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The Operational Code of Kim Jong- Un: Seeking Effective Diplomacy

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The Operational Code of Kim Jong- Un: Seeking Effective Diplomacy The Operational Code of Kim Jong- Un: Seeking Effective Diplomacy The Harvard community has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters Citation Kim, Eugene. 2018. The Operational Code of Kim Jong-Un: Seeking Effective Diplomacy. Master's thesis, Harvard Extension School. Citable link https://nrs.harvard.edu/URN-3:HUL.INSTREPOS:37365416 Terms of Use This article was downloaded from Harvard University’s DASH repository, and is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http:// nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of- use#LAA The Operational Code of Kim Jong-un: Seeking Effective Diplomacy Eugene Y. Kim A Thesis in the Field of International Relations for the Degree of Master of Liberal Arts in Extension Studies Harvard University November 2018 © 2018 Eugene Y. Kim Abstract Kim Jong-un’s sudden ascent to power reflected the untimely departure of his predecessor, Kim Jong-Il. For the people of North Korea as well as the rest of the world, his modus operandi has only slowly begun to reveal itself with time. While qualitative analyses based on his political movements exist, there is little to no quantitatively based literature that ties him to particular tendencies as a political actor. This thesis explores those tendencies and offers a comparatively useful operational code by analyzing six New Year’s speeches from 2013 to 2018. By building on a former study by Dr. Joseph Bond (1990), in which he gave operational codes to both Kim Jong-Il and Kim Il-Sung, this thesis utilizes his methodology of operational code analysis and develops a more cohesive picture of the enigmatic leader of North Korea, offering a comparative analysis of his tendencies as compared to that of his predecessors. Kim Jong-un had a mere three before being thrust to the helm of the DPRK, which suggests that he is still trying to consolidate power. This thesis explores this intent with respects to his operational code, testing first for salience and consistency of his operational code, then provides a comparative assessment to the other two Kim’s. Comparative analysis reveals Kim Jong- un’s preferences in terms of a consolidation strategy to be largely antithetical to that of Kim Jong-Il, investing in economic growth as opposed to his father’s ‘Military First’ strategy. Findings also suggest that he is far more similar to his grandfather, Kim Il-Sung, in his approach to the political arena, which provides clues as to engagement strategies for future diplomacy. Dedication One evening, when we were already resting on the floor of our hut, dead tired, soup bowls in hand, a fellow prisoner rushed in and asked us to run out to the assembly grounds and see the wonderful sunset. Standing outside we saw sinister clouds glowing in the west and the whole sky alive with clouds of ever-changing shapes and colors, from steel blue to blood red. The desolate grey mud huts provided a sharp contrast, while the puddles on the muddy ground reflected the glowing sky. Then, after minutes of moving silence, one prisoner said to another, "How beautiful the world could be.” -Viktor E. Frankl, Man’s Search for Meaning For my mother, and every person in my life with whom I’ve shared such a moment. i Acknowledgments I am incredibly grateful to the following people for their guidance, knowledge, and support that have made this study and thesis possible. Dr. Joseph Bond, who cofounded Virtual Research and Associates, Inc. and served Lecturer at Harvard University, whose pioneering work in OP code analysis is the foundation for my thesis. I am honored to have had a chance to build on his work and am grateful for the clarity and precision with which he elucidated a subject matter that remains an enigma even today. Dr. Joshua Kertzer, Professor of Government at Harvard University’s Kennedy School and trailblazer in the field of Political Psychology, whose direction, acuity and expertise on the subject matter as my thesis director made this research feasible. Dr. Doug Bond, Lecturer at Harvard University and Research Advisor, who provided me with his expansive knowledge on both the Asia Pacific and political coding schemas. I learned much in our conversations about the idiosyncrasies of Korean political culture due to his time there in SK governmental agencies and could not have done this without him. Dr. Ariane Liazos, Faculty Director of the Writing And Public Service Initiative, without her thorough, painstaking and expeditious perfecting, my writing would not be proudly published. And to all those that I will never forget and always appreciate for giving me a chance to truly stand on the shoulders of giants. ii Table of Contents List of Tables ................................................................................................................. iv List of Acronyms ........................................................................................................... vi Chapter I. Introduction to Research ................................................................................ 1 Purpose and Rationale…………………………………………………………………..3 Research Question, Objectives, and Kim Jong-un’s Operational Code ......................... 4 Chapter II. Background ................................................................................................... 6 Operational Code ......................................................................................................... 6 Previous Study............................................................................................................. 9 Bond 1990 Findings................................................................................................... 10 Chapter III. Research Design and Methodology. ........................................................... 14 Coding Design ........................................................................................................... 14 Strategy of Inquiry: Justification for the Population of Study ..................................... 15 Coding Methodology ................................................................................................. 16 Comparative Analysis Platform: Bond’s Study and Sample Selection ........................ 19 Kim Jong-Il Sample Selection ................................................................................... 20 Kim Il-Sung Sample Selection ................................................................................... 20 Why Hand Coding? ................................................................................................... 21 Intercoder Reliability Assessment .............................................................................. 21 Chapter IV. Biographical Overview of the Three Kims. ................................................ 25 Kim Il-Sung ............................................................................................................... 26 Kim Jong-Il ............................................................................................................... 28 Kim Jong-Un ............................................................................................................. 30 Consolidation of Power ............................................................................................. 30 Bolshevik Influences in Kim Jong-Un’s Policies ....................................................... 31 Something for Nothing .............................................................................................. 34 Kim Jong-Un’s Departure From Silence .................................................................... 35 Chapter V. Results and Analysis . ................................................................................. 37 Discussion of Hypotheses .......................................................................................... 38 Kim Jong-Un’s Operational Code and Changes over time: H1 ................................... 39 iii KWP and the KWP: H2 ............................................................................................. 42 Comparative Study: The Three Kim’s ........................................................................ 45 Kim Jong-Un vs Kim Jong-Il: H3A ........................................................................... 45 Kim Jong-Un vs Kim Il-Sung: H3B ........................................................................... 47 Control Variable in Context: Implications for Economic Overhaul ............................ 50 H3C: Comparative Look at All Three Kims ............................................................... 52 Chapter VI. Research Conclusions. ............................................................................... 53 Unlike Father Like Son: Comparative Look ............................................................... 53 Contemporary Authoritarianism ................................................................................ 55 Concluding Thoughts ................................................................................................ 57 Limitations ................................................................................................................ 58 Appendix 1. Raw Data…………………………………………………………………...61 Appendix 2. Data Entry Sheet…………………………………………………………...65 Appendix 3. Codified Speeches………………………………………………………….85 References…………………………………………………………………………........148 iv List of Tables Table 1. Philosophical & Instrumental
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