The Tech Edge Fave, Juniper, Has Some VPN Business Brewing
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Issue 5: Tuesday, January 8, 2002 In This Issue Page 1 Tech Focus: Virtual Networks = Real Opportunity Page 3 Tech Screen: Low-Grade Debt Spells Trouble Page 4 Tech Sector Updates Page 6 George Mannes: Beware the Tech Sirens Page 6 Reader Feedback and Questions for Scott Moritz Tech Focus: Virtual Networks = Real Opportunity As phone companies attempt to shift from cash-burning to cash-earning strategies, virtual private networks (VPNs) offer one of the few new offerings that may please the bean counters. VPNs allow encrypted information to “tunnel” from point to point, through the Internet and the public phone network. As such, VPNs serve as a far cheaper alternative to the conventional method of hauling secure data along specially installed, dedicated lines. CIBC World Markets’ equipment analyst Steve Kamman says these private-line data services, which typically use frame-relay or asynchronous transfer mode (ATM) protocols to ship information, amount to a $26 billion-a-year business for the telcos. Introduced as cheap, secure computer links between employee homes and office networks, VPNs simultaneously became the telecommuters’ lifeline, and the tech support staffs’ nightmare. Since VPNs use existing networks, revenue-hungry telcos don’t face steep upfront construction costs before they can tap this lucrative market. And with a much lower-cost technology, Kamman says the telcos can offer alternative data services at cheaper prices with higher margins. Sensing this outsourcing opportunity, telcos increasingly are offering to take the burden off IT teams and manage the whole range of corporate VPN data services, from remote access to corporate private line alternatives. East Coast phone giant Verizon (VZ:NYSE), for one, is gearing up for the VPN push, and joins AT&T (T:NYSE) and WorldCom (WCOM:Nasdaq) among other telcos shopping for the necessary hardware and software. I know, not exactly the stuff telco empires are made of, but given the stodgy spending environment on hand, a boomlet even in a far corner of the industry merits a closer look. Currently, about one in four service providers offer managed VPN services, says Jim Slaby, an analyst with Giga Information Group, a Cambridge, Mass., tech research and consulting firm. But Slaby says that number should double in the next three years as more corporate IT departments turn their external networks over to the professionals. So, Tech Edge readers may be asking, which suppliers are poised to benefit from the growing VPN gear demand? (Continued on next page) PLEASE SEE IMPORTANT LEGAL DISCLAIMER ON LAST PAGE 1 © 1996-2002 TheStreet.com, Inc. All rights reserved. Issue 5: Tuesday, January 8, 2002 The telcos will be shopping at a few choice VPN superstores like Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq), Nortel (NT:NYSE), Alcatel (ALA:NYSE), Lucent (LU:NYSE) and even some smaller shops such as Nokia (NOK:NYSE ADR), which partners with software vendors Check Point Software (CKPT:Nasdaq), Juniper (JNPR:Nasdaq) and NetScreen (NSCN:Nasdaq). It’s fair to say a boost in VPN gear spending, while incrementally positive, isn’t likely to have a dramatic effect on the big four suppliers. It’s the upstarts that stand to gain the most, and The Tech Edge fave, Juniper, has some VPN business brewing. Juniper is said to be close to sealing a contract with Verizon for some VPN gear to be installed at data service subsidiary called Verizon Advanced Data. Notably, the deal would be the first between Juniper and Verizon, the nation’s top equipment buyer. While a Verizon source declined to comment on Juniper, he did say that Verizon was talking with several VPN vendors. Juniper, as I’ve mentioned before, has a few positive long-term trends going its way, but the short term will be rough as spending continues to dry up. Investors must be cautious and opportunistic. Juniper is expensive at its current $22 level, but as more bad news comes out of the upcoming earning season, keep in mind that $15 is a likely bottom for the stock, since at that level Juniper trades at about five times 2002 sales. Another challenger sitting in a sweet spot is NetScreen (NSCN:Nasdaq), a Sunnyvale, Calif., network security shop that’s gained fans with its denser, faster, cheaper technology. NetScreen, which came public last month, aims to combine VPN, security and traffic management functions in one box. However, Wall Street’s post-Sept. 11 security enthusiasm has pumped NetScreen’s market capitalization close to $2 billion, an absurdly rich valuation for an outfit that brought in a mere $34 million in sales in the past year. So it’d probably be wise to watch this outfit from the sidelines and look for some buying opportunities after the IPO hoopla subsides. SafeNet (SFNT:Nasdaq) is another member of the VPN food chain. But this chip and software maker has suffered from the cuts of the carriers. Third-quarter revenue dropped 46% to $4.1 million from year ago levels. You should steer clear until that trend starts to reverse. Regardless of which supplier you choose to back, the relatively mundane land of VPN offers hope for the telco community. This hope stems less from the technology angle as from the fact that when bean counters get ready to start loosening the purse strings, they are always likely to pick the cost with the highest potential return. 2 © 1996-2002 TheStreet.com, Inc. All rights reserved. Issue 5: Tuesday, January 8, 2002 Tech Screen: Low-Grade Debt Spells Trouble Tech investing is synonymous with speculation and risk, but there’s a place for reason and there's no reason to damage your odds by dabbling in dubious stocks. I pulled out the top 10 tech names for your viewing pleasure from a recent Standard & Poor’s list of sub-investment-grade companies. These stocks have rebounded from September lows, but so has the market. And it’s the debt that is the problem. For example, Leap Wireless (LEAP:Nasdaq), number one on this chart, offers low-priced cell service to mostly younger folks in about 38 small cities, a debatable business plan to say the least. During the wireless frenzy of 1999 and 2000, its market value soared into the billions, convincing the company and its creditors that it was always going to be worth billions. Today, Leap's market cap is $750 million vs. total debt of $1.5 billion, and that’s after the stock rose 47% in the past three-and-a-half months. The main thing about credit ratings, beyond flagging potential deadbeats, is that a sub-investment grade ranking makes it difficult and very expensive to raise more money. Typically, if more loans are made, they carry a much higher interest rate, increasing the cost when things get tough. And you can bet things will get tough for these heavily levered companies. Stock Credit Total Performance Company Rating* Debt Since 9/21 Comment Leap Wireless Stock of this small-city cellphone venture CCC $1.5B 47% (LWIN:Nasdaq) has leapt up despite CCC rating. XM Satellite Radio Outerspace stock and high-orbit credit CCC+ $630M 143% (XMSR:Nasdaq) risk befits this car-radio service. Level 3 Without junk bonds this mega network CCC+ $6.2B 43% (LVLT:Nasdaq) wouldn't get built… hmm. EchoStar Star light, star bright, big wish on dish B $5B 32% (DISH:Nasdaq) tonight. Fairchild Semi Venerable chipmaker really slumming it a B $940M 79% (FCS:NYSE) bit. Nextel Nation's #5 wireless company second B $15.1B 22% (NXTL:Nasdaq) only to Sprint PCS in total debt. Adelphia Debt coming due next year, and B+ $14.8B 30% (ADLAC:Nasdaq) refinancing won’t be easy. Charter What’s worse than a lot of debt? A lot of B+ $15.6B -2% (CHTR:Nasdaq) poorly rated debt. It’s merger repellent. Lucent Lucent and its creditors: What hurts one, BB- $6.2B 30% (LU:NYSE) also hurts the other. Apple Computer New crop of flat-panel I-Macs may draw BB $320M 46% (AAPL:Nasdaq) attention away from S&P's black mark. 3 © 1996-2002 TheStreet.com, Inc. All rights reserved. Issue 5: Tuesday, January 8, 2002 George Mannes: Beware The Tech Sirens In ancient mythology, the Sirens were nymphs that lived on a rocky island in the middle of the Mediterranean. Once sailors heard their song, they'd ignore all safety considerations, aim their ships straight toward the Sirens and invariably crash against the lethal coastline. The modern-day sirens are a certain type of alluring tech stock. Stocks that will kill you, or at least drive you crazy with desire, even though deep down inside you know they're bad news. And singing lead in the band these days is Apple Computer (AAPL:Nasdaq). Apple’s every twitch, and every pronouncement made by cult -- excuse me, I mean chief -- executive officer Steve Jobs captivate investors and the investing press. Exhibit A: the appearance of the new flat-panel Mac – faintly reminiscent of the desk lamp once animated by the Jobs-led film studio Pixar (PIXR:Nasdaq) – on the cover of Time magazine. As my colleague Peter Eavis points out, how many new electronics products can get on the cover of Time? Not even Dean Kamen's two-wheeled wonder Ginger made the cut. But really, why should investors care about Apple? I don't care how many cool desk lamps or iMacs or iBooks or iPods or MessagePads or cracking cube computers the company puts out. It’s always had, and always will have, a fraction of the computing market. And its stock, hovering above $22 after a three-month runup, is right where it was, oh, about 14 years ago.