Supplementary Information on the Financials, and Sugar and Starch Operations Land Development Activities Are Covered in the Separate Land Portfolio Document Index
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Supplementary information on the Financials, and Sugar and Starch operations Land development activities are covered in the separate Land Portfolio document Index Page • Starch and glucose 3 - 10 • Sugar operations 11 - 27 • Financial information 28 - 40 • Contact details 41 2 Starch and Glucose Page • Background on starch and glucose 4 • Evolving product and customer utilisation and 5 market mix • Maize dynamics 6 • South African maize history 7 • Starch and glucose markets 8 • Relevant statistics • Volume data 9 • Financial data 9 • Co-product pricing 10 3 Background on Starch and Glucose • Largest maize wet-miller in Africa • Use > 630 000 tons maize per annum • Significant market sectors manufacturing complementary and substitute products from either maize or sugarcane • Various market segments • Fermentation (alcoholic beverages) • Spray drying (coffee and coffee creamers) • Binder, adhesives (corrugating and paper lamination) • Thickener (food applications) • Sweeteners (canning and confectionary) • Sizing agent (paper industry and textiles) 4 Evolving Product and Customer Utilisation and Market Mix • Available upstream capacity (wet mill) - 15% • Investment of R135 million in 2015/16 for downstream capacity for coffee creamers commissioned and operational • Replacement of imported volumes under long term contracts • Customers and Tongaat Hulett imported 12 152 tons of glucose in 2015/16 • Releasing capacity for other growth sectors • Meyerton production curtailed (4 323 tons) in 2015/16 by commissioning of capital projects for boiler replacement and investments to increase starch production • Investments will facilitate growth in value added modified starch production in local and export prepared food markets in 2016/17 5 Maize Dynamics Physical Supply • South African maize production in for 2016/17 season estimated at 7,05 million tons (2015/16: 9,96 million tons) due to drought • Biggest impact on maize in west and north-west parts of South Africa - key white maize production areas • Tongaat Hulett sources maize in Mpumalanga where impact of drought conditions is reduced • Tongaat Hulett is largely a yellow maize user Pricing • The relativity of the South African maize price versus the international price impacts on the margin of Tongaat Hulett Starch’s non-formulae driven sales • Currently this constitutes 55% of the sales mix • 34% of this is currently unpriced, and margins will further be impacted on by exchange rates and international starch and glucose margins 6 South African Maize History 2015/16 4th 1979/80 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 Production Estimate* Hectares planted (000 ha) 4 031 2 372 2 699 2 781 2 688 2 653 1 947 Yield (t/ha) 3,37 4,37 4,38 4,21 5,32 3,75 3,62 Production (000 tons) 13 583 10 360 11 830 11 811 14 307 9 955 7 054 Imports (000 tons) - - - - - 1 651 3 650 Carry in stock (000 tons) 2 115 2 336 994 1 417 589 2 074 2 060 Total usage incl. exports (000 tons) 8 324 11 702 11 418 12 639 12 822 11 620 11 518 Stock to use ratio 10,02% 8,49% 12,41% 4,66% 16,18% 17,73% 10,82% Outlook for World maize/corn Lower international starch and glucose prices • 2015/16 - Corn production in the US is 345,5 million tons - yields are • Lower international corn prices have translated into marginally lower at 10,57 tons per hectare compared to 10,73 tons per lower starch and glucose prices hectare in 2014/15 • Currency devaluation in commodity based countries has • US corn plantings for 2016/17 are expected to be 6,37% higher than in the shielded the impact of lower prices current year • Currently world corn supplies are adequate and there are no supply • Chinese market less competitive due to high domestic concerns given the favourable crops that were harvested internationally corn prices * The estimated production has been calculated using the CEC April 2016 planting intention and expected average yield 7 Starch and Glucose Markets 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 % Growth 2014/15 % Growth 2015/16 Tons Actual Actual Actual vs. 2013/14 vs. 2014/15 Alcoholic beverages 173 352 176 489 178 441 1,8% 1,1% Coffee creamers 70 734 75 201 74 484 6,3% -1,0% Confectionery 61 599 67 148 63 643 9,0% -5,2% Paper 56 486 59 870 58 732 6,0% -1,9% Prepared foods 12 323 13 696 11 241 11,1% -17,9% Other 45 712 45 828 45 206 0,3% -1,4% Total local 420 206 438 232 431 747 4,3% -1,5% 8 Volumes and Financial Data Volume (tons) March 2016 March 2015 Local starch 91 085 92 557 Local glucose 340 662 345 675 Total local 431 747 438 232 Export starch 28 593 34 422 Export glucose 33 077 25 976 Total exports 61 670 60 398 Co-products 174 081 172 099 Total 667 498 670 729 R millions March 2016 March 2015 Revenue 3 640 3 447 Domestic 2 459 2 398 Exports 462 423 Co-products 719 626 Operating Profit 658 561 9 Co-product Pricing Price movement Co-product Major price drivers 2016 over 2015 Germ Up 13,7% International edible oil prices Lower-priced international Gluten-60 Down 7,9% competitive products Gluten-20 Up 32,2% Local SAFEX maize price 10 Sugar Operations Page • Multiple strong sugar market positions with protected, growing domestic markets • 1st Global sugar supply deficit after 5 years 12 • Protected, growing domestic markets 13 • Key regional and EU market positions 14 - 15 • Growing sugar production from the current low 16 - 25 point • Reducing the cost of sugar production 26 • Ethanol and Electricity 27 11 1st Global Sugar Supply Deficit after 5 Years • Consensus of commentators’ views points to a Global production and consumption deficit in the year to September 2016 of 5 - 10 million 190 Production Consumption tons, the first time in 5 years that global supply will 185 be less than global demand 180 • Dry weather conditions in India and Thailand (annual sugar production of 30 million and 12 million tons, 175 respectively accounting for some 23% of global 170 Million Tons Million production) currently looms large in supply forecasts 165 as a bullish element to pricing 160 • Consumption growth of 1,5% to 2,0% per annum 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 continues indicating that global consumption is Source: LMC International growing by some 2,5 - 3,5 million tons per annum Global stocks are reducing, but remain above • World Market Raw Sugar Price normal levels, as a consequence of the current year’s forecast supply deficit 18 • Prices have been increasing of late in response to 16 the short-term supply outlook. Ongoing support measures and exchange rate movements, amongst 14 others, will continue to impact on price sentiment and production decisions / lb US¢ 12 • Firmer oil prices support sugar prices via ethanol 10 values 12 Protected, Growing Domestic Markets • Domestic demand continues to be the key driver of Tongaat Hulett’s approach to markets where the progression towards Total Domestic remunerative prices supportive of sustainable cane growing are Country Price Increases Market vs Industry not impacted by the dumped world sugar price Production • Tongaat Hulett’s domestic markets of Mozambique, SA Customs Union and Zimbabwe comprise • Some 110 million people, growing at between 1% and 3,5% per annum, with an average of some 2% per annum (Source: • 5% (US$) increase World Bank) Zimbabwe 78% on 1 March 2016 • Annual sugar consumption of 2,6 million tons, growing annually at between 2% and 6%, with an average of some 2,3% (equivalent of a new sugar mill every 3 years) • A mix of low (Mozambique) to medium annual per capita sugar • 29% (Metical) consumption (Zimbabwe and SACU) Mozambique increase on 45% • Latent demand growth linked to current weak national 1 February 2016 economic performance • Internal prices are driven by • Government support for prices that sustain local cane growing rather than importing of sugar • 12,5% (Rand) • Duty mechanisms that are denominated in US$, aimed at increase on 90% - 100% establishing an appropriately remunerative internal market South Africa 1 February 2016 depending on crop price level size • Border controls to ensure compliance with import • 15% (Rand) increase requirements supported as appropriate by sugar industry planned for July 2016 resources 13 Deficit Regional Markets of Southern and Eastern Africa • Import demand amounts to some 1,6 million tons of sugar per annum, which has been supplied by both the regions’ producers and also by India, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, Dubai and Brazil • Prices trade at a premium to world market prices for sugar and move in tandem with changes in those prices • Tongaat Hulett has in the past supplied 100 000 tons of high grade white sugar per annum into the region, predominantly to industrial users • The Tongaat Hulett name is well established • Per capita annual sugar consumption is markedly lower (7 kg - 12 kg) than in the SA Customs Union • Demand growth can be expected to be at least at the same level as forecast population growth, in the region of 2% - 3% per annum. Demand growth will be influenced by economic growth rates • Tongaat Hulett’s Mafambisse and Xinavane sugar mills and the Huletts refinery in Durban are close to ports, providing efficient access to regional markets • Zimbabwe is well located for supplying regional deficit markets, benefitting from being a member of the COMESA trade bloc • Most deficit markets of Southern and Eastern Africa aspire to establish their own sugar industries. Tongaat Hulett is cautiously positioning itself as a possible long-term partner 14 EU Market • Going forward, prices in the EU are forecast to become more directly linked to the world market price for sugar, trading at a differential to that