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友发国际（YHI International） S$0.375 @18/11/05 ING S 与横滨（Yokohama）再组合资? 目标价: S$0.60 工业

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友发国际（YHI International） S$0.375 @18/11/05 ING S 与横滨（Yokohama）再组合资? 目标价: S$0.60 工业 企业近况 2005 年 11 月 21 日 RE 表现超越大市 保留 APO 友发国际（YHI International） S$0.375 @18/11/05 ING S 与横滨（Yokohama）再组合资? 目标价: S$0.60 工业 YHI SP / YHII.SI Calin Toh +65 6210-8604 – [email protected] MICA (P) 021/09/2005 • 与横滨（Yokohama）再另组合资。友发国际与横滨橡胶（Yokohama Rubber Co (YRC)正商讨 06 年 4 月在上海成立轮胎销售合资的事宜。如 果一切顺利，友发国际将代理横滨轮胎（轿车，轻型卡车，卡车，巴士 等）在中国的所有轮胎产品。目前，友发国际只负责在中国代理横滨橡 胶的载客汽车轮胎。这新合资可加速友发在中国的盈利增长。 • 干扰是非循环性质的。根据管理层的解释，制造业务的 05 第三季营收之 所以比去年同期下滑 12%，是因为上海工厂停机超过 10 天的缘故。技术 故障 05 年 8 月时已经解决。友发将增产以应付内部销售目标，并相信这 偶然一次的事件将不会影响未来的生产。 • 调降预估数字但保留表现超越大市评价。我们将 05 财年盈利预估削减 10%以反映 05 年 9 个月比预期疲弱的业绩。我们 06-07 财年的预估数字 也削减 1-2%。我们的新目标价为 0.60 新元(之前 0.73 新元)，与 06 历 年的 10 倍本益比挂钩(之前为 05-06 历年综合 14 倍)，与同业的 7-11 倍 并齐。股价还有 60%的上升空间，我们保留表现超越大市的评价。 财务概况 截至12月财年 2003 2004 2005估 2006估 2007估 营收(百万新元) 220.7 291.3 34 3.2 4 30.2 472.1 折旧摊销息税前盈利(百万新元) 24.4 32.5 3 7.6 5 2.8 59.2 折旧摊销息税前利润(%) 11. 0 11.1 1 1.0 1 2.3 12.5 税前盈利(百万新元) 19 . 2 26.3 3 0.1 4 4.3 50.6 净利(百万新元) 14 . 6 20.3 2 3.0 3 4.9 39.5 每股盈利(分) 3.7 4.2 4 .2 6 .0 6.8 每股盈利增长(%) +9% +14% -0% +43% +13% 本益比(倍) 10 . 3 9.0 9 .0 6 .3 5.6 每股股息总额(分) 0.6 0.6 0 .7 0 .8 1.0 股息收益(%) 1. 6 1.6 1 .8 2 .1 2.5 股价/有形资产净值(倍) 2.1 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.2 权益报酬率(%) 24.0 21.2 2 0.1 2 5.1 23.1 每股现金净额(新元) (0.02) (0.04) ( 0.02) ( 0.00) 0.02 股价对现金流量比(倍) 13 . 8 12.1 1 2.2 7 .9 6.7 企值/折旧摊销息税前盈利(倍) 9.5 7.1 6 .1 4 .4 3.9 每股盈余预估更动百分比 - - (9 .8) ( 1.5) (2.2) 联昌国际(新)/市场共识(倍) - - 1. 0 4 1 .00 0.84 Source: Company, CIMB-GK estimates/Research, Bloomberg 市值与股价资讯 市值(百万新元） S$216.3m 股价表现(%) 1M 3M 12M 0.5 1.2 12个月价格范畴 S$0.36/ S$0.50 相对 (1 0.8) (15.2) (24.8) 1.0 0.4 3个月日均成交量 S$0.17m 绝对 (8 .6) (14.9) (15.4) 0.8 0.3 # 股票数目(百万) 584.6 主要股东 所有% Volume (million) (R.H. SCALE) 0.6 YHI INTERNATIONAL LIMITED 0.2 RELATIVE TO STI (R.H. SCALE) 估计自由流动量(%) 40 Richard Tay Tian Hoe / YHI Holdings 63.6 0.4 0.1 0.2 Temasek Holdings 6.2 0.0 0.0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Source: Company, CIMB-GK estimates/Research, Bloomberg, Reuters estimates 表一: 财务表现 Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this publication. 集团营收 集团税后盈利 S$m 350 S$m 25 300 250 20 200 15 150 291.3 10 20.3 220.7 221.8 246.6 14.6 14.9 17.0 100 176.9 5 11.4 50 0 0 FY02 FY03 FY04 9M04 9M05 FY02 FY03 FY04 9M04 9M05 Source: Company 表二:毛利率对比 友发国际 同业 9M04 9M05 年比% 9M04 9M05 年比% 营收(百万新元) 221.8 246.6 11% 54.1 74.6 38% 毛利(百万新元) 58.6 62.5 7% 11.9 13.5 13% 毛利率 26.4% 25.3% -4% 22.0% 18.0% -18% Source: Company, CIMB-GK estimates, Bloomberg [ 2 ] 财务报表 损益表(百万新元,截至12月财年) 2003 2004 2005估 2006估 2007估 营收 220.7 291.3 34 3.2 4 30.2 472.1 营运开支 (196.3) (258.8) ( 305.6) ( 377.5) (412.9) 折旧摊销息税前盈利 24.4 32.5 3 7.6 5 2.8 59.2 折旧与摊销 (3.7) (5.2) ( 6.0) ( 7.0) (7.0) 息税前盈利 20.6 27.3 3 1.6 4 5.8 52.2 利息与投资净收 (1. 4 ) (1. 0 ) ( 1. 5 ) ( 1. 5 ) (1. 6 ) 联营贡献 - - - - - 非经常项目 - - - - - 税前盈利 19.2 26.3 3 0.1 4 4.3 50.6 税务 (3.7) (5.6) ( 6.6) ( 8.9) (10 . 1) 少数股东权益 (0.9) (0.3) ( 0.5) ( 0.5) (1. 0 ) 净利 14.6 20.3 2 3.0 3 4.9 39.5 加权股(百万) 400.7 487.2 552 .1 5 84.6 584.6 年终股数量(百万) 487.2 487.2 584 .6 5 84.6 584.6 资产负债表(百万新元,12月31日) 2003 2004 2005估 2006估 2007估 固定资产 42.9 51.5 5 9.2 6 8.1 78.3 无形资产 - - - - - 其他长期资产 1. 7 6.7 6 .5 6 .5 6.5 非流动资产总额 44.5 58.2 6 5.7 7 4.6 84.8 现金及可当现金 24.4 19.1 2 2.0 2 5.3 29.1 存货 37.2 55.5 6 1.1 6 7.2 73.9 应收账款 43.9 52.2 5 7.4 6 3.1 69.4 其他流动资产 2.5 3.8 4 .5 5 .0 5.0 流动资产总额 108.0 130.7 145. 0 160. 6 177.5 应付账款 27.0 37.3 3 9.2 4 1.1 43.2 短期借贷 23.2 30.4 2 6.9 1 6.6 6.0 其他流动负债 1. 4 2.9 6 .6 8 .9 10.1 流动负债总额 51.6 70.7 7 2.7 6 6.6 59.3 长期借贷 10 . 0 8.9 9 .0 9 .0 9.0 其他长期负债 2.3 2.0 2 .0 2 .1 2.1 长期负债总额 12.3 10.8 1 1.0 1 1.1 11.1 股东资金 87.2 104.7 124. 1 154. 3 188.3 少数股东权益 1. 4 2.7 3 .0 3 .3 3.6 每股有形资产净值(新元) 0.18 0.21 0 .21 0 .26 0.32 现金流动(百万,截至12月财年) 2003 2004 2005估 2006估 2007估 税前盈利 19 . 2 26.3 3 0.1 4 4.3 50.6 折旧与非现金开支调整 3.6 6.2 7 .5 9 .0 9.0 营运资金之更动 (9.6) (16 . 3 ) ( 8.9) ( 9.9) (11. 0 ) 付税现金 (3.2) (3.2) ( 3.2) ( 3.2) (3.2) 其他 (2.4) (1. 6 ) ( 2.4) ( 2.5) (2.6) 营运流动现金 7.6 11.3 2 3.1 3 7.6 42.8 资本开支 (7.2) (15 . 8 ) ( 7.7) ( 8.9) (10 . 2 ) 投资净额及销售固定资产 - (5.0) - - - 其他 - - - - - 投资项目流动现金 (7.2) (20.8) ( 7.7) ( 8.9) (10.2) 贷款增加/(偿还) (24.2) 6.1 ( 3.4) ( 10 . 3 ) (10 . 6 ) 债权增加/(偿还) 42.9 - - - - 派发股息 (5.7) (2.0) ( 2.9) ( 3.6) (4.6) 现金利息及其他 2.2 (0.0) ( 6.2) ( 11. 5 ) (13 . 5 ) 融资流动现金 15.1 4.1 ( 12.5) ( 25.5) (28.8) 现金变动 15.5 (5.3) 2 .9 3 .3 3.8 现金净额变动/(债务) 39.8 (11.5) 6 .3 1 3.6 14.4 期终现金净额/(债务) (8.7) (20.2) ( 13.9) ( 0.3) 14.1 主要比率(截至12月财年) 2003 2004 2005估 2006估 2007估 营收增长(%) 24.7 32.0 1 7.8 2 5.3 9.7 折旧摊销息税前盈利增长(%) 19 . 3 33.3 1 5.8 4 0.3 12.3 税前利润(%) 8.7 9.0 8 .8 1 0.3 10.7 净利率(%) 6.6 7.0 6 .7 8 .1 8.4 盈利对利息倍数(倍) 9.1 17.1 1 3.7 1 8.8 20.4 有效税率(%) 19 . 3 21.4 2 2.0 2 0.0 20.0 股息派发净额(%) 10 . 0 14.4 1 6.9 1 3.4 14.8 应收账款周转(日) 65.7 60.2 5 8.3 5 1.1 51.2 存货周转(日) 56.3 58.1 6 2.0 5 4.4 54.5 应付账款周转(日) 38.3 40.3 4 0.7 3 4.1 32.6 Source: Company, CIMB-GK estimates [ 3 ] CIMB-GK RESEARCH PTE LTD – DISCLOSURE & DISCLAIMER By accepting this report, the recipient hereof represents and warrants that he is entitled to receive such report in accordance with the restrictions set forth below and agrees to be bound by the limitations contained herein (including the “Restrictions on Distributions” set out below). 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