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Economics and Politics of Energy in Central Asia and Caucasus ECONOMICS AND POLITICS OF ENERGY IN CENTRAL ASIA AND CAUCASUS Editors Nevzat SIMSEK Hayal Ayca SIMSEK ECONOMICS AND POLITICS OF ENERGY IN CENTRAL ASIA AND CAUCASUS Editors Nevzat Simsek Hayal Ayca Simsek ERI Books No: 3 ISBN 978-601-243-741-6 This edition published by Eurasian Research Institute Almali Avdani, Mametova 48, 050004, Almaty, Kazakhstan Phone: +7 (727) 279 97 94 Fax: +7 (727) 279 24 26 www.eurasian-research.org e-mail: [email protected] © Khoca Akhmet Yassawi International Kazakh-Turkish University Eurasian Research Institute (ERI), 2016 (print and electronic) All right reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or any part thereof, may not be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher. Distributed by Eurasian Research Institute Almali Avdani, Mametova 48, 050004, Almaty, Kazakhstan Typeset in Turkey by Merkez Repro, Ankara Printed and bound in Kazakhstan by Leader Offset Printing, Almaty 1st Edition: April 2016, Almaty The views expressed in the chapters of this book are the author’s own and do To our Beloved Mums, Words are never enough to thank you for all that you do... CONTENT 6 List of tables 7 List of contributors 9 Foreword 10 Preface 11 PART I INTRODUCTION 1. Theoretical Perspectives in Energy Security NEVZAT SIMSEK AND HAYAL AYCA SIMSEK ...................................... 15 PART II ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF ENERGY POLICY IN CENTRAL ASIA AND CAUCASUS 2. Central Asian Regional Energy Initiatives: Challenges and Opportunities FARKHOD AMINJONOV ............................................................................ 41 3. Financing Energy Projects: A Comparative Approach of Competing Methodologies ANASTASSIOS GENTZOGLANIS ............................................................. 63 4. Economic Growth, Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions: A Multivariate Cointegration and Causality Analysis for Central Asian Countries EDA YALCIN KAYACAN, JOSHUA DAVID COWLEY AND MEHMET VEDAT PAZARLIOGLU .................................................. 85 5. The Relationship between Energy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Evaluation on Central Asian Countries and Azerbaijan SIDIKA BASCI, CUMHUR CICEKCI AND EMRAH OZ .......................... 99 6. Natural Resource Abundance, Institutional Quality and Economic Growth in CIS Countries YESSENGALI OSKENBAYEV AND NURGUL SATYBALDIYEVA ................................................................... 119 PART III POLITICAL ASPECTS OF ENERGY POLICY IN CENTRAL ASIA AND CAUCASUS 7. A Game of Central Asia Hold’em ANCA-ELENA MIHALACHE ................................................................... 153 8. Regional Cooperation in the Caspian Sea Region in the Context of the Eurasian Integration LIDIYA PARKHOMCHIK .......................................................................... 167 Caspian Sea Region MUZAFFER ERCAN YILMAZ ................................................................. 185 10. Comperative Analysis of Russian and Ukrainian Gas Transit Powers FARKHOD AMINJONOV .......................................................................... 197 11. The Project of the Present-Day Silk Route: TRACECA and Turkey’s Role HASAN SAYILAN ...................................................................................... 215 12. The Importance of Turkey as a Potential Gateway Country in Eurasia for Sustainable Gas Supply CAN DENIZ KOKSAL ............................................................................... 229 13. Water Management in Central Asia SAULE AKHMETALIYEVA ...................................................................... 239 Figures 1.1 Factors Affecting Energy Security ....................................................... 18 1.2 Risks for Energy Security .................................................................... 24 3.1 Typical Project (Wind/Solar farm) Finance Structure ......................... 74 3.2 Percentage Spent by Instrument for the Transformation of Kazakhstan’s Renewable Energy Market ....................................... 80 5.1 Azerbaijan .......................................................................................... 103 5.2 Kazakhstan ......................................................................................... 103 5.3 Kyrgyz Republic ................................................................................ 104 5.4 Tajikistan ............................................................................................ 104 5.5 Turkmenistan ..................................................................................... 105 5.6 Uzbekistan ......................................................................................... 105 6.1 The Conceptual Framework of the Research ..................................... 121 6.2 CIM versus Time in Azerbaijan, 1993-2010 ...................................... 125 6.3 CIM versus Time in Kazakhstan, 1993-2010 .................................... 128 6.4 CIM versus Time in Russia Federation, 1993-2010 .......................... 130 6.5 Russia, Trade with EU, Trade Flows by SITC Section 2011-2014 ................................................................... 131 6 6.6 Institutions and Resource Abundance in 8 CIS Countries, 1993-2010 ..........................................................136-140 6.7 Log of Resource Rents Share in Income and Log of Agricultural Growth Contribution to GDP ......................143-144 8.1 Export/Import between the EAEU States and Iran in January-June 2015 ......................................................................... 177 8.2 The Volume of Bilateral Trade between the Caspian Countries in 2014 (billion dollars) ....................................... 181 9.1 The South Energy Corridor Project ................................................... 190 9.2 The Trans-Caspian Pipeline Project ................................................... 191 9.3 The Kazakhstan-China Oil Pipeline .................................................. 192 9.4 The Turkmenistan-China Gas Pipeline .............................................. 193 11.1 Organizational Structure of TRACECA Project ................................ 219 11.2 The Routes of the TRACECA Project ............................................... 220 11.3 TRACECA Project Routes of Turkey ................................................ 222 12.1 Primary and Proposed Eurasian Oil and Gas Pipelines to Europe ............................................................................ 231 12.2 AHP Flowchart of Determining Most Appropriate Pipeline .......................................................................... 235 13.1 Changing Dynamics of the Aral Sea (1960-2010) ............................ 250 Tables 1.1 Dimensions of Energy Security ........................................................... 19 1.2 Factors Affecting Security of Energy Supply ...................................... 21 1.3 Priorities for Energy Security .............................................................. 28 2.1 Energy Security Projects ...................................................................... 45 2.2 Agencies Promoting Regional Cooperation in Energy ........................ 53 3.1 Main Characteristics of the NPV and DNPV Rules for Energy Projects Evaluation ............................................................ 72 4.1 Descriptive Statistics ........................................................................... 91 4.2 Unit Root Test Results ......................................................................... 92 4.3 Results of the Johansen Co-integration Test by the Max-eigenvalue and Trace Methods ................................ 93 4.4 Results of Granger Causality Test on Based VECM and VAR .................................................................................. 94 5.1 Recession Periods .............................................................................. 102 5.2 Overview of Energy Production, Consumption and Reserves (2011) ........................................................................... 107 5.3 Overview of Electricity Production and Consumption (2011) ................................................................... 109 7 5.4 Pesaran (2004) Cross-Section Dependence Test Result.......................................................................................... 114 5.5 Unit Root Test Results ....................................................................... 114 5.6 Westerlund Cointegration Tests ......................................................... 115 5.7 Model Estimations ............................................................................. 115 6.1 Data and Descriptive Statistics .......................................................... 123 6.2 Results of the Unit Root Tests for the Full Sample ........................... 132 6.3 Regression of Economic Growth on Resource Abundance and Institutions, 1993-2010 ............................................ 133 6.4 Institutional Quality (CIM) and Resource Abundance ......................................................................... 141 Estimates from Table 3 ...................................................................... 142 6.6 Crowding-out Effect of Resource Rents on Agricultural Production and Wheat Production Growth Contribution to GDP ............................................................
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