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Page 1 AGENDA ITEM NO 10 TITLE AGENDA ITEM NO 10 TITLE: THE REVIEW OF THE EAST OF ENGLAND PLAN: CONSULTATION Committee: Strategic Development Committee Date: 10 November 2009 Author: Planning Policy Team Leader [J218] 1.0 ISSUE 1.1 To discuss a joint Cambridgeshire response to the consultation on the review of the Regional Spatial Strategy (RSS) - by the East of England Regional Assembly (EERA). 2.0 RECOMMENDATION 2.1 That Members: i. Endorse a Joint Cambridgeshire response to the Regional Spatial Strategy Consultation Paper, with additional East Cambridgeshire comments if necessary, covering the following points: That there is scope for sustainable growth in market towns in East Cambridgeshire as part of a balanced strategy subject to the need for essential infrastructure; That the local needs of rural areas for employment, services/ facilities and housing of an appropriate scale are catered for; That the Mereham and Six Mile Bottom proposals are no longer worthy of consideration. ii. That the final wording of the response be delegated to the Executive Director of Development Services in consultation with the Chairman of the Strategic Development Committee. 3.0 BACKGROUND 3.1 The Government have required EERA to explore bigger housing numbers in this region through a formal review of RSS to 2031. EERA must take account of: Indicators of Housing Need especially that of the National Housing and Planning Unit on improving affordability Achieving the most sustainable pattern of development Deliverability within a set timeframe (2011 to 2031) The EERA consultation closes on the 24 November 2009. Agenda Item 10 - page 1 Strat Dev Cttee/101109 - RSS Review.doc 3.2 The Cambridgeshire local authorities are working together through the Joint Cambridgeshire Regional Spatial Strategy Review Panel (CReSSP) to agree a single joint response to the RSS review consultation. The joint response is to be considered for approval and signed off individually by each authority during November 2009 as their formal response to the consultation. A draft response is currently being developed by officers reflecting the overall strategy and spatial vision agreed in June 2009 by the Cambridgeshire authorities (Appendix 1 and 2) and taking on board comments made at the CReSSP meeting on the 2 October 2009 (minutes of this CReSSP meeting are attached as Appendix 3). A verbal update on the emerging joint response will be given at the Committee Meeting and a copy of a draft response will be tabled if available. 3.3 EERA’S SCENARIOS EERA have suggested four scenarios for housing growth in order to get comments on what direction the review of RSS should take. EERA stress that the future is hard to predict and so none of the scenarios should be taken as the right answer. Housing requirements are given for each district although these are intended as only a guide with further work required before writing the preferred version of the RSS review. Scenario 1 - Roll forward of existing RSS Strategy This scenario is based on the view of local authorities in the region. Scenario 1 takes most account of practicalities such as the availability of jobs and services but also the effect of the recession. For Cambridgeshire the housing requirement is 3600 dwellings a year to 2031. For East Cambridgeshire this would mean a requirement of 390 dwellings a year or around a further 2300 dwellings. The levels of growth for the City and South Cambs have been given a ceiling slightly below RSS rates. Taking this and constraints such as Marshalls Airport into account it is considered that 3000 dwellings pa is more realistic and that the rest (around 12000 dwellings) would have to be made up from the most sustainable market towns in East Cambridgeshire, Hunts and Fenland. Expansion of the Market towns would have to be accompanied by better infrastructure and economic investment. The Ely Transport Study has demonstrated that Ely cannot grow significantly above existing planned levels without a Southern Link Road to resolve the current problems on the A142. Scenario 2 National housing advice and regional new settlements This scenario is one of those required to test advice given to Government by the National Housing and Planning Advice Unit (NHPAU). NHPAU suggest that growth in the range of 30,000 to 40,000 new homes a year would be needed in the region to stabilise long-term rises in house prices. For Cambridgeshire, this would mean 4,560 dwellings a year. Under scenario 2, nearly all of the increase would be met in Huntingdonshire. This follows the Regional Scale Settlement Study’s recommendations of a new settlement at Alconbury. Agenda Item 10 - page 2 Strat Dev Cttee/101109 - RSS Review.doc The analysis of impacts highlights that this scenario could draw resources from existing towns, particularly during the early development of the new settlement. It is also acknowledged that this scenario would have impacts on local landscapes. For this scenario the housing requirement for East Cambridgeshire remains 390 dwellings. Scenario 3 National housing advice and regional economic forecasts This scenario is also required by NHPAU advice but is based on economic potential to create more jobs. Extra housing growth is distributed to areas where there is forecast to be demand for additional workers. For Cambridgeshire this would produce a level of growth identical to scenario 2 (see above). However scenario 3 would lead to increased provision in Cambridge City, East Cambridgeshire and Huntingdonshire rather than Alconbury. For East Cambridgeshire this scenario would mean a considerable increase from the existing RSS rate to 620 dwellings pa. It is not clear from when this increase would kick in, but assuming 2011, it would mean that our district would have to find around another 6500 dwellings. The difficulty with this scenario is that it is theoretical and compares badly with what is happening on the ground. For example the Cambridgeshire Development Study (2009) has more realistic jobs projections based on the current economic climate. This Study and East Cambridgeshire’s own employment predictions show around half the level of jobs suggested by EERA. Moreover jobs require serviced employment land and major investment to bring it forward. Scenario 4 National housing advice and 2006 Household Projection This scenario takes both the scale and distribution of growth from Government projections of new households. The consultation highlights that these projections are significantly influenced by past rates of migration that may not be replicated in the future. The scenario is theoretical taking no account of the practicalities of delivery. For Cambridgeshire this would produce a requirement for 4,350 dwellings a year. Compared to Scenario 1, Cambridge City and South Cambridgeshire would provide less housing, with the majority of growth (some 63%) being provided in East Cambridgeshire, Fenland and Huntingdonshire. For East Cambridgeshire this scenario would nearly double the existing RSS rate to 750 dwellings pa. Assuming the new rate kicks in 2011, it would mean that our district would have to find around another 9000 dwellings. This scenario would increase the risk of new settlement proposals in the district. Agenda Item 10 - page 3 Strat Dev Cttee/101109 - RSS Review.doc 3.4 EERA’S CALL FOR DEVELOPMENT PROPOSALS - MEREHAM/NORTH ELY EERA have produced a Sub-Regional profile for Cambridgeshire that sets out more local information including Developers Proposals. EERA invited developers to submit proposals (by 22 October 2008) for large-scale development to help provide a good range of options to consider. EERA have categorised the developer proposals as those; .With some potential .With serious challenges .No longer worthy of consideration The top category contains just two proposals namely Ely North along with Winteringham (St Neots). The category of those with serious challenges contains nine proposals including Alconbury. Mereham is in the bottom category no longer worthy of consideration. The Assembly accepts the views (of the Cambridgeshire authorities) on the proposals including that Mereham is no longer worthy of consideration. A further proposal was received by EERA outside the call-in period at Six Mile Bottom. The Cambridgeshire authorities (including County) were only made aware of the proposal in October 2009. A joint letter is being sent from the Cambridgeshire authorities asking for clarification on the status of this proposal (see Appendix 4). The Cambridgeshire authorities were not notified in time to inform the EERA consultation and question the status of the proposal given it was submitted so long after the deadline. Unlike the “duly made” proposals, Six Mile Bottom cannot be considered “in the round”. There would be issues of natural justice if EERA gave the same status to the proposal as those that were duly made. Six Mile Bottom itself was rejected at the 2003 Structure Plan Inquiry, rejected again in EERA’s Regional Settlement Study (2009) and should be deemed no longer worthy of consideration. 3.5 MASTER PLANS The Ely Master Plan is out to consultation. The Draft Document was prepared in anticipation of the need to explore greater housing numbers. The Draft Document notes Ely has exceptional rail connections for a town of its size and provides evidence for the RSS review. The Soham Draft Master Plan is in preparation. For Littleport the process of preparation has just started. Agenda Item 10 - page 4 Strat Dev Cttee/101109 - RSS Review.doc 3.6 CAMBRIDGESHIRE’S JOINT RESPONSE TO EERA CONSULTATION As a region EERA stated that there was support for rolling forward the existing RSS rates. The emerging joint Cambridgeshire response broadly takes the same position. The other scenarios are unsustainable and undeliverable within the timeframe. CReSSP Members took the view that the EEDA/EERA assumptions on jobs and homes growth were unrealistic and unsustainable. More realistic targets would help every ones understanding of what we need.
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