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MEDIMUN XVI Annual Session 2021 Security Council Research Report

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MEDIMUN XVI Annual Session 2021 Security Council Research Report MEDIMUN XVI Annual Session 2021 Security Council Research Report Mediterranean Model United Nations XVI 2021 Contents Contents 2 Topic 1: The situation in Libya 3 Topic 2: The question of advancing responsible state behaviour in cyberspace in the context of free independent elections 9 Mediterranean Model United Nations XVI 2021 Topic 1: The situation in Libya Introduction Dictator Muammar al-Gaddafi ruled oil-rich Libya for nearly 40 years (1961-2011), but when the end came, it came fast - and the nation hasn’t been the same since. Since the Arab spring movement and Nato bombing campaign that toppled Gaddafi in 2011, Libya has been in chaos. After Gaddafi fell, attempts to transition into democracy disintegrated into a new civil war between rival governments in 2014. Ever since, Libya’s civil war has only escalated further into more of an international war. Key nations in the region, such as Egypt, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and UAE and more distant nations such as France, Italy, Russia and Turkey all have a large stake in solving this complex issue. As of now the UN-recognised Tripoli administration, the Government of National Accord (GNA) and the Tobruk administration, lead the Libyan National Army (LNA), remain in conflict as to who should be in charge of running Libya. General Overview Libya has a 1,770 km long coastline right at the doorstep of Europe. Hence, it has become a key stepping stone for refugees across Africa looking to escape the terrors of their home nations. This influx of desperate people, combined with the chaos of having two governments that believe they should be in Research Report | Page 3 of 17 Mediterranean Model United Nations XVI 2021 control, has made Libya a breeding ground for human smuggling and extremist groups. Moreover, Libya is home to Africa’s biggest oil reserves, which puts it on the radar of other countries. And perhaps most importantly, there are 6 million Libyan people, simply wishing to have a safe and secure future. Since the uprising, more than 200,000 people have been displaced and 1.3 million are in need of humanitarian aid. Casualty numbers are hard to verify, but estimates range from 2,500 to 25,000 during the 2011 uprising alone. Next, let’s look at the roots of this situation: We can trace back this chaos to 2011, when dictator Gaddafi fell to the popular protests known as the Arab Spring swept through the region. However, once Gaddafi was gone, the rebel groups that had united to bring him down, turned against each other. In 2014, a disputed parliamentary election plunged Libya into the chaos we see today. As key institutions like the law enforcement collapsed, two rival administrations emerged - the GNA and the LNA. The western, Tripoli administration, known as the Government of National Accord (GNA), is led by UN-backed prime minister, Fayez al-Sarraj. The eastern, Tobruk administration, known as the Libyan National Army (LNA), is led by renegade general Khalifa Haftar. Mediterranean Model United Nations XVI 2021 These two administrations have two different ‘models’ of power. The GNA is primarily based on Political Islam, while the LNA is primarily based on militarist nationalism. Thirdly, foreign nations play an ever increasing role in the nation due to their own strategic and economic interests. The LNA is supported by Russia, Egypt, UAE and Saudi Arabia (and to lesser extents by France) while the GNA is supported by Qatar, Turkey (and to lesser extents by Italy). The primary reason for those countries to support the LNA is that in their view Libya requires an authoritative figure that can bring stability to the region and fight the spread of Islamic groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood. On the other hand, the primary reasons for said countries to support the GNA is due to the shared ideological framework of Political Islam and support for the Muslim Brotherhood. These foreign nations have flooded Libya with weapons and drones, ignoring a UN arms embargo. For the LNA, both Russia and Sudan have sent mercenaries and men to fight for Haftar. On the other side, Syrian and Turkish recruits and soldiers were sent to defend the GNA. Finally, here’s how the current situation in Libya is: The rivalry escalated quickly in 2019 when Haftar tried, but failed to conquer Tripoli. Since then, the country has been in an impasse of fighting. Since Haftar’s LNA still controls most of the nation’s oil fields, the country’s economy, and in turn the livelihood of its people are very much in his hands. As of November 9th 2020, the region has seen a month or so of relative calm following second peace talks in Berlin. Research Report | Page 5 of 17 Mediterranean Model United Nations XVI 2021 Major Parties Involved Government of National Accord The GNA was established with the United Nations help in 2015, in an effort to unify rival administrations that came out of the country’s disputed 2014 elections. It is currently led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj and is primarily based on Political Islam. While the GNA is based in Libya’s capital, Tripoli, it only controls part of the west and due to lack of resources, has little power on ground. Its armed forces comprise the remains of Libya’s military;however, in addition to local militias, the GNA has around 30,000 fighters. Turkey, Italy, and Qatar provide the GNA with significant military aid. Libya National Army The LNA is a force of 25,000 fighters, led by renegade General Khalifa Haftar, and is an administration primarily based on militarist nationalism. Haftar was a former general who helped Qaddafi seize power; however, he later went on to assist the CIA after breaking with Qaddafi. The LNA today controls large areas of Libya’s east and south. Haftar attempted to claim rule over eastern parts of the country in April 2020, however this has not yet materialized, and his campaign to take Tripoli has collapsed due to opposition from GNA forces. The LNA is primarily supported by France, Egypte, the UAE, and Russia. The LNA has been provided with drones and mercenaries by the UAE and Russia respectively. In January 2020, the LNA cost Libya upwards of $4 billion as it shut down state oil production and exports. Russia Mediterranean Model United Nations XVI 2021 Russia is in support of the LNA, in an effort to land oil and construction deals in Libya. As many as 2,000 mercenaries in Libya were sent by the Russia-based Wagner Group to fight along the LNA. Russia denied reports that it condones Russians operating in Libya;however, in May 2020, it reportedly provided over a dozen fighter jets. Turkey Turkey’s involvement in Libya in support of the GNA, is due to a desire for a larger presence in the region. In particular, Turkey seeks to increase its control of energy reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean, and hopes to regain the construction contracts it lost after Qaddafi fell in 2011. In January, Turkey sent more than one hundred officers and two thousand Syrian militants—enticed by promises of Turkish citizenship and higher wages—to fight on behalf of the GNA after several months of providing weapons such as drones (a violation of the UN embargo on weapons). Moreover, Turkey shares the Political Islam ideology and is in favour of Islamist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood. Militant Groups The lack of strength in Libya’s state institutions has allowed local armed groups to rise. In some areas, they provide much needed law enforcement and security that the state cannot. Small militia also play instrumental roles in the war by providing either of the governments with additional manpower. However, larger Islamist militant groups such as al-Qaeda, and the self-proclaimed Islamic State also operate within the country. Much of the damage done to civilians is done by these rogue groups. Previous Attempts to Resolve the Issue Libya Peace Summit in Berlin Research Report | Page 7 of 17 Mediterranean Model United Nations XVI 2021 In January 2020, the German government invited the two rivals, Sarraj and Haftar, the heads of state of all the foreign countries directly and indirectly involved, as well as representatives from the EU, the AU and the Arab League. Since the meeting was overseen by the United Nations, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was also present. These high-profile peace talks in Berlin did not result in any lasting truce and Libya went back to violence. A follow up meeting on October 5th 2020,however, yielded much better results. At the end of the conference, Germany's foreign minister was able to voice "cautious optimism" over efforts in Libya. This meeting did yield a key ceasefire deal and as of today (November 9th 2020) has brought a month of relative calm. Now, the international community looks as Libya aims to hold national elections within 9 months. Possible Solutions One possible solution is: ● A complete ceasefire, ● Negotiations to ensure a transition to a post-Gaddafi, legitimate and representative government. ● Military intervention should be viewed as a last resort, with the civilians’ safety at the highest priority ● On the other hand, given that the nation has been practically split into East and West since 2014, a split Libya is a possible reality. Sources https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/18/war-in-libya-how-did-it-start- what-happens-next https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/whos-who-libyas-war https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/un-libya-envoy-voices-optimism- ahead-of-talks-in-tunisia https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/09/14/this-war-is-out-of-our-hands- internationalization-of-libya-s-post-2011-conflicts-from-proxies-to-boots-on-ground- pub-82695 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53863627 https://www.dw.com/en/libyas-civil-war-whats-behind-the-fight/av-54873237 Mediterranean Model United Nations XVI 2021 Topic 2: The question of advancing responsible state behaviour in cyberspace in the context of free independent elections Introduction In recent years, light has been shed on the issue of data manipulation and its use to alter public opinion, which can seriously distort important democratic procedures like elections and referendums.
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