MEDIMUN XVI Annual Session 2021

Security Council Research Report Mediterranean Model United Nations XVI 2021

Contents Contents 2

Topic 1: The situation in Libya 3

Topic 2: The question of advancing responsible state behaviour in cyberspace in the context of free independent elections 9 Mediterranean Model United Nations XVI 2021

Topic 1: The situation in Libya

Introduction

Dictator Muammar al-Gaddafi ruled oil-rich Libya for nearly 40 years (1961-2011), but when the end came, it came fast - and the nation hasn’t been the same since.

Since the Arab spring movement and Nato bombing campaign that toppled Gaddafi in 2011, Libya has been in chaos. After Gaddafi fell, attempts to transition into democracy disintegrated into a new civil war between rival governments in 2014. Ever since, Libya’s civil war has only escalated further into more of an international war. Key nations in the region, such as Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE and more distant nations such as France, Italy, Russia and Turkey all have a large stake in solving this complex issue.

As of now the UN-recognised Tripoli administration, the Government of National Accord (GNA) and the Tobruk administration, lead the Libyan National Army (LNA), remain in conflict as to who should be in charge of running Libya.

General Overview

Libya has a 1,770 km long coastline right at the doorstep of Europe. Hence, it has become a key stepping stone for refugees across Africa looking to escape the terrors of their home nations. This influx of desperate people, combined with the chaos of having two governments that believe they should be in

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Mediterranean Model United Nations XVI 2021 control, has made Libya a breeding ground for human smuggling and extremist groups. Moreover, Libya is home to Africa’s biggest oil reserves, which puts it on the radar of other countries. And perhaps most importantly, there are 6 million Libyan people, simply wishing to have a safe and secure future. Since the uprising, more than 200,000 people have been displaced and 1.3 million are in need of humanitarian aid. Casualty numbers are hard to verify, but estimates range from 2,500 to 25,000 during the 2011 uprising alone.

Next, let’s look at the roots of this situation: We can trace back this chaos to 2011, when dictator Gaddafi fell to the popular protests known as the Arab Spring swept through the region. However, once Gaddafi was gone, the rebel groups that had united to bring him down, turned against each other. In 2014, a disputed parliamentary election plunged Libya into the chaos we see today. As key institutions like the law enforcement collapsed, two rival administrations emerged - the GNA and the LNA. The western, Tripoli administration, known as the Government of National Accord (GNA), is led by UN-backed prime minister, Fayez al-Sarraj. The eastern, Tobruk administration, known as the Libyan National Army (LNA), is led by renegade general Khalifa Haftar. Mediterranean Model United Nations XVI 2021

These two administrations have two different ‘models’ of power. The GNA is primarily based on Political Islam, while the LNA is primarily based on militarist nationalism. Thirdly, foreign nations play an ever increasing role in the nation due to their own strategic and economic interests. The LNA is supported by Russia, Egypt, UAE and Saudi Arabia (and to lesser extents by France) while the GNA is supported by Qatar, Turkey (and to lesser extents by Italy). The primary reason for those countries to support the LNA is that in their view Libya requires an authoritative figure that can bring stability to the region and fight the spread of Islamic groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood. On the other hand, the primary reasons for said countries to support the GNA is due to the shared ideological framework of Political Islam and support for the Muslim Brotherhood. These foreign nations have flooded Libya with weapons and drones, ignoring a UN arms embargo.

For the LNA, both Russia and Sudan have sent mercenaries and men to fight for Haftar. On the other side, Syrian and Turkish recruits and soldiers were sent to defend the GNA. Finally, here’s how the current situation in Libya is: The rivalry escalated quickly in 2019 when Haftar tried, but failed to conquer Tripoli. Since then, the country has been in an impasse of fighting. Since Haftar’s LNA still controls most of the nation’s oil fields, the country’s economy, and in turn the livelihood of its people are very much in his hands. As of November 9th 2020, the region has seen a month or so of relative calm following second peace talks in Berlin.

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Major Parties Involved

Government of National Accord The GNA was established with the United Nations help in 2015, in an effort to unify rival administrations that came out of the country’s disputed 2014 elections. It is currently led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj and is primarily based on Political Islam.

While the GNA is based in Libya’s capital, Tripoli, it only controls part of the west and due to lack of resources, has little power on ground. Its armed forces comprise the remains of Libya’s military;however, in addition to local militias, the GNA has around 30,000 fighters.

Turkey, Italy, and Qatar provide the GNA with significant military aid.

Libya National Army The LNA is a force of 25,000 fighters, led by renegade General Khalifa Haftar, and is an administration primarily based on militarist nationalism. Haftar was a former general who helped Qaddafi seize power; however, he later went on to assist the CIA after breaking with Qaddafi. The LNA today controls large areas of Libya’s east and south. Haftar attempted to claim rule over eastern parts of the country in April 2020, however this has not yet materialized, and his campaign to take Tripoli has collapsed due to opposition from GNA forces.

The LNA is primarily supported by France, Egypte, the UAE, and Russia. The LNA has been provided with drones and mercenaries by the UAE and Russia respectively. In January 2020, the LNA cost Libya upwards of $4 billion as it shut down state oil production and exports.

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Russia is in support of the LNA, in an effort to land oil and construction deals in Libya. As many as 2,000 mercenaries in Libya were sent by the Russia-based Wagner Group to fight along the LNA. Russia denied reports that it condones Russians operating in Libya;however, in May 2020, it reportedly provided over a dozen fighter jets.

Turkey Turkey’s involvement in Libya in support of the GNA, is due to a desire for a larger presence in the region. In particular, Turkey seeks to increase its control of energy reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean, and hopes to regain the construction contracts it lost after Qaddafi fell in 2011. In January, Turkey sent more than one hundred officers and two thousand Syrian militants—enticed by promises of Turkish citizenship and higher wages—to fight on behalf of the GNA after several months of providing weapons such as drones (a violation of the UN embargo on weapons). Moreover, Turkey shares the Political Islam ideology and is in favour of Islamist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood.

Militant Groups The lack of strength in Libya’s state institutions has allowed local armed groups to rise. In some areas, they provide much needed law enforcement and security that the state cannot. Small militia also play instrumental roles in the war by providing either of the governments with additional manpower. However, larger Islamist militant groups such as al-Qaeda, and the self-proclaimed Islamic State also operate within the country. Much of the damage done to civilians is done by these rogue groups.

Previous Attempts to Resolve the Issue

Libya Peace Summit in Berlin

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In January 2020, the German government invited the two rivals, Sarraj and Haftar, the heads of state of all the foreign countries directly and indirectly involved, as well as representatives from the EU, the AU and the Arab League. Since the meeting was overseen by the United Nations, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was also present. These high-profile peace talks in Berlin did not result in any lasting truce and Libya went back to violence. A follow up meeting on October 5th 2020,however, yielded much better results. At the end of the conference, Germany's foreign minister was able to voice "cautious optimism" over efforts in Libya. This meeting did yield a key ceasefire deal and as of today (November 9th 2020) has brought a month of relative calm. Now, the international community looks as Libya aims to hold national elections within 9 months. Possible Solutions

One possible solution is: ● A complete ceasefire, ● Negotiations to ensure a transition to a post-Gaddafi, legitimate and representative government. ● Military intervention should be viewed as a last resort, with the civilians’ safety at the highest priority ● On the other hand, given that the nation has been practically split into East and West since 2014, a split Libya is a possible reality. Sources https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/18/war-in-libya-how-did-it-start- what-happens-next https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/whos-who-libyas-war https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/un-libya-envoy-voices-optimism- ahead-of-talks-in-tunisia https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/09/14/this-war-is-out-of-our-hands- internationalization-of-libya-s-post-2011-conflicts-from-proxies-to-boots-on-ground- pub-82695 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53863627 https://www.dw.com/en/libyas-civil-war-whats-behind-the-fight/av-54873237 Mediterranean Model United Nations XVI 2021

Topic 2: The question of advancing responsible state behaviour in cyberspace in the context of free independent elections Introduction In recent years, light has been shed on the issue of data manipulation and its use to alter public opinion, which can seriously distort important democratic procedures like elections and referendums. The overwhelming advancements in cyberspace are said to have had an impact on the outcome of many elections as public opinion can be easily shaped through what we see and read on social media. The cyberspace is a vast world that adapts to the needs of the consumer; Research1 has shown that algorithms created by major companies such as , encourage addiction to their platforms, simultaneously harvesting personal data to target users with ads and posts that greatly sway public opinion and have so far gone largely unregulated.

Definition of Key Terms Responsible state behaviour: government actions that are characterised by trustworthiness and can be relied upon by its citizens to adhere to a moral high ground. Free and fair elections: elections that are a true reflection of the free expression of the will of the people. Data harvesting: a process where a small script, also known as a malicious bot, is used to automatically extract large amounts of data from websites and use it for other purposes. Small script: a program for a specific purpose that automates the execution of tasks. State-sponsored hacktivism: the act of misusing a computer system or network for a socially or politically motivated reason, which is sponsored by the government.

General Overview The right to internet privacy has been a concern since the exponential growth of cyberspace in the 1990s, but serious angst regarding data harvesting has been ever- more prominent after the conspicuousness of the -Cambridge Analytica scandal in March 2018. The scandal became known world-wide with the emergence of a whistle-blower, an ex-Cambridge Analytica employee, .

1 ’s highlights the problem with social media, but what’s the solution?. (2020). Retrieved 5 November 2020, from https://theconversation.com/netflixs-the- social-dilemma-highlights-the-problem-with-social-media-but-whats-the-solution-147351

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Cambridge Analytica worked on campaigns in several key states for a Republican political action committee. Its key objective, according to a memo the Observer has seen, was “voter disengagement” and “to persuade Democrat voters to stay at home”: a profoundly disquieting tactic. It has previously been claimed that suppression tactics were used in the campaign, but this document provides the first actual evidence. The company first worked on ’s campaign, and later in Trump’s presidential campaign in 2016. Targeted posts and ads portrayed political rival, Hillary Clinton, as a criminal. The phrase ‘Crooked Hillary’ with the icon of handcuffs was coined by Cambridge Analytica. In total, more than 87 million users’ data was used by the company.

Damian Tambini, director of the media policy project at the LSE, who leads the group, made up of leading experts in the field, said that new forms of online campaigning had not only changed the ways that political parties target voters but, crucially, had also altered the ability of big money interests to manipulate political debate. “There is a real danger we are heading down the US route where whoever spends the most money is most likely to win. That’s why we’ve always controlled spending in this country. But these controls are no longer working.” Christopher Wylie had also been an anonymous source for an article in 2017 in The Observer/Guardian by Cadwalladr, headlined ‘The Great British Brexit Robbery’2,

2 Cadwalladr, C. (2017). The great British Brexit robbery: how our democracy was hijacked. Retrieved 8 November 2020, from https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/07/the-great-british- brexit-robbery-hijacked-democracy Mediterranean Model United Nations XVI 2021 which dealt with another scandalous operation, which unfolded a series of investigations regarding the legitimacy and legality of the British Brexit Campaign. In 2019, Robert S. Mueller, the former Special Counsel for the United States Department of Justice released the ‘Report on The Investigation into Russian Interference in the 2016 Presidential Election’, also known as the Mueller report. This report uncovered that Russia engaged in extensive attacks on the U.S. election system in 2016: Russian interference in the 2016 election was “sweeping and systemic” Major attack avenues included a social media “information warfare” campaign that “favored” candidate Trump and the hacking of Clinton campaign-related databases and release of stolen materials through Russian-created entities and Wikileaks. Russia also targeted databases in many states related to administering elections gaining access to information for millions of registered voters. Rights to privacy are currently being considered as Human Rights by many advocates that urge for the creation of data protection legislations. David Caroll is an example of such an advocate; he brought his case before the High Court in London in an attempt to recover personal information from Cambridge Analytica. While CA did plead guilty, Caroll’s data was not returned to him. According to the US Director of National Intelligence, over 30 states currently possess cyber- attack capabilities, and such attacks now figure prominently in the intelligence community’s ranking of global threats faced by the United States. 95% of breached records came from only three industries in 2016, with the major one being Governments3. Cyberspace has witnessed a ‘militarisation’ as a growing number of states engage in a variety of cyber operations directed against foreign entities. The rate of this militarisation has outstripped the diplomatic efforts undertaken to provide this unique environment with some ‘rules of the road’. Two years after the Brexit vote in 2016, it was revealed that AggregateIQ had been paid £3.5 million by four pro-Brexit campaigning groups -Vote Leave, Be Leave, Veterans for Britain, and Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party - to design software aimed at aggregating personal data and influencing voters through messaging on social media. Under UK law, coordination between groups during an election is prohibited. In May 2018, a Facebook executive testified before the House of Commons Select Committee for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport that Vote Leave and BeLeave were targeting exactly the same audiences on Facebook via AIQ.

3 Vigliarolo, B. (2017). Forrester: What can we learn from a disastrous year of hacks and breaches?. Retrieved 8 November 2020, from https://www.techrepublic.com/article/forrester-what-can-we- learn- from-a-disastrous-year-of-hacks-and-breaches/

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Major Parties Involved Cambridge Analytica Formerly known as SLC, Cambridge Analytica (CA) was a British political consulting firm which was involved in influencing hundreds of elections globally and that came to prominence through the Facebook–Cambridge Analytica data scandal. The organization is said to have assisted in more than 200 elections around the world, with the most notable examples being in Australia, India, Kenya, Malta, Mexico, UK and the US. In a 2016 speech, , the CEO of Cambridge Analytica, unfurled the company’s methodology: “We’ve rolled out a long-form quantitative instrument to probe the underlying traits that inform personality,” he proclaimed. “If you know the personality of the people you’re targeting, you can nuance your messaging to resonate more effectively with those key groups.”

AggregateIQ AggregateIQ (AIQ) is a Canadian political consultancy and technology company, that ‘integrates, obtains, and normalizes data from disparate sources.’ AIQ has attracted controversy over its involvement in the VoteLeave and BeLeave campaigns in 2016 as well as the CA scandal that broke out in 2018. AIQ created Ripon, a customized campaign software platform that became the prototype used by pro-Brexit campaign groups, including VoteLeave and BeLeave.

Leave.EU Campaign Leave.EU played a decisive role in the British public’s historic vote to leave the EU in 2016. Almost four years later, the campaign remains active as the British government negotiates its full exit from the European bloc.

Palantir Technologies Palantir Technologies is a public American software company that specializes in big data analytics. The company went public in September 2020, 16 years after its inauguration. Palantir is said to be ‘founded on the conviction that it’s essential to preserve fundamental principles of privacy and civil liberties while using data’. However, some4 4 argue that they are relentlessly building the most intrusive,

4 Greenberg, A. (2020). How A ‘Deviant’; Philosopher Built Palantir, A CIA-Funded Data- Mining Juggernaut. Retrieved 8 November 2020, from https://www.forbes.com/sites/andygreenberg/2013/08/14/agent-of-intelligence-how-a-deviant- philosopher-built-palantir-a-cia-funded-data-mining-juggernaut/?sh=7404b5b37785 Mediterranean Model United Nations XVI 2021 nefarious surveillance and analysis tools they possibly can, by being on the bleeding edge of what is societally permissible. Palantir’s stocks are growing rapidly in the past couple of days, starting from the 4th of November 2020, possibly as a response to the US 2020 elections, in conjunction with the need to analyse large data sets. Palantir is said to provide a software platform that enables people to take data is relevant to them and understand it more easily and thoroughly than ever before, using concepts that they already understand. They are applying this vision, at first, to solving problems in the finance sector and the government intelligence community.

USA There are endless connections between the US and CA; Steve Bannon, the former vice-president of CA, was a key adviser to Donald Trump. The connections do not end here; Nigel Farage, the leader of Brexit, has close friendly relations with Donald Trump, as they were seen partying together. The Trump campaign was proven to have worked with CA, as uncovered by the Facebook scandal. Prior to that, the Ted Cruz campaign was also assisted by CA to achieve their desired election outcome. UK Many donors to the UK Conservative Party reportedly have connections to the parent company of Cambridge Analytica. Specifically, Nigel Farage, the Brexit leader campaign.

Russia In early July, Shane Harris of the Wall Street Journal released a series of reports that offered some of the most compelling evidence, yet that Trump’s campaign colluded with Russian hackers. All of the major stakeholders that take part in immoral data mining are continually said to be inevitably entwined by various whistle-blowers, however all of them deny any kind of connection. Wiki leaks WikiLeaks is a multinational media organization founded by its publisher Julian Assange in 2006. WikiLeaks specializes in the analysis and publication of large datasets of censored or otherwise restricted official materials involving war, spying and corruption. It has so far published more than 10 million documents and associated analyses. The organisation has contractual relationships and secure communications paths to more than 100 major media organizations from around the world.

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Key figures: Robert Mercer, owner of former CA Alexander Nix, CEO of former CA , ex CA employee, whistleblower Christopher Wylie, ex CA employee, whistleblower Julian Wheatland, British businessman and Conservative Party politician known for his involvement with the Facebook–CA data scandal.

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Previous Attempts to Resolve the Issue Resolution 68/167 The dominance of the cyberspace over our lives has more prominently been felt in the past couple of years. Some commissions and organisations have been urgently set up to deal with and ameliorate the issue of irresponsibility in elections.

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Examples include: The UN Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) A voluntarily funded, autonomous institute within the United Nations. One of the few policy institutes worldwide focusing on disarmament, UNIDIR generates knowledge and promotes dialogue and action on disarmament and security. Based in Geneva, UNIDIR assists the international community to develop the practical, innovative ideas needed to find solutions to critical security problems. The UN Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) In 2004, the UN General Assembly has established the Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) to examine the impact of developments in ICT on national security and military affairs. The primary mechanism for discussing possible norms of responsible state behaviour has been a series of UN Groups of Governmental Experts (GGE), which have produced three consensus reports over the last decade. The 2015 report recommended a series of principles and confidence-building measures to prevent conflict, but prospects for its implementation have receded as differences amongst states persist over how security concepts should be applied to cyberspace. Renewed efforts to promote responsible state behaviour will require greater engagement on the part of the private sector and civil society, both of which have a huge stake in sustaining cyber peace. The Open-Ended Working Group (OEWG) The OEWG was established by the UN General Assembly in December 2018 (A/RES/73/27). It is tasked to continue to develop the rules, norms, and principles of responsible behaviour of states, discuss ways for their implementation, and to study the possibility of establishing regular institutional dialogue with broad participation under the auspices of the UN.

Possible Solutions ● It is evident that data harvesting should be regulated, if not banned when involuntary. ● An important facet in protecting users all around the world is to establish an independent, UN-led monitoring and regulating committee that can maintain checks and balances on organisations such as CA. ● Another essential course of action is establishing Data Privacy Laws that will be able to be put into practice if another scandal emerges. Legislations will not only act as protective measures, but preventative ones as well. Their existence can help set precedents. ● Protecting Whistle-blowers can also assist in the persecution of malicious data use. ● Additionally, thwarting phishing data attempts comes down to user behaviour and understanding the best way to protect themselves against some of the most common hacking methods; education on the prevalence of Mediterranean Model United Nations XVI 2021

data harvesting can prevent users from unnecessarily dispensing personal data on cyberspace. ● Civil society engagement is also crucial in advancing fair elections; where governments act irresponsibly, citizens must be trained to recognise the objectivity of the information they are overwhelmed with. Appendix/Appendices ● The Cambridge Analytica Scandal explained with diagrams: https://www.vox.com/policy-andpolitics/2018/3/23/17151916/facebook- cambridge-analytica-trump-diagram ● The Social Dilemma (2020), Documentary [Available on Netflix] ● The Great Hack (2019), Documentary [Available on Netflix]

Sources https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/04/us/politics/cambridge-analytica-scandal- fallout.html https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jul/20/the-great-hack-cambridge- analytica-scandal-facebook-netflix https://www.wired.com/story/congress-democrats-trump-inquiry-cambridge- analytica/ https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/16/15657512/cambridge- analytica-facebook-alexander-nix-christopher-wylie https://wikileaks.org/What-is-WikiLeaks.html https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-030-29053-5_18 https://dig.watch/processes/un-gge https://theconversation.com/netflixs-the-social-dilemma-highlights-the-problem- with-social-media-but-whats-the-solution-147351 https://unidir.org https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambridge_Analytica https://leave.eu/about/ https://www.wired.com/story/one-mans-obsessive-fight-to-reclaim-his-cambridge- analytica-data/ https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/01/dark-money-threat-to-uk- elections-integrity https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/10/16/15657512/cambridge- analytica-facebook-alexander-nix-christopher-wylie The ethics of Cybersecurity by Markus Christen, Bert Gordijn and Michele Loi (2020)

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