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University of Warwick institutional repository: http://go.warwick.ac.uk/wrap A Thesis Submitted for the Degree of PhD at the University of Warwick http://go.warwick.ac.uk/wrap/49539 This thesis is made available online and is protected by original copyright. Please scroll down to view the document itself. Please refer to the repository record for this item for information to help you to cite it. Our policy information is available from the repository home page. Japan’s Foreign Policy towards India: a Neoclassical Realist Analysis of the Policymaking Process Victoria Tuke History BA Hons (Warwick) International Relations MA (Warwick) September 2011 Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in Politics and International Studies at the University of Warwick. i Victoria Tuke Candidate No: 0415703 Contents List of Tables and Figures ix Abbreviations x Acknowledgements xii Declaration xiii Abstract xiv 1 Introduction 1 I. Research Objective 3 II. Why does this research problem matter? 6 III. Literature Review 7 IV. Contributions of the study 11 V. Argument 12 VI. Research Method 13 i. Primary data 14 ii. Secondary data 18 VII. Organisation of the thesis 19 VIII. Selection of case studies 20 2 Key Debates on Japanese Foreign Policy; Realism, Liberalism, Constructivism and Neoclassical Realism 22 I. Theories of Japanese foreign policy 22 i. Japan as a ‘realist-military’ state 24 ii. The role of ‘gaiatsu’ 26 iii. Japan’s ‘liberal’ economic policy 29 iv. The ‘constructivist turn’ 30 v. An alternative paradigm 33 II. Neoclassical Realism (NCR) – a viable middle approach 34 i. Balance of power 36 ii. Domestic variables 37 ii Victoria Tuke Candidate No: 0415703 iii. Norms and NCR 38 iv. The role of policymakers 41 III. NCR and East Asia 45 IV. Additional ‘hybrid’ departures from mainstream theories 47 i. Postclassical realism 47 ii. Analytical eclecticism 48 V. Criticisms 50 VI. Conclusion 52 3 The Dominance of Structure: the US and China in Japanese Policymaking A) Role of the United States 55 I. The US-Japan alliance 57 i. President Obama 58 II. US conceptions of India 61 i. President Clinton 62 ii. President Bush 63 iii. President Obama 66 III. US Role in Japan’s India policy 70 i. Awakening Japan to India’s strategic benefit 70 ii. Japan-India relations as a US-led trilateral 71 iii. India - an alternative security partner 74 iv. Japan as America’s ‘puppy’ 76 IV. Conclusion 77 B) Role of China 77 I. Sino-Japanese relations – an overview 79 II. Sino-US relations 85 III. Increased Chinese assertiveness 87 i. China’s military modernisation 87 ii. Maritime confidence 92 IV. Significance of the seas 93 V. The influence of China on Japan’s policy towards India 96 i. Divergent opinions 97 iii Victoria Tuke Candidate No: 0415703 ii. Instances of Chinese influence 99 VI. The China factor in Indian policymaking 101 VII. Conclusion 104 4 The Policymaking Process: Domestic Institutions and Actors 106 I. Policymaking models 107 i. ‘Kantei diplomacy’ 108 ii. Patterned pluralism 110 II. Domestic institutions and actors 111 III. Prime Ministers 111 i. Mori Yoshiro, 2000-2001 113 ii. Koizumi Junichiro, 2001-2006 114 iii. Abe Shinzo, 2006-2007 115 iv. Fukuda Yasuo, 2007-2008 118 v. Aso Taro, 2008-2009 119 vi. Hatoyama Yukio, 2009-2011 120 vii. Kan Naoto, 2010-11 121 IV. The Diet and Political Parties 122 i. The DPJ’s views of India 124 V. Bureaucracy 127 i. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs 130 ii. The Southwest Asian Affairs Department 132 iii. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry 134 iv. The Ministry of Finance 135 v. The Ministry of Defense 136 VI. Business community 138 VII. Mass media 139 VIII. Additional actors 143 i. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh 145 IX. Public opinion 146 X. Conclusions 149 5 Japan’s Policy and Relations with India: An Historical Review 151 I. Early encounters 153 iv Victoria Tuke Candidate No: 0415703 II. Sixteenth century cultural and economic contact 153 III. Meiji-era economic contact and the opening of diplomatic channels 154 IV. Intellectual exchange – the friendship of Tagore and Tenshin 155 V. Political awakening; Indian independence and wartime interaction 156 VI. Justice Pal’s dissenting verdict 160 VII. ‘Feelings of friendship’: post-war peace negotiations 163 VIII. Post-war economic relations 165 IX. The onset of Cold War bipolarity 167 X. Prospects by the 1980s 169 XI. Post-Cold War 171 XII. Conclusions 172 Case studies: 6 Japan’s Economic Interest and Interaction with India 174 I. India’s 1990-1 economic crisis – an opportunity for Japanese action 177 II. 1990s – Limited economic progress through ‘turbulent’ times 179 III. The lifting of sanctions 181 IV. Reassessment of India’s economic worth 183 V. Japan’s complaints 187 i. India’s shortcoming as an investment destination 190 ii. Infrastructure 190 iii. Investment climate 192 iv. Corruption 194 v. ‘Distant neighbours’ 195 vi. Democratic delays 195 vii. Human flows 196 VI. Japan’s weaknesses 197 i. Ingrained business practices 197 ii. Cultural differences 199 iii. Lack of knowledge 199 VII. The Role of ODA in Japan’s strategy towards India 201 i. Japan’s post-war ODA strategy 202 ii. The first ODA Charter 204 v Victoria Tuke Candidate No: 0415703 iii. Praise and criticism 204 VIII. India as an ODA destination 208 IX. Objectives in India 212 X. Strings to Japan’s ODA programme 214 i. Infrastructure 214 ii. Human exchange 217 iii. Distribution 218 iv. Ownership 221 XI. Obstacles 221 i. From India 221 ii. From Japan 223 XII. India’s reception of Japanese aid 224 XIII. 2010 and beyond 227 XIV. Conclusions on ODA’s role 228 XV. Moving into the ‘new frontier’ and reducing dependence on China 231 i. Rare earths 235 ii. Limitations of other partners 237 XVI. Trade – a disappointing record 238 XVII. Key industries for Japan-India cooperation 240 i. The auto industry 240 ii. The case of Suzuki 242 iii. The promise of the IT sector 245 iv. Pharmaceuticals 246 XVIII. Japan’s ‘flagship’ investments: the DMIC and DFC 249 XIX. Domestic actors 252 i. The role of METI 254 ii. Politicians 255 iii. Limitations of government initiatives 256 XX. FDI as a foreign policy tool 257 i. Japanese commercial interest 258 ii. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) 262 XXI. The Japan-India ‘Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement’ 263 XXII. FTAs as strategic foreign policy tools 268 XXIII. Obstacles on the road to free trade 271 vi Victoria Tuke Candidate No: 0415703 XXIV. Neighbourly rivalry – the role of ROK in stimulating Japanese policy 274 XXV. Importance of perceptions 280 XXVI. Conclusions 280 7 The Nuclear Dilemma 285 I. History of the Nuclear Industry 286 i. The Non-Proliferation Treaty 287 ii. Japan and India’s views of the NPT 288 II. India’s nuclear development 290 i. Smiling Buddha – 1974 291 ii. Rajiv Gandhi 292 III. Japan’s nuclear development 295 IV. Japan and India’s nuclear policies clash 298 V. Nuclear Renaissance 301 VI. India’s thirst for energy 303 VII. External pressures – competition from Australia, Canada and ROK 305 VIII. Japan Internationalises its Nuclear Industry 308 i. Using nuclear technology as an export 310 IX. The US-India Nuclear Deal 311 i. Commercial interests 312 ii. Domestic pressures in the US 314 iii. The NSG vote 315 iv. Japan’s rationale 316 v. An answer to climate change? 317 vi. Japanese technology – the essential link 318 X. An India-Japan Nuclear Deal 319 XI. Intervening variables and actors 321 i. Role of public opinion 321 ii. Bureaucrats 324 iii. Politicians 327 iv. Japanese industry 329 XII. A Nuclear Case of Jekyll and Hyde 331 XIII. The Fallout from Fukushima 334 XIV. India’s security concerns 335 vii Victoria Tuke Candidate No: 0415703 XV. Additional costs of nuclear cooperation – both financial and institutional 337 i. Future of the NPT 339 XVI. Conclusions 339 8 Security Cooperation 343 i. Organisation 345 ii. Theoretical considerations 346 I. Early years of cooperation 347 II. Threats at sea 348 i. Sea Lanes of Communication (SLOC) 349 ii. Japan’s maritime concerns 350 iii. Indian maritime unease 351 iv. Piracy in the Gulf of Aden – Japanese and Indian responses 352 v. An excuse for power-posturing? 354 III. The role of China 356 i. China’s growing presence at sea 356 ii. China’s willingness to exert its power 357 iii. India’s response 358 IV. India’s widening defence profile 359 V. Impact on Japanese policy 362 VI. The development of defence dialogue 364 i. Malabar Exercises 365 ii. Appraisal of the Defence Dialogue 367 VII. ‘Arc of Freedom and Prosperity’ 369 i. From ARF to ‘Quad’ 372 ii. Subtle shift back to a trilateral 374 VIII. Role of intervening variables 376 i. Elite perceptions 377 ii. The Japanese Constitution 378 iii. Ministry of Defence 379 iv. Politicians 380 v. Impact of the new DPJ administration 381 vi. The 2010 National Defence Policy Guidelines (NDPG) 382 vii. India’s view 385 viii Victoria Tuke Candidate No: 0415703 IX. Limitations in Defence Cooperation 388 i. The ‘Proliferation Security Initiative’ (PSI) 388 ii. Arms sales 390 iii. Implications for India 394 X. Conclusion 397 9 Conclusion 400 I. Overview of findings 400 II. Responses to research questions 403 I. Caveats 410 II. Where next? 411 References 414 List of Interviewees 447 ix Victoria Tuke Candidate No: 0415703 List of Tables and Figures 1. NCR Model for Explaining Foreign Policy Decisions 2. Using NCR to explain Japan’s foreign policy towards India 3. China’s Defence Spending 1996-2009 4. China-US military balance 5.