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Joint Meeting Date: Wednesday, February 12, 2020 2:30:50 PM Attachments: SANDAG Agenda Comment Feb 14, 2020 Phil Birkhahn.Pdf SANDAG - February 14, 2020 Board of Directors, Transportation Committee, and Regional Planning Committee General Comments Jack Shu, President 1 Why is there a Crisis? 2 1 Source: NASA 3 Source: Chttps://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/24/graphic-the-relentless-rise-of- carbon-dioxide/ 4 2 415 ppm Source: Chttps://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/24/graphic-the-relentless-rise-of- carbon-dioxide/ 5 After 40 more years of the current emissions rate 600 ppm 415 ppm Source: Chttps://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/24/graphic-the-relentless-rise-of- carbon-dioxide/ 6 3 Source: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/global-warming/temperature-change 7 97% of climate scientists have concluded that human-caused climate change is happening. 8 4 If the thin atmosphere we live in was a coal mine, the Canary Has Died • There are almost 3 billion fewer North American birds in 2019 than there were in 1970, accounting for a 29 percent decline • Fires in Australia, exacerbated by the climate crisis has killed an estimated one billion animals and torched over 15.6 Million acres • Coral reefs are dying around the world 9 San Diego Bay Flood Risk Source: Climate Central 10 5 San Diego Bay Flood Risk Source: Climate Central 11 San Diego Bay Flood Risk Source: Climate Central 12 6 San Diego Bay Flood Risk Source: Climate Central 13 San Diego Bay Flood Risk Source: Climate Central 14 7 San Diego Bay Flood Risk Source: Climate Central 15 San Diego Bay Flood Risk Source: Climate Central 16 8 San Diego Bay Flood Risk Source: Climate Central 17 San Diego Bay Flood Risk Source: Climate Central 18 9 The largest source of GHGs is from Transportation, cars and trucks • We need to drastically reduce the emissions from the transportation sector starting now. •Even with the most optimistic conversion to electric vehicles, we have to reduce VMT 15 to 20% of current levels in the next 10 years. • There are many ways to do this, from addressing parking, increasing telecommuting, lane conversions, building an effective transit network to pricing road use. 19 If we do it right • Our commute times will not go up. •The combined cost of transportation for users and government will go down. • We will have a vibrant economy. • Our communities will be safer and healthier. 20 10 From: Phil Birkhahn To: Clerk of the Board Subject: Agenda Comment, Item +4, for February 14, 2020 Joint Meeting Date: Wednesday, February 12, 2020 2:30:50 PM Attachments: SANDAG Agenda Comment Feb 14, 2020 Phil Birkhahn.pdf Clerk of the Board, Please include my comment and report in the official record of the February 14, 2020 Joint Meeting of SANDAG’s Board of Directors, Transportation Committee, and Regional Planning Committee. Please let me know if I should provide separate pdf files for the Comment and Report, or if you have any other requirements. Thanks for any help and guidance you can provide. Submitted February 12, 2020 to Clerk of the Board, [email protected] For the official public record. AGENDA COMMENT, Item +4 for February 14, 2020 Joint Meeting of SANDAG Board of Directors, Transportation Committee, and Regional Planning Committee Submitter: Phil Birkhahn, Member of the Public, Rancho Bernardo Phil Birkhahn 858 472 5029 Submitted February 12, 2020 to Clerk of the Board, [email protected] For the official public record. AGENDA COMMENT, Item +4 for February 14, 2020 Joint Meeting of SANDAG Board of Directors, Transportation Committee, and Regional Planning Committee Submitter: Phil Birkhahn, Member of the Public, Rancho Bernardo MY RAIL VISION for SAN DIEGO FAST COMMUTER RAIL for VMT REDUCTION ONE PART OF THE TRANSPORTATION VISION DESIGNED TO LEVERAGE EXISITING TROLLEY, BRT, and BUS & BE LEVERAGED BY NEW TROLLEY, BRT & BUS We have an exciting year ahead as SANDAG comes to conclusions about our transportation future and makes recommendations to the San Diego community. I have confidence in their work. However, as a civil engineer, which includes transportation engineering, I could not resist developing my own vision. The first part is commuter and light rail in the report that follows. I propose Fast Commuter Rail as a new class of public transit for rush-hour trip speeds of 58 to 80 mph. Fast trainsets already run elsewhere but run slower even with grade separations. They have too many sharp curves in the wrong place and too many stations. Consequently, existing commuter rail provides rush hour trip speeds of just 31 to 48 miles per hour, like our own Coaster at 40 mph. Higher trip speed means lower travel times, the deciding factor for most commuters. What we have now is not fast enough to beat the rush-hour freeway. Transit riders spend an extra 45 minutes per day commuting. That motivates preference for cars and low transit ridership. Fast Commuter Rail can turn the tables, saving transit riders 45 minutes compared to driving. It would run from Chula Vista Center to Sorrento Valley in 24 minutes, with seven stations. It is inspired by the Purple Line. Transit riders save 45 minutes and more in New York and San Francisco, where 56% and 35% of commuters respectively use transit. Superior service by Fast Commuter Rail can increase San Diego ridership and weave other transit modes into a high- performance transit network. My report examines the likely Phase One, called the Job Train because it links the South County Residence Zone to the Mid-County Employer Zone. I believe the Job Train Phase 1 is the most important transportation project in San Diego County, providing the most benefit to the most people. My report shows why it is so important, prospective route and construction, the in- service timetable, benefits, costs, and comparison to massive freeway construction to serve mobility demand. My question for the panel is: Can your new travel demand model consider differential travel time in estimating mode share in corridors? And accurately calculate long-term ridership, VMT and GHG reductions for each mode? For updates, please contact me. [email protected] MY RAIL VISION for SAN DIEGO JOB TRAIN PHASE 1 FAST COMMUTER RAIL Original Work by Phil Birkhahn, [email protected] Registered Civil Engineer, California January 2020 ii Images here and previous page from Siemens Brochure, Desiro City – Evolution in Motion Siemens AG 2016 Mobility Division Otto-Hahn-Ring 6 81739 Munich, Germany CONTENTS Section page MY RAIL VISION FOR SAN DIEGO 1 with Schematic Map BIG COMMUTER TROUBLE 2 South County to Kearny Mesa & UTC/UCSD/Sorrento/Miramar with Google Traffic Map TRAVEL DEMAND INTERPRETED from CALTRANS TRAFFIC VOLUME DATA 4 with Table JOB TRAIN TO COMPETE WITH FREEWAY 6 with Graphs PHASE 1: FIRST CUT ROUTE 8 with Google Earth Image STATION-to-STATION TRAVEL-TIME MODEL 10 with Table BENEFITS 13 Mobility for a Connected San Diego Region Commuter Market, Rider Capacity, & Ridership VMT & GHG Reduction Mode Share of Existing Long-Route Transit COSTS 16 Construction, Operation TROLLEY AND FREEWAY ALTERNATIVES 17 Equivalent Freeway Upgrades Likely Cost More with Table APPENDIX 19 ROUTE SEGMENTS BETWEEN STATIONS with Google Earth Close Ups Chula Vista Blue Line to 47th St Orange Line 20 47th St. Orange Line to City Heights 22 City Heights to Stadium Green Line 24 Stadium Green Line to Kearny Mesa 26 Kearny Mesa to UTC Blue Line 28 UTC Blue Line to Sorrento Valley 30 iv HIGHER SPEED RAIL (HrSR) HIGHER SPEED RAIL (HrSR) Anaheim, Los Angeles Temecula, SR 76 @ Pala Mesa SR 74 @ Lake Elsinore, Corona, Ontario Airport 82 miles [Grab your reader’s attention with a great quote from the document or use this space to emphasize a key point. To place this text box anywhere on the page, just drag it.] MY RAIL VISION for the SAN DIEGO REGION EXISTING LIGHT RAIL JOB TRAIN 18 mph trips, 55 mph max 64.5 miles, 64 stations Phase 1 NEW RAIL LINES LIGHT RAIL 35 mph trips, 55 max Likely: 90 miles, 25 stations GoodSpeculative FAST COMMUTER RAIL 65 mph trips, 100 mph max 140 miles, 29 stations Original Work by P. Birkhahn, October 8, 2019 1 MY RAIL VISION for SAN DIEGO JOB TRAIN – Phase 1 ONE PART OF THE TRANSPORTATION VISION DESIGNED TO LEVERAGE EXISITING TROLLEY, BRT, and BUS & BE LEVERAGED BY NEW TROLLEY, BRT & BUS My Transportation Vision for San Diego starts with the heavy rail part of My Rail Vision. Heavy rail is the only rival to freeways in capacity to move very large numbers of people. I believe the right type of heavy rail is Fast Commuter Rail. The focus of this pamphlet is the likely Phase 1. Review, comment, and improvement on any content in this report is welcome. The approximate methods used herein are introductory to start conversations. I look forward to definitive proposals by SANDAG for our next Regional Transportation Plan. What would our ride be like on Fast Commuter Rail? Siemens’ Desiro® City (Germany) (shown in front pages) has all the amenities, restroom options, and wide connections between cars. Riders could walk inside the train end to end. Similar layouts are available in commuter rail by Bombardier (Germany), and Kawasaki Rail Car (Japan). They all excel on route lengths of 20 to 50 miles and station intervals of 3 to 10 miles, providing trip speeds of 60 to 80 miles per hour. Phase 1 from Chula Vista to UTC and Sorrento Valley would be somewhat like BART in San Francisco but faster. BART rail cars can cruise at 80 mph, but average trip speeds are 35 mph. Our Phase 1 would most likely cruise at 100 mph and provide average trip speed of 59 mph. Trip speed would be 66 mph on North County extensions.
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