Palace says PRRD not engaged in early campaigning

By Ruth Abbey Gita-Carlos March 12, 2021, 3:32 pm

President Rodrigo Duterte (Presidential Photo)

MANILA – Malacañang on Friday emphasized that President Rodrigo Duterte is not using his position to engage in premature campaign activities by supposedly endorsing his preferred candidates for the 2022 national and local elections.

In a press conference held in Ilocos Norte, Palace spokesperson Harry Roque said Duterte’s top priority is to ensure the success of the government’s mass coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) vaccination program.

“Sa ngayon po, nakatutok ang Presidente dito sa ating pagbabakuna dahil kinakailangan sa lalong madaling panahon, makahanap tayo ng bakuna at maibigay ito sa ating mga kababayan (The President is currently focused on our vaccination drive because we need to source out vaccines to be administered to our fellow countrymen as soon as possible),” he said.

Roque issued the statement, a day after Duterte teased Senator Christopher Lawrence “Bong” Go anew about the solon’s possible presidential bid in 2022.

Duterte, in a speech delivered in Negros Oriental on Thursday, said Go had asked him to make a public announcement about the senator’s plan to run for president next year.

It was unclear whether Duterte, who is fond of making jokes, was serious when he announced Go’s supposed presidential ambition.

Go, who attended the event in Negros Oriental, shook his head in disapproval when Duterte made the pronouncement.

Roque, quoting Go, said: “Palagi namang nagbibiro si Presidente (The President is always joking).”

Roque added that Duterte is more focused on giving his Cabinet a marching order to go around the country and ensure the successful implementation of his administration’s mass immunization campaign. “The primary thrust pa rin ng gobyerno (of the government) is the pandemic and that is why all members of the Cabinet were given the mandate to go and support the vaccination program of the government,” he said.

In his commentary show “Counterpoint” aired Wednesday, Chief Presidential Legal Counsel Salvador Panelo said he believes that Go is already “ripe” for the 2022 presidential derby.

There have also been calls for Go and Duterte to run in tandem next year, with the senator and the President joining the presidential and vice presidential derbies, respectively.

Go has repeatedly denied that he wants to be Duterte’s successor, telling the public to “count [him] out” when it comes to talks about 2022 elections.

Roque said he has yet to talk to Duterte about the President’s election plans next year.

“Hindi ko pa po nakakausap ang Presidente tungkol sa bagay na ‘to. At ang plano ko po sana talaga ay magkaroon ng isang mahabang usapin tungkol sa pulitika (I have yet to talk to the President about this. My plan is to have a lengthy discussion with him regarding politics),” he said. (PNA)

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1133402

NBI files charges against Dacera companions

By Benjamin Pulta March 12, 2021, 7:01 pm

MANILA – Criminal charges were filed by the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) on Friday against the companions of the late flight attendant Christine Dacera, as well as the private lawyer and the police forensic investigator who initially handled the case.

In a press briefing, NBI officials led by spokesperson Ferdinand Lavin said charges of violation of Republic Act 9165, or the Comprehensive Dangerous Drugs Act of 2002, were filed against Mark Anthony Rosales for allegedly bringing party drugs and, along with Rommel Galido, for delivering and giving away the illegal substance.

Likewise charged for reckless imprudence resulting in homicide were John Pascual Dela Serna III, Jezreel Rapinan, Alain Chen, and Louie Delima for recklessly neglecting the victim.

NBI findings, however, showed no proof of abrasions in the victim's genitalia, as earlier claimed by forensic experts.

The 23-year-old Dacera, a flight crew of Philippine Airlines, was found unconscious in a bathtub inside a City Garden Grand Hotel room in Makati City on January 1. She was declared dead on arrival at Makati Medical Center. Initial reports indicated she was raped but the police failed to substantiate their claims.

"Re-autopsy on the cadaver of victim Dacera revealed that the cause of her death was microscopic evidence of peri-aortic hemorrhages and aortic wall disruption, suspicious for a bleeding dissecting aneurysm based on the review of slides of Philippine National Police (PNP) Crime Laboratory," the NBI said. Toxicology examinations on the cadaver showed the presence of Diltiazem, a medicine for high blood pressure.

“The results of the NBI investigation revealed the glaring inconsistencies of the PNP autopsy report," the report said.

The NBI disputed the police's conclusion that the victim's urinary bladder was empty and said that in fact, the NBI forensic team was able to extract 130 milliliters of urine and no abrasion was found in her labia majora.

Charges of perjury were also recommended against Galido, Dela Serna, and Darwin Macalla for allegedly providing false testimonies; and obstruction of justice against Rosales, Galido, Dela Serna, Gregorio Angelo De Guzman, Rapinan, Chen, Reymar Englis, Macalla, and lawyer Neptali Maroto for allegedly giving false or fabricated information to mislead or prevent the law enforcement agencies from apprehending the offenders.

Criminal charges for falsification of official document by a public officer were slapped against investigator, Maj. Michael Nick Sarmiento. (PNA)

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1133460 Further lockdowns will be heavy burden on Pinoys: Palace

By Ruth Abbey Gita-Carlos March 12, 2021, 3:07 pm

MANILA – Filipinos will have to endure a heavy burden in case the government continues to restrict public movement amid the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic, Malacañang said on Friday.

“Ang katotohanan niyan, ‘yung further lockdown talagang mas mahirap para sa ating kababayan (The truth is, further lockdown will make it more difficult for our fellow countrymen),” Presidential Spokesperson Harry Roque said in a press conference held in Ilocos Norte.

Roque made the admission, a day after President Rodrigo Duterte said he could not let the be on strict mode “forever”.

In a speech delivered Thursday in Negros Oriental, Duterte revealed his plan to further reopen the Philippine economy soon to help Filipinos cope with the impact of Covid-19 pandemic.

Duterte also said the further easing of quarantine measures in the country is possible, once the number of Filipinos who have received Covid-19 vaccines reaches one million.

Roque backed Duterte, saying the government wants a shift to the “new normal” since it already knows how to deal with the coronavirus.

“Let’s just say na after one year, alam na natin ang anyo ng ating kalaban. At alam na natin kung paano tayo mabuhay sa kabila ng Covid-19 (Let’s just say that after one year, we already know our enemy. We already know how to live despite the Covid-19 pandemic),” he said.

Roque said Duterte might consider relaxing further the community quarantine in the country by April.

“So, I think ang tinitignan natin ay kung pupuwede na tayo lalong magbukas pa ng ekonomiya pagdating po ng buwan ng Abril (So, I think, we will assess whether we can afford to further reopen our economy by April),” he said.

Amid plans to allow more sectors to resume operations, Roque reminded the public to continue following minimum public health standards.

Under the Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IATF- EID) Resolution 102 approved Thursday, all Filipinos are still required to wear face masks and face shields "appropriately."

Filipinos are also mandated to wash hands for “at least 20 seconds each time,” ensure the observance of social distancing and proper ventilation, and reduce time of interaction with people, according to IATF-EID Resolution 102. Metro Manila, Apayao, Baguio City, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Batangas, Tacloban City, Iligan City, Davao, and Lanao del Sur are under general community quarantine (GCQ) until March 31.

The rest of the country stays under the least restrictive modified GCQ (MGCQ). (PNA)

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1133420

Palawan fate decided via today’s plebiscite posted March 13, 2021 at 01:30 am by Vito Barcelo and Maricel V. Cruz

The Commission on Elections said voting for the postponed Palawan plebiscite – which will divide the province into three – would start at 7 a.m. and end at 3 p.m. today (Saturday).

The voters will only be asked to cast a yes vote if they are in favor of the split and no if they are against it.

The Palawan plebiscite will ratify Republic Act No. 11259 dividing Palawan into Palawan Del Norte, Palawan Del Sur and Palawan Oriental.

All registered voters must comply with health protocols, such as maintaining physical distance outside and inside voting precincts, and ensuring that bottles or dispensers of alcohol for sanitizing hands are available in these areas, the Comelec said.

A lot is at stake in the division of the biggest province in the country in terms of land area at nearly 15,000 square kilometers.

Voters and everyone involved in the plebiscite would be required to wear masks at all times.

“The wearing of face masks is mandatory, whether they are poor or rich,” Teopisto Elnas Jr., Comelec deputy executive director for operations said.

Each voter would be required to fill out a health declaration form at health stations to be set up in voting centers.

While the Comelec is expecting a low turnout of voters to determine whether Palawan will be split into three provinces, this will not affect the result.

Comelec data showed that Palawan has 490,639 registered voters, with 2,959 clustered precincts and 487 voting centers. The same number of precincts and voting centers will be used for the plebiscite.

Proponents of the division say it will shatter the traditional center-periphery development pattern where everything emanates from the capitol in Puerto Princesa.

Breaking down the province would mean three provincial governments, each with its own Internal Revenue Allotment, set of leaders, and a seat of government that is more accessible to the municipalities.

Those who oppose the division say the reduction claim it will make them more vulnerable to external security threats and exploitation by private firms interested in the area’s vast mineral and other natural resources.

One of the three lawmakers who pushed for the division of Palawan has expressed optimism that the plebiscite to be held for the purpose would yield a positive result. Rep. Franz Alvarez of Palawan maintained that splitting Palawan into three separate provinces to “bring closer expanded services to areas not previously served.”

Alvarez was one of the principal authors of a bill at the House of Representatives dividing the towns outside independent Puerto Princesa City into the proposed provinces of Palawan del Norte, Palawan Oriental, and Palawan del Sur.

The possible division of Palawan, he said, “will be advantageous as it will bring government services closer to the people.”

President Duterte signed on April 5, 2019 the law dividing Palawan into the provinces of Palawan del Norte, Palawan Oriental, and Palawan del Sur.

Under the proposal, Palawan del Sur will be considered the “mother province” and will be composed of the municipalities of Aborlan, Narra, Quezon, Rizal, Espanola, Brooke’s Point, Bataraza, Balacbac, and Kalayaan with Brooke’s Point as capital.

Palawan del Norte will consist of the municipalities of Coron, Culion, Busuanga, Linacapan, Taytay, and El Nido with Taytay as capital, while Palawan Oriental will be composed of the municipalities of Roxas, Araceli, Dumaran, Cuyo, Agutaya, Magsaysay, Cayancillo, and San Vicente with Roxas as capital.

Puerto Princesa City will not be part of the plebiscite and proposed division being a highly urbanized city (HUC).

The proposal provides that the election of the new officials for the three provinces will be during the May 2022 national and local polls.

Elected officials prior to the May 2022 elections will continue to serve their unexpired terms until after the election of new provincial officials.

In 2022, each newly-created province will have its own provincial governor, vice governor, Sangguniang Panlalawigan secretary and members, provincial administrator, provincial treasurer, and other provincial government officers.

Not all areas of Palawan are created equal. There are areas that have already gained headway because of investments made by past national and local governments, such as national roads or tourism development.

https://manilastandard.net/news/top-stories/349348/palawan-fate-decided-via-today-s-plebiscite.html

Denying Coast Guard access to China vessel slammed, as 'artistic protest' slated https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/metro/779451/denying-coast-guard-access-to-china-vessel- slammed-as-artistic-protest-slated/story/

Secure the north! PH Coast Guard stations to rise in Calayan Island

Published March 12, 2021, 1:45 PM by Richa Noriega The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) will construct stations in Calayan Island, Cagayan in order to strengthen the country’s maritime security in Northern Luzon.

https://mb.com.ph/2021/03/12/secure-the-north-ph-coast-guard-stations-to-rise-in-calayan-island/

The importance of celebrating PH’s role in historic Magellan–Elcano circumnavigation Willard Cheng, ABS-CBN News

Posted at Mar 13 2021 04:59 AM MANILA—Next week marks the start of major activities celebrating the Philippine segment of the circumnavigation of the world, as part of the Quincentennial Commemorations in the country.

At the time this story was posted, the Spanish training ship Juan Sebastián Elcano was on its way to the Philippines to join the commemoration of the Magellan-Elcano expedition that made the first circumnavigation of the world possible 500 years ago.

The ship will arrive on March 16, Tuesday, and will be in Suluan and Homonhon Islands until March 18 and later in Cebu on March 20 to 22, tracing the very places where the 16th century expedition landed and made first contact.

“I have to say that human contact was very fruitful especially for the Spanish because the Filipino sailors that came with their bancas, they helped the Spanish, sailors who were starving after this incredible sailing through the Pacific Ocean,” Spanish Ambassador Jorge Moragas said.

“So there was the first human touch that’s very fruitful and that showed the humanity, solidarity, and friendship of the Filipino people. So we want to underline and stress that part of the history as well.”

At the same time, President Rodrigo Duterte is expected to lead the unveiling of a historical marker in Guiuan town, the first of more than 30 historical markers signifying places linked to the Magellan- Elcano expedition and the country’s part in the first circumnavigation, described as an “achievement of humankind and science.”

“Sa pagdiriwang na ito na gaganapin sa Samar, ipapakita po natin ang mahalagang naging ambag ng mga Pilipino sa first circumnavigation of the world,” said Rene Escalante, chairman of the National Historical Commission and vice chair of the National Quincentennial Committee tasked to be the principal coordinator for all the activities related to the 2021 quincentennial commemorations.

“Kung atin pong maalala, noong dumating po sa ating bansa itong mga miyembro ng Magellan- Elcano expedition, karamihan po sa kanila ay may sakit, ang iba po talaga ay halos mamatay na sa gutom dahil sa napakahabang biyahe nila sa Pasipiko.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/spotlight/03/13/21/explainer-the-importance-of-celebrating-phs-role-in- historic-magellanelcano-circumnavigation

2 ranking NPA leaders yield in Bukidnon Published 16 hours ago on March 12, 2021 06:13 PM By John Roson Two ranking leaders of the New People’s Army surrendered and handed over a cache of high-powered firearms to government forces in Malaybalay City, Bukidnon, the military reported.

Brig. Gen. Ferdinand Barandon, Army 403rd Brigade commander, identified the surrenderors as Armando Daluniag and Roland Lagunday.

Daluniag, known by the aliases “Ambo,” “Satur,” “Pegan,” and “Dario,” served as commander of Headquarters Force Neo under the North-Central Regional Committee and was former deputy secretary of Guerilla Front 89, while Lagunday, known by the alias “Ben,” led a squad under the same unit.

https://tribune.net.ph/index.php/2021/03/12/2-ranking-npa-leaders-yield-in-bukidnon/

Sobejana ‘to the rescue’ as Senate panel calls for Parlade’s exit from NTF-ELCAC

Published March 12, 2021, 6:09 PM by Martin Sadongdong Lt. Gen. Antonio Parlade Jr., the embattled commander of the Southern Luzon Command (SoLCom), received a big-time morale boost amid calls from a Senate committee to have him ousted from the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTF- ELCAC).

This, after no less than Lt. Gen. Cirilito Sobejana, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) threw his support behind Parlade.

Last March 10, the Senate National Defense and Security Committee recommended that Parlade be removed as the spokesperson of the NTF-ELCAC, a civilian post. The panel said his continued stay is a violation of Article 16, Section 5 of the Philippine Constitution, which prohibits any active member of the AFP from holding a civilian position in the government.

Parlade is often criticized for making controversial statements, which human rights advocates brand as equivalent to red-tagging.

“Gen. Parlade’s statements to the public have the go signal from the Strategic Communications Committee of the NTF-ELCAC, which means that he secured proof or evidence before he releases it. We support not only the statements of Gen. Parlade but also the goals and objectives of the NTF-ELCAC,” Sobejana said on Friday, March 12.

On Thursday, Parlade once again raised eyebrows after he tagged as communists the nine individuals who were killed in the joint military and police operations in Calabarzon (Region 4A) last March 7.

But Sobejana kept distance on the particular matter, saying he would have to talk to Parlade and ask for the basis of the latter’s statements.

“I need to talk to him because I don’t want to make half-baked statements. In every statements that he make, he always share some data with me. But this time, we have yet to meet or talk. In due time, we will talk about that,” he said.

Human rights groups said that those killed were activists, while police claimed that they were communists who allegedly engaged security forces in a shootout. As spokesperson of the NTF-ELCAC, Parlade serves as a key official in raising public awareness on the government’s efforts to curb communist insurgency–a problem that has persisted in the country for over 50 years now.

The military official has received flak in the past for “red-tagging” celebrities, lawmakers, and activists, among others.

https://mb.com.ph/2021/03/12/sobejana-to-the-rescue-as-senate-panel-calls-for-parlades-exit-from- ntf-elcac/

Esperon testifies vs. Sison, 36 others over Leyte massacre, communist purgings

Published March 12, 2021, 2:26 PM by Martin Sadongdong

National Secretary Adviser (NSA) Hermogenes Esperon Jr. revealed Friday, March 12, that he has testified in court against Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) founder Jose Maria “Joma” Sison and 36 others in connection with the Inopacan massacre.

The massacre had to do with the alleged purge of several New People’s Army (NPA) rebels in Inopacan, Leyte, as discovered by the military in 2006.

During the continuation of the trial held last March 8 at the Manila Regional Trial Court (RTC) Branch 38, Esperon said he presented his personal account of the Inopacan massacre which transpired during the “Oplan Venereal Disease (VD)” supposedly launched by the CPP — and executed by its military wing, the NPA — in the 1980s to purge suspected government symphatizers among the Party’s ranks.

“Oplan VD, as it was named in Leyte, claimed the lives of an estimated 300 people as the CPP-NPA attempted to clean its ranks of alleged military informers and counter revolutionaries. It was likewise carried out to neutralize civilians suspected of being uncooperative to the CPP-NPA’s plans and agenda,” Esperon said in a statement.

Sison, who is in a self-exile in The Hague, Netherlands, and 36 other key figures of the CPP are facing charges for 15 counts of murder for their alleged links to the Inopacan massacre.

Esperon is one of 29 witnesses to the case. He said he personally visited the mass graves of the massacre victims when they were first discovered in Barangay Caulisihan, Inopacan, Leyte on Aug. 31, 2006.

During the discovery, more than 100 sets of human bones were found by the authorities, with only 15 of them identified. This led to the filing of the cases as recommended by Esperon, who was at the time the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP).

Esperon has since pursued the case against Sison and other top communist officials. He said he presented various pieces of evidence, including a copy of “Suffer Thy Comrades,” a book that detailed the interrogations and tortures conducted by the NPA among its members, and written by former rebel and award-winning author Robert Francis Garcia. He said he also submitted reports obtained by the military during its operations against the CPP-NPA including documents entitled “Mga Aral mula sa Naganap na Impiltrasyon sa Hangganang Quezon-Bicol (Lessons from the Infiltration of Quezon-Bicol)” which was written in 1983 by the Melito Glor Command (MGC), an NPA unit; and “Pangkalahatang Pagbabalik-aral sa Mahahalagang Pangyayari at Pasya (1989-1991) [A Complete Review of Important Events and Decisions 1989-1991].” According to Esperon, the MGC document “detailed how the MGC investigated, tortured, and buried in mass graves suspected infiltrators” while the second report discussed “the alarm given to territorial units, the internal purgings, and how it affected the organization.” The NSA also said he submitted as evidence a 2006 video clip of former Bayan Muna Party-List Rep. Satur Ocampo “acknowledging the purgings while committing that the Party will compensate the victims and the families they left behind.” “It is estimated that all the purgings nationwide cost more than 4,000 lives of NPA cadres, fighters, and civilians. I take the position that, as shown by the evidence, the Central Committee Members of the CPP-NPA-NDF (National Democratic Front of the Philippines), led by Jose Ma. Sison, are complicit and directly responsible for the mass murders,” Esperon said.

“The blood of these victims lie squarely in the hands of the perpetrators and implementers of these nationwide mass purges, regardless of the NPA’s blanket denial of its involvement therein. As my moral and social duty, I shall see to it that those responsible for these heinous crimes are held answerable to the bar of justice,” he stressed. https://mb.com.ph/2021/03/12/esperon-testifies-vs-sison-36-others-over-leyte-massacre-communist- purgings/

IBP, NUPL slam police request for names of lawyers representing ‘communist terrorist’ groups ABS-CBN News

Posted at Mar 12 2021 11:22 PM MANILA - The Integrated Bar of the Philippines on Friday slammed an alleged Philippine National Police (PNP) request from a court a for list of lawyers representing members of supposed "communist-terrorist" groups in the country.

The Supreme Court earlier said Calbayog Regional Trial Court received the request signed by a certain Police Lt. Fernando Calabria Jr. from the Calbayog City Police Station, but "no action" has been done by the said court so far.

"The letter disregards the very basic principle that lawyers are free and even duty-bound to represent those accused regardless of political or ideological persuasions so that their rights are protected, due process is observed, justice is done, and that the rule of law is upheld. Lawyers therefore should not be suspected, discriminated against, faulted, red-tagged, or attacked for doing their professional duty," IBP national president Domingo Egon Cayosa said in a statement.

"The letter is improper, deplorable, and alarming."

Cayosa called on authorities for a comprehensive probe on the request and "promote state responsibility to ensure that lawyers can do their job without threats, harassment, intimidation, or retribution."

"As we remain vigilant, we trust that Filipino lawyers will remain courageous and steadfast sentinels of the rule of law," he said.

The National Union of People's Lawyers (NUPL) also condemned the request. The NULP said the letter shows "barefaced disregard of the PNP for human rights, particularly the right to access lawyers and legal services.

"It is an affront to the right and duty of lawyers to exercise their profession without fear as well as the administration of justice," the NUPL said in a statement.

"The police has no right to profile lawyers on the basis of their clients' personalities or ideologies. Under the UN Basic Principles on the Role of Lawyers, lawyers must 'not be identified with their clients or their clients' causes as a result of discharging their functions.' Nevertheless, lawyers, like other citizens, are entitled to freedom of expression, belief, association and assembly. The persecution of lawyers, on account of their functions as officers of the court, simply cannot be tolerated," it said.

The union accused the PNP as the "leading perpetrators of lawlessness and terror" in the Philippines under the "murderous regime" of President Rodrigo Duterte, who came to power in 2016 on a promise to eradicate crime and illegal drug trade through violent means.

"It was the police that mercilessly killed suspected drug offenders in the tens of thousands and, most recently, nine activists in Southern Tagalog -- tokhang-style -- while allegedly enforcing search warrants for loose firearms. Even the reported assassins of Calbayog City Mayor Ronald Aquino are uniformed police personnel," the NUPL said.

The police request came days after Aquino and several others were killed. Authorities claimed it was a shootout between the mayor's men and the police, but a lawmaker, along with Aquino's son, argued it was an ambush by non-uniformed cops.

"The letter intensifies the atmosphere of fear and repression with which lawyers are trying to perform their sworn duties towards the courts, society, and their clients, regardless of the latter's political beliefs. It has no objective other than to create a virtual hitlist of lawyer targets to be 'neutralized.' Needless to state, it must be rebuffed, even condemned, by the courts," the NUPL said.

At least 54 lawyers, judges and prosecutors have been killed during the term of Duterte, the union said, and the PNP's request to get the names of lawyers of CTG members' "produces a chilling effect" to legal counsels in the Philippines.

"We thus reiterate our calls for measures that will ensure that lawyers such as ourselves will be able to perform all of our professional functions without intimidation, hindrance, harassment or improper interference. We also demand that the PNP immediately desist from harassing our colleagues in the legal profession -- lawyers for "CTG personalities" or not," the NUPL said.

According to Cayosa, the IBP was assured by top PNP officials that there was no directive to Calabria to procure the names of legal counsels.

https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/12/21/ibp-nupl-slam-police-request-for-names-of-lawyers- representing-communist-terrorist-groups

Bishop sees 'obsession' with military action causing human rights violation https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/779374/bishop-sees-obsession-with-military-action- causing-human-rights-violation/story/

All-women ‘family trade’

ByRENE ACOSTA MARCH 13, 2021 THE recent arrest of nine women would-be suicide bombers following a military sweep in Sulu province has exposed bid to bolstera their “disturbing” terror campaign possibility in that Mindanao the Islamic and elsewhere. State (IS) and its local fronts, collectively known as Daulah Islamiyah (DI), have turned to widows and other “orphans of war” in their recruitment in a Post-operation investigations revealed that all of the women are close relatives, either by affinity or consanguinity, while some are widows of key leaders and members of the Islamic State and the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) killed in the relentless counterterrorism operations in the province.

https://businessmirror.com.ph/2021/03/13/all-women-family-trade/

PMA adopts Mayor Isko as new member of ‘Sanlingan Class 2005’

Published March 12, 2021, 8:55 PM by Andrea Aro Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko Moreno” Domagoso took an oath as a new member of Sanlingan Class 2005 of the Philippine Military Academy (PMA) Friday (March 12).

Domagoso and other key personalities such as Batangas Vice-Governor Mark Leviste, LT. Commander Diether Ocampo of Philippine Coast Guard Auxiliary, Technical Sgt. Willy Caliboso of Philippine Airforce and Reynaldo Laboy Jr. took an oath as adopted members of Sanlingan Class 2005 of PMA at the Manila City Hall on Friday.

The local chief executive felt honored and grateful to be part of the new members of the class despite the pandemic.

“Thank you, going to PMA, being accepted along PMA is hard, passing PMA is really hard. We know the sufferings and dedications here by every class, everybody of the PMA. You are the prim of the crowd that’s why I’m honored na masama niyo kami di ko alam kung ano ang nakita niyo sa akin (to be included in your class. I don’t know what you saw in me) but I’m grateful and thankful for each and every one,” he said during the oath-taking ceremony.

According to Domagoso, despite the differences among Filipinos, the country and the citizens remain united as one.

“We may have differences in languages, culture, and traditions and in fact naturally we have been divided by nature that isang Pilipinas tayo nothing more, nothing less. isang bansa, isang diwa sa puso natin, tayong lahat ay Pilipino (One country, one spirit in our hearts, we’re all Filipinos),” Domagoso said.

“Pipilitin ko na maipagmalaki niyo naman ako na hindi kayo nagkamali, pipilitin ko sa munti kong kaparaanan ng mabuting bilang bagong kasapi ng 2005 Sanlingan class ng PMA yun na lang ang isusukli ko sainyo sa binigay niyo sa aking karangalan (I will do what it takes in my way as a new member of 2005 Sanlingan class of PMA. So that I can repay you for giving me an honor), as I have said it is not easy to be part of PMA it’s no joke,” he added.

The nation’s capital took part in the history that had happened in the country, according to Domagoso. “Sa bulwagan ng lungsod ng Maynila at makikita niyo na dito isinasaad ang kasaysayan ng buong bansa ay halos naganap dito sa kapitolyo ng ating bansa (In the city hall of Manila you can see that the history of the whole country which almost took place here in the capital of our country)” he said.

“Sabi nga ng awit ng Maynila ‘Maynila, Maynila dalhin mo ang bandila’ yan ang isang awit ng aming lungsod na iniaalay sa lahat ng taong dadako sa lungsod ng Maynila ay simbolo ng pag-asa, simbolo ng oportunidad, simbolo ng pagkakaisa tulad ng ginagawa ng kasalukuyang administrasyon ng Maynila (The song of Manila says ‘Manila, Manila bring the flag’ that is a song of our city that is offered to everyone who comes to the city of Manila is a symbol of hope, a symbol of opportunity, a symbol of unity as what the current Manila administration is doing),” the city mayor added.

https://mb.com.ph/2021/03/12/pma-adopts-mayor-isko-as-new-member-of-sanlingan-class-2005/

Sulu, Tawi-Tawi get share of COVID-19 vaccine supply

Published March 12, 2021, 1:14 PM by Martin Sadongdong The provinces of Sulu and Tawi-Tawi in the southernmost part of the country have finally received its first doses of anti-coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccines for its medical frontliners, the military bared Friday, March 12.

Sulu received 208 doses of the British-Swede brand AstraZeneca vaccine and 2,360 doses the Chinese-made Sinovac Biotech jab, while Tawi-Tawi accepted 101 doses of AstraZeneca and 1, 212 vials of Sinovac.

Lt. Gen. Corleto Vinluan Jr., commander of the Western Mindanao Command (WesMinCom), said that the vaccines were delivered via Fokker transport aircraft from the (PAF) last Thursday.

He said the vaccines delivered by the troops in Sulu would be given to medical frontliners at the Integrated Provincial Health Office (IPHO)-Sulu, which personally received the shipment from the military.

Meanwhile, the vaccines sent to Tawi-Tawi were initially turned over to Brig. Gen. Arturo Rojas, commander of Joint Task Force Tawi-Tawi, and local Inter-Agency Task Force (IATF) officials at the Sanga-Sanga Airport in Bongao town.

“The vaccines are delicate and should be administered within five days to achieve optimum potency so we must ensure its on-time and safe transport,” said Rojas, who led the turnover of the vaccines to IATF officials led by Provincial Administrator Mobin Gampal and Dr. Sangkula Laja, of the Integrated Provincial Health Office (IPHO) – Tawi- Tawi.

Last week, President Duterte ordered vaccine czar Carlito Galvez Jr. to tap the military and police in ensuring the equal distribution of anti-COVID vaccines to all areas in the country.

https://mb.com.ph/2021/03/12/sulu-tawi-tawi-get-share-of-covid-19-vaccine-supply/

Army helps settle bloody clan war in Cotabato City

Published March 12, 2021, 12:00 PM by Philippine News Agency COTABATO CITY (PNA) – The Army-led Joint Task Group Kutawato (JTGK) has facilitated the settlement of a long-standing family feud here, the military announced Friday.

The warring family members (foreground) hand over their firearms to police and military representatives during the “rido” (family feud) settlement in Barangay Tamontaka 3, Cotabato City on Thursday (March 11, 2021.) The firearms consisted of an M16 rifle, a Carbine rifle, and two .45-caliber pistols. (Photo courtesy of 6ID / via PNA / MANILA BULLETIN)

Col. Jose Ambrosio F. Rustia, commander of the JTGK, said the two feuding groups were the family of Ansari Kadatwan, chairperson of Barangay Tamontaka 3, and that of Theng Salik, a former “tanod” (watchman) in the same village.

On Thursday afternoon, the families settled their differences after weeks of mediation.

“The settlement was made possible through the combined efforts of (the) JTGK and city police in close coordination with the city mayor’s office,” Rustia said.

It was not clear what triggered the clan war and how many lives have been lost during their misunderstanding.

“No one from both sides would like to talk about it,” he said, adding that both families agreed to surrender their firearms and committed to ending their bloody conflict.

The surrendered firearms consisted of an M16 rifle, a Carbine rifle, and two .45-caliber pistols.

Maj. Gen. Juvymax R. Uy, the Army’s 6th Infantry Division commander, lauded the efforts of the JTGK, the city police, and local government officials in selflessly reaching out to both parties to forge a peaceful settlement of their differences. “I commend our troops for promoting peace and unity to the families who made the realization to bring an end to their quarrel,” said Uy, who also heads the Joint Task Force Central.

https://mb.com.ph/2021/03/12/army-helps-settle-bloody-clan-war-in-cotabato-city/

Vaccinated AFP front-liners reach almost 15K

By Priam Nepomuceno March 12, 2021, 2:45 pm

(Photo courtesy of AFP Public Affairs Office)

MANILA – The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) on Friday announced that it has successfully inoculated almost 15,000 front line personnel with the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) vaccines.

Citing latest data, the AFP said a total of 14,969 military front-liners have been vaccinated as of Thursday.

It has also transported 39,000 vials of Sinovac's CoronaVac coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) vaccines to various military treatment facilities (MTFs).

“The AFP’s delivery of the coronavirus vaccines is now in full gear in support of the government’s vaccination campaign against the Covid-19 pandemic. With the ongoing distribution and inoculation of our frontline personnel, we hope to contribute to the speedy restoration of normalcy in the country,” AFP chief-of-staff Lt. Gen. Cirilito Sobejana said.

As of this report, 16 MTFs in Luzon were able to receive 30,600 vials of CoronaVac, of which 13,555 personnel were vaccinated.

Among the facilities in the National Capital Region were V. Luna Medical Center, Station Hospital, General Hospital, Philippine Air Force General Hospital, and Manila Naval Hospital.

Also from Luzon were Wallace Air Station Medical Infirmary and Naval Station Ogbenar Medical Station in La Union; Fort Del Pilar Station Hospital in Benguet; Station Hospital in Nueva Ecija; Basa Air Base Hospital and Air Force City Hospital in Pampanga; Camp Aquino Station Hospital in Tarlac; Camp Guillermo Nakar Station Hospital in Lucena; Cavite Naval Hospital; Camp Elias Angeles Station Hospital in Camarines Sur; and Naval Station Julhasan Arasain Medical Dispensary in Albay.

In the Visayas, 4,200 vials were delivered in five MTFs with 684 frontline personnel already vaccinated.

The facilities were Camp Peralta Station Hospital in Capiz; Benito N. Ebuen Air Base Hospital, Camp Lapu-Lapu Station Hospital and Naval Base Rafael Ramos Medical Dispensary in Cebu; and Camp Vicente Lukban Station Hospital in Samar. Six MTFs in Mindanao received 4,200 doses with 730 personnel vaccinated. The medical facilities were Camp Evangelista Station Hospital in Misamis Oriental; Camp Panacan Station Hospital in Davao Del Norte; Camp Manuel T. Yan Sr Station Hospital in Davao City; Camp Gonzalo H. Siongco Station Hospital in Maguindanao; Camp Navarro General Hospital and Edwin Andrews Air Base Hospital in Del Sur.

The AFP continues to utilize its land and air assets for the continuous delivery of vaccines to other authorized vaccination facilities nationwide.

Just recently, the newly acquired Black Hawk helicopters were deployed to deliver 1,800 doses of CoronaVac and 58 boxes of personal protective equipment to Basco, Batanes.

“The full cooperation of our members, especially our front line personnel is needed if we are to make significant milestones in our fight against Covid-19. With them protected, our regular members too can avail of the safe and effective vaccines to further reinforce our collective measures to protect ourselves, our loved ones, and our country from the effects of the pandemic,” Sobejana said. (PNA)

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1133401

China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and More Join Forces 'in Defense' of U.N.

BY TOM O'CONNOR ON 3/12/21 AT 2:52 PM EST

China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and other nations have united to issue a message in support of the United Nations' founding treaty, seeking to promote multilateralism and diplomacy over the use of force against perceived violations from other U.N. member states.

The coalition, comprised of 17 signatories calling themselves "the Group of Friends in Defense of the Charter of the United Nations," included Algeria, Angola, Belarus, Bolivia, Cambodia, China, Cuba, Eritrea, Iran, Laos, Nicaragua, North Korea, Russia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Syria, Venezuela and the State of Palestine, a U.N. non-member observer state.

Their March 10 concept note, obtained by Newsweek, said the group "will strive to preserve, promote and defend the prevalence and validity of the UN Charter."

The group said that the charter, first signed during the final months of World War II, today "has a renewed and even more important value and relevance, particularly in the midst of the COVID- 19 pandemic, while providing a platform for, among others, promoting the prevalence of legality over the use of force and for both discussing and coordinating possible joint initiatives for fostering the respect to the purposes and principles enshrined in the UN Charter."

Among these principles are "non-interference in the internal affairs of States, peaceful settlement of disputes, and to refrain from the use or threat of use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any State, as enshrined in the UN Charter."

The group said it will also more broadly defend "the values of dialogue, tolerance and solidarity, mindful of the fact that these are all at the core of international relations and remain vital for the peaceful coexistence among nations."

Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza (C) announces the creation of a group of countries that include China and Russia to defend the U.N. Charter and the rights of member states after US threats of a military invasion, at the U.N. headquarters on February 14th, 2019 in New York. The countries within the Group of Friends in Defense of the Charter of the United Nations have frequently criticized the United States for pursuing a unilateral foreign policy and intervening in the domestic affairs of other U.N. member states.LAURA BONILLA CAL/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

The note was included in a letter addressed to ambassadors of prospective nations interested in joining the group, which was first established two years ago. It requested a response be given by April 9 of this year.

https://www.newsweek.com/china-russia-iran-north-korea-more-join-forces-defense-un-1575810

Most Russians hold a positive view of neighbouring China, survey finds

• Nearly 60 per cent believe the two nations will move closer in the next decade, according to Chicago think tank and Moscow pollster • Results contrast sharply with recent polling suggesting growing anti-China sentiment in the US

Rachel Zhang in Shanghai Published: 9:00pm, 12 Mar, 2021

Most Russians hold a favourable view of China, according to a new survey, in contrast with the growing anti-China sentiment suggested by polling in the United States.

While Beijing and Moscow have drawn closer in recent years, amid worsening relations with Washington, some analysts have warned that Russia risks becoming too reliant on its neighbour.

But the survey conducted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and the Levada Analytical Centre in Moscow found that 74 per cent of respondents saw China favourably.

And nearly 60 per cent believed the two countries would move closer in the next decade, according to the poll results released on Thursday.

The Levada centre interviewed more than 3,200 adults for the study, in urban and rural parts of Russia, in August last year and from late January to early February this year.

While nearly three-quarters of respondents held a favourable view of China, just 45 per cent saw the European Union favourably, and it was 39 per cent for the US.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3125242/most-russians-hold-positive-view- neighbouring-china-survey

U.S., India, Japan and Australia counter China with billion-dose vaccine pact

By David Brunnstrom, Michael Martina, Jeff Mason 6 MIN READ

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States and three of its closest Indo-Pacific partners committed to supplying up to a billion coronavirus vaccine doses across Asia by the end of 2022 at a summit on Friday carefully choreographed to counter China’s growing influence.

U.S. President Joe Biden delivers his first prime time address as president, marking the one-year anniversary of widespread shutdowns to combat the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and speaking about the impact of the pandemic during an address from the East Room of the White House in Washington, U.S., March 11, 2021. REUTERS/Tom Brenner

President Joe Biden and the leaders of Australia, India and Japan - countries together known as the Quad - pledged at their first summit to work to ensure a free and open Indo-Pacific and to cooperate on maritime, cyber and economic security, issues vital to the four democracies in the face of challenges from Beijing.

“We’re renewing our commitment to ensure that our region is governed by international law, committed to upholding universal values, and free from coercion,” Biden told his counterparts, without naming China.

His national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, called the virtual summit a big day for U.S. diplomacy, as Washington sought to revitalize its alliances and approach Beijing from a position of strength ahead of a high-level U.S.-China meeting next week.

“The four leaders did discuss the challenge posed by China, and they made clear that none of them have any illusions about China,” Sullivan told reporters, adding that they all believed democracy could outcompete “autocracy.”

Freedom of navigation in the South and East China Seas, recent cyberattacks and semi-conductor supply- chain security, were also discussed, along with the North Korean nuclear issue and the coup and “violent repression” in Myanmar, he said. In a joint statement, Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, pledged to work closely on COVID-19 vaccine distribution, climate and security.

“We strive for a region that is free, open, inclusive, healthy, anchored by democratic values, and unconstrained by coercion,” they added.

The leaders agreed to set up an experts’ group to help distribute vaccines, as well as working groups on climate change, technology standards, and joint development of emerging technologies. An in-person summit would be held later this year, they said. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-asia/in-china-strategy-biden-to-meet-with-leaders-of-australia- india-japan-idUSKBN2B40IP

US secretary of state calls Taiwan 'country'

By Keoni Everington, Taiwan News, Staff Writer

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday (March 10) referred to Taiwan as a country, a label usually avoided by his predecessors.

At the tail end of a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on the Biden administration's foreign policy agenda, Representative Young Kim (R-CA) noted that Taiwan has served for decades as an "invaluable security and global health partner to the United States." She pointed out that given Taiwan's contributions to the international community and its "strong democratic system," it has earned "a seat at the table like the WHO to share its expertise."

Kim then called on the Biden administration to include Taiwan in the upcoming Democracy Summit and to commence talks with it on a free trade agreement. Blinken responded that he is "absolutely committed" to her suggestions and that he shares her view that "Taiwan is a strong democracy" and "a very strong technological power."

He went on to say that Taiwan is "a country that can contribute to the world, not just its own people. COVID is a very good example of that." Young agreed with the diplomat's remarks.

Blinken's use of the term "country" could mark a new stage in Taiwan-US relations. Since the U.S. severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan under the Carter administration in 1979, the State Department self-imposed increasing layers of restrictions on official interactions with Taiwan for fear of agitating China. However, toward the end of his term as secretary of state, Mike Pompeo reevaluated these restrictions, recalling to CNA in a March 9 interview that, "We started staring at them and realized it was just crazy. We had this completely separate set of rules that made no sense." He said that after a full review, "it made sense for us to have more conversations, not fewer. To have more open conversations, not more clandestine conversations."

On Jan. 10, the State Department officially lifted its restrictions on official contact with Taiwan. Among those were prohibitions on using the terms "country" or "government" when referring to Taiwan.

By using the word "country," Blinken appears to have acknowledged the lifting of restrictions. However, only time will tell whether this was a slip of the tongue or a nod to a long-term policy.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4148761

U.S. condemns China at UN rights forum for abuse of Uighurs, Tibetans

By Stephanie Nebehay 3 MIN READ

GENEVA (Reuters) - The United States on Friday condemned China’s abuse of ethnic and religious minorities, including what it called “crimes against humanity and genocide” in Xinjiang against Muslim Uighurs and severe restrictions in Tibet.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who meets his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Alaska next week, is due to raise the treatment of Uighurs, U.S. officials have said.

China rejects U.S. charges that it has committed genocide against Uighur and other Muslims in the remote western region, where activists say more than 1 million are held in internment camps.

“We condemn China’s abuse of members of ethnic and religious minority groups including crimes against humanity and genocide in Xinjiang and severe restrictions in Tibet,” Mark Cassayre, U.S. charge d’affaires, told the U.N. Human Rights Council.

Chen Xu, China’s ambassador to the U.N. in Geneva, did not refer directly to Xinjiang in a speech saying that his country opposed politicisation of human rights issues.

Cuba, speaking on behalf of 64 countries including China, said Xinjiang is “an inseparable part of China” and urged states to “stop interfering in China’s internal affairs by manipulating Xinjiang-related issues, (and) refrain from making unfounded allegations against China out of political motivations”.

Britain’s ambassador, Julian Braithwaite, told the forum: “We remain deeply concerned by the extensive and systematic human rights violations in Xinjiang, including credible reports of forced labour and forced birth control.” China says the complexes it set up in Xinjiang provide vocational training to help stamp out Islamist extremism and separatism. Allegations of forced labour and human rights violations are “groundless rumour and slander”, the Chinese foreign ministry says.

Cassayre and Braithwaite raised concerns about Hong Kong, where 21 activists are to remain in custody after a court on Friday rejected requests by some for bail.

The charges against a total of 47 opposition figures represent the most sweeping use yet of Hong Kong’s new security law, which punishes what it broadly defines as secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces with up to life in prison.

“We condemn Hong Kong authorities’ detention of democratic activists for exercising their rights and freedoms and call for their immediate release,” Cassayre said.

Reporting by Stephanie Nebehay and Emma Farge; Editing by Giles Elgood https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-us-rights/u-s-condemns-china-at-un-rights-forum-for-abuse- of-uighurs-tibetans-idUSKBN2B41HM

U.S. criticises China's Hong Kong move, set to raise Xinjiang genocide charge in talks

By Humeyra Pamuk, David Brunnstrom 4 MIN READ

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States on Thursday condemned Chinese moves to change Hong Kong’s electoral system and forecast “difficult” talks with Beijing’s top diplomats next week, when the genocide Washington says China is committing against minority Muslims will be an issue the U.S. side plans to raise.

White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said Secretary of State Antony Blinken and national security adviser Jake Sullivan would not hold back when they meet with the Chinese diplomats in Alaska on March 18 and 19, “whether it’s on Taiwan, or ... efforts to push back democracy in Hong Kong, or on concerns we have about the economic relationship.”

“Addressing the genocide against Uighur Muslims is something that will be a topic of discussion with the Chinese directly next week,” she added.

In response, China’s foreign ministry spokesman, Zhao Lijian, urged the United States on Friday to stop interfering in China’s affairs, including Hong Kong.

“China hopes both sides can focus on cooperation and manage differences,” he said, adding that both sides should understand each others’ policy intention correctly.

China rejects U.S. charges that it has committed genocide against Uighur and other Muslims in its Xinjiang region and calls criticism of its behavior toward Hong Kong and self-ruled Taiwan unwarranted interference in its internal affairs.

China’s parliament on Thursday approved a draft decision to change Hong Kong’s electoral system, further reducing democratic representation in the city’s institutions and introducing a mechanism to vet politicians’ loyalty to Beijing.

State Department spokesman Ned Price called the changes “a direct attack on Hong Kong’s autonomy, its freedoms and democratic processes.”

“There will be some difficult conversations I would expect,” he said, referring to the talks Blinken and Sullivan plan to hold in Anchorage with China’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, and State Councillor Wang Yi, the first high-level in-person contacts between the two sparring countries under the Biden administration. {nL1N2L825Q]

Price said Washington would explore areas for cooperation with China where it was in the U.S. interest, including climate change, but called on Beijing to change if it wanted to improve the frayed relationship.

“We’re not looking to engage in talks for the sake of talks,” he said. “We are looking for Beijing ... to demonstrate that seriousness of purpose, to demonstrate that it seeks to live up to its own oft-stated desire to change the tone of the bilateral relationship.”

President Joe Biden’s administration has committed to reviewing elements of U.S. policies toward China, as the world’s two largest economies navigate relations that sank to their lowest depths in decades during Donald Trump’s presidency.

Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held their first phone call as leaders last month and appeared at odds on most issues, even as Xi warned that confrontation would be a “disaster” for both nations.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said on Thursday that China and the United States had common interests and many areas for cooperation and that Beijing hoped ties could develop in a healthy way based on respecting each other’s core interests, win-win cooperation and non-interference in internal affairs.

Reporting by Humeyra Pamuk, Simon Lewis, Daphne Psaledakis and David Brunnstrom; Editing by Jonathan Oatis, Peter Cooney and Timothy Heritage https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-hongkong/u-s-criticises-chinas-hong-kong-move-set-to- raise-xinjiang-genocide-charge-in-talks-idUSKBN2B32TC

China should brace for ‘difficult’ issues during Alaska meeting, US says

• ‘There is a long litany of disagreements,’ according to the US State Department, with topics likely to include Hong Kong, Taiwan and China’s treatment of Uygurs • The Biden administration also recognises areas of potential collaboration, including climate change

Mark Magnier in Washington Published: 7:40am, 12 Mar, 2021

The Chinese delegation should expect direct, unfettered talks when it meets with its US counterparts in Alaska next week, and Beijing is advised to do its part in addressing strained relations, the State Department said on Thursday.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed this week that he and the White House national security eign policy official, Yang Jiechi, and Chinese State Councillor Wang Yi on Thursday in Anchorage. It will be the first in-person meeting between the countriesadviser, Jake of the Sullivan, Biden wouldadministration. meet China’s most senior for

State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters on Thursday that the prosperi it would be a “difficult” conversation. “We’ll be frank, and explain how Beijing’s actions and behaviour challenge the security, ty, the valuesilateral of not engagement,only the United what States, we expect but also is forour Beijing partners to anddemonstrate allies,” he seriou said. sness, to demonstrate seriousness regarding its own oft-stated desire to change the tone of our bilateral “When it comes to this b relationship.”https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3125104/china-should-brace-difficult-issues- during-alaska-meeting-us

China warns U.S. to stay out of Hong Kong affairs ahead of Alaska meet

By Reuters Staff 1 MIN READ

BEIJING (Reuters) - China again warned the United States to stop interfering in its affairs, including Hong Kong, a foreign ministry spokesman said on Friday, ahead of talks between diplomats of both countries which Washington has said would be “difficult”.

China hopes the meeting can focus on cooperation, the spokesman, Zhao Lijian, said.

The two countries diplomats are set to meet in Alaska on Thursday.

Reporting by Cate Cadell; Editing by Yew Lun Tian and Clarence Fernandez Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-usa-diplomacy/china-warns-u-s-to-stay-out-of-hong-kong- affairs-ahead-of-alaska-meet-idUSKBN2B40SF

China: HK electoral system improvement a 'milestone' with solid legal basis Updated 15:42, 12-Mar-2021

Executive Deputy Director of the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office of the State Council Zhang Xiaoming on Friday highlighted the profound influence of the improvements in the electoral system of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), calling the move a "milestone" in implementing the principle of "One Country, Two Systems" and the Basic Law of the HKSAR.

Zhang made the remarks at a press conference held by China's State Council Information Office in Beijing. Deputy Director Deng Zhonghua of the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office of the State Council and Deputy Director Zhang Yong of the Legislative Affairs Commission of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC) also attended the briefing.

The NPC, China's top legislature, on Thursday adopted a decision on improving the electoral system of the HKSAR after the draft was passed by an overwhelming majority vote at the fourth session of the 13th NPC.

Based on the decision, the HKSAR's Election Committee will be expanded from the current 1,200 members to 1,500, divided into five sectors. This will broaden the scope of political participation of Hong Kong compatriots and better integrate national interests with the overall interests of the Hong Kong society.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-03-12/SCIO-briefs-media-on-NPC-decision-to-improve-HK-electoral- system-Yz1DYkhDsA/index.html

'Colonial powers should reflect on history before criticizing developing nations' Updated 03:25, 13-Mar-2021

Developed nations should examine human rights issues within their own borders and consider their historical roles in injustice before pointing the figure at less wealthy countries, according to a statement delivered on behalf of a group of 20 countries at the United Nations Human Rights Council.

Without naming its targets, the statement criticized powers that focused on taking unilateral action against other countries rather than putting their efforts into helping tackle issues such as global poverty or the worldwide impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Its signatories included China, Russia, Venezuela and Cuba.

Delivering the statement, China's ambassador to the UN in Geneva, Chen Xu urged countries to:

* Tackle racial discrimination, police brutality, mistreatment of refugees and inequality within their own borders

* Take measures against COVID-19 including ensuring the equitable distribution of vaccines

* Help tackle hunger and poverty around the world

* Stop killing innocent civilians in overseas military operations

* Reflect on their historical role of causing misery and suffering through colonialization and invasion.

https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2021-03-12/-Colonial-powers-should-reflect-on-history-before- criticizing-others--YzNThj3iYU/index.html

China-US relations: Premier Li Keqiang hopes both sides can find ‘common ground’ ahead of Alaska talks even if they ‘can’t work everything out any time soon’

• Li says he hopes the two sides can work to build trust after it was confirmed that senior officials will meet next week in Anchorage • But US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has downplayed the prospect of restarting the dialogue between the two without concrete action from Beijing

Catherine Wong and Rachel Zhang in Shanghai Published: 11:00pm, 11 Mar, 2021 Ahead of next top-level meeting in Alaska, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang has said Beijing hopes to resume dialogue with Washin week’s gton even if the two countries “can’t work Lieverything said he hoped out any the time two soon”. sides would find common ground to contain tensions a more conciliatory tone than US Secretary of State Antony Blinken description of the meeting as a strategic dialogue. – , who has rejected Beijing’s Asked about the state of relations with the US at his annual press conference at the close of the annual parliamentary session on Thursday, Li said there were many areas where the

two countries could work with each other, and called for the two countries to “focus on the commonWe hope ground” to see dialogue and try tobetween overcome the twotheir countries differences. in multiple areas and at various levels.

“boost trust and expel misgivings. It will also help us better manage and mitigate our Even if we can’t work everything out any time soon. Such an exchange of views will help differences,” he said.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3125068/china-us-relations-premier-li-keqiang- hopes-both-sides-can

China urges Australia to close offshore detention centres

By Reuters Staff 3 MIN READ

GENEVA (Reuters) - China on Friday said it was “deeply concerned” by what it described as the Australian government’s operation of offshore detention centres, and it called for the sites to be closed immediately.

Ties between the two countries soured in 2018 when Australia became the first nation to publicly ban China’s Huawei from its 5G network and worsened when Australia last year called for an inquiry into the origins of the novel coronavirus.

In a statement to the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva, China alleged that the detention centres “fall short of adequate medical conditions where a large number of immigrants, refugees and asylum seekers have been detained over a long period of time or even indefinitely, and their human rights have been violated.”

It did not specify any locations, describing them as “third countries”. Asylum seekers intercepted at sea en route to Australia are sent for “processing” to Papua New Guinea or to the South Pacific island of Nauru.

Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade did not immediately respond to a request for comment outside normal working hours.

China itself has long faced accusations that it operates detention centres, with UN experts and rights groups estimating it has detained more than a million people in its Xinjiang region, mostly Uighurs and other Muslim minorities, in a vast system of camps.

China has described the camps as vocational centres designed to combat extremism.

“We urge Australia to immediately close down all offshore detention centers and take concrete steps to protect the rights of immigrants, refugees and asylum seekers, especially children,” China said in its statement, which it submitted on behalf of a group of unnamed countries.

It also called on Australia to carry out “comprehensive and fair investigations” into reported cases of “serious war crimes” committed by Australian troops overseas.

An Australian inquiry published in November said Australian special forces were suspected of killing 39 unarmed prisoners and civilians in Afghanistan between 2005 and 2016, drawing criticism from China’s foreign ministry.

Reporting by Stephanie Nebehay in Geneva; additional reporting by Cate Cadell in Beijing; writing by Tom Daly; Editing by Hugh Lawson https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-australia-un-rights/china-urges-australia-to-close-offshore- detention-centres-idUSKBN2B4229

Middle East LNG Hedging in China’s Energy Diplomacy

Increased demand for energy will give China greater and greater dependency on – and sway over – the world’s LNG producers.

By Tristan Kenderdine March 12, 2021

https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/middle-east-lng-hedging-in-chinas-energy-diplomacy/

China ‘two sessions’ 2021: Beijing shifts country’s basic research and development, tech innovation into overdrive

• The move follows the approval of the country’s 14th five-year plan and Vision 2035 development strategy • China will raise tax deductions for research and development expenses of manufacturing firms up to 100 per cent

Coco Feng in Beijing and Jane Zhang Published: 9:00pm, 12 Mar, 2021 China will step up scientific research and development over the next five years and beyond, after the world-leading power amid a broad trade and tech rivalry with the United States. country’s top legislature approved on Thursday an ambitious national policy blueprint to become a Premier Li Keqiang vowed to pursue institutional reforms and introduce tax incentives to boost the

14th five-year plan and Vision 2035 development strategy was endorsedcountry’s basicby nearly research 3,000 and delegates development of the National(R&D) initiatives, Congresswhich lag (NPC). behind those in the US and other developed economies, after the country’s He made the commitment at the conclusion on ThursdayPeople’s of two sessions the NPC and the Chinese Political Consultative Conference in Beijing. This year, China will raise tax deductions for R&Dthe ex penses“ of manufacturing”, the annual firms gathering to 100 of per cent, up from 75 per centPeople’s covering all industries, he said.

https://www.scmp.com/tech/policy/article/3125256/china-two-sessions-2021-beijing-shifts-countrys- basic-research-and

The Polar Policies in China’s New Five-Year Plan

The inclusion of Arctic and Antarctic policies within the new FYP represents the emerging importance of the two poles to China. By Marc Lanteigne

March 12, 2021

https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/the-polar-policies-in-chinas-new-five-year-plan/

China prepares to reopen bridge connecting North Korea: Locals

Kyodo News Beijing, China / Fri, March 12, 2021 / 08:39 am A man walks on the Yalu River Broken Bridge, with the Sino-Korean Friendship Bridge behind, in the border city of Dandong, in China's northeast Liaoning province on February 23, 2019. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's train is expected to cross the Friendship Bridge on a journey across China before Kim's summit meeting with US President Donald Trump in Vietnam on February 27. (Agence France Presse/Greg Baker) 0 SHARES China has been preparing to reopen a bridge on the Yalu River connecting it with North Korea, locals said Thursday, raising speculation that traffic between the two countries may resume by the end of this year. Since early last year, North Korea has, in principle, cut off traffic to and from China and Russia, with concern lingering that the novel coronavirus, first detected in the Chinese city of Wuhan in late 2019, could intrude into the nation. The plunge in trade with China following the pandemic has fanned fears that North Korea's economy has languished further and its citizens have not received adequate daily necessities. North Korea depends on China for more than 90 percent of its trade. Pyongyang has claimed that there are no patients infected with the virus at home. Meanwhile, Ri Ryong Nam, who has been recently appointed as North Korea's new ambassador to China, entered the neighboring country by land in February, sources familiar with bilateral relations said. Ri is a former deputy premier well-versed in economic policy. He also has experience studying at Beijing Foreign Studies University, according to South Korea's Unification Ministry. The replacement comes as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has expressed eagerness to deepen ties with other socialist nations including China. The focus is on whether North Korea will become more dependent on China, as their relations with the United States have shown little sign of improvement soon since President Joe Biden took office in January. U.S.-North Korea negotiations on denuclearization and sanctions relief have been at a standstill, while Beijing and Washington are at loggerheads over several issues such as trade, state-of-the-art technology and alleged human rights abuses. MOST VIEWED MOST ENGAGING Large asteroid to pass by Earth on March 21: NASA [COMMENTARY] What Indonesia’s palm oil is losing in Swiss trade deal How to lose belly fat in seven days Blinken to hold talks with Wang Yi in Alaska next week US warship transits Taiwan Strait after China invasion warning After questioning Terawan's vaccine, drug regulator faces political pressure Denmark, Norway, Iceland suspend use of AstraZeneca vaccine Malaysia ordinance to punish fake news takes effect Myanmar’s ousted lawmakers tell ASEAN to pick a side Scientific rigor key to local vaccine development: Jokowi FOLLOW OUR SOCIAL MEDIA The Jakarta Post https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2021/03/11/china-prepares-to-reopen-bridge-connecting- north-korea-locals.html

UN agencies incorrectly designate Taiwan as part of China

By Eric Chang, Taiwan News, Contributing Writer

2021/03/12 13:38

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A map released by U.N. Women and the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU) on women in politics incorrectly designates Taiwan as a part of China.

The Women in Politics map is supposed to show the participation rate of women in government and parliamentary positions around the world as of Jan. 1, 2021. Taiwan, however, is colored red, the same as China, in addition to not being labeled.

The U.N. map ranks China 86th in terms of women in parliament, with 742 seats (24.9 percent) held by women out of a total of 2,975 seats. This means that Taiwan’s 113 parliamentary seats — 47 of which are held by women — were not even included in the U.N.’s data.

The Taipei Economic and Cultural Office (TECO) in New York said in a Facebook post that the map excluded Taiwan and disregarded the country’s “hard-won” progress in terms of gender equality. “We have a democratically elected female head of state 蔡英文 Tsai Ing-wen and 42% of our lawmakers are women,” TECO said. It added, “’For Democracy. For Everyone.’ shouldn’t just be a slogan,” in reference to the IPU’s tagline.

TECO New York Director James Lee (李光章) told CNA that what Taiwan has achieved in terms of gender equality is self-evident. He added that it is well-known that the country elected a woman as president, and it is also an undeniable fact that Taiwan is not part of China.

Taiwan’s New York office has lodged an official complaint with the U.N over its flawed map and also appealed to U.N. Women to separate Taiwan from China on the graphic. Taiwan is not a member of the U.N. due to Chinese pressure on the international organization.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4148930

China's Xi lays groundwork for third term, amid mixed messages for Japan

BY TOMOYUKI TACHIKAWA KYODO Mar 12, 2021

BEIJING – China wrapped up this year’s annual session of the country’s parliament after setting the scene for a controversial third term for President Xi Jinping, and with its neighbor Japan increasingly on guard against the Asian power’s ambition. In a bid to cement the authority of the Communist Party, the National People’s Congress on Thursday also adopted a resolution to alter Hong Kong’s electoral system so that the mainland can exclude pro-democracy activists from the political arena in the territory.

The Chinese government also pledged measures to make China the world’s biggest economy by 2035, surpassing the United States, in a move that highlights Xi’s eagerness to remain in power at least for the next decade.

In February, Xi’s leadership enforced a law allowing China’s coast guard to use weapons in waters it claims, sparking fears in Tokyo over Beijing’s attempts to bring the Senkaku Islands, controlled by Japan but disputed by China, into its fold.

“Xi has successfully contained the novel coronavirus, and then he has been trying to expel nuisances in Hong Kong and enhance citizens’ loyalty to him by vowing to boost the Chinese economy,” a diplomatic source in Beijing said.

“Unfortunately, Xi has been steadily preparing to become China’s emperor for life,” he added.

“At the same time, Xi has been keen to bolster China’s influence on its neighbors including Japan,” the source said. “And for that purpose, he may take every step he can. Japan should become much more vigilant against China.” In the early 2010s, Beijing and Tokyo were mired in a territorial row over the uninhabited islands, called Diaoyu in China. But, having effectively shelved the dispute over the past few years, bilateral ties have been improving.

With its relations with the United States deteriorating under former President Donald Trump, over issues such as trade, Hong Kong and Taiwan, China has been extending an olive branch to Japan — one of Washington’s closest allies worldwide.

Earlier this month, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi stressed at a news conference that the nation’s new coast guard law does “not target any specific country,” while expressing hope for further improvement in ties with Japan. Asked about how the two Asian nations can cooperate, Wang said China and Japan have “every reason to support each other” for the success of the Tokyo Olympics, which has been put off by one year to July, as well as the Beijing Winter Games in February 2022.

“Wang talked about Sino-Japanese relations in a very careful manner. It seems that China has put emphasis on Japan as its tensions with the United States have shown little sign of easing soon,” a source familiar with Beijing’s thinking said.

“For peace and stability in the region, Japan should maintain the current relations with China, while gauging how U.S. policy toward Beijing will change” under the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden, who took office in January, he said.

At home, however, the Chinese Communist Party has taken actions to strengthen Xi’s power, erode democracy and freedoms in Hong Kong and accelerate the country’s military rise in nearby waters.

In 2018, China removed from its Constitution a two-term limit for the president and vice president. The move enables Xi, who became the head of the party in 2012, to hold on to power for life.

All eyes are on whether Xi will be re-elected as leader of the Communist Party at its twice-a-decade congress in autumn next year.

In late June, the mainland enacted a national security law for Hong Kong that cracked down on what it views as secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces, aiming to quell protests against the pro-Beijing government in the territory.

China also plans to increase its defense spending in 2021 by 6.8% from last year to 1.36 trillion yuan (¥22.6 trillion), with Xi having promised to give the nation’s military forces “world-class” status by the middle of the 21st century. Since the coast guard law took effect, Chinese official vessels have continued to enter Japan’s territorial waters around the Senkakus frequently, with Beijing insisting that the islets are the country’s “inherent territory.” In response, Japanese policymakers have recently argued that it is possible for the nation’s coast guard to fire on foreign official vessels under laws by considering their forcible landing on the islands to be violent crimes.

“There is speculation that China’s economy will become the world’s largest as early as in 2028, so it is still necessary for Tokyo to get along with Beijing in economic terms,” a Japanese government source said.

“But we should also warn against China’s military moves. We have to seriously map out our diplomatic strategy toward China, while closely watching how the country will change under long-term rule by Xi,” he said. The source added that Xi’s first state visit to Japan since he became president in 2013, which has been delayed due to the pandemic, may be canceled amid a backlash from conservative lawmakers in the ruling party headed by Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga.

“Under the present circumstances, it is impossible for Suga’s government to invite Xi to visit Japan,” the source said. “But if Japan proposes the cancellation of Xi’s visit, that could shake relations between Japan and China.”

At the news conference on the sidelines of the National People’s Congress, Foreign Minister Wang did not mention whether Beijing and Tokyo had been making arrangements for Xi’s trip to Japan.

This year’s session of China’s parliament was held for seven days through Thursday.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/03/12/national/xi-third-term-japan-relations/

Stability Beijing's focus as Xi seeks re-election: analysts

03/12/2021 07:48 PM Taipei, March 12 (CNA) China's government is likely to focus its efforts in 2021 on pursuing stability internally and externally, as Chinese leader Xi Jinping (習近平) seeks a third term as chief of the Chinese Communist Party next year, analysts in Taiwan said Friday.

"For Xi, 2021 is a crucial year to prepare for next year's Chinese Communist Party (CCP) National Party Congress, which will decide his political fate," said Yen Chien-fa (顏建發), a professor at Chien Hsin University of Science and Technology, at a forum discussing China's national policy after the recently concluded "Two Sessions."

The Two Sessions refer to the meetings of China's two major political bodies, the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) and the National People's Congress (NPC), which confirm the direction of government policies.

This year's Two Sessions were held March 4-11.

"Due to that consideration, stability is everything for Xi. He will not allow his country to be plunged into turmoil," Yen said.

Observers expect Xi to vie for a third term as the CCP's secretary-general at next year's National Party Congress, a position that is crucial for his re-election as China's president the following year.

It would represent a major departure from the recent precedent of China's leader serving two five-year terms as CCP chief and then stepping down, and reinforce concerns that Xi has no interest in relinquishing power any time soon.

Beijing's move to set its economic growth target above 6 percent, "reform" Hong Kong's electoral system, and increase its defense budget, all announced during the "Two Sessions," showed Xi's will to maintain stability internally, Yen said. At the same time, Beijing's attempt to ease tensions with neighboring countries, such as India, Japan and South Korea, can be interpreted as Xi's bid to work on stability externally, he added. The principle of maintaining stability likewise applies to the Taiwan Strait and nearby areas, such as the contested South China Sea and waters around the Japanese-controlled Diaoyutai Islands, Yen said.

"China's deployment of warplanes and battleships in these areas will remain psychological warfare," he said. "A hot war is not likely because it would be too costly for China. Xi's 'Chinese Dream' would be ruined."

Still, Taiwan has to continue to work with the United States and other like-minded countries to deter China's aggression in the region, Yen said.

Lin Ying-yu (林穎佑), an assistant professor at National Chung Cheng University, believed Beijing will keep its carrot-and-stick approach in dealing with Taiwan, by providing perks for Taiwanese people while intensifying military pressure on Taiwan's government.

He also said Beijing is likely to continue its disinformation campaign against Taiwan to create division in Taiwanese society, hoping to take Taiwan without firing a single bullet after breaking down the Taiwanese people's will to defend their homes.

(By Emerson Lim and Wu Po-wei) Enditem/ls

https://focustaiwan.tw/cross-strait/202103120016

Japan PM Suga to meet Biden in US in April Meeting likely to be first in-person summit with foreign leader for president

Nikkei staff writersMarch 12, 2021 10:44 JSTUpdated on March 12, 2021 11:26 JST

TOKYO -- Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga will visit the U.S. in the first half of April at the earliest for a meeting with President Joe Biden, which is likely to be his first get-together with a foreign leader since he took office in January, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato told a news conference on Friday.

To continue reading, subscribe today

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Japan-PM-Suga-to-meet-Biden-in-US-in-April

Olympics: No Chinese vaccines to be taken by Team Japan, minister says

By Chris Gallagher 2 MIN READ

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese athletes at the Summer Olympics will not be eligible for coronavirus vaccinations offered by China since Japan has not approved the vaccines, Olympics Minister Tamayo Marukawa said on Friday.

The Chinese Olympic Committee offered vaccine doses for participants of this year’s Tokyo Olympics and the Beijing 2022 Winter Games, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) said on Thursday.

IOC President Thomas Bach’s announcement during an online session took organisers of the Tokyo Games, such as Chief Executive Toshiro Muto, by surprise. Muto declined comment on the offer at a Thursday briefing after the session.

On Friday, Marukawa said there was no change in Tokyo organisers’ plans for a safe Games, regardless of whether participants had been vaccinated.

“I think that will be a decision for countries where (Chinese vaccines) have been approved,” Marukawa told a regular news conference when asked if athletes should receive the vaccinations offered by China.

“I am not aware if any Chinese companies have applied for approval of Chinese vaccines in our country,” she said, indicating that Japanese athletes would not be eligible.

“We are taking comprehensive anti-infection measures including activity management and testing so that people can feel secure about participating in the Tokyo Games, even without a vaccination.

“There is no change that we are proceeding on the assumption of people not getting vaccinations.”

The Tokyo Olympics are set to run from July 23 to Aug. 8, and the Paralympics from Aug. 24 to Sept. 5, after being postponed for a year because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Reporting by Chris Gallagher; Editing by Clarence Fernandez/Peter Rutherford https://www.reuters.com/article/us-olympics-2020-vaccine/olympics-no-chinese-vaccines-to-be-taken- by-team-japan-minister-says-idUSKBN2B40FN

Japan fears satellite it made for Myanmar might be used for 'military purposes'

• Human rights activists and some officials in Japan worry that $15 million satellite could be used for military purposes by the junta that seized power in Myanmar on Feb. 1. Reuters, Tokyo UPDATED ON MAR 12, 2021 07:43 PM IST

Myanmar's first satellite is being held on board the International Space Station following the Myanmar coup, while Japan's space agency and a Japanese university decide what to do with it, two Japanese university officials said.

The $15 million satellite was built by Japan's Hokkaido University in a joint project with Myanmar's government-funded Myanmar Aerospace Engineering University (MAEU). It is the first of a set of two 50 kg microsatellites equipped with cameras designed to monitor agriculture and fisheries.

Human rights activists and some officials in Japan worry that those cameras could be used for military purposes by the junta that seized power in Myanmar on Feb. 1.

That has put the deployment on hold, as Hokkaido University holds discussions with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), the two Hokkaido University officials said.

"We won't get involved in anything that has to do with the military. The satellite was not designed for that," one of the officials, a manager of the project, told Reuters, asking not to be identified.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/japan-fears-satellite-it-made-for-myanmar-might-be- used-for-military-purposes-101615557132982.html

Myanmar's first satellite held by Japan on space station after coup

By Tim Kelly 3 MIN READ

TOKYO (Reuters) - Myanmar’s first satellite is being held on board the International Space Station following the Myanmar coup, while Japan’s space agency and a Japanese university decide what to do with it, two Japanese university officials said.

The $15 million satellite was built by Japan’s Hokkaido University in a joint project with Myanmar’s government-funded Myanmar Aerospace Engineering University (MAEU). It is the first of a set of two 50 kg microsatellites equipped with cameras designed to monitor agriculture and fisheries.

Human rights activists and some officials in Japan worry that those cameras could be used for military purposes by the junta that seized power in Myanmar on Feb. 1.

That has put the deployment on hold, as Hokkaido University holds discussions with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), the two Hokkaido University officials said.

“We won’t get involved in anything that has to do with the military. The satellite was not designed for that,” one of the officials, a manager of the project, told Reuters, asking not to be identified.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-satellite-japan-excl/exclusive-myanmars-first- satellite-held-by-japan-on-space-station-after-coup-idUSKBN2B41O1

Tokyo slams Beijing’s revamp of electoral system in Hong Kong, with Japanese firms wary of legislation changes

• While there are few direct options for pressure on Beijing, analysts say Japan could encourage companies to relocate their operations from mainland China • Japanese media has also criticised the new laws, with one editorial saying polls held under Tokyo’s WWII military dictatorship were more democratic than elections Beijing is imposing upon the city

Julian Ryall Published: 6:08pm, 12 Mar, 2021 Japan National Congress on Thursday to change the electoral system in Hong Kong, with Tokyo describi“cannotng new overlook” laws requiring the resolution all political passed candidates by China’s to be autonomy.People’s “patriots”as a major setback to the city’s framework, as provided for in the Hong Kong Basic Law and the 1984 Sino- “The decision this time will further undermine the confidence in the ‘one country, two systems’ British Joint Declaration,” TheJapan’s min foreign ministry said in a Friday statement. of opposition politicians and activists. It also called on Beijing to hold elections in Hong Kong that were open to candidatesistry said Japan’s concerns a werevariety growing of political due to the recent. arrest and prosecution of a number

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3125238/tokyo-slams-bei“representing opinions” jings-revamp-electoral- system-hong-kong-japanese

Twenty-one Hong Kong activists remain in custody after court rejects bail appeals

By Jessie Pang 3 MIN READ

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Twenty-one Hong Kong activists will remain in custody after a court on Friday rejected requests by some for bail and others withdrew their applications in a widely monitored case where they are charged with conspiracy to subvert the government.

FILE PHOTO: A guard stands behind cordons before a court hearing on the appeal against the bail release of 11 pro-democracy activists charged with national security violations, at the High Court in Hong Kong, China March 11, 2021. REUTERS/Lam Yik

The charges against a total of 47 opposition figures represent the most sweeping use yet of Hong Kong’s new security law, which punishes what it broadly defines as secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces with up to life in prison.

The case offers an insight into how the mainland-style justice drafted by Beijing into the security law clashes with the global financial hub’s common-law traditions, and is being closely watched by foreign diplomats and rights groups.

In contrast with past practice, the new security law puts the onus on defendants to prove they will not pose a security threat if released on bail.

Since the group of 47 were charged around two weeks ago, the court has heard a series of requests for bail. While most requests were rejected, the court approved some applications, prompting immediate appeals from prosecutors to overturn some of those approvals. Just five of the group are currently out on bail.

Of the 21 defendants in court on Friday, Judge Victor So rejected 11 applications while the rest were withdrawn by the defendants. The rejected defendants have the right to file for another review in eight days, although most indicated they did not intend to do so.

The 47 activists are accused of organising and participating in an unofficial, non-binding primary poll in July 2020 that authorities said was part of a “vicious plot” to “overthrow” the government.

The vote was aimed at selecting the strongest opposition candidates for a legislative council election that the government later postponed, citing the coronavirus.

The detentions have been fiercely criticised by governments in the West, including Britain and the United States.

Hong Kong’s Department of Justice has said no one should interfere with independent prosecutorial decisions.

Supporters of the new law say it has restored stability after months of pro-democracy protests in 2019. Hong Kong laws restrict media coverage of the content of bail hearings. The next hearing in the case is on May 31.

Writing by Marius Zaharia; Editing by Stephen Coates and Jane Wardell

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-security/twenty-one-hong-kong-activists-remain-in- custody-after-court-rejects-bail-appeals-idUSKBN2B4066

G7 expresses 'grave concerns' over electoral changes in Hong Kong

By Reuters Staff 3 MIN READ FILE PHOTO: Britain's Foreign Affairs Secretary Dominic Raab looks on as he walks outside Downing Street in London, Britain, February 24, 2021. REUTERS/John Sibley

LONDON (Reuters) - Foreign ministers in the G7 group of nations including the United States have expressed grave concerns at what they said was China’s decision to fundamentally erode democratic elements of the electoral system in Hong Kong.

The G7 released a statement that was tweeted by British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, saying the recent decision to change Hong Kong’s electoral system indicated that authorities in China were determined to eliminate dissenting voices and opinions in Hong Kong.

“We also call on China and the Hong Kong authorities to restore confidence in Hong Kong’s political institutions and end the unwarranted oppression of those who promote democratic values and the defence of rights and freedoms,” it said. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-security-g7/g7-expresses-grave-concerns-over-electoral- changes-in-hong-kong-idUSKBN2B42NB

Malaysia defends coronavirus fake news law amid outcry

By Joseph Sipalan 2 MIN READ

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Malaysia’s government on Friday defended a new law aimed at tackling rampant fake news related to COVID-19 and an ongoing state of emergency, as critics warned it could be used to silence dissent and curtail free speech.

The emergency ordinance, which took effect on Friday, will make it an offence to publish or reproduce any “wholly or partly false” content related to the pandemic or the emergency declaration, prescribing hefty fines and jail terms of up to six years.

Emergency laws do not need parliamentary approval.

Communications Minister Saifuddin Abdullah said the ordinance would help expedite enforcement, investigation and prosecution by authorities, who would otherwise be hampered by old laws that are ill equipped to deal with the rapid expansion of social media.

“Our interest is in fighting COVID-19 and we will do whatever it takes ... we take cognisance of the fact that we have to be fair, we have to be just in carrying out our duties,” Saifuddin told a news conference. But opposition lawmakers and civil society groups said the new law was too sweeping and could be used to instill fear among the public about criticising the government.

Earlier on Friday, the prime minister’s department on Twitter posted a government circular prohibiting civil servants from making negative public statements, or sharing or distributing any content deemed detrimental to government policies or its image. In January, parliament was suspended after King Al-Sultan Abdullah declared a state of emergency to curb the spread of COVID-19, a move that the opposition decried as an attempt by Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin to retain control amid a power struggle.

Malaysia has reported 320,939 COVID-19 infections as of Friday, with 1,203 deaths, the third highest caseload in the region behind Indonesia and the Philippines.

Reporting by Joseph Sipalan; Editing by Martin Petty

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-malaysia-politics/malaysia-defends-coronavirus-fake-news-law- amid-outcry-idUSKBN2B413T

The 'battle tactics' used in crackdowns on protests

By Joshua Cheetham BBC News

On a busy street in Yangon, police are escorting a man as gunfire crackles in the background.

The man appears to be in custody and is showing no resistance - then suddenly an officer shoots him from behind, kicking him as he lies on the ground.

The incident, captured on video, is one of dozens that have been reported since a military coup in Myanmar on 1 February brought protesters onto the streets.

Crackdowns against protests have already killed over 70 people, according to a UN estimate.

But the military, or Tatmadaw, insists that security forces have acted with restraint against "riotous protesters" who they accuse of attacking police.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-56373463

U.S. and allies vow to restore democracy in Myanmar as violence mounts

By Reuters Staff 5 MIN READ

(Reuters) - The leaders of the United States and allies India, Australia and Japan vowed on Friday to work together to restore democracy in Myanmar, where violence has escalated as coup leaders try to disrupt a sweeping movement of protests and civil disobedience.

Inside Myanmar, security forces pressed on with a crackdown on opposition to the army’s Feb. 1 takeover. In at least one case, they forced patients out of a hospital.

A day after 12 people were killed in one of the bloodiest days since the coup, former colonial power Britain warned its citizens to leave, saying “political tension and unrest are widespread since the military takeover and levels of violence are rising”. The coup in Myanmar, where the military has close ties to China, is a major early test for new U.S. President Joe Biden.

His administration flagged Friday’s virtual meeting with the Indian, Japanese and Australian leaders, the first official leaders’ summit of a group known as the Quad, as part of a push to demonstrate a renewed U.S. commitment to regional security.

“As long-standing supporters of Myanmar and its people, we emphasise the urgent need to restore democracy and the priority of strengthening democratic resilience,” the four leaders said in a statement released by the White House. More than 70 protesters have now been killed in the Southeast Asian nation since the military seized power, the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP) advocacy group said. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics/more-protests-held-in-myanmar-as-south-korea- suspends-defence-exchanges-idUSKBN2B409L Britain urges citizens to leave Myanmar over rising violence

Britain has condemned the violence in Myanmar and has called for the restoration of democracy.

Reuters, London

PUBLISHED ON MAR 12, 2021 03:20 PM IST

Britain urged its citizens on Friday to leave Myanmar or, if they are unable to exit the country, to stay at home, saying violence was rising after the army ousted Aung San Suu Kyi's government in a Feb. 1 coup.

The move comes a day after a rights group said security forces killed 12 protesters and as the lawyer of deposed leader Suu Kyi ridiculed new bribery allegations against her.

"The Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) advises British Nationals to leave the country by commercial means, unless there is an urgent need to stay," the foreign ministry said in a statement.

"Political tension and unrest are widespread since the military takeover and levels of violence are rising."

Britain has condemned the violence in Myanmar and has called for the restoration of democracy, signalling earlier this week that it was exploring additional sanctions on the country.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/britain-urges-citizens-to-leave-myanmar-over-rising- violence-101615542061450.html

Remembering the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami Tragedy a Decade Later

Survivor Ueno Shigeki reflects on the unimaginable 2011 earthquake and tsunami, which decimated his coastal hometown of Kesennuma.

By Thisanka Siripala March 12, 2021 https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/remembering-the-great-east-japan-earthquake-and-tsunami- tragedy-a-decade-later/

A new dawn: Quad leaders vow to define the Indo-Pacific century Working group to help develop tech standards; in-person summit planned this year

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks at a virtual meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, from the State Dining Room of the White House on March 12. © AP MASAYA KATO, ALEX FANG and WAJAHAT KHAN, Nikkei staff writersMarch 13, 2021 01:10 JSTUpdated on March 13, 2021 04:25 JST

TOKYO/NEW YORK/WASHINGTON -- The leaders of the U.S., Japan, India and Australia met virtually Friday in the first-ever summit for the Indo-Pacific security grouping known as the Quad.

To https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indo-Pacific/A-new-dawn-Quad-leaders-vow-to- define-the-Indo-Pacific-century

Quad going to be vital arena for cooperation in Indo-Pacific, says Joe Biden

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga are other leaders who are attending the virtual summit, which is the first conclave of the top leaders of the Quadrilateral alliance.

PTI, Washington

PUBLISHED ON MAR 12, 2021 07:50 PM IST

President Joe Biden said on Friday that the Quad – involving the US, India, Australia and Japan - is going to be a vital arena for cooperation in Indo-Pacific as he opened the first Quad Leaders’ Summit which is being attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other leaders of the bloc.

In his opening remarks, Biden also described Quad as a new mechanism to enhance cooperation and raise mutual ambition as they address accelerating climate change.

"We know our commitments...Our region is governed by international law, committed to all the universal values and free from coercion but I am optimistic about our prospect,” he said, in an apparent reference to China which is flexing its muscles in the region.

"The Quad is going to be a vital arena of cooperation in the Indo Pacific and I look forward to working closely with all of you in the coming years," Biden told Quad leaders as requested Prime Minister Modi to speak.

"It's great to see you," Biden told Modi.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga are other leaders who are attending the virtual summit, which is the first conclave of the top leaders of the Quadrilateral alliance.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/quad-going-to-be-vital-arena-for-cooperation-in-indo- pacific-says-joe-biden-101615558753592.html

‘Quad’ summit backs ‘democratic’ Indo-Pacific region, cites Chinese ‘aggression’

• US President Joe Biden meets by teleconference with Japanese PM Yoshihide Suga, Indian PM Narendra Modi and Australian PM Scott Morrison • Among other issues discussed, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan says, are China’s ‘coercion of Australia’ and ‘aggression on the border with India’

Robert Delaney and Jacob Fromer in Washington Published: 12:20am, 13 Mar, 2021

Joe Biden and the leaders of three major Asia- cooperate on development of 5G and other advancedPacific countries, technologies, an alliance in their knownfirst summit as the meeting “Quad”, on Friday.discussed “aggression” and “coercion” against members of the group by China, while agreeing to

Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, meeting by means of large flat- eir harassment around the Senkaku Islands, their aggression on the border with screen televisions, discussed China’s “coercion of Australia, th India”, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said in a briefing in Washington after the talks. and for freedom of navigation and overflight as key objectives while avoiding any direct reference to China. A statement issued by the group called for the region to be “anchored by democratic values” – manufacture and distribute Covid-19 vaccines, a move –that comes as Washington faces criticism for hoardingThey also the announced protective a “Quad jabs. Vaccine Partnership”, which will provide financing and other assistance to

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3125290/us-president-joe-biden-opens-quad- summit-calling-alliance

‘Quad’ summit backs ‘democratic’ Indo-Pacific region, cites Chinese ‘aggression’

• US President Joe Biden meets by teleconference with Japanese PM Yoshihide Suga, Indian PM Narendra Modi and Australian PM Scott Morrison • Among other issues discussed, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan says, are China’s ‘coercion of Australia’ and ‘aggression on the border with India’

Robert Delaney and Jacob Fromer in Washington Published: 12:20am, 13 Mar, 2021 US President Joe Biden and the leaders of three major Asia-Pacific countries, an alliance known as the cooperate on development of 5G and other advanced technologies, in their first summit meeting on Friday.“Quad”, discussed “aggression” and “coercion” against members of the group by China, while agreeing to

Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, meeting by means of large flat- eir harassment around the Senkaku Islands, their aggression on the border with screen televisions, discussed China’s “coercion of Australia, th India”, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said in a briefing in Washington after the talks. and for freedom of navigation and overflight as key objectives while avoiding any direct reference to China. A statement issued by the group called for the region to be “anchored by democratic values” – manufacture and distribute Covid-19 vaccines, a move –that comes as Washington faces criticism for hoardingThey also the announced protective a “Quad jabs. Vaccine Partnership”, which will provide financing and other assistance to

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3125290/us-president-joe-biden-opens-quad- summit-calling-alliance

India-China border row, Covid-19 vaccine diplomacy fuelling New Delhi’s new embrace of the Quad, say analysts

• China’s rising assertiveness, Covid-19 and the Myanmar coup are expected to be on the agenda at Friday’s Quad meeting • Analysts say while the border clash and vaccine diplomacy have shifted New Delhi’s views on the Quad

Pranay Sharma Published: 12:30pm, 12 Mar, 2021 -Pacific, coronavirus vaccines and the Myanmar coup are expected to be on the agenda as Indian Prime Minister NarendraChina’s growing Modi on influence Friday meetsin the hisAsia counterparts from Japan, Australia and the US in a teleconference of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or .

The Times of India news outlet reported“Quad” on Friday that India would manufacture the single dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine with financing from the US and Japan. Australia would be involved in shipping it to Southeast Asia and Pacific countries.

A senior US administration official had earlier told Reuters that the meeting would see several financing agreements between the Quad parties to support an increase in manufacturing capacity for coronavirus vaccines in India, with some of the doses going to Southeast Asian countries.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3125136/india-china-border-row-covid-19-vaccine- diplomacy-fuelling-new

Quad leaders ready for landmark summit but what can they really do about China?

• The meeting of the heads of state of the US, Japan, India and Australia will discuss maritime interests, climate and vaccines – but ‘no single competitor’ • Experts are weighing in on how much the Quad can do and whether, in a crisis, they would really step in to help each other

Kinling Lo Published: 10:00pm, 12 Mar, 2021

The first heads of state meeting of the “Quad” on Friday is expected to mark the start of a new power USdynamic President that would counter China’s influence in the region, but analysts ask how far can it go. Joe Biden and his counterparts from Japan, India and Australia will meet virtually on Friday to discuss regional ranging from maritime issues and climate challenges to coronavirus vaccination. Bidenand global has put issues of “shared interest” – the Indo-Pacific and increasingly assertive in the spotlight of his interim strategic guidance released in early March, while US national security “an China” - Pacific policy. adviser Jake Sullivan has said the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue will play a key role in America’s Indo

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3125240/quad-leaders-ready-landmark-summit- what-can-they-really-do

Cooperation between countries should not target third party: China on Quad meet

US President Joe Biden, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Australian Prime Minister Morrison and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga will attend the virtual summit, which is the first conclave of the top leaders of the Quadrilateral alliance, on Friday. PTI PUBLISHED ON MAR 12, 2021 04:06 PM IST

Ahead of the Quad summit on Friday, China said exchanges and cooperation between countries should contribute to mutual understanding rather than “targeting” a third party and refrain from “pursuing exclusive blocs”.

US President Joe Biden, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Australian Prime Minister Morrison and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga will attend the virtual summit, which is the first conclave of the top leaders of the Quadrilateral alliance, on Friday.

Known as the “Quadrilateral Security Dialogue,” representatives for the four-member nations have met periodically since its establishment in 2007.

Asked for China’s reaction to the Quad conclave, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told a media briefing here that “exchanges and cooperation between nations should contribute to the mutual understanding and trust among nations, rather than targeting a third party or damaging the interest of a third party.”

“We hope that relevant countries uphold the principles of openness, inclusiveness and win-win results and refrain from pursuing exclusive blocs and do things that are conducive to regional peace, stability and prosperity,” he said.

The meeting to be held virtually is expected to last about 90 minutes, during which all the four leaders would also lay out their vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific, amidst China flexing its muscles in the strategically-vital region.

China is engaged in hotly contested territorial disputes in the South and East China Seas. Beijing has also made substantial progress in militarising its man-made islands in the past few years.

Beijing claims sovereignty over all of the South China Sea. But Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei and Taiwan have counterclaims. In the East China Sea, China has territorial disputes with Japan.

The evolving situation in the Indo-Pacific region in the wake of China's increasing military muscle-flexing has become a major talking point among leading global powers. The US has been favouring making Quad a security architecture to check China's growing assertiveness. https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/cooperation-between-countries-should-not-target-third-party-china- on-quad-meet-101615544910343.html White House says Biden discussed China challenges with leaders from India, Japan, Australia

By Reuters Staff

U.S. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, not pictured, participate beside staff and cabinet members in a virtual meeting with Asia-Pacific nation leaders at the White House in Washington, U.S., March 12, 2021. REUTERS/Tom Brenner

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden discussed challenges posed by China with leaders from India, Japan and Australia in a meeting on Friday, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said.

Sullivan told reporters at a briefing that the virtual meeting between the Quad countries, a group central to Biden’s efforts to counter China’s growing military and economic power in the Indo- Pacific, did not focus on China, but touched on freedom of navigation in the East and South China Seas. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-asia-diplomacy/white-house-says-biden-discussed-china- challenges-with-leaders-from-india-japan-australia-idUSKBN2B42C4

India poised to block Chinese tech giant Huawei from its mobile carriers in June

• Two of India’s three big telecoms carriers, Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea, currently use Huawei gear • A US campaign to curb Huawei has triggered bans or limits on the use of its equipment around the world

Huawei equipment and network maintenance contracts are typically cheaper than European competitors such as Ericsson and Nokia. Photo: AP India is likely to block its mobile carriers from using telecom equipment made by

China’s Huawei , two government officials said, under procurement rules due to come into force in June.

New Delhi is wary about awarding new technology business to Chinese firms both because of security fears and a desire to get Indian manufacturers to produce more telecoms equipment.

A US campaign to curb Huawei has triggered bans or limits on the use of its equipment around the world but the situation in India has been amplified by strained relations between New Delhi and Beijing over their shared border.

India’s telecoms department on Wednesday said that after June 15 carriers can only buy certain types of equipment from government-approved “trusted sources” and said New Delhi could also create a “no procurement” blacklist. Huawei is likely to feature on this embargoed list, according to the two officials.

“We cannot prioritise economic gains if an investment poses national security risk,” one of the officials said.

The telecoms department, which did not comment on Thursday about Huawei, is yet to provide further details on the plans for trusted sources or a procurement blacklist.

However, a third official, who also declined to be named, said ZTE, another Chinese firm which has a smaller presence in India, could also be excluded. Every Saturday SCMP Global Impact Newsletter By submitting, you consent to receiving marketing emails from SCMP. If you don't want these, tick here By registering, you agree to our T&C and Privacy Policy

Huawei and ZTE are under scrutiny for allegedly installing “back door” vulnerabilities to spy for the Chinese government.

Both have denied the allegations and Huawei has previously said it was ready to enter into a “no back door” deal with India to allay security concerns. Huawei and ZTE did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Two of India’s three big telecoms carriers, Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea, use Huawei gear. Any restriction on Huawei gear is likely to push up costs, industry analysts said.

The Chinese firm’s equipment and network maintenance contracts are typically cheaper than European competitors such as Ericsson and Nokia and there is limited availability of such gear in India.

India has begun to fast track approvals of some of the more than 150 Chinese investment proposals worth over US$2 billion it had put on hold after a June stand-off between the two neighbours on the disputed Himalayan border.

“We have started giving some approvals to investment proposals even from China, but we will not give any approvals in sectors like telecom infrastructure and financials,” a senior government official said. https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/south-asia/article/3125165/india-poised-block- chinese-tech-giant-huawei-its-mobile

China, India vow to stabilize and control border situation to avoid relapsing

China and India Friday agreed to stabilize and control situation on the ground of their border areas to avoid relapsing.

Hong Liang, director-general of the Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs, Chinese Foreign Ministry, and Naveen Srivastava, joint secretary of the East Asia Division, Indian Ministry of External Affairs, co-chaired the 21st Meeting of Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs on Friday.

Director-General of the Department of Boundary and Ocean Affairs of Chinese Foreign Ministry Hong Liang attends the 21st Meeting of Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs via video link in Beijing, China, March 12, 2021. /Chinese Foreign Ministry

Representatives from both countries' departments related to diplomacy, national defense, and migration also attended the online meeting.

The two sides spoke positively of frontline troops' disengagement in the Pangong Tso (Lake) area and also had candid and in-depth exchange of views on promoting the settlement of other regional issues along the Sino-Indian border.

They agreed to earnestly implement the five-point consensus reached by the foreign ministers of both countries in Moscow and follow the spirits of phone conversation between two foreign ministers on February 25.

China and India hold the 21st Meeting of Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs online, March 12, 2021. /Chinese Foreign Ministry

The two sides also agreed to continue dialogue and consultation via diplomatic and military channels, hold the next round of Senior Commanders Meeting at an early date, further de-escalate the border situation and jointly maintain the hard-won peace and tranquility in the border areas. https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-03-12/China-India-vow-to-stabilize-and-control- border-situation--YzFVbcuq5O/index.html

Sri Lanka bristles over Chinese doormats featuring its national flag

• The foreign ministry has complained to Beijing about the items on sale on Amazon for US$10 to US$24 on Amazon • Sri Lanka is sensitive to what it sees as any misuse of its national flag, as well as Buddhist symbols

Agence France-Presse

Published: 2:32am, 13 Mar, 2021 Why you can trust SCMP

2

A woman views an Amazon webpage displaying Chinese-made doormats with the Sri Lankan flag design for sale in Colombo on Friday. Photo: AFP

Sri Lanka has complained to Beijing over Chinese-made doormats featuring the island’s national lion flag being sold through online retail giant Amazon, officials said Friday.

Sri Lanka is highly sensitive to what it sees as any misuse of its national flag, as well as Buddhist symbols.

The Sri Lankan foreign ministry said it had taken up the issue with the Chinese embassy in Colombo, and also asked Colombo’s mission in Beijing to track down the manufacturer.

The ministry has also instructed the Sri Lankan embassy in Washington to “follow up on the matter” with Amazon.

Several Chinese vendors on Amazon were offering the non-slip doormat with Sri Lanka’s flag on it at prices ranging from US$10 to US$24.

“This is how the Chinese see Sri Lanka,” said one Facebook user. Another suggested the doormat was a forewarning of how future relations might play out in light of Sri Lanka’s huge debt to China: “May be it’s the sign [of how] they gonna treat us when we fail to pay their loans.”

“If we are unable to pay our debts, they will print our flag on toilet paper for sure,” wrote another on Facebook.

Pakistan’s belt and road offer to Sri Lanka stokes India’s China concerns 3 Mar 2021

In 2010, Sri Lanka prevented US rap star Akon from visiting the country over one of his music videos, which featured scantily clad women dancing in front of a Buddha statue.

In 2002, Sri Lanka’s Supreme Court ordered police and customs to seize CDs of Buddha Bar lounge music.

Two years ago, a Muslim woman was arrested for wearing a dress with prints of a ship’s steering wheel, which police mistook for Dharma Chakra, a Buddhist symbol.

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/south-asia/article/3125293/sri-lanka-bristles-over- chinese-doormats-featuring-its)

China's Drive for Global Power Turns Former Friends to Foes

By Natalie Liu March 11, 2021 09:03 PM

Soldiers of People's Liberation Army march in formation past Tiananmen Square during the military parade marking the 70th founding anniversary of People's Republic of China, on its National Day in Beijing, Oct. 1, 2019.

WASHINGTON - An American journalist who has covered China for two decades recently called for more people to become People's Republic of China hawks to confront the rise of Beijing as a global power. In Canada, some former friends of China have also changed their minds.

American journalist Michael Schuman has attracted attention with a recent article on news site Politico in which he described how he evolved from being enamored with everything about China to a much more cold-eyed outlook.

"Like many of us who write about China, I became mesmerized by the place upon first setting foot there, which for me was in 1996," he wrote.

However, “the more time passed, the more my mood has darkened,” he continued, explaining that “part of the change can be perhaps attributed to my living in a place where the individual has no recourse against the state.”

Schuman added that developments over the past three years made him “truly hawkish.”

FILE - In this Sept. 8, 2020 file photo, Chinese President Xi Jinping speaks during an event to honor some of those involved in China's fight against COVID-19 at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

Especially alarming, he said, is that Chinese President Xi Jinping “is trying to change the way we think about good government and democratic values” and increasingly is “upholding China’s autocratic system as every bit as legitimate — and even superior — to Western-style representative government.”

This “assault,” Schuman wrote, “presents a greater threat to the world’s democracies than any edge it might achieve in trade or technology.”

Schuman concluded his piece saying, "The only way to contend with today’s China is for more people to become China hawks. That’s a terrible solution. But the alternative is worse."

Margaret McCuaig-Johnston, who served nearly four decades in various official positions in Canadian provincial and federal governments, has come to the same conclusion.

“I was a friend of China for 40 years since my first visit in 1979 and helped them build their science and technology capacity. In fact, I was even vice president of the Canada- China Friendship Society from 2014 to 2016,” McCuaig-Johnston told VOA in written responses to questions.

“Canada has a very deep history in China going back to the 1920s, ’30s and ’40s with missionaries going throughout China. I knew one, Dr. Robert McClure, who left when the communists took over. He often spoke at my minister father’s church and would come to our house for lunch or dinner and told great stories.”

McCuaig-Johnston dedicated herself to advancing Canadian Chinese ties, especially in the area of science and technology, until she retired from government in 2012, serving at one point as executive vice president of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council. For the last seven years of her government career, she was a member of the Canada-China Joint Committee on Science and Technology.

“Over the years when I was in government, I worked often with people in China, helping that country to build their science and technology capacity,” she said. Over time, she began to have second thoughts. But it was the detention in China of two Canadians — Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor — that finally compelled her to change her position. The two were arrested in December 2018 in apparent retaliation for the arrest of a Huawei executive in Vancouver and remain in Chinese custody.

A protester holds a sign calling for China to release Canadian detainees Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig outside a court hearing for Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver, March 6, 2019.

“I was in Shanghai when (the two Michaels) were detained. I mentioned the detentions to a Chinese national with whom I was meeting the next day, and I was shocked to hear him say that China has a list of 100 Canadians they can pick up and detain at any time.

“When I got back to Canada, several others told me about the list. I expect there are lists for other countries, too,” said McCuaig-Johnston, who had been in Shanghai to speak at an international conference marking the 40th anniversary of China’s science and technology policy.

Reflecting on her decades of helping Beijing acquire science and technology, McCuaig- Johnston said, “For decades, I and many other Canadian officials and scientists helped China build their innovation capacity.”

She said initially, her Chinese counterparts “were very grateful … they took in all our help, advice and expertise.”

But things changed over time, she said.

“In the past few years, they have been more selective and want the best of our scientists in AI, biotech, quantum and advanced materials that reflect China’s strategic technologies,” McCuaig-Johnston said.

She said China’s intent “is now to surpass other countries, including the U.S., on science and technology and to put all that at the service of the military. They do not want to collaborate with us, as we did with them, unless it can help them become an innovation and military superpower.

“We should not be helping them do that,” she continued. “They have completely lost my trust and that of many other Canadians.” https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/voa-news-china/chinas-drive-global-power- turns-former-friends-foes

US, Chinese warships patrol same area near Taiwan Chinese and American destroyers prowled near southeast Taiwan simultaneously on Thursday

2115

By Keoni Everington, Taiwan News, Staff Writer

2021/03/12 12:45

USS John Finn (left), PLAN Jinan. (navsea.navy.mil and Wikimedia Commons photos)

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — A Chinese destroyer was spotted prowling near its American counterpart off the southeast coast of Taiwan Thursday (March 11).

The U.S. Navy's 7th Fleet on Wednesday (March 10) announced that the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS John Finn had carried out a "routine Taiwan Strait transit" that day "in accordance with international law." Thursday morning (March 11), Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND), confirmed that the U.S. destroyer had sailed through the Taiwan Strait from north to south.

After the USS John Finn passed through the strait, it was on Thursday detected heading east through the Bashi Channel, according to a Taiwanese military source who spoke to CNA. By noon that day, the warship was spotted 40 miles southeast of Orchid Island, and at the same time, People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Type 052C destroyer the Jinan appeared nearby.

The military source was uncertain as to why both U.S. and Chinese warships had appeared in the same area simultaneously. Although artillery drills were being held in the area by the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology, the source did not believe the foreign vessels' movements were related to the exercises.

The two ships reportedly continued to sail eastward that evening before disappearing from Taiwanese military surveillance sensors at 8 p.m. When asked by Taiwan News whether it could confirm the presence of the warships, the MND said it would not comment on the incident other than to say that it had used joint intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance to monitor movements at sea and in the air around the country and that the situation was normal.

(https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4148830

US destroyer sails Taiwan Strait in show of force

Transit follows a top US commander's warning Taiwan faces threat of Chinese invasion within the next six years

By AT CONTRIBUTORMARCH 12, 2021

USS John Finn. Photo: US Navy

A US warship has sailed through the Taiwan Strait, the American navy said after a top US commander warned of the threat to Taiwan of a Chinese invasion within the next six years.

The Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer USS John Finn conducted a routine transit Wednesday through the waterway separating the Chinese mainland and Taiwan, the US Seventh Fleet said. The third such voyage since President Joe Biden took office “demonstrates the US commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific,” it said in a statement.

US warships periodically conduct navigation exercises in the strait, often triggering angry responses from Beijing, which claims Taiwan and surrounding waters as its own territory.

The US and many other countries view the route as international waters open to all.

The latest transit came the same day Beijing accused Admiral Philip Davidson, the top US military officer in Asia-Pacific, of attempting to “hype up” China’s military threat.

At a Senate committee hearing a day earlier, Davidson warned the US was losing its military edge to China in the Pacific and gave a stark assessment that he believed an invasion of Taiwan by Beijing could be imminent.

“I worry that they (China) are accelerating their ambitions to supplant the United States and our leadership role in the rules-based international order … by 2050,” Davidson said.

“Taiwan is clearly one of their ambitions before that. And I think the threat is manifest during this decade, in fact, in the next six years,” he added.

Taiwan lives under constant threat of invasion by authoritarian China, which views the island as part of its territory waiting to be reunified, by force if necessary.

President Xi Jinping has become the most bellicose leader since Mao, describing the seizure of Taiwan as “inevitable.” In a statement, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) said it “resolutely” opposed the transit and criticized it as “flaunting”.

“The US ship’s passage sent the wrong message, intentionally meddling in and undermining the regional situation to endanger peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,” said Air Force Senior Colonel Zhang Chunhui, a spokesperson for the PLA’s Eastern Theatre Command.

Beijing has stepped up military, diplomatic and economic pressure on Taiwan since the 2016 election of President Tsai Ing-wen, who views the island as “already independent” and not part of “one China.”

Last year, Chinese military jets made a record 380 incursions into Taiwan’s defense zone, with some analysts warning that tensions between the two sides were at their highest since the mid-1990s. https://asiatimes.com/2021/03/us-destroyer-sails-taiwan-strait-in-show-of-force/

China's Coast Guard could start harassing Taiwan soon: analyst

03/12/2021 10:00 PM

Taipei, March 12 (CNA) China's Coast Guard vessels could soon join People's Liberation Army's warplanes in harassing Taiwan now that China's Coast Guard Law is in effect, an analyst in Taiwan warned Friday at a forum on the possible effects of the controversial law.

"Chances are the harassment by Chinese Coast Guard assets will be more serious than that of Chinese military planes," said Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), a senior analyst at the government-funded Institute for National Defense and Security Research, at the forum.

That's because "Coast Guard ships operate with more flexibility due to their supposed civilian nature" and can carry out "gray zone" tactics, which refer to moves by a state to achieve its objectives but that are less likely to cause a military conflict, Su warned.

Although Coast Guard units of every country may use weapons when enforcing laws, the problem with China's Coast Guard Law lies in the extent to which it allows the use of force, Su said.

The law, which took effect on Feb. 1, alarmed the region because it allows the country's white ships to use weapons against foreign vessels operating in all waters claimed by China under certain conditions.

Article 49 of the law even permits Chinese Coast Guard personnel to use weapons without the need to issue a warning when there is not enough time to do so or when issuing a warning may result in a more serious situation.

Incidents in which Chinese Coast Guard ships used excessive force while operating in waters claimed by China, such as waters near Vietnam and Malaysia, have been common in the past, according to Su. In terms of size, the largest Chinese Coast Guard ship has a displacement tonnage of around 12,000 tons, three times bigger than Taiwan's largest, he said.

According to the Foreign Ministry, more than 100 incidents of "harassment" by Chinese warplanes were recorded around Taiwan in 2020, involving 1,807 sorties.

Meanwhile, Alex Hsu (許峻賓), an associate researcher at the Taiwan Center for Security Studies, said the Chinese Coast Guard's paramilitary nature would create confusion for other countries when situations arise.

"Those countries may not know whether they should send Navy ships or Coast Guard ships to respond to disputes involving China's Coast Guard ships. This could lead to a miscalculation between the parties," he warned.

Although the region has yet to see the Chinese Coast Guard actually enforce the new law, it is a common practice of Beijing to make a law that exerts pressure on other countries and implement it later when the time is right, Akio Yaita, a Japanese journalist, said at the forum.

(https://focustaiwan.tw/cross-strait/202103120019

Taking a closer look at the health of the US Navy By: Everett Pyatt

Ensign Ryan Simpson looks through a pair of binoculars on the bridge wing as the guided-missile destroyer Russell conducts routine underway operations.(MC3 Wade Costin/U.S. Navy)

The U.S. Navy’s Board of Inspection and Survey, commonly called INSURV, was established in 1868 to provide an independent evaluation of the condition of ships and their ability to perform their missions. It has been in operation continuously since then. (It also performs acceptance trials for new ships.) Examinations are rigorous and based upon expected performance in roughly 20 categories. For many years, the results were public; but in 2008, several ships failed the examinations, and the reports became restricted. Two years ago, Congress directed that reports be unclassified. This report reflects the 2020 evaluation based on 40 ship evaluations. Ships are scheduled to be evaluated every three years.

Ratings are based on a figure of merit, which has been consistent over several years. Thus, it provides a reasonable measure of performance consistency. As shown in the following extract from the recent report, there has been a six-year declining trend. Attempts to reverse the trend have been futile, so the future challenge is to identify reasons, establish corrective plans and, most importantly, implement them. Source: U.S. Defense Department

This summary data does not indicate the source of low scores, but other tables in the report are clear and point to the need for more detailed analysis based on the data collected. This analysis should point to necessary, corrective actions. For example, surface ship anti-submarine warfare, weapons systems and Aegis weapons systems all show declines. Yet, these are the systems needed for effective combat. All these should be corrected. Of the 21 categories evaluated, 11 are less than acceptable. Furthermore, submarine combat systems have started to show a decline for the first time.

All these indicators suggest that the current support system does not provide the fleet effectiveness that was purchased through the development and acquisition process.

New emphasis is needed from top-level leadership to reverse the trends shown and prepare for support of an aging fleet. The new administration must seek to reverse the failures of the past six years.

The INSURV inspections are a ready source of data. However, in view of the well- known history of experience and primary focus by the INSURV team, the report itself can and should be improved by adding more narrative on types, classes and ages of the individual ships inspected in order to identify major issues of fleetwide importance:

1. Common problems of both class and age, focused on specific ship systems’ problems. 2. Evidence of performance conditions related to home porting location and three-year history of underway operations. 3. Maturity and operational readiness issues noting important and specific “new” ship systems, components, sensors and weaponry. 4. Embedded knowledge, training and relative competency of key ships’ force in organizational readiness of critical systems, sensors and weaponry. 5. Particularly for aging ships over 10 years with heavy seagoing histories, special rigor in inspection, and commentary on basic hull and main machinery conditions; and compliance with fleet and/or class requirements.

Based on the solutions identified, the responsible assistant secretary can focus and direct corrective actions.

It is also an important task in releasing the ship capabilities developed and purchased using tens of billions of dollars, and constituting America’s major naval power. While it may sound trivial, the Navy is built around its ships. The Biden administration faces several problems in maintaining and building the future Navy as it faces growing Chinese and Russian threats. These are:

• Materiel condition of the current fleet is declining, as shown in this sample of 40 ship inspections. • A plan for building an affordable Navy and implementing the law setting 355 ships as national policy have not been developed. • Some believe the future 500-ship Navy can consist of many unmanned ships. Mission performance has not been proven. • Major spare parts shortages limit aircraft and weapons system availability.

All of these need to be solved concurrently in a period of fiscal challenge brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Everett Pyatt is a former assistant secretary of the U.S. Navy for shipbuilding and logistics

(https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2021/03/12/taking-a-closer- look-at-the-health-of-the-us-navy/

American Special Ops Forces Are Everywhere

WITHIN THE SPAN OF A FEW DECADES, the United States has utterly transformed its military, or at least the military that is actively fighting. This has taken place with little fanfare and little public scrutiny. But without any conscious plan, I have seen some of the evolution firsthand. One of my early books, Black Hawk Down, was about a disastrous U.S. Special Ops mission in Somalia. Another, Guests of the Ayatollah, about the Iran hostage crisis, detailed an abortive but pivotal Special Ops rescue mission. U.S. Special Operators were involved in the successful hunt for the drug lord Pablo Escobar, the subject of Killing Pablo, and they conducted the raid that ended the career of Osama bin Laden, the subject of The Finish. By seeking out dramatic military missions, I have chronicled the movement of Special Ops from the wings to center stage.

Big ships, strategic bombers, nuclear submarines, flaring missiles, mass armies—these still represent the conventional imagery of American power, and they absorb about 98 percent of the Pentagon’s budget. Special Ops forces, in contrast, are astonishingly small. And yet they are now responsible for much of the military’s on-the-ground engagement in real or potential trouble spots around the world. Special Ops is lodged today under the Special Operations Command, or SOCOM, a “combatant command” that reports directly to the secretary of defense. It has acquired its central role despite initially stiff resistance from the conventional military branches, and without most of us even noticing.

It happened out of necessity. We now live in an open-ended world of “competition short of conflict,” to use a phrase from military doctrine. “There’s the continuum of absolute peace, which has never existed on the planet, up to toe-to-toe full-scale warfare,” General Raymond A. “Tony” Thomas, a former head of SOCOM, told me last year. “Then there’s that difficult in-between space.”

SOCOM, whose genealogy can be traced to a small hostage-rescue team in 1979, has grown to fully inhabit the in-between space. Made up of elite soldiers pulled from each of the main military branches—Navy SEALs, the Army’s Delta Force and Green Berets, Air Force Combat Controllers, Marine Raiders—it is active in more than 80 countries and has swelled to a force of 75,000, including civilian contractors. It conducts raids like the one in Syria in 2019 that killed the Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, and carries out drone strikes like the one in Iraq in 2020 that killed Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani. It works to locate hidden nuclear-missile sites in North Korea.

Using conventional forces is like wielding a sledgehammer. Special Ops forces are more like a Swiss Army knife. Over the years, the U.S. has found out just how versatile that knife can be; the flexibility and competence of Special Ops have proved invaluable. At the same time, the insularity and elitism of these units have bred a culture with elements that some of their own leaders, to their credit, have described as troubling, and that have, in certain instances, evidenced contempt for the traditional values of America’s armed forces. Much of SOCOM’s action takes place in secret. Most Americans are unaware that it has been active in a country until the announcement that its forces are being withdrawn. Or until something goes wrong—as in Niger in 2017, when four Special Ops soldiers were killed in an ambush.

Notably, its continued growth has been spurred by both success and failure. And perhaps because Special Ops is such a flexible tool, that growth has enabled the U.S. to multiply the way it uses force abroad without much consideration of overarching strategy. The advent of nuclear weapons, in the 1940s, presented leaders with urgent ethical and strategic imperatives. Defining the purpose of such weapons automatically demanded fresh thinking about the bedrock values of a democracy, the nature of multilateral alliances, the morality of warfare, and the scope of U.S. ambitions in the world. Because of its sub-rosa nature, Special Ops has not compelled the same kind of reckoning—and, in fact, may foster the illusion that a strategic framework is not necessary. It’s good to have a Swiss Army knife. And yet even a versatile knife can do only so much.

(https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2021/04/how-special-ops-became- the-solution-to-everything/618080/

Weaponized Drones: The Next Terrorist Modus Operandi in

Southeast Asia?

There are good reasons for governments to anticipate the use of drones in future attacks by regional militant groups. By V. Arianti and Muh Taufiqurrohman March 12, 2021

In 2020, a series of arrests conducted by Indonesia’s anti-terror police Detachment 88 revealed the terrorists’ intention to use unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), also known as drones. In October last year, a group of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) militants based in Bekasi, a suburb of Jakarta, was found in the possession of a drone and its batteries. Two months later, research by PAKAR, an Indonesia-based NGO that studies terrorism, suggested that that an Indonesian cell that supports the Islamic State (IS), led by a long-time extremist Hanif Ali Bhasot alias Abu Dayyan, planned to conduct an attack using a weaponized drone in Jakarta, targeting police officers. But how significant is the threat of terrorist weaponization of drones in Southeast Asia?

In this region, non-government entities and individuals have used drones for non- military purposes such as to provide aerial views of political rallies, monitor illegal logging, spray fertilisers and pesticides on plantations, and conduct business advertisements, as well as for recreational usage. Despite commercial drone usage in Southeast Asia in 2019 only contributing to less than 3 percent of the $127.3 billion global drone market, it is predicted to grow in the coming years. In Indonesia, drone sales have grown by up to 25 percent annually since 2015. One of the reasons for this growth is the affordable price of drones, which ranges from about $30 up to $4000.

The jihadi rebel groups based in Syria – IS and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – have used consumer- grade drones extensively for various purposes, such as propaganda, surveillance, guiding Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIED) attacks, and dropping munitions/bombs on targets. In Southeast Asia, Islamist militants have used drones for surveillance and propaganda, although plans to deliver bombs/munitions with drones have yet to materialize. For instance, the pro-IS Maute Group in the Philippines is known to have used drones for surveillance and propaganda in 2017. In 2016, the pro-IS Malaysian militant Mohammad Firdaus planned a bomb attack using a drone on the Bukit Aman Federal Police headquarters in Putrajaya and the Free Mason Temple in Bukit Jalil. Similarly, in Indonesia the following year, a court document of a pro-IS militant named Syam Ferry Anto (alias Abu Khafi) revealed that his cell intended to load a drone with a medium explosive bomb. None of the plans in Indonesia and Malaysia have materialized, however.

Thus far, militants in the region continue to favor traditional modus operandi, such as bombings and shootings, in addition to weaponizing everyday tools, such as knives and vehicles. However, the authorities should remain vigilant about the potential for terrorist cells to employ weaponized drones, for the following reasons.

Get briefed on the story of the week, and developing stories to watch across the Asia- Pacific.

First, as argued by terrorism expert Truls Hallberg Tønnessen, territorial control and operation in an armed conflict zone is one of the favorable conditions for militants to experiment with innovations in technology, including the DIY modification of commercially available drones to deliver bombs. In Southeast Asia, the Maute Group, which controlled the citty of Marawi from May to October 2017, is the only jihadi group that has procured drones and used them for defense, to monitor and provide early warning of incoming military raids. Although thus far no Southeast Asian group has ventured into weaponizing drones for attacks, authorities in this region should anticipate militants resorting to such tactics should there be a repeat of the 2017 Marawi siege or the bloody religious communal conflicts that took place in the late 1990s and early 2000s in Indonesia’s Poso and Ambon, where armed militant groups had some degree of control over a territory.

Enjoying this article? Click here to subscribe for full access. Just $5 a month.

Second, jihadi groups that have so far patiently withheld attacks until they are ready have had the intention to use drones, despite it being unclear if they really planned to use them for attacks. Such groups, particularly Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and Jamaah Ansharul Khilafah (JAK), and an Indonesian pro-IS outfit, are committed to conducting long-term i’dad (preparation for jihad) that can include the manufacturing of weapons. It is thus not surprising that in Indonesia, JI is so far perhaps the only militant group that has procured a drone. Meanwhile, according to research by PAKAR, JAK had also discussed procurement of a drone in 2019.

Third, other Indonesian pro-IS groups may have the intention to obtain and weaponize drones. According to PAKAR’s research, in December 2020, the Abu Dayyan group considered using a modified drone that could carry homemade munitions – particularly, 5-10 centimeter-long iron “bullets” – to drop on their targets. The group did not proceed with the plan, citing concerns about the lengthy preparation needed and the lack of technical capability to conduct such an attack. Given such concerns, many pro-IS groups have opted for traditional tactics with which they are more familiar, such as bombings. Nonetheless, the recruitment of tech-savvy individuals sympathetic to the groups’ ideology could serve as a game changer in their attempts at weaponizing drones. Fourth, there is a risk that the Indonesian fighters with IS and HTS could have been trained in the operation of drones, given that both Syrian rebel groups have known drone programs. One of the four JI personnel arrested in Bekasi in October 2020 in possession of a drone had been trained in Syria. This means that the returnees can potentially fill in the technical gap among Indonesian-based jihadists.

Fifth, criminal inmates, especially those with a drug trafficking background, have used drones in some penitentiaries in Indonesia in their attempts to deliver drugs and mobile phones as well as to boost internet signals in a bid to use illegally smuggled mobile phones inside the prisons. Whilst such attempts have not been observed among terrorist inmates, their similar usage of drones should not be discounted, given instances of the radicalization of narcotics inmates by some terrorist inmates, including in maximum security penitentiaries in Nusa Kambangan, off Central Java’s south coast.

The authorities in the region should continue to invest in mitigating the incursion of drones, for surveillance or attacks/directing attacks against vital facilities. As resource- constrained militant groups potentially deploy relatively cheap off-the-shelf drones as witnessed in Marawi, the authorities could also respond by procuring more anti-drone tools, starting with those with basic features such as a commercially available and inexpensive wi-fi jamming device, in order to protect more facilities that may be targeted by terrorists. Whilst such measures can mitigate the threat of certain commercial types of drones, the authorities in Southeast Asia also need to be more technologically prepared to locate the drone operators who can control them remotely.

Finally, the law enforcement agencies should identify militants who possess the technical skills to build weaponized drones and prevent them from transferring and using their skills to conduct attacks. https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/weaponized-drones-the-next-terrorist-modus-operandi- in-southeast-asia/

India, China to ensure stability on LAC, call another meeting of commanders soon The two sides have been locked in a standoff since May last year after Chinese troops impeded patrols by Indian forces and there were scuffles in the Ladakh and Sikkim sectors. By Rezaul H Laskar, Sutirtho Patranobis PUBLISHED ON MAR 12, 2021 07:40 PM IST

India and China agreed on Friday to ensure stability in the Ladakh sector of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and convene another meeting of senior military commanders soon to take forward disengagement and de-escalation at friction points on the disputed border. These were among the outcomes of a virtual meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC) on border affairs, which was held against the backdrop of the disengagement process stalling after the withdrawal of troops by both sides from the north and south banks of Pangong Lake in February. The meeting was held hours before the first summit of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or Quad, which will be joined by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and US President Joe Biden. The Quad Summit is expected to lead to several initiatives aimed at countering China’s influence and actions across the Indo-Pacific. At the WMCC meeting, the two sides reviewed the situation in the western sector of the LAC and had “in-depth discussions on the remaining issues” in this sector, a statement from the external affairs ministry said. The two sides agreed to continue their dialogue through diplomatic and military channels to “reach a mutually acceptable solution for complete disengagement from all friction points at the earliest”, the statement said. They also agreed to convene the 11th meeting of the senior military commanders “at an early date so that two sides could work towards complete disengagement from the remaining friction areas”, the statement added. The disengagement would enable both sides to “look at broader de-escalation of troops in the area and work towards restoration of peace and tranquillity in the border areas”. The two sides further agreed that in the interim period, they would “continue to maintain stability at ground level and prevent any untoward incident”, the statement said. A similarly worded readout issued from the Chinese side said the two sides had agreed to continue communications through diplomatic and military channels, “hold the next round of military-level talks as soon as possible, promote further de-escalation of the situation on the ground and jointly safeguard the hard-won peace and stability in the border areas”. The Indian statement said the two sides viewed the completion of disengagement on the north and south banks of Pangong Lake as providing a “good basis for the two sides to work towards early resolution” of remaining issues. It added that the agreement between the two foreign ministers during their meeting on the margins of a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meet in Moscow last September and their phone conversation last month “should continue to guide the work of two sides”. The Chinese readout noted that the two sides had positively evaluated the disengagement at Pangong Lake and had a candid and in-depth exchange of views on promoting resolution at other areas. It added that the two sides had agreed to stabilise the situation on the border and avoid any “repetition of the situation on the ground in accordance with the five-point consensus reached at the Moscow meeting of the two foreign ministers and the spirit of their February 25 phone call”. The WMCC meet was co-chaired additional secretary (East Asia) Naveen Srivastava of the external affairs ministry and Hong Liang, director general of the boundary and oceanic department of China’s foreign ministry. The 10th meeting of the senior military commanders was held on February 20 after the two sides completed the withdrawal of frontline troops with armoured formations and artillery from the banks of Pangong Lake. However, the two sides were unable to make progress on efforts to disengage at other friction points such as Gogra, Hot Springs and Depsang Plains. The two sides have been locked in a standoff since May last year after Chinese troops impeded patrols by Indian forces and there were scuffles in the Ladakh and Sikkim sectors. A brutal clash at Galwan Valley last June – which left 20 Indian soldiers and at least four Chinese troops dead and was the first incident on the LAC involving fatalities since 1975 – took bilateral ties to an all-time low. India has insisted that China’s actions on the LAC have seriously damaged bilateral ties and normalcy can be restored only by disengagement, de-escalation and restoration of the status quo on the border.

(https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/india-china-to-ensure-stability-on-lac-call- another-meeting-of-commanders-soon-101615556851232.html

China comes back from 2020 rocket failure with Long March 7A and satellite payload launch

• Technology verification satellite Shiyan-9 was sent to geosynchronous orbit • China plans to construct Tiangong Space Station through 11 launches carried out this year and next year

Kristin Huang

Published: 1:37pm, 12 Mar, 2021 Why you can trust SCMP

China’s Long March 7A rocket blasts off from the Wenchang Spacecraft Launch Site in Hainan province early Friday morning. Photo: Xinhua

China’s next-generation Long March 7A blasted off from its Wenchang launch site in the southern province of Hainan early on Friday, one year after a failed attempt.

The launch sent a technology verification satellite, the Shiyan-9 developed by China Academy of Space Technology, into geosynchronous orbit, matching the Earth’s rotation.

China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), China’s main space contractor, confirmed the launch was successful on its official social media account 40 minutes later.

It came after a launch failure in March 2020. A loss of pressure occurred after first-stage separation, leading to engine malfunction. That was the first launch of the CZ-7A, or Long March 7A.

CASC plans to carry out between three and five CZ-7A launches a year by 2025. The success on Friday was seen as a breakthrough for China because the Long March 7A can increase the payload weight to geosynchronous orbit from 5.5 tonnes to 7 tonnes, according to CASC.

The CZ-7A is a three-stage, medium-lift, liquid-fuel rocket. It is expected to play an important role in China’s high-orbit missions.

At 60 metres (197 feet) long and weighing 573 tonnes (632 short tons), the rocket is designed mainly for geostationary satellite delivery and can be launched from both the Wenchang site and the Xichang Satellite Launch Centre in Sichuan province.

China and Russia unveil plans for joint lunar space station 10 Mar 2021

The CZ-7A is a variant of the CZ-7, which is designed mainly to launch cargo spacecraft to China’s planned Tiangong Space Station, according to an article by news portal 163.com.

With a payload capacity of over 13.5 tonnes, the CZ-7 can send more supplies to space at one time, helping future Chinese astronauts stay in the space station longer.

China will launch 11 missions this year and next year as it builds the space station. These will consist of three module launches, four Tianzhou cargo missions and four crewed flights.

It plans to launch the core module of the Tiangong this spring and aims to finish construction by the end of next year

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3125154/china-comes-back-2020- rocket-failure-successful-launch-long

The disinformation tactics used by China

By Krassi Twigg and Kerry Allen BBC Monitoring

Published

image captionFacebook and Twitter removed accounts linked to China during unrest in Hong Kong in 2019 The Chinese embassy in London has criticised the BBC following a documentary about Chinese disinformation campaigns. There have also recently been a series of denials from Beijing over reports into forced imprisonment of its minority Uighur population - these have included baseless accusations against media and human rights organisations. In the latest attack, an official falsely claimed a Uighur interviewee on a BBC programme was an actress. So what tactics does China use in the spread of misleading and false information? • Pressure and propaganda - the reality of reporting Xinjiang • China's hidden camps

Increasing anti-BBC coverage There have been almost daily anti-BBC articles in Chinese state media since mid- February. It follows a decision by the UK broadcasting regulator Ofcom to revoke the licence for China's state-run overseas broadcaster, CGTN. For years, China has broadly criticised Western outlets for reports on affairs in Xinjiang and elsewhere in China, saying they should not intervene in China's "internal affairs". But these latest attacks on Western media are a clear escalation. Chinese domestic media outlets have praised their government for banning the BBC's World News channel, although it was only available in some international hotels and residential compounds where foreigners live. Reports from leading outlets like China's Global Times have criticised the "Cold War" mentality when it comes to China - on topics ranging from Hong Kong, the Uighur population of Xinjiang and the Covid-19 pandemic. When China was facing a backlash over its handling of early stages of the pandemic last year, and some US officials were floating the theory that the virus could have escaped from a Wuhan lab, CGTN started to push its own conspiracy theory. https://www.bbc.com/news/56364952 Moscow would retaliate if U.S. deployed missiles in Japan: Ifax cites foreign ministry

By Reuters Staff Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attends a news conference following a meeting with Qatar's Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in Doha, Qatar March 11, 2021. Russian Foreign Ministry/Handout via REUTERS

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Friday said Moscow would retaliate should the United States deploy ground-based missiles in Japan, the Interfax news agency reported.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-russia-missiles/moscow-would-retaliate-if-u-s- deployed-missiles-in-japan-ifax-cites-foreign-ministry-idUSKBN2B40XR

South Korea to suspend defence exchanges with Myanmar, reconsider aid

By Josh Smith, Sangmi Cha 2 MIN READ

SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea will suspend defence exchanges with Myanmar and ban arms exports to the country after a military coup and violent suppression of pro- democracy protests, the foreign ministry said on Friday.

The ministry also said Seoul would limit exports of other strategic items, reconsider development aid and grant humanitarian exemptions for Myanmar nationals to allow them to stay in South Korea until the situation improves.

“Despite repeated demands of the international community, including South Korea, there are an increasing number of victims in Myanmar due to violent acts of the military and police authorities,” the ministry said in a statement.

The last defence exports from South Korea to Myanmar were in 2019, but Seoul still spends millions of dollars on development projects there, according to data filed with the International Aid Transparency Initiative.

The South Korean government would reconsider some unspecified developmental cooperation with Myanmar, but would continue projects that are directly linked to the livelihood of Myanmar citizens and humanitarian aid, the statement said.

Myanmar activists held more rallies on Friday, a day after a rights group said security forces killed 12 protesters calling for a return to democracy.

The Southeast Asian country has been in crisis since the army ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi on Feb. 1, and detained her and other officials of her National League for Democracy.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-myanmar/south-korea-to-suspend- defence-exchanges-with-myanmar-reconsider-aid-idUSKBN2B40M8

Turkey turns to South Korean companies to help build battle tank Ankara seeks new partners in arms production as the West and Japan block sales

A prototype of the Altay tank for which Turkey is hoping to develop and build with the help of South Korean companies. © Anatolia Agency

SINAN TAVSAN, Nikkei staff writerMarch 12, 2021 09:31 JST

ISTANBUL -- Turkey is seeking new defense suppliers and partners in countries from South Korea to Ukraine to overcome "tacit and implicit embargoes" from allies in the West.

Defense News reported that Turkey's armored vehicle producer BMC, which is developing a project to build the Altay battle tank, has signed preliminary deals with South Korea's Doosan Group and S&T Dynamics to buy their engine and transmission system.

The Altay tank project has been significantly delayed by a lack of critical technology such as the engine and transmission systems. Turkey had previously contacted South Korean companies to provide such technology to no avail then.

Ankara had also approached Germany's MTU for engine supplies and RENK for transmission systems but failed to clinch a deal due to Berlin's restrictions on arms exports to Turkey on account of its military intervention in Syria.

Defense News reported that to circumvent Germany's restrictions on exports to the country, South Korean companies will localize production of some of the South Korean power pack system, which includes German parts.

In 2013, Turkey also approached the Japanese government and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to help it develop the Altay tank. However, Turkey insisted on retaining rights to export the tank to friendly countries such as Azerbaijan and Pakistan, which would breach Japan's principles on defense equipment exports, and as such, negotiations ultimately ended in failure.

Turkey has the second largest army in NATO after the U.S. and the country is becoming increasingly assertive in its foreign policy and is not afraid to wield its military power. Its army has been engaging in Syria, Libya, Iraq and more recently in the Turkic state of Azerbaijan through the supply of heavy arms and military training. Ankara's navy is also facing off European Union member states Greece and Cyprus over maritime boundary disputes.

Furthermore, Turkey is increasingly at odds with its NATO ally the U.S. due to Ankara's decision to procure the advanced Russian missile defense system, S400s, after abandoning a Chinese option.

The U.S. slapped minor sanctions in December on Turkey's top defense procurement and development body, the Presidency of Defense Industries, and its top executives. At this point, Washington had already kicked Turkey out from its stealth fighter jet program, for F-35s, over the same matter.

Since 2018, the U.S. has also been blocking engine exports to Turkey over its $1.5 billion deal to supply Pakistan with military helicopters that it had jointly developed with an Italian defense company.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin told Bloomberg this month, "This (U.S. blocking) will probably cause the tender to be won by China and U.S. will be the loser."

Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar told local media at the end of February, "Allies and friends insist on somehow not to give us the material which we already paid for." According to defense industry analyst Arda Mevlutoglu, U.S. sanctions will have a large impact on the Turkish defense industry.

"Now there is a risk that Western defense companies might refrain from doing business with Turkey," Mevlutoglu said. "It might not be easy to find alternatives in the short run... The sector will face serious damage."

Bloomberg also reported this month that Turkey is in talks with Pakistan to cooperate on manufacturing fighter jet and missile defense systems, using Chinese designs. It is unclear if the talks had advanced to the point of seeking Beijing's consent to use its defense technology.

After the U.S. denied the sale of military drones to Turkey, Ankara developed its own versions which are now used in Libya, Syria and in the Azerbaijan- Armenia conflict. Ankara has also recently sold those drones to Ukraine, a move that has ruffled the feathers of Russia.

Ukraine has a Soviet legacy of producing helicopters, aircraft and cruise missile engines. Turkey is also counting on Ukrainian cooperation on engine and transmission production for its defense projects.

Turkish unmanned aerial vehicle producer Baykar Defense will deliver to the army this year its next-generation armed drone equipped with Ukrainian twin turboprop engines, a significant upgrade of its existing model.

Due to the use of Turkish drones in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict last year, the Canadian government has announced the suspension of export permits for drone-related components to Turkey. Canadian companies have been providing engine, drone optics and laser targeting systems.

Can Kasapoglu, security and defense program director at Turkey's Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, said: "As seen in the Canada case, Turkey is facing unacceptable reaction from its NATO allies, so the country is turning to alternatives to generate technology transfer and co-production options. Yet, high-end defense technology transfer is a geopolitical issue with critical importance and there is no easy way forward." https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Aerospace-Defense/Turkey-turns-to-South-Korean- companies-to-help-build-battle-tank

Panel: Pentagon Needs High-Level Attention on AI, Digital Workforce to Keep Up With China

By: John Grady March 12, 2021 6:19 PM

•

Operations Specialist 3rd Class Zachary Ezekiel, assigned to the guided-missile cruiser

USS Monterey (CG 61), identifies air contacts in the combat information center (CIC) on

March 21, 2016. Monterey is underway conducting Composite Training Unit Exercise

(COMPTUEX) with the Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group in preparation for a future deployment. US Navy photo. Pentagon leaders need to set clear digital readiness performance goals this year as a first step in revamping the requirements process so the United States can maintain its military technological advantage, the vice chairman of a national panel on artificial intelligence said Friday.

Robert Work, former deputy secretary of defense and undersecretary of the Navy, told a joint hearing of the House Armed Services cyber, innovative technologies and information systems subcommittee and the House Oversight and Reform national security subcommittee that, if the Defense Department doesn’t take these steps, China will overtake the United States technologically in the next decade.

The panel laid out recommendations directly affecting the Pentagon in the 700-plus- page report from the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence.

Work said the important reforms would require “top-down leadership” that starts with a “high-level steering committee on emerging technology.” Co-chairing that committee would be the deputy secretary of defense, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the principal deputy director of national intelligence. “They set the priorities,” he said.

In short, without that kind of leadership, the report states, “uneven adoption of AI will threaten military interoperability and the political cohesion and resiliency of U.S. alliances.”

That also translates into having the under secretary of defense for research and engineering become the co-chair and chief science advisor to the Joint Requirements Oversight Council, where critical decisions are made on what systems to buy.

At the combatant commander level, the report recommends following the example of Adm. Craig Faller, head of U.S. Southern Command, in having an AI operations advocate to advise him and staff on what capabilities they have on hand and also what AI can and cannot do for them. The report notes the advisory role would be similar to the role played by staff judge advocates.

The goal is to have all this in place and running by 2025.

“AI will improve intelligence analysis,” Gilman Louie, venture capitalist and former head of the CIA’s venture capitalist operation In-Q-Tel, said during the hearing.

Work said the Pentagon and other governmental agencies need “to establish a common digital ecosystem” with the private sector, universities and research institutions. The report notes that “a lack of national urgency is dangerous at a time when underlying weaknesses have emerged in our AI ecosystem that impair innovation and when viewed against the backdrop of China’s state-directed AI progress.” Louie viewed the situation now as “a gathering storm” where China and Russia are using cyber attacks and harvesting data from open Western sources to their advantage. All too often, the Defense Department, governments at all levels and much of private industry do not realize that “software and AI are joined at the hip” and should not simply be added on to big programs. Instead, they are “to be consumed like fuel.”

Eric Schmidt, commission chairman and former head of Google, said “the real strength of our nation will come from software and AI.” He then stressed the importance of attracting home-grown talent to these fields and retaining immigrants who come to American universities for advanced science and technology degrees. As he told the Senate Armed Services Committee earlier this month, the United States holds a slim technological lead over China in part because it offers opportunities that Beijing does not.

“We want entrepreneurs,” Louie said in answer to what kind of immigrants the United States should retain. The report offers suggested legislation on how to attract and retain these immigrants who are doing doctoral work at American universities. “Talent comes to democracies,” he said.

Schmidt said “it’s stupid” to send these graduates back abroad to compete with the United States. Earlier in the hearing, he said China is America’s “pacing competitor” for software, hardware and talent. v

Organizational reform and an emphasis on AI are not enough to retain technological edge in high-technology fields, panel members noted.

Former Federal Communications Commissioner Mignon Clyburn told the joint hearing “the military needs expertise in and out of the uniform.” After reviewing Pentagon personnel policies and career paths, she argued that the Defense Department “is unlikely to develop that expertise on its own.”

Worse yet, the Pentagon often loses its uniformed personnel with software development and artificial intelligence skills because there is no sure path for promotion by staying in those fields.

“We must stop bleeding talent,” she said.

Along with that change, she said the services must train “junior leaders … on when to trust machine learning” in their decision-making early in their careers. The military could also incentivize experimentation with and early adoption of AI tools by having that work help officers looking for promotions to more senior positions, much the way the military incentivizes education and other skills by incorporating them via the promotion board process. Committee members repeatedly questioned the recommendations for a Digital Corps, a Digital Reserve Corps and the establishment of a degree-granting Digital Academy.

Clyburn told the members “we have a clogged pipeline” to entering government service when a candidate with digital skills is interested in joining the workforce, and retaining them is also difficult because promotion opportunities can be limited.

“The Digital Corps is modeled on the Army’s Medical Corps” and organized along specialized lines. It would have its own personnel policies, guidelines for promotion, training opportunities and continued certification.

Clyburn compared the civilian National Reserve Digital Corps to the National Guard or the services’ reserve components. They would meet monthly and have a two-week annual obligation as well: 38 days total. As the report notes, “they can help improve AI education, perform data triage and acquisition, help guide projects and frame digital solutions” across the government.

She added there would be a commitment to serve for a specified time and there would be scholarship inducements to attract recruits.

The Digital Academy would offer a highly-concentrated seven-year technological curriculum. Like the military services academies, there would be no tuition charges but rather an obligation to serve in the Digital Corps for five years upon graduation, Clyburn said.

Cost is definitely a factor as to whether Congress agrees to go ahead with the academy recommendation. Schmidt said, “there are universities helping us with this.”

Several times in his opening statement and later in questioning, Work, like other commission members, said “AI adoption has to be accelerated” and it has to be done with allies and partners to present a united, democratic response to China and Russia.

“We want to be exploiting homegrown talent” as well as attracting graduate students from abroad, he said.

Looking at the Pentagon itself, Work added “there’s a lot of talent in the department. They will rock the world” if barriers are broken down and career paths created. “Give them a classifier” so they can be identified and promoted.

“Computer science is the number-one major, not economics” in American universities, Schmidt said. The problem is these graduates “are coming into the private sector because they can work in it,” which is something that’s currently difficult to do in uniform or civilian government service. https://news.usni.org/2021/03/12/panel-pentagon-needs-high-level-attention-on-ai- digital-workforce-to-keep-up-with-china Pentagon, Rivals to Play ‘Cat-and-Mouse Game’ with AI By Jon Harper

The U.S. military and its foreign adversaries could soon find themselves in an interminable battle to protect their artificial intelligence systems from attack while developing offensive capabilities to go after their enemies’ AI capabilities.

Defense officials see great potential for artificial intelligence and machine learning to aid in a variety of missions ranging from support functions to front-line warfighting. But the technology comes with risks.

“Machine learning … offers the allure of reshaping many aspects of national security, from intelligence analysis to weapons systems and more,” said a recent report by the Georgetown University Center for Security and Emerging Technology, “Hacking AI: A Primer for Policymakers on Machine Learning Cybersecurity.”

However, “machine learning systems — the core of modern AI — are rife with vulnerabilities,” noted the study written by CSET Senior Fellow Andrew Lohn.

Adversaries can attack these systems in a number of ways to include: manipulating the integrity of their data and leading them to make errors; prompting them to unveil sensitive information; or causing them to slow down or cease functioning, thereby limiting their availability, according to the report.

Methods such as “data poisoning” and “evasion” are just some techniques that can lead ML platforms to make mistakes.

“In ‘data poisoning,’ attackers make changes to the training data to embed malicious patterns for the machine to learn. This causes the model to learn the wrong patterns and to tune its parameters in the wrong way,” the report explained. “In ‘evasion,’ attackers discover imperfections in the model — the ways in which its parameters may be poorly tuned — and then exploit these weaknesses in the deployed model with carefully crafted inputs.”

For example, an attacker could break into a network and manipulate the data stored within it, compromising the integrity of the data that the software relies on.

However, adversaries don’t necessarily have to break into a network or system to thwart it, the report noted. For example, attackers might not need to hack into a military drone to cause it to misidentify its targets — they could simply make educated guesses about the drone’s machine learning system model and act to exploit it.

In a so-called “evasion” operation, an attacker can make subtle changes to system inputs to cause a machine to change its assessment of what it is seeing, the study explained.

To illustrate this vulnerability, CSET cyber experts made subtle changes to a picture of Georgetown University’s Healy Hall building, a National Historical Landmark, and then fed that into a common image recognition system.

“Human eyes would find the changes difficult to notice, but they were tailored to trick the machine learning system,” the report said. “Once all the changes were made … the machine was 99.9 percent sure the picture was of a triceratops” dinosaur.

While the Healy Hall triceratops vignette might be amusing to some readers, it would be no laughing matter if, say, a military drone misidentified a hospital as a weapons depot and bombed it; or, conversely, if enemy tanks were allowed to attack U.S. troops because an adversary was able to trick an ML-equipped surveillance system into misidentifying the platforms as innocuous commercial vehicles.

The aim of another type of counter-AI operation, known as a “confidentiality attack,” is not to cause a machine learning system to make errors, but to uncover sensitive data.

To achieve this, adversaries can watch how the system responds to different kinds of inputs.

“From this observation, attackers can learn information about how the model works and about its training data. If the training data is particularly sensitive — such as if the model is trained on classified information — such an attack could reveal highly sensitive information,” the study said.

With this level of understanding about how a particular machine learning model works, adversaries could also figure out how it may be compromised, the study noted.

Technology developers and policymakers are confronted with the task of figuring out how to manage the inevitable risks associated with machine learning.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon also has incentives to develop capabilities to go after competitors’ platforms.

“The United States is not the only country fielding AI systems, and the opportunity to exploit these vulnerabilities in adversaries’ systems may be tempting,” the CSET report noted. “There are obvious military benefits of causing an enemy weapon to misidentify its targets or send an adversary’s autonomous vehicles off course. There are also the obvious intelligence benefits of stealing adversaries’ models and learning about the data they have used.”

U.S. defense officials are already thinking through these issues.

The Air Force has been in talks with the Defense Digital Service about holding an AI hacking challenge.

“We want to go into this clear-eyed and understand how to break AI,” said Will Roper, who recently served as Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics. “There’s not a lot of commercial investment [or] commercial research on that. Not nearly as much as there is on making AI.”

Roper, a highly respected tech guru who spearheaded a number of artificial intelligence initiatives at the Pentagon, left office in late January during the presidential transition.

More research and probing could help uncover vulnerabilities in AI and ML.

“Whatever we discover, we’ll try to fix,” Roper told reporters during a Defense Writers Group event. “Then whatever we fix, we’ll try to break. And we’ll try to break those fixes and fix those breaks. And I guess that goes on forever in what we’re calling ‘algorithmic warfare.’”

The Pentagon already has experience leveraging machine learning for intelligence operations such as Project Maven, which used the technology to help human analysts sift through hours and hours of drone footage collected from overseas battlefields.

Future plans call for deploying a variety of unmanned and autonomous systems to include robotic aircraft, combat vehicles and ships.

Roper said artificial intelligence technologies are ushering in “a new epoch of warfare.”

“The algorithms, the AI that we take into the fight, we’re going to have to have an instinct for them and they will have weaknesses that are very different than our humans and our traditional systems,” Roper said.

The military will need to develop “digital stealth” and other digital countermeasures to thwart enemy efforts to undermine U.S. artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities, he noted, comparing the concept to how warfighters currently use stealth and electronic warfare to defeat enemy radars and jamming devices. The Defense Department needs to accelerate its acquisitions so that it doesn’t end up fighting “tomorrow’s war with yesterday’s AI,” he added.

The military will have to find the right balance between letting “smart” machines do their thing, and keeping them on a leash with humans exercising oversight.

While officials acknowledge the risks involved in relying on artificial intelligence, the technology is also viewed by many as too useful to pass up.

“When it’s having a bad day, when an adversary’s potentially messing with it, it’s too fragile today for us to hand the reins completely to it,” Roper said. “But it’s too powerful when it’s having a good day for us not to have it there in the first place.”

The Defense Department’s AI strategy, released in 2019, calls for funding research aimed at making artificial intelligence systems more resilient, including to hacking and spoofing.

Alka Patel, head of the ethics team at the Pentagon’s Joint Artificial Intelligence Center, told National Defense that the military’s AI systems will need to be designed and engineered so they can be disengaged or deactivated if they aren’t operating as intended.

In this new era of algorithmic warfare, will the attacker or the defender have the upper hand?

“It is hard to answer this question until the field of machine learning cybersecurity settles on specific offensive and defensive techniques,” the CSET report said. “Even then the answer may not be clear, as attackers and defenders engage one another, both sides will discover new techniques.”

The study likened the situation to a “rapidly evolving cat-and-mouse game.”

Roper noted that it’s unclear what the balance of power will be.

“It could end up being that it’s so easy to break that the offensive order of AI … is always so dominant that we don’t really have to worry about it. We just have a lot of counter-AI capability and we muddy that water for both sides,” he said. “But it could be that it balances pretty well, that the countermeasures and the counter-countermeasures balance well so that as you get into a cat-and-mouse game, if you pick your plan well, you can always have a decided advantage.”

Defenders face a number of challenges. For one, traditional cybersecurity techniques don’t necessarily apply to machine learning, the CSET report noted. “Attacks on machine learning systems differ from traditional hacking exploits and therefore require new protections and responses,” it said.

“For example, machine learning vulnerabilities often cannot be patched the way traditional software can, leaving enduring holes for attackers to exploit.”

A subtle change in an attacker’s operations can change how effective a particular defense is, the study noted. Additionally, defensive techniques that work well for a less sophisticated machine learning system might not be as effective for a more advanced system, or vice versa.

The CSET report compared AI competition to the arcade game “Whack-a-Mole” where defenders must rapidly bat down new threats that keep popping up.

“New attacks are invented and defenses are developed, and then those defenses are defeated, and so on,” the study said.

So how should policymakers and technologists approach this challenge? System-level defenses, according to the CSET study. That includes the use of redundant components and the enablement of human oversight and intervention when possible.

The report used a self-driving car scenario to illustrate how system-level defenses could avert disaster.

“A commonly cited example of an attack involves placing a sticker on a stop sign that makes it appear to autonomous vehicles to be a 45 mph sign,” it said. “Although this attack is possible and easy to perform, it only achieves a destructive effect if the car drives into a busy intersection. If the car has many ways to decide to stop, such as by knowing that intersections usually have stop signs, relying on lasers for collision avoidance, observing other cars stopping, or noticing high speed cross-traffic, then the risk of attack can remain low despite the car being made of potentially vulnerable machine learning components.”

While traditional cyber attacks won’t be going away anytime soon, algorithmic warfare is the future of cyber conflict, said James Lewis, director of the Strategic Technologies Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Biden administration officials need to continue to think about “how we develop our own tools, how we mess with other countries’ tools,” Lewis said in an interview. “Our opponents are certainly looking at more sophisticated tools” for attacking AI systems, he warned. https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2021/3/12/pentagon-rivals-to-play-cat-and- mouse-game-with-ai Reposturing US defence to the Indo-Pacific

How might the US military deliver on its long-held ambitions to shift its centre of gravity to the Indo-Pacific region? Euan Graham explores how the Biden administration might go about reversing a deteriorating strategic situation in Asia. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has initiated a global force posture review. China and the Indo-Pacific are expected to be identified as strategic priorities. But there is sure to be scepticism in the region about the Biden administration’s ability and willingness to deliver significant new defence commitments. A chorus-line of Austin’s predecessors described the Indo-Pacific as a priority theatre, yet ultimately fell short on reallocating assets and fiscal resources from Europe and the Middle East. Biden has also clearly signalled his intention to put diplomacy first in American statecraft. To be convincing to regional audiences, China included, defence rebalancing is likely to be required in four areas, not all of which will be within the review’s formal scope.

1. Inter-regional balancing

The most obvious option for global reposturing is moving US forward-deployed forces from one region to another. Tilting the centre of gravity for US naval operations from the Gulf to the South China Sea would be one visible way to substantiate claims of prioritisation for the largely maritime Indo-Pacific region. This could initially take the form of a commitment continuously to maintain an aircraft carrier or amphibious ready group in the South China Sea, although technology will hopefully facilitate less vulnerable ways to combine presence and credible combat power in future.

Such a reallocation of effort would require not just US Navy forces to ‘swing’ east from 5th and 6th fleets, or surge west from the 3rd Fleet, but a parallel diplomatic effort to bolster access and support arrangements in Southeast Asia and beyond. US naval logistics are currently centred on Singapore. Regaining access to Subic Bay, the site of a former US naval base in the Philippines, would help to facilitate a more agile US naval presence in the South China Sea, plugging a gap between Singapore and Japan. This would not be politically feasible until President Rodrigo Duterte leaves office, in 2022, if at all. Regardless of his successor, questions will persist about the Philippines’ reliability as a US ally against China. But a scaled-up offer of assistance for the Philippines armed forces would strengthen the hand of US diplomats, whose job it is to persuade an increasingly transactional Manila that it is in the Philippines’ interests to support a US military presence in the neighbourhood.

A ‘trial balloon’ released late in the Trump administration to reconstitute a US First Fleet, aimed at boosting the American naval presence in the eastern Indian Ocean, is worth another look, even if it amounts to no more than setting up a new numbered task force. Singapore is unlikely to host it, a casualty of the ill-considered way it was announced without prior consultation by former Secretary of the Navy Kenneth Braithwaite. Australia could be more willing to embrace it, as an aid to securing its northwestern approaches, though Canberra would bargain hard over any set-up costs. A new US task force would be well placed to cooperate with India, Australia and other regional navies, counterbalancing China’s growing naval presence in the Indian Ocean. It would also help to free up the overstretched Japan-based 7th Fleet to concentrate on the western Pacific. Long-term US hopes are likely to remain pinned on India stepping up as hegemon in the Indian Ocean. But a modest boost to the US presence would signal Washington’s commitment to shaping the naval balance in its favour.

2. Inter-service balancing

There is a strong likelihood that defence budgets will flatline or decline under Biden. The burden of internal savings will, therefore, fall primarily on cuts to the US Army, in order to ensure that ships, submarines, aircraft and missiles are built in sufficient numbers to maintain the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. The 28,500-strong US Forces, Korea remains best suited to an Army-led command in case of a conflict on the Peninsula, but elsewhere the US Marines should be the go-to ground force for contingencies across the Indo-Pacific. The Marines are part way into a global force redesign for small-unit littoral operations that appears tailor-made for the Pacific. And they are identifying savings at the same time.

Tinkering with co-equal service funding allocations is a third-rail issue in defence. But as an ex-Army general, Austin could be the Secretary of Defense best qualified to do it, provided he receives top cover from the Biden White House against an inevitable Congressional rearguard.

3. Intra-regional balancing

Moving some additional US defence assets into the Indo-Pacific would help to maintain the balance of power and resolve in the face of China’s continuing military build-up, providing a measure of reassurance to wavering allies and partners. But Washington also needs to maximise the flexibility of its forces already in the region. US forces in Korea could find themselves sidelined in a Taiwan or other China contingency, although the US 7th Air Force has significant combat capability to contribute beyond the Korean Peninsula. However, Seoul is reticent to grant the US flexibility to deploy its forces freely, for fear of entrapment in a US–China conflict.

US–South Korea alliance relations are currently too bruised for the Biden administration to broach this head-on with Seoul. But the alliance is due for a bottom-up and mutual cost-benefit review, probably after South Korea’s presidential elections next year, and after agreement has been reached on financial support for US forces based there. Washington wants to maximise US strategic flexibility, while Seoul seeks greater autonomy. They will need to agree on a sustainable division of labour that serves regional security in broad terms. The US can no longer afford to maintain boutique defence guarantees.

4. Capacity building

It is frequently overlooked that defence capacity-building programmes in the Middle East and Europe continue to dwarf those in the Indo-Pacific. This imbalance needs to be considered and corrected in tandem with the global posture review. If America’s diplomats are expected to convince their hosts to grant greater access to US forces and to take on more collaborative roles and missions, as part of a broad-based deterrence approach towards China, then they will require incentives in hand.

It is unrealistic to expect that the US global force posture review will surge US defence resources en masse to the Indo-Pacific. Course-correcting the Pentagon juggernaut is difficult. Effecting strategic change in the real world is exponentially harder, given the need to move in step with allies and partners, some of whom skimp on their own defence and actively hedge on China. America’s adversaries get to ‘vote’, too. But the review presents an opportunity for the Biden administration to begin turning around a deteriorating strategic situation in Asia.

(https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2021/03/reposturing-us-defence-to-the-indo-pacific

Analysts Call for Adjusting Missile Defense Funding 3/12/2021 By Jon Harper

A Standard Missile-3 Block IIA test launch

The Biden administration should rethink the nation’s investments in missile defense, according to analysts.

The Congressional Budget Office in a new report, “Costs of Implementing Recommendations of the 2019 Missile Defense Review,” estimates that the 10-year price tag of the Pentagon’s missile defense plans for the 2020s would be about $176 billion, based on the Trump administration’s 2020 budget request.

Of the $176 billion total, “about 35 percent of the total is for systems that are primarily for homeland ballistic missile defense, … about 40 percent is for systems that are primarily for regional ballistic missile defense, and the remaining 25 percent is for cruise missile defense,” according to the study.

However, the new administration is expected to conduct a new missile defense review which could result in a significant shift in priorities.

“I think that the Biden administration really wants to be thoughtful and not chase every threat” with expensive defensive systems, said Laura Grego, senior scientist with the Union of Concerned Scientists’ Global Security Program. “It wants to do really hard- nose cost-benefit analyses.”

The United States needs to avoid getting into a “tail chase” trying to keep up with growth in adversaries’ intercontinental missile arsenals, she said during a recent panel. To that end, she suggested “slimming down” the mandate for the Ground-based Midcourse Defense, or GMD, system with the goal of protecting the homeland against limited strikes. Greater focus should be on investing in systems that are dedicated to regional missile defense, she added. Other ideas that have been bandied about, such as building systems that could have a global reach like space-based interceptors, would be “wildly expensive” and should be discarded, Grego said.

Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said topline funding levels for missile defense should be maintained, but some of that money should be shifted toward programs focused on defeating non-ballistic missile threats such as cruise missiles, drones and hypersonics.

“We could be doing something significantly different than what we’re doing now while staying within basically the same budget profile,” he said. “We’re going to need to stay within that budget profile” due to budget constraints.

“This is an opportunity to really double down on regional and theater air-and-missile defense … for all the other aspects of forward [deployed] forces in particular, so that we can support our broad deterrence and defense goals,” he added.

(https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2021/3/12/analysts-call-for- adjusting-missile-defense-funding

The US-ROK Alliance in 2021: Back on Track?

With a cost-sharing deal finally agreed, what lies ahead for the U.S.-South Korea alliance? By Ankit Panda

March 12, 2021

Credit: U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. Ken ScarADVERTISEMENT

The Diplomat’s Asia Geopolitics podcast host Ankit Panda (@nktpnd) speaks to Karl Friedhoff, the Marshall M. Bouton Fellow for Asia Studies at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, about the future of the U.S.-South Korea alliance and South Korean foreign policy in the remaining year of President Moon Jae-in’s administration.

Click the play button to the right to listen.

If you’re an iOS or Mac user, you can also subscribe to The Diplomat’s Asia Geopolitics podcast on iTunes here; if you use Windows or Android, you can subscribe on Google Play here, or on Spotify here.If you like the podcast and have suggestions for content, please leave a review and rating on iTunes and TuneIn. You can contact the host, Ankit Panda, here.

(https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/the-us-rok-alliance-in-2021-back-on-track/ With its support for US strategy, France is playing with fire in the South China Sea

• France appears generally supportive of US political and military strategy in the region, which invites China’s economic, political and possibly military wrath • Despite French denials, the actions of its military may well be interpreted as hostile by Beijing, and French businesses invested in China should be worried

As two French warships approach the South China Sea, France needs to pause and re- evaluate the signals it is sending China. The French Armed Forces Ministry said the passage was in support of “freedom of navigation”, but this term has become politically loaded because the vast majority of US freedom of navigation operations in the region are aimed at China. There is a lot that can be read into France’s actions.

It already appears to China that France is generally supportive of US political and military strategy in the region. This invites China’s economic, political and possibly military wrath. France is playing with fire.

In the Trump era, the US’ goal in the region was to maintain its hegemony. So far, the Biden administration has not disavowed that goal, and seems to still be pursuing it. China and Southeast Asia view French policy in Asia in the context of its alliance with the US and its past as a colonial master.

It won’t take much to convince China that France is supporting US efforts to contain it. This is the signal France is sending by participating in joint exercises with India, Australia, Japan and the US.

Although French President Emmanuel Macron has appealed for European

“strategic autonomy” from the US, actions speak louder than words.

To China, France’s first significant strategic signal came in 2019, when it sent the warship Vendemiaire through the Taiwan Strait . Although this was not the first French passage through the sensitive waters, it came at a time of frequent US warship passages and growing Chinese anger. China responded by disinviting France from the naval parade in honour of the 70th anniversary of China’s navy. China’s navy celebrates 70th anniversary

Whether they are legal, China views such warship passages as threatening and contrary to the one-China policy. At the very least, it considers them unfriendly.

Then France in February that it had sent the nuclear attack submarine Emeraude and a support vessel through the South China Sea. French Defence Minister Florence Parly called it “striking proof of the capacity of our French navy to deploy far away and for a long time, together with our Australian, American and Japanese strategic partners”.

This must be considered against the backdrop of French strategic policy. In 2018, Macron called for the creation of a Paris-Delhi-Canberra axis to gain China’s respect. Pierre Vandier, chief of staff of the French navy, said last year: “We want to demonstrate our presence to the region … This is a message aimed at China. This is a message about multilateral partnerships and the freedom of passage.”

China does recognise the difference between American freedom of navigation operations and normal transits. France needs to be careful to maintain a distinction between the two.

In contrast, although a German warship plans to transit the South China Sea, Germany has declared that the ship will not enter the claimed territorial waters around the features there. In a sign of the political sensitivity of the passage, the US hailed Germany’s “support for a rules-based international order”, while China warned countries not to take freedom of navigation “as an excuse to undermine the sovereignty and security of littoral countries”.

Map of major military facilities in the Chinese-claimed parts of the South China Sea. Graphic: SCMP

A French frigate and an amphibious assault ship are now making their way to the South China Sea. It is not clear whether they will pass through the Taiwan Strait. If they do, China’s reaction will be unpleasant. If they do not, it will send a signal that France does not want to further offend China. This is a dilemma of its own making. France would surely sour relations with China, and perhaps even cross a red line, if it were to send its warships through the Qiongzhou (or Hainan) Strait, between China’s Leizhou Peninsula and Hainan island. Yet, this is what the French are reported to be planning.

China, with some legal justification, considers this strait to be internal waters. Moreover, since the Qiongzhou Strait is not wider than 24 nautical miles, it falls entirely within China’s 12 nautical mile territorial limits. China requires foreign warships to seek prior permission before entering its territorial seas.

But the US – along with, presumably, France – maintains that the Hainan Strait is international waters. Unless France and China work this out beforehand, it might just lead to kinetic conflict.

China is conducting a month-long military exercise in the area and has issued a notice to mariners restricting ship movements. In 2019, China and France signed multibillion-dollar deals . Despite French denials, the words and actions of the French military may be interpreted as hostile by China. French businesses invested in China should be worried. France’s much vaunted claim to be setting an independent foreign policy sounds rather hollow. It appears France is trying to have its cake and eat it.

The French are going to have to decide if they really want to stick their neck out economically to further US hegemony in the region – and the American myth that freedom of commercial navigation is under threat.

Mark J. Valencia is an adjunct senior scholar at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, Haikou, China

(https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3124873/its-support-us-strategy- france-playing-fire-south-china-sea

Australia's third Hobart-class destroyer sets off for combat trials by Ridzwan Rahmat

HMAS Sydney (right) departing Fleet Base East for its combat systems trials. (Commonwealth of Australia)

The Royal Australian Navy’s (RAN’s) third Hobart-class air warfare destroyer (AWD) has set off for its combat systems trials, which will be conducted with the US Navy (USN).

The vessel, HMAS Sydney (42), departed home port at Fleet Base East, Garden Island, on 11 March for waters off the US west coast, where the trials will be conducted. “These tests are a crucial milestone in order for Sydney to be declared available for operational deployments,” reads a statement from Australia’s Department of Defence on the same day.

Sydney, which was commissioned in May 2020, is the final vessel in a three-ship programme to replace Australia’s Adelaide-class (US Oliver Hazard Perry design) guided-missile frigates. The first vessel, HMAS Hobart (39), was commissioned in September 2017, while the second warship, HMAS Brisbane (41), was inducted in October 2018.

The class has an overall length of 146.7 m, an overall beam of 18.6 m, and a hull draught of 4.9 m. It is powered by two General Electric LM2500 gas-turbine and two Caterpillar diesel engines in a combined diesel or gas (CODOG) configuration, and can attain a top speed of 28 kt, with a standard range of 5,000 n miles at 18 kts.

The warship incorporates the Aegis combat system, and its suite of sensors includes the Lockheed Martin and Raytheon AN/SPY 1D(V) phased-array radar and the Northrop Grumman AN/SPQ-9B surface search radar. The AWD’s weapons include a 48-cell MK 41 vertical launching system (VLS) that can fire Standard Missile-2 medium-range Block IIIA (SM-2MR Block IIIA), and SM-2MR Block IIIB long-range surface-to-air missiles at hostile aerial threats. This VLS can also launch the Raytheon RIM-162B Evolved Seasparrow Missile (ESSM).

(https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/australias-third-hobart-class- destroyer-sets-off-for-combat-trials

Australia’s F-35A Stealth Fighters Exercise With Destroyer HMAS Hobart

The Royal Australian Navy guided missile destroyer HMAS Hobart has joined forces with the Royal Australian Air Force's F-35A Lightning as part of Exercise TASMAN SHIELD 21.

Xavier Vavasseur 12 Mar 2021

Hosted annually, Exercise TASMAN SHIELD runs from 22 February to 12 March 2021, and brings together Navy’s DDG and aircraft from RAAF Bases Amberly, Edinburgh, Tindal and Williamtown to conduct simulated missions over the east coast of Australia. The exercise provided an opportunity for RAAF personnel to enhance and promote interoperability with Navy ships.

Australia’s department of defence picture. Australia has committed to 72 F-35A aircraft for three operational squadrons at RAAF Base Williamtown and RAAF Base Tindal, and a training squadron at RAAF Base Williamtown. The first F-35A aircraft was accepted into Australian service in 2018, with the first arriving in country in December that year. The first F-35A squadron, No. 3 Squadron, will be operational in 2021. All 72 aircraft are expected to be fully operational by 2023. The RAN’s three Hobart-class destroyers Hobart, Brisbane and Sydney are based on the Navantia designed F100 frigate and is coupled with the Aegis Combat System. They were constructed in Australia by the Air Warfare Destroyer Alliance. The Hobart-class provides air defence for accompanying ships in addition to land forces and infrastructure in coastal areas, and for self-protection against missiles and aircraft. The Aegis Combat System incorporating the phased array radar, AN/SPY 1D(V), in combination with the SM-2 missile, will provide an advanced air defence system capable of engaging enemy aircraft and missiles at ranges in excess of 150km.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/03/australias-f-35a-stealth-fighters- exercise-with-destroyer-hmas-hobart Two Biden-Era Flashpoints Where The F-35 Fighter Could Prove Decisive

Loren ThompsonSenior Contributor

Aerospace & Defense

I write about national security, especially its business dimension

With an unrefueled combat radius of nearly 700 miles and a range of 1,400 miles, stealthy Air Force ... [+] DVIDS

The F-35 fighter being bought for three U.S. military services and a dozen allies is going through one of its periodic rough patches with the political culture.

Although the price of the fighter is falling and its performance far surpasses that of legacy aircraft, the program is being questioned for what seem to be nebulous reasons.

As in past such controversies, the criticism is curiously disconnected from the real-world situations in which F-35 might need to be used.

The two most challenging such scenarios would be a Russian invasion of Eastern Europe or a Chinese attempt to forcibly occupy Taiwan.

Both scenarios could require the United States to fight far from home, on the doorstep of a major military power. If aggression succeeded in either place, it would realign global power relations in a way severely detrimental to the United States.

PROMOTED Civic Nation BRANDVOICE | Paid Program There And Back Again: Charting A Course For Student Success

UNICEF USA BRANDVOICE | Paid Program

How UNICEF Helps Out-Of-School Kids In Syria Get Back On Track

Grads of Life BRANDVOICE | Paid Program

Hiring Talent Without College Degrees: What It Really Takes

In Europe, a successful Russian invasion would confirm Moscow’s status as the dominant continental power.

In Asia, a successful Chinese occupation of Taiwan would enable Beijing to break out of the island chain constraining its navy, while absorbing the world’s leading producer of advanced microchips.

Although such crises might be confined to their respective regions, Thomas Wright of the Brookings Institution was undoubtedly correct when he told the Senate Armed Services Committee on March 2 that “if there is a major challenge to the international order, it is most likely to occur at the regional level.”

So, the United States must be able to respond decisively to such regional challenges— both to deter aggression and to defeat it if deterrence fails.

It is not hard to see how F-35 could provide the margin of victory in either place. Conversely, it is easy to see how the absence of F-35 could lead to U.S. defeat and a huge setback to America’s global standing.

Europe. In an unguarded moment several months after he annexed Crimea in 2014, Russian leader Vladimir Putin observed that his nation’s military could occupy any Eastern European capital within two days.

He was probably right. Several of those capitals are barely a day’s drive from Russia, and western allies have greatly reduced their military presence in the region since the Cold War ended. The forces of Moscow’s former satellites are no match for the steadily modernizing Russian military.

As NATO scrambled to develop responses to a resurgent Russia, the danger that most concerned U.S. Army planners was the loss of air dominance over Eastern Europe.

Russia had deployed a host of new air defense weapons such as the S-400 surface-to- air missile in places like Kaliningrad that could cover the entire region. The Cold War fighters of European allies were vulnerable to Russia’s ground-based air defenses, not to mention its new tactical aircraft.

However, the arrival of the F-35 in Europe transforms this balance, because its stealthy design cannot be tracked or targeted by Russian radar. Russian long-range search radars might briefly detect F-35s in the distance, but at the wavelengths that matter most, the fighter might as well be invisible.

With nearly a thousand F-35s available to NATO allies by mid-decade, Russia’s air force and ground-force aviation units would be wiped out during the early days of conflict—just as adversary forces are dispatched today in military exercises where F-35 routinely kills enemies at a rate of 20-to-1.

Russia’s surface-to-air missiles and radars would be similarly hobbled, not only because they can’t see the F-35s but because the fighter is six times better at suppressing hostile air defenses than legacy aircraft.

This can be accomplished using both kinetic munitions and non-kinetic means such as jamming. The F-35’s electronic warfare system has ten times the radiated power of previous jammers, and its multispectral reconnaissance system can find and classify virtually any type of emitter. So F-35s operated by the U.S., United Kingdom, Italy, Norway, Poland and other countries would turn the tables on a resurgent Russia. Russian forces would be naked to attack from above, with F-35s delivering a range of precision missiles and munitions against every target of interest.

It would not take long before F-35s so thoroughly degraded Russian capabilities that even the non-stealthy fighters of western nations would be able to act with relative impunity. Knowing this, Moscow is likely to be deterred from ever launching an invasion in the first place.

Taiwan. The Economist warned on February 20 that “America is losing its ability to deter an attack on Taiwan.” Only days later, the head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command speculated in congressional testimony that Beijing might mount military action against the island nation “within the next six years.”

If such action were successful in securing control of the island, it would probably signal the end of U.S. military dominance in the Western Pacific. Taiwan occupies a strategic position in the first island chain off China’s coast, which is central to both Washington’s and Beijing’s strategy for the region.

I wrote a September commentary for Forbes explaining why Taiwan has become the “geographical pivot point of history” in the Pacific Century. The problem for Washington, though, is that it hasn’t had forces on the island since diplomatically recognizing Beijing as the legitimate government of all China in 1979.

As far as Beijing is concerned, Taiwan is a renegade province that one way or another will one day be assimilated into Greater China. If that requires force, then Beijing will use force. The Fujian coast a hundred miles across the Taiwan Strait bristles with missiles aimed at the island, and China’s navy is growing at a pace that may soon enable it to blockade the island in preparation for an amphibious landing.

Washington is not committed by treaty to defend Taiwan, but the island nation’s military strategy assumes that it will if China mounts an invasion.

The F-35 is likely to figure prominently in any American military response, thanks to its aforementioned survivability, versatility and lethality. The U.S. could quickly deploy Air Force, Navy and Marine variants to Taiwan, each contributing unique fighting capabilities to a defensive campaign.

For instance, the Marine variant does not require an airstrip due to its vertical ascent/descent features, while the Navy version can transport bombloads to an unrefueled combat radius of nearly 700 miles—far into the Chinese interior if necessary to suppress attackers.

Assuming a timely response by Washington, the F-35 in combination with other friendly ground, airborne and seaborne forces could quickly reduce any amphibious force seeking to cross the strait.

While Taiwan might be able to hold out long enough for U.S. forces to arrive in quantity, Beijing has such great strategic depth adjacent to Taiwan that the U.S. likely would not be able to prevail in the absence of numerous, stealthy strike fighters.

U.S. long-range bombers would be hard-pressed to sustain operations across the vast distances of the Pacific, and U.S. naval vessels would need to be cautious in their positioning. But given their intrinsic flexibility, the rapid deployment of hundreds of highly survivable F-35s in and around Taiwan would probably be the single most critical step in defending the island. https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/aspi-broadens-its-focus-on-northern-australia/

Five Chinese companies pose threat to U.S. national security: FCC

By David Shepardson

Jessica Rosenworcel testifies during an oversight hearing held by the U.S. Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee to examine the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), in Washington, U.S. June 24, 2020. Alex Wong/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) on Friday designated five Chinese companies as posing a threat to national security under a 2019 law aimed at protecting U.S. communications networks.

The FCC said the companies included Huawei Technologies Co, ZTE Corp, Hytera Communications Corp, Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co and Dahua Technology Co.

A 2019 law requires the FCC to identify companies producing telecommunications equipment and services “that have been found to pose an unacceptable risk to U.S. national security.”

ADVERTISEMENT

Acting FCC Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel said in a statement: “This list provides meaningful guidance that will ensure that as next-generation networks are built across the country, they do not repeat the mistakes of the past or use equipment or services that will pose a threat to U.S. national security or the security and safety of Americans.”

The 2019 law used criteria from a defense authorization bill that previously identified the five Chinese companies. In August 2020, the U.S. government issued regulations barring agencies from buying goods or services from any of the five Chinese companies.

In 2019, the United States placed Huawei, Hikvision and other firms on its economic blacklist.

ADVERTISEMENT

Last year, the FCC designated Huawei and ZTE as a national security threat to communications networks - a declaration barring U.S. firms from tapping an $8.3 billion government fund to purchase equipment from the companies. In February, Huawei challenged the declaration in a petition filed with the Fifth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. Huawei declined to comment on Friday on the new FCC designation. The other four companies did not comment or could not be reached for comment.

The FCC in December finalized rules requiring carriers with ZTE or Huawei equipment to “rip and replace” that equipment. It created a reimbursement program for that effort, and U.S. lawmakers in December approved $1.9 billion to fund the program.

(https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-tech/five-chinese-companies-pose-threat- to-u-s-national-security-fcc-idUSKBN2B42DW

Five Chinese firms, including Huawei and ZTE, designated as threats to US national security

Hikvision, Hytera Communications and Dahua Technology were also listed by the Federal Communications Commission under a law to protect US communication networks

The regulator last year finalised rules requiring US carriers with ZTE or Huawei gear to ‘rip and replace’ that equipment

Owen Churchill in United States Published: 4:37am, 13 Mar, 2021 Why you can trust SCMP 28

In February, Huawei challenged a previous declaration by the FCC declaring the company a US national security threat. Photo: Bloomberg

A United States government regulator overseeing the communications industry labelled five Chinese telecommunications companies a “threat to national security” on Friday, including Huawei Technologies and ZTE Corp.

Announcing the designation, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) said that telecommunications products and services provided by the companies posed “an unacceptable risk to US national security or the security and safety of US persons.”

Included alongside Huawei and ZTE in the list were Hytera Communications Corp, Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology, and Dahua Technology Co.

Such designations, which will extend to subsidiaries and affiliates of the targeted entities, are required under the Secure and Trusted Communications Networks Act of 2019.

(https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3125296/five-chinese-firms-including- huawei-and-zte) Homeless man roams air base housing Biden's plane for five hours

PUBLISHED : 12 MAR 2021 AT 08:45 WRITER: AFP

US President Joe Biden boards Air Force One, the presidential aircraft, at Joint Base Andrews south of Washington WASHINGTON - A homeless man spent five hours last month freely roaming the military base where the US president's plane is kept, after easily passing through several layers of security, the Air Force admitted Thursday.

The Air Force inspector general said in a report on the February 4 incident that the unauthorized intruder at Joint Base Andrews made his way onto a C-40 transport plane on the tarmac, but did not get close to Air Force One or the secretary of defense's dedicated Boeing 747s.

The base, just south of Washington, is where the president, defense secretary, and other top officials fly from for official business.It is also the arrival point for visiting VIPs like foreign heads of state.

• Troubling claim • 'Nomadland' director faces backlash in native China • Beijing making Hong Kong elections surprise-free

For that reason security is always tight.

Yet the unidentified man was able to drive onto the base and spend five hours there at a food court, in the VIP terminal, and elsewhere before he drew attention.

That was despite signs he did not know where he was, and his unique appearance: "On his head, he had a bright red or pink cap that partially covered his ears and had distinctive balls on top that looked a little like mouse ears," according to the otherwise heavily redacted report. The inspector general faulted first a guard at the main gate who, distracted by personal problems and obstructed by Covid-19 practices, let the man through despite his lack of valid credentials.

In a second failure, the man walked onto the tarmac due to a malfunctioning automatic gate.

In a third breach, he boarded the C-40, seen but ignored by two aircrew undergoing training.

After he got off the aircraft he returned to the terminal where his suspicious behavior finally drew attention. Security officers arrested him.

Air Force Inspector General Sami Said assured that the man never got close to Air Force One, parked at a distant location and protected by more intense layers of security.

The report concluded that the man was homeless, lived in his car, and despite an extensive arrest record showed no intent to do harm.

During questioning, he simply said "he came on base because he wanted to see airplanes," according to the report https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2082595/homeless-man-roams-air-base-housing-bidens-plane-for-five- hours)

Intruder at Air Force One base given up by ‘mouse ears’ after wandering around for hours

Homeless man roams airbase housing Joe Biden’s plane for five hours

He wore a cap with distinctive balls that looked a little like mouse ears

Agencies

Published: 11:08am, 12 Mar, 2021 Why you can trust SCMP

The Boeing 747 that serves as Air Force One for presidential travel was not at risk, investigators said.

In a highly unusual breach of security last month at the airbase that operates the Air Force One presidential aircraft, an apparently aimless intruder went undetected for several hours and walked on and off a plane on the flight line before his quirky headgear gave him away.

He was wearing what a US Air Force investigative report released Thursday described as “a bright red or pink cap that partially covered his ears and had distinctive balls on top that looked a little like mouse ears”.

An airman in the operations office at Joint Base Andrews, located in Maryland just outside Washington, saw the man on the flight line and became suspicious, partly because of the headgear, and called security. Officials said he never got close to Air Force One. https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3125119/intruder-air- force-one-base-given-mouse-ears)

US Coast Guard looks to expand unmanned operations by Michael Fabey

Having benefitted from the deployment of ScanEagle unmanned aerial systems (UASs) aboard its National Security Cutters (NSCs), the US Coast Guard (USCG) is now looking at future unmanned surface vessel operations.

“Last [year], our Research and Development Center tested the ability of unmanned surface vessels to augment traditional ship and aviation capabilities for operations in the far reaches of the Pacific Ocean,” Admiral Karl Schultz, USCG commandant, said on 11 March during his annual State of the Coast Guard address. https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/us-coast-guard-looks-to-expand- unmanned-operations)

New crime-fighting network to help ASEAN tackle cross-border cases Japan and UN back effort to combat traffickers and cyberthieves in time of COVID

A police officer arranges seized drugs in Bangkok in 2018: The region's governments hope better communication will help tackle cross-border crimes including smuggling. © Reuters KOJI NOZAWA, Asia business news editor of Nikkei AsiaMarch 12, 2021 12:10 JST

KYOTO -- Ten Southeast Asian countries have established a new framework to fight cross-border criminal activity, from human trafficking to cybercrime, amid fears that COVID-19 has created more fertile ground for lawbreakers. https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/us-coast-guard-looks-to-expand- unmanned-operations

Royal Malaysian Navy Launches ScanEagle UAS Squadron

The Royal Malaysian Navy (RMN) on 4 March 2021 launched its first ever Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) Squadron. The newly created "Squadron 601" will operate the Insitu ScanEagle UAS.

Xavier Vavasseur 12 Mar 2021

The Squadron inauguration ceremony took place at Kota Kinabalu Air Station in presence of the RMN’s Chief of Navy, Admiral Tan Sri Mohd Reza bin Mohd Sany and U.S. Embassy Defense Attaché Captain Muhammad Muzzafar Feroze Khan. For the record, the RMN took delivery of the first batch of six ScanEagles (along with 2 launchers, 2 skyhooks and 3 Ground Control Stations) in May last year. They were donated by the United States under the Maritime Security Initiative (MSI) programme. Boeing subsidiary Insitu was awarded a $48 million contract for 34 ScanEagle unmanned air vehicles for Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam, according to a U.S. Department of Defense contract announcement issued on May 31, 2019. The contract states that 12 UAVs are meant for the RMN. Funded by the United States, the ScanEagles are to be delivered by 2022 for a price of $19,329,334. In addition, this order provides for spare payloads, spare and repair parts, support equipment, tools, training, technical services, and field service representatives.

“The operation of UAS will give an advantage to RMN in terms of Intelligence, Survillance, Reconaissance (ISR) throughout the country’s waters as well as increase the current maritime domain awareness (MDA). A 12-month operational training guided by representatives of the Boeing-Insitu company was started by the 601 Squadron operations crew and the inaugural flight of the ScanEagle aircraft was successfully implemented on 5 February 2021.”

“For over 60 years the U.S. and Malaysia have shared a productive and mutually beneficial security cooperation partnership, and I am glad to see that continuing today.

These UAS will enhance the Royal Malaysian Navy’s ability to defend Malaysia’s territorial integrity. An additional 12 ScanEagle systems will be handed over to the

Malaysian government later this year.”

(https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/03/royal-malaysian-navy-launches- scaneagle-uas-squadron/

Taiwan’s cabinet reshuffle a response to China’s ‘unrestricted warfare’ 12 Mar 2021|Cory Lee Bell

Last month, Taiwan’s government announced several personnel changes in leadership positions in its defence and security team, including the key posts of defence minister and National Security Bureau director.

While at least one of these changes had been months in the making, the fact that several occurred concurrently, and were announced just after the Chinese New Year break, has prompted conjecture that certain recent developments have prompted a shift in the island’s strategic thinking.

Many suspect that the changes were in response to the election of Joe Biden as US president, who some Taiwanese politicians believe won’t be as staunch in his support of Taipei as President Donald Trump was. Perhaps unsurprisingly, some opposition politicians have strengthened their calls for the independence-leaning government of President Tsai Ing-wen, which has thus far adopted a hardline position towards the mainland, to now adopt a more conciliatory stance towards Beijing.

But that’s just one way to look at it. An alternative theory is that the reshuffle reflects the administration’s attempts to confront the growing challenges posed by China’s model of ‘unrestricted warfare’, which replaces a narrow focus on kinetic warfare with a wider array of options, including ‘grey zone’ tactics, lawfare, political warfare and economic leverage.

To understand why this may be the case, it’s useful to examine the personnel changes in more detail.

First, the selection of Chiu Kuo-cheng as the new defence minister represents an anomaly. Prior to assuming this role, Chiu was serving as the director of the National Security Bureau. Given the breadth of his expertise and contacts in the intelligence community, local analysts assume Chiu will set a new precedent for the role of defence minister by concomitantly managing defence affairs and coordinating with NSB sources to exercise direct oversight of the Military Intelligence Bureau.

Until now, these roles had been strictly segregated. The reason for this was a longstanding fear that a minister with direct access to both defence and national security intelligence resources would effectively have monopoly control over all the intelligence resources that reach the president. Presidents on both sides of the political divide have preferred to have the freedom to draw on a wide variety of sources and viewpoints, which places them in a better position to exercise executive discretion.

Why, then, was Chiu chosen? A plausible reason is that China’s ‘unrestricted warfare’ model has confounded the conventional dichotomy between kinetic and information warfare. And if grey-zone activity, rather than outright invasion, is China’s preferred approach to achieving ‘reunification’, Taiwan’s defence strategies, and not only its tactics, will need to be more immediately responsive to up-to-the-minute intelligence and analyses. Put another way, the defence of the island perhaps no longer entails simply determining the when and where of an invasion, but requires an evolving and dynamic understanding of what counts as warfare, and how it may be prosecuted.

For example, some Taiwanese analysts contend that the ever-growing frequency of People’s Liberation Army Air Force flyovers of Taiwanese airspace is aimed at weakening the island’s defences through attrition (for example, by forcing Taiwan’s smaller number of jets into maintenance or increasing the accident rate due to pilot fatigue). However, if Taiwan limited its responses to incursions to mitigate this problem—as reportedly recommended by US military figures—it could cede de facto control of patches of airspace to Beijing. That could be a precursor to an extension of the Chinese air defence identification zone deeper into the island’s territory, and possibly even lead to the PLAAF expelling Republic of China Air Force assets from their own airspace. This is but one example of how up-to-the-minute access to multiple intelligence sources could mitigate the risk of tactical victories morphing into strategic blunders.

A similar appraisal can be made of the ascension of Chen Ming-tong to the position of head of the NSB. Chen is an ‘old China hand’ who had shifted directly from a position of minister of the Mainland Affairs Council. This shift, when added to the fact that Chen doesn’t have a military or intelligence background, makes his selection highly unconventional.

Why, then, would someone like Chen be chosen? One explanation is that a recent challenge for the NSB has been not only finding threats to Taiwan’s sovereignty, but identifying and defining them. There are growing concerns over issues like media ownership, foreign investment, political lobbying, disinformation campaigns, and even unmanned drone use. Such is the anxiety at the new threats Beijing poses that Taipei has adopted firm measures some have criticised as draconian, including the five national security laws and the Anti-Infiltration Act.

The advantage of bringing a ‘China hand’ into a leadership position in the NSB under these circumstances is that, while he may know less about how to gather intelligence on threats, he will probably know more about how those who devise them think, and where such threats may be found.

These convention-defying changes could be viewed as part of the Tsai administration’s second, and perhaps more profound, wave of defence reforms. The first reform, the adoption of the overall defence concept, marked the shift to an asymmetric doctrine that belatedly acknowledged and adapted to the loss of the balance of power across the Taiwan Strait. However, the core of that strategy still revolved around recognising the centrality of the ‘invasion scenario’ in defence thinking.

To the extent that the new personnel changes mark a response to China’s ‘unrestricted warfare’ model, they perhaps reflect a transformation from Taiwan’s defence brass preparing for the war they fear to adapting to the new types of warfare that are already being waged.

While it remains to be seen how these changes will pan out, the concept of realigning defence and intelligence to prioritise those threats and scenarios China prefers appears, in theory at least, to be the right approach for the tiny island to better marshal its limited resources. It should also offer food for thought for other nations in the region and Taiwan’s more distant middle-power allies.

(https://breakingdefense.sites.breakingmedia.com/2021/03/retaliation-options-us-cyber-responses-to- solarwinds-exchange-hacks/?_ga=2.29848191.1550869102.1615505741-1889943733.1611096689)

For Taiwan, a wake-up call from a war far away

Taiwan may have its own army, but if and when mainland Chinese forces land on the island, it will have little chance of escaping defeat

Published: 7:00pm, 12 Mar, 2021 Why you can trust SCMP

Taiwanese sailors salute the island’s flag on the deck of the Panshih supply ship after taking part in annual drills, at the Tsoying naval base in Kaohsiung, in January 2018. Photo: AFP In November 2020, after the Azerbaijani forces captured Shusha city from the Armenians, Armenia was forced to sign a ceasefire agreement , returning seven occupied districts to Azerbaijan. For people outside the Caucasus, what did the war teach us?

Before the war, the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast together with seven adjacent districts was not under Azerbaijan’s rule but ruled by an Armenia-backed regime called “the Republic of Artsakh”, which is not recognised by any UN member state.

(https://www.scmp.com/comment/letters/article/3125035/taiwan-wake-call-war-far-away

Now Is the Time To Think About the Character of Our Armed Forces

Speculation about President Biden’s defense budget began before his election. With broadening military challenges from China, Russia, and Iran, the question is vital: On 8

February, Russia’s state-run news agency quoted Moscow’s ambassador to Iran, Levan Dzhagaryan who announced that China, Russia, and Iran would hold multilateral naval exercises in the Indian Ocean. The exercises are a small sign that the budget, size, design, and training of U.S. military forces are more important today than at any time since the Cold War’s end 30 years ago. No less fundamental is the character of the U.S. armed forces.

The U.S. military’s institutional inertia is notorious. After the Soviet Union’s collapse, the U.S. military lacked an overarching strategic concept. The Gulf War’s apparent lessons — “jointness”, precision strike, and the primacy of airpower — were pressed into service. And the military has atrophied. It adapted out of necessity to a decade of counterinsurgency operations. But operational competence is no substitute for strategic clarity. Discussion of “uncertainty” and “danger,” vague terms used to preclude concrete identification of future adversaries and logical explication of strategy, force structure, and doctrine, defined theoretical debate and service discussion.

However, a paradigm shift has occurred over the past four years. The COVID-19 Pandemic has only confirmed that China is a hostile, predatory power, willing to manipulate, bully, and bribe in equal measure to achieve its objectives. And its objectives are increasingly clear. At a minimum, China wishes to conquer Taiwan, humble Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, and India, and become the predominant power in the Western Pacific. China plans to achieve at least a portion of its objective through force. To secure American security, economic, and great power interests, the U.S. military must therefore prepare to fight a shooting war with a nuclear-armed adversary. Using such expressions as “great-power competition” or “strategic rivalry” helps shape the problem but are not substitutes for the strategy needed to win great power competition.

The critical service in this conflict is the U.S. Navy. This stems from geography and likely American strategy. China’s objectives in the main are not physical or territorial. But controlling the chokepoints that provide access to the Indo-Pacific requires China to project power over significant distances, almost entirely by sea. Moreover, China’s territorial objectives that would facilitate these goals are various specific islands, most notably Taiwan, but also locations claimed by Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines.

Hostilities between the U.S. and China would be a sea war in the truest sense: victory at sea will have a decisive impact upon the outcome. Additionally, if the U.S. hopes to leverage allied capabilities, it must control the maritime route between the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific, both through the Suez and the Panama Canals. This will require not only control of international chokepoints, but also a fleet large and diverse enough to protect allied shipping and neutralize Chinese submarines that leak out beyond the Second Island Chain.

(https://www.realclearpolicy.com/articles/2021/03/12/now_is_the_time_to_think_about_t he_character_of_our_armed_forces_767819.html

A BLUEPRINT FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE’S STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

KATE GUY AND ERIN SIKORSKY

One could be forgiven for thinking that a rising China is the only threat that the Department of Defense is preparing to confront. China is referred to as the “pacing threat” by senior defense officials, and the top news out of President Joe Biden’s inaugural visit to the Pentagon last month was a new “sprint effort” to review the U.S. approach to China. In that same visit, the president called on the Department of Defense to “rethink” and “reprioritize” security to meet the challenges of the 21st century, including climate change — but it was the China threat that got the “task force” moniker and a named leader that day. Yet in its “Executive Order on Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad,” the administration mandated that climate change must now be at “the center of our national security and foreign policy,” a mandate reflected in newly released national security and defense guidance. To that end, the executive order directs the Department of Defense to prepare a comprehensive new “Climate Risk Analysis” in just 120 days — on the same timeline as the China sprint. This analysis, meant to examine the long-term, strategic security risks posed by climate change, demands at least equal investment and attention as the China effort.

Unlike with China, however, the bench of climate security experts in the Department of Defense is appallingly thin, given the lack of focus on the issue under the previous administration. While it is true that throughout the presidency of Donald Trump the Department of Defense was one of the few places in the federal government making progress on climate change policy, most of this progress was focused on nearer-term risks to military bases and infrastructure, not overarching strategy. The public summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy mentioned China 12 times, climate change zero. The Department of Defense will need to quickly build capacity and get up to speed to be able to deliver the sweeping new strategic efforts called for by the new president.

BECOME A MEMBER

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin appears to understand the importance of climate change to the core defense mission, declaring “there is little about what the Department does to defend the American people that is not affected by climate change.” Nevertheless, the fanfare surrounding the China announcement shows how quickly the U.S. national security community can revert to traditional conceptions of security risks. Under competing pressures, it will be all too easy for the department to fall back on old habits, remaining narrowly focused on the near-term risks of climate change to military infrastructure and equipment, while deprioritizing the full-picture strategic climate analysis that is needed. This would be a mistake. We’ve written reports like this, and have both led groundbreaking efforts to analyze longer-term climate security risks in public reports and intelligence assessments. Our work shows that the biggest climate risks posed to U.S. national security extend well beyond direct physical impacts on military operations. Left unchecked, climate change effects such as severe heat and drought, more powerful and destructive storms, declining agriculture and rapidly spreading health risks, and multiple meters of global sea level rise will severely disrupt political stability in countries around the world and exacerbate risks of conflict. The issue also cannot be separated from geopolitical competition, with climate change influencing the behavior of competitors and adversaries like China and Russia. Based on our experiences, we propose some basic parameters for the Department of Defense as it begins its climate risk analysis: the what, who, when, where, and how of the assessment. Given the tight timeline for producing the report and the lack of existing expertise and capacity within the Department of Defense on the topic, without careful attention paid at the outset to crafting a product that is useful, accessible, and wide-ranging, the department risks developing a document that sits on a shelf, rather than building critical resilience where U.S. security forces need it.

First, what should be the focus of these assessments? Analyzing climate threats is a maddeningly large task, with complex layers of uncertainty and correlations to sift through. And while climate modeling is a critical piece of the process, this analysis should go far beyond the physical sciences to properly understand the dynamic nature of climate threats. The department should cast a wide net that includes security analysis, as well as an understanding of the social, political, economic, and technological impacts of climate change, to adequately assess how it will alter the security landscape. The climate risk analysis should also reflect a broad, nuanced understanding of national security and defense because climate change impacts are so wide-ranging. The push to widen the aperture of the national security definition is championed by the Biden administration, as shown in its interim national security strategic guidance, which puts the climate crisis, racial justice, and the global pandemic on par with the threats from China and Russia. This is a sharp departure from the previous administration, and traditional conceptions of the Defense Department’s areas of responsibility. Limited climate security analyses focused just on specific impacts to military infrastructure, for example, won’t capture the full spectrum of this broader definition.

Next, who should be involved in this effort? Addressing climate change in a way that’s commensurate to the threat will take ambitious collective action. So while the project should move quickly to meet the 120-day goal, it need not sacrifice inclusivity for speed. The team leading the risk assessment should include perspectives from across the Department of Defense, including the combatant commands, the services, the Joint Staff, and the Office of the Secretary of Defense. The report’s authors should also seek input early on from other national security agencies, such as the State Department and USAID, recognizing the cross-cutting nature of climate risks. The Department of Defense should also leverage insights from global allies and partners. In the past few years, NATO, the European Union, and the United Nations have all begun work on climate risks, and bodies like the International Military Council on Climate and Security have been created to identify key threats and best practices worldwide. The more the United States can do now to integrate input from its allies and partners into its risk assessments, the more informed and efficient work together will be in the future.

It’s also critical that the Department of Defense carefully select the when of this analysis. The report should take a longer view than many previous departmental assessments. This is not a unique approach for security threat assessments — a recent report on security developments related to China had a twenty-year time horizon. Such a long view is even more relevant when analyzing a phenomenon like climate change — experts understand how natural threats will likely develop many decades into the future, given the sophistication and accuracy of scientific climate modeling and the fact that a certain amount of warming is locked into place with current emissions. Additionally, from a security perspective, the likelihood of destabilizing threats rises as global temperatures rise. The climate risk analysis will thus be a painfully inadequate preparation for the world to come if it does not chart the security impacts of multiple warming scenarios (as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Center for Climate and Security’s Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change do), or if it ignores the potential devastation of “worst case” scenarios (see recent studies on underestimated sea level rise and ice melt). Preparing for and preventing the most disruptive risks requires including them in plans. Writing them off as unlikely gives American adversaries an uncontested field for their own long-term planning efforts.

Likewise, while examining global threats, where the experts aim their magnifying glass takes on great importance. This decade, we’ve seen how small developments like a new virus appearing in one corner of the globe can quickly affect all others. Climate risks operate on a similar level. As a recent study showed, a climate-change-associated heatwave in 2010 affected grain harvests in Russia and reverberated worldwide, ultimately contributing to price shocks in Egypt and across the Middle East in 2011. Thus, it’s crucial that the “national security” frame not limit analysis to just the United States or locations where the United States has a large footprint, such as the Indo-Pacific, Europe, or the Middle East. Most useful would be a global study broken down regionally, crafting a handy tool for American embassies and combatant commands to obtain more detail on a specific area, while also understanding the full picture of international security dynamics.

Finally, how should defense leaders undertake this analysis to create a product that stays useful into the future? Climate risk analysis should be an ongoing process for the Department of Defense. The recent establishment of the Climate Working Group, chaired by the secretary of defense, is a good step toward building longer-term capacity on these issues. This group should examine what types of tools and infrastructure are needed to institutionalize early-warning capabilities throughout the defense enterprise on climate risks. Austin and the working group should make serious efforts to ensure that climate change risk assessments become a key component of every decision-making process in the building, and that effective interagency processes are maintained to plan for and confront these risks. This includes rapidly expanding staff capacity across the department with expertise on climate and environmental issues, while ramping up training courses for leaders at all levels to get up to speed. Unlike many risks facing the world, climate change presents us with unprecedented opportunity to assess and map the security risks to come. In fact, in comparison to the threats posed by China or extremist groups, modern climate science gives incredible abilities to understand how and where environmental shocks are most likely to strike. And while security actors are briefed daily on each new piece of intelligence on traditional threats, quality research in the climate and environmental space is not yet regularly included in security assessments. The Department of Defense’s climate risk analysis presents a unique opportunity to make climate change analysis actionable and accessible for the entire security establishment. But this is a daunting endeavor, particularly in an institution that lacks staff expertise on climate security topics and is prone to prioritizing traditional security risks.

With the Biden administration throwing its weight behind these topics, the entire national security infrastructure is now mandated to center climate risks in its work like never before. It’s crucial to get these initial efforts right, and then make fully informed, strategic investments to protect current and future generations from the risks they describe. These investments should follow a “prepare and prevent” approach aimed at minimizing the impacts of those climate risks most likely to strike today, and rapidly decarbonizing to mitigate the threats of the future. Investments to prepare include institutionalizing mechanisms across the Department of Defense, including the combatant commands, to regularly collect, interpret, and act on climate security risk information, such as warnings of drought, sea level rise, or extreme heat in already fragile states. Preparing also includes ensuring the department has invested in the right equipment and training to manage a likely increase in humanitarian relief and disaster missions, as well as operations in more extreme environments. Prevention investments are those that cut emissions — the department can lead by example in the development and deployment of clean energy technologies.

Left unchecked, climate change has the potential to unravel the very foundations of U.S. defense and security. The good news is thanks to the nature of the threat, experts know more about the effects of climate change than they could ever know about the future behavior of an adversary state like China. It’s high time the United States started preparing for and preventing these escalating threats, with the same level of seriousness given to many other looming dangers. https://warontherocks.com/2021/03/a-blueprint-for-the-department-of-defenses- strategic-assessment-of-climate-change/

THE MARINE CORPS UNDER THE NUCLEAR SHADOW: A GREAT-POWER PROBLEM NATHAN FLEISCHAKER AND SHAWNA SINNOTT

Thus far the chief purpose of our military establishment has been to win wars. From now on its chief purpose must be to avert them. It can have almost no other useful purpose.

– Bernard Brodie, The Absolute Weapon: Atomic Power and World Order, 1946

We are not an across-the-Range of Military Operations (ROMO) force; but rather, a force that ensures the prevention of major conflict and deters the escalation of conflict within the ROMO.

– Gen. David H. Berger, Commandant’s Planning Guidance, 2019

“Design a force suited to the reality of the pacing threat.” “Shift in our primary focus to great power competition.” Phrases like these so permeate the U.S. Marine Corps’ discourse about its purpose and force design that they obscure a critical feature: nuclear weapons and the risk of inadvertent nuclear escalation by conventional forces. Today nuclear weapons are frequently discussed in the context of nuclear force modernization, arms control, and nonproliferation. However, most commentary on conventional force design, planning, and education in the Marine Corps rarely acknowledges the prospect of nuclear conflict. And even as other services grapple directly with nuclear forces when they mention conventional capability, it is inevitably from the perspective of deterrence and accounting for the challenge of tactical nuclear weapons.

Though it has been recognized for 75 years, nuclear weapons’ long shadow over the character and purpose of conventional operations remains a critical gap in the conversation about the Marine Corps’ future. And that future, as articulated in the last few years by the commandant, will be increasingly focused on China, a nuclear-armed power that is growing its current arsenal of several hundred nuclear warheads. The commandant’s Force Design 2030 makes necessary, if painful, changes in operational capabilities and concepts by replacing tanks, artillery, and end-strength with experimental units. However, these efforts have yet to directly account for the shadow that nuclear weapons cast on conventional operations and escalation management, and the resultant implications for Marine Corps force employment. Key elements of the Marine Corps culture — including aspects of its cherished warfighting doctrine — were developed in the post-Vietnam, late Cold War period when technology and the Corps’ expected mission informed assumptions that discounted the strategic effect of tactical operations. Today, among other changes, long-range precision fires and integrated command and control systems mean that these assumptions may be dangerous.

But the Corps has a rich history of adaptation within new strategic environments (e.g., small wars, amphibious operations, and maneuver warfare) that demonstrates the service’s ability to update and adjust foundational competencies. Adapting to a situation in which the risk of nuclear escalation is ever-present will require a service-wide effort to appreciate the strategic dimensions of tactical actions. This requires changes to not only operational planning and professional military education, but also doctrinal publications that influence the service’s culture and have reach at the individual, “every marine,” level.

Nuclear Weapons and Conventional Military Forces: Old Problem, New Challenge

America’s primary military rivals — China and Russia — possess nuclear arsenals with unthinkable destructive potential. This makes conflict with them especially risky since conventional operations can lead to inadvertent nuclear escalation. Thus, it may be necessary to impose restraint on tactical and operational freedom in U.S. war plans. Of course, this is not a new challenge, since the basic dynamics of nuclear deterrence were developed early in the Cold War. But the implications for conventional forces and limited war were never settled. Three decades of U.S. military operations in the Middle East — devoid of nuclear escalation dynamics — allowed American strategists to avoid the problem of planning conventional operations against nuclear-armed opponents.

While the assured destructive power of nuclear weapons undermines the credibility of threats to use them, states can manipulate the risk of nuclear use as a coercive tool. Conventional forces play a critical role in increasing this risk of (inadvertent) nuclear use — whether this is intentional or not. Confusion on a battlefield, or even a heightened alert posture, provides opportunities for unintended consequences. Especially concerning is entanglement (i.e., the mixing of conventional and nuclear command and control infrastructure, and platforms capable of both conventional and nuclear delivery). There is ample evidence that Chinese forces practice this and several U.S. platforms are intentionally “dual capable” (e.g., able to carry nuclear and/or conventional payloads). If conventional and nuclear systems are indistinguishable, actions intended to meet tactical objectives, such as conventional missile strikes to destroy air defense nodes, could be misinterpreted as a prelude to a nuclear attack, leading to nuclear retaliation. Military forces should therefore be prepared to operate when the strategic reality demands operational and tactical restraint. This presents a clear challenge to instincts in organizations like the Marine Corps that are honed for “creating and exploiting opportunity.”

Conventional forces also play an important role in denial, not just coercion. Here they need to be able to credibly deny an adversary its objectives, and forward-deployed Marine units can play a key role in such a strategy. But doing so requires the ability to wage a limited war conducted with forces that do not escalate beyond a certain point. In both brinkmanship and limited war, conventional forces need to be able to manage escalation by operating effectively even when inhibited by limitations on tactical and operational freedom. New Challenge for Marine Corps Culture

Restraints on tactical and operational freedom are especially challenging for the Marine Corps given its cultural emphasis on tactical operations. Many aspects of service culture are derived from an uncritical reading of the Corps’ premier doctrinal manual, Marine Corps Doctrinal Publication 1: Warfighting. The clearest example of this problem is seen in its definition of maneuver warfare:

… the essence of maneuver is taking action to generate and exploit some kind of advantage over the enemy … [it] seeks to shatter the enemy’s cohesion … [to] create a turbulent and rapidly deteriorating situation with which the enemy cannot cope.

The idea of violent and decisive action to incapacitate the enemy has visceral appeal, but in the context of nuclear weapons, can easily lead to disaster. Restraint and the ability to choose which advantages, based on strategic considerations, to not exploit may be more important.

Similarly, Marine Corps culture includes a philosophy of command that unreservedly endorses decentralization. Without question, decentralizing command and entrusting subordinate leaders is critical for tactical and operational effectiveness, especially in chaotic and challenging environments. But such advantages are not absolute and ignore situations such as inadvertent escalation. Warfighting’s justification for decentralization of command (“a competent subordinate commander who is at the point of decision will naturally better appreciate the true situation than a senior commander some distance removed”) ignores the possibility of an evolving strategic situation that the subordinate commander is poorly positioned to appreciate.

There is special irony here because as Warfighting was being written, the Marine Corps had units and doctrine for employing tactical nuclear weapons. Yet this doctrine explicitly assumed a high degree of centralized “positive command and control” and “established request and release procedures” to ensure that nuclear weapons were only used with presidential authorization. Precisely because centralization of command was assumed, nuclear capable units could largely ignore strategic concerns. The manual for employing nuclear weapons contains two paragraphs that mention policy or strategic considerations and devotes the remaining hundred pages to logistical, technical, and tactical factors such as transportation and storage, blast radii, minimum safe distances, and protecting friendly forces from fallout. Fortunately for Warfighting, external factors resolved the obvious contradiction when, shortly after its publication, President George H.W. Bush eliminated ground and naval non-strategic nuclear forces.

The base problem for the Marine Corps is its tendency to assume away strategic considerations. While Warfighting describes potent approaches to the conduct of war at the tactical or operational level, it would be unwise — even catastrophic —to uncritically use it to guide military operations against a nuclear-armed rival. But how did problematic assumptions in a doctrinal publication come to heavily influence the Marine Corps’ culture in the first place? Because Warfighting combines excellent conceptual chapters that channel Carl Von Clausewitz and John Boyd with practical chapters written for the problems of a particular historical period: post-Vietnam and the late Cold War. These latter chapters present tactical and operational concepts associated with great historical successes, but do so while ignoring strategic considerations. This was possible because the Marine Corps could effectively ignore nuclear weapons as it reinvented itself in the distinct strategic context of the late 1970s and 1980s.

As the ideas embodied in Warfighting were being developed, the Marine Corps was fighting for institutional survival, trying to find operational relevance by looking to operations in Northern Europe and using doctrine as a way to distinguish itself from other services. The “pacing threat” of that day was the Soviet Union, and the main contingency required marines to secure NATO’s northern flank. This was a defensive mission based on the premise that if the Soviets invaded Central Europe in a non-nuclear conflict of any duration, American reinforcements (arriving by sea) would be essential. But these reinforcements, and therefore NATO’s ability to continue its defense, would be vulnerable to interdiction from Soviet naval forces operating in the Norwegian Sea. Such Soviet operations, though, required control of Norway’s coast and therefore defending it acquired strategic importance. The geographic remoteness and political sensitivities of permanently stationing forces made the mission ideal for the Marine Corps to showcase the mobility inherent in amphibious operations. Critically, this mission presented limited risk of nuclear escalation for several reasons. First, the operational concept was premised on deterring Soviet aggression into Scandinavian countries, not directly threatening an existing Soviet interest. Second, marines were not expected to be the first to fight in the overall conflict and assumed an existing, non-nuclear, conventional war. The need to protect supply lines for reinforcements was only necessary if the main battlefield — Central Europe — had remained non-nuclear. Third, while amphibious operations provided great operational maneuver, given the technology of the day, marines lacked ground mobility. Combined with the geographic remoteness from major Russian cities, this mission posed little direct threat to the Soviet homeland. In short, key aspects of service doctrine and culture were optimized for an operational context that presented little risk of nuclear escalation and allowed the Marine Corps — far more than the other services — to largely ignore strategic considerations.

But that security environment is long gone. The Marine Corps’ current operational concept — forward deployed contact layer forces that are the first to engage with a nuclear-armed pacing threat’s aggressive action — is a radical departure from Marine Corps history (let alone the last thirty years focused on the non-nuclear powers in the Middle East). Basing a military culture on past assumptions that ignore strategic considerations is dangerous in any number of possible contemporary contingencies. Just as the Marines’ force design and posture need to change for a new environment — and the service’s leadership clearly embraces such change — so does its culture and warfighting doctrine.

Strength for Adapting: Marine Corps History and Ethos Although some aspects of contemporary Marine Corps culture may be inappropriate in today’s strategic nuclear context, the Corps’ history reflects a deeper, enduring ethos of institutional agility and innovation. The service has an uncanny ability to adapt to new strategic requirements and even a knack for temporarily learning to operate with limitations on tactical freedom. From developing amphibious doctrine in the 1930s, combined action platoons in Vietnam, maneuver warfare in the 1980s, and expeditionary sea-based forces in the modern era, the Marine Corps has repeatedly reinvented its core competencies (and modified its culture when necessary) to match the strategic environment and ensure continued relevance.

This adaptive propensity continues today. Force Design 2030, the service’s effort to reshape itself for the future, represents an institutional attempt to hone emerging competencies and capitalizes on the Marine Corps’ agility in flexing to strategic requirements. In addition to cutting capabilities such as tanks and field artillery to invest in rockets and unmanned vehicles, the Marines have embraced the information environment as a significant realm of competition in which they should participate. This bold direction and willingness to embrace new approaches to supporting U.S. national security has elicited sharp criticism and high praise. All of this demonstrates momentum toward meaningful transformation and a willingness to undertake painful changes.

Still, official efforts have thus far avoided considering nuclear dynamics, and only a fraction of commentary has even mentioned them. Incorporating these considerations will help the service to better assess cultural changes, conventional unit requirements, and the importance of developing proficiency in information, cyberspace, and space operations. More importantly, it will better position the service to reorient on the contemporary competition environment.

Current conditions call for operational and tactical restraint driven by the possibility of nuclear escalation in a conflict with China. However, this is not the only moment in the service’s history in which limitations on tactical freedom of action have been necessary. Over the past century, the Marine Corps has repeatedly demonstrated proficiency in adopting to situations of irregular warfare, from the small wars environments of the 1920s and 1930s to the counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency efforts of the modern era. In the more contemporary environments of Iraq and Afghanistan, the imperative to limit civilian casualties provides a significant example of tactical and operational forbearance required for strategic success. While these operations are often viewed as a temporary aberration from which the military needs to move on, the operational circumstances — and the restraint they demanded — were widely recognized at the time. Changes to training, education, and operational guidance, along with general (if imperfect) adherence to this guidance, demonstrated the Corps’ ability to recognize strategic factors and adapt. By contrast, today we see little discussion within the broader national security community addressing how the present reality may demand significant restraint in Marine Corps conventional operations.

Recommendations Marine Corps leadership recognizes that major changes are required to prevail in a military conflict with another great power. Recent official publications (e.g., the Commandant’s Planning Guidance, Force Design 2030, and Marine Corps Doctrinal Publication 1-4 Competing) and other initiatives (e.g., renewed emphasis on wargames, adjustments to the professional military education curriculum, and encouraging written debate) suggest that the service is serious about ensuring an institutional focus on competition with peers, especially China. In order to more adequately consider the dynamics of nuclear escalation and the role of Marine forces in this complex environment, the service should ensure that these efforts to reshape itself don’t only consider the tactical and operational challenges of fighting a comparable conventional military. They should also recognize the novelty of the Corps being the first to fight against a nuclear power. This requires an increased sensitivity to escalation management and, more generally, a willingness to reckon with a longstanding cultural assumption that marines can focus on tactical and operational issues with little consideration of their strategic implications. The Marine Corps can build on its historical ethos of adapting core competencies and culture to meet its present (nuclear) strategic challenges through the following actions:

First, the service should ensure the force is familiar with the strategic dynamics of escalation and coercion. The Marine Corps has made an excellent start with the recently released Competing, but this document ignores nuclear weapons and provides an inadequate discussion of the logic behind deterrence and escalation. An update that better addresses these topics would make them accessible and disseminatable to decision-makers at all levels of the service. This is especially important given the emphasis on distributed operations in the “contact and blunt layers” where marines, forward-deployed near adversary forces, work to expose malign behavior and are ready to immediately respond to aggression. Here, junior leaders may be forced to make decisions with global consequences under the almost unimaginable stress of great-power war. Doctrinal updates should also incorporate revisions to Warfighting that re-envision the practical chapters for competition with nuclear-capable states. Such efforts present an opportunity for further collaboration with the U.S. Navy, as aspects of its culture and force design have been shaped by nuclear weapons for decades. Further engagement with these issues should be encouraged through writing competitions and incorporation into the curriculum at the Marine Corps’ institutions of higher learning. This offers the best opportunity for substantive learning and debate amongst the service’s future planners, commanders, and staff officers.

Second, the Marine Corps should identify strategic dynamics within existing operational planning processes. The design process and problem-framing step in planning provide a basic framework but should place greater emphasis on appreciating the implications of the strategic environment. Additionally, wargames could incorporate a “strategic cell” that, similar to enemy-focused red cells, specifically focuses on nuclear dynamics to ensure they are not overlooked.

Third, the Corps should increase its emphasis on developing units that can coordinate with and support interagency partners, in order to enhance and leverage their capabilities. This would be a “strategic level of combined arms” that appreciates how the character and purpose of military operations are often conditioned on other aspects of the national security apparatus flexing levers of influence. While this context may not always be apparent to individual units, understanding it is crucial to ensuring that military operations complement the nation’s holistic interactions with a nuclear-capable state. The Marines have already begun to demonstrate proficiency in an integrated approach, providing a proof of concept for future initiatives, and the service should consider assigning more marines to integrate with partner organizations and interagency forums.

Operating Under the Nuclear Shadow

For the first time in decades, the Marine Corps needs to prepare for warfare against nuclear-armed adversaries. Competition and managing escalation with nuclear states requires tactical and operational restraint. As it increasingly prepares for tensions with China in the Indo-Pacific, the Marine Corps will have to reconcile its service culture, historical ethos, and strategic role to fit a new strategic environment. This won’t be easy. But the Corps’ history of adaptation demonstrates that the service has the foundation to become as effective in the future as it has been in the past.

https://warontherocks.com/2021/03/the-marine-corps-under-the-nuclear-shadow-a- great-power-problem/

Cocky? Why China Thinks Its Military Can Now Win Any War by Zachary Keck

Here's What You Need to Remember: The overwhelming belief that the PLA would prevail in a conflict with the United States in the East or South China Seas could make it easier for Chinese leaders to gain support for aggressive policies. At the same time, it could very well make Party leaders more weary of actually initiating a conflict, given the domestic repercussions for them if China is defeated.

(https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/cocky-why-china-thinks-its-military-can-now-win- any-war-180136

The U.S. carrier fleet is being increasingly challenged in the Pacific.

Could China Spell the End for U.S. Navy Aircraft Carriers? by TNI Staff

Here's What You Need to Remember: There are probably ways to break the Chinese kill chain using electronic or cyber-warfare that would allow a carrier strike group to fight inside the DF-26’s range.

The U.S. Navy’s carrier fleet is increasingly challenged in the Western Pacific as China continues its efforts develop anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities. Some of those systems include the infamous DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile and Xian H-6K bomber armed with advanced air launched cruise missiles.

Many here in Washington believe that the solution to the problem is to increase the range of the carrier air wing so that the ship could standoff 1200 nautical miles offshore. That distance would allow the carrier to remain outside the range of Chinese A2/AD systems. The Navy would accomplish that task by developing a new class of unmanned long-range broadband all-aspect stealth aircraft that could penetrate even the most dense air defenses.

However, there is one potential hiccup with that solution. The Chinese are more than capable of building even longer ranged anti-ship ballistic missiles or cruise missiles. Indeed, China seems to have already done that with the introduction in recent months of the DF-26 “carrier killer” missile. U.S. Naval War College professor and TNI contributor Andrew Erickson wrote in September that the new missile might have a range as great as 2,500 miles.

Granted just because China displayed the DF-26 missile publicly during its recent VJ Day parade doesn’t mean they have all of the sensors and networks to form a working kill chain for the weapon, but it does mean that the open ocean might not be as safe as many have presumed. If China does have the means to locate a carrier strike group near the DF-26’s maximum range and the ability to feed accurate targeting data to the weapon, it means that even a naval unmanned combat aircraft with mission radius of 1,500 nautical miles wouldn’t keep the carrier out of harm’s way. (https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/could-china-spell-end-us-navy-aircraft-carriers- 179913) Surging COVID-19 cases may soon strain private hospitals

Published March 12, 2021, 7:41 PM by Analou De Vera

Private hospitals may reach full capacity soon if the rise in the number of new coronavirus cases “is not abated,” the Private Hospitals Association of the Philippines Inc. (PHAP) said Friday, March 12.

PHAP President Dr. Jose Rene De Grano said there is at least a 15-percent hike in the number of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) patients being admitted in private hospitals.

“There is an increase at least 15 percent in our admissions although most of the cases are mild cases but there are some hospitals who have serious or critical cases, and these are usually at the urban centers like NCR (National Capital Region) and in Cebu,” said De Grano in an interview with ABS-CBN News Channel.

ADVERTISEMENT “If we don’t do anything about it, most probably it will follow the trend, maybe in the next three or four weeks, if this is not abated, then we will be reaching full capacity in the next four weeks because the trend is going up right now,” he added.

De Grano expressed hope that medical frontliners would not call for another “timeout” which happened in August last year due to a surge in cases then.

“Hopefully not, but then that can happen. But of course with strict health protocols, we’ll be able to avoid that,” he said.

De Grano also supported the recent move of Metro Manila mayors to enforce a unified curfew to curb the surging cases of COVID-19.

(https://mb.com.ph/2021/03/12/surging-covid-19-cases-may-soon-strain-private- hospitals/)

Philippines secures $900 mn in loans from World Bank, ADB for Covid-19 vaccines Despite recording one of the highest number of coronavirus cases in the region, the Philippines is playing catchup with some of its neighbours in vaccine procurement and was one of the last Southeast Asian nation to receive its first doses. Posted by Harshit Sabarwal | Reuters, Manila PUBLISHED ON MAR 12, 2021 09:43 AM IST The Philippines received on Friday a total of $900 million in loan commitments from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) for the purchase of Covid-19 vaccines and to help its pandemic-hit economy recover, the lenders said on Friday. Despite recording one of the highest number of coronavirus cases in the region, the Philippines is playing catchup with some of its neighbours in vaccine procurement and was one of the last Southeast Asian nation to receive its first doses. "Procuring and administering vaccines provides the country an added layer of defence against Covid-19 on top of public health measures," Ndiamé Diop, World Bank country director for Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand, said in a statement. The World Bank extended $500 million financing for the purchase and distribution of vaccines and to strengthen the country's health systems. In May, it extended a $500 million loan to provide relief to Filipinos who had lost jobs during lockdowns. Separately, the ADB allotted $400 million for the Philippines, the first recipient of its vaccine access support programme. The Philippines, which started its inoculation programme on March 1 with 600,000 Sinovac doses donated by China, is battling a renewed surge in Covid-19 cases. The country, which aims to inoculate 70 million of its more than 108 million population, is in talks with vaccine manufacturers to buy 161 million doses.

(https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/philippines-secures-900-mn-in-loans- from-world-bank-adb-for-covid-19-vaccines-101615521838098.html)

DOH and FDA: No pause in AstraZeneca vaccine rollout ByCLAUDETH MOCON-CIRIACO MARCH 13, 2021

In this file photo dated Thursday, Feb. 11, 2021, a health worker prepares a dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine to be administered in Fiumicino, near Rome's international airport. (AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino) The Department of Health (DOH) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Friday said there is no reason to halt the rollout of AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccines in the country, notwithstanding reports that some vaccinees in Denmark and Norway reportedly developed blood clots.

“At present, the DOH and FDA emphasize that there is no indication for the Philippines to stop [the] rollout of AstraZeneca vaccines. The DOH, National Task Force and FDA are closely coordinating on this matter,” the DOH explained.

To ease public concern and worry, the DOH assured they will “closely monitor all deployed vaccines.”

Both DOH and FDA admitted that they are aware that some countries in the European Union have recently paused their vaccination campaign with Covid-19 vaccine AstraZeneca. The latest country to follow suit, according to news wire reports, was Thailand.

“This has been decided as a precautionary measure while they conduct a full investigation to determine causality between the vaccination and the reported adverse events following immunization.”

Moreover, the European Medicine Authority (EMA) has also emphasized that there is currently no indication that vaccination has caused these conditions, which are not listed as side effects with this vaccine, saying, “The position of EMA’s safety committee— Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee [PRAC] is that the vaccine’s benefits continue to outweigh its risks and the vaccine can continue to be administered while investigation of cases of thromboembolic events is ongoing. It added that PRAC is already reviewing all cases of thromboembolic events and other conditions related to blood clots following inoculation.

(https://businessmirror.com.ph/2021/03/13/doh-and-fda-no-pause-in-astrazeneca- vaccine-rollout/)

Japan detects possibly more infectious mutated B.1.1.28 Covid variant from PH traveler

By: Gabriel Pabico Lalu - Reporter / @GabrielLaluINQ

INQUIRER.net / 01:47 AM March 13, 2021

FILE PHOTO: This undated transmission electron microscope image shows SARS-CoV- 2, also known as novel coronavirus, the virus that causes COVID-19, isolated from a patient in the U.S. NIAID-RML/Handout via REUTERS.

MANILA, Philippines — A mutated B.1.1.28 strain of the coronavirus that causes Covid- 19 was found by Japan’s National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) in a traveler that came from the Philippines, the agency announced on Friday.

According to a bulletin posted on NIID’s website, the said B.1.1.28 strain carries E484K and N501Y mutations — samples of which were obtained from a Covid-19 positive patient that came from the Philippines. ADVERTISEMENT

The mutations are said to be associated with increased transmissibility.

“The National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan, identified a B.1.1.28 strain with E484K and N501Y mutations from a SARS-CoV-2-positive sample collected on February 25, 2020 at a point of entry to Japan from a traveler from the Philippines […] These mutations are found in known VOCs (501Y.V2, 501Y.V3),” NIID said. “This variant isolate also has the P681H mutation in the spike protein as with B.1.1.7 lineage (VOC-202012/01) which is suggested to be associated with increased transmissibility,” it added. Japan’s NIID said that it is not sure whether this specific B.1.1.28 variant is the cause for the recent Covid-19 surge in the Philippines, but noted that it may be already be spreading undetected in the country.

Still, it warned that the impact of the said strain would be considered similar to the Covid- 19 variants of concern, as it carries the similar mutations found in the dreaded variants.

“This variant isolate does not meet the criteria of VOC as we do not know how widely this variant strain is spreading within the Philippines and whether this variant strain is associated with the recent increase in reported cases in the Philippines. However, this variant strain may be circulating in the Philippines at a certain level as the similar strain has been reported domestically and identified from travelers,” NIID explained.

“The potential public health impact from this variant strain shall be considered to be equivalent to those from known VOCs as this variant strain shares the same mutations of concern with VOCs,” it added.

During a briefing last Wednesday, University of the Philippines (UP) – Philippine Genome Center (PGC) Executive Director Dr. Cynthia Saloma said that the B.1.1.28 which originated from Brazil is not listed a variant of concern.

Currently, there are three Covid-19 variants of concern: the B.1.1.7 that came from the United Kingdom, the B.1.351 that traces to South Africa, and the P.1 from Brazil.

ADVERTISEMENT

However, Saloma also mentioned that the dreaded P.1 variant is actually the offspring — a mutated version of the B.1.1.28, both of which hails from Brazil.

“So we have to differentiate this one (P.1) po from the B.1.1.28 […] Actually po ‘yong P.1 na sinasabi nating Brazil variant of concern, kasi merong ibang Brazil variant din, this P.1 […] is anak po siya ng B.1.1.28. So sa Philippines po, wala pa po tayong P.1,” Saloma said. (So we have to differentiate this one (P.1) from the B.1.1.28. Actually this P.1 which we have classified as a Brazil variant of concern — because there are other Brazil variants also — is the offspring of the B.1.1.28. So in the Philippines, we still do not have the P.1.)

READ: PH Genome Center stresses: Brazil Covid variant of concern not yet here NIID also noted that the Philippines’ Department of Health found 34 cases with the two mutations.

“34 draft genome sequences of B.1.1.28 lineage with E484K/N501Y mutations have been uploaded to GISAID from the Philippines (1 sequence on February 26, 33 sequences on March 3),” NIID explained.

“The Department of Health, Republic of Philippines, published that they found 34 cases with E484K and N501Y mutations on March 2 (1),” it added.

Currently, Metro Manila is seeing a surge in Covid-19 cases — faster than earlier predicted, according to latest figures from OCTA Research. In its latest report, the analytics group said that new cases in Metro Manila have reached almost 2,000 11 days before they initially predicted.

Using the latest numbers, NCR may face 4,000 new cases daily by the end of March, way higher than the highest seven-day average reported last August 2020, which was at 2,690. https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1406417/japan-detects-possibly-more-infectious- mutated-b-1-1-28-covid-variant-from-ph-traveler#ixzz6oxXEElHt

US, India, Australia, Japan agree to send one billion vaccines across Asia by end-2022

By Alasdair Pal, Euan Rocha

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Leaders of the United States, India, Australia and Japan agreed to pool financing, manufacturing and distribution capacity to send 1 billion coronavirus vaccines across Asia by the end of 2022, India’s foreign secretary said on Friday.

FILE PHOTO:Syringes sit on a table where coronavirus disease vaccines are being administered during a two-day COVID-19 vaccination clinic inside the JBS Greeley Beef plant in Greeley, Colorado, U.S., March 5, 2021. Alex McIntyre/The Greeley Tribune/Pool

The so-called “Quad” group of four nations want to expand global vaccinations and counter China’s growing vaccination diplomacy in Southeast Asia and around the world. India is the world’s biggest vaccine maker.

The collaboration was “most pressing and valuable”, foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla told a news conference in India’s capital New Delhi after the four-way virtual summit.

“The four countries have agreed to a plan to pool their financial resources, manufacturing capabilities and capacities, and logistical strengths so as to ramp up the manufacturing and distribution of the COVID-19 vaccines in the Indo-Pacific region,” he said.

ADVERTISEMENT

“We believe this will speed up the process of post-pandemic recovery and enable families and businesses to put the COVID-19 crisis behind them.”

India will use its manufacturing capacity to make U.S. vaccines, with financing coming from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation and the Japan Bank for International Cooperation.

Australia will finance training and provide last-mile logistical support for the distribution of vaccines, he added, that will predominantly go to the Pacific Islands, Southeast Asia and countries in the Indian Ocean.

ADVERTISEMENT The initiative, however, may be hampered by U.S. export restrictions on critical raw materials for India’s vaccine supply chain.

Shringla said the issue is a bilateral one with the United States that has been raised by India’s ambassador in Washington.

“Consideration is being given to this very important point,” he said, without elaborating.

The tie-up will not impact the production of vaccines for India’s 1.4 billion people, Shringla added.

(https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-asia-vaccines/us-india-australia-japan-agree-to- send-one-billion-vaccines-across-asia-by-end-2022-idUSKBN2B42F4)

No evidence of Covid-19 leak from Wuhan lab, may have emerged from wildlife trade, say WHO scientists The experts said that they found a 'link' between the wet market in Wuhan, where people first fell ill, and neighbouring regions in South China where bats were found with viruses. Written by Joydeep Bose PUBLISHED ON MAR 12, 2021 12:21 PM IST The four World Health Organisation (WHO) scientific experts who travelled to China to probe the Covid-19 pandemic's origins said that contrary to conspiracy theories, there currently is no evidence that suggests the novel coronavirus 'leaked' from a Chinese laboratory in Wuhan. Instead, the most likely explanation is that the pandemic may have been caused by unfettered wildlife trade in the country, the experts said. Speaking at a virtual event hosted by the Chatham House think-tank, the experts said that they found a 'link' between the wet market in Wuhan, where people first fell ill, and neighbouring regions in South China where bats were found with viruses.

Dr Peter Daszak, zoologist and president of EcoHealth Alliance, a global nonprofit researching human, animal and environmental health, said, "There was a conduit from Wuhan to the provinces in South China, where the closest relative viruses [to the coronavirus] are found in bats.” It is thus possible that the virus crossed into domesticated and farmed animals and arrived in Wuhan on account of wildlife trade, he said. Dr Daszak was a part of the four-member expert team sent by WHO, along with Professor David Heymann, Professor Marion Koopmans, and Professor John Watson. Koopmans, the Head of the Department of Viroscience at Erasmus University Medical Center in Rotterdam, said that as part of their investigation, the team had also visited the three laboratories closest to the Huanan market in Wuhan and scrutinised their protocols and research. "We concluded that it’s extremely unlikely there was a lab incident,” she said." Incidentally, the three aforementioned laboratories, including the much talked about Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, have been the focus of several conspiracy theories and unfounded speculations on the origins of the virus, partly fueled by internet forums and imageboards playing the market for rumours. The incident was also heavily politicised in the US by the erstwhile Trump administration, which defunded the National Institutes of Health also blacklisted critical coronavirus research, which was going on in collaboration with the Wuhan labs. Addressing the issue of navigating this 'special politics' over the unfounded coronavirus origin speculations, Dr Daszak said that the scientific process related to the investigation offers a way to deal with this political intrigue. "This scientific process here -- which involves looking at data, analysing it, coming to conclusions about what it means, and making it public -- is extremely important because it allows you to do the work irrespective of the politics. There is a purity to this process, and in other scientists reacting to it. I find solace in that," he said. The United Nations' health agency worked for months to send an international team to Wuhan to help determine how the novel coronavirus first jumped from animals to humans. But in a tense geopolitical climate, the highly sensitive mission only landed on the ground this past January -- more than a year after the first cases were detected in the Chinese city in late 2019. The independent experts, who spent four weeks in Wuhan visiting sites linked to early cases, wrapped up their mission last month without conclusive findings. The team, which has stressed this was just a first stage in the process, is expected to publish a report with their full findings next week. https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/no-evidence-of-covid-19-leak-from-wuhan- lab-say-who-scientists-101615529203740.html

AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine use halted in several EU countries. What do we know so far On Friday, Bulgaria became the latest country to suspend inoculations using AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine. By hindustantimes.com | Edited by Kunal Gaurav PUBLISHED ON MAR 12, 2021 05:30 PM IST

Several European nations have temporarily halted the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine against coronavirus disease (Covid-19) as a precautionary measure after reports of patients developing blood clots emerged. While Denmark, Norway, and Iceland on Thursday suspended the use of all of their AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine supply, some other European states have decided to suspend its use from a particular batch of the vaccine. Austria suspended the use of an AstraZeneca vaccine batch following the death of a 49- year-old nurse due to “severe blood coagulation problems” days after receiving an anti- Covid jab. Other European nations that suspended the same vaccine batch of one million shots sent to 17 countries include Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Luxembourg. As of March 9, at least 22 cases of thromboembolic events, marked by the formation of blood clots, has been reported among 3 million people who have received the AstraZeneca vaccine. On Friday, Bulgaria became the latest country to suspend inoculations using the AstraZeneca vaccine as the government urged the European Medicines Agency (EMA) to send a written statement dispelling all doubts about the vaccine's safety. Meanwhile, non-European countries like Australia and Canada have decided to continue with the rollout of AstraZeneca's Covid-19 vaccine, saying there was no evidence that the vaccine caused adverse effects such as blood clotting. The European Union’s drugs regulator said in a statement that it was aware of Denmark’s temporary suspension of its vaccination campaign. However, it insisted there is currently no indication that AstraZeneca’s vaccine has caused the conditions, which are not listed as side effects. The EMA reiterated the position of its safety committee, saying the vaccine’s benefits continue to outweigh its risks and the inoculations can continue while the regulator investigates the concerns. The World Health Organization (WHO) on Friday said that there was no reason to stop the use of AstraZeneca’s vaccine. During a briefing in Geneva, WHO spokesperson Margaret Harris told reporters that there has been no death “proven to have be caused by vaccination” and the health authorities “should continue using the AstraZeneca vaccine.” "We must always ensure that we look for any safety signals when we roll out vaccines, and we must review them," she said. A WHO spokesperson had earlier told Sputnik, Russia’s state-owned news agency, that Global Advisory Committee on Vaccine Safety (GACVS) is “carefully assessing” the reports on risk related to the AstraZeneca vaccine. The spokesperson said that any changes to current recommendations will be immediately communicated to the public as soon as the UN health agency gains a full understanding of the events, reported Sputnik. "The committee further noted that the vaccine can continue to be administered while the investigation of cases of thromboembolic events is ongoing," the spokesperson was quoted by Sputnik as saying.

(https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/astrazeneca-vaccine-use-halted-in- several-eu-countries-what-do-we-know-so-far-101615548179755.html)

Severe allergy added to AstraZeneca vaccine side effects: EU regulator

By AFP - March 12, 2021 @ 10:09pm THE HAGUE: Severe allergies should be added to the possible side effects of AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine after likely links were found to a number of cases in Britain, the EU's drug regulator said on Friday.

The development comes a day after the European Medicines Agency said it was investigating a separate issue of blood clots that prompted Denmark to suspend use of the jab, but said it remained safe to use.

The Amsterdam-based EMA said it had "recommended an update to the product information to include anaphylaxis and hypersensitivity (allergic reactions) as side effects."

"The update is based on a review of 41 reports of possible anaphylaxis seen among around 5 million vaccinations in the United Kingdom," it said in the highlights of the EMA committee that assesses the risk of medications.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

• Five things you should know about the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine • US frontliner suffers severe allergic reaction to Pfizer vaccine • Thailand delays AstraZeneca vaccine rollout over blod clot fears • Experts: No need to panic about vaccine side effects

"After careful review of the data, (the committee) considered that a link to the vaccine was likely in at least some of these cases."

The EMA said however that anaphylaxis, or what it called "severe allergic reactions", was already what it called a "known side effect that may occur, very rarely, with vaccines."

(https://www.nst.com.my/world/world/2021/03/673346/severe-allergy-added- astrazeneca-vaccine-side-effects-eu-regulator)

Coronavirus: in Thailand, vaccine inequality fears grow as private hospitals eye profits The kingdom has allowed private hospitals to sell Covid-19 vaccines even as the government embarks on a drive to inoculate 33 million Thais this year

While the move comes as a relief for tourism and manufacturing firms keen to restart trade, others worry it will worsen vaccine access in the nation of 69 million

A nurse in Bangkok prepares a dose of Covid-19 vaccine from China’s Sinovac. Photo: Xinhua Boon Vanasin, chairman of Thai hospital chain Thonburi Healthcare Group, has been talking to Covid-19 vaccine manufacturers for several months now to try to procure as many doses as possible.

The group, which runs eight hospitals in the country, plans to sell vaccinations to private clients at a proposed price of 2,000 baht (US$65) per jab. Boon has already received some advance orders from tourism and manufacturing businesses.

The doses from Chinese manufacturer Sinovac generally cost the most compared with other vaccines, Boon said, due to its inactivated vaccine technology – or the use of live viruses to stimulate antibodies.

(https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3125074/coronavirus- thailand-vaccine-inequality-fears-grow

Mapping the Coronavirus Outbreak Across the World Updated: March 13, 2021, 9:24 AM GMT+8 Tracking Covid-19

• Vaccine Tracker • Global Cases • U.S. Cases • U.S. Regions U.K. 1,919 65,122 1,497.9 2.5

U.S. 1,612 88,847 1,048.1 2.8

France 1,334 60,282 N/A 6.0

Brazil 1,308 54,034 N/A N/A

Germany 911 31,867 575.9 8.0

Russia 632 30,446 784.5 8.1

India 121 8,622 171.6 0.5

Japan 68 3,536 65.9 13.1

Mainland China 3 65 N/A 4.3

Testing data as of March 12, 2021, 8:50 PM GMT+8 Sources: OECD for number of hospital beds (2016 for the U.S., 2017 for other countries), government agencies and the COVID Tracking Project via Our World in Data for testing data (various recent dates) (reported in the past 45 days) and the U.S. Census Bureau for population figures (2019).

The world is bracing for a new wave of Covid-19 infections, as the coronavirus pandemic has infected more than 115 million people and killed more than 2.6 million globally since late January 2020. Efforts many countries took to stamp out the pneumonia-like illness led to entire nations enforcing lockdowns, widespread halts of international travel, mass layoffs and battered financial markets. Recent attempts to revive social life and financial activities have resulted in another surge in cases and hospitalizations, though new drugs and improved care may help more people who get seriously ill survive.

Getting to a Flatter Curve The first 420 days with more than 100 confirmed cases

• Asia

• Other Show deaths 01002003004001 yrDays since 100 confirmed cases1001,00010,000100,0001,000,00010,000,00030,000,000CasesMainland ChinaSouth KoreaJapanFranceSingaporeSpainU.K.Hong KongU.S.AustraliaBrazilIndiaRussiaTaiwanNew Zealand Note: JHU CSSE reporting began on January 22, 2020, when mainland China had already surpassed 500 cases. Source: Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering 119,014,963 Confirmed cases worldwide 2,638,140 Deaths worldwide Jurisdictions with cases confirmed as of March 13, 2021, 9:24 AM GMT+8

• 1–99

• 100–999

• 1,000–9,999

• 10,000–99,999

• 100,000–999,999

• 1,000,000–9,999,999

• 10 million or more Where deaths have occurred Deaths Cases

U.S. 532,400 29,343,532

Brazil 275,105 11,363,380

Mexico 193,142 2,151,028

India 158,306 11,308,846

U.K. 125,579 4,261,398

Italy 101,564 3,175,807

France 90,207 4,075,735

Russia 89,701 4,321,588

Germany 73,204 2,559,296

Spain 72,258 3,183,704

Iran 61,069 1,731,558

Colombia 60,950 2,294,617

Argentina 53,578 2,185,747

South Africa 51,179 1,526,873

Peru 48,484 1,394,571

Show more Note: Totals for Denmark, France, the Netherlands, the U.K., and the U.S. include overseas territories and other dependencies. Cases and deaths for cruise ships have been separated in accordance with JHU CSSE data. More Coverage From Bloomberg • Sign up for our daily coronavirus newsletter • Stories about the coronavirus outbreak from Bloomberg News • Virus Update from Bloomberg News • The Future of Travel in the Covid Era • How Covid Is Shifting Human Behavior Around the World • The Covid Resilience Ranking

The epicenter of the pandemic has continued to shift throughout the year, from China, then Europe, then the U.S., and now to developing countries like Brazil. Cases globally surpassed 10 million in late June, but ever since infections have been multiplying faster. The U.S. and India have the most infections, accounting for more than a third of all cases combined.

Global Cases Added Per Day New cases: 476,826 Jan 21, 2020 Mar 11, 2021 Brazil New cases: 75,412 Jan 21, 2020 Mar 11, 2021 U.S. 62,404 France 28,129 India 23,285 Russia 9,167 Iran 8,308 U.K. 6,835 Germany 4,745 Mainland China 9 Note: On February 14, 2020, Hubei officials changed their diagnostic criteria, resulting in a spike in reported cases.

Countries took drastic measures to mitigate the spread of Covid-19 on their homefront—with varying degrees of success. More than 140 governments placed blanket bans on incoming travelers, closed schools and restricted gatherings and public events, according to data compiled by Oxford University’s Blavatnik School of Government and Bloomberg reporting.

As countries loosen lockdowns in an effort to reboot their economies, many have seen a resurgence of infections. The number of new daily cases in the U.S. rose to record highs after some states relaxed social distancing requirements. Even places that successfully contained infections earlier in the year, like China and South Korea, have seen cases bubble back up. Theories that warmer weather in the Northern Hemisphere would bring relief appear to be unfounded.

How the Outbreak Spread Country by Country Seven-day rolling average of new deaths and cases

• Asia

• Other Show cases Mar 2020Jan 2021Mar 1100.5K1.0K1.5K2.0K2.5K3.0K3.5KNew deaths by dayU.S.IndiaRussiaU.K. Note: Shown are the 15 places with the highest totals of confirmed cases, as of March 11. Negative values resulting from governments revising their totals have been excluded from rolling average calculations.

The “worst is yet to come” given a lack of global solidarity, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, head of the World Health Organization, said at a briefing in Geneva on June 29.

In May, the WHO emphasized the need for a plan that includes testing for the virus and its antibodies, effective contact tracing and isolation, and community education. Antibody tests on the market that could potentially indicate a person’s immunity have been unreliable so far. Researchers and drugmakers are racing to develop treatments that could hold the key to recovery.

Gilead Sciences Inc.’s antiviral remdesivir is one of the first widely used drugs for Covid- 19. It received an emergency use authorization from U.S. regulators in May, after a trial found it sped recovery by about four days in hospitalized patients. It was also part of U.S. President Donald Trump’s treatment after he tested positive for the coronavirus in early October, along with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc.’s antibody cocktail and the generic drug dexamethasone.

Vaccines are also in development, though the study of one leading candidate from the University of Oxford and AstraZeneca Plc is on hold in the U.S. while regulators investigate a potential safety issue.

(https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-coronavirus-cases-world- map/?srnd=coronavirus)

Hard decisions to make

Wi Sung-lac The author is former South Korean Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs. America’s foreign policy on China is shaping up just two months after the launch of Joe Biden’s administration in January. Biden prioritizes China policy as seen in his considering the appointment of an “Asia czar” in the White House. In a changed international environment in which the former U.S.-Soviet rivalry was replaced by the Sino-U.S. confrontation, the Biden administration will certainly deal with Korean Peninsula issues, including the North Korean nuclear threat, in the bigger frame of U.S.-China competition. As a result, the United States will demand more from South Korea than in the past. U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s simultaneous trip to Seoul and Tokyo next week translates into a strategic step to consolidate America’s alliances and put the brakes on China’s growing clout in the region.

In the meantime, South Korea is impatient to restore dialogue with North Korea. With only a year left before President Moon Jae-in steps down next March, his Korean Peace Process is deadlocked despite his enthusiastic efforts over the past four years. As if to show his determination to re-create the glory of his 2018 summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, the liberal president keeps shuffling around the same people who helped him have a summit with Kim.

But Moon must not forget that U.S.-North dialogue did not resume even under the Trump administration. With Biden’s arrival, it will be even tougher. If Moon wants to rekindle the defunct denuclearization process, he must firmly establish Seoul’s position on China for more effective consultations with Washington. Unless Moon takes an approach in the bigger framework of the Sino-U.S. standoff, he will have trouble convincing the Biden administration of the need for rapprochement with a nuclear-armed state across the border.

And yet, the Moon administration is not ready to determine its position on China. In fact, our past governments avoided setting out principles on China amid the Sino-U.S. confrontation over the decades and, instead, reacted to their conflicts on a case-by-case basis. That encouraged the two countries to draw South Korea to their side. While the U.S. harbored more distrust in its ally, China mounted pressure on South Korea to bring the country to its side.

To address this dilemma, the Moon administration must first fix its position and future direction between the United States and China and let them sense it through concrete policies. If the government offers policy consistency and predictability, China and America can both fix their expectations from South Korea — an indispensable task for the country to weather the Sino-U.S. rivalry.

But if the Moon administration keeps avoiding the task and demands soft approaches to North Korea from the Biden administration, it will only backfire. You can hardly expect South Korea to get help from America to find ways to break the deadlock in the peace process. If Pyongyang makes a military provocation under such circumstances, the Moon administration will be stuck with nothing left to do until its term is over next year.

I want to propose substantial approaches to North Korea. First of all, the Moon administration must draw up a comprehensive plan, including a fixing of our position between China and the U.S., to facilitate consultations with Washington. What counts most here is that the United States is our ally while China is a partner. South Korea also shares more values with the United States than with China.

South Korea has made one of the most outstanding accomplishments over the past decades by upholding democracy and a market economy system. China took a different path. If we were to veer closer to China, we would have to compromise such precious and fundamental values as freedom, democracy and sovereignty. Therefore, we should fix our future direction closer to the United States. At the same time, the government needs to be discreet in dealing with China given its geographical proximity and our economic interdependence.

Second, it would be better for the government to devise effective ways to stabilize its relations with Japan. Washington would welcome that. Unless the government demonstrates flexibility on sensitive issues, including the wartime forced labor and sexual slavery hot potatoes, it can hardly expect a positive reaction from Tokyo. The longer such disputes drag on, the more disadvantageous for South Korea.

Third, the government should reactivate the suspended peace process after determining ways to respond to China and Japan and consulting with Washington over the North Korea issue.

Korean diplomacy faces a test again. If the government fails to coordinate North Korea policy with Washington, its diplomatic and security scorecard will be poor. South Korea must make tough decisions on China and Japan. That is not only needed for policy toward Beijing and Tokyo but also toward Washington. If the Moon administration isn’t prepared to do this, it cannot get what it wants from a Biden administration engrossed with containing China in the region. Is Seoul prepared to accept that uncomfortable truth? (https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2021/03/10/opinion/columns/Moon-Jaein-Biden- China/20210310193000350.html)

THE PROFESSION OF ARMS DURING THE NUCLEAR AGE, THE COLD WAR, AND THE END OF HISTORY Mick Ryan | 03.12.21

Author’s note: This is the third in a series of articles about the profession of arms. Over the series, I will chart the modern development of our profession in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, examining that development through the lens of four themes that have driven and influenced it: events, technology, ideas, and institutions. I will then examine how change in the strategic environment will drive continued evolution in the profession of arms. Importantly, I will propose areas where we, as members of this profession, must lead change and ensure our military institutions remain effective—at every level—into the twenty-first century. You can also read the first and second articles in the series.

The twentieth century witnessed a series of turning points in the modern profession of arms. The technological developments of the Second Industrial Revolution—which bracketed the turn of that century—drove the transformation of military ideas and institutions, and saw the conduct of war leap into a new domain with the birth of aerospace forces. The period to the end of World War II was explored in Part Two of this series. The technological, ideological, and societal changes in the period before World War II resulted in a profession that possessed an expanded view of military activities within broader national security approaches. The profession of arms also evolved alongside an improved the capacity to mobilize populations and national industry. As Margaret MacMillan has recently written, “One of the great tragedies of modern war was that the very strengths of societies—in organization, industry, science or resources—could turn them into such effective killing machines.” This necessitated a broader view of strategy, which until now had largely been a military preoccupation. As Lawrence Freedman has written, “It was only the shocking experience of World War I that led to attempts to broaden the meaning of strategy.” With the first use of atomic weapons in the cities of Nagasaki and Hiroshima in 1945, members of the profession of arms witnessed clear evidence of the potential for military activities henceforth to be able to extinguish not just an enemy army, but all of humankind. As this article demonstrates, the advent of nuclear weapons would have a significant impact on the profession. This also represented the start of a pulse of professionalism in the twentieth-century profession of arms.

This article examines the post-atomic era, which like the first forty-five years of the twentieth century saw many milestones in the development of the modern profession. This second pulse of professionalism was driven by geopolitical competition, decolonization by European powers, new technologies, and eventually a world transformed by the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Like the first two parts of this series, the development of the modern profession of arms in this article will be explored through the framework of events, technology, ideas, and institutions. This part will focus on events, with the other three legs of the framework covered subsequently in the series.

The multi-decade Cold War laid a foundation for the profession of arms as it exists in the twenty-first century, and provides many lessons about great power competition that retain relevance today. It is therefore appropriate that we spend some time reviewing the events of the Cold War to set the scene for our continued examination of the profession of arms in the twentieth century.

Events The Cold War. It would be impossible here to provide a full history of the Cold War. Our aim is not to provide a full account of the period between 1947 and 1991 but to assess the impact of the Cold War on the profession of arms and its members. Characterized by the grand competition between the United States and its allies on one side and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and its client states on the other, the Cold War saw the rise of nuclear weapons and the strategies associated with their possession. It also featured political warfare, influence operations, the space race, and a nearly constant threat of nuclear warfare. The confrontation between the two blocs during the Cold War was heavily shaped by the largest member of each of these blocs. After the Soviet Union exploded its first atomic weapon in 1949, and then a thermonuclear weapon in 1953 (one year after America), the security policies and military strategies of both sides were increasingly based on nuclear deterrence. The dominance of nuclear deterrence was to have a significant impact on the profession of arms. First, and perhaps most importantly, it led to the creation of a new breed of defense intellectuals whose main concern was nuclear strategy. While the idea of strategy was not new, the addition of such destructive weapons to the arsenals of NATO and the Warsaw Pact meant that nations had to evolve strategic thought to take account of the potential impacts of their use. Strategists such as Herman Kahn, Bernard Brodie, Thomas Schelling, and Albert Wohlstetter (among many others) all made significant contributions to various theories around nuclear strategies from the 1950s onwards. A second generation, composed of strategists such as Lawrence Freedman and Colin Gray, followed in the late 1970s and early 1980s. The Cold War, and the developments in nuclear strategy, also led to research and debate on the conduct of civil-military relations. Despite nuclear weapons being deployed by the military services of the United States, Britain, and France, the control of these weapons was ultimately vested in the civilian political leaders, not the military. This demanded that new forms of interaction between civilian and military leaders and strategists be developed.

The relief of Gen. Douglas MacArthur by US President Harry Truman during the Korean War provided an exemplar of how the implementation of strategy was evolving and how nuclear weapons were changing the interaction of civilian political leaders and senior military leaders. In early 1951, MacArthur issued a series of public statements that included a communique offering a ceasefire to China in March 1951. Truman believed these statements challenged his authority. Further, Truman felt that some of MacArthur’s military operations unnecessarily provoked China. Fearing that these events not only challenged presidential authority, but also set a bad precedent for future civil-military relations in the United States, Truman relieved MacArthur from command in April 1951. Another useful case study in the evolution in civil-military relations was the Cuban missile crisis. The difference in thinking about nuclear weapons on display during that event was stark. While President John F. Kennedy and his civilian advisors did not think it was possible to win a nuclear exchange and sought to find a negotiated solution, senior military leaders based their planning on the theory that it was possible to win a nuclear exchange and retain a society with a population above minimum viability. The crisis, playing out over thirteen days, provided lessons in crisis management, bureaucratic decision making, political control over the use of nuclear weapons, diplomacy, nuclear strategy, and civil-military relations. The lessons of the MacArthur relief, the Cuban missile crisis, and dawning understanding that nuclear exchanges would result in mutual destruction drove a change in how military institutions interacted with civilian policymakers. Senior military leaders, many of whom had spent their formative years on the battlefields of World War II, now required the ability to better appreciate and analyze the military implications of the policy requirements of their civilian leaders. To be effective strategic leaders, senior military leaders needed to understand the art and science of military activities, as well as how to inform and participate in high-level policy discussions with civilian leaders. This in turn drove evolution in the training and education of military officers and reinforced the requirement for high-level education—in the form of war colleges—in every major country. We will return to the theories of civil-military relations—what Eliot Cohen has called “the unequal dialog”—in the next part of this series. The Cold War also saw new skillsets and career pathways emerge in the profession. In biology, speciation is an evolutionary process whereby populations of living things evolve to become distinct species. Subspeciation is the way in which these species then divide into subspecies. An element of the natural world, we can also see this process occurring in the profession of arms because of new technologies introduced during the Cold War. New subspecialties (and new doctrines) within existing services arose to meet the requirements of nuclear deterrence and to exploit the power of new technologies such as nuclear power generation, space-based satellites, and long-range missiles.

The US Air Force Strategic Air Command was established in 1946 on the foundation of World War II bomber commands and became a principal element of the US nuclear deterrent. The development of intercontinental missiles and their nuclear warheads saw the establishment of a new missile division within the command in 1957. With the advent of satellites, the Air Force established its first space organization in 1954, which in due course provided the foundation for the establishment of the service’s Space Command in 1982. The development of nuclear-powered submarines by the United States Navy in the 1950s resulted in the establishment of an entirely new professional community within the service. Each of these new organizations and subspecialties required supporting doctrine, training, education, career pathways, and leadership models. The profession of arms expanded its knowledge base and increased the number of “subspecies” that belonged to it. Eventually, this broadening of military capabilities would drive the need for better joint collaboration and integration, which will be explored in the next part of this series. The combination of new technologies, strategic competition, new institutions, and new doctrines was a principal driver in the second pulse of professionalism for the twentieth-century profession of arms. The Cold War was also the background to a different form of conflict in the post–World War II period: the withdrawal from colonial possessions by European powers. From 1950 until almost the end of the Cold War, decolonization was a factor in conflicts in Africa and Asia. Some of these conflicts—like wars in Vietnam and Algeria—featured indigenous forces conducting insurgencies. These insurgencies were often supported by third parties, and were frequently viewed as proxy struggles between the United States and the Soviet Union. The nuclear standoff of the Cold War coexisted with low- level, guerrilla warfare. Lawrence Freedman wrote that “if nuclear weapons pulled military strategy away from conventional warfare in one direction, guerrilla warfare moved it in another.” In various guises over the rest of the twentieth century, this indirect approach to securing political objectives was to distract, and at times consume, Western strategists and military leaders. As a form of warfare, this was hardly new. But it was Mao Zedong from China who would refine the approach to an art form in his struggle against the Chinese Nationalists in the late 1940s. While Mao never saw guerrilla warfare as the exclusive path to victory, it suited his lack of material and military resources. The military institutions of the West had to work hard to adjust their tactics, doctrine, and training to adapt to the kind of unconventional—and very political—operations described by Mao in his book On Guerrilla Warfare. The Malayan emergency between 1948 and 1960 saw British Commonwealth forces fighting the Malayan National Liberation Army, a communist organization seeking Malayan independence. Under the remarkably innovative leadership of the British Army’s Gen. Sir Gerald Templer, the early 1950s saw development of new counterinsurgency theory and doctrine that unified social, economic, political, police, and military efforts. At nearly the same time, France struggled with its Algerian colony fighting for independence. Over the period of 1954 to 1962, French forces—often brutally—sought to suppress the independence movement led by the indigenous National Liberation Front. The most important contribution to the profession of arms’ thinking about guerrilla warfare and counterinsurgency from the war in Algeria was that of French military officer David Galula. As a young company commander in that conflict, he successfully eliminated the insurgency from the area he was responsible for. But his ideas, especially isolating insurgents from the populace, were never widely adopted by French forces and Algeria gained its independence in 1962. With a couple of exceptions, the theories of Mao, Templer, and Galula were largely forgotten by US forces during the Vietnam War. As David Fitzgerald writes in Learning to Forget, “Although there has been a long tradition within the Army of fighting small wars, it is also true that these wars have not lingered in the organization’s historical memory.” Thus, the hard-earned lessons of Vietnam were similarly left behind in the wake of the US defeat there. Counterinsurgency became a subject studied by very few either inside or outside the military. But the wars spawned by the 9/11 attacks on the United States led to a re-examination of these ideas from the few decades after World War II. A new generation of young scholars, such as David Kilcullen, John Nagl, Emile Simpson, and others, would recast revolutionary warfare and counterinsurgency theories for a new generation of military planners and leaders in the first decade of the twenty-first century. It was not only unconventional conflicts that drove changes in thinking in the military profession during the Cold War. The Cold War also provided the background for industrial-style conflicts in which massed armies, air forces, and navies undertook what we might understand as conventional operations. Very early in the Cold War, some hoped that the possession of nuclear weapons would negate the need for large (and expensive) standing conventional militaries. This idea eventually foundered on the lessons of the defeat of Task Force Smith in Korea in July 1950. Superpowers and other major powers such as Britain and France would thereafter have to sustain both their growing nuclear arsenals and large standing conventional military organizations. In his book The Utility of Force, Maj. Gen. Rupert Smith called these “parallel conflicts.” These conflicts were conducted generally with the same forces that had been built for the Cold War competition. Additionally there were often (but not always) underlying connections between the specific conflict and the large competition between the two blocs involved in the Cold War. The Korean War, which broke out in 1950, was a largely a conventional conflict, although new elements such as United Nations Command—and possession of nuclear weapons by one of the protagonists—differentiated it from the recently concluded World War II. But other wars featuring traditional military classes were also fought in Kashmir, between Israeli and its neighbors, between China and Vietnam in 1979, over the Falkland Islands in 1982, and between Iran and Iraq from 1980 to 1988. These conflicts reinforced to many that the era of conventional, or Industrial Age, conflict was not over. More importantly, they provided an important source of lessons about new approaches to tactics such as air-land integration, and vital insights into the use of new technologies such as antitank missiles. But perhaps the high point of conventional excellence during the second half of the twentieth century was the 1991 Gulf War. It was a harbinger of a new era of integration of joint capabilities, recon-strike capabilities, and advanced technologies. But it was also an example (again) of how conventional excellence does not always lead to enduring political solutions. And it provided important insights for both state and nonstate actors that would seek to challenge the West’s ideas and military forces in the twenty-first century.

The Cold War, from 1947 through to the 1991 dissolution of the Soviet Union, drove the development of many technologies that continue to have an impact on military institutions and the profession of arms. In the 1970s and 1980s, Soviet military leaders wrote about a new revolution in military affairs. As Andrew Krepinevich has written, this stemmed from their concern over the United States’ possession of more advanced technology and its incorporation into military systems. Using the term “military-technical revolution,” the Soviets speculated that new advanced technologies, particularly those enabling greater precision and networking through information systems, would see quality becoming more important than quantity, thereby revolutionizing warfare. The development of better computers and the internet allowed more rapid sharing of information and networking of sensors. Space-based capabilities increased the precision and discrimination of warfare. During this era, new subspecialties within the profession that focused on long-range strike, communications, nuclear-powered vessels, and other areas emerged. We will return to this topic—and the debate around the notion of a revolution in military affairs—in a subsequent article in this series. But perhaps the most important event of the Cold War is what did not occur—a breakout of hostilities leading to a nuclear exchange. Scholar Reed Robert Bonadonna has proposed that the greatest accomplishment of the military profession during the twentieth century was its evident restraint while it exercised stewardship and control over nuclear weapons, which were not employed. This may overstate the role of the profession somewhat given the contributions of strategists, policymakers, political leaders, industry, and various elements of society to this outcome. However, there is little doubt that the professional military institutions that appeared after World War II did play a large part in this positive outcome for all human beings. There are lessons in this for our profession as we grapple with the challenges of another strategic competition between two wealthy, highly advanced but ideologically different powers in the twenty- first century. A World Transformed? It would have been a neat ending indeed to finish this exploration of key events with the end of the Cold War. However, history had one more act to play out as the century drew to a close. As John Lewis Gaddis writes, “At the beginning of 1989 . . . the Soviet Union, its empire, its ideology—and therefore the Cold War itself—was a sand pile ready to slide.” Even newly inaugurated US President George H.W. Bush did not appreciate the massive geopolitical change that lay ahead for his administration. As he notes in A World Transformed, “Did we see what was coming when we entered office? No we did not. The world we encountered in January 1989 was the familiar bipolar one of superpower rivalry. . . . Yet in only three years, the Cold War was over.” Throughout 1989, a series of events in Eastern Europe, including the removal of the fence between Hungary and Austria, elections in Poland, and the opening of the wall between East and West Berlin by East German border guards heralded massive changes in Europe. By 1991 the end was in sight for the Soviet Union. On December 25 of that year, the last leader of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, signed a decree making his office extinct and handed over his powers to Boris Yeltsin. The Soviet Union was no more, and the Cold War was over. While the Soviet Union may have no longer existed, millions of troops still occupied positions throughout Europe. Fleets of strategic bombers, nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles, and nuclear missile submarines were still at high readiness, maintaining the nuclear deterrents for their nations. But it did not take long for demands for a peace dividend in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union to build. The states on both sides were left with a surplus of military power. The years between 1992 and 2000 saw a significant reduction in forces as a result of government desires to reduce defense expenditures and arms control treaties such as the 1993 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START II). Despite the victory of the US coalition forces over Iraq in early 1991, the profession in the West now faced a challenge: What would its future role be with the disappearance of the existential challenge posed by the Soviet Union? The large peer competitor against which all military capability was compared in the West no longer existed. But while military institutions began a period of introspection and, to a certain degree, hand wringing, civilian policymakers were already looking to solve new national security challenges. Failing states, the proliferation of nuclear and biological weapons, terrorism, and ethnic civil wars would come to dominate the security focus of leaders in Western nations in the immediate post–Cold War era. Writing in 1991, Lawrence Freedman described the global security environment as one characterized by “confused interests,” “confused principles,” and “confused instruments.” And as Theo Farrell writes in Transforming Military Power since the Cold War, these new challenges were less about “the amount of military power, and more [about] military agility.” Military institutions, and the wider profession of arms, henceforth would focus less on large-scale conventional operations and more on peacekeeping, stabilization, and humanitarian support activities. There was ample opportunity for military organizations in the 1990s to develop new approaches for operations in places such as Kosovo, Somalia, Haiti, Liberia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Rwanda, Cambodia, and beyond. Over the decade after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, military organizations that had spent decades preparing for war with the Warsaw Pact would adapt to undertake what became known in the US military as “military operations other than war.” As the profession came to grips with the implications of this “unipolar moment,” military organizations adapted what they taught in their training schools, officer academies, and war colleges. Less warfighting and more peacekeeping became the focus in many military institutions. Accompanying a surge in regional studies and examination of the politics of a new world order, new military doctrine was developed to support this shift. Importantly, new military operations incorporated many other nonmilitary players that had not been present in more conventional operations. Other government agencies and nongovernmental organizations all played a part in the stabilization and rebuilding of disrupted societies. This demanded a new approach to planning and executing military operations. It was an approach that required greater civil-military integration. Charles Moskos, writing in The Postmodern Military, proposed that “whatever the future holds, we can for now confidently state that the dominant trend is a blurring of the lines between the military and civilian entities, both in structure and culture. This permeability between military and civilian structures is a major new historical phenomenon.” This transition to a new postmodern military was still very much underway when airliners flew into the Twin Towers and the Pentagon on that September morning in 2001. As the profession of arms responded to the post–Cold War era, including the reductions in force sizes and adapting to new missions, major developments were continuing to take place in technology. In the 1990s, computers became more widely available, more powerful, and cheaper to acquire. At the same time, technologies such as GPS were enabling a revolution in precision warfare. Finally, the internet became widely accessible. These technological imperatives, along with the geopolitical changes of the post–Cold War era, drove transformation in the profession of arms. This spawned new theories of warfare including, as highlighted earlier, the concept of a revolution in military affairs. We will examine the idea of revolutions in military affairs in a subsequent part of this series. But before we do, we must turn to an exploration of the technologies developed after World War II that would drive evolution in how military institutions, and the profession of arms, thought about and conducted military operations. This will be the focus of Part Four of this series on the modern profession of arms.

Maj. Gen. Mick Ryan is an Australian Army officer. A graduate of Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and the USMC Command and Staff College and School of Advanced Warfare, he is a passionate advocate of professional education and lifelong learning. He has commanded at platoon, squadron, regiment, task force, and brigade level, and is a science fiction fan, a cricket tragic, terrible gardener, and an aspiring writer. In January 2018, he assumed command of the Australian Defence College in Canberra, Australia. He is an adjunct scholar at the Modern War Institute, and tweets under the handle @WarInTheFuture. The views expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the United States Military Academy, Department of the Army, or Department of Defense.

(https://mwi.usma.edu/the-profession-of-arms-during-the-nuclear-age-the-cold-war-and-the- end-of-history/