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ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ: ASML) Recommendation: Long I Current stock price: $651 I 5-year target price: $245 / $1,039 / $1,371 (Bear / Base / Bull) All financial and valuation information is presented in Euro Shradha Mani I sm4843 I [email protected] I April 22, 2021 ASML is a market leader (almost a monopoly) in lithography equipment, an advanced, precision technology which is essential to the manufacture of semiconductor chips. In turn, semiconductors power our phones, computers, automobiles and are basically the foundation of technology as we know it today. Thus, the semiconductor industry (customers of ASML) is poised for strong secular growth. “We provide our customers with everything they need – hardware, software and services – to mass produce patterns on silicon, allowing them to increase the value and lower the cost of a chip.” ASML’s essential position in the semiconductor ecosystem, and its product lines are described below1: . Lithography systems that print the tiny features that form the basis of a microchip with precision. These systems can be new or refurbished. o Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography Systems o Deep Ultraviolet Lithography Systems . Metrology and Inspection Systems measure the quality of patterns on chips and help locate and analyze chip defects . Computational Lithography algorithms optimize the manufacturing process to minimize defects . Customer Support and Service What does ASML do i.e. how does it earn revenue and who are the company’s customers ? Revenue disaggregation 2018 2019 2020 Extreme UV lithography systems in sales (in Euro) 1,880 23% 2,800 31% 4,464 43% Deep UV lithography systems in sales (in Euro) 6,040 73% 5,922 66% 5,502 53% Metrology and inspection systems in sales (in Euro) 339 4% 274 3% 350 3% Net system sales (in Euro) 8,259 8,996 10,316 EUV lithography systems in units 18 5% 26 8% 31 8% DUV lithography systems in units 206 61% 203 59% 227 57% Metrology and inspection systems in units 114 34% 115 33% 137 35% Net system sales in units 338 344 395 Asia (in Euro) 8,349 76% 9,523 81% 11,837 85% EMEA (in Euro) 633 6% 317 3% 485 3% USA (in Euro) 1,962 18% 1,980 17% 1,657 12% Total net sales (in Euro) 10,944 11,820 13,979 Net service and field option sales 2,685 2,824 3,662 ASML earns the bulk of its revenue from the sale of lithography systems (97% of net system sales) to customers located in Asia ASML manufactures lithography systems (extreme and deep (85% of net system sales). ultraviolet lithography machines), metrology and inspection Key customers of ASML include Intel, Samsung, and Taiwan systems, and computational lithography systems. Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Revenue growth projections are, therefore, dependent on growth of end-markets. Key statistics2 Historical financial performance 1 https://www.asml.com/en/products 2 https://www.asml.com/en/investors/financial-calendar/past-events-and-presentations 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A ASML has a market cap of Euro 220B / $262B and revenue in 2020 Total Revenue 6,875.1 8,962.7 10,944.0 11,820.0 13,978.5 Growth Over Prior Year 9.3% 30.4% 22.1% 8.0% 18.3% was ~ Euro 14B / $16.6B. ASML is headquartered in Veldhoven in the Netherlands and was incorporated in 1984. The company has grown Gross Profit 3,145.3 4,020.2 5,029.2 5,279.8 6,797.2 Margin % 45.7% 44.9% 46.0% 44.7% 48.6% revenues at a median rate of ~ 18% over the last 5. The market cap EBITDA 2,112.8 2,853.4 3,384.4 3,156.8 4,450.0 of ASML is larger than that of Siemens AG ($141B), Airbus SE ($79B) Margin % 30.7% 31.8% 30.9% 26.7% 31.8% and BMW AG ($57B) combined. The stock performance of ASML EBIT 1,758.5 2,439.7 2,965.3 2,790.8 4,056.9 over the last 5 years is as follows: Margin % 25.6% 27.2% 27.1% 23.6% 29.0% Earnings from Cont. Ops. 1,557.8 2,066.7 2,591.6 2,592.3 3,553.7 Margin % 22.7% 23.1% 23.7% 21.9% 25.4% Net Income 1,557.8 2,066.7 2,591.6 2,592.3 3,553.7 Margin % 22.7% 23.1% 23.7% 21.9% 25.4% Diluted EPS 3.64 4.79 6.08 6.15 8.48 Growth Over Prior Year (2.7%) 31.6% 26.9% 1.2% 37.9% Return on equity % 15.2% 19.0% 23.1% 21.4% 26.9% Total debt / equity 30.4% 29.7% 27.5% 26.3% 35.0% Total debt / EBITDA 1.59 1.10 0.93 1.05 1.09 EBIT / interest expense 46.3 42.4 70.9 76.3 93.7 PE Ratio 45.2 EV / EBITDA 35.0 Sources of sustainable competitive advantage i.e. investment thesis 1. ASML has a monopoly in an advanced, precision technology that is vital to the accurate and high-volume manufacture of integrated circuits (semiconductor chips). “ASML’s technology is the most difficult to replicate”3. a. There is strengthening of demand for advanced nodes (semiconductor manufacturing processes) across a wide variety of markets such as tele-working and tele-health, smartphones driven by 5G, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, automotive (electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles, connected cars), solid state drives and servers, and industrial - worldwide semiconductor revenue grew 7.3% in 20204 5. However, currently, the world is facing a semiconductor shortage and … ASML manufactures the equipment necessary for the production of semiconductors. This was also a primary factor in ASML’s strong performance in 2020. Semiconductor market growth drivers6 7 are as follows: b. Moore’s Law states that the power of computers will roughly double every two years i.e. technology will continue to get smaller, faster, more reliable, while the relative cost goes down, and this has become a golden rule for the electronics industry since 19758. Two options arise to continue pursuing Moore’s law – using the same number of transistors on a chip at half the cost OR by doubling the number of transistors on a chip at the same cost. For this to be possible, chip manufacturers need EUV lithography systems (which uses lower wavelength light – 13.5nm - compared to traditional DUV lithography systems – 365nm, 248nm and 193nm) since the smaller the wavelength, the smaller the structures that can be printed9. ASML is currently the leading manufacturer of these next generation EUV lithography systems competitors like Carl Zeiss, Canon and Nikon do not have the scale and the resources to catch up. c. No-one else is making these systems because they are complicated10, expensive, and take years to develop11 i.e. barriers to entry. Further, a semiconductor fabrication plant can take 2+ years and billions of dollars to build. However, ASML’s 3 Quote attributed to New Street Research 4 https://www.asml.com/en/investors/financial-results/q4-2020 5 https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2021-01-14-gartner-says-worldwide-semiconductor-revenue-grew-7-percent-in-2020 6 https://www.asm.com/Downloads/2020_Q3_Investor_presentation.pdf 7 https://www.asml.com/en/investors/financial-calendar/investor-days 8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCbcIFAtB0A 9 ASML 2020 10-K 10 https://www.economist.com/business/2020/02/29/how-asml-became-chipmakings-biggest-monopoly How EUV systems work - Inside a cutting-edge EUV machine, molten tin falls through a chamber at 50,000 droplets per second. A pair of lasers zap every drop, creating a plasma that releases light of the desired wavelength. The mirrors guiding this light, made of sandwiched layers of silicon and molybdenum, are ground so precisely that, if scaled to the size of Germany, they would have no bumps bigger than a millimeter. Because EUV light is absorbed by almost anything, including air, the process must take place in a vacuum. 11 https://www.electronicdesign.com/technologies/embedded-revolution/article/21805342/at-asml-orders-pile-up-for-extreme-ultraviolet-lithography breakthrough innovation shows in the financial results - although EUV devices comprised 8% of sales in units (31 of 393 devices sold in 2020), they accounted for more than 40% of sales revenue. 2. Expanded addressable market, driven by EUV adoption a. The wafer fabrication (fab) equipment market is expected to grow ~10% from 2021 to 202212. 85% of semiconductor capital equipment spend goes toward front-end wafer manufacturing where there are four main component categories - deposition, lithography, etch and clean, and process control13. b. ASML estimates demand for EUV systems to reach 10-20 systems/fab for logic chips and 2-10 systems/fab for memory chips based on the number of structural layers of a chip that can be constructed using EUV14. c. ASML has recently received large orders from key customers, implying increasing uptake and acceptance of EUV lithography technology – SK Hynix aims to spend $4.2B on EUV lithography scanners from ASML over the next 5 years15 and Intel intends to increase its use of EUV in a rearchitected, simplified process flow as it looks to expand and manufacture the majority of its products internally as opposed to outsourcing16. TSMC stated that it would spend $100 billion over the next three years to increase production capacity as demand for semiconductors surges. Further, TSMC ($12B) and Intel ($20B) have both pledged billions of dollars to build semiconductor fabs in Arizona17. d. Therefore, an expanding wafer fab equipment market combined with increasing uptake for EUV results in a potential increase of the serviceable addressable market for ASML.
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