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TVS Motor Company TVS Motor Company Sector: Auto/Mid cap Initiating Coverage 21 March 201420 M arch 2014 Sensex Nifty Price: INR 90 Target Price: INR 106 OUTPERFORMER 21,833 6,524 Background : TVS Motor, formerly known as TVS Suzuki, is the flagship company of TVS group and the fourth largest two wheeler manufacturer in India. TVS has manufacturing facilities in Hosur, Mysore, Himachal Pradesh and Indonesia with a production capacity of 2.8mn. The product portfolio of TVS encompasses motorcycles (40%), mopeds(20%), scooters (22%), 3 Wheelers (6%) and Spares & Others(12%). TVS exports it products to over 50 countries and derives ~12% of revenues from exports. The market share across various segments are: Motorcycles (6%), Scooters (12%), Mopeds (100%) and 3 Wheelers (10%). In 2013, TVS entered into technical collaboration with BMW to develop a series of sub 500cc bikes that are expected to rollout in 2HFY15. 52 Week High/Low INR 28/91 On a comeback trail to regain market share Bloomberg code TVSL IN Revenues to grow at 16% CAGR during FY14-16 on traction in scooter and 3 wheeler exports Reuters code TVSM NS On the back of momentum in export volumes, traction in scooters and 3W exports and off-take in executive Issued Equity 475.1 bikes, we expect TVS to attain volume growth of 12.5% CAGR over FY14-16 to 2.59mn units leading to a (shares in mn) revenue growth of 16% CAGR to INR 103.2bn in FY16. Timely expansion of product portfolio with expected Mkt. Cap in mn INR 42284 successful new launches in the executive motorcycles segment coupled with aggressive spending on Mkt. Cap in mn USD $ 692.1 advertising are likely to help TVS arrest its sliding market share and subsequently improve its market share Avg. Daily Vol. (‘000) 2526.6 from 13% in FY13 to 16% by FY16. Avg. Daily Vol. (mn) INR217/$3.5 Well positioned to ride on the Scooter mania Shareholding Dec 13 Sep 13 Dec 12 TVS has a complete portfolio catering to all user segments. (men, women & unisex). With launch of Jupiter and Scooty Zest, the company aims at selling 50,000 scooters/month from 1QFY15 onwards and also plans Promoters(%) 57.40 57.40 57.40 to ramp up scooter capacity to 75000 units by FY15 to cater to the burgeoning demand. Success of new FII (%) 3.35 2.51 1.93 product launches coupled with traction in Jupiter volumes can spur scooter volumes and help TVS improve its DII (%) 17.70 18.29 18.10 market share. TVS aims to increase its market share from 12% to ~18% by FY15 in the scooters segment. Others (%) 21.55 21.8 22.57 Pledge (% of Indonesian unit break even hinges on success of Skubeck and new product launches promoter 0.00 0.00 NA TVS has set an ambitious sales volume target of 60,000 units for FY15, implying a growth of 78% CAGR in holding) FY13-15. We believe that the Indonesian subsidiary will reach the sales target by FY16 and turn EPS accretive in FY16 and not in FY15 as projected by the management. The profitability in the Indonesian Performance% 1M 3M 6M subsidiary largely depends on the success of Skubeck and new product launches. TVS 7.92 60.78 156.3 Change in product mix can and healthy exports can trigger margin expansion Sensex 7.08 5.57 10.47 We expect EBITDA margins to improve 90bps to 6.7% by FY16 on the back of change in product mix (increased proportion of 3W and Scooters), higher share of export volumes (12% in FY13 to 15% by FY16), 100 250 off-take in new product launches and benefits from operating leverage. 90 80 200 Outlook & Valuation: We initiate coverage on TVS Motor Company with a OUTPERFORMER rating 70 given its robust product portfolio, momentum in scooters and 3W exports, strong distribution network, new product launches and moderation in debt levels going forward. At CMP of INR 90, the stock is trading at 60 150 13.1/10.5 FY15/16E EPS. We value the stock at 12x FY16 EPS, which gives us a target price of INR 106, 50 implying an upside potential of ~18%. RIsks: Failure of new product launches coupled with persistence of 40 100 subdued macro conditions can have an adverse impact on sales volume estimates. Sustained losses in 30 Indonesian subsidiary remain a concern. 20 50 Valuation Summary 10 Y/E March ( INR mn) FY13 FY 14 FY 15E FY16E 0 0 Revenue 70,650 76,436 88,946 103,185 13 13 13 14 13 14 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 EBITDA 4,090 4,565 5,721 6,896 - - - - - - - - - - - - - Adj.PAT Jul 2,069 2,318 3,255 4,081 Jan Oct Apr Jun Feb Mar Mar Dec Sep Aug Nov May Adj.EPS 4.4 4.9 6.9 8.6 TVS Motor Relative Sensex (RHS) EPS growth (%) -16.9 12.1 40.4 25.4 FCF / Share 7.2 4.6 7.1 9.4 PE 20.5 18.4 13.1 10.5 P/ BV 3.5 3.1 2.6 2.2 Rajasekhar R +91-44-30007360 EV / Sales 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 [email protected] EV / EBIDTA 12.0 10.4 7.8 6.2 Dividend Yield (%) 1.3 1.4 1.8 2.4 ROCE (%) 11.6 19.3 24.6 27.0 ROE (%) 9.7 17.8 21.7 23.1 Net Debt / Equity 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 1 Company Overview TVS Motor Company, the flagship company of USD 7.3bn TVS Group, is the third largest two wheeler manufacturer in India. The product portfolio of TVS comprises motorcycles, scooters, mopeds and auto rickshaws. The company is equipped with state-of-the-art manufacturing facilities at Hosur in Tamil Nadu, Mysore in Karnataka, Nalagarh in Himachal Pradesh and Karawang in Indonesia and currently has a production capacity of 2.8mn units in the domestic market and 0.3mn units in the Indonesian facility. In 1982, Suzuki came together with TVS for the production of 100cc motorcycles under the name of Ind-Suzuki. TVS and Suzuki shared a 19 year long relationship that was aimed at technology transfer to enable design and manufacture of motorcycles for the Indian market. Some of the popular products from the joint venture include the Suzuki Samurai, Suzuki Shogun and Suzuki Fiero. Post break-up of the alliance in 2001, the market share of TVS dipped from ~17% in FY02 to 13% in FY13 on account of infrequent product launches/up gradations as compared to competition and time taken to develop indigenous 4-stroke technology. In 2013, the company has announced technical collaboration with German premium motorcycle brand BMW with an aim to produce bikes in the sub 500cc segment and penetrate into the premium 2 wheeler market in India. The chronology of key events since the company's inception is briefly outlined below. • The company set up its first plant at Hosur to manufacture mopeds. Produced India's first two-seater moped 1980 - TVS 50 • The company entered into a technical know-how and assistance agreement with Suzuki Motor Co Ltd of 1982 Japan. • Launched India's first indigenous scooterette - TVS Scooty, a 100cc model. 1994 • TVS Group and Suzuki part ways from their 19year joint-venture. Launched India's first fully indigenously 2001 designed and manufactured motorcylce - TVS Victor. • TVS launched its first plant outside India in Indonesia. 2006 • TVS rolls out 7 new products. Forays into the 3 Wheeler market 2007 • The company has developed an engine that is 20% more fuel efficient and is usable in scooters and 2011 motorcycles. • BMW Motorrad and TVS sign a cooperation agreement with the aim to develop and produce motorcycles in 2012 the segment below 500cc Source Company, CSEC Research For many years, TVS remained as India’s third largest two-wheeler maker with a market share of 18-20% until Honda captured its position in FY12. Since then, TVS has languished in fourth place. The company's market share in the motorcycle segment rapidly shrank to 6% in FY13 from 19% in FY03 due to slackened pace of introducing new products and under representation executive bike segment. In the mopeds segment, where the company has no competition, TVS commands 100% market share. With Scooty, the largest selling scooter in the female category the company commands a market share of ~12% in the scooters segment. In 2007, TVS announced its foray into the 3 wheeler market with TVS King, India's first 200cc 2-stroke auto rickshaw equipped with an electric start. Currently, 2 TVS operates only in the 3 Wheeler passenger segment. Within the first 3 years, TVS has been able to garner a market share of 10% in the 3 wheeler segment. TVS operates in the two and three wheeler markets. The two wheeler segment is further classified into scooters, motorcycles and mopeds. With the introduction of TVS Jupiter targeted at male user segment and Phoenix in the executive bike segment, TVS is armed with a complete product portfolio catering to the needs of all user segments. The product portfolio of TVS is briefly outlined below. In FY13, the standalone entity reported overall revenues of INR 70.65bn, reflecting a de-growth of 1% YoY on account of subdued demand coupled with weak macro economic conditions. Motorcycles (40%) constitute the majority of revenues followed by Scooters (22%), Mopeds (20.5%), 3 Wheelers (6.2%) and Spares & Others (12%). Apart from the core 2 wheeler business, TVS has also ventured into other businesses such as auto components, Wind Energy and Housing through its subsidiaries.
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