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Tyne and Wear Strategic Housing Market Assessment

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Tyne and Wear Strategic Housing Market Assessment in association with Storeys SSP Tyne and Wear Housing Partnership Tyne and Wear Strategic Housing Market Assessment Final Report July 2010 Policy and Strategy Document control sheet Client Tyne and Wear Housing Partnership Document Title Tyne & Wear Strategic Market Housing Assessment Version 10 Status Final Reference 22061_009_TWCR SHMA 2010.doc Author VS / LM / POB Date July 2010 Further copies from email: [email protected] quoting reference Quality assurance by: Valerie Strachan Document history Version Date Author Comments 1 22 June 2009 POB Draft 1 2 01 August 2009 VS / LMcM / POB / SB / VA Draft 2 – bulk of baseline elements complete 3 27 September 09 VS / LMcM / POB / SB / VA Draft 3 – major update of OO section – original tables in version 2 4 02 October 09 VS / LMcM / POB / SB / VA Draft 4 – formatting 5 05 October 09 VS / LMcM / POB / SB / VA Draft 5 – needs and demand section 6 04 November 09 VS / LMcM / POB / SB / VA Draft 6 7 03 December 09 VS / LMcM / POB / SB / VA Draft 7 – substantial revisions based on stakeholder feedback 8 04 January VS / LMcM / POB / VA Draft 8 – draft final 9 05 March VS / LMcM / POB Version 9 - final 10 12 July 2010 VS Version 10 – SG comments and insertions Contact details Main point of contact Telephone number Email address Postal address Valerie Strachan 07974 392 768 [email protected] Tribune Court, 2 Roman Road, Bearsden, Glasgow, G61 2SW Version 10 - Final ii Policy and Strategy CONTENTS SECTION 1: Introduction and Context (Chapter 1) SECTION 2: The Current Housing Market (Chapters 2-6) SECTION 3: The Future Housing Market (Chapter 7) SECTION 4: Housing Need (Chapter 8) SECTION 5: Housing Demand Assessment (Chapter 9) SECTION 6: Housing for Specific Household Groups (Chapter 10) SECTION 7: Conclusions and Monitoring (Chapter 11) 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................7 1.1 Overview..............................................................................................................7 1.2 Purpose ...............................................................................................................7 1.3 Approach .............................................................................................................8 1.4 Housing market areas .........................................................................................9 2 Understanding the drivers shaping the housing market .............................................21 2.1 Overview............................................................................................................21 2.2 Policy and Strategy ...........................................................................................21 2.3 Demographic .....................................................................................................27 2.4 The economy.....................................................................................................30 3 Characteristics of the housing stock ...........................................................................34 3.1 The housing stock .............................................................................................35 3.2 Stock conditions in the private sector................................................................40 3.3 Stock conditions in the social rented sector......................................................44 4 Owner occupied sector ...............................................................................................46 4.2 Structure of the owner-occupied market ...........................................................47 4.3 Affordability........................................................................................................52 4.4 Current market context......................................................................................59 4.5 The view from the market place – the estate agents’ perspective....................63 4.6 Housing market activity .....................................................................................66 5 Private rented sector...................................................................................................82 5.1 Structure of the PRS .........................................................................................83 5.2 Characteristics of the PRS ................................................................................85 5.3 Demand – Household Profiles ..........................................................................87 5.4 Private sector rents ...........................................................................................93 5.5 Market changes.................................................................................................94 6 Social rented sector ....................................................................................................97 6.1 Profile of the stock.............................................................................................98 6.2 Stock change...................................................................................................105 Version 10 - Final iii Policy and Strategy 6.3 Market analysis ...............................................................................................108 7 Section 2: Bringing the evidence together ................................................................121 7.1 Impact of drivers on the Tyne & Wear housing market...................................121 7.2 The rented sectors: tenure change .................................................................123 7.3 The cost between tenure options – a role for intermediate housing? .............123 8 The future housing market ........................................................................................126 8.1 Demographic change ......................................................................................127 8.2 Economic change............................................................................................136 8.3 Housing Supply ...............................................................................................143 9 Housing need ............................................................................................................153 9.1 Introduction......................................................................................................153 9.2 Estimating housing need.................................................................................154 9.3 Current housing need......................................................................................154 9.4 Future housing need .......................................................................................160 9.5 Total housing need..........................................................................................162 9.6 Profile of households in housing need ............................................................166 10 Future housing market – demand assessment.........................................................170 10.1 Introduction......................................................................................................171 10.2 Housing need and demand .............................................................................172 10.3 Local markets ......................................................Error! Bookmark not defined. 11 Housing for vulnerable groups ..................................................................................176 11.1 Overview..........................................................................................................177 11.2 Housing needs of older people .......................................................................178 11.3 Families and overcrowding..............................................................................179 11.4 Households with support needs ......................................................................181 11.5 Asylum Seekers ..............................................................................................184 11.6 Gypsy, Traveller and Travelling Showpeople households ..............................187 11.7 Homelessness.................................................................................................188 11.8 Alternative forms of provision..........................................................................191 12 Conclusions and recommendations..........................................................................193 Appendix A: Additional SRS tables........................................................................................199 Appendix B: Migration tables .................................................................................................206 Appendix C: Hometrack affordability maps, May 2009..........................................................212 Appendix D: Weekly cost of different tenure options by size of property ..............................219 Appendix E: Additional PRS tables........................................................................................226 Appendix F: Additional tables on SRS...................................................................................229 Appendix G: Additional notes on supply figures ....................................................................237 Appendix H: Local Authority Needs Tables ...............................Error! Bookmark not defined. Version 10 - Final iv Policy
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