News Highlights – Wednesday September 30, 2020 – 1300EAT

COVID-19 Pandemic Region Infections Deaths Recoveries Globe 33.876 million 1013 million 25.172 million Africa 1.48 million 35,729 1,226 million 74,584 1,191 30,952 Follow live updates on worldometers.info/coronavirus/

• Africa needs $100billion for COVID-19 aftermath: Ramaphosa - CGTN Africa needs financing of $100 billion for “fiscal space and liquidity’’ amid the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Tuesday at a UN meeting on financing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in the era of COVID-19 and beyond via video message. The impact of the pandemic has been described as the worst shock to the global economy since World War II. “The economic and social consequences are as bad as we feared and in some cases, worse. We are suffering the largest economic contraction since the Second World War, Ramaphosa said. “Unless we take action now, we face a global recession that could wipe out decades of development and put the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development completely out of reach,” he added. According to Ramaphosa, challenges facing developing economies have been compounded by weak public health systems, limited social safety nets, high levels of inequality, high debt burdens, reduced tax revenues, capital outflows and lack of adequate and sufficient access to financial markets. “For Africa, financing remains crucial. As agreed by African finance ministers on 19 March 2020, Africa needs immediate emergency financing to the tune of 100 billion, which would provide fiscal space and liquidity to governments,” Ramaphosa said. He added that the southern nation supported extending the debt service suspension and considering the cancellation of debt in certain cases. He called on developed countries not to go back on their commitments to support developing countries. ______GERD • GERD Mitigates Evaporation – Premier – All Africa Prime Minister accentuated the benefit of the self-financed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) to water resources conservation which otherwise would be lost to evaporation in downstream countries. The Premier also pledged unwavering support to lasting peace in the Horn region in partnership with the international community. These came when the Prime Minister addressed the general debate of the 75th Session of the General Assembly of UN

CDRC Research Department, September 2020 on 25 Sep. 2020 on a pre-recorded message. Explaining the intention behind building the GERD, the premier went on saying that Ethiopia has no intention to harm Sudan and Egypt while he put forth the fact that what the people of Ethiopia have been doing is meant to meet the electricity demands from one of the cleanest sources of energy. "We cannot afford to continue keeping more than 65 million of our people in the dark." A showcase to Ethiopia's genuine stance is that the entire process of the construction has been guided by the internationally accepted principles of "equitable utilization" and "not causing significant harm" in building the dam, he indicated. "Our unwavering commitment to this is clearly captured in the Declaration of Principles signed by Ethiopia, Egypt and the Sudan in March 2015." He has also assured that the government and people of Ethiopia are firm in their commitment to addressing the concerns of downstream countries and reaching a mutual beneficiary outcome in the context of the ongoing African Union-led process. Regarding Horn peace, the premier said: "Our peace and development are closely interlinked with the peace and security of countries in our sub-region. We are encouraged by the formation of the Revitalized Transitional Government of National Unity in South Sudan. We hope the South Sudanese political stakeholders will continue to work together in the spirit of cooperation to address outstanding issues and improve the plight of the South Sudanese people who have suffered for far too long." He also indicated that the Sudanese Transitional Government needs all the support it can get from the international community in easing the serious socio-economic difficulties facing the country and fulfilling the hopes and aspirations of the Sudanese people. When it comes to Somalia, Abiy expressed grave concern over the continued attacks perpetrated by Al-shabab. "We all need to continue supporting Somalia in the security endeavor." Abiy also appreciated the international COVID-19 response in support of Africa which provided some relief. "We believe that much more is still needed to be done to soften the medium and long-term impacts of the pandemic on our continent."

• Ethiopian Ambassadors Vow to Continue Diplomatic Course on GERD-ENA Explaining the reasonable stand of Ethiopia on the GERD to the world and consolidating the participation of the diaspora until the completion of the dam will continue in an organized manner, Ethiopian ambassadors said. Minnesota and Midwest Consul General, Abdulaziz Mohammed told ENA that comprehensive work has been underway to inform the international community that the dam is being built in compliance with international law. He added that the consul had been explaining that the dam is being built based on the principle of equitable utilization and mutual benefit without causing significant harm to downstream countries. According to him, understanding has been reached that Ethiopia, the country that contributes 86 percent of Nile waters, is building the dam with the view to uplifting its citizens from poverty. Ambassador Abdulaziz noted that the diaspora has shown big interest in supporting the dam both in finance and knowledge, following the first phase filling of GERD. He stressed that all-round efforts would be exerted to encourage the diaspora to consolidate its support and explain the multifaceted uses of

CDRC Research Department, September 2020 the dam. Ethiopian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Abdulaziz Ahmed stated on his part that his embassy has been making Ethiopia’s position clear to Arab countries. Foreign Affairs State Minister, Redwan Hussein said reflecting Ethiopia’s position on GERD is one of the priorities of the embassies and counsels. Nowadays many countries have come to understand Ethiopia’s stand, the state minister said, adding that “this does not mean, however, that they are standing by our side.” Redwan underlined that the ambassadors are working to make the world understand that more than 60 million Ethiopians have no access to electricity. ______Ethiopia • Ethiopia, South Africa Working to Ink Labor Pact – All Africa The government of Ethiopia has been closely working with its South African counterpart to reach a final agreement to curb illegal migration and resort to skilled labor exchanges that will ensure the rights, benefits and dignity of citizens, according to Ethiopia's ambassador to that country. Approached by The Ethiopian Herald, Ethiopia's Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to South Africa, Shiferaw Teklemariam stated that the Ethiopian government is giving due emphasis on well- researched legal frameworks, structural organization and working systems to send skilled employees to South Africa. Ambassador Shiferaw noted that mutual understanding between Ethiopia and South Africa is growing time to time since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's official visit to the latter last January. Continuous dialogues are underway, even in the current coronavirus-affected situation, in virtual platforms to reach the final deal in the shortest possible time. Citing false information disseminated by some parties about dramatic change of livelihoods in South Africa, the ambassador advised citizens to take legal routes and ways to travel as most of the vulnerable groups are illegal migrants. During his visit, Premier Abiy also conferred with South Africa President Cyril Ramaphosa on South Africa's involvement in the Tripartite Talks of Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan on the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). "Emanating from his strong belief to give African solutions to African problems, the PM invited President Ramaphosa, the current Chairperson of the African Union, to contribute share in the ongoing dialogue." According to the ambassador, President Ramaphosa's consensus to take part in the GERD Talks under the auspicious of the AU is one of Ethiopia's landmark diplomatic achievements. The revised Ethiopia's Foreign Policy has given due emphasis to forge relations with African countries and enhance partnership to the fulfillment of Pan-African peace, democracy and development goals. "Taking in to account South Africa's status of being Africa's economic powerhouse, the Premier visit was also aimed at promoting Ethiopia's economic interests," he said, adding that South African companies were briefed about Ethiopia's untapped potentials for investment, trade and tourism. Ambassador Shiferaw expressed his belief that Abiy's visit was instrumental to aware South African companies that Ethiopia is the right place to do business.

CDRC Research Department, September 2020

Accordingly, there is a growing desire among South African investors to discover Ethiopia's business climate and to maximize their involvement in the country's market. For its part, Ethiopia's Embassy in Pretoria puts in place meticulous efforts to lobbying for facilitating the expansion of market horizons of the nation's export in South Africa. Soliciting development assistance consisting of financial and technical support through bilateral cooperation is also among the priorities of the diplomatic mission, the ambassador remarked. South Africa is amongst homes to large Ethiopian Diaspora and there are reportedly 200,000 Ethiopians live and work in that country.

• Air Force, Geospatial Information Institute Agree to Start Aerial Surveying Service- Fana Ethiopian Air force has reached an agreement with Geospatial Information Institute to start Aerial Surveying service. The aerial surveying and mapping services to be started jointly by the two institutes is said vital to provide all rounded growth and development of the country with basic information supply. Director General of the Ethiopian Geospatial Information Institute, Dr. Tulu Besha said informational supply and access is needed in every development sector in the country. The existing aerial photography activities will be reinforced and transformed in to the better position, the Director General added. Chief of the Ethiopian Air Force, Maj. General Yilma Merdasa, to his part said, significant number of planes are appropriated for the aerial survey, mapping and photography works to in order to back the development of the country with up to date information.

• Federal Police Carries out Comprehensive Reforms: Commissioner General - ENA The Federal Police Commission said that it has embarked on a comprehensive reform aimed at having a modernized and well-trained security forces in the country. This was disclosed at half- day meeting held today in the presence of Deputy Prime Minister, Demeke Mekonnen and other government officials including members of security forces. In his opening speech, Federal Police Commissioner General, Endashaw Tassew noted that the far-reaching reform being underway in the country since the past two years has been facing challenges due to the illegal activities by some anti-peace elements and groups in different parts of the country. “This situation has caused additional burden on our security forces and its undertakings,” Endashaw said adding that currently, the demand for enhanced security forces and police services in the country have become critical. The commission has realized the fact that the current challenges being encountered particularly because of the recurrent violence would not be effectively and sustainably handled with the existing structural establishment, according to the Commissioner General. Hence, the Federal Police has embarked activities that aimed at building professional, modern and well- trained security force that efficiently prevent the ongoing challenges through a fundamental structural change, he underlined. “Since the beginning of the reform, concrete results have been

CDRC Research Department, September 2020 gained specially to averting several conspiracies and violence activities attempted by some anti- peace elements”, he indicated. The structural reforms include human development, capacity building, enhanced logistic supply, and equip the security forces with modern technologies among others.

• Getahun Kassa, Election Board Member, tendered resignation letter - Borkena The National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) announced on Monday that Dr. Getahun Kassa tendered a resignation letter to the House of People’s Representative. The Board, however, did not say as to why one of the five board members of the National Electoral Board is quitting. The remaining board members are retaining their positions. The Board, whose chairperson is Birtukan Mideksssa, was approved by the Ethiopian Parliament in June 2019. At this writing, the parliament did not announce if the resignation letter is accepted or not. Ethiopian Satellite Television said on Monday that Getahun kassa has served in the past as head of Tigray region’s Justice department, and that his resignation is believed to linked with pressure from Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Last week, the parliament decided to hold the sixth general election during this Ethiopian year after the Ministry of Health said that the election could take place under specific circumstances due to the Coronavirus disease in the country. It is to be recalled that the House of Federation postponed the general election up to nine months to one year after a relevant authority declared that the Coronavirus is no longer a public health threat. The House of People’s Representative and the House of Federation are scheduled to have a joint meeting sometime next week.

• Veteran Politician, Author Prof. Mesfin Woldemariam Dies At 90 - Fana The veteran politician Professor Mesfin Woldemariam has died at age of 90 today. The long- serving politician of the country, Professor Mesfin Woldemariam was peacefully struggling for political and human rights of citizens with intense devotion starting from the monarchial regime. Mesfin Woldemariam was a professor of Geography at University and contributed a lot in the academic sphere of his field of study. He was also an author who wrote a number of books focused at social, political, economic and historical phenomenon in the country besides the academic area. As renowned politician, academician and author, Professoer Mesfin served as chairperson of the Ethiopian Human Rights Council. The professor who was also an advocate of human rights was passionately fighting for welfare of Ethiopians in his strong writings and public speeches and political debates. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has expressed his grief up on the death of the late Professor and extended condolences to families and all Ethiopians at large. ______

CDRC Research Department, September 2020

Horn of Africa and IGAD Region South Sudan

• Efforts to unify soldiers in South Sudan ‘stuck’: UN envoy- Aljazeera The United Nations special envoy to South Sudan on Tuesday said almost no progress has been made in unifying the country’s warring forces under one army, as promised under a hard-fought peace deal. The pledge to bring government and rebel soldiers under a national banner was a cornerstone of a September 2018 peace agreement that paused five years of bloodshed in which 380,000 people died. But troops brought together at joint training sites across the troubled country were deserting because of a lack of food and other essentials, said UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) special representative David Shearer. “There has been almost no movement on the critical areas of security sector reform,” Shearer told a news conference in Juba. “At the moment, the process is stuck. It hasn’t even moved past the first stage, where forces are trained and graduated. Urgent action is needed to move the process forward.” There was a risk of renewed violence as soldiers disillusioned with the promise of peace return to their villages hungry and frustrated, he said. “Disillusion is not a good thing – it could lead to frustration and anger and possibly violence,” he said. “A number of people who are there with a promise of joining the armed forces are now going back to the villages… and could cause further instability on the ground.” Shearer also criticized South Sudan’s government army for interfering with peacekeeping missions by UN troops tasked with protecting civilians and aid workers in hotspots plagued by armed unrest. Last month, he said 92 blue helmets were prevented from taking up positions at a new UN base in Lobonok, some 110 kilometers (68 miles) from Juba, by government troops who have been fighting the National Salvation Front (NAS), a holdout rebel group. The September 2018 agreement, to which NAS is not a signatory, paved the way for the creation of a power-sharing government in Juba, which took control in February 2020, formally ending the war. But the young country, born in 2011 from an independence struggle with Sudan, is still fragile, racked by armed violence at a local level and crisis levels of food security. ______Sudan

• Sudan’s negotiating team with SPLM-N al-Hilu has not been changed: statement- Sudan Tribune The Transitional Sovereign Council of Sudan denied any change in the leadership of the government negotiating team the SPLM-North, led by Abdelaziz al-Hilu. In a statement on Monday, the council denied reports that the deputy head of the Sovereign Council and the head of the government negotiating delegation, Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, "Hemetti", had been removed from the negotiation team. "This report is completely inaccurate," stressed the statement. The

CDRC Research Department, September 2020 statement further said that the media also, claimed that the military component of the Council agreed to separate between the state and religion. “The Sovereign Council wants to make it clear that this issue has not been at all discussed in the High Peace Council meetings and that the Council is not concerned with it,” further said the statement. Last August, the SPLM-N al-Hilu withdrew from the peace talks saying the Hemetti who is the general commander of the Rapid Support Forces was not neutral and is not qualified to lead the negotiation delegation. The rebel group went further to demand his removal from the leadership of the government negotiating delegation before to resume talks with the government delegation. Regarding the separation of religion and state, the peace talks between the government and the SPLM-N al-Hilu had been suspended for several months because of the latter insistence to include the secular state in the peace talks. Hamdok and al-Hilu, on 3 September, reached a joint agreement providing to hold informal talks on the separation between the state and religion before the resumption of formal peace talks. ______Uganda

• East African Court of justice to determine Museveni’s 2021 candidature - CGTN The question of whether President Yoweri Museveni will be on the ballot paper for the forthcoming 2021 general elections or not, will be determined today by the East African Court of Justice in Arusha, Tanzania. The regional court that will be presided over by Principal Judge, Monica Mugenyi, is expected to pass its verdict starting at 9:30 am. “Take notice that the above reference is fixed for the delivery of judgment via video conferencing on Wednesday, September 30, 2020, from 9:30 am before Hon. Justice Monica Mugenyi, the principal judge, Hon. Dr. Charles Nyawello and Hon. Charles Nyacha” reads in part the judgment notice that was sent out to the concerned parties last month. “You are hereby required to appear in court via video conference and abide by the guidelines for video conferencing. Please note that if there is no appearance on your part, the Court will proceed to deliver the judgment and make necessary orders, your absence notwithstanding,” the notice further reads. The reference that will be decided today, involves a Ugandan lawyer, Male Mabirizi, who is challenging the decision of the Supreme Court in upholding the amendment of the Constitution to remove the only remaining safety clause on the age limit for the president. The decision of the Supreme Court has since given a green light to President Museveni, who will be above 75 years at the next polls to contest. However, lawyer Mabirizi wants to block this move by having the age limit clause of 102 (b), reinstated in the Constitution. Should the regional court agree with the arguments of Mabirizi, age limit clauses will be reinstated into the Constitution and this will make President Museveni ineligible to contest again since he is already above the age limit which is 75. On the contrary, should the court dismiss the reference, Museveni will be eligible to be on the ballot paper as the flag bearer for the NRM

CDRC Research Department, September 2020 party since top party organs have endorsed him as their sole presidential candidate in the next year’s polls. ______

Africa • Tanzania’s electoral body sets over 80,000 polling centers ahead of general elections - XINHUA Tanzania’s electoral body announced on Tuesday it has set a total of 80,155 polling centers ahead of the October 28 general elections. Mbarouk Salim Mbarouk, the vice-chairman of the National Electoral Commission (NEC), said 79,670 out of the 80,155 polling centers have been set in mainland Tanzania and 485 centers in the Zanzibar archipelago. “Each of the polling centers will cater for less than 500 voters,” Mbarouk told a meeting of election stakeholders in the capital Dodoma. He said arrangements have been made for voters with special needs, including the deaf, people with disabilities, and aged people. Giveness Aswile, NEC’s director for information and voter’s education, said preparations for the election were in full swing. “NEC has started receiving facilities for the polls and ballot papers will be supplied close to the elections,” said Aswile. According to the NEC, about 29 million Tanzanians have registered to vote in this year’s election, compared to some 23 million voters registered in 2015. Tanzania has a population of about 57 million. ______

• Guinea ‘closes border’ with neighbours ahead of polls - AFP Guinea has closed its border with Senegal and Guinea-Bissau ahead of the general elections, a government official has been quoted as saying by AFP news agency. The official said the closure was for security reasons, according to the agency. Guinea-Bissau’s Interior Minister, Botche Cande, said the border had been closed since Sunday but his Guinean counterpart did not confirm. Guinea’s President Alpha Condé is seeking a controversial third term in 18 October general elections. The president is taking advantage of a new constitution to circumvent a two-term presidential limit. ______

• Coronavirus lockdown costs South Africa millions of jobs-BBC South Africa's economy lost 2.2 million jobs in the second quarter of 2020 during the country's coronavirus lockdown, the authorities say. It is the biggest fall in job numbers since the employment survey began in 2008. Restrictions were brought in to try and prevent the spread of the virus and the economy subsequently shrank at an unprecedented level. Most businesses were

CDRC Research Department, September 2020 shut for five weeks from 27 March. It was one of the strictest lockdowns in the world. The national statistics office's figure for the number of people who have not been economically inactive indicated an even more dramatic economic decline. Between March and June that figure increased by 5.3 million people to 20.5 million. The official unemployment rate actually dropped in that quarter from 23.3% from 30.1% in the first quarter of 2020. But this may just indicate that lockdown prevented people from looking for work. The fall in the unemployment rate "is not a reflection of an improvement in the labor market, but rather an effect of the national lockdown, since the official definition of unemployment requires that people look for work and are available for work", said the statistics office. In May, South Africa introduced social relief of distress grants of 350 rand per month ($21; £16) for people who are unemployed. There have been 653,444 recorded cases of coronavirus in South Africa - the 10th highest in the world. More than 15,800 people have died. South Africa was one of the first countries in the world to impose a lockdown, which at first included a ban on everything from dog walking to cigarette sales. The restrictions have been loosened gradually and from 20 September an overnight curfew was reduced, gatherings were allowed at 50% of a venue's capacity, and restrictions on the sale of alcohol were eased.

______Gulf Region and the Middle East Libya

• Libya dialogue resumes in Morocco despite conflicting agendas-Middle East Monitor The second round of Libyan talks are due to begin today in the Moroccan resort town of Bouznika, south of Rabat, with the participation of representatives of the High Council of State in Libya and the House of Representatives. Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper quoted informed sources in Rabat as saying that the second round had previously been postponed due to a conflict in the agendas of the parties to the conflict. The second Bouznika meeting will take place amid leaks about internal disputes in the Moroccan state institutions about managing the Libyan file, what local sources considered “external disturbances that seek to thwart the Moroccan role in resolving the Libyan crisis.” The same sources emphasised that Morocco is managing the Libyan file in complete harmony and consultation among all components of the state. The sources pointed out that the aim of the second Bouznika round of talks is to achieve consensus to unify the Libyan state institutions in the east and west of the country, form a technocratic government and restructure the Presidential Council, in addition to signing what was agreed upon in the first Bouznika meeting.

• US judge mostly rejects Haftar's move to dismiss suits-Anadolu A US District Court judge on Tuesday largely rejected renegade Libyan General Khalifa Haftar's effort to dismiss a pair of lawsuits against him brought by plaintiffs who say he is responsible for the deaths of their family members. Haftar has argued that the cases against him should be

CDRC Research Department, September 2020 dismissed because he is immune from legal action under his claim of being Libya's head of state. He is the head of eastern Libya's Libyan National Army (LNA), which is locked in a power struggle with the internationally-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) based in the capital, Tripoli. Faisal Gill, a lawyer representing the families, said in an interview with Anadolu Agency following Tuesday's virtual hearing that Judge Leonie Brinkema has largely rejected the state immunity claim but allowed 60 days for the State Department to formally weigh in on the matter. It is unclear if it will. Should the State Department not respond, the case will proceed to what is known as discovery, when each side can request documents and ask questions from the other. Asked in August whether the Trump administration views Haftar in any way as Libya's head of state, a State Department spokeswoman who spoke on condition of anonymity told Anadolu Agency "there has been no change to the U.S. position with regard to recognition of the Libyan Government of National Accord." "The Libyan Political Agreement and its associated institutions, including the GNA, are the sole internationally recognized framework for Libya’s governance and political transition, as affirmed by the UN Security Council," she said. Haftar's legal team additionally argues that the plaintiffs are presenting a "political question" ill-suited to be resolved by the courts and that their clients -- Haftar and his two sons -- were not properly served notice of the lawsuit. That argument was also rejected by Brinkema, the presiding judge, Gill said. Two lawsuits that have been filed in a US court in the state of Virginia by victims' families accuse Haftar of being responsible for gross human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings and torture committed by his forces during the course of Libya's civil war. They seek millions of dollars in compensation that can be accrued from property owned by Haftar, a dual US-Libyan national who had lived with his sons Khalid and Saddam for years in Virginia after a falling out with Libya's deceased former strongman Muammar Gaddafi. While the judge heard Haftar's motion to dismiss both cases during a single session, they are currently being considered separate cases. ______Iran • Iran denies it’s training terrorist group active in Saudi Arabia-Middle East Monitor The Iranian Foreign Ministry today dismissed charges that it had trained a terrorist cell captured in Saudi Arabia, local news agencies reported. In a statement issued by Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Saeed Khatibzadeh, he described the Saudi claim as “a rehash of old accusations”. “The recent accusations levelled by Saudi officials against the Islamic Republic of Iran are in line with the country’s invalid and repetitive positions over the past years.” According to the statement, which was reported by Tasnim news agency, Khatibzadeh also said: “By abandoning political wisdom, and, this time, in the form of a threadbare show, Saudi rulers have fabricated a false case against Iran as a ploy to deflect public attention in order to cover up its own failed moves.” “The Saudi rulers’ move to claim vulgar, cliché and worthless accusations is not a path that would help

CDRC Research Department, September 2020 the Arab country achieve its goals. “We recommend Saudi Arabia opt for the path of honesty and wisdom rather than playing out worthless and dictated scenarios.” Saudi Arabia had claimed it had captured a “terrorist cell” consisting of ten people, claiming they received training in Iran. ______Kuwait

• Kuwait swears in new emir after Sheikh Sabah’s death - Aljazeera Kuwait has sworn in its new emir, Sheikh Nawaf al-Ahmad al-Sabah, to receive the body of his half-brother, the late ruler Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah who died in the United States at the age of 91. The body of Sheikh Sabah, an acclaimed diplomat and mediator who ruled for 14 years, is expected to arrive in Kuwait City later on Wednesday. He died on Tuesday in Minnesota where he had been undergoing treatment in hospital since July. Kuwait’s new leader, 83-year-old Crown Prince Sheikh Nawaf, was sworn in at about 08:00 GMT during a session of the National Assembly. The Gulf state has already begun a 40-day period of national mourning. Sheikh Sabah earned a reputation as a remarkable leader who helped steer his country through the 1990 Iraqi invasion, crashes in global oil markets and upheavals in parliament and on the streets. World leaders and Kuwaitis alike have hailed the legacy of the late emir, architect of the nation’s modern foreign policy and mediator in some of the worst crises to grip the Gulf. “This man was the safety valve of the Arab world, not just for Kuwait,” Bandar al-Dahani, a Kuwaiti citizen, told AFP news agency. “God willing, that goodness will be in Crown Prince Sheikh Nawaf and he will follow the emir’s path.” Sheikh Nawaf, who has held high office for decades, takes over with Kuwait facing the repercussions of the coronavirus crisis, which triggered a sharp decline in oil prices and severe economic consequences for Gulf states. The elder statesman, who was named heir apparent in 2006, served as defense minister when Iraqi troops rolled into the oil-rich emirate in 1990, and also as interior minister in the face of challenges from armed groups. The new leader is popular within the ruling al-Sabah family and is reported to have been a consensus choice for ruler. He also enjoys a reputation for modesty and has largely maintained a low profile. Significant policy changes are not expected during his reign, even after the Gulf underwent a seismic shift with Kuwait’s neighbors, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, opting to establish relations with Israel. Normalisation with the Jewish state is highly unpopular among the Kuwaiti public, which largely supports the Arab world’s historic position of demanding a resolution of the Palestinian cause before giving diplomatic concessions to Israel. Kuwait’s constitution stipulates that the ruler should be a descendant of the nation’s founder, Mubarak al-Sabah, but the throne has alternated between the descendants of his sons, Salem and Jaber, for four decades. Candidates for the newly vacated role of crown prince include Sheikh Sabah’s son and former deputy prime minister, Nasser Sabah al-Ahmed al-Sabah, a Kuwaiti political heavyweight. “Sheikh Nawaf al-Ahmed should be viewed more as a caretaker than as a watershed new leader,” said Cinzia Bianco, a research fellow

CDRC Research Department, September 2020 at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Behind the scenes, however, younger princes would likely continue to compete to succeed him.”

• Kuwait mourns Emir Sheikh Sabah, veteran defender of Arab unity- Reuters Kuwait’s Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad Al-Sabah died on Tuesday aged 91, plunging his country into mourning for a leader regarded by many Gulf Arabs as a savvy diplomatic operator and a humanitarian champion. The cabinet announced his brother and designated successor Crown Prince Sheikh Nawaf al-Ahmad Al-Sabah as the new ruler in a statement read on state television. The parliamentary speaker tweeted that Sheikh Nawaf, 83, would be sworn in on Wednesday. Sheikh Sabah had ruled the wealthy oil producer and U.S. ally since 2006, and steered its foreign policy for more than 50 years. “With hearts filled with pain and sadness for the Kuwaiti people, the Islamic and Arab world and nations of the world, and with faith in the will of God, the cabinet mourns ... Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Jaber Al-Sabah who died in the United States on Tuesday,” the statement said. The emir’s body will arrive on Wednesday in Kuwait from the United States, where he had been in hospital since July following surgery in Kuwait that month, state media reported on Tuesday, citing the Amiri Diwan. The minister of the Amiri Diwan said on Tuesday that in compliance with safety and public health requirements, the burial ceremony for the deceased emir will be limited to relatives only, state media reported. Flags were flying at half-staff in Kuwait, which announced 40 days of mourning. “Goodbye, Emir of Humanity,” read a large banner on a street near the Kuwait Stock Exchange. Kuwait Towers, a seaside landmark normally lit at night, went dark. Condolences poured in from Arab leaders and several countries in the region announced mourning periods. Sheikh Sabah sought to balance relations with Kuwait’s bigger neighbors - forging close ties with Saudi Arabia, rebuilding links with former occupier Iraq and keeping open dialogue with Iran. He tried to mediate in a Gulf dispute in which Riyadh and its allies imposed a boycott on Qatar, and made fundraising for humanitarian aid in Syria one of Kuwait’s priorities. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, in an Arabic-language tweet, lauded Sheikh Sabah for fostering “moderation and balance” in Kuwait and the region. “Today we lost a big brother and a wise and loving leader ... who spared no effort for Arab unity,” said Jordan’s King Abdullah, also on Twitter. Sheikh Sabah kept strong ties with the United States, which led a coalition that ended Iraq’s 1990-91 occupation of Kuwait and used the Gulf state as a launch pad for the 2003 Iraq invasion. U.S. President Donald Trump said in a statement he was saddened by the death of a dear friend and called Sheikh Sabah an “unwavering friend and partner to the United States”. Trump earlier this month awarded the U.S. Legion of Merit, Degree Chief Commander, to Sheikh Sabah in what the White House said was the first time the honor has been given since 1991. The emir’s eldest son, Sheikh Nasser, accepted the award. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres praised the emir as “an extraordinary symbol of wisdom and generosity, a messenger of peace, a bridge builder.” The Kuwaiti dinar fell against the dollar in the forward market on Tuesday and Kuwaiti stocks plunged, ahead of the official announcement

CDRC Research Department, September 2020 of the emir’s death. Under Kuwait’s constitution, the crown prince automatically becomes emir but assumes power only after taking an oath in parliament, for which elections are due this year. “I don’t see a major change in foreign policy under the new emir, largely because Kuwaiti foreign policy is pretty popular domestically and regionally and is seen as effective,” Courtney Freer, research fellow at LSE Middle East Centre, told Reuters. The succession is not expected to affect oil policy or foreign investment strategy through the Kuwait Investment Authority, one of the world’s biggest sovereign wealth funds. The new emir’s choice of crown prince and premier - who would be tasked with managing the government’s often difficult relationship with parliament - will be watched closely. “The new Emir will accede to the throne facing several tough challenges, including the coronavirus crisis, low oil prices, and delicate foreign politics,” London-based Capital Economics said in a research note. An immediate priority would be a long-awaited debt law allowing Kuwait to tap global markets to finance a budget deficit, it said. Parliament, which analysts say has posed an obstacle to reform efforts, has repeatedly rejected the law. Although most political power in Kuwait is in the hands of the emir, its parliament is one of the most influential elected bodies among Gulf monarchies. ______Emerging Powers US elections

• Trump, Biden battle in ‘ugly’ first US election debate - Aljazeera President Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden engaged in a heated and at times ugly exchange of words in the first presidential debate of the US election. President Trump accused Biden of being a leftist and promoting socialism. Biden openly called Trump a racist and told him to “shut up” as Trump repeatedly tried to goad Biden with interruptions. The debate did little to illuminate the policy choices facing Americans in the election and probably did not shift the dynamic of a race in which the incumbent, Trump, is fighting from behind. “It was awful. It was hardly a debate. What we saw was Trump being Trump which was out of control most of the time,” said Paul Beck, a political science professor at Ohio State University. Trump recast many of his lines from the stump speech he has been giving at the airport rallies he has been holding in competitive states. “What we have heard from Trump” were the same attack lines against Biden “repeated over and over again tonight,” Beck said. The signal it sends is Trump “thinks he is behind and he is clearly doubling down on the things he thinks will attack and undermine Biden,” Beck said. Former vice president Biden projected an open disdain towards Trump, turning away from the president, calling him “a clown” and addressing viewers directly, saying the president is a “liar” and a “racist”. Instead of changing the narrative of the campaign “what happened tonight turned it into a referendum on Trump,” which is a losing proposition for the president, Beck said. At several points, Trump converted moderator Chris Wallace’s attempts to focus on policy issues

CDRC Research Department, September 2020 into personal attacks on Biden, bringing up his son Hunter Biden’s business dealings with China and alleging he took funding from the wife of the Mayor of Moscow – all claims he has made repeatedly on the campaign trail. Biden rejected Trump’s accusations about his son as “untrue”, but the barrage forced him to acknowledge his son’s troubles in life. “My son, like a lot of people you know at home, had a drug problem. He’s overtaken it. He’s fixed it. He’s worked on it, and I’m proud of him,” Biden said, looking not at Trump but directly into the camera. “Trump demonstrated once again his ability to be an exponential version of himself,” said James Henson, a political science professor and pollster at the University of Texas. “It is hard to imagine that performance persuaded anyone,” Henson said. In an effort to “throw Biden off his game”, Trump was “disruptive beyond any precedent we have seen in a presidential debate,” Henson said. Wallace struggled at times to keep the debate on track, repeatedly reminding Trump that his campaign had agreed to terms of the debate that gave each candidate time to state their views without interruption. Al Jazeera debate analyst Alan Schroeder said the debate was not one “either candidate particularly wanted – nothing to feature in the presidential library”. “Biden’s mission was to protect his lead, which he did. Trump’s mission was to move the needle, which he did not,” Schroeder said. “The bottom line is that the first debate, to no one’s surprise, changed nothing. And that’s good news for Biden,” he said. Given an opportunity to condemn white supremacist groups like the Proud Boys, Trump equivocated. He stumbled in his answer on global warming. And he was self-congratulatory about his response to the COVID-19 pandemic that has killed more than 200,000 Americans. Biden leads Trump in national polls by a significant margin and he leads or is competitive with Trump in key battleground states needed to win the decisive US Electoral College. Nationwide, Biden led Trump by 10 percentage points among likely voters in an ABC News/Washington Post survey released on September 27. A Quinnipiac University poll released on September 23 also showed Biden with a 10-point lead over Trump, consistent with earlier polls in August. Prior to the debate, analysts expected Trump to go on the attack. Typically, in American politics, incumbent presidents come into the debates leading their challenger “and try not to do anything to upset the trajectory of the race”, said Robert Yoon, a lecturer in politics and journalism at the University of Michigan. This year, that dynamic was reversed with Biden in the lead and Trump having to do something to reshape the contest. Yoon expected Trump to “play the role of aggressor”. “Trump clearly had a strategy to show he is a fighter and was not going to let attacks on him go unchallenged,” Yoon said. But, “I didn’t really feel his debate performance did anything to win over undecided people … like suburban women,” Yoon said. Biden at times tried to ignore Trump and speak directly to voters, Yoon said. Biden’s goal was to demonstrate he is not low energy and also avoid losing his temper. He was only partially successful. “He did get flustered early and told Trump to shut up,” Yoon observed. Overall, Yoon called it a “low point in American politics”. “It was a debate in name, but it was a disservice to the voters who were watching,” he said.

CDRC Research Department, September 2020

• Insults and interruptions mar first Trump-Biden debate - Reuters President Donald Trump and Democratic rival Joe Biden battled fiercely over Trump’s record on the coronavirus pandemic, healthcare and the economy in a chaotic and bad-tempered first debate marked by personal insults and Trump’s repeated interruptions. Trump bulldozed his way through the 90-minute debate, trying to goad Biden nearly every time he spoke, claiming that Democrats were trying to steal the November presidential election with mail-in ballots and declining to condemn white supremacist groups when asked to do so. Moderator Chris Wallace of Fox News never established control of the debate, with Trump repeatedly ignoring his calls to let Biden speak. The two White House contenders talked over each other and lobbed insults in a breathtaking political brawl that made it hard for either to make a point. At one point, an exasperated Biden said after Trump’s repeated interruptions: “Will you shut up, man? This is so unpresidential.” Wallace tried in vain to reel in Trump, who ignored his time limits and talked over Biden. “I think that the country would be better served if we allowed both people to speak with fewer interruptions. I’m appealing to you, sir, to do that,” Wallace said. As of Tuesday evening, more than 1.3 million Americans already had cast early ballots. With time running out to change minds or influence the small sliver of undecided voters, the stakes were enormous as the two candidates took the stage five weeks before the Nov. 3 Election Day. For Trump, 74, Tuesday’s debate represented one of the few remaining chances to change the trajectory of a race that most opinion polls show him losing, as the majority of Americans disapprove of his handling of both the pandemic and protests over racial injustice. Biden, 77, has held a consistent lead over Trump in national opinion polls, although surveys in the battleground states that will decide the election show a much closer contest. It was hard to determine whether the debate would move the needle. Trump repeatedly and unsuccessfully tried to fluster Biden and force him into a gaffe, but largely neglected to make any affirmative case for why he is the candidate best suited to tackle fundamental election issues. The hyper-aggressive performance would almost certainly draw raves from his core supporters, but was unlikely to win back critical swing voters, especially suburban women who have turned away from the president over his divisive and combative rhetoric, political strategists say. Trump has more debates with Biden scheduled for October, while Vice President Mike Pence and Biden’s vice-presidential running mate, Kamala Harris, have a debate next week. Tuesday’s debate followed months of racial justice protests over police brutality against Black Americans, which were mostly peaceful but sometimes led to violent clashes between liberal and right-wing protesters. Trump, who has seized on the unrest to push a “law-and-order” message, was asked if he was willing to also condemn white supremacists and tell them to stand down. He initially said he would be willing to do anything for peace but then said most of the violence was from the left wing. Trump also repeated his unfounded complaints that mail-in ballots would lead to widespread election fraud and declined to commit to accepting the results of the election or commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he loses the election. Biden urged Americans to make a plan to vote

CDRC Research Department, September 2020 and assured voters that Trump would be gone if Biden won. He said he would not declare victory until the outcome was validated. Biden was sharply critical of Trump’s record on the coronavirus pandemic which has killed more than 200,000 Americans, accusing him of failing to protect Americans because he was more concerned about the economy. Trump touted his decision to restrict travel from China, where the virus was believed to have originated, early this year and defended his approach on the pandemic. Hours before the debate, Biden released his 2019 tax returns and his campaign called on Trump, who has come under fire for not releasing his returns, to do the same. Biden took the step two days after the New York Times reported Trump paid just $750 in federal income taxes in 2016 and 2017 - and none in 10 of the previous 15 years - following years of reporting steep losses from business enterprises. Trump had long sought to keep his personal financial records secret. The two also sparred over Trump’s effort to swiftly fill a U.S. Supreme Court seat after the death of liberal Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg this month. Defending his nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to fill the seat, which would cement a 6-3 conservative majority on the nation’s highest court, Trump said “elections have consequences” and he had the right despite Democratic objections. Biden said Ginsburg’s seat should be filled after the election, when it was clear who the president would be. He said a more conservative Supreme Court would endanger the Affordable Care Act known as Obamacare. The Supreme Court will hear oral arguments shortly after the election on a Trump administration challenge seeking to strike down the Affordable Care Act, including its popular insurance protections for patients with pre-existing conditions. Democrats have argued Republicans are being hypocritical for moving quickly to fill the seat given they had blocked then-President Barack Obama’s nomination to the Supreme Court in 2016, arguing it should wait until after that November election.

• Trump, Biden lock horns in chaotic political debate-Anadolu US President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden clashed Tuesday evening during a political showdown that repeatedly broke down into fiery exchanges and angry interruptions. The clashes prompted moderator Chris Wallace to castigate Trump, whom he said interrupted Biden far more frequently during the night's debate than the vice president did the incumbent. "Mr. President, please stop,” Wallace said during one of dozens of times the president interrupted Biden. "The country would be better served if we allowed both people to speak with fewer interruptions. I am appealing to you, sir, to do that." Biden also rebuked Trump, whom he said is "the worst president America has ever had," telling Trump "will you just shush for a minute" during one of several times the president attempted to speak over him. “Will you shut up, man?” Biden snapped after the president spoke over him during a different debate segment. The debate covered a slew of topics, including race, the candidates' records, the coronavirus pandemic, violence in American cities, election integrity and climate change. During the back-and-forth, Trump was repeatedly forced to defend his record. Asked by Wallace to condemn white supremacists and militia groups, the president did not, instead telling the Proud Boys neo-fascist organization to "stand back and

CDRC Research Department, September 2020 stand by." It is unclear what the president meant when he told the far-right hate group to "stand by." "But I'll tell you what, somebody's got to do something about Antifa and the left, because this is not a right-wing problem," he said, referring to the leftist anti-fascist movement while refusing to condemn extremists that largely support him. Trump has faced repeated criticism for his handling of white supremacy during his administration, particularly after a mass gathering in Charlottesville, Virginia that attracted hundreds of neo-Nazis and white nationalists. One counter- protester died during the 2017 Unite the Right rally, and shortly after, Trump said there "were very fine people, on both sides." Biden called the president a "racist" who employs "everything as a dog whistle to try to generate racist hatred, racist division." In a political context, dog whistle is used to refer to language that suggests a subtle message to a subset of its audience. "This is not 1950. All these dog whistles on racism don’t work anymore. Suburbs are by and large integrated,” Biden said. At the tail end of the debate, Wallace asked the candidates if they would tell their supporters not to engage in civil unrest and pledge not to declare victory until the election is independently certified. The president declined to do either. "I am urging my supporters to go into the polls, and watch very carefully, because that’s what has to happen. I am urging them to do it," Trump said instead. Biden, however, committed to both requests, saying he "will accept" the results, and claiming the president will too. "You know why? Because once the winner is declared after all the ballots are counted, all the votes are counted, that will be the end of it. And if it’s me, in fact, fine. If it’s not me, I’ll support the outcome. And I’ll be a president not just for Democrats. I’ll be a president for Democrats and Republicans," Biden said. Biden has continued to maintain a comfortable lead in nationwide polling, putting the burden on Trump to dramatically shake up the status quo. It is yet unclear if either candidate was able to make major inroads among voters who have so far remained undecided. Vice President Mike Pence and Senator Kamala Harris will face off next week on Oct. 7 in the sole Vice-Presidential debate. Trump and Biden will again take to the debate stage Oct. 15 and Oct. 22 in the final two presidential debates. ______U.S.-Asia

• Pompeo to visit Japan, S Korea and Mongolia next week - Aljazeera US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will travel to Japan, Mongolia and South Korea next week, the Department of State has announced, a crucial visit to solidify ties with regional allies at a time when Washington’s relationship with China remains fraught. The visit is scheduled to take place from October 4 to 8 and will be Pompeo’s first trip to the region since he went to Thailand in July 2019. After flying to Japan, he will visit Mongolia on October 6 and South Korea on October 7 and 8, the Department of State said on Tuesday. As part of the trip on October 6, Pompeo will participate in the second meeting of “Quad”, a gathering of foreign ministers from India, Australia and Japan. The Quad engagement was revived in 2017 to deepen security cooperation and

CDRC Research Department, September 2020 coordinate alternatives for regional infrastructure financing offered by China. Ties between China and the United States are at the lowest point in decades, with the world’s top two economies at loggerheads over issues ranging from China’s handling of the coronavirus to trade, new national security legislation in Hong Kong and tensions in the South China Sea. His trip comes in the run- up to the November election, with President Donald Trump making a tough approach to China an important foreign policy platform as he tries to win a second term in office. A forceful and outspoken critic of China, Pompeo has led an international campaign for other nations to shun China, including its technology. He met Beijing’s top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, at a US military base in Hawaii in June, but little progress was made and ties continued to deteriorate. Pompeo’s trip to South Korea comes as hopes subside for a breakthrough with North Korea, one of Trump’s earlier foreign policy priorities. Trump has met leader Kim Jong Un three times, and Pompeo recently said that talks were continuing behind the scenes with North Korea, although he admitted that the administration would have liked to have made more progress. Pompeo has been travelling frequently in recent weeks after a slowdown due to the coronavirus. He will head to Asia shortly after wrapping up a trip to Greece, Italy and Croatia. ______Azerbaijan – Armenia conflict

• Azerbaijan and Armenia reject talks as Karabakh conflict zone spreads – Reuters Armenia and Azerbaijan accused one another on Tuesday of firing directly into each other’s territory and rejected pressure to hold peace talks as their conflict over the enclave of Nagorno- Karabakh threatened to mushroom into all-out war. Both reported firing from the other side across their shared border, well to the west of the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region over which fierce fighting broke out between Azeri and ethnic Armenian forces on Sunday. The incidents signaled a further escalation of the conflict despite urgent appeals from Russia, the United States and others to halt it. The conflict has reignited concerns about stability in the South Caucasus region, a corridor for pipelines carrying oil and gas to world markets. Azeri President Ilham Aliyev, speaking to Russian state television, flatly ruled out any possibility of talks. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told the same channel they could not take place while fighting continued. Nagorno-Karabakh is a breakaway region inside Azerbaijan but run by ethnic Armenians and backed by Armenia. It broke away from Azerbaijan in a 1990s war but is not recognized by any country as an independent republic. Dozens of people have been reported killed and hundreds wounded since clashes between Azerbaijan and ethnic Armenian forces broke out on Sunday, threatening to draw in neighbors including Azerbaijan’s close ally Turkey. After a closed-door discussion on Tuesday the 15-member U.N. Security Council “expressed concern” about the clashes, condemned the use of force and backed a call by U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres for an immediate halt to fighting. Further stoking tensions between the two former Soviet

CDRC Research Department, September 2020 republics, Armenia said a Turkish F-16 fighter jet had shot down one of its warplanes over Armenian airspace, killing the pilot. It provided no evidence of the incident. Turkey called the claim “absolutely untrue”, and Azerbaijan also denied it. Azeri leader Aliyev accused Armenia of fabricating the plane incident. “Turkey is not a party to the conflict, in no way participates in it and there is no need for this,” he said. Aliyev said Azerbaijan was calling up tens of thousands of reservists under a partial mobilization announced on Monday. “We are able to punish the aggressor ourselves so that he would not even dare to look in our direction,” he said. ______Europe

• German far-right figure ‘caught’ saying migrants could be gassed – Aljazeera Christian Lueth, of the far-right German party, recorded making comments in undercover documentary, report says. A long-standing member of the far-right Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) political party has been sacked amid reports of his inflammatory comments in which he allegedly said refugees and migrants could be “gassed”. Christian Lueth, who has been with the AfD since the early days of its inception in 2013, was already suspended from his post as parliamentary spokesman after declaring himself a fascist in April. The latest revelations date back to February when he met a right-wing social media influencer in what he believed was a confidential meeting at a bar in Berlin. The conversation, however, was secretly being filmed for a documentary on the far-right in Germany that aired last week. During the conversation, Lueth is reported to have said the AfD intentionally uses provocative tactics. When asked if it was in the party’s interest that more refugees and migrants come to the country, he is reported to have said: “Yes, because the AfD does better. We could later shoot them all. That’s not at all the issue. Or, gassing, or whatever you want. It’s the same to me.” Lueth was not identified in the documentary, but his name was published yesterday by German newspaper Zeit following their further investigations and what they say was “special public interest”. Lueth has yet to make a comment. The AfD, which has peddled itself on anti-immigrant, nationalist agenda and is currently the largest opposition party in the German parliament, was quick to distance itself from the comments. The co-leader of the AfD’s parliamentary group, Alexander Gauland, said: “The comments attributed to Christian [Lueth] are totally unacceptable and incompatible with the aims and policies of the AfD.” Activists said while shocking, such comments from the AfD were not surprising. Aicha, who did not want to give her real name for safety reasons, is a Berlin-based activist with the anti-fascist organization, Migrantifa. She said: “I’m not surprised because the policies of the AfD and other political parties that are moving more to the right, are already killing people. Nazis are regularly attacking people in our communities and our neighborhoods.” The development comes against a backdrop of continued right-wing violence in the country, including arson attacks against minority-owned businesses in Berlin during the summer, and six months after the racist

CDRC Research Department, September 2020 attacks in Hanau, in which nine people were killed by a right-wing attacker. “I think communities need to start protecting themselves from these threats as I don’t think that the state will be there to provide that protection, as it has proven over the last decades. “Since our parents have been in Germany, we’ve been the subject of murder and degradation and exploitation. And even though some of us are not in the same position in society any more, we see new people coming who take that position within society,” said Aicha.

• Belgium breaks 16-month deadlock as new government forms - Reuters Belgium is finally getting a new government on Wednesday, 16 months on from a parliamentary election, with the Belgian king expected to name caretaker finance minister Alexander De Croo as the new prime minister. Following weeks of talks, seven parties spanning the French-Dutch language divide have agreed to form a governing coalition to replace the caretaker administration of Sophie Wilmes, who led Belgium through six months of the COVID-19 crisis. Belgium has one of the world’s highest COVID-19 fatalities per capita. The death toll passed 10,000 on Wednesday. De Croo was set to lead the new government, Belgian newspapers including daily Le Soir reported, citing anonymous sources. Paul Magnette, leader of the French-speaking Socialists, said on Twitter that he was heading to the palace to form a government with other parties. Belgium had been under a caretaker administration since the start of the COVID-19 crisis in March and without a fully- fledged government since December 2018, when a four-party coalition collapsed.

• UK, Canada impose sanctions on Belarus’s Lukashenko-Aljazeera The United Kingdom and Canada have imposed travel bans and asset freezes on Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, his son and other senior officials over accusations their government rigged an election and committed violence against protesters. Tuesday’s sanctions were the first to be implemented by major Western powers over the crisis in Belarus, a close Russian ally. More than 12,000 people have been arrested in mass demonstrations since Lukashenko, who has dominated the country for 26 years, was named the landslide winner of an August 9 presidential election his opponents say was rigged. Lukashenko denies electoral fraud. UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said the sanctions were part of a coordinated approach with Canada “in a bid to uphold democratic values and put pressure on those responsible for repression”. Raab called Lukashenko’s rule “violent and fraudulent” and said the sanctions are meant to send a clear message that “we don’t accept the results of this rigged election”. “We will hold those responsible for the thuggery deployed against the Belarusian people to account,” he said. The British measures include a travel ban and asset freeze on eight officials from the Belarusian government, including Lukashenko, son Victor Lukashenko and Igor Sergeenko, the head of the presidential administration. Canada’s list includes Lukashenko and 10 others. Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne said Canada and the UK acted in concert to ensure the sanctions have a greater effect. “Canada stands in solidarity with the people of Belarus as they

CDRC Research Department, September 2020 struggle to restore human rights and achieve democracy in their country,” Champagne said. The British government says Lukashenko is the first leader sanctioned under Britain’s new global human rights sanctions programme, which was introduced in July. The West has so far sought to tread carefully, balancing sympathy for the pro-democracy movement in Belarus with caution not to provoke Russia. In addition to the UK and Canada, the United States and the European Union regard Lukashenko’s presidency as illegitimate, but he has the backing of longtime ally and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The EU, which Britain quit in January, has said it will impose sanctions on a list of Belarusian officials but has yet to finalize the list. Some small EU countries near Belarus have announced sanctions without waiting for the bloc to act. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron pushed on Tuesday for European mediation in the Belarus political crisis after meeting the ex-Soviet republic’s opposition leader, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, during a visit to Lithuania. After the meeting, Tikhanovskaya told reporters that the French leader had “promised to do everything to help with negotiations, for this political crisis in our country” and had also pledged to help secure the release of political prisoners in Belarus. Tikhanovskaya went into exile in Lithuania after the Belarusian presidential election. Macron hoped that EU sanctions against Belarus officials would be adopted at the next EU summit, according to Tikhanovskaya’s adviser, Franak Vyachorko. Whether the bloc imposes sanctions will depend on whether member state Cyprus changes its position during the EU summit this week. Cyprus has so far insisted it will not agree to sanctions on Belarus unless the bloc also imposes sanctions on Turkey over a separate dispute. The French leader has previously said Putin was favorable to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) mediating in the Belarus crisis. But Putin on Tuesday said that Belarus was in a “difficult situation” and was facing “unprecedented external pressure”. Addressing a forum on the Belarusian and Russian regions, the Russian president said Moscow was ready to stand by Minsk, describing ties as “timeless and all-weather”. Putin has promised to provide Lukashenko with security assistance if the political crisis worsens and has extended a loan of $1.5bn. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov downplayed Macron’s talks with Tikhanovskaya, saying it amounted to a meeting between the “French president and a Belarusian citizen”. Lukashenko has defied calls that he steps down or for outside experts to help mediate the crisis. Many prominent members of a council formed with the aim of arranging a transfer of power in Belarus have been arrested or have fled the country. The protests have persisted despite daily arrests of demonstrators, including 500 people during rallies last weekend.

CDRC Research Department, September 2020