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Top Twenty Upcoming Games – Consumer Awareness

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Top Twenty Upcoming Games – Consumer Awareness FALL 2013 CONSUMER VIDEO GAME SURVEY We recently conducted a survey of over 1,000 gamers in an attempt to gauge awareness and purchase intentions for hardware, software, and peripherals through 2013 and into the release of next-gen consoles. If our previous surveys are any indication, the responses from our participants are a strong directional indicator of upcoming trends within the video game space. Whereas this report focuses on video game publishers and the positioning of software titles in the wake of E3, we also asked our respondents a series of bigger picture questions related to next-gen preferences, digital downloads, etc., the results of which we will publish at a later date. Consumer Awareness of Upcoming Software Titles With the highly-anticipated launch of Grand Theft Auto V behind us, the stage is now set for the crowded holiday release slate and the long-awaited next gen console battle. Our consumer awareness survey gives an indication of the buzz surrounding games both soon to be released as well as those still months or potentially years away. Our first question was an attempt to gauge consumer awareness of more than 70 upcoming video games expected in 2013/2014. We simply asked consumers to identify which games they had previously heard of. Top Twenty Upcoming Games – Consumer Awareness Top Twenty Upcoming Games - Consumer Awareness 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 (% respondents) (% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 4 Battlefield Flag Black IV: Creed Assassin's Origins Arkham Batman: Ghosts Duty: of Call Online Scrolls Elder II Souls Dark Dogs Watch 3 Rising Dead 2 Edge Mirror's III Hearts Kingdom Son Second Infamous: Battlefront Wars: Star gen) (next14 FIFA Truth Stick of The Park: South U Wii Bros. Smash Super 5 Halo 6 Turismo Gran Thief Fall Shadow Killzone: Titanfall Topping our list of games from an awareness perspective are the latest iterations of four of the industry’s most successful and high-profile franchises: EA’s Battlefield 4, Ubisoft’s Assassin’s Creed IV: Black Flag, Warner Bros.’ Batman: Arkham Origins , and Activision’s Call of Duty: Ghosts , all registering between 92-95% awareness among our survey respondents . With its release imminent, Battlefield 4 (due out Oct. 29th) has reached the #1 spot in consumer awareness at 95%, outpacing rival Call of Duty: Ghosts , which came in at #4 with 92% awareness. The two blockbuster games placed at or near the top of our two most recent surveys, evidence of the level of marketing support that these two games bring to the table. As always, the responses underscore the importance of sequels in the video game market, with new IP only representing two of the top twenty. Ubisoft’s Watchdogs (#7 with 81% awareness) has reached an impressive rank, but it has been around far longer than other new IP and has even been the subject of an ongoing marketing campaign. Activision’s Destiny (#22 with 65% awareness) has fallen out of our top 20 (previously #16 with 71% awareness) whereas EA’s Titanfall (#20 with 66% awareness) has entered the list for the first time. Titanfall was officially announced for the first time at Microsoft’s E3 event (June 10th) whereas we got our first look at Destiny much earlier at the February 20 th unveiling of the PS4. Both games have won numerous awards during E3 in June and later at the European ‘gamescom’ video game trade show held in Germany this past August. Upcoming Software Purchase Intentions Our second question asked consumers which of the same ~70 games they planned to own, on a scale of one (would most like to own) to five (would like to own, but lowest priority), respondents were also given the option of answering “N/A” if they were unaware of a game or had no interest in owning it. The chart below illustrates which games ranked highest based on our weighted scoring system, in which we awarded games five points for each response of “most like to own” and one fewer point for each progressively lower response (ie. four points for a response of “two,” three points for a response of “three,” etc.). Top 20 Purchase Intentions 1600 "Weighted Score" of Most Desired Games 1400 1200 1000 800 (points) 600 400 200 0 Dogs Watch Origins Arkham Batman: Battlefront Wars: Star Destiny 4 Battlefield Flag Black IV: Creed Assassin's 2 Edge Mirror's III Hearts Kingdom Son Second Infamous: Phantom The V: Solid Pain Gear Metal Titanfall Division The Clancy's: Tom Truth Stick of The Park: South U Wii Bros. Smash Super Online Scrolls Elder 5 Halo 8 Kart Mario World 3D Mario Super Ghosts Duty: of Call II Souls Dark Ubisoft’s Watch Dogs took the top spot on our list, which is an impressive feat for an all new IP. With many parallels being drawn to Grand Theft Auto , Watch Dogs is an open world action adventure game being developed by Ubisoft. It should be noted that Watch Dogs was in the news recently when developers announced the delay of the game’s release from mid-November until spring of next year. This is good news for EA and ATVI, who will release Battlefield 4 and Call of Duty: Ghosts respectively in the next few weeks, as the delay greatly reduces competition in the near term for consumer attention and dollars. Standing tough at #3 on our list was EA’s Star Wars Battlefront , the first game expected from the recently signed agreement with Disney for EA to develop a series of Star Wars games concurrent with (although not directly based on) the theatrical release of the next Star Wars trilogy. This remains a surprise given the fact that the only details available on the game are its name, one very brief trailer, and a general release timeframe of 2Q/3Q 2015 (the anticipated release timeframe of the first film in the series). Activision’s Destiny came in at #4 (effectively flat from our prior survey), which remains an impressive feat for a new IP, especially one (unlike Battlefront ) that has no name brand recognition and was only recognized by 65% of our respondent group. The other highly-touted new IP, EA’s Titanfall, moved up the ranks considerably from #20 in our previous survey to #11 this time around. Titanfall has been making up ground on Destiny in the last few months by virtue of the amount of time since it was announced as well as continued positive press and awards it has been earning. With regard to Titanfall it is important to note that it is a Microsoft (Xbox 360 and Xbox One) exclusive title (at least in the near term) and as such, it has reduced its potential audience dramatically. As shown below, amongst likely future owners of Xbox One in our survey, Titanfall is actually the second most desired game out of all titles. This represents a drastic increase from its #11 position when surveying a sample of the entire console gaming population. Destiny comes in a close second amongst likely Xbox One owners, however it falls to #6 most desired amongst likely owners of only PlayStation 4. Titanfall is the Second Most Desired Game Amongst Likely Xbox One Owners "Weighted Score" of Most Desired Games by Those Planning to Only Own Xbox One 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 5 Halo Titanfall Destiny 4 Battlefield Battlefront Wars: Star Dogs Watch Origins Arkham Batman: Division The Clancy's: Tom 5 Motorsport Forza Flag Black IV: Creed Assassin's 3 Rising Dead Ghosts Duty: of Call Spark Project Rome of Son Ryse: Truth Stick of The Park: South Online Scrolls Elder 2 Edge Mirror's Break Quantum Warfare Garden Zombies vs. Plants Patriots 6: Rainbow One of EA’s biggest missteps during the previous console transition was that it made the wrong bets with regard to the various consoles, aligning its efforts with the PS3, the Xbox 360, and the Wii, in that order, which proved to be the reverse order of hardware sales at least early on in the current generation. Titanfall appears to be a high- potential new IP, and we hope that this opportunity does not become squandered by the lack of relative interest in the Xbox One compared to the PS4. EA’s Battlefield 4 came in at #5 on the overall list, a notable 14 spots ahead of Call of Duty: Ghosts , the game against which Battlefield will be most closely compared. It is important to note that neither of these games is likely to finish outside of the top four, with Call of Duty the odds on favorite to outsell BF4. However, it is clear that Battlefield has overtaken Call of Duty among the avid gaming community, likely due at least in part to the annual release of Call of Duty . And while both games will rely heavily on mass-market gamers to reach their full potential (15+ million units each), Call of Duty ’s precipitous decline among these avid gamers (more on this in the Activision section) is nonetheless concerning. While many of the highly-anticipated games on our list aren’t expected out until 2014 (and in some instances 2015), we believe that this is arguably the most impressive holiday lineup ever. Following a string of annual sports titles ( NCAA Football in July, Madden in August, FIFA in September) an unprecedented holiday slate of blockbusters began with Grand Theft Auto V in September, and is now followed by Battlefield 4 , Batman: Arkham Origins , and Assassin’s Creed IV: Black Flag in October, followed by Call of Duty: Ghosts in November.
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