Officer Career Management Additional Steps Toward Modernization— Appendixes ALBERT A. ROBBERT, CAITLIN LEE, WILLIAM H. WAGGY II, KATHERINE L. KIDDER, NATASHA LANDER, AGNES GEREBEN SCHAEFER Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense Approved for public release; distribution unlimited C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR4337 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2021 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. 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Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface The 2018 and 2019 National Defense Authorization Acts (NDAAs) (Public Laws 115-91 and 115-232) called for the Secretary of Defense, in consultation with the secretaries of the military departments, to provide a series of three reports on potential changes regular and reserve officer career management, including some statutory changes enacted into law. The Director of Officer and Enlisted Personnel Management within the Office of the Secretary of Defense asked the RAND National Defense Research Institute for assistance in obtaining perspectives from service secretariat, military, and reserve staffs on the issues covered in these reports. Findings were published in a report titled Officer Career Management: Steps Toward Modernization in the 2018 and 2019 National Defense Authorization Acts (Robbert et al., 2019). Work on these issues led policymakers within the Office of the Secretary of Defense to identify other potentially useful steps toward modernization of officer career management. The RAND National Defense Research Institute was again asked to evaluate these potential steps and to obtain the perspectives of the military departments where appropriate. This appendix contains supplemental material to a report that provides findings from that effort, which was completed in calendar year 2019. Since the potential steps we evaluated in this effort were complementary to the momentum generated by the 2018 and 2019 NDAAs, we titled this report so as to indicate the linkage. The research reported here was completed in March 2020 and underwent security review with the sponsor and the Defense Office of Prepublication and Security Review before public release. This research was sponsored by the OSD and conducted within the Forces and Resources Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD), which operates the National Defense Research Institute (NDRI), a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense intelligence enterprise. For more information on the RAND Forces and Resources Policy Center, see www.rand.org/nsrd/frp or contact the director (contact information is provided on the webpage). iii Contents Preface ...................................................................................................................................... iii Figures....................................................................................................................................... v Tables ....................................................................................................................................... vi Abbreviations .......................................................................................................................... vii Appendix A. Opt-Out Model .................................................................................................... 1 The Catch-Up Model ............................................................................................................ 3 The Pay-Forward Model ....................................................................................................... 6 Appendix B. Permanent and Temporary Promotions and Grades .......................................... 11 Historic Use of Temporary Promotions: Wartime Requirements and Grade Ceiling Accommodations .......................................................................................................... 11 Temporary Promotions and Reserve Commissions for Officers on Active Duty ............ 13 Future Uses of the Temporary Promotion Authority .......................................................... 15 A Note on Frocking ............................................................................................................ 17 Appendix C. Air Force Officer Grade Relief Memo .............................................................. 18 Appendix D. Stagnant Officer Model ..................................................................................... 20 Model Specifications .......................................................................................................... 20 Model Results ..................................................................................................................... 23 Variability of Perceived Performance by Talent Level ...................................................... 24 Conclusion .......................................................................................................................... 26 Appendix E. O-5 Separation Patterns by Occupational Category .......................................... 28 References ............................................................................................................................... 33 iv Figures Figure A.1. Comparison of Underlying Reasons to Opt Out .......................................................... 2 Figure D.1. Career Life-Cycle Model ........................................................................................... 22 Figure E.1. Average Army O-5 Population, 2001–2018, by Occupational Category and Years of Active Commissioned Service ............................................................................... 28 Figure E.2. Normalized Average Army O-5 Population, 2001–2018, by Occupational Category and Years of Active Commissioned Service ......................................................... 29 Figure E.3. Average Air Force O-5 Population, 2001–2018, by Occupational Category and Years of Active Commissioned Service ............................................................................... 29 Figure E.4. Normalized Average Air Force O-5 Population, 2001–2018, by Occupational Category and Years of Active Commissioned Service ......................................................... 30 Figure E.5. Average Marine Corps O-5 Population, 2001–2018, by Occupational Category and Years of Active Commissioned Service ........................................................................ 30 Figure E.6. Normalized Average Marine Corps O-5 Population, 2001–2018, by Occupational Category and Years of Active Commissioned Service .................................. 31 Figure E.7. Average Navy O-5 Population, 2001–2018, by Occupational Category and Years of Active Commissioned Service ......................................................... 31 Figure E.8. Normalized Average Navy O-5 Population, 2001–2018, by Occupational Category and Years of Active Commissioned Service ......................................................... 32 v Tables Table A.1. Opt-Out Versus Normal Promotion with No Change to Promotion Likelihood .......... 4 Table A.2. Opt-Out Versus Normal Promotion with Improved Promotion Likelihood ................. 4 Table A.3. Opt-Out Versus Normal Promotion When Faced with Up or Out ................................ 5 Table A.4. Opt-Out Versus Normal Promotion When Faced With Up or Out and Low Normal Promotion Probability ............................................................................................................. 6 Table A.5. Opt-Out Versus Normal Promotion with No Change to O-5 Promotion Likelihood ... 8 Table A.6. Opt-Out Versus Normal Promotion with Improved O-5 Promotion Likelihood .......... 8 Table A.7. Opt-Out Versus Normal Promotion with Improved O-5 Promotion Likelihood for Officer Facing Low O-5 Promotion Probability Under a Normal Career Timeline ............... 9 Table A.8. Improved Below-the-Promotion-Zone Promotion Likelihood to O-5 Following Opting Out of Consideration to O-4 ....................................................................................... 9 Table B.1. Limitation on the Number of Temporary Promotions ................................................ 14 Table D.1. Outcome Across Perceived Talent, Job Matching, and Promotion Variables ............ 24 Table D.2.