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Stake of ASML Holding ASML ASML Holding NV St Andrews Investment Society ASML Holding NV 2018FY ASML Holding NV ASML can be considered scalable, defensible and robust in a rapidly growing industry, which offer the Society an exceptional investment opportunity. Price (29.03.2019) €167.20 Market Cap (bn) €58.2 EV (bn) €63.9 Company Overview ASML is currently the largest supplier of photolithography systems for the Technology, Media and semiconductor industry, focusing primarily in the production of integrated Telecommunications circuits. Headquartered in Veldhoven, Netherlands, their products are Price Target €192.23 closely related to the “Internet of things” in which one electronic network Investment Horizon 6 years will eventually connect all everyday household and industrial technologies. Photolithography machines manufactured by ASML are used to produce 24m performance: computer chips, and as of 2010, ASML had a majority share of 67% of worldwide sales of this machinery. Their manufacturing process has now taken on a more specialist focus in the form of EUV machines (extreme ultraviolet lithography machines), a market expected to grow by 15-20% annually through to 2025, amounting Market Data: to a value of around €6.4 billion. ASML is currently the only supplier of 52- Week Range 130.12-189.50 EUV machines, which are favourable due to their reduced chip-area, faster Shares Out. (bn) 0.42 processing power (20%) and lower power consumption (50%) than 10-nm EV/EBITDA 18.9x EV/OpFCF 20.8x chip technology. ASML has had the second-highest R&D expenditure in P/E 25.99x the chip-making tool industry over the past 5 years, and could become Div./Yield €2.10/1.54% more competitive with its large financial resources, particularly with predicted gross margins at 50% in 2020 from 46% in 2018. Taking a longer- Financial Data ‘18A: term view, the semiconductor market will continue to grow rapidly for Revenue (bn) 10.9 many years to come, making this market hugely promising for large Revenue growth 22.1% returns. EBITDA (bn) 3.4 EBITDA growth 18.6% EBITDA margin 31.0% Investment Rationale Leverage: Net Debt (bn) 5.37 We believe that ASML Holding NV (ASML) is a solid investment because Net Debt/EBITDA 1.59x of how integral and influential the company, is to the microchip manufacturing; broader semiconductor; cloud and wireless data streaming markets. Our confidence is that the company is first and foremost defensible, robust and scalable. Their recent financial statements state a Target Price of €192.23 (share) with an investment horizon until 2025 (6 years). The current price of a share rests at €167.20 (Market Close on Friday 29th March), with a 15% purchase premium over the current share price. The company’s position is defensible because they have shown strong dedication to R&D through the ever- improving product of which is their state-of-the-art ‘key technology’, the holistic lithography system (costing around €100 million each) combining high-tech hardware, through Extreme Ultra Violet (EUV), and advanced software that generates better performance at lower costs per unit per generation. Below we’ll run through why the competitors for the semiconductor market remained such on our comp sheet and why we ultimately went Page 1 of 7 ASML ASML Holding NV with ASML Holding – an argument can be made that ASML has a wider market-access opportunity, with their company model unfettered by technological innovation, while all of the other companies on Comps fulfil specific niche services. The company is robust because we have seen ASML take several hits to their share price through the last quarter of 2018, of which negative impacts were forecasted for the start of 2019, this has not affected the company service nor their share price to a vastly detrimental level as already we are seeing a steady, though with fluctuations, increase in share-value. Furthermore, the company’s revenue projections have come in at around €24 billion for 2025 (with a CAGR of 11.87%), we believe, based on the upward trend in their stick price and their current total revenue at €10.94 billion, ASML have a strong chance of meeting this projection, if perhaps somewhat ambitious. The company’s prospects are scalable because ASML has shown their capacity for innovation and the company’s Price to Earnings ratio has shown to be well ahead of its market competitors thanks to a shares-buyback scheme announced in early January of this year. This is furthered by their international access to markets and their industry-leading Extreme Ultra Violet (EUV) chip-manufacturing. Headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands, ASML employs over 23000 people, with current net sales at €10.9 billion; €2.6 billion net income; and €1.5 billion devoted to R&D. Applied Materials sectorial loses, for the memory and displays market – coming to around a third of their earnings for that sector in the year (1/3 of $2.5billion) – reflect badly on the company’s prospects going into 2019 and through 2020 – they do not seem to have been as resilient to adversity as ASML, but perhaps this is reflective of the fact that their scope of operations, and crucially their investment in R&D, is far more limited than ASML. (figures from 2018) The Extreme Ultra Violet Lithography (EUV/EUVL) market is essential for ASML’s business, the market itself has recently received projected value-increase to €9.19 billion by 2023, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of around 28% between 2018 and 2023. The global market is estimated to reach a value of 3,807million USD by 2026, with a similar CAGR of 26.8% per year. This has been related to the miniaturisation of microchip technologies, and the increase in efficiency of manufacturing and deployment of these lithographic technologies across a broader canvass of applications. EUVL manufacturing is a highly precise, and efficient, form of microchip manufacturing, supporting microchips with 10GHz of clock speed. ASML’s spending on R&D is unparalleled in the industry, with their current R&D investment at 1.5billion. Contrasted to the last several years, we see strong and rapid growth in this sector, with R&D expenditures for the first half year of 2018 of EUR 737.2 million increased compared to the first half year of 2017 (EUR 630.2 million). The R&D expenditures comprise of R&D costs net of credits (including net development costs not eligible for capitalization), of EUR 554.0 million (first half year of 2017: EUR 440.1 million) and capitalization of development expenditures of EUR 183.2 million (first half year of 2017: EUR 190.1 million (source directly from ASML). With the TWINSCAN NXE(EUV) system, the current UV systems have an optical system with a numerical aperture of 0.33, whereas the new optics will have a numerical aperture of 0.55, enabling several generations of geometric chip scaling. This means that computational task executions and data handling shall be faster and smoother thanks to the use of advanced light projection through blueprints known as ‘masks’ – allowing for the advanced and highly efficient manufacturing of the microchips. NAND flash memory drives/makers have been Lam Research’s paragon of memory/storage innovation, when their management announced their projections for sales of 3D NAND products would drop in the first quarter of 2019 and the second half of 2018 – 51% of their September quarterly revenue came from non-volatile memory makers. However, their DRAM logic processors, and the wider industry, prospects have been disciplined and prosperous, but sometimes outpacing demand. Invariably, a huge plunge in chip equipment would have serious impact on solid-state and non-volatile memory/storage requirements and compatibility, as would a huge breakthrough. Because of the uncertainty surrounding Lam Research’s position with these two frontline products, we would make the case that ASML, because of the nature of their product, is more influential in the global markets and for determining the trajectory, if it all just ambitions, of markets such as memory/storage devices and logical processors. In December 2018, the company’s share price took a hit when one of their suppliers, Prodrive, experienced a fire at their manufacturing plant for the components and vital materials for ASML TWINSCAN lithography chips. Page 2 of 7 ASML ASML Holding NV Despite the company’s share price dropping suddenly upon this incident, they did not feel real-term impact until the first quarter of 2019 when material delivers did start to stall, however, they have slowly regained their position and their share price has risen. This is supported by their overall spread and access to R&D elements in the United States, Taiwan, and South Korea, with 60 corporate offices in 16 countries. ASML is predicted to have a strong influence in the development of these chips and the process of making them more specific per each company’s specifications (using EUV/EUVL tech as precedent), although we acknowledge the risk of contracts being farmed out to other companies of a similar function. ASML has also recently settled in legal proceedings with Nikon over alleged patent infringement – the result being a signed Memorandum of Understanding between ASML Holdings and Nikon with a recorded provision in its 2018 accounts. The negative impact to ASML was a blow of €131million on gross margin in 2018, further explaining the dip in share price towards the end of the financial year, however, ASML has proceeded to perform well since the legal settlement and the warehouse incident, proving that they are a stable and organised investment opportunity. Industries such as automotive innovation; military contracts; and the widely talked-about next era of data streaming (namely 5G) has encouraged innovation as far as technologically viable.
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