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Aging Trends: South Africa

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Aging Trends: South Africa International Brief U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration BUREAU OF THE CENSUS by Kevin Kinsella, International Programs Center, U.S. Bureau of the Census IB/97-2 Monica Ferreira, HSRC/UCT Centre for Gerontology, University of Cape Town Issued August 1997 Concern about population in Africa African region. Within Southern that large numbers of children con- traditionally has focussed on rela- Africa, South Africa has the highest tinue to be born each year, such tively high rates of fertility and proportions of older population that the majority of the population mortality, expansion of basic health (Table 1), with more than 1 in 8 has been and still is under 20 programs, and, more recently, on persons (5.6 million) aged 50 and years of age. Conversely, the pop- the devastation resulting from the over and nearly 7 percent (2.9 mil- ulation in older age groups remains HIV/AIDS pandemic. Overlooked lion) aged 60 and above. Such ag- a small proportion of the total. The in the face of these pressing issues gregate figures, however, mask the White South African population, on is the fact that most African popula- diversity of aging among population the other hand, already evinces an tions are aging, albeit at slower groups. Figure 1 displays 1997 age structure similar to some of the rates than in much of the develop- population structures by 5-year age world’s more-developed countries. ing world. While gerontology is still groups. The pyramidal shape of After several decades of low fertility in its infancy throughout Africa, the Black population resembles (the 1996 total fertility rate for there is a growing recognition of that of developing countries in the Whites was 1.7 births per woman), population aging—especially in early stages of demographic transi- the largest 5-year age groups South Africa—and the social bene- tion, where fertility and mortality among Whites are between 25 and fits and problems associated with rates are relatively high and popu- 40. More than one-fourth of all this process. To date, awareness lations as a whole are “young.” Whites now are aged 50 or above, has been stimulated largely by The broad pyramid base indicates with nearly 14 percent in the community-based ethnographic studies. The major impediment to Table 1. a fuller understanding of population Percentage of Population in Older Age Groups: 1997 to 2025 aging has been the scarcity of rele- vant, reliable national-level data. In Age group the 1990s, however, researchers in South Africa have sought to re- Region/country Year 50+ 60+ 70+ dress this shortcoming through the Southern Africa 1997. 12.0 6.2 2.5 use of survey instruments and en- 2010. 14.1 7.5 3.2 hanced census design and tabula- 2025. 15.5 9.1 4.2 tion. This report summarizes the Botswana 1997. 9.7 5.4 2.4 major demographic aspects affect- 2010. 9.8 5.3 2.5 ing the aging of the South African 2025. 9.1 5.6 2.8 population and highlights several Lesotho 1997. 11.7 6.7 2.8 socioeconomic characteristics that 2010. 12.1 6.5 3.0 2025. 14.1 7.7 3.3 affect the wellbeing of older per- sons. South Africa 1997. 13.3 6.8 2.8 2010. 16.2 8.6 3.6 2025. 18.0 10.8 5.1 The Southern Africa region has the Zimbabwe 1997. 8.5 4.3 1.7 continent’s highest percentage of 2010. 8.6 4.7 2.2 older inhabitants; 6.2 percent of 2025. 8.4 4.9 2.4 population in 1997 was estimated to be 60 years of age or older, Note: The Southern Africa region comprises Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, slightly more than in the Northern Swaziland, and Zimbabwe. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Programs Center, International Database. 2 60-and-over category. Correspond- Figure 1. ing figures for Blacks are 11 and 6 Age Structure of South African Population by Group: 1997 percent, respectively, slightly less than for Asians and Coloureds Black (Table 2). 80+ Male 75–79 Female 70–74 The total population growth rate in 65–69 60–64 South Africa is falling rapidly as a 55–59 consequence of declining fertility 50–54 45–49 rates. As more persons live to old- 40–44 er ages, the growth rate of the 35–39 30–34 60-and-over population has come 25–29 to exceed that of the total popula- 20–24 15–19 tion (Figure 2), and the gap will 10–14 widen considerably in the future. 5–9 After the turn of the century, the 0–4 fastest growing population segment 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Millions is likely to be persons aged 70 and over. While age-group percent- ages are useful for appreciating the Coloured/Asian relative weights of different popula- 80+ tion segments, absolute numbers Male 75–79 Female are more important in terms of na- 70–74 65–69 tional population policy and pro- 60–64 gram development. Proportions 55–59 that change only slightly over time 50–54 45–49 may, in fact, deflect attention from 40–44 rapidly growing numbers of older 35–39 30–34 persons and the service require- 25–29 ments generated by such growth. 20–24 15–19 For example, although the percent- 10–14 age aged 50 and over for the Black 5–9 population in Table 2 changes only 0–4 modestly from 1997 to 2010, the 250200 150 100 50 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 absolute growth will be in excess of Thousands 1 million persons. White 80+ Median population age (the age Male 75–79 Female which divides a population into nu- 70–74 65–69 merically equal parts of younger and 60–64 older persons) is another indicator of 55–59 50–54 the aging process. South Africa cur- 45–49 rently has the highest median 40–44 35–39 age—22 years—in the Southern 30–34 Africa region, and this level is likely to 25–29 increase gradually but steadily 20–24 15–19 through the year 2025. Median age 10–14 varies greatly by population group 5–9 0–4 within South Africa, with a high of 34 years for Whites, 27 years for 250200 150 100 50 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 Thousands Asians, 25 years for Coloureds, and 20 years for Blacks. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Programs Center, International Database. 3 Table 2. Life Expectancy and Health Percentage of South African Population in Older Age Groups: 1997 to 2025 Overall life expectancy at birth in South Africa in 1997 is estimated Age group to be 54 years for males and 58 years for females. Again, there is Group Year 50+ 60+ 70+ enormous diversity among popula- Asian 1997. 16.1 7.2 2.4 tion groups (Figure 3). Life expec- 2010. 22.0 11.1 4.0 tancy for White South African 2025. 29.7 16.4 7.1 women exceeds that of women in Black 1997. 11.2 5.6 2.2 some European nations and is 25 2010. 13.4 6.9 2.9 years higher than for Black South 2025. 12.9 8.0 3.8 African men. The low levels of life Coloured 1997. 12.3 5.9 2.2 expectancy at birth for the Black 2010. 17.7 8.0 3.0 population reflect, to some extent, 2025. 27.2 14.0 5.1 the growing impact of HIV/AIDS White 1997. 26.0 14.3 6.7 mortality. The long-term conse- 2010. 32.5 19.0 8.4 quence of the HIV/AIDS epidemic 2025. 40.4 25.2 12.6 on population aging remains highly Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Programs Center, International uncertain. HIV/AIDS may suppress Database. urban growth rates in South Africa and in much of Sub-Saharan Afri- Figure 2. ca, and have a selective impact on Average Annual Percentage Growth of Total young and middle-aged adults who and Older Population would be potential supporters of Percent 3.0 and caregivers to the elderly. Over time, however, the projected impact of the epidemic becomes more 2.5 widely distributed across age groups (Way, 1992); there are few- 2.0 Age 70 and over Age 60 and over er children because of pediatric AIDS mortality and reductions in 1.5 numbers of potential mothers, and there are fewer adults overall be- 1.0 cause of reduced infant survival and adult AIDS mortality. 0.5 Total, all ages As is the case in virtually all nations of the world, South African women 0.00 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 outlive men, regardless of popula- tion group. Except among Blacks, Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Programs Center, International the gender difference in life expec- Database. tancy is greater than in most devel- Figure 3. oping countries. Among persons Years of Life Expectancy at who survive to age 60, women re- Birth and Age 60: 1997 tain their life expectancy advantage Male over men. At older ages, however, At Birth At Age 60 Female years of remaining life expectancy 70 17 for population groups are quite sim- White White 77 21 ilar. 52 15 South Africa is in the midst of an Black Black 55 18 epidemiologic transition from the 59 14 prominence of infectious diseases Coloured Coloured 68 18 to chronic diseases, with different emerging health patterns among 65 15 Asian Asian population groups.
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