DOCSLIB.ORG

The Soapbox 1-2008.Indd

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
The Soapbox 1-2008.Indd The Soapbox Volume IV Issue 2 March 2008 To protect and protest Diary of an activist disillusioned 11 Heeding the call to service 13 Also in this issue: In praise of Joe Biden 3 The trouble with Hillary 5 Cultural shifts in Spain 17 http://dolphin.upenn.edu/~soapbox The Soapbox Penn’s onlyPenn’s sociopolitical only sociopolitical commentary commentary magazine magazine Letter From the Editor Executive Board Jay Zolle....................................Editor-in-Chief got in a fight with my urban studies professor last week. Alicia Puglionesi.................Productions Manager Or, more accurately, I avoided a fight by being the more Sunita Desai.........................Financial Manager I mature person after she got personally offended because I asked Josh Stanfield.............................Managing Editor if she knew term “conflict theorist” before I used it in a sentence. The “argument” was part of a larger discussion about the qual- Kevin Rodden...............................Senior Writer ity of the assigned reading for the class. Because I’ve been a vocal Brandon Paroly........................Publicity Manager opponent of many of the ideas brought up in the class’s ideologically Lydia Abdo........................Internal Programming homogeneous texts, she was concerned that I was being “dismis- sive” of the authors without actually reading the articles carefully to understand the “nuances” of their arguments. I explained that, even Editorial Board Corrina Provey.....................................................’09 though I think most of them are tired old academics re-publishing dated, regressive ideas, I actually enjoy reading articles with which Nathan Green......................................................’10 I disagree. Rather than simply cruising through the pages at break- Bill Shotzbarger...................................................’10 neck speed so I can watch more episodes of The Office, reading ridic- Greg Rollman ..................................................’11 ulous arguments that are convoluted at best and pedantic at worst Nantina Vgontzas...............................................’11 forces me to step back and think critically about what I am reading. Alvin Yap............................................................’11 And for us College kids who believe in the value of a liberal arts edu- cation, critical engagement is basically what we’re paying for. If you’re reading this letter, you are hopefully gearing up to read Staff Writers the rest of this stellar sociopolitical publication. And since The Soap- Al Moran..........................................................’09 box is an open forum representing a diverse group of student writ- Joshua Roberts..................................................’09 ers, you are bound to come across ideas with which you respectfully Bob Ma............................................................’10 (or not so respectfully) disagree. On behalf of liberal arts education Emerson Brooking............................................’11 advocates everywhere, I challenge you to engage with our authors Noah Rosenstein...............................................’11 and express your criticism or support. Our writers shouldn’t have Gideon Spitzer..................................................’11 the final say; you have the right to challenge them and keep the dia- Rachel omas.................................................’11 logue going. The Soapbox is designed to stimulate conversation and Dave Frankenfield............................................’11 thought, and you can keep these discussions active by contacting Josh Rittenberg................................................’11 our authors with your thoughts and counter-opinions. I welcome you to engage with The Soapbox by emailing us at Guest Writers [email protected] - just note the article that your letter Joe Giese..........................................................’09 addresses. Our authors aren’t writing just to hear their own voices; they want to spark a broader conversation on campus. Big things are Art provided by Alicia Puglionesi happening in this country and in the world, so if you have an opinion, Photographs by Joe Giese and Will Nunnally now’s the time to speak up. Copyright 2008 e Soapbox. It is forbidden to make any Respectfully, reproductions, in whole or in part, without the express Jay Zolle consent of e Soapbox. Executive Editor The Soapbox is an independent student publication of the University of Pennsyl- vania. We strive to provide a balanced and non-partisan publication that critically examines relevant social, economic, and political issues. All articles are chosen by a Board of Editors based on argumentative merit and relevance. All opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author(s) and do not in anyway reflect the opinions or the endorsement of the Editors. The Soapbox Your Take Soapbox editor Nantina Vgontzas asked how you Contents would vote in a hypothetical White House race between Stephen Colbert, Oprah Winfrey, and What could have been Larry King. 3 Biden’s failed presidential bid is the voters’ loss. “I’d choose Colbert. He seems Emerson Brooking very intelligent and knowledgeable about current events, and although The Ron Paul factor he may not have much experience, 4 How a hopeless candidate won the hearts I think he’d be able to learn quickly and fill the position well.” and minds of a cynical generation. -Chelsea Germak, College ‘09 Dave Frankenfield The trouble with Hillary “Larry King: He prob- 5 ably has the most experience America’s first viable woman candidate comes in dealing with diverse people. with too much baggage for the job. Oprah and Colbert are entertain- By Al Moran ers, and I don’t think the purpose of the president is to entertain the American people. They have to be a real person, not just someone who puts on a persona, which is probably reflective of most candi- The Attorney General and the dates in the real presidential elec- 7 tion; you can’t tell if who they present themselves waterboard now is who they will be in office.” Bush’s appointee refuses to condemn torture. -Morgan Hennessy, College ‘09 By Rachel Thomas “Colbert: I like his show, and I 8 The challenge of guerilla warfare don’t like the other people. He’s Has the U.S. military forgotten the lessons of Vietnam? highly critical of the way things are now; he sees the absurdity of the By Noah Rosenstein ways people do things.” Latin America veers left -Kieran Boyle, Wharton ‘11 10 Chavez and company are sounding a hollow socialist mantra. Soapbox editor Nathan Green asked how you feel about a mandatory military service requirement for By Josh Rittenberg young adults. 11 Diary of an activist disillusioned “I don’t think that we should Achieving global change is no easy matter be forced to go into the mil- when you’re too young to buy a beer. itary, but if people want to join, they can.” By Bob Ma - Abhi Hendi, Engineering, 2010 Heeding the call 13 The benefits of mandatory military service. By Gideon Spitzer “I guess I would push it towards compulsory service of Many faces, one America some sort, maybe not as much 15 Are we a melting pot, a patchwork quilt, or a tossed salad? military service...there’s a lot of positive change that young It’s time to get over our identity issues. people can make.” By Kevin Rodden -Matt Doumar, Wharton, 2009 16 I learned journalism from “I don’t think it’s a good idea Stephen T. Colbert because there are certain people And so can you! who are selfish and you’ve got to By Myrna Minkoff let them be selfish. If they don’t want to fight overseas, they’re The sacred and the profane not going to do a good job there 17 Spain struggles to preserve traditions as glo- anyway.” balization looms. -Akhil Kamani, Engineering/ By Joe Giese Wharton, 2010 The Soapbox, March 2008 2 Election 2008 Underdogs What could have been Biden’s failed bid is the voter’s loss age of 29, he initiatives, most recently the Biden- was confronted Brownback resolution supporting the almost immedi- federalization of the Iraqi government. ately with the Unlike the other Democratic candidates, deaths of his Biden refused to hasten the end of wife and infant the Iraq war by withholding funds. He daughter and fought hard for legislation to increase serious injuries to funding for IED-resistant vehicles, to the his two sons when vocal disapproval of the Democratic Par- By Emerson Brooking a drunk driver struck ty’s anti-war left. Said Biden, “[I]f you their car. Urged by friends not to resign tell me I’ve got to take away this pro- hile Obama, Clinton, and his post, Biden persevered and has gone tection for these kids in order to win WEdwards were fighting a on to lead the sixth longest career among the election, some things aren’t worth it. vicious, highly publicized currently elected Senators. Committed Some things are worth losing over.” battle in the months leading up to the Regrettably, these credentials Democratic presidential primaries, the “The issue here is not why amounted to little in a race crowded with candidate most qualified for the job – Joe Biden should have received possible “firsts.” Barak Obama, poten- Biden – found himself quietly shunted the Democratic nomination, tially America’s first African-American into a corner. but why his campaign should president, ran a campaign that portrayed Despite campaign season accom- him as an agent for change looking to plishments like a bipartisan resolution have garnered far more cleanse the wicked
Load more

Recommended publications
  • David M. Zuniga the Action Plan to Enforce Our
    The action plan to enforce our Constitution, Bring Congress Home, and Reclaim American Life David M. Zuniga Founder, AmericaAgain! Fourth Edition Fourth Edition The action plan to enforce our Constitution, Bring Congress Home, and Reclaim American life David M. Zuniga Founder, AmericaAgain! Copyright © 2016 by David M. Zuniga FEAR The People (Fourth Edition) by David M. Zuniga Printed in the United States of America ISBN 978 1 5300 1921 2 All rights reserved solely by the author, who warrants that other than American founding documents in the public domain and noted quotations, all contents* are original and do not infringe upon the legal rights of any other person or work. AmericaAgain!™, America’s House™, Indictment Engine™, the Constitution and quill logo, FEAR The People™, and Rolling Revere™ trademarks of AmericaAgain! Trust Foundation & Dentes Decimum, LLC. This book may be freely reproduced in any form but not for sale, with copyright credit to the author. March 23, 2016 revision www.AmericaAgain.net *The king on the cover illustration was created using a non-copyrighted, often-copied image from software vendor SEGA. Acknowledgments & Dedication Lord Acton wrote, “Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Great men are almost always bad men.” In politics, academia, science, business, media and even religion, the record of history confirms Acton’s aphorism. True greatness is found in a heart of non-negotiable norms and nobility; a life that transforms the world for good. Most so- called ‘conservative’ and/or ‘Christian’ leaders today are polished but treacherous, seeking their own career advancement over real reformation.
    [Show full text]
  • ("DSCC") Files This Complaint Seeking an Immediate Investigation by the 7
    COMPLAINT BEFORE THE FEDERAL ELECTION CBHMISSIOAl INTRODUCTXON - 1 The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee ("DSCC") 7-_. J _j. c files this complaint seeking an immediate investigation by the 7 c; a > Federal Election Commission into the illegal spending A* practices of the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee (WRSCIt). As the public record shows, and an investigation will confirm, the NRSC and a series of ostensibly nonprofit, nonpartisan groups have undertaken a significant and sustained effort to funnel "soft money101 into federal elections in violation of the Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971, as amended or "the Act"), 2 U.S.C. 5s 431 et seq., and the Federal Election Commission (peFECt)Regulations, 11 C.F.R. 85 100.1 & sea. 'The term "aoft money" as ueed in this Complaint means funds,that would not be lawful for use in connection with any federal election (e.g., corporate or labor organization treasury funds, contributions in excess of the relevant contribution limit for federal elections). THE FACTS IN TBIS CABE On November 24, 1992, the state of Georgia held a unique runoff election for the office of United States Senator. Georgia law provided for a runoff if no candidate in the regularly scheduled November 3 general election received in excess of 50 percent of the vote. The 1992 runoff in Georg a was a hotly contested race between the Democratic incumbent Wyche Fowler, and his Republican opponent, Paul Coverdell. The Republicans presented this election as a %ust-win81 election. Exhibit 1. The Republicans were so intent on victory that Senator Dole announced he was willing to give up his seat on the Senate Agriculture Committee for Coverdell, if necessary.
    [Show full text]
  • Scoville, Curtailing the Cudgel of "Coordination"
    Curtailing the Cudgel of “Coordination” by Curing Confusion: How States Can Fix What the Feds Got Wrong on Campaign Finance GEORGE S. SCOVILLE III* I. INTRODUCTION.......................................................................... 465 II. FEDERAL COORDINATION DOCTRINE ........................................ 475 A. Establishing the Regime .............................................. 475 1. The Federal Election Campaign Act and Buckley’s Curious Dual Anti-Corruption Rationale ................ 475 2. The Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act, the FEC’s Coordination Regulations, and Recent Cases .......... 482 B. Hypos Showing Ambiguity in Federal Conduct Standards ...................................................... 487 1. The Coffee Shop Hypo........................................... 487 2. The Photo Hypo ..................................................... 488 3. The Polling Hypo ................................................... 489 * Editor-in-Chief, Volume 48 The University of Memphis Law Review; Candidate for Juris Doctor and Business Law Certificate, 2018, The University of Memphis Cecil C. Humphreys School of Law; Master of Public Policy, 2011, American University School of Public Affairs. For Emily, whose steadfast love has been the sine qua non of my studies. Thank you to countless family, friends, colleagues, and mentors for boundless guidance and support, especially Capital University Josiah H. Blackmore II/Shirley M. Nault Professor of Law Bradley A. Smith, Cecil C. Humphreys School of Law Professors Steven J. Mulroy and John M. Newman, and my colleagues, past and present, at The University of Memphis Law Review, especially Callie Tran, Liz Stagich, and Connor Dugosh. “If I have seen further, it is by standing on ye shoulders of giants.” Letter from Isaac Newton to Robert Hooke (Feb. 5, 1675) (on file with the Historical Society of Pennsylvania), http://digitallibrary.hsp.org/index.php/Detail/Object/Show/object_id/9285. 463 464 The University of Memphis Law Review Vol.
    [Show full text]
  • Congressional Record United States Th of America PROCEEDINGS and DEBATES of the 117 CONGRESS, FIRST SESSION
    E PL UR UM IB N U U S Congressional Record United States th of America PROCEEDINGS AND DEBATES OF THE 117 CONGRESS, FIRST SESSION Vol. 167 WASHINGTON, TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 21, 2021 No. 163 House of Representatives The House met at 9 a.m. and was To these iconic images, history has school sweetheart, 4.1 GPA at Oakmont called to order by the Speaker pro tem- now added another: that of a young High School, ‘‘one pretty badass ma- pore (Mrs. DEMINGS). marine sergeant in full combat gear rine,’’ as her sister put it. She could f cradling a helpless infant in her arms have done anything she wanted, and amidst the unfolding chaos and peril in what she wanted most was to serve her DESIGNATION OF SPEAKER PRO the besieged Kabul Airport and pro- country and to serve humanity. TEMPORE claiming: ‘‘I love my job.’’ Who else but a guardian angel amidst The SPEAKER pro tempore laid be- The entire story of the war in Af- the chaos and violence of those last fore the House the following commu- ghanistan is told in this picture: the days in Kabul could look beyond all nication from the Speaker: sacrifices borne by young Americans that and look into the eyes of an infant WASHINGTON, DC, who volunteered to protect their coun- and proclaim: ‘‘I love my job’’? September 21, 2021. try from international terrorism, the Speaking of the fallen heroes of past I hereby appoint the Honorable VAL BUT- heroism of those who serve their coun- wars, James Michener asked the haunt- LER DEMINGS to act as Speaker pro tempore try even when their country failed ing question: Where do we get such on this day.
    [Show full text]
  • NPRC) VIP List, 2009
    Description of document: National Archives National Personnel Records Center (NPRC) VIP list, 2009 Requested date: December 2007 Released date: March 2008 Posted date: 04-January-2010 Source of document: National Personnel Records Center Military Personnel Records 9700 Page Avenue St. Louis, MO 63132-5100 Note: NPRC staff has compiled a list of prominent persons whose military records files they hold. They call this their VIP Listing. You can ask for a copy of any of these files simply by submitting a Freedom of Information Act request to the address above. The governmentattic.org web site (“the site”) is noncommercial and free to the public. The site and materials made available on the site, such as this file, are for reference only. The governmentattic.org web site and its principals have made every effort to make this information as complete and as accurate as possible, however, there may be mistakes and omissions, both typographical and in content. The governmentattic.org web site and its principals shall have neither liability nor responsibility to any person or entity with respect to any loss or damage caused, or alleged to have been caused, directly or indirectly, by the information provided on the governmentattic.org web site or in this file. The public records published on the site were obtained from government agencies using proper legal channels. Each document is identified as to the source. Any concerns about the contents of the site should be directed to the agency originating the document in question. GovernmentAttic.org is not responsible for the contents of documents published on the website.
    [Show full text]
  • The Internet-Ilization of American Parties: the Implications of the Unity08 Effort
    The Internet-ilization of American Parties: The Implications of the Unity08 Effort Ron Rapoport and Kira Allman College of William and Mary Daniel Maliniak University of California, San Diego Lonna Rae Atkeson University of New Mexico Paper Presented at “2009 State of the Parties Conference,” Sponsored by Ray Bliss Institute, University of Akron. Abstract Unity08 was the first fully on-line political party, founded by Doug Bailey, Gerald Rafshoon, and Hamilton Jordan in 2005. Its nomination and platform were to be determined in an on-line convention of its members in June, 2008. It disappeared long before its proposed convention, but given its technological innovations, its membership, recruitment, and activists remain interesting in their own right. We compare Unity08 members to ANES respondents and to a subsample of CCAP respondents who were active in one of the major party primary campaigns, finding a variety of differences, but also similarities. We then examine the causes of differential activity in Unity08, and conclude with an analysis of the degree to which activity in a short-lived third party might still carryover to activity in the major parties in 2008. The 2008 election generated a significant amount of buzz, in part because of the prominent inclusion of technology on the political frontlines (Hoffman, 2007). The internet played a particularly notable role, becoming integrated into the presidential campaigns and allowing contenders from Barack Obama to Ron Paul to organize events, and mobilize their on-line supporters, and raise substantial amounts from small contributions given over the web (Terhune, 2008). This surge in internet activity was presaged by the prominence of MoveOn.org, political weblogs and the success of the Howard Dean campaign in 2004.
    [Show full text]
  • 2012 a Great Leap Forward for 'Third Parties'? | the Bloomington Alternative
    2/20/12 2012 a great leap forward for 'third parties'? | The Bloomington Alternative SOCIAL ACTIVISM | POLITICS | OCCUPY! | ECONOMIC JUSTICE | ALTERNATIVE PARTIES 2012 a great leap forward for 'third parties'? Some could be influential; ballot access will be a key factor by Steven Higgs February 19, 2012 Americans' faith in the two-party system of governance may have plummeted to the point where alternative candidates and parties like Dr. Jill Stein and the Green Party, former Democratic Salt Lake City Mayor Rocky Anderson and his new Justice Party, renegade Republican Congressman Ron Paul and/or his former Libertarian Party, or the Socialist Party USA just might have a impact. "The mood of the country is toxic," Daily Beast contributor Douglas Schoen wrote on Feb. 14, 2012, echoing a growing conversation about the roles "third parties" might play in this year's presidential election. The day before, Huffington Post bloggers Sheri and Allan Rivlin posted what they called a "bold" prediction that there will be multiple alternative party surges before votes are finally cast on Nov. 6. "There will not be one 'third party' candidate in 2012," they wrote, stressing that the phrase is a misnomer anyway. "There will be lots of minor party and independent candidates for president. Several of them may seem like a pretty big deal, at "Dissatisfaction with the least for a period of a few weeks, in the long campaign cycle yet to unfold." state of our country is at One that is getting national attention is Americans Elect, the record levels. Seventy- subject of Schoen's piece, which rejects the idea of parties altogether.
    [Show full text]
  • The Christian Right and Israel: a Love Story?
    W&M ScholarWorks Undergraduate Honors Theses Theses, Dissertations, & Master Projects 4-2017 The Christian Right and Israel: A Love Story? Joseph Malanson College of William and Mary Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.wm.edu/honorstheses Part of the American Politics Commons, and the Christianity Commons Recommended Citation Malanson, Joseph, "The Christian Right and Israel: A Love Story?" (2017). Undergraduate Honors Theses. Paper 1113. https://scholarworks.wm.edu/honorstheses/1113 This Honors Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Theses, Dissertations, & Master Projects at W&M ScholarWorks. It has been accepted for inclusion in Undergraduate Honors Theses by an authorized administrator of W&M ScholarWorks. For more information, please contact [email protected]. 0 Table of Contents Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................... 1 Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ 2 I. Introduction: Israel, Evangelicals, and the Christian Right ........................................................ 3 II. Interest Groups, Religion, and American Foreign Policy: The Literature .............................. 10 III. Hypotheses and Data Descriptions ........................................................................................ 31 IV. Israel, the Christian Right, and Republican Party Presidential Primaries
    [Show full text]
  • The Tea Party in the Age of Obama: Mainstream Conservatism Or Out-Group Anxiety?
    // D R A F T // THE TEA PARTY IN THE AGE OF OBAMA: MAINSTREAM CONSERVATISM OR OUT-GROUP ANXIETY? MATT A. BARRETO, BETSY L. COOPER, BENJAMIN GONZALEZ, CHRISTOPHER S. PARKER, CHRISTOPHER TOWLER1 ABSTRACT With its preference for small government and fiscal responsibility, the Tea Party movement claims to be conservative. Yet, their tactics and rhetoric belie this claim. The shrill attacks against blacks, illegal immigrants, and gay rights are all consistent with conservatism, but suggesting that the president is a socialist bent on ruining the country, is beyond politics. This paper shows that Richard Hofstadter’s thesis about the “paranoid style” of American politics helps characterize the Tea Party’s pseudo-conservatism. Through a comprehensive analysis of qualitative interviews, content analysis and public opinion data, we find that Tea Party sympathizers are not mainstream conservatives, but rather, they hold a strong sense of out-group anxiety and a concern over the social and demographic changes in America. ____________________ Political Power and Social Theory, Volume 22 Copyright © 2011 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited All rights of reproduction in any form reserved ISSN: 0198-8719 / 9780857249111 1 INTRODUCTION In 2010 the Tea Party boasted major electoral wins in the U.S. House and Senate defeating both incumbent Republican and Democratic lawmakers alike. These results should come as no great surprise, given the widespread support the movement enjoys. The Tea Party claims a core membership of approximately 300,000 who have signed up to be members of at least one of the national Tea Party groups: 1776 Tea Party, ResistNet (Patriot Action network), Tea Party Express, Tea Party Nation, and Tea Party Patriots.
    [Show full text]
  • 2012 ABC/Yahoo!/WMUR New Hampshire GOP Primary Debate (Transcr
    2012 ABC/Yahoo!/WMUR New Hampshire GOP primary debate (Transcr... http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/2012-abcyah... Print Subscription Conversations Today's Paper Going Out Guide Jobs Cars Real Estate Rentals Classifieds Personalize Campaign 2012 Congress Courts & Law The Fed Page Health Care Polling White House Blogs & Columns Issues: Energy In the News William Daley Mitt Romney Santorum sweater vests Supreme Court Jon Huntsman Ron Paul Search The Washington Post How to Exercise Your Brain to Make It Strong The 5 Stupidest Things You Follow @PostPolitics on Twitter | Fan us on Facebook | Subscribe Can Do If You Have Too Much Debt SEARCH THIS BLOG Posted at 11:38 PM ET, 01/07/2012 2012 ABC/Yahoo!/WMUR New Hampshire GOP primary debate (Transcript) How the Little Guy is Making Fast Money in the By Felicia Sonmez Stock Exchange SUBSCRIBE Below is a transcript of Saturday night’s ABC News /Yahoo!/WMUR-TV Select ... New Hampshire Republican primary debate , courtesy of FDCH POST BLOGS Transcripts: Read more from our colleagues at the Post. REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES PARTICIPATE IN A DEBATE SPONSORED BY ABC NEWS The Fix Behind the Numbers JANUARY 7, 2011 Fact Checker The Take 44 | White House SPEAKERS: FORMER SEN. RICK SANTORUM, R-PA., Featured Blogs & Columns Wonkblog PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE Election 2012 News and conversation about the 2012 CANDIDATE PROFILES elections. FORMER REP. NEWT GINGRICH, R-GA., Barack Obama Mitt Romney PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE 2Chambers Rick Perry Inside the 112th Congress Michele Bachmann REP. RON PAUL, R-TEXAS, Jon Huntsman Ron Paul PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE Herman Cain 44 Newt Gingrich The Obama presidency Rick Santorum FORMER GOV.
    [Show full text]
  • Will 2012 Be the Year of the Third Parties? » Print
    2/20/12 Counterpunch: Tells the Facts, Names the Names » Will 2012 be the Year of the Third Parties? » Print This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. FEBRUARY 20, 2012 Some Could be Influential; Ballot Access will be a Key Factor Will 2012 be the Year of the Third Parties? by STEVEN HIGGS Americans’ faith in the two-party system of governance may have plummeted to the point where alternative candidates and parties like Dr. Jill Stein and the Green Party, former Democratic Salt Lake City Mayor Rocky Anderson and his new Justice Party, renegade Republican Congressman Ron Paul and/or his former Libertarian Party, or the Socialist Party USA just might have a impact. “The mood of the country is toxic,” Daily Beast contributor Douglas Schoen wrote on Feb. 14, 2012, echoing a growing conversation about the roles “third parties” might play in this year’s presidential election. The day before, Huffington Post bloggers Sheri and Allan Rivlin posted what they called a “bold” prediction that there will be multiple alternative party surges before votes are finally cast on Nov. 6. “There will not be one ‘third party’ candidate in 2012,” they wrote, stressing that the phrase is a misnomer anyway. “There will be lots of minor party and independent candidates for president. Several of them may seem like a pretty big deal, at least for a period of a few weeks, in the long campaign cycle yet to unfold.” One that is getting national attention is Americans Elect, the subject of Schoen’s piece, which rejects the idea of parties altogether.
    [Show full text]
  • The Extent of Price Misalignment in Prediction Markets*
    THE EXTENT OF PRICE MISALIGNMENT IN PREDICTION MARKETS* David Rothschild David Pennock Microsoft Research Microsoft Research [email protected] [email protected] ResearchDMR.com DPennock.com Abstract We examine the extent to which prices for logically related contracts in prediction markets are contradictory, and the practical amount of arbitrage profits that can result. Price misalignment between identical contracts on different exchanges, representing between 1 and 5 percent net earnings, are common and can persist for months, even in the face of high liquidity. Observing the trading of over three thousand dollars of contracts in a randomized trial, we uncover a significant shadow order book representing price support well beyond the published demand, implying that absolute arbitrage profits are significantly higher than what a purely observational analysis would reveal. While, risk, combined with higher costs, could deter a small individual investor, there are clear arbitrage opportunities for institutional investors. Price misalignment even occurs among identical and logically related contracts listed on the same exchange, although these situations cluster around moments of high information flow. Even when misalignment does not represent arbitrage, related markets react in ways that suggest bounded rationality. Some contracts simply shut down when there are high levels of activity in another related contract; traders unnecessarily withdraw orders that exceed even the most wildly pessimistic outcome of an ongoing event. There is a consistent asymmetry between buying and selling across many exchanges, leaving the average return for selling (which is cognitively more complex as implemented by the exchanges) higher than for buying. We find other evidence of weak‐form inefficiency: prices on one exchange have significant correlation with 12‐hour lagged prices on a second exchange.
    [Show full text]