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Macroeconomic Essays on Vietnam Economy Pham Thai

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Macroeconomic Essays on Vietnam Economy Pham Thai ADVERTIMENT. Lʼaccés als continguts dʼaquesta tesi queda condicionat a lʼacceptació de les condicions dʼús establertes per la següent llicència Creative Commons: http://cat.creativecommons.org/?page_id=184 ADVERTENCIA. El acceso a los contenidos de esta tesis queda condicionado a la aceptación de las condiciones de uso establecidas por la siguiente licencia Creative Commons: http://es.creativecommons.org/blog/licencias/ WARNING. The access to the contents of this doctoral thesis it is limited to the acceptance of the use conditions set by the following Creative Commons license: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/?lang=en MACROECONOMIC ESSAYS ON VIETNAM ECONOMY by PHAM THAI BINH A Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfilment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the Department of Applied Economics Faculty of Economics and Business Studies Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona December 2019 DECLARATION This dissertation is the result of my own work and includes nothing, which is the outcome of work done in collaboration except where specifically indicated in the text. It has not been previously submitted, in part or whole, to any university of institution for any degree, diploma, or other qualification. Signed:______________________________________________________________ Date:_________________________________________________________________ Pham Thai Binh Barcelona (This declaration should also make clear any parts of the work that have been submitted for any other qualification.) Supervisor Co-Supervisor (signed) (signed) Prof. Héctor Sala Lorda Prof. José Ignacio Silva ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am deeply grateful to Prof. Héctor Sala Lorda & Prof. José Ignacio Silva for their guidance towards the end of the Doctoral degree. I gratefully acknowledge the financial support from Department of Applied Economics – Universitat Autonòma de Barcelona. I also appreciate for support and advice from Prof. Anna Matas Prof. Emilio Padilla Prof. Javier Asensio Prof. Rosella Nicolini Imma Ruano Moyano María Pilar Bernabé Conde Mireia Buj Gelonch and my dear friends. iii Dedicated to My family iv CONTENTS CHAPTER 1: Introduction ............................................................................................... 1 1.1 Forewords ..................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research structure ........................................................................................................................ 2 1.2.1 Growth and Real Business Cycles in Vietnam and the Asean-5 ............................................. 3 1.2.2 The macroeconomic effects of oil price and risk premium shocks on Vietnam ..................... 4 1.2.3 Crowding-in or Crowding-out macroeconomic effect of public investment in Vietnam ........ 6 1.2.4 On the implications of public expenditures on Vietnam’s business cycles ............................. 7 CHAPTER 2: Growth and Real Business Cycles in Vietnam and the Asean-5. Does the trend shock matter? .................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 10 2.2 Business cycle analysis ................................................................................................................ 14 2.2.1 Data and Background .......................................................................................................... 14 2.2.2 Business cycle facts .............................................................................................................. 16 2.3 Model .......................................................................................................................................... 20 2.3.1 Setting the economic environment ...................................................................................... 20 2.3.2 The long-run equilibrium ...................................................................................................... 25 2.4 Estimation and discussions ......................................................................................................... 27 2.4.1 Configuration ....................................................................................................................... 27 2.4.2 Results .................................................................................................................................. 29 2.4.3 Variance decomposition ....................................................................................................... 33 2.4.4 The importance of the trend shock ...................................................................................... 35 2.5 Counterfactual simulations ......................................................................................................... 36 2.6 Application to Thailand ............................................................................................................... 39 2.7 Concluding remarks..................................................................................................................... 41 References ......................................................................................................................................... 43 Appendix ........................................................................................................................................... 45 CHAPTER 3: The macroeconomic effects of oil price and risk premium shocks on Vietnam – Evidence from an over-identifying SVAR analysis........................................................ 49 v 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 50 3.2 Recent evidence on the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks in Asia ................................ 54 3.3 Empirical methodology and data description ............................................................................. 56 3.3.1 Methodology ........................................................................................................................ 56 3.3.2 Augmented models .............................................................................................................. 59 3.3.3 Data description ................................................................................................................... 61 3.4 Empirical results and discussion .................................................................................................. 62 3.4.1. The baseline model ............................................................................................................. 62 3.4.2 Models I and II ...................................................................................................................... 64 3.4.3. Model III .............................................................................................................................. 66 3.5 Variance analysis ........................................................................................................................ 68 3.5.1 Forecasting variance decomposition ................................................................................... 68 3.5.2 Historical variance decomposition ....................................................................................... 70 3.6 Conclusions .................................................................................................................................. 74 References ......................................................................................................................................... 77 Appendix ........................................................................................................................................... 79 Complementary material designed for an Online Appendix ............................................................. 81 CHAPTER 4: Crowding-in or Crowding-out macroeconomic effect of public investment in Vietnam? ......................................................................................................................... 85 4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 86 4.2 Background and related literature .............................................................................................. 88 4.2.1 Background on the Vietnamese economy ............................................................................ 88 4.2.2 A brief literature review ....................................................................................................... 91 4.3 Econometric methodology .......................................................................................................... 92 4.3.1 Vector Autoregression (VAR) ................................................................................................ 92 4.3.2 Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) ................................................................................ 93 4.3.3 Long- and Short-run identifications ..................................................................................... 94 4.3.4 Unit-root tests .....................................................................................................................
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