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Flooring It Stamford Tyres Corp Thursday 26 February 2004 Initiation of coverage Stamford Tyres Corp Buy Flooring it The prospects for Stamford Tyres are bright, in our view, as it is positioned in the world's fastest-growing auto region. We expect This research report has been prepared for general circulation. It is circulated for information only. The earnings to accelerate going forward through deeper market opinions expressed herein do not have regard to the specific investment objectives, or financial situation of any specific person who may read this report. penetration and greater operational efficiencies. Buy. Permit No. MITA (P) 280/05/2003 Automobiles & Parts Key forecasts Singapore FY02A FY03A FY04F FY05F FY06F Revenue (S$m) 120.1 163.0 186.2 219.4 259.0 Price EBITDA (S$m) 11.8 15.4 19.7 25.8 32.8 S$0.69 Reported Net Profit (S$m) 2.76 8.18 11.4 15.1 19.3 Target price Normalised Net Profit (S$m) 2.76 8.18 11.4 15.1 19.3 S$1.05 Normalised EPS (S$) 0.02 0.05 0.06 0.08 0.10 Dividend Per Share (S$) 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 Market capitalisation Dividend Yield (%) 1.12 1.12 1.80 2.20 2.82 S$137.24m (US$80.97m) Normalised PE (x) 37.8 13.0 11.1 9.08 7.10 Avg (12mth) daily volume EV/EBITDA (x) 14.9 10.7 8.05 6.10 4.68 S$1.48m (US$0.86m) Price/Book Value (x) 2.44 2.16 2.19 1.84 1.52 Reuters ROIC (%) 5.63 12.9 17.7 20.4 22.4 STAS.SI Source: Company data, ABN AMRO estimates year to Apr, fully diluted Bloomberg STC SP Solid prospects in Asian tyre industry Price performance (1M) (3M) (12M) Asia's tyre industry has significantly outpaced the growth rates in developed Price (S$) 0.7 0.5 0.2 countries. With healthy economic conditions in the region, a rapidly growing car Absolute % 2.2 39.0 345.5 population and low vehicle penetration rates, we expect the long-term outlook for Rel market % 2.8 23.4 209.9 auto-parts suppliers to remain strong. Rel sector % 1.7 21.1 223.2 Source: ABN AMRO China and Thailand raise prospects Stamford Tyres is set to benefit over the long term from increased demand for auto 52-week range: 0.74-0.15 Straits Times Index: 1878.41 parts due to its positioning in two of the fastest growing tyre markets in Asia. It has BBG AP Autos: 149.47 a JV to distribute Dunlop tyres manufactured in China and will also manufacture sports alloy rims in Thailand. Three-year net income CAGR of 33% Against a backdrop of healthy regional GDP growth and higher consumption rates, we expect Stamford Tyres' new Thai wheel manufacturing operations, growing Asian distribution network and greater operational efficiencies to boost group net income by a three-year CAGR of 33%, while EBIT margins are set to rise from 7.7% in FY03 to 11.2% in FY06F. Accelerating returns and attractive valuations At 0.4x PEG and 9x FY05F PER, Stamford Tyres appears attractive at current levels. With its promising China and Thai exposures and accelerating returns, we believe its long-term prospects are strong and positive. Our 12-month target price of S$1.05 (51% potential upside) is derived from a three-stage DCF valuation. We initiate coverage with a Buy recommendation. Analyst Kevin Chong ABN AMRO Asia Securities (Singapore) Private Ltd Singapore +65 6230 3323 [email protected] Disclosures and analyst certifications are at the end of the body of this research. www.abnamroresearch.com Priced at close of business 24 February 2004. Use of %& indicates that the line item has changed by at least 10%. 63 Chulia Street, Level 10, Singapore 049514, Singapore The Basics Key assumptions The Asian tyre market has been growing at a rate of 9-13% over the past several Distribution of broker years and we expect this trend to continue on the back of healthy economic growth in recommendations the region, the rapidly growing vehicle population and increasing consumer spending. 4 3 Our assumption of 14-18% yoy revenue growth for Stamford Tyres is slightly above 2 the industry rate as it takes into account Stamford’s niche product segment of high- 1 end tyres and sports alloy wheel manufacturing. We expect margins to continue 0 Sell Buy expanding with EBIT rising from 7.7% in FY03 to 11.2% in FY06F on the back of Add Hold greater operational efficiencies and leverage, resulting in a three-year group net Reduce income CAGR of 33%. Source: Multex Versus consensus How we differ from consensus EPS ABN Con- % Our FY04 forecast EPS of S$0.062 is 8.8% below the consensus estimate of S$0.068. (S$) AMRO sensus Diff Note that the current market coverage of Stamford Tyres is limited. FY04F 0.062 0.068 -8.8 FY05F 0.077 0.086 -8.3 FY06F 0.098 0.107 -8.4 Valuation and target price Source: Bloomberg, ABN AMRO estimates Our 12-month target price of S$1.05, which implies 51% potential upside, is derived from a three-stage DCF valuation and assumes operating margins will decline from 9-11% over 2004-10 to 8.0-8.5% during the value expansion period of 2011-20. Valuation snapshot Financial returns are then expected to fade over five years (2021-25) until they equal the company’s WACC (9%), as supernormal returns are competed away over the long Current price S$0.69 Fair value* S$1.05 term. Target price S$1.05 Upside/downside 51% Catalysts for share price performance *Methodology 3-stage DCF Source: ABN AMRO estimates We expect the following factors to move the share price towards our target over the next 12 months: ■ Better-than-expected performance from the company’s Thai wheel manufacturing Key events operations. Date Event ■ Better-than-expected progress with the SRI-TP joint venture to distribute Dunlop 9-Jul-04 FY04 results tyres in China. Source: Company ■ The possibility of securing new product lines and brands for distribution. Risks to central scenario ■ The inability to secure adequate tyre allocation from manufacturers (note that tyres are allocated by manufacturers to distributors). ■ Unexpected disruption to tyre supply in the industry due to an unforeseen event (eg, fire at a tyre manufacturer). STAMFORD TYRES CORP 26 FEBRUARY 2004 2 KEY ASSUMPTIONS AND SENSITIVITIES Key assumptions and sensitivities Table 1 : Revenue breakdown YE - April 2002 2003 2004F 2005F 2006F Revenues - by activity (S$ m) Wholesale & distribution 90.5 131.5 150.8 172.2 198.1 Retail & fleet 29.3 31.3 34.6 38.6 40.1 Services 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 Other revenues 0.0 0.0 0.4 8.1 20.3 120.1 163.0 186.2 219.4 259.0 Revenues - % of total Wholesale & distribution 75.4% 80.7% 81.0% 78.5% 76.5% Retail & fleet 24.4% 19.2% 18.6% 17.6% 15.5% Services 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Other revenues 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3.7% 7.8% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Revenues - by region (S$ m) Singapore 72.4 85.4 94.7 103.3 110.5 Malaysia 19.6 24.6 28.4 33.2 38.5 HK/China 10.2 33.9 40.9 48.7 58.5 Thailand 6.7 8.8 10.8 20.0 33.4 Indonesia 6.3 5.3 5.6 6.5 7.6 Latin America 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.6 4.4 Others 2.9 2.6 2.7 4.1 6.2 120.1 163.0 186.2 219.4 259.0 Thai wheel plant # of production lines 12 # of alloy wheels (m) - capacity 0.20 0.48 utilisation rate 48% 50% Revenues (S$ m) - wheel production 8.1 20.3 Revenues (S$ m) - distribution 11.9 13.1 Source: Company data, ABN AMRO estimates Table 2 : Target price sensitivity table No of Years in Fade Period WACC 15 18 20 23 25 6.0% 1.60 1.66 1.72 1.79 1.85 7.0% 1.29 1.33 1.37 1.41 1.46 8.0% 1.06 1.09 1.12 1.14 1.17 9.0% 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.96 10.0% 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.80 Source: ABN AMRO estimates STAMFORD TYRES CORP 26 FEBRUARY 2004 3 Contents INDUSTRY DYNAMICS Solid prospects in Asian tyre industry 5 Asia’s tyre industry has significantly outpaced the growth rates in developed countries. With a rapidly growing car population and low vehicle penetration rates, we expect the long-term outlook to remain strong. Stamford Tyres’ Asian prospects look strong 8 INVESTMENT VIEW China and Thailand raise prospects 10 Positioned in two of the fastest-growing tyre markets in Asia with its JV to distribute Dunlop tyres and its sports alloy rims manufacturing business, Stamford Tyres is set to benefit from increased demand for auto... China 10 Thailand 12 Net income CAGR of 33% 13 Healthy regional GDP growth rates, higher consumption spending and deeper market penetration are expected to boost net income by a three-year CAGR of 33% and EBIT margins from 7.7% in FY03 to 11.2% in FY06F. VALUATION COMMENT Accelerating returns and attractive valuations 14 At 0.4x PEG and 9x PER, and with accelerating returns, Stamford Tyres looks attractive at current levels.
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