Final Report Scottish Offshore Wind: Creating an Industry to Scottish Renewables 4 August 2010 IPA Energy + Water Economics Scottish Renewables Scottish Offshore Wind: Creating an Industry to Scottish Renewables Acknowledgements: We would like to thank the supporters of this study: DONG Wind (UK), E.ON Climate & Renewables UK, Fred Olsen Renewables, Neart na Gaoithe Offshore Wind (Mainstream Renewable Power), SeaEnergy Renewables, Scottish Enterprise, Scottish Power Renewables and The Crown Estate. IPA Energy + Water Economics 55 Melville Street Edinburgh EH3 7HL United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) 131 240 0840 Fax: +44 (0) 131 220 6440 Email:
[email protected] web: www.ipaeconomics.com VISION FOR OFFSHORE WIND IN SCOTLAND VISION FOR OFFSHORE WIND IN SCOTLAND IPA Energy + Water Economics (IPA) was commissioned by Scottish Renewables and partners to undertake the study Scottish Offshore Wind: Creating an Industry . The goal of this study was to understand the potential scale of the offshore wind sector and the economic effects related to offshore wind capacity and industry development in Scotland. To this end, IPA modelled a range of scenarios for Scottish offshore wind industry development out to 2020. The scenarios provide four alternative futures for the Scottish offshore wind industry. Scenario A gives a vision of the benefits that Scotland can achieve if it takes decisive steps now. This can be contrasted with our other scenarios. Scenario B demonstrates the effects of more moderate offshore wind development. In Scenario C, Scotland fails to capture the economic benefits of offshore wind development, in much the same way as the onshore wind industry today. The lowest case, Scenario D, shows the consequences if Scotland does not act on the opportunities presented by offshore wind and has few successful projects developed and limited supply chain.