast ................................. 35 4.2.3 Related plans and research......................................................................... 36 4.2.4 Summary ..................................................................................................... 37 5 Findings from Case Studies and Focus Groups .......................................... 37 5.1 Seven case studies..................................................................................... 37 5.2 Focus groups .............................................................................................. 42 5.3 Implications for coastal adaptation in the south east region .................. 44 6. Small coastal towns future scenarios .......................................................... 45 6.1 Integrated scenarios ................................................................................... 45 6.2 Integration across change drivers and impacts ....................................... 48 6.3 Integration with local and regional policy and strategies ........................ 48 6.4 Higher-level integration .............................................................................. 49 6.5 Small coastal towns integrated scenario .................................................. 50 7. Potential strategies for adapting small coastal towns ................................ 56 7.1 An integrated regional approach ............................................................... 56 7.2 Adaptive planning and risk management for 2030 and beyond .............. 56 South East Coastal Adaptation iii 7.3 Strategies for climate-adapted coastal communities ............................... 56 8. Small coastal town futures ............................................................................ 59 8.1 Key messages ............................................................................................. 59 8.2. Principles for a climate-adapted small coastal town 2030 ....................... 60 8.3 Conclusion .................................................................................................. 61 References ................................................................................................................ 62 Appendix 1 Case studies ..................................................................................... 69 Case Study: Wollongong ...................................................................................... 70 Case Study: Sussex Inlet ...................................................................................... 76 Case Study: Batemans Bay .................................................................................. 82 Case Study: Narooma ........................................................................................... 90 Case Study: Eden .................................................................................................. 96 Case Study: Mallacoota ...................................................................................... 101 Case Study: Lakes Entrance .............................................................................. 108 Case Study references ........................................................................................... 114 Appendix 2 Focus Group questions ................................................................. 121 Appendix 3 Focus Group Minutes .................................................................... 122 Appendix 4 School of Art Environment Studio ................................................ 130 iv South East Coastal Adaptation List of figures Figure 1. Study Area Wollongong, NSW and Lakes Entrance, Victoria ............ 10 Figure 2. Ladder of opportunity ........................................................................
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