Monmouthshire Draft Data Analysis

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Version 2

Supporting document to the Single Integrated Plan 2013-17

Produced by the Local Government Data Unit ~ Wales in conjunction with Monmouthshire Partnership and Engagement Team 10/18/2012

Version 2 Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Document Control

Version Number 2 Description Updated and amended Date 15thMarch 2013 Author & MonmouthshireCounty Council Lead Officer – Contact Details Gary Thomas Tel: 01633 644483 07879111322 Email: [email protected]

Previous consideration

Version Description 1 Draft for challenge & design sessions

Welsh Language and Alternative Formats

We will provide Welsh language versions of any part of this document on request. Copies can also be provided in other formats, including Braille, on request.

Y Gymraeg a fformataueraill

ByddwnyndarparufersiwnCymraeg o unrhyw ran o‟rddogfen are gais. Gellirhefyddarparucopiaumewnfformataueraillargais.

 01633 644010  [email protected]

We can also provide this document in Braille, large print, on tape or in electronic form. If you would like a copy in a different format please contact our Policy Officer (Equalities and Welsh Language) by:

Phone: 01633 644010

Fax: 01633 644666

e mail: [email protected]

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Contents Page

1. Introduction

2. Background

3. General health and well-being profile 3.1. Overview 3.2. General Health 3.3. Birth rate 3.4. Low birth weight babies 3.5. Teenage conceptions 3.6. Immunisation 3.7. Breastfeeding 3.8. Screening 3.9. Oral health 3.10. Learning disabilities 3.11. Physical activity

4. Outcome One: Older people are able to live their good life 4.1. Overview 4.2. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy 4.3. Supporting older people 4.4. Identified needs

5. Outcome Two: People have access to appropriate and affordable housing 5.1. Overview 5.2. Housing market 5.3. Housing stock 5.4. Housing land supply 5.5. Homelessness 5.6. Identified needs

6. Outcome Three: People have good access and mobility. 6.1. Overview 6.2. Rurality 6.3. Transport 6.4. Identified needs

7. Outcome Four: People feel safe. 7.1. Overview 7.2. Crime 7.3. Violence against the person 7.4. Hate crime 7.5. Sexual offences 7.6. Domestic abuse 7.7. Burglary 7.8. Vehicle crime 7.9. Shoplifting and theft 2

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

7.10. Criminal damage 7.11. Anti-social behaviour 7.12. Arson 7.13. Youth offending 7.14. Road safety 7.15. Identified needs

8. Outcome Five: People’s lives are not affected by alcohol and drug misuse 8.1. Overview 8.2. Drug and alcohol misuse 8.3. Identified needs

9. Outcome Six: Vulnerable families are supported 9.1. Overview 9.2. Looked after children 9.3. Safeguarding people 9.4. Child poverty 9.5. Self-harm and other significant events 9.6. Bullying 9.7. Supporting people in crisis 9.8. Identified needs

10. Outcome Seven: Business and enterprise thrives 10.1. Overview 10.2. Economy 10.3. Business 10.4. Technology 10.5. Tourism 10.6. Employment 10.7. Economic inactivity 10.8. Benefit claimants 10.9. Identified needs

11. Outcome Eight: People have access to practical and flexible learning. 11.1. Overview 11.2. Pre-school 11.3. School performance 11.4. Educational attainment 11.5. Impact of poverty on educational attainment 11.6. Absenteeism 11.7. Young people not in education, employment or training. 11.8. Adult education 11.9. Play opportunities for children 11.10. Identified needs

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

12. Outcome Nine: People protect and enhance the environment 12.1. Overview 12.2. Ecological footprint 12.3. Green Spaces and environmental quality 12.4. Lakes and rivers 12.5. Natural beauty 12.6. Wildlife 12.7. Waste and recycling 12.8. Identified needs

13. References

Appendices Annex A - Needs Assessment Triangle Annex B - Comparator Local Authorities. Annex C - Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation 2011. Annex D - Pupil absenteeism by LSOA in Monmouthshire Annex E - Identified Play needs to meet the requirements of National Policy.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

1. Introduction

In Monmouthshire we are trying to do things differently in order to explore the potential to improve the way we currently use partnership data. We see unified needs assessment as a continual process rather than a one off annual report. The first step in this process is to produce a robust data analysis by highlighting exception states, patterns and trends in the Monmouthshire population using a wide range of appropriate and relevant measures.

The data analysis in this report has been used in context with a wide range of key stakeholders and the public to discuss and identify the needs of the population in Monmouthshire. We have done this through a series of county wide “challenge and design” sessions involving all key stakeholders. We intend to triangulate statistical factual evidence with stakeholder opinion and voice, and best practice evidence. We call this the Needs Assessment Triangle (See Annex A). 2. Background

Unification of the needs assessment process is fundamental to the “re-boot” of a modern partnership. It must not be seen as a one-off annual process through the production of a report. We will support our decisions and actions using a robust approach to engagement and further consideration of best practice and research. It is vital to improve the way we measure and evaluate the impact of our interventions. We will work closely with partnership colleagues to ensure we can demonstrate benefit. Therefore, the development of a strong performance management culture will place the emphasis on the evaluation of impact and benefit to the local population.

We will also support doing things differently through creative design. A number of design sessions have been used to consider how we can start to explore doing things differently in partnership. The successful submission of the council‟s application to NESTA will help underpin our intent to deliver innovation, this allied to the councils Intrepreneurship School will create an environment and attitude which will support delivery and the challenge of achieving better outcomes for the people of Monmouthshire.

The strategic needs assessment in this report is the start of the journey, not the end. It should be considered in context to help inform key stakeholders and the public about some of the emerging key themes, outcomes and needs for the people of Monmouthshire. Wherever possible we have tried to consider Monmouthshire against similar Local Authorities in Wales, and areas with a similar profile in England (See Annex B) and use national reports and evidence such as the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation 2011 (WIMD) to provide a positional overview of some of the main issues to be considered (See Annex C).

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

3. General health and well-being profile

3.1 Overview

We want people to live healthy and fulfilled lives. The physical and emotional health and wellbeing of people has a major impact on all aspects of their lives. It affects their ability to secure and maintain employment, and fulfil their roles as family members and parents. In young people, good health and wellbeing allows them to fully engaged with their education and interact with their peers. In our youngest children, their health at birth and in their early years has a lasting impact, either positive or negative, on their development and attainment.

The overall health of a population can have a huge impact on the economic prosperity and quality of life it enjoys. If people‟s lives are affected by ill-health, it can impact on their ability to work and likely to increase the health and social care services they require. In older age being healthy helps people stay independent living in their own homes doing what they want, when they want, in their own way.

3.2 General health

Overall, the health of people in Monmouthshire is good. Using the health domain in the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation 2011, there are no lower super output areas (LSOA) in Monmouthshire in the 10% most deprived LSOAs in Wales for health. Only one LSOA is in the top 30% most deprived and only eight LSOAs (13.8%) are in the 50% most deprived LSOAs in Wales.

The distribution shown in Table 1 indicates that Monmouthshire has the best, or second best, across the comparator authorities in Wales at all four percentages points. Table 1: Distribution of LSOAs by Health domain, WIMD 2011 Local Authority Number 10% Most 20% Most 30% Most 50% Most of LSOAs Deprived Deprived Deprived Deprived Monmouthshire 58 0.0 1.7 1.7 13.8 Ceredigion 47 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.4 Pembrokeshire 71 4.2 7.0 12.7 36.6 Powys 80 2.5 3.8 7.5 17.5 Wales 1896 10.0 20.0 30.0 50.0 Source: National Public Health Service

Poor health in adults can impact on their ability to gain and maintain employment. Being unable to work due to ill health will not only impact on a household‟s economic status, but also on its health and wellbeing. In particular, it can affect the mental health of individuals. The 2011 census indicates that the day to day activities of 3.7% of people aged 16-64 are limited significantly compared with 5.3% in Wales, with 4.6% reporting bad health and 1.4% very bad health.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

3.3 Birth rate

There are a number of indicators which can be used to reflect the birth rate in a local population. The General Fertility Rate (GFR) which is the number of live births per 1000 women between the ages of 15 and 44 years provides a measure of trends in fertility levels. In 2010 there were 61.1 births per 1000 women aged 15-44 compared to 63.3 in Wales. The general trend line has been upwards from the year 2000. Table 2: Fertility rates in Monmouthshire and Wales 1996 – 2010.

General Fertility Rate Total Fertility Rate Year Wales Monmouthshire Wales Monmouthshire 1996 61.1 58.4 1.8 1.7 1997 60.5 57.2 1.8 1.6 1998 58.8 57.2 1.8 1.6 1999 56.5 55.1 1.7 1.6 2000 54.6 56.4 1.7 1.6 2001 53.4 52.1 1.7 1.5 2002 52.6 53.2 1.6 1.8 2003 54.7 59.4 1.7 2.0 2004 56.1 57.8 1.8 2.0 2005 56.7 54.5 1.8 1.9 2006 58.3 57.4 1.9 2.0 2007 59.6 55.6 1.9 2.0 2008 61.8 63.2 2.0 2.3 2009 60.9 55.8 1.9 2.0 2010 63.3 61.1 2.0 2.2 Source: Welsh Government, StatsWales.

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) which is the average number of children a woman would give birth to during her lifetime. Monmouthshire had the 5th highest TFR among the Local Authorities in Wales in 2010 with 2.2 children per woman. The trend is upwards from a TFR of 1.63 in year 2000. There also continues to be an upward trend in the number of live births to mothers aged 40 and over, from 20 in1996 to 49 in 2010.

3.4 Low birth weight babies

Being healthy at birth and in the early years of life has a huge impact on the development and long-term health of a child. Health problems in early life can often have long-term effects on a person‟s life. They can also require expensive and intensive medical interventions to treat chronic disabling conditions.

The best early indicator of a child‟s health is birth weight. Singleton births where the baby weighs less than 2,500 grams are classed as being low birth weight. Such babies are more likely to be born pre-term, and are more susceptible to poor health in their first few years of life and developmental delay. We will consider developmental rates in the section on pre-school. Chart 1 shows the rate of low birth weight babies across Wales. Only Ceredigion at 4.4% has a better rate than Monmouthshire.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Chart 1: Rate of low birth weight babies, by year.

However, when we consider the available evidence at a lower geography using medium super output areas (MSOA) the communities first area of Abergavenny, covering Cantref, Croesonnen, Lansdown, Mardy and Priory has an average of 7.7% low birth weight babies this is significantly higher than the Welsh average and the average for Aneurin Bevan Health Board area (see Map 1 below). This supports the notion that in Monmouthshire it is essential to analyse data at the lowest level possible where statistical techniques support a robust meaningful analysis of the data.

Map 1: Low Birth weight babies by Middle Super Output Areas in Gwent

Source: Public Health Wales Observatory

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Becoming a parent at a young age can sometimes have a negative effect on both the parent(s) and the baby. Whilst some births to young parents do have positive outcomes for both child and parent, the risks of parenthood at an early age are well known. Young parents are more likely to disengage from their education, have lower qualifications than their peers, perform more poorly in the jobs market and have lower incomes during their lives.

The health of both parent and child are also negatively affected. Teenage mothers have a higher rate of post natal depression than older mothers. They are also more likely to have poor health during pregnancy, which can affect the health of the baby. In the next section we will consider teenage conception rates in Monmouthshire.

3.5 Teenage conceptions

Babies born to teenage mothers are more likely to be born pre-full term, more likely to have a low birth weight and more likely to suffer from poor health at birth and in the following months. The number of teenage conceptions to women aged under 16 years are small. In Monmouthshire there were 7 such conceptions in 2010 and 6 in 2009. The teenage conception rate in Monmouthshire in 2007 was 6.8 per 1000 women aged under 16 compared to 8.1 in Wales27.

Conceptions to women aged less than 18 years are far more common and provide a more robust analysis of pattern and trend. In 2010, there were 40 conceptions to women aged 15 to 17 years in Monmouthshire. This was a rate of 22.5 conceptions per 1,000 women compared to 37.7 across Wales. The Monmouthshire rate is the lowest in Wales. Generally, Monmouthshire saw a sharp decrease in the rate of conceptions for this age group in 2008 and 2009, but a slight increase in 2010. Only three other local authority areas in Wales showed an increase in rates in 2010. However, the rate has been the lowest of all local authority areas in Wales for the past two years.

Chart 2: Conception rates to women aged under 18 years, by area

Conception rates to Under 18s 50.0 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 Monmouthshire 25.0 Ceredigion 20.0 Pembrokeshire Powys

Rate 1,000 Rate per 15.0 10.0 Wales 5.0 0.0

Source: Office for National Statistics

Monmouthshire‟s rate is also better than all its English comparator areas and the national rate in England. 9

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

3.6 Immunisation The immunisation of young children against a range of conditions and diseases is the most effective way of minimizing the impact of these conditions across the population. Evidence shows that groups of children and young people who are at particular risk of not being fully immunised include, those who have missed previous vaccinations whether as a result of parental choice or otherwise, looked after children, those with physical or learning disabilities, those from non-English speaking families and younger children from large families28.

In the 12 months up to March 2012, 92% of all 2 year olds in Monmouthshire received their MMR immunisation. The uptake rate has increased steadily since the early 2000s, when rates nationally were at their lowest. Monmouthshire‟s rate is in line with its comparator areas and Wales as a whole, where 21 of the 22 local authority areas have a rate between 90 and 95%.

Chart 3: Percentage of children immunised against MMR by their 2nd birthday, by area.

Percentage of children immunised against MMR by their 2nd birthday 100

Monmouthshire 90

Ceredigion % 85 Pembrokeshire Powys 80 Wales

Source: NHS Immunisation statistics, Welsh Government

Table 3: Gwent immunisations uptake in resident children reaching their 1st and 2nd birthday between 01/04/11 and 31/03/12.

Age 1 Year Age 2 years 5 in 1* MenC MMR1 PCVf*** Hib/MenC Booster Children Children Local Authority (n) % (n) % (n) % (n) % (n) % Blaenau 789 772 97.8 772 97.8 803 753 93.8 762 94.9 763 95.0 Caerphilly 2164 2103 97.2 2101 97.1 2153 1999 92.8 2022 93.9 2032 94.4 Monmouthshire 848 804 94.8 803 94.7 827 761 92.0 772 93.3 770 93.1 Newport 1977 1881 95.1 1874 94.8 1932 1748 90.5 1756 90.9 1765 91.4 Torfaen 1096 1069 97.5 1065 97.2 1062 1001 94.3 1014 95.5 1014 95.5 Wales 35445 34180 96.4 34050 96.1 35053 32482 92.7 32784 93.5 32860 93.7 Source: Public health Wales, COVER annual report 2012

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Annual uptake of the completed course of „5 in 1‟ vaccine, scheduled at 2, 3 and 4 months of age, in children reaching their first birthday increased to 96.4% in Wales, and by Local Authority area from the lowest rate of 94.8% in Monmouthshire, to a high of 98.1% in Anglesey. Monmouthshire also has a low uptake rate for the group C meningococcus vaccine at this age with third lowest uptake rate in Wales of 94.7%, compared to 96.4% in Wales (See Table 3)

Uptake of all three doses of HPV vaccine, routinely scheduled in school Year 8, in girls in the 2010/11 school Year 8 (reaching their 13th birthday between 01/09/10 and 31/08/11) was 85.5%, ranging from the lowest rate of 75.1% in Monmouthshire to a high of 91.3% in Neath Port Talbot.

Table 4: Gwent immunisations uptake in resident children reaching their 5th and 16th birthday between 01/04/11 and 31/03/12.

Age 5 years Age 16 years MMR2 4 in 1 MMR1 MMR2 3 in 1 Booster** Children Children Local Authority (n) % (n) % (n) % (n) % (n) % Blaenau 734 653 89.0 665 90.6 821 768 93.5 710 86.5 432 52.6 Caerphilly 2087 1837 88.0 1881 90.1 2059 1856 90.1 1668 81.0 1060 51.5 Monmouthshire 909 794 87.3 812 89.3 1104 890 80.6 770 69.7 662 60.0 Newport 1732 1464 84.5 1522 87.9 1952 1714 87.8 1519 77.8 981 50.3 Torfaen 1061 935 88.1 951 89.6 1190 1101 92.5 1023 86.0 567 47.6 Wales 33645 29306 87.1 30160 89.6 35246 32329 91.7 29386 83.4 25072 71.1 Source: Public Health Wales, COVER annual report 2012

At 15 years of age, the annual coverage of two doses of MMR was 81.6% ranging from 69.3% in Monmouthshire to 89.7% in Conwy. Coverage of one dose of MMR in 15 year olds was 90.7%, ranging from 81.5% in Monmouthshire to 95.6% in Conwy.

At 16 years of age annual coverage of two doses of MMR was 83.4% (See Tables 4), ranging from the lowest rate of 69.7% in Monmouthshire to 91.8% in Wrexham. Annual coverage of one dose of MMR in 16 year olds was 91.7%, ranging from the lowest rate of 80.6% in Monmouthshire to 96.9% in Flintshire.

In 2011/12, the rate of influenza uptake in Monmouthshire was 75.5% of all residents aged 65 years and over. This rate has increased gradually over the past four years and has consistently been better than the rate in the comparator areas and the Wales average

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Chart 4: Influenza immunisation uptake in people aged 65 years or over

Influenza immunisation uptake in people aged 65 years and over 80

50 Monmouthshire

40 Ceredigion % 30 Pembrokeshire

20 Powys Wales 10

Source: Public Health Wales (NB: Data for 2009/10 not found at a local authority level)

3.7 Breast feeding

Breastfeeding is considered to be crucial to the healthy development of babies, both in their early months of life and on a long-term basis. Of those mothers that stated a choice, 58% of new born babies in Monmouthshire in 2010 were breastfed, compared with 55% in Wales. Overall, since 2004 the rate in Monmouthshire on average has been 61%.

Table 5: Mothers who Breastfeed in Monmouthshire 2004-2010. Not Breastfeeding Year Total Breastfeeding breastfeeding not stated % 2004 877 431 301 145 59% 2005 791 360 254 177 59% 2006 823 379 269 175 58% 2007 818 381 164 273 70% 2008 924 408 236 280 63% 2009 806 361 244 201 60% 2010 869 386 262 221 60% 2011 793 335 247 211 58% All 6701 3041 1977 5018 61% Source: Welsh Government, StatsWales, National Community Child Health Database (NCCHD);

This rate has been declining steadily since 2007 and is below the comparator areas of Ceredigion and Powys, although it remains above the national average (See Chart 5)

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Chart 5: Percentage of births where mother breastfeed, by area.

Percentage of live births where mother breastfeed 90

60 Monmouthshire 50

Ceredigion % 40 Pembrokeshire 30 Powys 20 Wales

Source: Welsh Government, StatsWales, National Community Child Health Database (NCCHD);

3.8 Screening

Breast screening is on a three year round and so a one year period will show some variation as only a proportion of women may be invited from a defined geographical area. Therefore, where the numbers invited are very small the percentage is unrepresentative. In 2010/11, uptake of women aged 50 to 70 years old who are invited and attend breast screening in Monmouthshire was 79%, and equal highest in Wales15. The prevalence rate for female breast cancer in women aged 65 and over (number of cases) in 2010 was 30615.

Bowel screening uptake is defined as those eligible participants who returned a test kit within 24 weeks that had a negative and positive result. In 2010/11, uptake in Monmouthshire was 56% and the highest rate in Wales15.

Cervical screening coverage is defined as those eligible participants that have had an adequate test result in the last 5 years. Of the 8,121, eligible women invited for a test during 2010/11, 82% (6620) tested. This is the highest rate in Wales.

3.9 Oral Health Good oral health was defined by the Department of Health in 1994 as the standard of health of the oral and related tissues which enables an individual to eat, speak and socialise without active disease, discomfort or embarrassment and which contributes to general well-being29. There are 46 General Dental Practitioners in Monmouthshire.

Oral disease has detrimental effects on an individual„s physical and psychological well- being and reduces quality of life. A range of conditions are classified as oral diseases. The main oral disease of childhood is dental caries or tooth decay. Among adults other important conditions are periodontal (gum) disease and oral cancers.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

In this section we will concentrate on tooth decay in children. The availability of current timely data remains an issue in Wales, with the main dental epidemiology provided from the 5 year old and 12 year old dental health surveys in school. The most recent survey for 5 year olds was 2007/8 and for 12 year olds 2008/09.

Table 6 : Dental health for children aged 5 and 12 year old in Monmouthshire Survey period 2003/04 2005/06 2007/08 Average DMFT>0 score for 5 year old children. 4.02 4.29 3.69 DMFT score for 5 year old children. 1.18 1.88 1.3 % DMFT>0 score for 5 year old children. 44.94 43.7 35.4 Survey period 2004/05 2008/09 2012/13

Average DMFT>0 score for 12 year old children. 1.94 2.45 Not Available DMFT score for 12 year old children. 0.83 1.07 Not Available % DMFT>0 score for 12 year old children. 45.33 43.7 Not Available Source: Public Health Wales, Aneurin Bevan Health Board, Oral Health report March 2012

Average decayed, missing and filled teeth (dmft) for Monmouthshire has been well below the Welsh average in the last three surveys. In Gwent the average dmft for all children aged 5, surveyed in 2007-8 was 2.38 compared to 1.3 in Monmouthshire and 1.98 in Wales. The average dmft for those with experience of caries was 4.35 compared to 3.69 in Monmouthshire and 4.16 in Wales (see Chart 6). Over half (54.8%) of five year olds living in Gwent have at least one decayed, missing (due to caries) or filled tooth; this is significantly higher than the figure for Wales, 47.6% and the 35.4% in Monmouthshire29.

Chart 6: Dental health of 5 year old children in Gwent

6 5.15 5 4.34 4.33 4.06 4 3.69 3.25 3 2.63 2.4 2.29 2 1.3 1

0 Blaenau Gwent Caerphilly Monmouthshire Newport Torfaen Mean dmft Mean dmft for those with dmft experience

Source: Welsh Oral Health Information Unit, Survey 2007-08

Chart 7 shows children aged 12 in Gwent who have caries experience in their permanent teeth (%dmft>0). In Gwent the percentage of children aged 12 who have caries in their permanent teeth in 2007-8 was 50.4%, compared to 43.7% in Monmouthshire and 42.5% in Wales

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Chart 7: % of 12 year old children in Gwent who have caries experience in their permanent teeth (%dmft>0).

70 58.8 60 52.3 51.9 50 46.5 43.7 40

0 Blaenau Gwent Caerphilly Monmouthshire Newport Torfaen

% who have caries experience in their permanent teeth (dmft>0)

Source: Welsh Oral Health Information Unit, Survey 2008-09

3.10 Learning disabilities It is difficult to estimate the real extent and size of the population for people who suffer some form of learning disability or difficulty. Daffodil is a web-based system developed by the Institute of Public Care (IPC) for Welsh Government. The system pulls together in one place population estimates to support the planning of care services required in your local area in the future. Information from research and population projections shows potential need for care over the next 20 years for children, adults and older people. In 2012, Daffodil estimates suggest that Monmouthshire has approximately 753 children and young people aged 0-17 who have a learning difficulty, and that these will decline slightly to 727 by 2030. For adults aged 18 and over with a learning disability, Daffodil estimate that Monmouthshire had 1643 people with a learning disability, and suggest that this will rise to 1745 by the year 2030. Table 7: Projected estimated numbers of children and young people predicted to have a mild, moderate or severe learning disability in Monmouthshire to 2030.

Severity 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030

Moderate learning difficulty 648 631 634 631 626

Severe learning difficulty 84 82 82 82 81

Profound learning difficulty 21 20 20 20 20

Source: Daffodil. Note; Prediction rates have been applied to population projections in the years 2011 and 2021 and linear trends projected to give estimated numbers predicted to have a mild, moderate or severe learning disability, to 2030.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Table 8: Projected estimated numbers of adults predicted to have learning disability in Monmouthshire to 2030. Age Group 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 People aged 18-24 168 166 138 134 134 People aged 25-34 186 200 223 216 193 People aged 35-44 263 236 221 241 265 People aged 45-54 326 337 303 253 239 People aged 55-64 290 285 314 332 299 People aged 65-74 230 255 269 261 286 People aged 75-84 129 139 167 204 215

People aged 85 and over 51 57 70 88 114

Population aged 18+ 1,643 1,674 1,703 1,729 1,745 Source: Daffodil On average Monmouthshire Social Services children‟s with disabilities team work with about 175 children and young people and the community learning disabilities team work with about 300 adults.

3.11 Physical activity

Physical activity is a key ingredient to a healthy life for all people. Regular exercise can lower our risk of getting serious conditions, such as stroke, heart disease and certain cancers. It can add years to our lives, but more importantly it keeps us happy and helps us maintain independence in older life. Providing young people with the opportunity to engage in physical activity at a young age will benefit their health and can ensure such behaviour becomes habitual throughout their adult lives.

Encouraging older people to exercise benefits both body and mind. UK-wide physical activity guidelines30 recommend the following minimum levels of activity for each age group:

 Under-fives: 180 minutes each day, once a child is able to walk.

 Children and young people (5-18 year olds): at least 60 minutes and up to several hours every day of moderate to vigorous intensity physical activity. Three days a week should include vigorous intensity activities that strengthen muscle and bone.

 Adults (19-64 years old) and older people (65+): 150minutes each week of moderate to vigorous intensity physical activity (and adults should aim to do some physical activity every day). Muscle strengthening activity should also be included twice a week.

There are many different exercise forms and activities which provide these benefits, many which do not require payment. The most obvious free local resource is our countryside. Swimming is one of the most common forms of exercise for children. 16

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

During 2011/12 there were 26,724 swims in Monmouthshire (See Table 9). Welsh Government funds free swimming for all children under 16 years old at weekends and during school holidays, with the aim of increasing participation in physical activity and improving the health of young people. It is provided as a combination of free swimming and structured activities.

Table 9: Number of Free and Paid swims for children and young people under 16 years old by Leisure Centre 2011/12. Leisure Centre Number of Swims Abergavenny 8005 Caldicot 6144 Chepstow 8535 Monmouth 4040 All Leisure Centres 26724 Source: Monmouthshire County Council, Regeneration and Culture

Changes to the scheme in July 2010 mean that comparable trend data is not available. In 2011/12, the four public swimming pools in Monmouthshire provided 9,892 sessions of free swimming and structured activities to children aged 16 years and younger. Using the mid-year population estimates for 2011, this equates to 0.61 visits per person aged 16 years or under in Monmouthshire in 2011/12.

Table 10: Number & rate of participants for free swimming aged 16 years or younger Local Authority No. free No. Total Rate per head swimming structured sessions of population sessions sessions Monmouthshire 7,353 2,539 9,892 0.61 Ceredigion 11,213 3,105 14,318 1.28 Pembrokeshire 23,094 10,165 33,259 1.51 Powys 16,908 488 17,396 0.76 Wales 400,529 84,842 485,371 0.87

Source: Free swimming data, Data Unit Wales

There is a gap in robust data which looks at the general health of children and young people. Whilst the Welsh Health Survey contains self-reported information on the health and wellbeing of adults, similar data for children and young people is not replicated.

And when data on the physical activity of children and young people is collected by Sports Wales as part of their participation survey, it is only published at a regional level. The Welsh Health Survey shows the percentage of adults in each local authority area who regularly engage in physical activity on least five days a week, including their work. The combined results from 2009 and 2010 show that 34% of adult aged 16 years and above reached this level in Monmouthshire. Although this is below two of the comparator areas, it was higher than any other local authority area in Wales and is well above the national rate. It has also been increasing for the past two years.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Chart 8: Adults engaging in regular physical activity by area.

Adults engaging in regular physical activity 45 40 35 Monmouthshire 30 Ceredigion 25 Pembrokeshire

% 20 Powys Wales 15 10 5 0

Source: Welsh Health Survey

Monmouthshire has the highest healthy life expectancy for both males and females across Local Authorities in Wales. Research shows that increasing the amount of physical activity can help people to make significant improvements to their health and well-being. The Welsh Government funds free swimming for people over the age of 60 in Monmouthshire. Table 11: Number of free swims for people over 60 by Leisure Centre 2011/12. Number of Leisure Centre Swims Abergavenny 8211 Caldicot 5655 Chepstow 6273 Monmouth 4060 All Leisure Centres 24199 Source: Monmouthshire County Council, Regeneration and Culture

GPs and health professionals can refer appropriate patients to a controlled exercise program to improve health and well-being. During 2011-12 there were 1,011 referrals to the scheme in Monmouthshire, and the percentage of people on the GP exercise referral scheme still active after 12 months has increased from 26% in 2010-11 to 32% in 2011-12. Table 12: GP Exercise scheme in Monmouthshire. Scheme Outputs 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 Number of referrals received 795 858 1,011

Number of 1st consultations 664 683 816

Number of people who complete the 40 226 327 scheme at 12 months Source: Monmouthshire County Council, Regeneration and Culture 18

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

4. Outcome One: Older people are able to live their good life.

4.1 Overview

We want older people to live healthy and fulfilled lives. The physical and emotional health and wellbeing of people has a major impact on life as people get older. Whilst most developed world countries have accepted the chronological age of 65 years as a definition of 'elderly' or older person, as do some commonly used definitions of old age, there is no general agreement on the age at which a person becomes old.

Growing older affects people in many different ways. Our ability to secure and maintain employment, fulfil our role as a family member and parent, enjoy interests and hobbies, and continue with daily functions such as cooking and getting dressed in the morning all become more difficult. There is no doubt that people in Monmouthshire are living longer, our section on life expectancy confirms this. We‟re living longer, because people are reaching old age in better health. What will these dramatically longer lifespans mean for social services, health care and the economy is yet to be fully understood. Living longer, living better more fulfilled lives will bring a set of new challenges with people doing a lot more in later life. For some this will mean improved health and well-being with onset of diseases and problems well into theirs 80s.

4.2 Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy Life expectancy in Monmouthshire is increasing for both males and females, as is the trend across Wales. However, this improvement is not experienced equally across all areas. There are areas of local inequality between the most and least deprived areas with significant differences in both life expectancy and deaths related causes. There are also inequalities in the quality of life in terms of healthy life expectancy and disability- free life expectancy. Charts 9 and 10 show that Monmouthshire has the second highest life expectancy for both males and females across Wales.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Chart 9: Life expectancy at birth, by ranked Local Authorities, males, 2005-09

Life expectancy 95% confidence interval Wales Wales = 77 Merthyr Tydfil 75.0 Blaenau Gwent 75.4 Rhondda Cynon Taf 75.5 Caerphilly 76.1 Bridgend 76.2 Neath Port Talbot 76.3 Swansea 76.7 Carmarthenshire 76.7 Isle of Anglesey 76.8 Newport 76.8 Pembrokeshire 76.9 Cardiff 76.9 Conwy 77.0 Gwynedd 77.1 Torfaen 77.2 Wrexham 77.3 Denbighshire 77.5 Flintshire 77.7 The Vale of Glamorgan 78.1 Powys 79.1 Monmouthshire 79.2 Ceredigion 80.0 x-axis truncated Source: Public Health45 Wales50 Observatory55 60 65 70 75 80 85

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Chart 10: Life expectancy at birth, by ranked Local Authorities, females, 2005-09

Life expectancy 95% confidence interval Wales Wales = 81.4 Blaenau Gwent 79.0 Merthyr Tydfil 79.6 Rhondda Cynon Taf 80.1 Neath Port Talbot 80.6 Caerphilly 80.8 Bridgend 80.8 Wrexham 81.0 Denbighshire 81.0 Torfaen 81.3 Conwy 81.3 Carmarthenshire 81.3 Swansea 81.3 Newport 81.4 Flintshire 81.6 Cardiff 81.7 Pembrokeshire 81.9 Isle of Anglesey 82.0 Gwynedd 82.0 The Vale of Glamorgan 82.1 Powys 82.7 Monmouthshire 83.6 Ceredigion 83.9

x-axis truncated 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

Source: Public Health Wales Observatory Experimental data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released in 2003 looked at average life expectancy by ward, the lowest geographical level at which such data has been published. Combining four years of data, the data showed that life expectancy within Monmouthshire varied by 11.9 years depending on which ward a person lived in. Life expectancy in the Elms was 84.6 years compared to 72.7 years in Lansdown which is one of our most deprived wards in the county (See Table 13 below)

When ranked against every ward in Wales, the inequality in life expectancy within Monmouthshire is clearer. Nine of the 40 wards are in the first quintile in Wales for life expectancy, which is the 20% of wards with the highest life expectancy in Wales. Wards in Monmouthshire are disproportionately concentrated towards the least deprived end of the national scale, with just 4 Wards (10% of all Wards in the county) in the most deprived quintile for Wales. Although this data was published six years ago, it provides detail at a ward level on one of the more important determinants of health inequality.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Table 13: Life Expectancy at birth, by Wards in Monmouthshire, 1999-2003 Life expectancy at Life expectancy Ward birth (years) quintile The Elms 84.6 1 Usk 83.1 1 Mitchel Troy 83 1 Llanbadoc 82.9 1 GoetreFawr 82 1 Mill 82 1 Wyesham 81.9 1 Raglan 81.5 1 Drybridge 81.2 1 LlangybiFawr 80.9 2 Shirenewton 80.9 2 Dixton with Osbaston 80.8 2 CaldicotCastle 80.6 2 LlanfoistFawr 80.5 2 Severn 80.4 2 Caerwent 80.1 2 Trellech United 80 2 St. Arvans 79.9 2 Portskewett 79.6 3 Larkfield 79.5 3 Llanover 79.5 3 Llanwenarth Ultra 79.5 3 Priory 79.2 3 LlantilioCrossenny 78.9 3 Llanelly Hill 78.7 3 Croesonen 78.5 3 Overmonnow 78.4 3 Rogiet 78.1 4 St. Christopher's 78.1 4 St. Mary's 78 4 Thornwell 77.8 4 Crucorney 77.7 4 St. Kingsmark 77.7 4 Grofield 77.1 4 Mardy 77 4 Cantref 76.9 4 West End 76.5 5 Dewstow 76.1 5 Devauden 75.9 5 Lansdown 72.7 5 Source: Public Health Wales Observatory

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

. Table 14: Life expectancy by wards in Monmouthshire, by quintile, 1999-2003 data. Quintile First Second Third Fourth Fifth Total Number of Wards 9 9 9 9 4 40 Percentage of Wards 22.5% 22.5% 22.5% 22.5% 10% 100% Range of life 84.6 to 80.9 to 79.6 to 78.1 to 76.5 to 84.6 to expectancy in years 81.2 79.9 78.4 76.9 72.7 72.7 Source: Public Health Wales Observatory Healthy life expectancy is a measure of the number of years a person can expect to live in good, or very good health. This data can be used as a proxy for the overall health of a population, and, when combined with life expectancy, can be used to quantify how many years of „poor‟ health a person is likely to have at the end of their life. This figure is significant for Monmouthshire especially with the expected growth in the over 85 population. The figure provides an indication of the level of services that might be required to support people in old age. Both males and females have the second highest life expectancy in Wales, only falling behind Ceredigion. Tables 15 and 16 show that Monmouthshire has the highest healthy life expectancy for both males and females across comparator Local Authorities in Wales. In fact Monmouthshire, has the highest healthy life expectancy figure for both males and females across Wales. Table 15: Comparison of healthy life expectancy and life expectancy at birth, 2005-09 for Males Healthy Life Life Area Expectancy Expectancy Difference Monmouthshire 68.2 79.2 11.0 Ceredigion 67.6 80.0 12.4 Pembrokeshire 64.7 76.9 12.2 Powys 67.7 79.1 11.4 Wales 63.5 77.0 13.5 Source: Public Health Wales Observatory Table 16: Comparison of healthy life expectancy and life expectancy at birth, 2005-09 for Females Healthy Life Life Area Expectancy Expectancy Difference Monmouthshire 69.7 83.6 13.9 Ceredigion 69.3 83.9 14.6 Pembrokeshire 67.2 81.9 14.7 Powys 67.5 82.7 15.2 Wales 65.3 81.4 16.1 Source: Public Health Wales Observatory

When combining the two figures to give an indication of the number of years of „unhealthy‟ life, men and women fair well against the comparator areas and the Wales rate. At only 11 years, males in Monmouthshire have the third smallest difference between healthy life expectancy and life expectancy in Wales. For women, their 13.9 years is the sixth smallest difference in Wales.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

4.3 Supporting older people

In Monmouthshire we have approximately 19,863 people over the age of 65 this is accounts for 22.3% of the total population. Projections using 2008-based figures show that, while the overall population of Monmouthshire is projected to increase by 5.4%, the number of people aged 65 years and over is projected to increase by 56.9% from 19,863 in 2012 to 31,157 in 2033. However, the increase is most notable and more significant in the over 85 age group where we can expect a projected increase of 153% from 2,714 people in 2012 to 6,863 in 2033.

Chart 11: Population Projections for Monmouthshire 85+ age group Population Projections for Monmouthshire 8000 85+ age group

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000 Population 2000

1000

2011 2012 2023 2008 2009 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033

Year

Source: Statistical Directorate, Welsh Assembly Government This increase is likely to have a significant impact on the demand for services and support for elderly people and result in an increase in conditions prevalent in older age. Although, people are living longer with more healthy life expectancy, we can expect a greater demand on services delivered to older people, if we do nothing, for example, the estimated number of people suffering from dementia in Monmouthshire is expected to exceed 2500 by 2030, an increase of 82%16 with 1 in 3 people over the age of 85 expected to be affected by some form of dementia.

Monmouthshire can expect a significant increase in the current patterns of morbidity for chronic diseases as people live longer. The Welsh Health Survey for 2008-210 predicts approximately 28% of people aged 65 and over are being treated for a heart condition, 23% for arthritis and 8% with a mental health problem15.The number of Monmouthshire people aged 18 and over predicted to have a limiting long-term illness is expected to increase by 22% from 22,344 in 2012, to 27,298 in 203016. Isolation is another issue to consider in older age, the 2011 census reported that 14.4% of households were occupied by a single person aged 65 and over and 11.3% of households with 2 or more people aged 65 and over17 Faced with these pressures the traditional model of delivering health and social care is no longer sustainable. It will be essential to consider new ways of delivering support and

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment services to meet the demand. Central to this approach is our aim to achieve a more independent population. The majority of older people now have short term intensive involvement from our reablement teams when they first need services, for example after a fall or hospital stay, rather than immediately being provided with a long term service. Before the introduction of the reablement teams in 2008, the number of older people helped to live at home through long term services within Monmouthshire was increasing. The introduction of this service and latterly the new frailty service has seen numbers stabilise (See Chart 12a) and the anticipated increase flat line. Chart 12a: Number of older people 65+ helped to live at home in Monmouthshire

1500

1400

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1000 A J A O D F A J A O D F A J A O D F A J A O D F A J A O D F A J A O D F A J 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Source: Monmouthshire Adult Social Services, 2011-12 While the rate of older people in residential or nursing care in Monmouthshire is consistently the lowest in Wales, over recent years we have seen the number of older people in such services stabilise (See Chart 12b).The decrease shown prior to the end of 2008/09 was largely a consequence of a number of people‟s funding moving from the local authority to Continuing Health Care (CHC) within the NHS following changes to policy. The subsequent rise during 2010/11 was partly as a result of some CHC cases being rejected as financial pressures became more significant.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Chart 12b: Number of older people 65+ in residential and nursing home care in Monmouthshire

350

300

250

200

150 A J A O D F A J A O D F A J A O D F A J A O D F A J A O D F A J A O D F A J 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

Source: Monmouthshire Adult Social Services 2011-12 In part due to pressures caused by the numbers of people using residential services, during 2010/11 we also saw a rise in the number of delayed transfers of care for social care reasons. This means people experiencing unnecessary extended hospital stays while arrangements are made for them be discharged. Our performance last year was 21 delays in the year, down considerably from 40 in 2010/11. Chart 13: Delayed transfers of care for Monmouthshire residents

SCA/001: Delayed Transfers of Care 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

Source: Aneurin Bevan Health Board

Carers are the largest providers of care and support in Monmouthshire. A carer is someone of any age who provides unpaid support to family or friends who could not manage without this help due to illness, disability, mental ill-health or a substance misuse problem. It is in everyone‟s interest that they are supported. In order to care safely and in good health, carers need information, support, respect and recognition. The 2011 census suggested there were about 11,491 people providing unpaid care in Monmouthshire.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

4.3 Identified needs

The process for the identification of local needs starts by using the available data to analyse and highlight states, trends, and patterns of greatest concern in the local population. The data analysis identified a number of key issues which were then presented to our key stakeholders and members of the public at four challenge sessions throughout the county. Their views and opinions helped inform the identified needs below, with a strong emphasis on meeting the needs of older people, which included improving their quality of life.

For older people to live their good life we need to:  Enable older people to be fully independent, maintaining good mobility, health and well-being, confidence and dignity and plan for their futures.

 Explore opportunities to work with our highly skilled older population.

 Nurture good support networks in the community.

 Enable older people to do what matters to them when they choose to.

 Enable older people to stay out of hospital where appropriate.

 Provide suitable support for carers.

 Focus on preventative health and well-being programmes for older people.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

5. Outcome Two: People have access to appropriate and affordable housing.

5.1 Overview

We want people to live in homes that are affordable, appropriate and provide choice on where people can live. A home is a vital part of a person‟s life, affecting their health and well-being, quality of life, and opportunities and activities available to them. Housing is the bedrock of all communities, driving the demand for local services, shops and facilities. People‟s homes are the focus for the delivery of both services and support.

5.2 Housing market The housing market remains fairly stable with a slight decrease in the average number of property transactions per month from 87 during 2011 to 86 2010. The affordability of housing remains expensive when compared to the rest of Wales. The average house price in Monmouthshire is £242,000 (based on sales and valuations) compared to an all Wales average of £161,000. The number of bedrooms is a key determinant of price, current average price in Monmouthshire by bedroom count and property type are as follows:

Table 17: Average value of residential properties by type in Monmouthshire 2012.

Property Type (Bedroom Count) Average Property Price (£)

1 bedroom flat £83,800 2 bedroom flat £167,800 2 bedroom house £169,900 3 bedroom house £187,600 4 bedroom house £289,100 Source: Hometrack, May – Oct 2012 The average price of a new build house in Monmouthshire as at October 2012 was £273,900 compared to £185,500 in Wales.

5.3 Housing stock The 2011 Census shows that Monmouthshire has 40,078 households, of which 1,845 are vacant17. The most common dwelling type is detached housing which accounts of 44% of all households. The tenure of our households is 39.9% owned outright, 33.7% mortgaged, 24.7% rented and 0.4% part rented, parted owned. There are 2,057 lone parent households with dependent children. Some of our most vulnerable residents require social housing or supported living. Monmouthshire Housing Association provides approximately 3,492 properties, Melin Homes 787 and Charter Housing 916 to local residents.

The availability of the right type of new affordable housing is essential. The data considered in this section has been provided by Monmouthshire Council from their 28

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment residential land monitoring database. Total housing completions in Monmouthshire during the period 1999 to 2011/12, reflects a fluctuating position from as few as 172 in 2009/10 to 522 dwellings in 2001. Table 8 shows that on average 13% of the dwellings are considered affordable dwellings, although over the past 5 years, the average annual completion rate has fallen to 281 dwellings per year, the proportion of market dwellings considered affordable has risen to 18%.

Table 18: Housing completions 1999-2012 Year Total market Total Total Percentage of dwellings affordable dwellings affordable dwellings dwellings 1999 432 56 488 11% 2000 341 14 355 4% 2001 396 126 522 24% 2002 353 0 353 0% 2003 338 6 344 2% 2004 373 75 448 17% 2005/2006* 238 42 280 15% 2006/2007 163 15 178 8% 2007/2008 220 29 249 12% 2008/2009 236 91 327 28% 2009/2010 158 14 172 8% 2010/2011 267 61 328 19% 2011/2012 253 78 331 24% Total 3768 607 4375 13% 1999-2012 Period 290 47 337 13% average 2008-2012 Five year 227 55 281 18% average Source: Monmouthshire County Council, Regeneration and Culture.* Base date for rates changed in this reporting period from January to April, therefore this period is longer than 1 year (January 2006 - March 2007)

Availability and affordability are key components. The average house price in Monmouthshire as at November 2012 was £172,918. The average house price to average income ratio is 7.1, with the range between 5.02 and 10.69. This is a key indicator of how much people are stretching themselves to get on the housing ladder with the long term UK average around 3.5, and the suggestion that the magic number is four times average earnings equals average house price 20. Nationally in 2012, the age of first-time buyers increased, rising from 29 to 30 while the typical deposit required is 20%, compared with the deposit of around 10% put down in 2007.Generally, there are more young people living with their parents. In the UK, between 1997 and 2011, there was a 20% increase in 20-34 year olds living with parents.

The impact of affordable housing is brought into focus by families who become homeless. In 2011/12, there we 366 presentations who were homeless or threatened with homelessness, of which there were 187 s193 duty. There were 661 referrals to Monmouthshire supporting people team, with the majority for housing support and support with domestic abuse issues.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

5.4 Housing land supply

Planning obligations make an increasingly important contribution to the delivery of affordable housing the price and supply are other factors which impact on the availability. Monmouthshire County Council Joint Housing Land Availability Study for 2012 identifies the housing land supply for the area as at 1st April 2012. It was prepared in accordance with the requirements of Planning Policy Wales, Technical Advice Note 1 (TAN1).

Table 19: Housing Land Supply 01st April 2012 - 2017 - Large Sites 5 Year Land Supply (TAN1) Categories Beyond 5 Years

Proposed Homes under 1 2 2* 3(i) 3(ii) Homes Construction 835 128 155 475 0 77 0 Source: Monmouthshire CC Joint Housing Land Availability Study, 2012

The five year land supply breakdown of categories 1, 2, 2* and under construction will see 640 private and 118 public homes. The overall total 5 year land supply for both large and small sites is projected to be 1262.The small site supply of less than 10 dwellings is based on the completions for the last five years.

Table 20: Small Site Completions for previous 5 years. Year 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 TOTAL Homes 123 90 91 94 106 504 Source: Monmouthshire CC Joint Housing Land Availability Study, 2012

5.5 Homelessness In 2011/12 Monmouthshire received 366 presentations from people who were homeless or threatened with homelessness, of which 216 (96 single applicants) were considered to require a section 193 duty requiring housing. The main reasons for prioritising the needs of these applicants were, 71 with dependent children, 16 pregnant and 37 fleeing domestic violence. The main reasons for loss of home were end of private rented accommodation and fleeing domestic violence. 56 applicants were placed into bed and breakfast whilst under investigation, 6 with dependent children. The average number of days all homeless families with children spent in bed and breakfast accommodation improved from 33.17 in 2010-11 to 15.2 in 2011-12. 27 families were placed in Cinderhill Hostel and 113 applicants remained homeless at home, whilst waiting for a private sector leased property to become available, 87 secured private sector leased property.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Monmouthshire Housing and Regeneration Services prevented homelessness for at least six months for 30.38% of potentially homeless households in 2011-12, this rate has reduced significantly from a rate of 74.8% in 2008-09. Table 21: Percentage of all potentially homeless households for whom homelessness was prevented for at least 6 months Local Authority Percentage Blaenau Gwent 0.00 Wrexham 23.42 Cardiff 30.13 Monmouthshire 30.38 Swansea 35.24 Bridgend 43.20 Newport 55.38 Wales 60.46 Gwynedd 66.35 Vale of Glamorgan 75.46 Powys 77.55 Merthyr Tydfil 79.27 Isle of Anglesey 81.60 Caerphilly 84.05 Pembrokeshire 84.64 Flintshire 85.52 Torfaen 85.71 Conwy 87.00 Rhondda Cynon Taf 87.71 Ceredigion 88.23 Carmarthenshire 94.30 Neath Port Talbot 97.48 Denbighshire 97.69 Source: Welsh Government, StatsWales Chart 14 highlights that between 2006-07 and 2009-10, the rate of homeless households with dependent children as a proportion of all accepted homeless households was higher than the Welsh average in Monmouthshire. Since 2010-11 this level has reduced to slightly below the Welsh average. It was also lower than the rate in Ceredigion during 2011-12 and very slightly lower than Powys but not Pembrokeshire.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Chart 14: Proportion of homeless households which include dependent children by Welsh comparators

Homeless households with dependent children as a proportion of all accepted homeless households

50 Monmouthshire Ceredigion 40 Pembrokeshire Powys 30 Wales

20 % households %

Source: Welsh Government, StatsWales

A household is in fuel poverty if they spend 10% or more of their income on fuel to keep their home warm. People who find it difficult to keep their homes warm usually have low incomes and are often the most vulnerable people in our communities. Modelling worked undertaken by University of Bristol identified two areas of concern in Monmouthshire, the lower super output areas of Grofield and Drybridge 219.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

4.6 Identified needs

For people in Monmouthshire to have affordable and appropriate housing we need to:

 Be clear about the size of the demand and type of housing required.

 Ensure people have suitable and appropriate housing.

 Support people to live independently.

 Ensure people have a choice in where they live.

 Promote initiatives to combat the negative effects of welfare reform and reduce fuel poverty.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

6. Outcome Three: People have good access and mobility.

6.1 Overview

As a rural county it is crucial that our people are able to move around our county safely at their convenience. People should be able to access the services and activities they need, when they need them, being able to travel around the county in an environmentally sustainable manner. 6.2 Rurality

Monmouthshire is a rural county with a population of 91,300 people, and a total land area of 850 km2, with a population density of 107 people per km2and ranked 15th most populated county in Wales. Over 50% of the population live in the main towns of Abergavenny, Monmouth, Usk, Caldicot and Chepstow. Situated on the south east border with England it receives many visitors via the M4 and M48 motorways across the two severn bridge crossings. There are 5198 footpaths covering 2196.5 km to help you explore the countryside of rural Monmouthshire.

Analysis from the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation 2011suggests that access to services in our most isolated rural communities is poor. Of the 58 lower super output areas in Monmouthshire (areas with a minimum population of 1000 and a mean of 1500), 22.4% are in the most deprived 10% in Wales for access to services. Llantilio Crossenny is raked the second worse in Wales (See Annex C).

Although, Monmouthshire‟s natural environment is a big asset, the rural landscape brings with it some challenging issues associated with isolation, mobility, deprivation and access. 42.3% of residents commute to work outside the county, compared to 29.2% across Wales.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Table 22: Monmouthshire Home to Work Commuting Patterns

% People % People People % People People Total number Local People Working working commuting commuting commuting commuting of People Authority working Residents in home out of the out of the into the into the working in the area in home authority authority authority authority authority authority authority

Pembrokeshire 48900 91.2 44600 8.8 4300 10.9 4500 49100

Ceredigion 35300 90.4 31900 9.6 3400 7.5 4900 36700

Gwynedd 52500 89.3 46900 10.7 5600 4.5 13500 60400

Swansea 92600 82.8 76700 17.2 15900 3.9 26200 103000

Cardiff 153000 81.2 124200 18.8 28800 2.7 74200 198400

Powys 59300 77.9 46200 22.1 13100 6.9 7800 53900

Carmarthenshire 75600 77.1 58300 22.9 17300 5.9 11800 70100

Wrexham 62900 73.6 46300 26.4 16600 4.4 13500 59800

Conwy 46100 73.3 33800 26.7 12300 7.6 5100 39000

Denbighshire 41000 72.9 29900 27.1 11100 3.2 13700 43700

Wales 1285500 70.8 909500 29.2 376000 3.6 343300 1252700

Bridgend 58800 69.7 41000 30.3 17800 3.9 14000 55000

Isle of Anglesey 29700 67.0 19900 33.0 9800 6.4 3700 23500

Newport 60100 65.6 39400 34.4 20700 2.4 28600 68000

Merthyr Tydfil 22800 64.0 14600 36.0 8200 2.6 9300 23900

Neath Port 54300 62.4 33900 37.6 20400 3.4 13800 47600 Talbot

Rhondda Cynon 93300 61.5 57400 38.5 35900 4.6 16100 73500 Taf

Torfaen 37500 59.2 22200 40.8 15300 2.8 12500 34600

Monmouthshire 40200 57.7 23200 42.3 17000 2.3 17800 41000

Flintshire 70300 56.3 39600 43.7 30700 3.0 19500 59100

Blaenau Gwent 26500 55.1 14600 44.9 11900 3.4 6100 20700

Caerphilly 69000 53.3 36800 46.7 32200 3.6 14100 50900

Vale of 55800 50.4 28100 49.6 27700 3.2 12600 40700 Glamorgan Source: Annual Population Survey Rural deprivation is hard to measure and there are no studies using local data to support the notion that rural communities in Monmouthshire experience real hardship. As people get older there is a real fear they become geographically isolated unable to access services, and activities which maintain social contact and independence. Currently in Monmouthshire, 14.4% of people aged 65 and over live on their own, compared to 13.7% in Wales.

6.3 Transport As a rural county it is essential to consider how we use transport to access services, employment and training opportunities, social activities and friends and family. The 2004 'Living in Wales' survey included a question about satisfaction with public transport. The geographic pattern was similar with high levels of dissatisfaction in the rural areas of Powys, Ceredigion, Monmouthshire and Carmarthenshire. What we also know is that rural counties rely heavily on the household car. 84.8% of households own a vehicle in Monmouthshire, compared to 77.1% in Wales with 8.7% of households who own 3 cars17. 35

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

The latest available count of vehicles licensed for Monmouthshire is 61,447 of which 49,804 are cars. Table 31 compares Monmouthshire with its Welsh comparators with and indicates that Monmouthshire has the third highest amount of vehicles licensed, whilst having the highest ratio of vehicles and cars per household out of each of the Welsh comparators. The ratio per household for both vehicles overall and for cars is higher than the Welsh average.

Table 23: Number of vehicles licensed, 2011 by Welsh comparators Area Total number of licenced Number per household vehicles All vehicles Car All vehicles Car Monmouthshire 61,447 49,804 1.59 1.29 Ceredigion 48,614 35,650 1.45 1.06 Pembrokeshire 81,692 62,579 1.55 1.19 Powys 98,556 71,086 1.65 1.19 Wales 1,742,365 1,437,547 1.34 1.10 Source: Road vehicles licensed, by taxation class and unitary authority, Department for Transport

The Welsh Government is committed to promoting and encouraging the uptake of cleaner fuels and vehicles in Wales, which should see improved air quality, reduction of noise and reduction of harmful emissions of greenhouse gases. There are a large number of combinations of possible future fuels which can be produced from a range of different energy sources and used in different types of engines. Traffic levels at trunk road border crossing points have generally risen in line with traffic growth across the road network in Wales. The annual average daily vehicle flow is the number of vehicles estimated to pass a given point on the road in a 24 hour period on an average day in the year. In Monmouthshire, the figure for the severn bridge crossing was 20,140 vehicles and the second severn bridge crossing was 66,805 vehicles. There has been a 27% increase vehicles since 2001.

There appears to be an increase in the number of people in Monmouthshire using rail as a form of transport. The latest available data indicates a 5.7% increase in passenger numbers from 713,508 entries and exists in 2008-09 to 753,856 in 2009-1024.

There is a need to consider all forms of transport. Welsh Government Active Travel Bill wants to enable more people to walk and cycle and generally travel by more active methods, enabling people to get out of their cars and travel or exercise in healthier and more sustainable way. Carl Sargeant, Minister for Local Government and Communities said “Getting from where we are now to the Wales I want to see is going to need more than just new cycle paths and footways”.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

6.4 Identified needs

For people to have good access and mobility we need to:

 Ensure rural communities have good access to services.

 Provide better public information on what services and activities are available.

 Improve access to a range of affordable transport opportunities.

 Understand and measure the impact of rural deprivation.

 Engage with rural communities to identify the issues which need to be addressed in order for the rural community to thrive.

 Improve access to job opportunities especially for young people.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

7. Outcome Four: People feel safe.

7.1 Overview

This chapter looks at the statistical evidence around safer communities and people. Community safety may be defined as "an aspect of quality of life in which people, individually and collectively, are protected as far as possible from hazards or threats that result from the criminal or anti-social behaviour of others and are equipped or helped to cope with those they do experience”1.

Community safety has a wider impact than simply the reduction or prevention of crime. It involves working towards social and economic changes that tackle the underlying causes of crime and disorder. Community safety issues are increasingly defined in partnership with local people, ensuring that local priorities for action are appropriate to address the concerns of the communities involved. The data analysis in this report has been developed in partnership with Gwent Police, and forms a fundamental part of the community safety strategic needs assessment as required under the Crime and Disorder Act.

The Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation 2011 (WIMD) includes a community safety domain comprised of indicators on crime, offenders and fire (See Annex C). WIMD 2011 shows that of the 58 lower super output areas (LSOAs) in Monmouthshire, only 2% were in the most deprived 20% small areas in Wales in terms of community safety. This suggests that Monmouthshire remains a fairly safe place to live. Each of Monmouthshire‟s comparator authorities had a higher amount of LSOAs which were in the most deprived 20% of Wales overall. Ceredigion had 6%; Powys had 8% and Pembrokeshire 13%.

1 Home Office

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

7.2 Crime

In 2011/12, the general crime rate in Monmouthshire was relatively low at 46 crimes per 1,000 people compared to 63 crimes per 1,000 people across Wales. Overall, there has been a decrease in reported crime in Monmouthshire in recent years. In 2011-12, recorded crime decreased by 15.6%, this equates to nearly 800 less victims of crime. This is in common with both the regional and UK trend in reported crime. Factors that contribute to the relatively low level of crime in Monmouthshire compared to Gwent and Wales as a whole are very likely to be linked to the rural nature of the county and the relatively low level of deprivation.

Chart 15 shows the overall recorded crime rate in Monmouthshire compared to that of its comparable authorities. It can be seen that apart from in 2008-09 where there was a slight increase in the overall crime rate in Monmouthshire there has been a steady year on year decrease since 2006-07 in overall recorded crime rates similar to that experienced across Wales. Despite this there is some anecdotal evidence to suggest the fear of crime is a cause for concern.

Chart 15: Rate of recorded offences per 1,000 people by year

Rate of total recorded offences per 1,000 people 100 90 Monmouthshire 80 Ceredigion 70 Powys 60 Pembrokeshire 50 Wales 40 30

20 Rate Rate per 1,000 people 10 0

Source: Police Recorded Crime in England and Wales, Home Office

A detailed analysis of crime data for the 12 months to December 2012 shows that the overall crime rate varies across geographical areas within Monmouthshire, from 201.7 crimes per 1,000 residents in St Marys ward to 10.2 crimes per 1,000 residents in The Elms ward. There are six wards with a crime rate above the welsh average, see table 23 below.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Table 24: Six wards in Monmouthshire with crime rates above the Welsh average.

Ward Area Rate per 1000 people St Marys Chepstow 201.71 Priory Abergavenny 170.25 Grofield Abergavenny 149.33 Drybridge Monmouth 80.3 Green Lane Caldicot 74.19 Lansdown Abergavenny 64.33 Source: Gwent Police

Apart from Lansdown ward in Abergavenny, all of the above wards include town centre and night time economy characteristics, and undoubtedly this will contribute to the higher levels of crime in these areas. In Lansdown ward the highest levels of criminal activity have been linked to vehicle crime with damage to and theft from vehicles, and other theft related offences.

Chart 16: MSG comparison for Crimes in Monmouthshire December 2010– November 2011.

Source: iQuanta Note: Most Similar Groups (MSGs) are grouped areas that provide a benchmark for comparison of crime rates and other indicators with similar areas across England & Wales.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Chart 17: MSG comparison for Crimes in Monmouthshire December 2011– November 2012

Source: iQuanta Note: Most Similar Groups (MSGs) are grouped areas that provide a benchmark for comparison of crime rates and other indicators with similar areas across England & Wales. Charts 16 and 17 above show how the crime rate in Monmouthshire compares with other similar Community Safety partnerships in England and Wales. The 12 month crime rate reduction in Monmouthshire is 16.9% for the 12 month period up to Nov 2012 compared to the same 12 months a year earlier. This compares to a MSG average reduction of 8.5%. Some of the factors that may have contributed to this better than average reduction include noticeable reductions in burglary (dwelling and non-dwelling), shoplifting, public order offences and criminal damage offences.

Table 25: Top 15 Annual 2012 Crime Categories in Monmouthshire Crime Category 2011 2012 % Change Other Theft 601 553 -8.0% Burglary in a building other than a dwelling (Incl. attempts) 479 413 -13.8% Theft from vehicle 372 328 -11.8% Criminal damage to a vehicle 297 286 -3.7% Shoplifting 399 284 -28.8% Actual bodily harm and other injury 316 284 -10.1% Possession of controlled drugs (cannabis) 245 206 -15.9% Burglary in a dwelling (Incl. attempts) 150 173 15.3% Public fear, alarm or distress 219 148 -32.4% Common assault without injury 111 139 25.2% Other criminal damage 150 107 -28.7% Criminal damage to a dwelling 98 96 -2.0% Possession of controlled drugs (excl. cannabis) 80 85 6.3% Criminal damage to a building other than a dwelling 156 81 -48.1% Theft or unauthorised taking of motor vehicle 85 64 -24.7% Source: Gwent Police 41

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Table 24 above shows that “Other Theft” was the highest volume crime type in Monmouthshire during 2012. This crime type is made up of thefts such as bags, mobile phones, purses, drive offs from petrol stations and thefts from public buildings such as libraries, schools, hotels and leisure centres. Metal theft was the highest volume type of theft (118 recorded incidents), followed by fuel theft (60+ recorded incidents) and mobile phone thefts (41 recorded incidents). The main areas for metal theft have been Caerwent (10 incidents), Priory ward (9 incidents) and Llanfoist Fawr (9 incidents). The main area for fuel theft has been Mill ward and the main factor contributing to this was fuel theft at the Service Station as already mentioned above.

7.3 Violence against the person

The safety of residents is essential to confidence within our communities. Chart 18 shows the rate of police recorded violent crime against the person for the most recent two years. It highlights that the overall rate of offences per 1,000 people in Monmouthshire has reduced slightly during 2011-12 when compared with 2010-11. It has reduced from 8.67 to 8.32. The overall rate also reduced in two out of the three Welsh comparator authorities and Wales overall. Monmouthshire has the lowest rate of violence against the person offences of the Welsh comparator authorities and a rate which is below the Welsh average which was 12.77 during 2011-12.

Chart 18: Rate of violence against the person per 1,000 people. Welsh comparators

Source: Police Recorded Crime in England and Wales, Home Office In comparison to the English comparator authorities, Monmouthshire has less crimes of violence against people. Chart 18 shows the rates of police recorded violence against the person offences for 2011-12 for Monmouthshire and the English comparator authorities. As with the Welsh comparator authorities, Monmouthshire has the lowest overall rate and a rate below that of the overall rate for England and Wales combined. .

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Chart 19: Rate of violence against the person per 1,000 people by English comparators

Source: Police Recorded Crime in England and Wales, Home Office Table 26: Violent Crime in Monmouthshire by Crime Category Crime Category 2011 2012 % Change Assault less serious 317 303 -4.4% Other violence 278 189 -32.0% Assault without Injury* 117 158 35.0% Harassment 28 34 21.4% Most Serious violence 41 18 -56.1% Other notifiable offences 3 4 33.3% Violent Crime 784 706 -9.9% Source: Gwent Police, * Grouped category which includes common assault and assault on a constable without injury. Table 26 above shows that overall the volume of violent crime in Monmouthshire has reduced by 9.9% in 2012 when compared to 2011. However there have been increases in some of the less serious violent crime categories such as common assault, assault on Police and racially or religiously aggravated public fear, alarm or distress. Common assault increased from 111 to 140 (20.7%). The top three ward areas for this type of criminality during 2012 were St Marys (Chepstow), Croesonen (Abergavenny) and Priory (Abergavenny). The safety of our children and young people in all environments is essential. One of the main issues of concern is bullying. Young people have raised concerns about bullying and, in particular “cyber bullying” which is perceived to be an issue on face book and bebo11 (See section 8.7 Bullying). 7.4 Hate crime Hate crime is an area of violence which is often hidden, the availability of data to support localised areas of concern both in terms of geography and protected characteristics remains difficult to ascertain with a lot of hate crime not reported. However, this does not mean that it is not an issue. It is important to consider what we do both locally in Monmouthshire and collectively across Gwent. In 2012 there were 17 hate crimes in 43

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Monmouthshire compared to 8 in 2011, and although the small volume of cases makes it difficult to identify areas of concern, 7 offences occurred in the Chepstow wards. Racially or religiously aggravated public fear, alarm or distress increased from 1 to 13.

7.5 Sexual offences The crime rate for sexual offences in Monmouthshire was 0.58 crimes per 1,000 residents for the 12 months to December 2012. This compares to an MSG average crime rate of 0.73 and a Gwent wide crime rate of 0.89. Table 27 below shows the annual change in the volume of sexual offences in Monmouthshire. Overall such offences fell by 14.1% in 2012 compared to 2011. The low volume of some crime categories distorts the percentage change, and where this is the case the percentage change should be treated with caution. The table also shows that “sexual assault on a female under the age of 13” is the crime type with the joint highest volume. This is slightly unusual compared to the breakdown of sexual offences across Gwent. The volume of such offences is very low and it does not represent a year on year increase. Before drawing any conclusions about this it is worth consulting more widely with partners and with the Gwent Police PVP unit. Table 27: Sexual Offences in Monmouthshire by crime category Crime Category 2011 2012 Sexual assault on a female 23 16 Sexual assault on a male 6 4 Rape of a female 18 19 Exposure and voyeurism 5 3 Other 12 13 TOTAL Criminal Damage 64 55 Source: Gwent Police

7.6 Domestic abuse The number of domestic abuse incidents reported to the Police in Monmouthshire rose from 729 in 2010/11 to 782 in 2011/12 with a slight increase from 8.0 incidents per 1,000 residents to 8.8 incidents. The most recent figures for the 12 month period up to December 2012 show that the incident rate continues to increase, and currently stands at 9.2 incidents per 1,000 residents. The main reason for the increase is better awareness through improvement in information sharing between partners and the roll out of training for frontline workers. Although, Monmouthshire has the lowest level of domestic abuse in Gwent, it still remains a significant issue that affects family life. Domestic abuse crimes were up by 13.42% during 2010/11, with the largest increases in Monmouth and Caldicot24.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Map 2: Domestic abuse incident density in 2012 by Lower Super Output Area

Map 2 above shows the geographic distribution of annual Domestic Abuse incidents. The main high density areas are in and around the towns of Chepstow and Abergavenny. The two red areas in Abergavenny are in the Mardy and Pen-Y-Pound neighbourhoods. Analysis of the geocoded information shows that one of the factors contributing to the high density of Domestic Abuse in these two neighbourhoods is repeat offending, and a further factor is likely to be deprivation. When Domestic Abuse in Monmouthshire is ranked by LSOA, eleven of the twelve highest density areas fall in the twenty most deprived areas of Monmouthshire, and four of the them fall into the five most deprived areas (deprivation is based on the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation). Traditionally, the majority of referrals to the Independent Domestic Violence Advisor (IDVA) service came from Gwent Police, however, this is changing with a more agencies making referrals as anticipated with a more pro-active Multi-Agency Risk Assessment Conference (MARAC) now in place. During 2010-11 there were 22 non- Police referrals as opposed to only 8 during 2009-10.Of the 70 referrals to the IDVA service during 2010-11, 55 contacted the IDVA (79%) and 47 engaged after contact (85%). However, demand has increased during 2011/12, with 119 referrals of which101

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment contacted (84%) and 82 engaged (81%) a significant increase in demand and service take up from the previous year. The children in need census for Monmouthshire 2011 indicated that the most common parental factor presenting at referral was domestic abuse. This was present in 30% of children in need referrals, compared to 20% for Wales as a whole. This supports the recent analysis by the Principal Safeguarding Officer which indicated that domestic abuse was a concern for 51% of children registered on the child protection register between January and September 2011.

7.7 Burglary Chart 20 shows the rates of police recorded burglary offences for the most recent two financial years. It highlights that the overall rate has reduced in Monmouthshire from 8.66 in 2010/2011 to 6.51 in 2011/2012. This has brought the level down to below the Welsh average rate of 7.37. Prior to this in 2010/2011 the rate in Monmouthshire was higher than the Welsh average. Despite the reduction during 2011/2012 the overall rate is still above that of each of the three Welsh comparator authorities.

Chart 20: Rate of burglary per 1,000 people. Welsh comparators

Source: Police Recorded Crime in England and Wales, Home Office Burglary in a dwelling (including attempts) has increased in Monmouthshire from 150 in 2011 to 173 in 2012, which indicates a 15.3% increase. This increase is illustrated in charts 27 and 28 below, which show that the crime rate for burglary in a dwelling in Monmouthshire for the 12 months to Dec 2012 has increased by 14.1% (from 4.03 crimes per 1,000 residents to 4.6) against an MSG average decrease of 3.8%.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Chart 21: MSG comparison for Domestic Burglary in Monmouthshire January 2011 – December 2011.

Chart 22: MSG comparison for Domestic Burglary in Monmouthshire January 2012 – December 2012.

Source: iQuanta Note: Most Similar Groups (MSGs) are grouped areas that provide a benchmark for comparison of crime rates and other indicators with similar areas across England & Wales.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Analysis shows that the main types of property being taken in burglary dwelling crimes are cash, credit cards, and jewellery, and that two of the main contributory factors for the increase are (a) the activities of individual prolific offenders, and (b) the activities of travelling gangs who have targeted Monmouthshire.

The number of burglaries in a building other than a dwelling (including attempts) has decreased in Monmouthshire from 479 in 2011 to 413 in 2012, which equates to an 8% reduction. The crime rate for non-domestic burglary in Monmouthshire for the 12 months to December 2012 has decreased from 5.2 crimes per 1,000 residents to 4.5, although Monmouthshire continues to have a relatively high level of non-domestic burglary compared to other most similar group (MSG) members. Mountain bikes, quad bikes and motor bikes were the main types of property being targeted. There was also a significant increase in attempted non-dwelling burglaries up by 54% year on year, which may indicate criminals actively searching for high value bikes and motor bikes to steal.

7.8 Vehicle crime As a rural county 84.8% of our households own a car and we have a high proportion of households with multiple vehicles in Monmouthshire, with 12.1% of households with 3 or more cars. So we might expect households to experience high levels of vehicle-related theft. Despite this association the rate of vehicle crime appears to be decreasing, in line with the regional and UK trends. One contributing factor could be improved car design and security although theft from a vehicle still remains an issue.

Chart 23 shows the rates of police recorded vehicle crime offences for the most recent two years and highlights that the overall rate has reduced in Monmouthshire from 7.96 in 2010/2011 to 4.94 in 2011/2012. This has brought the level down to below the Welsh average rate of 6.12. Prior to this in 2010/2011 the rate in Monmouthshire was slightly higher than the Welsh average. Despite the reduction during 2011/2012 the overall rate is still above that of each of the three Welsh comparator authorities.

Chart 23: Rate of vehicle crime per 1,000 people. Welsh comparators

Source: Police Recorded Crime in England and Wales, Home Office

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Breaking into and stealing from cars is an area of concern. The geographic spread of theft from motor vehicles can be seen in Map 3 below. Abergavenny is the main hotspot, and the problem areas are around the Llanelly Hill, Llanfoist, Grofield and Priory wards.

Map 3: Theft from Motor Vehicles in Monmouthshire by Lower Super Output Area.

The main items that are being stolen include number plates, satellite navigation devices and fuel. There have also been a total of 8 crimes where a catalytic convertor has been removed. The majority of these crimes are being committed in the evening and/or overnight, 182 out of 328 for the 12 months to December 2012. A sample of all theft from motor vehicle crimes during 2012 shows that the method of entry for about 30% of them was through an unsecure door or window. This is an increase from about 21% during 2011. Forced entry on the other hand was down from about 35% to 30%. The remaining methods of entry unaccounted for are either due to no entry involving theft of fuel, number plate, catalytic convertor, wing mirror or because the method of entry has not been recorded.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Chart 24 shows the rates of police recorded theft from motor vehicle offences for 2011/2012 for Monmouthshire and the English comparator authorities. The chart highlights that the overall rate in Monmouthshire was below that of the England and Wales average. The chart highlights that the overall rate in Monmouthshire was below that of the England and Wales average. The overall rate in Monmouthshire was 3.84 offences per 1,000 people which was slightly higher than Herefordshire and North Devon but below that of York which was 4.54. Chart 24: Rate of theft from motor vehicles per 1,000 people by English comparators.

Source: Police Recorded Crime in England and Wales, Home Office

7.9 Shoplifting and theft During 2012 the overall volume of shoplifting across Monmouthshire fell by 28.8% from 399 to 284 when compared to 2011. This equates to a rate of 3.1 crimes per 1,000 residents, which is below the MSG average of 3.3. Table 28 below shows significant reduction in shoplifting across all the main wards except Grofield.

Table 28: Shoplifting by main wards in Monmouthshire BEAT Ward 2011 2012 MM81 Drybridge 78 73 MH81 St Marys 94 58 MA83 Priory 83 54 MA81 Grofield 21 23 MC81 Green Lane 30 15 Source: Gwent Police

Street level analysis show that Monnow Street, Monmouth accounted for 25% of all shoplifting in Monmouthshire, followed by Frogmore Street, Abergavenny and Station Road, Chepstow, which account for about 12% each. Between them these three streets account for almost half of all the shoplifting in Monmouthshire. The main items that have been targeted by shoplifters are food, meat and alcohol.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Temporal analysis shows that almost 62% of all shoplifting occurs between the hours of 11:00 and 16:00, and the peak day is Monday (53 incidents), followed by Saturday (48 incidents). Thursday and Friday is when shoplifting tends to be at its lowest. Both of these days have less than 40 incidents recorded for 2012. The detection rate for shoplifting during 2012 has fallen slightly from 81.7% in 2011 down to 77%. However this is higher than the Gwent Police average of 76%, and because many of the offenders are known it is possible to look at patterns of repeat offending. Within Monmouthshire there were 35 known repeat offenders in 2012, who between them accounted for about 50% of all shoplifting.

Overall there has been a reduction of 9.8% (750 incidents down to 677) in theft related offences, excluding vehicle thefts and shoplifting. However the highest volume of such offences was in Mill ward, Caldicot where there were 44 offences in 2012 compared to 16 in 2011. The main factor contributing to this increase was fuel theft from Magor Service station. Other areas where there has been an increase include Llanfoist Fawr ward, up from 27 to 30 where many of the thefts are fuel related, Lansdown ward, up from 23 to 28, where there has been a mixture of metal and electrical item thefts, and Caldicot Castle ward, up from 12 to 21 where a particular hot spot along Church Road has contributed to the increase.

Metal theft was the highest volume type of theft (118 recorded incidents), followed by fuel theft (60+ recorded incidents), mobile phone thefts (45 recorded incidents), pedal cycles (48 incidents) and cash (44 incidents). The main areas for metal theft have been Caerwent (10 incidents), Priory ward (9 incidents) and Llanfoist Fawr (9 incidents). The main area for fuel theft has been Mill ward and the main factor contributing to this was fuel theft at the Service Station already mentioned.

There were a total of 158 metal theft offences in Monmouthshire during 2012. This represents a decrease of 27.8% from the year before. The main types of metal that have been targeted in 2012 are lead and copper, which a similar profile to 2011.

7.10 Criminal damage During 2012 the volume of criminal damage reported to the Police in Monmouthshire fell by 17.5% from 719 to 593 when compared to 2011, and currently stands at a rate of 6.5 incidents per 1,000 residents.

Table 29: below shows the six categories of criminal damage. Crime Category 2011 2012 % Change Criminal damage to a vehicle 297 286 -3.7% Other criminal damage 150 107 -28.7% Criminal damage to a dwelling 98 96 -2.0% Criminal damage to a building other than a dwelling 156 81 -48.1% Arson not endangering life 16 22 37.5% Arson endangering life 2 1 -50.0% TOTAL Criminal Damage 719 593 -17.5% Source: Gwent Police

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

The type of damage that has been caused to dwelling properties tends to be window and door damage. This can be as a result of a domestic incident or an attempted forced entry to the property. The type of damage that has been caused to vehicles tends to be wing mirror and windscreen damage. This can be as a result of vandalism or an attempted forced entry to the vehicle. Table 30: Criminal damage by top 10 wards in 2012.

Source: Gwent Police Table 30 shows the top 10 wards in Monmouthshire during 2012 for criminal damage. The two wards that have seen an increase are Lansdown, Abergavenny and Green Lane, Caldicot. About half of the criminal damage in both wards has been vehicle related. The reduction in criminal damage is a significant improvement, but it still remains as one of the highest volume crime categories in Monmouthshire and Gwent more widely. There were 593 reported incidents throughout Monmouthshire in 2012, accounting for 15.8% of all crime.

Chart 25 shows the rates of police recorded criminal damage offences for the most recent two years and highlights that the overall rate has reduced in Monmouthshire from 9.28 in 2010/2011 to 7.23 in 2011/2012 and was below the Welsh average of 11.86.It was also below all Welsh comparator areas with the exception of Ceredigion at 6.85.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Chart 25: Rate of criminal damage offences per 1,000 people by English comparators.

Source: Police Recorded Crime in England and Wales, Home Office The reduction in criminal damage is impressive, but it still remains as one of the highest volume crime categories in Monmouthshire and Gwent more widely. Further investigation of the long term trend shows a significant decline in criminal damage from 1232 in March 2003 to 593 in 2012.

7.11 Anti-social behaviour (ASB)

Anti-social behaviour can leave people feeling intimidated and frightened. It is behaviour which means different things to different people. According to directgov.com, anti-social behaviour (ASB) includes the following:  rowdy, noisy behaviour in otherwise quiet neighbourhoods;  night time noise from houses or gardens, especially between 11.00pm and 7.00am;  threatening, drunken or „yobbish‟ behaviour;  vandalism, graffiti and fly-posting;  dealing or buying drugs on the street;  litter and fly-tipping rubbish;  aggressive begging;  drinking in the street;  setting off fireworks late at night, and  abandoning cars on the street.

Within Monmouthshire, as shown in Table 31, the number of police recorded antisocial behaviour incidents has decreased significantly between 2011 and 2012 from 3,845 to 2,375 (38.2%) and approximately 70% of all ASB occurs in 15 wards. The wards of Priory, Abergavenny and Overmonnow, Monmouth have both seen a significant decrease in cases, while Green Lane, Caldicot and St Kingsmark, Chesptow, and have seen a slight increase in cases.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Table 31: Top 15 wards for Anti-Social Behaviour reported to Gwent Police.

Source: Gwent Police Reported cases are closely related to the town centre and to a certain extent to the night time economy. Temporal analysis shows that over 50% of all ASB reported cases across Monmouthshire occur between the hours of 17:00 and 01:00 with the majority occurring before 22:00hrs. The ASB along Frogmore Street, Abergavenny is predominantly night time economy related and youth related near Tesco and the Subway shops with some disturbance around the bus station. Green lane, Caldicot is a town centre ward with a comprehensive school and most of the ASB is youth related. St Kingsmark, Chepstow is predominantly a residential area that includes the comprehensive school with the main factors being neighbour disputes and youth related ASB.

Table 32: Police reported ASB Hotspots in Monmouthshire 2012. Location Town Incidents Newport Street Caldicot 146 Frogmore Street Abergavenny 39 Old Hereford Road Abergavenny 35 Monmouth Road Abergavenny 32 Monnow Street Monmouth 31 Bus Station Abergavenny 27 Kings Head Public House Chepstow 13 King Henry Viii School Abergavenny 16 Bailey Park Abergavenny 14 Bus Station Monmouth 13 Source: Gwent Police

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Table 33 below shows ASB that has been reported to Monmouthshire County Council. This type of ASB tends to be around environmental issues, rather than nuisance behaviour issues. But never the less, these issues cause problems to individuals and communities that form part of the overall picture of Anti-Social Behaviour. The main types of ASB that are being reported to the Council are related to dog fouling, noise (dogs, music and noisy neighbours mostly) and fly tipping.

Table 33: Monmouthshire County Council reported ASB by Category.

Source: Monmouthshire County Council

7.12 Arson As a rural county we are at risk of deliberate countryside fires. During 2010/11, rate of deliberate fires was higher in Monmouthshire than each of the English comparable authorities. There is a wide difference between the rate in Monmouthshire which was 203 fires per 100,000 population and Herefordshire which was 80 fires per 100,000. Chart 26: Rate of all Deliberate Fires in 2010/11 by English comparators.

Source: Communities and Local Government 55

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Chart 27 shows the rate of all deliberate fires during 2010/11 in Monmouthshire in contrast to each of the Welsh comparable authorities. As with the English comparator authorities Monmouthshire has the highest rate. The lowest rate was in Ceredigion where there was a rate of 40 per 100,000. Chart 27: Rate of all deliberate fires 2010/11 by Welsh comparators.

Source: Communities and Local Government During 2010-12 Abergavenny and Caldicot stations had the most deliberate primary fires to deal with 29 and 27 respectively followed by Monmouth. Chepstow fire station and Usk fire station had the least deliberate primary fires to deal with. Chart 28: Number of Deliberate Primary Fires by Station

Deliberate primary fires by station 2010-12 35

25 Abergavenny

20 Caldicot Monmouth 15

Number Chepstow 10 Usk 5

Source: South Wales Fire and Rescue Service

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

7.13 Youth Offending

Chart 29 highlights that the rate of first time entrants into the criminal justice system in Monmouthshire has reduced substantially since 2006-07. Apart from 2007-08 where there was an annual increase the rate has reduced by 55% which is a significant reduction. This overall reduction has been seen across each of the Welsh comparator authorities. Apart from in 2007-08 when there was an increase the overall rate has consistently remained below the Welsh average. However the rate in Monmouthshire during 2010/2011 was higher than Powys but lower than Ceredigion and Carmarthenshire.

Chart 29: Rate of young people receiving their first reprimand, warning or conviction.

Rate of young people receiving their first reprimand, warning or conviction 2,500

2,000 Monmouthshire Ceredigion 1,500

17 17 yearolds in Pembrokeshire - Powys

1,000 Wales population 500

0 Rate Rate per 10,000 10

Source: Ministry of Justice

Chart 30 highlights that as with the Welsh picture the rate of first time entrants into the criminal justice system in England has reduced substantially since 2006/2007. It has also reduced in each of the English comparator authorities. The overall rate in Monmouthshire during 2010/11 was second highest when compared with the English authorities and was only below that of York.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Chart 30: Rate of young people receiving their first reprimand, warning or conviction by English comparators

Rate of young people receiving their first reprimand, warning or conviction 2,500

2,000 Monmouthshire York 1,500

17 17 yearolds in Herefordshire - Devon

1,000 England population 500

0 Rate Rate per 10,000 10

Source: Ministry of Justice

Latest available data for the rate of proven re-offending for young people who have entered the criminal justice system is available up until 2009/10. Chart 31 shows that broadly the rates of re-offending have been roughly in line across each of the Welsh comparator authorities. The overall rate in Monmouthshire in between 2005/06 and 2009/10 has been in between 22.1% and 26.8%. Most recent data for 2009/10 highlights the rate at 25% which is slightly below the England and Wales average of 26.3% Chart 31: Percentage proven re-offending rate for young people by Welsh comparators.

Percentage rate of proven reoffending of young people 30.0

25.0

20.0 Monmouthshire Ceredigion 15.0 Pembrokeshire Powys 10.0

England & Wales % proven reoffending 5.0

0.0 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

Source: Ministry of Justice

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

7.14 Road safety

As a large rural county the safety of our roads cannot be over looked. There are two motorways in Monmouthshire the M4 and M48, with a substantial level of traffic coming into Wales across the two severn crossing bridges. There is no doubt that the majority of people own a car and use our busy roads to travel around. A significant amount of people travel to work and 42% of Monmouthshire residents commute to work outside the County (See 5.2 Section Rurality).

We must continue to monitor the impact of all accidents on our roads. Chart 32 highlights the rate of road traffic accident casualties over the course of the last five years up to 2011. It should be noted that the data details all types of injuries including slight injuries, and not just those involving death or serious injury.

The news here is relatively good as the overall rate of casualties per 100,000 population in Monmouthshire has reduced year on year since 2007 and has remained the same for 2010 and 2011. The overall rate in Monmouthshire has remained consistently below the Welsh average and the lowest amongst the Welsh comparators.

Chart 32: Road traffic casualties per 100,000 population per year.

All road casualties, per 100,000 population 700

600

500 Monmouthshire 400 Ceredigion

Rate 300 Pembrokeshire Powys 200 Wales 100

Source: Welsh Government, StatsWales However, there is some concern over the number of fatalities from accidents on our roads. Chart 33 highlights how despite the overall casualty rate being consistently below the Welsh average and the lowest of the Welsh authorities there has been an increase in the number of people killed or seriously injured during 2011 when compared with 2010. There were 46 people killed or seriously injured in 2011 compared with 28 in 2010.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Chart 33: Number of people killed or seriously injured in road traffic accidents 2005-2011.

Number of people killed or seriously injured in road traffic accidents 80

20 No. No. of people KSI 10

Source: Welsh Government, StatsWales

Chart 34 shows the rate of people killed or seriously injured per 100,000 population during 2010 and 2011 in Monmouthshire and in the Welsh comparable authorities. The rate has increased both across Wales and each of the Welsh comparators including Monmouthshire apart from Pembrokeshire. The overall rate of people killed or seriously injured during both 2010 and 2011 was above the Welsh average in Monmouthshire but was not as high as Ceredigion or Powys and generally the same as Pembrokeshire during 2011. Chart 34: Number of people killed or seriously injured in road traffic accidents per 100,000 populations 2010 & 2011 by Welsh comparators

Killed or seriously injured, rate per 100,000 140 120 100 2010 80 2011 60 40 20 Rate 100,000 Rate per 0

Source: Welsh Government, StatsWales

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Chart 35 shows the rate of people killed or seriously injured per 100,000 population during 2010 and 2011 in Monmouthshire and in the English comparable authorities. The rate in Monmouthshire was second lowest in 2010 at 31 per 100,000. It has risen second highest in 2011 with a rate of 52. Chart 35: Number of people killed or seriously injured in road traffic accidents per 100,000 populations 2010 & 2011 by English comparators Killed or seriously injured rate per 100,000 90 80 70 60 2010 50 40 2011 30 20 10

0 Rate Rate per 100,000 population

Source: Welsh Government.

The four main repeat locations for road traffic accidents are the town centre area of Chepstow including the A48, the Magor junction area of the M4, Monmouth Town centre area and the A465 area near to Abergavenny.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

7.15 Identified needs

In order for people to feel safe in their communities we need to:

 Work with communities to reduce their fear of crime.

 Support young people to feel safe in school without being bullied.

 Break the cycle of crime and anti-social behaviour amongst young people.

 Develop safer road systems and educate drivers.

 Continue to support Community Safety Action Teams in each of our four main towns to provide a local response to community safety issues.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

8. Outcome Five: People’s lives are not affected by alcohol and drug misuse.

8.1 Overview

It is essential to support people to be free from the direct harm of substance misuse and to reduce the impact on their families and communities. 'Working Together to Reduce Harm32' is the Welsh Government‟s ten year plan to tackle the problems caused by drugs and alcohol in Wales. The strategy has four main areas of action; preventing harm, supporting substance misusers, supporting families and tackling availability and protecting individuals and communities.

8.2 Drug and alcohol misuse It is difficult to accurately measure the proportion of people using illegal drugs in Monmouthshire. What is available are a number of proxy measures to assist in understanding what might be the likely pattern of use within Monmouthshire. The number of drug offences recorded by Gwent Police and referrals to treatment services provide an indication of supply and demand. Both measures require a more detail discussion in context in order to understand variation. Access, availability and behaviour effect referrals and police practice and recording effects offences. Although, treatment referrals in Monmouthshire are low when compared with the rest of Wales this doesn‟t necessarily indicate or suggest we have no problems. Table 34: Referrals to Substance Misuse Services for Monmouthshire residents. Year Alcohol Drugs Heroin 2008/2009 186 216 92 2009/2010 296 209 87 2010/2011 271 222 109 Source: WNDSM, NHS Wales Informatics Service The number of people who attend treatment services is more indicative of access, availability and service user response to the offer of support and help. Table 3 provides information on the take up of treatment services for Monmouthshire residents. It shows the number of individuals who have been referred for treatment with a substance misuse treatment provider over the three year period 2008-2011. Self-referral into these services remains the most significant and highest category of referral type with the main support being for people who misuse heroin. There was a substantial increase in the number of individuals referred for alcohol misuse in 2009/10 compared with 2008/09. Data from the Welsh health survey 2010-11 certainly shows an increase in the number of adults who admit to drinking in excess of the recommended units of alcohol each day. There is also a suggestion that we are experiencing an increase in the use of new wave drugs. In some cases these drugs are available over the internet, with mephedrone the main constituent substance with young people the main user group. Users report that mephedrone produces a similar experience to drugs like amphetamines, ecstasy or cocaine. We do not known how many people use mephedrone in Monmouthshire as these drugs do not feature in any of the major surveys on drug use. Anecdotal evidence suggests mephedrone based drugs have become popular among young club-goers and among more general recreational 63

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment drug users. The dangers of mephedrone use include associated dis-inhibition, including extreme violence and suicidal actuation associated with its withdrawal stage when users come back down after use. The Regional Intelligence Unit for Wales report for Wales26 identified Monmouthshire as a high use area with Abergavenny a suggested hotspot. Ketamine also gives cause for concern with Monmouth seen as an early hotspot area for misuse. Chronic misuse can lead to complex urinary tract disorders, and associated bladder cancer. This substance is more commonly used as a horse tranquiliser in veterinary care. Table 35: Estimated incidence of Drug Misuse 2008/09-2010/11.

Period Monmouthshire Ceredigion Powys Pembrokeshire Wales 2008-09 219 263 280 200 280 2009-10 203 200 246 200 280 2010-11 211 152 272 259 307 Source: Welsh Government, StatsWales. Note: rate per 100,000 A comparison of local authority incidence is difficult to analyse with any degree of certainty. A significant amount of illegal drug misuse remains hidden. National estimates at best are only an indication of the true picture (See Table 35) with the estimated incidence of drug misuse in Monmouthshire 211 per 100,000 compared to 307 per 100,000 in Wales. The impact of illegal drug use in our communities is substantial. So it is important to consider the level of drug offences. Chart 36 shows monthly drug offences in Monmouthshire. However, caution is required when looking at police recorded data on arrests for drug offences, as these data can be misleading. It is important to consider the data in context, and in our case the data is more likely to reflect pro-active police work by Gwent Police rather than an indication of increased drug related activity. Chart 36: Monthly Drug offences in Monmouthshire 2009 –2012 Monthly Drug Offences in Monmouthshire 50

Source: iQUANTA, Home Office 64

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Table 36 below shows the annual volume of drug related crimes in Monmouthshire for 2012. Overall there has been a reduction of 24.8% when compared to 2011. Of more significant interest is the rate of drug offences in Monmouthshire when compared to other MSG members as shown in Charts 37 and 38. Despite the reduction in offences, Monmouthshire continues to have the highest rate of drug offences within the MSG. Table 36: Annual drug offences in Monmouthshire 2009 –2012 Crime Category 2011 2012 % Change Possession of controlled drugs (Cannabis) 245 206 -15.9% Possession of controlled drugs (excl. Cannabis) 80 85 6.3% Trafficking of controlled drugs 33 28 -15.2% Other drug offences 2 0 n/a TOTAL Criminal Damage 360 319 -24.8% Source: Gwent Police, iQUANTA Chart 37: MSG comparison the rate of Drug Offences per 1000 residents 2010-11

Chart 38: MSG comparison the rate of Drug Offences per 1000 residents 2011-12

Source: Gwent Police, iQUANTA

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Table 37 shows the top 10 wards for drug offences in Monmouthshire, which account for more than 50% of all offences throughout Monmouthshire. There are some increases locally and the percentage figures on their own can look quite alarming. However it is important to look at the volume figures as well in order to avoid distorting the reality of the year on year changes. Table 37: Annual drug offences for 10 top wards in Monmouthshire 2011 –2012

Source: Gwent Police, iQUANTA Alcohol misuse is a societal issue and by no means restricted to young people. But drinking habits are formed early, so it's vital to take action early if we are to make an impact and bring about the cultural shift needed to rebalance the growing problem in Monmouthshire. There is very little information available on alcohol misuse for children and young people in Monmouthshire. Evidence from previous studies suggest children as young as 11 years of age are drinking alcohol on our streets at midday and being referred to alcohol treatment services7. Research estimates 1500 young people in Monmouthshire between the age of 11 and 15 drink at least weekly. In our towns there are hot spot areas where groups of youths aged between 15 and 25 congregate to drink and play loud music, causing distress and disturbance to nearby residents. Frequent calls to the police bring an added burden on their service7.The adverse social outcomes of alcohol misuse by young people is commonly characterised by young people missing school, falling behind in schoolwork, unplanned and unprotected sexual activity, arguments with friends, destructive behaviour and being in trouble with the Police (WHO, 2004).

A detailed analysis of crime data for the 12 months to December 2012 shows that six wards have a crime rate above the welsh average. They are all town centre wards apart from Lansdown ward in Abergavenny (See section 6.2 Crime). There is no doubt that some of this crime is associated with drug and alcohol use, and occurs during night time. This undoubtedly has an impact on the night time economy of our towns.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Welsh health survey 2010-11shows Monmouthshire has the third highest percentage in Wales of adults who admit to drinking in excess of the recommended units of alcohol each day8. When compared to the 2009-10 health survey Monmouthshire is 2.8 per cent worse (See Table 5). The percentage figure in 2009-10 was 43.3 and 45.7 in 2010-11. Table 38: % of adults who reported drinking above the guidelines on at least one day in the past week (age-standardised-persons) Local Authority 2009/10 2010/11 % Difference Pembrokeshire 38.5 38.8 0.3 Carmarthenshire 39.5 39.4 -0.1 Ceredigion 41.3 40.1 -1.2 Powys 40.6 40.6 0.0 Blaenau Gwent 43.5 40.7 -2.8 Newport 45.1 42.0 -3.1 Wrexham 43.4 42.3 -1.1 Isle of Anglesey 43.4 42.4 -1.0 Denbighshire 44.6 42.4 -2.2 Merthyr Tydfil 45.6 42.5 -3.1 Gwynedd 44.6 43.0 -1.6 Wales 44.2 43.7 -0.5 Conwy 43.5 44.5 1.0 Torfaen 41.7 44.5 2.8 Neath Port Talbot 46.9 44.9 -2.0 Flintshire 46 45.0 -1.0 Swansea 45.2 45.3 0.1 Cardiff 46.1 45.3 -0.8 Rhondda Cynon Taf 44.2 45.4 1.2 Bridgend 47.6 45.7 -1.9 Monmouthshire 43.3 45.7 2.4 Caerphilly 45.4 45.9 0.5 The Vale of Glamorgan 46.9 46.5 -0.4 Source: Welsh Health Surveys 2009-10 and 2010-11 The impact on health care is significant. On average between 2007 and 2009 there were 411 females and 593 males admitted to hospital with alcohol attributable condition12 with an increasing number of deaths related to excess alcohol consumption. Emerging national evidence suggests that adults from higher earning backgrounds are more likely to exceed recommended alcohol limits. Data from Office for National Statistics General Lifestyle survey 2010 suggests the average weekly consumption was highest at 12.9 units in the managerial and professional group and, at 10.5 units, was lowest among those in routine and manual worker households. This difference is particularly pronounced for women where the managerial and professional group average 9.2 units and the routine and manual group average 6.2 units a week38. This could provide some explanation as to why Monmouthshire now has the 3rd highest proportion of adults drinking above the sensible limits. 67

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Chart 39: % Adults who report drinking above guidelines at least one day in the past week (age-standardised) 2010-11 Survey

Source: Welsh Health Survey 2010/11 The effects of drinking to excess can often have a negative impact on our behaviour. There is evidence to suggest a strong correlation between alcohol misuse and domestic abuse. 75% of domestic abuse incidences in Monmouthshire attended by Gwent Police over a 3 month period involved the victim or perpetrator consuming either alcohol or drugs. It can be difficult to ascertain whether alcohol is a causal factor of domestic abuse or an outcome of domestic abuse7. Although there are no official statistics about the role of alcohol in crime and disorder, it is possible to look at the number of occasions alcohol is recorded as a contributing factor to crime. Analysis shows that in 2012 just over 10% of all crime in Monmouthshire was recorded with an aggravating factor of alcohol. Violent crime is the most affected by alcohol, with almost 44% having an aggravating factor linked to alcohol. Chepstow has the highest percentage of crimes with an alcohol flag (13.2%), followed by Abergavenny (11.6%).

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

8.3 Identified needs

To reduce the impact of substance misuse and enable people to be free from harm, we need to:

 Improve the availability and quality of education, prevention and treatment services and related support.

 Ensure opportunities exist for young people to talk to someone about drug and alcohol issues.

 Create improved awareness of and access to local treatment services.

 Improve public protection within the night time economy.

 Focus services where there is greatest need.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

9. Outcome Six: Vulnerable families are supported.

9.1 Overview All families in Monmouthshire should benefit from positive environments to nurture their children to grow, develop and prosper. A multi-agency approach to the delivery of evidence-based interventions direct to families where children are at risk or vulnerable is crucial to making a real difference.

9.2 Looked after children The number of looked after children as at the end of September 2012 was 112. The trend remains upward, with a very fluctuating range between 82 and 106 last year, with historical data reporting a recent low of 75 in November 2010. It is important to consider local practice and procedures for taking children and young people into care, before making the assumption that the number of vulnerable children is increasing.

Chart 40: Trend in Looked After Children in Monmouthshire 120

100

Nov-10 Aug-12 Oct-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 40 Sep-10

Source: Monmouthshire Childrens Social Services, ICS

It is essential to secure stable placements for our children in care. Stability is recognised as an important factor for the wellbeing of children in care. The Welsh Government indicator SCC004 measures the extent to which the local authority is able to provide stable placements for children looked after. Chart 49 highlights that the overall trend in the percentage of looked after children with more than three placements in the year has been reducing in Monmouthshire since 2007. Data for 2011 was not published due to disclosure reasons and/or not being sufficiently robust for publication. This may suggest a small number of child placements with 3 or more changes in placement recorded in that year. Generally, Monmouthshire is lower than the Welsh average for this indicator and had the second lowest percentage in Wales during 2010.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Chart 41: SCC004 % looked after children with 3 or more placements in year.

Percentage of looked after children with three or more placements during the year

14 Monmouthshire 12 Ceredigion 10 Pembrokeshire 8 Powys 6 Wales

% lookedchildren % after 4

Note: 2011 value for 0 Monmouthshire is disclosive or not sufficiently robust for publication

Source: Welsh Government, StatsWales Although, our teenage pregnancy rates in Monmouthshire suggest we do not have any cause for concern, a recent report into the status of our looked after children suggested that the proportion of teenage girls who are looked after or are care leavers, and have a baby or are currently pregnant is significantly high.

Chart 42: % of looked after children with more than 3 placements in the year by English comparators

Percentage of looked after children with three or more placements during the year 30

25 Monmouthshire 20 Herefordshire Devon 15 York

5 % looked after children

0 Note: 2011 value for Monmouthshire is disclosive or not sufficiently robust for publication

Source: Welsh Government, StatsWales

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

9.3 Safeguarding people The number of children on the child protection register shows a recent high of 85 full registrations as at the end of July 2011. These are registrations under the care of Monmouthshire. There has been a significant increase in numbers in the period up to July 2011. In the year 2010/11, we saw on average 40 full registrations, and a range between a recent low of 29 and 54. In 2011/12, we saw on average 71 full registrations and a range between 53 and 85, a significant increase in numbers. Since then although the trend remains variable, the data suggests a decline in full registrations. Chart 43: Trend in children on the child protection register.

Source: Monmouthshire Childrens Social Services, ICS

The profile of those children who have been added to the register over this period, in terms of category of registration, geographical distribution and “trigger concerns “do not show any significant shift from the pattern seen previously. What we are dealing with are still broadly concerns about children‟s emotional wellbeing, and worries about them being neglected, due to parental domestic abuse, substance misuse, and mental ill health. We also know that the regional and national trend in registrations has increased during recent years in part no doubt fuelled by the “Baby P exposure”.

In 2000 strategic guidance was issued to authorities in Wales called „In Safe Hands‟. It established the national framework for the development of local policies, procedures and guidance for the protection of vulnerable adults. During the last five years the Protection of Vulnerable Adults (POVA) team received the following referrals.

Table 39: Number of POVA Referrals in Monmouthshire Period Referrals Received Progressed to Strategy Discussion 2011-2012 : 216 162 2010-2011: 215 105 2009-2010 : 192 136 2008-2009: 169 117 2007-2008: 144 Source: POVA Team, Monmouthshire Adult Social Services. 72

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Tackling adult abuse by safeguarding vulnerable adults remains a partnership matter which all service providers, statutory authorities, regulatory bodies and the police need to deal with. All citizens and organisations have a role in protecting vulnerable adults from abuse wherever and whenever it occurs. There is no room for complacency highlighted by “Southern Cross”.

9.4 Child poverty Welsh Assembly Government has consistently made it clear that reducing child poverty is a fundamental element of its social justice agenda and also a major priority under Programme for Government. There are a number of key proxy measures throughout this report which reflect progress towards achieving this goal. However, there are two key standalone measures which provide a snapshot comparison.

The most important indicator is the revised local child poverty measure which attempts to recreate the relative child poverty measure as set out in the Child Poverty Act 2010 at a local level (See means tested indicator below). According to the HM Revenue and Customs, the most recent data has Monmouthshire at 13.1% the lowest in Wales, with Blaenau Gwent the highest at 30.4%. Table 40: Child Poverty Indicators as at January 2011 Measures Monmouthshire Wales Proportion of children living in families in receipt of out of work (means-tested) benefits or in receipt of tax credits 13.1% 22.2% where their reported income is less than 60% of median* Proportion of children in workless households. 10.8% 18.6%

Source: HM Revenue and Customs*, Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics 2011 The challenge in Monmouthshire is to identify small geographical areas or pockets that do not compare well with the rest of the county. Using a wide array of measures Monmouthshire often compares favourably with other counties in Wales, child poverty is no exception. However, HM Revenue and Customs have produced a data analysis at the Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA) for the revised child poverty measure. LSOA is a geographic hierarchy designed to improve the reporting of small area statistics. Unlike electoral wards, the SOA layers are of consistent size across the country and will not be subjected to regular boundary change. What the data analysis confirms are higher child poverty rates for some families living in the most deprived LSOAs in Monmouthshire, with 24 LSOAs above the 13.1% rate for Monmouthshire. Cantref 2, Thornwell 1 and Mardy 1 have significantly high rates and these areas are pre-dominantly housing association rented properties, the majority being ex-local authority maintained houses.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Table 41: Child Poverty by Lower Super Output Area in Monmouthshire January 2011

% of Children % of Children LSOA Code in Poverty LSOA Code in Poverty Cantref 2 W01001546 35.2% Usk 1 W01001596 10.4% Thornwell 1 W01001592 35.0% Llanbadoc W01001560 9.0% Mardy 1 W01001570 32.6% Mill 1 W01001572 8.7% West End W01001598 28.3% Llanover 2 W01001567 8.4% Dewstow & Green Lane 1 W01001550 26.6% Mardy 2 W01001571 8.3% Overmonnow 2 W01001577 26.5% Rogiet W01001582 7.7% Lansdown W01001558 24.6% Mill 3 W01001574 7.1% Castle & Llanfoist Fawr W01001564 24.4% Raglan W01001581 6.8% St. Christopher's W01001584 22.2% Llanover 1 W01001566 6.4% Overmonnow 1 W01001576 21.7% Severn 1 W01001588 6.4% Dewstow & Green Lane 2 W01001551 21.5% Portskewett W01001578 6.3% Croesonen W01001547 20.2% Drybridge 2 W01001554 5.8% Goetre Fawr 2 W01001556 20.1% Llantilio Crossenny W01001568 5.8% Severn 2 W01001589 20.1% Mill 2 W01001573 5.6% Thornwell 2 W01001593 17.8% Caldicot Castle 1 W01001543 5.2% Grofield W01001557 16.9% Usk 2 W01001597 5.2% Llanelly Hill 3 W01001563 16.6% St. Kingsmark 1 W01001585 5.1% Drybridge 1 W01001553 16.5% Shirenewton W01001590 5.0% Caldicot Castle 2 W01001544 16.4% St. Arvans W01001583 4.9% Priory 1 W01001579 15.6% Devauden W01001549 4.8% Priory 2 W01001580 15.2% Dixton with Osbaston W01001552 4.8% Llanelly Hill 2 W01001562 15.1% Trellech United 2 W01001595 4.8% Llanwenarth Ultra W01001569 14.5% Caerwent W01001542 4.4% Wyesham W01001599 14.4% Llangybi Fawr W01001565 3.9% Larkfield W01001559 12.1% St. Kingsmark 2 W01001586 3.0% Trellech United 1 W01001594 11.9% Cantref 1 W01001545 2.6% Crucorney W01001548 11.8% Goetre Fawr 1 W01001555 2.2% Mitchel Troy W01001575 10.9% The Elms W01001591 1.7% St. Mary's W01001587 10.5% Llanelly Hill 1 W01001561 1.6% Source: HM Revenue and Customs, Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics 2011 9.5 Self-harm and other significant events There are concerns that self-harm amongst young people has become a serious issue in Monmouthshire. It is difficult to understand the extent of the problem without improved information sharing across agencies. The sensitive nature of individual cases makes an accurate trend or pattern in prevalence difficult to identify. Data collection would benefit from a clear understanding and definition of self-harm across agencies. In order to start to understand the main presenting factors and the impact on services across the county we have considered emergency attendances to accident and emergency departments in Gwent. Table 8 shows a 2012 snapshot of the number of Monmouthshire children and young people attending accident and emergency departments in Gwent for self-harm and other associated significant events.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Table 42: Children aged 0-17 attending A&E Departments during 2012 Category Total Intoxicated 21 Self-Harm 12 Attempted Suicide 1 Overdose (Not specified) 34 Overdose (Own medication) 8 Overdose (Family/Friends medication) 12 Cleaning Products 3 Other Substances 10 Total 101 Source: Aneurin Bevan Health Board, A&E attendance 2012

9.6 Bullying The safety of our children and young people in all environments is essential. With this in mind Monmouthshire local safeguarding board carried out a survey of young people‟s perception of some of the main issues that concern them. One of the main issues of concern was bullying. Young people raised concerns about bullying and, in particular “cyber bullying” which is perceived to be an issue on face book and bebo11. The most common worry for children and young people at school was bullies or being bullied. 72% of children aged 5-10 felt completely safe when they were at school and only 58% of young people aged 11-19, felt completely safe when they are at school.

9.8 Supporting people in crisis In times of austerity with less financial assistance available to support our citizens, more and more people are starting to experience problems of associated with a lack of available finance. As welfare reforms take hold this is likely to get worse. We are already seeing evidence of hardship and struggle with two recent “food banks” established in Abergavenny and Chepstow. In 2011/12, the four Citizen Advice Bureaux‟s across Monmouthshire dealt with 4,177 clients and 9,498 problems. The main presenting problems were benefit 3,496 (37%), debt 2,370 (25%), employment 747 (8%) and housing 569 (6%). There was a year on year increase in employment support allowance up 71% to 610 problems, catalogue and mail order debt up 20% up to 120 problems, income support up 8% to 141 problems, council tax and rent arrears up 3% to 205 problems and housing benefit up 1% to 263 problems.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

We have discussed domestic abuse under the outcome “people feel safe” section 7.5 domestic abuse. In fact this is an area which impacts on several outcomes including:  People have access to appropriate and affordable housing.  People‟s lives are not affected by drug and alcohol abuse.  People feel safe (see section 7.5 for detail). 9.9 Identified needs

To better support our vulnerable families to feel supported we need:

 To support our families earlier to prevent them becoming more vulnerable.

 Better co-ordinated support which can react more quickly.

 Good access to financial support and advice.

 To ensure our families know how to access Domestic Abuse support.  To support carers in all settings.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

10. Outcome Seven: Business and enterprise thrives

10.1 Overview Monmouthshire is a predominantly rural county with a rich cultural and natural history that makes it a popular tourist destination. Its tourism and leisure industries are well developed to cater for the substantial visitor population. Approximately 2.1 million people visit Monmouthshire each year.

We aim to improve the prosperity of our county and its attractiveness to business. It is essential to keep economic development driven and shaped by the market place not just the council. Crucial to this is attracting and safeguarding jobs and business in partnership. Its strategic location, allied to strong transport links and a well-qualified workforce, should attract businesses from a number of sectors. Its location and transport links also allow many residents to maintain employment outside the area.

10.2 Economy Gross value added (GVA) is a measure of the size of the economy of an area. GVA per head in 2009 stood at £19,229 in Monmouthshire. This was above the Welsh average and the joint third highest amongst the 22 Welsh local authorities. Between 1999 and 2009 GVA per head in Monmouthshire has been above the Welsh average, although the gap has narrowed slightly over this period.

Chart 44: Gross value added per head in Monmouthshire 1999- 2009.

Source: Regional Accounts, Office for National Statistics

The gross disposable household income (GDHI) measures the level of disposable income available to households. In 2009, GDHI per head in Monmouthshire stood at £14,989 and was the joint highest amongst the 22 Welsh local authorities. Between 1999 and 2010 GDHI per head in Monmouthshire has been above the Welsh average.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Chart 45: Gross disposal household income per head in Monmouthshire 1999-2009.

Source: Regional Accounts, Office for National Statistics

In 2011 average weekly earnings in Monmouthshire stood at £494. This was the ninth lowest amongst the 22 Welsh local authorities. In 2001 earnings in the Monmouthshire were below the Welsh average, they moved above in 2006 and were below in 2011.

Chart 46: Average Gross weekly full-time earnings in Monmouthshire 2011.

Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, Office for National Statistics

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

10.3 Business The Monmouthshire rural footprint ensures that the agriculture and forestry sectors retain an important place in our business profile, although the service sector, including food and drink industries, and the public sector still remain the most significant sector employers with 81.6%. Monmouthshire is certainly one of the leading food destination and producers in Wales, with food festival a substantial visitor attraction. The 2011 census reports the most significant sectors of employment for people aged 16-74 year olds are public administration, education and health at 30.8% and wholesale and retail at 16.2%.

In 2011, Monmouthshire had 663 active businesses per 10,000 population. This is the second highest level in Wales. 57 new businesses started through the help of the Council with turnover in excess of £4million and 200 jobs. 21 jobs have been safeguarded in the last year alone. Funding rose for start-up and existing companies is in excess of £1.5m and inward investment has created another 50 new jobs.

It is important to consider the type and size of our active businesses. We can do this by looking at business accommodation across Monmouthshire. The broad categories used by the valuation office agency are office, industrial, retail and other. This is generally done by counting the number of no-domestic properties in use and the floor space inmetres² to provide an idea of the profile of an area from a property and investment perspective.

As context, charts 20 and 21 show the percentage of Monmouthshire‟s businesses that fall into different industry types, comparing these to the comparable authorities in Wales and England. The majority of business units in Monmouthshire are classed as agriculture, forestry and farming, retail and professional, scientific and technical, followed by construction and business administration and support services. Chart 47: Percentage of business units by business industry, 2011 by Welsh comparators

Percentage of business units by type, 2011 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% Monmouthshire 25.0% Ceredigion 20.0% Pembrokeshire 15.0% Powys 10.0% Wales 5.0% 0.0%

Source: Local units by broad industrial group, ONS

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Chart 48: % of business units by 2011 by English comparators

Percentage of business units by type, 2011 25.00%

20.00% Monmouthshire 15.00% North Devon Herefordshire 10.00% York

5.00%

0.00%

Source: Local units by broad industrial group, ONS The number and rate at which new businesses start up and close can have a significant effect on the population of an area in terms of employment opportunities, benefit claimants and revenue generation. In 2007 there were 395 business births in Monmouthshire, a figure which dropped to 325 in 2011. Over the same time period, the number of business deaths decreased from 365 in 2007 to 350 in 2011. The overall active stock (the number of businesses that either had turnover or staff in any year) dropped slightly from 3,720 in 2007 to 3,770 in 2011.

Chart 49: Number of New & Closed Enterprises in Monmouthshire 2002- 2011 Number of New & Closed Enterprises 600

500

400

300

200 New Enterprises Closed Enterprises 100

0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Enterprise births and deaths, ONS

The financial well-being of our citizens is vital to a thriving county. Insolvency is the inability of a business or person to pay debts when they are due. In 2000, the individual insolvency rate per 10,000 adult population in Monmouthshire was 6.1 per 10,000, 1.1

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

per 10,000 less than the England and Wales value of 7.2. In 2011, it was 22.8 per 10,000, 4.3 per 10,000 less than the England and Wales value of 27.118.

Table 43: Non-domestic property profile for Monmouthshire

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Type Category 2000 Change Industrial Number 630 620 630 630 700 700 700 680 680 670 660 660 690 9.5% Office Number 430 430 430 430 420 410 430 460 470 490 540 550 520 20.9% Retail Number 910 910 910 910 910 890 890 890 890 880 890 890 890 -2.2% Other Number 310 310 310 310 300 310 310 310 310 310 310 320 320 3.2% All non-domestic properties 2,280 2,270 2,280 2,280 2,330 2,310 2,330 2,340 2,350 2,350 2,400 2,420 2,420 6.1% Floorspace in Industrial 1000 m2 616 650 668 680 691 651 636 640 659 658 644 613 638 3.6% Floorspace in Office 1000 m2 50 49 49 48 48 47 61 62 53 51 51 54 57 14.0% Floorspace in Retail 1000 m2 151 152 156 163 162 148 149 156 158 158 156 156 156 3.3% Floorspace in Other 1000 m2 74 75 75 75 67 67 68 69 69 69 70 71 71 -4.1% All non-domestic properties 891 926 948 966 968 913 914 927 939 936 921 894 922 3.5% Rateable Value Industrial (£) per m2 22 23 23 22 22 27 27 27 28 28 30 30 31 40.9% Rateable Value Office (£) per m2 62 62 62 62 62 65 59 59 67 67 77 77 78 25.8% Rateable Value Retail (£) per m2 74 76 74 72 72 90 90 89 89 89 109 108 108 45.9% Rateable Value Other (£) per m2 35 33 33 33 34 38 39 38 39 39 42 41 43 22.9% All non-domestic properties (Average) 48 49 48 47 48 55 54 53 56 56 65 64 65 Source: Valuation Office Agency, 2012, All counts are rounded to the nearest 10. Table 43 shows the non-domestic property profile for Monmouthshire since the year 2000. It is interesting to note a small overall reduction in retail but an increase in all other types of property. This could be down to a trend of converting smaller peripheral retail to residential when times are hard, and the rise in the local supermarket. This appears to be backed up by the fact that there seems to be an overall increase in floor space, so there are fewer larger shops now when compared to 2000.The rateable value for retail shows the most significant increase across all property types.

10.4 Technology

The ability to access and benefit from new digital technologies, such as the internet can have a real impact on the opportunities and services available to people, households and businesses. Access to digital technology may well be inversely proportional to levels of deprivation. It is obvious than for an area and its population to have the best chance to maximise its economic potential, it should have access to the newest technology. According to the Digital Inclusion, a Government Social Research paper published in 201121 based on research work carried out by Experian, Monmouthshire had the third highest rate of digital inclusion for adults in Wales, with 71.39% of all adults using the internet.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Table 44: Digital inclusion rates by local authority (estimates as of March 2011) % of adults 18+ Rank LA Digitally Included 1 Cardiff 74.45 2 Vale of Glamorgan 71.4 3 Monmouthshire 71.39 4 Ceredigion 69.48 5 Flintshire 68.58 6 Bridgend 68.45 7 Newport 68.42 8 Wrexham 67.48 9 Powys 67.46 10 Swansea 66.33 11 Denbighshire 65.34 12 Pembrokeshire 64.62 13 Torfaen 64.01 14 Conwy 63.66 15 Caerphilly 63.43 16 Gwynedd 63.28 17 Carmarthenshire 63.16 18 Anglesey 62.39 19 Rhondda Cynon Taf 61.07 20 Neath Port Talbot 59.09 21 Merthyr Tydfil 58.38 22 Blaenau Gwent 54.31 Source: Experian 2011

However, good performance is not uniform and there are areas of poor uptake. 27 of the 58 (47%) Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) in Monmouthshire are in the top quintile for access to the internet across the whole of Wales. This is the second highest rate for all local authority areas in Wales. Six LSOAs (Dewstow and Green Lane 1 and 2, Usk 1, Mardy 1, Lansdown and Overmonnow 2) are in the lowest quintile for access to the internet, all with less than 58% of adults accessing the internet (Price, Waterhouse, Coopers (2009) reported that household access to a computer and the internet improves educational performance of children. It is also interested to note that Monmouthshire Housing Association suggest that only 45% of their households have internet access.

British Telecom(BT)provides ADSL Max services to the area of Monmouthshire and is the most widespread form of broadband providing a service of up to 8 Mbps for downloading. Take up of Broadband across Monmouthshire is higher than average at 85% (excluding unbundled exchanges). This demonstrates strong demand throughout the county in the face of varying broadband service performance levels and speeds with only Abergavenny, Caldicot, Chepstow, Monmouth & Magor exchanges either upgraded by BT or unbundled by other service providers9.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Map 4: Broadband Speeds in Monmouthshire

Source: Local Broadband Networks Feasibility Study, March 2011

10.5 Tourism Monmouthshire has a range of traditional historical attractions, food, arts and crafts events, festivals and a beautiful landscape to encourage visits. The natural environment is one of Monmouthshire‟s primary assets, from its highest point at Chwarel y Fan to the extensive coastal lowlands on the Caldicot Levels. There are approximately 5198 foot paths covering 2196.5km which encourage walkers, cyclists and horse-riders. Tourism contributes £163.5 million to our local economy, 10.1% of local jobs and approximately 2.1 million people visit Monmouthshire each year, with events such as the Abergavenny food festival attracting significant visitors to the county.

It has two internationally recognised areas of natural beauty, Wye Valley area of outstanding natural beauty and section of the Brecon Beacons National Park. It is estimated that Monmouthshire has at least 26 surviving castle sites and indeed the density of castle building in this region has been claimed to be the greatest in any region in Britain, with more castles per square mile than anywhere else.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

10.6 Employment

In the period July 2011-June 2012, the proportion of economically active people in employment in Monmouthshire was 73.9%. This was the second highest rate in Wales and rose from 71.5% in September 2011. Between 2001 and 2011 the employment rate has been well above that for Wales as a whole and peaked at 76.8% in March 2007.The rate in Herefordshire is 73.2% and Gloucestershire73.5%.

Table 45: % of people economically active in employment by Local authority area. People in % of Economically Local Authority employment Active Powys 62,100 74 Monmouthshire 42,200 73.9 Flintshire 70,900 73.2 Wrexham 63,400 72.2 Anglesey 30,500 71.8 Conwy 46,700 70.9 Bridgend 60,600 70.7 Vale of Glamorgan 56,300 69.9 Denbighshire 42,200 69.5 Pembrokeshire 50,400 69.2 Newport 61,700 67.9 Carmarthenshire 78,000 67.8 Gwynedd 52,000 67.5 Torfaen 38,100 65.9 Cardiff 156,700 64.8 Caerphilly 71,600 64 Neath Port Talbot 55,200 62.7 Swansea 96,700 62.5 Ceredigion 32,500 62.2 Rhondda, Cynon, Taff 93,900 61.9 Merthyr Tydfil 22,200 61.6 Blaenau Gwent 25,700 58.7 Source: ONS annual population survey [Jul 2011-Jun 2012]

In the period July 2011-June 2012, the proportion of economically active people unemployment in Monmouthshire was 5.4%, of all local authority areas in Wales only Powys at 5.1% had a lower rate in Wales. The rate has fallen from a recent high of 6.2% in December 2009.

Occupations are classified according to the Standard Occupation Classification 2000. In Monmouthshire, 48.4% of people have an occupation in major groups 1-3, compared to 39.4% in Wales. These major groups cover occupations at the top end of the scale, with higher salaries, professional knowledge, experience and skills, and qualifications.

In 2011, Monmouthshire had the second lowest rate at 10.8%, of children living in workless households amongst the Welsh local authorities. Some caution must be applied when considering these data as the number of responses to the survey was low. The gap between the Wales average at 18.6% has narrowed from being 8.8 percentage

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment points below the Wales average in 2004 to being 7.8 percentage points below the Wales average in 2011.

10.7 Economic inactivity

The economically inactive population are people who are neither in employment nor unemployed. This group includes people who are students, looking after a home, retired or sick.61.39% of the people of Monmouthshire are of working age 16-64 years, slightly below the Wales rate of 63.42%. The rate in Monmouthshire is the fifth lowest of all local authority areas in Wales. In Monmouthshire, there were 11,500 people economically inactive during the period July 2011-June 2012. Of these, 2,700 (23.7%) of adults of working age were economically inactive because of long term sickness. This rate is below the Wales average of 27.3% and sixth best in Wales. Ceredigion has the lowest proportion at 15.3%. The proportion in Monmouthshire has fallen in recent times from a high of 27.9% in September 2005.

Table 46: Economic inactivity in working age adults due to long term sickness. Number of Economically Inactive % of Economically Inactive Local Authority due to long term sickness* due to long term sickness Merthyr Tydfil 4,100 41.4 Neath Port Talbot 10,500 39.2 Caerphilly 11,100 35.6 Blaenau Gwent 4,400 33.8 Bridgend 6,300 32.7 Rhondda, Cynon, Taff 14,600 32.1 Carmarthenshire 9,200 30.1 Torfaen 4,200 29.5 Newport 6,400 28.6 Pembrokeshire 5,000 28.0 Anglesey 2,700 27.0 Wrexham 5,000 26.8 Swansea 12,100 26.5 Denbighshire 3,800 26.2 Powys 4,400 26.0 Conwy 3,700 24.7 Monmouthshire 2,700 23.7 Vale of Glamorgan 4,200 22.9 Gwynedd 4,600 22.3 Flintshire 4,700 21.5 Cardiff 12,200 18.1 Ceredigion 2,600 15.3 Source: ONS annual population survey [Jul 2011-Jun 2012] Note: Numbers are for those aged 16-64 & % is a proportion of those economically inactive.

The range across Great Britain varies from 49.2% in Wear Valley to a low of 7.0% in Windsor and Maidenhead. Monmouthshire compares slightly favourably with our English neighbour Herefordshire.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Table 47: Economic inactivity in working age adults due to long term sickness, by area by English comparators Local Authority numbers % Herefordshire 6,000 25.5 Devon Not Available Not Available Monmouthshire 2,700 23.7 York 2,600 9.8 Source: ONS annual population survey [Jul 2011-Jun 2012] Note: Numbers are for those aged 16-64& % is a proportion of those economically inactive.

It is recommended when comparing economic inactivity rates between local authorities in Wales that the rates excluding students are used. This is because the student population is disproportionately distributed between local areas in Wales and non- working students are, by definition, classed as economically inactive.

When we compare the economic inactivity rates excluding students as at September 2012, Monmouthshire has the second lowest proportion of economically inactive adults aged 16-64 years at 18.8%

Table 48: Economic inactivity rates (excl. students) by Welsh local authority areas. Number of Economically % Economically Local Authority (excluding students) Inactive Powys 13,400 18.5 Monmouthshire 9,300 18.8 Wrexham 14,900 18.9 Anglesey 7,400 19.7 Newport 16,300 19.8 Cardiff 40,000 19.9 Conwy 11,700 20.0 Flintshire 17,700 20.3 Bridgend 16,600 21.1 Denbighshire 11,400 21.4 Torfaen 12,000 21.6 Pembrokeshire 14,200 22.1 Vale of Glamorgan 15,200 22.6 Gwynedd 15,300 22.8 Swansea 31,700 24.3 Merthyr Tydfil 8,000 24.5 Carmarthenshire 25,200 25.2 Caerphilly 26,100 25.3 Rhondda, Cynon, Taff 34,300 25.3 Blaenau Gwent 10,300 26.4 Ceredigion 10,500 26.4 Neath Port Talbot 21,400 27.0 Source: Annual Local Labour Force Survey / Annual Population Survey, Office for National Statistics, September 2012

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

In the same period, there were 78.5% of Monmouthshire‟s working age population who were economically active, the highest rate of all local authority areas in Wales. This rate has been gradually increasing in recent years with 73.9% in employment.

10.8 Benefit claimants The Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA) is payable to people under pensionable age who are available for, and actively seeking, work of at least 40 hours a week. In Monmouthshire the number of young people aged 18-24 years old claiming Job seekers allowance as at November 2012 was 7.8%.The number of young people aged 18-24 claiming JSA reached a peak of 10.2% in February 2010 but had decreased to 7.8% by November 2012. This is below the average rate for Wales, which stood at 8.0%

Chart 50: % of Monmouthshire young people on Job Seekers Allowance. 12

24 year JSA oldsclaiming year 24 0

% 18 %

Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12

Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12

May-10 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-11 May-12 May-06 Source: DWP benefit claimants It does appear to be more difficult for young people to secure employment. Monmouthshire has seen a steady increase in the number of young people aged 18-24 on JSA for over 12 months, from 5 in February 2008 to 85 in November 2012 and an overall increase in all numbers from 260 to 460 in the same period.

Generally, across all people aged 16-64 years old the total numbers of people claiming JSA has increased from a low of 721 (1.3%) in November 2003 to a recent high of 1619 (3.0%) in February 2012. Since that time, the number has decreased every month to 1450 (2.7%) as at November 2012. This is well below the national rate of 4.1%.

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Table 49: Monmouthshire People on Job Seekers Allowance by duration (November 2011) Age range and Period Monmouthshire Monmouthshire on Benefit (Numbers) (Percentage) Wales Aged 16 to 64 Total 1,450 2.7 4.1 Up to 6 months 880 1.6 2.3 Over 6 and up to 12 months 225 0.4 0.6 over 12 months 350 0.6 1.1 Aged 18 to 24 Total 460 7.8 8 Up to 6 months 315 5.4 5.3 Over 6 and up to 12 months 60 1 1.1 over 12 months 85 1.4 1.5 Aged 25 to 49 Total 715 2.7 4.4 Up to 6 months 405 1.6 2.4 Over 6 and up to 12 months 120 0.5 0.7 over 12 months 195 0.7 1.3 Aged 50 to 64 Total 270 1.4 2 Up to 6 months 150 0.8 1 Over 6 and up to 12 months 45 0.2 0.3 . over 12 months 70 0.4 0.7 Source:Source: OfficeONS claimant for National count - ageStatistics, duration NOMIS,JSAwith proportions Claimant count, November 2011 Table 50: Monmouthshire People by Claim Type (February 2012) Monmouthshire Monmouthshire Wales Claim Type (numbers) (%) (%) Total claimants 7,190 12.8 18.5 Job seekers 1,700 3.0 4.3 ESA and incapacity benefits 3390 6.0 9.0 Lone parents 480 0.8 1.6 Carers 670 1.2 1.6 Others on income related benefits 190 0.3 0.4 Disabled 640 1.1 1.4 Bereaved 130 0.2 0.2 Key out-of-work benefits† 5750 10.3 15.3 Source: DWP benefit claimants - working age client group. Notes: †Key out-of-work benefits includes the groups: job seekers, ESA and incapacity benefits, lone parents and others on income related benefits. See the Definitions and Explanations below for details 15.3 The new welfare reform is going to have a significant impact on our most vulnerable families. The 2011 Census shows that Monmouthshire has 40,078 households, of which approximately 13% live in social housing, and approximately 5,225 receive housing benefit. Best case scenario suggests between 35-40% of families in social housing accommodation will be negatively affected by the new welfare reforms. Certain household types are more likely to be disproportionately affected by the reforms, particularly the poorest families with children, non-working lone parents and workless couples with children.

The bedroom tax will also have an impact on under occupancy. Those that are considered to be under-occupying their accommodation will see a reduction in their housing benefit calculated by a reduction of14% of the total eligible rent for under- occupation by one bedroom, and 25% of the total eligible rent for under-occupation by two bedrooms or more. Monmouthshire Housing Association has approximately 3,492 88

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment properties providing a home to 6,881 people. This is 9.1% of the households in Monmouthshire. Currently 5.2% of these properties are overcrowded and 42.3% under occupied.

Council tax benefit is a government benefit that is currently paid to many low income households to help them meet the cost of their council tax bills. Approximately, 6888 (17%) of households in Monmouthshire currently receive council tax benefit.

10.9 Identified needs

To enable business and enterprise to prosper in Monmouthshire, we need:  Better access and performance of broadband services and communications.

 Better paid local employment opportunities.

 Graduates to want to return to live and work in Monmouthshire.

 To ensure that an appropriate range of finance is available for Monmouthshire businesses.

 To build on the services already being provided by Monmouthshire Enterprise and its partners to support the growth of new and existing enterprises.

 Availability of a suitable range of business premises.

 Retain more of the spend of visitors, citizens and businesses within Monmouthshire.

 To consider plans to develop and enhance the existing infrastructure in the region by fully participating in regional economic development

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

11 Outcome Eight: People have access to practical and flexible learning.

11.1 Overview

We want people in Monmouthshire to enjoy the opportunities that learning presents at all stages of their lives. It will be flexible and provide development opportunities across vocational and academic routes at all stages. The Welsh Government‟s seven core aims for children and young people have a strong focus on providing good quality education and training. They include a commitment to ensuring that all children and young:  Have a flying start in life and the best possible basis for their future growth and development; and  Have access to a comprehensive range of education, training and learning opportunities, including acquisition of essential personal and social skills The Welsh Government‟s Programme for Government also places a strong emphasis on education, with an aim to ‘help everyone reach their potential, reduce inequality, and improve economic and social well-being.’ The Programme for Government also focuses on adult education and training, by aiming to ‘…improve the skills of young people and families.’ 11.2 Pre-school Flying Start is the Welsh Government‟s targeted provision for young children and their families living in the most deprived areas of Wales. It is a combination of free quality, part-time childcare for 2-3 year olds, enhanced health visiting service, early language development and parenting programmes. In 2011/12, 93 children benefited from Flying Start childcare in Monmouthshire with the entitlement to 12.5 hours a week for 42 weeks. As at December 2012,the percentage of children aged 2,at or exceeding developmental norms was 87.7% and the percentage of children aged 3,at or exceeding developmental norms was 79.1%.

Monmouthshire is to expand Flying Start provision into the areas of West End, Severn 2 and part of Dewstow and Green Lane 1, providing childcare for around 18 children, enhanced health visiting services, early language development groups, incredible years programmes for babies and toddlers, a baby group and a nurture group. The same services will be available in Thornwell in 2014 on completion of the new school.

11.3 School performance In 2011-12, there are 44 schools in total in Monmouthshire, 32 maintained primary schools, four maintained secondary schools, one special school and seven independent schools. According to the 2012 schools census, there were 13,261 pupils on the pupil roll. Estyn provides the inspection and standards framework for the Welsh Government. This provides the best assessment of the education provision in a local authority area, with individual schools be assessed under a single inspection framework. Progress between primary and secondary schools is well below average. In 2012 in both key stages 3 and 4 progress on all indicators is in the bottom 25% except for English in key stage 3 which is below average. In key stage 2, performance in Welsh first language has declined over 90

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment the last two years. However, in 2012, performance in Welsh second language improved at a faster rate than in Wales as a whole in both key stage 2 and key stage 3. In 2011, the percentage of learners gaining a full qualification in Welsh second language in key stage 4 was above the Wales average.

11.4 Educational attainment A young person‟s education is vital to their long term outcomes. If they are able to reach their potential at school, their ability to gain employment and maintain a healthy life will improve. Key Stage 4, which measures a pupil‟s performance at 15 years of age, is the last assessment point in the statutory school age. We need to consolidate the recent upward trajectory at level 2 in Key Stage 4. Since 2006/7 level 2 performance at Key Stage 4 has increased from just over 54% to over 71% in 2010/11, where the Wales average performance was 67.3%. We are currently 7th in Wales. Table 51: Key Stage 4 Achievement by Local Authority areas. Key Stage 4 Level 2 Year Monmouthshire Powys Ceredigion Pembs Wales 2006/07 54.1 62.7 65.8 59.6 55.0 2007/08 57.7 66.6 61.6 60.8 58.0 2008/09 60.8 70.8 68.2 63.1 60.7 2009/10 64.7 69.2 66.4 62.4 63.8 2010/11 71.2 74.0 71.4 68.3 67.3 Key Stage 4 Level 2 including English/Welsh and Maths 2006/07 Not Available Not Available Not Available Not Available 44.4 2007/08 46.2 55.3 47.3 47.7 44.4 2008/09 50.0 60.4 51.6 50.0 47.2 2009/10 50.7 58.0 48.9 44.9 49.4 2010/11 51.3 58.1 55.2 51.0 50.1 Source: School Examination Performance Information, Welsh Government The new national comparator is level 2 including English or Welsh and Maths. Here, our achievement was 51.3% for all pupils in 2011 where it was 50% on average across Wales. We are 10th in Wales and again we recognise this needs to improve significantly. Attainment levels in schools are assessed nationally at the end of each of the four Key stages. The first three Key stages are based on teacher assessment, with Key stage four is based on external examination results. Key stage 2 assesses pupils in year six, which is their last year in primary school. In 2011, 82.5% of pupils in Monmouthshire reached at least Level 4 in their Key stage 2 assessment. This rate was the third highest in Wales, only exceeded by Ceredigion of the comparator areas, and Gwynedd nationally. In line with every other local authority area, the rate has increased over the past four years in Monmouthshire, albeit with a one year drop in 2010. 11.5 Impact of poverty on educational attainment A second major challenge in relation to more vulnerable pupils is the need to mitigate the impact of poverty on performance. We can see that on average, children and young people from less well-off backgrounds underperform compared to others, as evidenced by using free school meals and children in need data. The entitlement to Free School Meals (FSM) is one indicator often used as a proxy measure for identifying children living in poverty. In 2010/11, 11.8% of all 5-15 year old pupils in maintained primary, secondary and special schools in Monmouthshire were entitled to FSM. This rate was

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment the second lowest of all local authority areas in Wales, with only Powys having a lower rate. Chart 51: % Pupils aged 5-15 years entitled to Free School Meals, by area. % of pupils aged 5-15 years entitled to Free School meals 25

20 Monmouthshire Ceredigion 15 Pembrokeshire

Powys % 10 Wales

Source: School Census Survey 2012. Educational attainment for some of our most vulnerable children continues to show cause for concern. In 2011, the percentage of pupils receiving free school meals achieving level 2 including English and Maths at Key Stage 4 was 15.1%, where the percentage of pupils not receiving free school meals achieving level 2 including English and Maths at Key Stage 4 was 51.3%. The 2011 Children in Need Census showed that there were 488 children in need in Monmouthshire. These are children and young people from our most vulnerable families. Key stage 2 attainment amongst Monmouthshire children in need is 67% compared to 81% throughout Monmouthshire. At key stage 3 Monmouthshire children in need attainment is 35% compared to 72% across Monmouthshire. At key stage 4 level 1 55% of Monmouthshire‟s children in need achieved the equivalent of 5 GCSEs at grade A*-G, the rate in Monmouthshire was 92%. At key stage 4 level 2 27% of Monmouthshire‟s children in need achieved the equivalent of 5 GCSEs at grade A*-C, compared to 71% across Monmouthshire. Chart 52: Key stage performance of Children in Need against all pupils.

% Attainment at Key Stages

100

0 Key Stage 2 Key Stage 3 Key Stage 4 L1 Key Stage 4 L2

Monmouthshire CIN Monmouthshire

Source: Monmouthshire Children In Need Census 2011 92

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Although, attainment in each key stage assessment for children in need was lower than the average for all pupils in Monmouthshire, there are encouraging signs with some of our most vulnerable children performing much better than expected when compared to the results for all children in need across Wales. Chart 53: Key stage performance of Children In Need against Wales.

% Attainment at Key Stages

80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Key Stage 2 Key Stage 3 Key Stage 4 L1 Key Stage 4 L2

Monmouthshire CIN Wales CIN

Source: Monmouthshire Children In Need Census 2011 There is no doubt that children from households in the most deprived parts of Monmouthshire do not achieve as well as the rest of Monmouthshire. The results below highlight the impact that families living in some of the most deprived areas in Monmouthshire has on educational attainment with parts of Bulwark, Dewstow, Overmonnow and Thornwell all achieving well below the average performance for Monmouthshire. Chart 54: Key Stage 2 Educational Attainment at Level 2 - 5 or more GSCEs at A*-C incl. English & Maths by 4 of Monmouthshire’s most deprived areas.

40 2006/07

30 2007/08 2008/09 20 2009/10

10 2010/11

Source: Monmouthshire Local Education department 2010/11

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

11.6 Absenteeism There is also a recognised link between attendance and attainment for pupils. Welsh Government data from 20092 showed that as absenteeism increased, the percentage of pupils achieving the expected level at each Key stage decreased. Continued absenteeism can also affects a child‟s ability to develop peer friendships and social skills, and disengagement from education can be a pre-cursor to social exclusion and poor outcomes in future life. In 2010/11, 5.6% of all sessions in primary schools in Monmouthshire were missed due to absenteeism. This rate has remained almost unchanged for the last four years. It is currently the lowest rate of all local authority areas in Wales. In 2010/11, 7.8% of all sessions in secondary schools in Monmouthshire were missed due to absenteeism. This rate has dropped in each of the last three years from a rate of 9.4% in 2007/08. The current rate is higher than that for Ceredigion, but lower than the other comparator areas and the national rate. Only four local authorities in Wales, including Ceredigion, have a lower rate of absenteeism in their secondary schools than Monmouthshire. Table 52: Absenteeism in Primary schools, by Welsh comparators. Area 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Monmouthshire 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 Ceredigion 6.5 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.7 Pembrokeshire 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.3 6.8 Powys 6 6 6 6.1 6.4 Wales 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.7 Source: Welsh Government, StatsWales

Table 53: Absenteeism in Secondary schools, by Welsh comparators. Area 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Monmouthshire 8.4 9.4 8.2 8 7.8 Ceredigion 9.2 8.4 8.2 8.3 7.5 Pembrokeshire 8.2 9.1 8.9 9.3 8.7 Powys 9.4 8.6 8.7 8.3 8.5 Wales 9.3 9 9 8.9 8.6 Source: Welsh Government, StatsWales This data is also available at Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) level, amalgamated into three year bands. This shows that there is a large variation between areas within Monmouthshire (see Annex C). In primary schools for the period 2008-10, the rate of absenteeism ranged from 8.5% in Overmonnow2 to 4.1% in Cantref1. 33 LSOAs had improved their absenteeism rate since 2004-07, while 25 had seen no change or an increase in their rate. In secondary schools for the period 2008-10, the rate of absenteeism ranged from 14.5% in Mardy1 to 4.6% in St. Kingsmark1. 32 LSOAs had improved their absenteeism rate since 2004-07, while 26 had seen no change or an increase in their rate. 16 LSOAs in Monmouthshire (27.5% of all LSOAs in the local authority area) are in the highest

2Children and Young People's Well being Monitor 2011, Welsh Government

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment quintile for all LSOAs in Wales for an increase in absenteeism between the 2004-07 level and the 2008-10 level3. 11.7 Young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) Pupils who leave school and do not enter employment, education or training are classified as „NEET‟. The implications for young people and the economy around NEETs have increased during the current economic climate. These implications go beyond an economic impact on their lives, and can have a negative affect their health and lifestyles as well. Tables 26 and 27 show the percentage of young people at years 11 and 13 who are NEET. The percentage of year 11 pupils who end up NEET has reduced in Monmouthshire for the past four years. Although it is below the national rate, it is higher than its three comparator areas. The rate of year 13 pupils in Monmouthshire who are NEET is higher than all three comparator areas and the national average. However, establishing a trend is more difficult as the rate has risen twice and dropped twice in the past four years. It is below the 2009 rate but above the rate experienced in 2007 and 2008. Table 54: % of Year 11 pupils not in education, employment or training. Area 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Monmouthshire 5.60 5.27 4.99 3.93 3.82 Ceredigion 2.58 3.77 2.27 2.33 3.32 Pembrokeshire 4.71 6.41 4.85 4.80 3.81 Powys 5.31 3.00 2.12 2.90 3.05 Wales 6.87 7.14 5.70 5.37 4.40 Source: Pupil Destination Survey, Welsh Government

Table 55: % of Year 13 pupils not in education, employment or training.

Area 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Monmouthshire 3.39 3.87 9.62 6.60 7.72 Ceredigion 4.70 5.91 4.71 4.41 7.57 Pembrokeshire 2.74 3.15 4.03 4.96 5.24 Powys 1.69 3.57 1.69 3.04 3.51 Wales 4.59 5.63 6.64 6.61 6.39 Source: Pupil Destination Survey, Welsh Government 11.8 Adult education, training and skills The ability of adults to gain qualifications after their statutory education finishes can improve their ability to gain and maintain employment and maximise their earning potential. It is obvious that those adults with no qualifications are at a competitive disadvantage in the jobs market compared to those with qualifications. 20.7% of people aged 16 and over in Monmouthshire had no qualification in 2011. This is the joint third lowest proportion in Wales, and compares favourably to the all Wales proportion of 25.9%. Of the people with a qualification 12.6% in Monmouthshire have the highest level of qualification which is less than the welsh average of 13.3%. Our full time student

3 A full list of absenteeism at primary and secondary schools by LSOAs is in Annex B

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment population aged 18 to 74 is low when compared to the rest of Wales, with 1,877 (2.5%) full-time students aged 18 to 74. Table 56: % of people aged 18+ with No Qualifications & students population. Local Authority Full-time students: Age Full-time students: Age No Highest level of 18 to 74: Economically 18 to 74: Economically Qualifications Qualification active: In employment active: Unemployed Ceredigion 19.8 10.5 3.3 1.7 Vale of Glamorgan 20.5 12.9 1.2 0.2 Cardiff 20.7 11.0 3.7 1.0 Monmouthshire 20.7 12.6 1.0 0.2 Gwynedd 23.2 11.8 2.3 0.7 Flintshire 23.5 15.4 1.4 0.2 Swansea 23.9 12.3 2.8 0.7 Isle of Anglesey 24.2 12.7 1.3 0.2 Pembrokeshire 24.6 13.6 1.0 0.1 Powys 24.8 12.6 0.9 0.1 Denbighshire 25.4 14.0 1.2 0.3 Conwy 25.6 13.1 1.3 0.2 Wales 25.9 13.3 1.8 0.4 Wrexham 26.7 13.9 1.8 0.4 Carmarthenshire 26.8 13.1 1.3 0.2 Newport 27.0 14.1 1.9 0.6 Bridgend 28.3 14.0 1.2 0.2 Torfaen 28.9 15.0 1.2 0.3 Neath Port Talbot 30.9 14.4 1.2 0.2 Caerphilly 31.4 14.9 1.1 0.2 Rhondda Cynon Taf 31.8 14.1 1.8 0.5 Merthyr Tydfil 34.3 14.3 1.3 0.3 Blaenau Gwent 36.0 15.8 1.0 0.3 Source: Office for National Statistics, Census 2011

Tables 57 and 58 show the different levels of qualifications that the working age population have attained in Monmouthshire in 2011. At all three levels, Monmouthshire performs well against its comparator areas and the national average. This is also the case against the English comparators, although it is behind York at all three levels. Table 57: % of working age population attaining different qualification levels, 2011 by Welsh comparators. Area NVQ2+ NVQ3+ NVQ4+ Monmouthshire 75.5 57.3 36.7 Ceredigion 76.0 58.4 32.5 Pembrokeshire 67.3 48.0 24.3 Powys 67.1 51.4 30.8 Wales 68.6 50.1 29.3 Source: Welsh Government, StatsWales, Table 58: % of working age population attaining different qualification levels, 2011 by English comparators. 96

Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment

Area NVQ2+ NVQ3+ NVQ4+ Monmouthshire 75.5 57.3 36.7 Devon 72.4 54.0 32.0 Herefordshire 64.3 47.6 28.8 York 77.1 60.6 40.8 England 69.5 52.4 32.7 Source: Welsh Government, StatsWales, Monmouthshire Adult and Community Education Service run a wide variety of courses at community education centres around Monmouthshire. There are six centres across the county where people can access a wide range of adult education courses, and coleg Gwent has a location in Usk. Attendance during 2011/12 increased by 5% from 2276 in 2010/11 to 2390. Table 59: Attendance at Adult Education Centres in Monmouthshire.

Age and Sex 2010/11 % 2011/12 % Female attendance 1569 69% 1700 71% Male Attendance 623 27% 667 28% Not Known 84 4% 23 1% Age <20 74 3% 78 3% Age group >20 and <40 624 27% 794 33% Age group 40> and <60 849 37% 857 36% Age 60+ 729 32% 661 28% Total Attendance 2276 100% 2390 100% Source: Adult and Community Education Service. 11.9 Play opportunities for children Play is the elemental learning process by which humankind has developed. Children exhibit a behavioural imperative and instinctive desire to play. It has contributed significantly to the evolutionary and developmental survival of our species. Children use play in the natural environment to learn of the world they inhabit with others. It is the very process of learning and growth, and as such all that is learnt through it is of benefit to the child37. In Monmouthshire, we intend to ensure all our communities provide the right level and type of play opportunities for our children. The Play Sufficiency Audit will provide the baseline data on what is currently available and identify the gaps in provision which need to be met. The specific Play needs for Monmouthshire are identified in Appendix 4.

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11.10 Identified needs

To access practical and flexible learning we need:

 To redesign our schools and make them more fit for purpose.

 To offer a more flexible education system that meets the needs of the pupil, their families and employers.

 Improved access to parenting skills.

 Improved access to adult education and learning.

 Improved access to education for vulnerable groups.

 To explore inter-generational connections to support young people.

 To overcome transport as a barrier to further education.

 To address key factors to underachievement.

 Improved „life skills‟ to be taught to young people, for example how to get mortgages and how to budget

 To ensure children and young people have access to flexible and appropriate play opportunities.

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12. Outcome Nine: People protect and enhance the environment.

12.1 Overview We want both the built and rural environment in Monmouthshire to be protected and enhanced; protecting habitats and making sure that all benefit from our natural resource. Monmouthshire‟s natural environment is an asset which requires sustained protection and enhancement. People need to enjoy the environment and partner organisations need to consider how we can improve our use of the natural assets. The Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) includes a physical environment domain comprised of indicators on air emissions, air quality, flood risk and proximity to waste disposal and industrial sites. WIMD 2011 shows that of the 58 small areas (LSOAs) in Monmouthshire, 28% were in the most deprived 20% small areas in Wales in terms of physical environment, an indication of the potential risk to these areas.

Each of Monmouthshire‟s comparator authorities had a lower amount of LSOAs which were in the most deprived 20% of Wales overall. Ceredigion had 4%; Powys had 8% and Pembrokeshire 4%.

12.2 Ecological footprint

The ecological footprint is estimated in global hectares per capita, and the carbon footprint in tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) per capita. When we consider Monmouthshire with the rest of Wales, we do not compare very well. Our ecological footprint is 5.36 compared to 5.03 in Wales and our carbon footprint is 12.36 compared to 11.6 in Wales (See Table 60).

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Table 60: Ecological and Carbon Footprints for Wales Area Ecological Footprint Carbon Footprint (gha/capita) (tonnes CO2/capita) UK 5.30 12.08 Wales 5.03 11.60 Monmouthshire 5.36 12.36 Anglesey Isle of 5.24 12.27 Blaenau Gwent 4.60 10.67 Bridgend 4.98 11.53 Caerphilly 4.76 10.90 Cardiff 5.05 11.74 Carmarthenshire 5.01 11.35 Ceredigion 5.40 12.41 Conwy 5.10 11.83 Denbighshire 5.11 11.82 Flintshire 5.12 11.65 Gwynedd 5.22 12.05 Merthyr Tydfil 4.70 10.96 Monmouthshire 5.36 12.36 Neath Port Talbot 4.92 11.41 Newport 4.96 11.39 Pembrokeshire 5.20 11.97 Powys 5.35 12.26 Rhondda Cynon Taff 4.79 11.11 Swansea 5.03 11.59 The Vale of Glamorgan 5.02 11.37 Torfaen 5.05 11.90 Wrexham 4.97 11.39 Source: Stockholm Environment Institute

12.3 Green spaces and environmental quality

It is crucial to celebrate and enhance the heritage, cultural, environmental and community value of our green spaces in Monmouthshire. The benefits to protecting these areas are obvious. They attract visitors, provide a thriving wildlife habitat with more evidence that living near a 'green space' has health benefits. Access to green spaces and nature is generally very good, but more than 1 in 5 people don‟t have accessible green space within short walking distance of their home.

Monmouthshire has large areas of accessible natural green space, currently exceeding the green space standard of 2 hectares per 1000 of population set by the Countryside Council for Wales (CCW). However, access to this greens pace varies, and only 76% of the population live within 400metres walking distance of their nearest green space, when CCW recommends that this should be available for everyone.

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Table 61: Environmental Measure for Monmouthshire. Indicator Data

Number of accessible natural green space sites in 723 Monmouthshire (in the search area) over 0.25 hectares The area of accessible natural green space in 8,098 hectares Monmouthshire, within 2km of a settlement.

The extent of accessible natural green space per 95 hectares per 1,000 1,000 population. population

Percentage of the population who live within 400 m 76% walking distance from their nearest area of natural green space of any size. Percentage of the population living within 2 km of a 20 93% ha area of accessible natural green space.

Percentage of the population living within 5 km of a 93% 100 ha area of accessible natural green space.

Source: Gwent Wildlife

It should also be noted that the quality of the natural environment makes a significant contribution to quality of life in Monmouthshire. Not only does it contribute to the tourism industry, but it also underpins our agriculture, water and air quality. Biodiversity can contribute to flood alleviation and even property values. It also forms a part of our cultural heritage, and has a significant impact on physical and mental health.

Table 62: Rights of Way Status of Path % of Network Total KM Bridleway 4% 71 Footpath 91% 1,499 Restricted Byways 5% 84.5

Byway 0% 1.5 Total km of PROW in Monmouthshire (excluding BBNP) 1,656km

Total km of PROW in Wales 33,200km

Monmouthshire also has one Country Park at Caldicot and 14 other countryside service sites that are spread around the county. These provide access for walking, running, kite flying, picnicking and many other activities. Other County Council land holdings also allow further countryside access opportunities.

In Monmouthshire there are about 150 hectares of mainly rural commons, which are designated as “Open Access” sites. In addition, the Forestry Commission Wales has dedicated 3,550 hectares of woodlands for access. Access for people with mobility and visual impairment is improving, but there is still a lot to be done. The Rights of Way 101

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Improvement Plan identifies the need to maintain and improve the rights of way network for all users through a number of key actions, and also identifies the benefits of good countryside access, including health and local economy.

In 2010-11, 53% of footpaths and other rights of way in Monmouthshire were considered easy to use by members of the general public, this compares to 55% across Wales. As a rural county Monmouthshire is vulnerable to the illegal deposit of any waste onto land or a highway that has no licence to accept it. Illegal dumps of waste or flying tipping can vary in scale and the type of waste involved. However, Monmouthshire continues to see a significant decline in the number of reported incidents each year. There were 846 in 2006-07 with a 41% decrease to 599 in 2011-12. Table 63: % of reported fly tipping incidents cleared within 5 working days.

Area 2009/10 2010/11 20111/12 Monmouthshire 72% 79% 81% Ceredigion 95% 92% 93% Pembrokeshire --- 97% 97% Powys 97% 92% 91% Wales 94% 95% 91%

Source: National Strategic Indicators, Welsh Government

Table 64: Reported incidents of fly tipping in Wales 2007 - 2012

Area 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Wales 54841 61995 55349 48179 41750 36411 Isle of Anglesey 1530 2613 1999 1585 1045 801 Gwynedd 1034 878 541 511 648 527 Conwy 1328 1336 1580 1009 1361 1055 Denbighshire 1086 991 3793 5189 2515 2249 Flintshire 958 903 746 785 697 911 Wrexham 706 993 2116 3279 1759 1022 Powys 855 1584 2435 2033 1614 551 Ceredigion 441 480 356 317 327 270 Pembrokeshire 727 819 660 693 634 732 Carmarthenshire 1649 1215 1487 1619 1542 1516 Swansea 7401 7323 5081 4042 2902 2003 Neath Port Talbot 1631 1557 1049 833 1137 2107 Bridgend 1074 2042 482 664 827 684 Vale of Glamorgan 2630 1546 1391 1598 1388 979 Rhondda Cynon Taff 3478 3257 3950 3961 4448 3864 Merthyr Tydfil 1547 1482 1567 1354 850 1128 Caerphilly 3116 2725 2195 1560 2680 1618 Blaenau Gwent 285 394 381 230 237 177 Torfaen 594 871 795 746 361 316 Monmouthshire 846 812 837 659 645 599 Newport 133 1637 3455 4015 2648 2014 Cardiff 21792 26537 18453 11497 11485 11288 Source: Welsh Government, StatsWales

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Chart 55 shows the rate of deliberate grassland, woodland and crop fires during 2010/11 where Monmouthshire recorded the highest rate out of the English comparable authorities. The overall rate in Monmouthshire was 161 fires per 100,000 population. There is the suggestion that as climate change gets worse with hotter drier summers we could experience more fires.

Chart 55: Rate of deliberate grassland, woodland and crop fires 2010/11. English comparators

Source: Communities and Local Government Chart 56 highlights that the rate of deliberate grassland, woodland and crop fires during 2010/11 in Monmouthshire is second highest out of the Welsh comparator authorities. The rate in Monmouthshire was above that of Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire but below that of Powys.

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Chart 56: Rate of grassland, woodland and crop fires 2010/11. Welsh comparators

Source: Communities and Local Government

12.4 Lakes and rivers

The rivers, lakes and coastal waters are an important part of our landscape they support wildlife, tourism, industry and recreation. The quality of our water has improved dramatically, but there is still more to be done.

There are two main rivers the wye which enters the severn estuary at Chepstow and the river Usk. Both rivers are designated sites of special scientific interest (SSSI). The Usk contains estuary with mudflats and salt marsh, lagoons, bog and marsh, varied grassland and woodland habitats along its course. Its wildlife and vegetation is diverse and includes salmon, trout, otters, twaite, shad, lamprey, perch, sea trout, chub, dace and roach as well as kingfishers, herons and other wildfowl and bird life. Dippers can be seen upriver along with red kite. The river wye is the fifth longest river in Britain and an important migration route and wildlife corridor, as well as a stated key breeding area for a significant number of nationally and internationally important species. The Environment Agency carries out a number of tests and inspections of the natural environment. The results from their water bodies‟ status summary are shown below in Table 65. When shown as percentage rates for each ecological category, Monmouthshire has a slightly higher rate of water bodies classed as „moderate‟ or „poor‟ compared to Wales, although the rate of water bodies classified as „good‟ is higher than the national rate.

Ecological status is shown for all surface water bodies. Ecological status includes biological elements such as invertebrates and fish as well as supporting physico- chemical elements such as phosphates and nitrates. Chemical assessment of water bodies is risk-based. Not all water bodies require assessment. Chemical monitoring looks for priority substances such as mercury that have been identified as presenting a significant risk to or via the aquatic environment under the Water Framework Directive.

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Table 65: Number of lakes and rivers achieving good ecological status in Monmouthshire, 2011 Water Body No. of Chemical Status Ecological Status Category Water Bodies Failing to Does not Good achieve require High Good Moderate Poor Bad good Assessment Coastal 0 Groundwater 7 6 1 Lake 1 1 1 River 34 5 1 28 14 15 5 Transitional 3 2 1 3 Source: Environment Agency Wales, Water Framework Directive: Water Bodies Status Summary (Baseline 2009) for Monmouthshire Flooding is one of the greatest natural threats to the people, economy and environment of Wales. The potential economic risk of flooding to residential properties, commercial and industrial premises and to key infrastructure is substantial. In addition to the monetary impact, flooding and flood risk can have a significant impact on the quality of life of citizens in the area. The Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation 2011 Physical Environment domain was underpinned by four indicators. One of the indicators was flood risk, and the scoring calculations were based on the frequency of flooding in the area. They also took into account the different levels of risk and the flood defences in the area. Each Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) was assigned a score for its relative flood risk. Of the 58 LSOAs which make up Monmouthshire, 20 LSOAs had 75% or more households within them that were at risk of flooding. Chart 57 highlights that overall 11% of homes in Monmouthshire are at risk of flooding which equates to 7493 properties in total. The majority of these homes are at moderate risk of flooding (3969 homes). A less significant amount is considered to be at low risk of flooding (2364 homes). A total of 1146 homes are considered to be in significant risk of flooding which equates to a total of 1.7% of the total homes in Monmouthshire.

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Chart 57:% of homes at risk of flooding in Monmouthshire, 2012

Percentage of homes at risk of flooding, Monmouthsire 2012

4 % 3

0 Significant risk Moderate risk Low risk

Source: Infobase, Cymru

The overall risk to homes in Monmouthshire is similar to the national average, but higher than the comparator areas in Wales. The number of houses at risk of flooding is as much a reflection of the geography of an area as much as it is of planning policy and house building strategy. What is perhaps more important is how much remedial work is completed to reduce the level of flooding for existing and new properties

Chart 58: Percentage of homes at risk of flooding in Monmouthshire, 2012

Percentage of homes at risk of flooding, 2012

6 % Significant risk Moderate risk 4 Low risk 2 Overall risk

Source: Infobase, Cymru

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12.5 Natural beauty Monmouthshire‟s natural environment is its biggest asset. The Brecon Beacons National Park and the Wye Valley are two areas nationally recognised as places of outstanding natural beauty. Monmouthshire also has extensive heritage sites and areas of historical significance with an estimated 26 castle sites.

Part 2 of the Register of Landscapes, Parks and Gardens of Special Historic Interest in Wales identifies the following landscapes within the plan area: • Blaenavon • Gwent Levels • Lower Wye Valley

The Monmouthshire UDP designated four areas as Special Landscape Areas (SLA), covering a total area of 40,559 hectares and accounting for around 55% of the total local planning area within Monmouthshire. A study commissioned for the Local Development Plan recommended that five large areas were designated as Special Landscape Areas (TACP July 2010, Designation of Special Landscape Areas). These covered the majority of the county, reflecting the inherent value of the Monmouthshire landscape. In the draft LDP this approach was not adopted and an approach based on the LANDMAP Landscape Character Assessment is used instead.

The area of the Brecon Beacons National Park within Monmouthshire is 12000 hectares. The Wye Valley AONB in Monmouthshire is about

12.6 Wildlife Monmouthshire has major biodiversity and nature conservation resources, a number of which are internationally or nationally recognised. The Monmouthshire Local Planning Authority (LPA) area contains the following resources:

 Severn Estuary designated as a Special Area for Conservation (SAC), Special Protection Area, Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) and a Ramsar Site (Wetland of international importance).  Four other Special Areas of Conservation (SAC) – namely the River Wye, the River Usk, the Wye Valley woodlands and the Wye Valley bat sites.  49 nationally designated Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSIs) – covering some 2,087 hectares. Most are woodland or grassland sites with other designated for their wetland or geological interest.  Two National Nature Reserves – Fiddler‟s Elbow (woodland) and Lady Park Wood.  Local Nature Reserve at Cleddon Bog.  Approximately 650 non-statutory Sites of Importance for Nature Conservation (SINCs) predominantly in relation to grassland and ancient and semi-natural woodland areas.

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 Populations of European Protected Species, including dormouse, otter, great crested newt and various species of bat.  Populations of UK Protected species, including the adder, barn owl and water vole.  Populations of other species of conservation concern such as lapwing and greater butterfly orchid.

Action needed to manage and enhance biodiversity in Monmouthshire is identified in the Local Biodiversity Action Plan, which lists the following local priorities for action and species and habitats of local importance.

Table 66: Local priorities for action and species and habitats of local importance. General action plans LBAP Species LBAP habitats  Public Awareness  Dormice  Species rich grassland  Biological Information  Lapwing and floodplain pastures and Recording  Nightjar  Boundary and linear features  Pink waxcap fungus  Heathland  Olive earth tongue fungus  Veteran trees and traditional orchards  Great crested newt  The built environment  Silver washed fritillary and green spaces butterfly  Woodlands  Argent and sable moth

 Waved carpet moth  Dormouse  Lesser horseshoe bat  Greater horseshoe bat  Greater butterfly orchid  Spreading bellflower Source: Monmouthshire Biodiversity Action Plan 12.7 Waste and recycling

Monmouthshire is committed to producing less waste and recycling more. This is a key theme in building a sustainable community and reducing the negative environmental impact of traditional methods of waste disposal .Monmouthshire provides a fortnightly kerbside waste collection service to all domestic properties and encourage residents to recycle more by using the red, purple, green and blue kerb side recycling service on a weekly basis.

In 2011-12, Monmouthshire achieved a municipal waste recycling or composted rate of 54.9%, the aim is to reach 70% by 2024-25. Five years ago we were sending 36,000 tonnes of waste to landfill each year with just over 30% being recycled or composted. We have also seen the amount of household waste collected per person fall from 498.8 kg per person in 2010-11 to 473kg in 2011-12.The overall rate of municipal waste being

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Chart 59: Percentage of municipal waste recycled or composted by year

Percentage of municipal waste recycled or composted by year

Monmouthshire

Ceredigion % Powys Pembrokeshire Wales

Source: Welsh Government, StatsWales Moving forward the Prosiect Gwyrdd project offers a long term and sustainable way of treating residual waste. In 2016 Prosiect Gwyrdd will provide a facility that will turn waste into much needed heat and energy and the recycling we collect will be able to be manufactured back into products for consumers. This will not only save on depleting natural resources but will help our economic regeneration

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12.8 Identified needs

The process for the identification of local needs starts by using the available data to analyse and highlight states, trends, and patterns of greatest concern in the local population. The data analysis identified a number of key issues which were then presented to our key stakeholders at four challenge sessions throughout the county. We also sort the views and opinions of the public. These views and opinions helped inform the identified needs below:

For our environment to be protected, we need:

 To enable people to enjoy more of Monmouthshire.

 To realise the potential to partner-up with neighbouring destinations.

 Brand Monmouthshire as a destination to visit.

 Better use of natural assets for outdoor pursuits and activities.

 To build resilience to combat the impact of climate change.

 To produce less waste and recycle more.

 To reduce CO2 emissions and promote a green economy.

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13. References 1. Health Needs Assessment support (2010): Key small area indicators, Aneurin Bevan Health Board. Public Health Wales Observatory.

2. Children in Need Census (2011), Welsh Government.

3. Local area summary statistics: Monmouthshire, Contextual data report, (May 2012), Welsh Statistics.

4. Director of Public Health Annual Report (2011), Aneurin Bevan Health Board.

5. Children and Young Peoples Partnership Review and Update (2008-10).

6. Young People‟s Substance Misuse (2010) Monmouthshire Needs Assessment.

7. Alcohol Misuse in Monmouthshire, Stronger Communities Select report, 2011, February 2011.

8. Welsh Health Survey 2009 and 2010, Welsh Government Statistical Bulletin, September 2011.

9. Local Broadband Networks Feasibility Study, Disconnected Wales& The Community Broadband Network, March 2012.

10. Cordis Bright Report „Bullying Amongst Children and Young People in Monmouthshire‟ (2009).

11. Young People‟s Safeguarding Consultation 2009/2010

12. Alcohol attributable admissions to hospital 2007-2009, Public Health Wales Observatory.

13. NOMIS Official labour market statistics – NOMIS Local authority profile at https://www.nomisweb.co.uk.

14. Stockholm Environment Institute, Footprint Results For Local Authorities, With background methodology and explanation, October 2008.

15. Older people indicators 2012, Aneurin Bevan Health Board, Public Health Wales Observatory.

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16. Daffodil website http://www.daffodilcymru.org.uk/

17. Office of National Statistics, Census 2011.

18. The Insolvency Service, Office for National statistics, 2011.

19. Fuel Poverty modelling, University of Bristol.

20. Nationwide (House Price benchmarks, First time Buyer House Price ratio), September 2012, http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/

21. Digital Inclusion: Analysis Package. Government Social Research and Welsh Government, 2011.

22. Welsh Government, http://statswales.wales.gov.uk

23. National Transport Plan, Baseline Report, 2010.

24. Delta Rail, Station Usage 2009-10, report for the Office of Rail Regulation Station.

25. Monmouthshire Community Safety Partnership, Strategic Needs Assessment, October 2011

26. Regional Intelligence Unit for Wales, Profile of Mephedrone Use & Supply in Wales, September 2012.

27. Lifestyle and Health, Aneurin Bevan Health Board, Public Health Wales Observatory, 2010.

28. National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence, Press release, New NICE guidance on reducing differences in the uptake of immunisations, 2009.

29. Public Health Wales, Aneurin Bevan Health Board, Oral Health report March 2012.

30. UK-wide physical activity guidelines, Department of Health, July 2011.

31. Monmouthshire County Council Joint Housing Land Availability Study for 2012.

32. 'Working Together to Reduce Harm', Welsh Governement,

33. Monmouthshire County Council Rights of Way Improvement Plan (RoWIP) – 2007 112

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33. Designation of Special Landscape Areas, TACP – 2010 (Commissioned by MCC as an LDP study)

34. Monmouthshire Greenspace Study, Environment Systems Ltd – 2010 (Commissioned by MCC as an LDP study)

35. Monmouthshire County Council Draft Deposit Local Development Plan, (September 2011)

36. Monmouthshire Local Biodiversity Action Plan, (as seen on the Biodiversity Action Reporting System (versions 1 and 2)

37. Welsh Government Play Policy, http://wales.gov.uk/topics/educationandskills/publications/guidance/3291781/?lan g=en

38. General Lifestyle Survey Overview, A report on the 2010 General Lifestyle Survey, Steven Dunstan, Office for National Statistics 2010

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Annex A – Needs Assessment Triangle

*Data Analysis Data -Trends & Patterns Analysis -Direction of Travel -Specialisation

Needs Assessment Process

Research Engagement

*Listening Tools -Voice *Evidence -What works (Local) -Best practice -Various methods -What works (National) -Innovation (New)

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Annex B – Comparator Authorities

It was necessary to consider Monmouthshire against areas with a similar profile in both England and Wales. As a border authority, choosing comparable authorities in England was necessary. We recognise the need to improve our analysis in this area.

As part of the data analysis, we asked the Data Unit Wales to compare data for Monmouthshire with that of similar local authority areas in both Wales and England

The Welsh local authority comparator areas were chosen using our Comparable Authorities model4 developed by the Data Uni. Because the Single Integrated Plan covers a broad range of issues, the Data Unit used three indicators to identify the most similar local authorities:

 Total population

 Population density

 Proportion of the working age population claiming unemployment related benefits

Using these criteria, the areas of Ceredigion, Pembrokeshire and Powys were identified as the most comparable authorities.

In addition, the Data Unit were asked to consider comparator local authority areas in England. Because of its location, Monmouthshire has far closer links with England than most other local authorities in Wales. This is reflected in our use of north Devon and Herefordshire because of their location, and the City of York, which was chosen using the Comparable Authorities model.

It should be noted that the English comparators cannot be used for all data sets because of methodological differences.

4http://www.dataunitwales.gov.uk/comparableauthorities

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Annex C – Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation rankings by domains

LSOA Name WIMD Income Employment Health Education Mardy 1 286 416 295 316 163 Cantref 2 459 302 456 740 413 Overmonnow 2 520 347 522 919 503 Lansdown 545 484 347 580 779 Thornwell 1 563 334 655 912 514 West End 630 567 708 657 436 Croesonen 710 669 655 937 818 Severn 2 750 699 585 959 775 Llanelly Hill 2 790 1035 708 1196 973 Dewstow & Green Lane 1 800 618 708 1070 414 Llanover 1 803 1186 522 1474 1627 Dewstow & Green Lane 2 805 655 655 992 416 Grofield 934 781 655 1058 1274 St. Christopher's 1054 889 1221 1122 791 Wyesham 1060 962 1111 1396 961 St. Mary's 1092 1076 941 1231 1378 CaldicotCastle 2 1093 928 941 1214 904 Mardy 2 1102 1452 861 1106 1543 Thornwell 2 1122 1094 1111 1540 788 Priory 2 1145 1113 941 967 1222 Castle &LlanfoistFawr 1156 1010 1111 1642 1388 Llanover 2 1183 1387 1327 1198 1459 Overmonnow 1 1187 959 1111 1505 1077 LlantilioCrossenny 1230 1704 1560 1855 1661 Drybridge 1 1248 1249 1111 1574 1292 Larkfield 1261 1279 1022 1298 865 Llanwenarth Ultra 1279 1233 1022 1178 1424 Crucorney 1319 1571 1560 1549 1671 Trellech United 1 1332 1581 1761 918 1598 GoetreFawr 2 1354 1195 1111 1414 1341 Llanelly Hill 3 1423 1087 1022 1183 1207 Mitchel Troy 1480 1490 1761 1785 1699 LlangybiFawr 1490 1706 1673 1578 1824 Llanbadoc 1493 1741 1761 1518 1742 St. Arvans 1515 1734 1673 1617 1647 Rogiet 1571 1354 1447 1628 1264 Priory 1 1577 1484 1221 1663 1776 Raglan 1585 1650 1761 1697 1575 Mill 1 1600 1497 1447 1821 1518 Cantref 1 1606 1738 1560 1089 1845 Severn 1 1626 1620 1560 1588 981

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LSOA Name WIMD Income Employment Health Education Drybridge 2 1632 1577 1447 1526 1789 Caerwent 1635 1714 1673 1723 1633 Mill 3 1666 1752 1761 1863 1545 Portskewett 1676 1585 1560 1803 1404 Devauden 1683 1681 1761 1877 1756 Mill 2 1704 1796 1761 1768 1574 Trellech United 2 1713 1785 1845 1811 1817 Usk 1 1738 1591 1873 1394 1730 Shirenewton 1742 1809 1761 1778 1843 The Elms 1743 1838 1845 1882 1830 Llanelly Hill 1 1744 1784 1447 1304 1688 GoetreFawr 1 1764 1885 1845 1851 1808 Usk 2 1783 1727 1673 1839 1826 CaldicotCastle 1 1805 1780 1761 1776 1570 Dixton with Osbaston 1814 1865 1761 1886 1866 St. Kingsmark 2 1881 1841 1761 1658 1825 St. Kingsmark 1 1892 1866 1845 1693 1848

Access to Community LSOA Name WIMD Housing Environment services safety Mardy 1 286 358 654 895 537 Cantref 2 459 509 503 1317 502 Overmonnow 2 520 861 210 1370 555 Lansdown 545 1154 578 1267 512 Thornwell 1 563 1339 544 564 869 West End 630 842 222 1675 579 Croesonen 710 1387 182 759 623 Severn 2 750 1385 151 1146 892 Llanelly Hill 2 790 837 749 230 328 Dewstow & Green Lane 1 800 1395 1070 1282 925 Llanover 1 803 1250 999 24 1823 Dewstow & Green Lane 2 805 1566 823 1732 854 Grofield 934 265 778 1763 737 St. Christopher's 1054 1273 973 485 942 Wyesham 1060 988 221 590 1250 St. Mary's 1092 464 168 1604 469 CaldicotCastle 2 1093 1249 579 1296 572 Mardy 2 1102 1550 744 153 1341 Thornwell 2 1122 1118 601 412 1324 Priory 2 1145 1002 304 1181 936 Castle &LlanfoistFawr 1156 1593 491 285 725

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Access to Community LSOA Name WIMD Housing Environment services safety Llanover 2 1183 1340 637 105 1193 Overmonnow 1 1187 1122 118 1335 940 LlantilioCrossenny 1230 1053 917 2 1867 Drybridge 1 1248 1405 460 323 1100 Larkfield 1261 1390 674 1003 689 Llanwenarth Ultra 1279 1544 1168 388 1112 Crucorney 1319 1371 1165 34 1557 Trellech United 1 1332 1450 1338 60 1821 GoetreFawr 2 1354 1836 1643 342 1254 Llanelly Hill 3 1423 1658 1750 1138 1384 Mitchel Troy 1480 1044 1189 98 1168 LlangybiFawr 1490 1583 1079 56 1779 Llanbadoc 1493 1257 385 131 1475 St. Arvans 1515 1373 642 128 1577 Rogiet 1571 1475 812 705 1183 Priory 1 1577 1153 495 1187 473 Raglan 1585 1451 797 161 1733 Mill 1 1600 1816 112 990 1198 Cantref 1 1606 1773 323 488 1714 Severn 1 1626 1784 220 1354 1300 Drybridge 2 1632 511 351 1667 696 Caerwent 1635 1524 1062 196 1644 Mill 3 1666 1729 109 578 1608 Portskewett 1676 1736 850 505 1477 Devauden 1683 1556 1732 141 1887 Mill 2 1704 1856 308 436 1671 Trellech United 2 1713 1760 1186 156 1875 Usk 1 1738 1514 99 1583 1440 Shirenewton 1742 1732 1407 206 1794 The Elms 1743 1866 446 291 1766 Llanelly Hill 1 1744 1768 966 794 1613 GoetreFawr 1 1764 1704 1286 214 1686 Usk 2 1783 1342 234 1036 1649 CaldicotCastle 1 1805 1877 829 601 1771 Dixton with Osbaston 1814 1834 1571 288 1881 St. Kingsmark 2 1881 1821 1087 1028 1614 St. Kingsmark 1 1892 1892 1136 1114 1839

Note: The rankings are based on 1896 Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA) in Wales.

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Annex D - Pupil absenteeism by LSOA in Monmouthshire . % rate of pupil absenteeism in % rate of pupil absenteeism primary schools in secondary schools LSOA 2005-07 2008-10 Change 2005-07 2008-10 Change Caerwent 5.4 5 -0.4 7.8 7 -0.8 CaldicotCastle 1 6.6 5.7 -0.9 7.9 6.7 -1.2 CaldicotCastle 2 6.7 6.7 0 7.9 8.2 0.3 Cantref 1 5.3 4.1 -1.2 8.5 6.3 -2.2 Cantref 2 5.6 6.9 1.3 9.5 11.2 1.7 Castle &LlanfoistFawr 5.6 5.7 0.1 8.4 9.4 1 Croesonen 5.4 6.4 1 8.4 9.2 0.8 Crucorney 5.4 4.9 -0.5 8.3 6.6 -1.7 Devauden 5.3 5.2 -0.1 7.8 6 -1.8 Dewstow&Green Lane 1 7.2 7.4 0.2 8 11.1 3.1 Dewstow&Green Lane 2 7.1 7 -0.1 8.6 9.6 1 Dixton with Osbaston 5.5 5.4 -0.1 7.7 5.7 -2 Drybridge 1 6.2 5.8 -0.4 8 7.9 -0.1 Drybridge 2 5.8 4.7 -1.1 7.7 8.2 0.5 GoetreFawr 1 5.9 5 -0.9 7.8 6.3 -1.5 GoetreFawr 2 5.4 5.4 0 7.5 9.1 1.6 Grofield 5.3 5.9 0.6 8.3 7.8 -0.5 Lansdown 5.5 5.1 -0.4 8.4 10 1.6 Larkfield 5.6 7.1 1.5 8.7 9 0.3 Llanbadoc 4.5 4.4 -0.1 6.8 7.7 0.9 Llanelly Hill 1 5.8 5.4 -0.4 8.6 7.5 -1.1 Llanelly Hill 2 6.8 6.5 -0.3 9.2 9 -0.2 Llanelly Hill 3 6 6.1 0.1 8.5 8.4 -0.1 LlangybiFawr 4.8 4.5 -0.3 6.8 5.8 -1 Llanover 1 5 5.1 0.1 8 7 -1 Llanover 2 5.5 5.1 -0.4 8.4 8 -0.4 LlantilioCrossenny 5.3 5.1 -0.2 7.8 6.6 -1.2 Llanwenarth Ultra 5.6 4.8 -0.8 8.5 9.1 0.6 Mardy 1 5.4 6.1 0.7 9.8 14.5 4.7 Mardy 2 5 4.1 -0.9 8.5 8.1 -0.4 Mill 1 5.6 4.8 -0.8 8.1 8.6 0.5 Mill 2 5.5 5 -0.5 7.9 6.2 -1.7 Mill 3 5.5 5.8 0.3 7.9 5.7 -2.2 Mitchel Troy 5.8 5.4 -0.4 8.2 6.9 -1.3 Overmonnow 1 6.3 6.5 0.2 7.9 8.4 0.5 Overmonnow 2 6.5 8.5 2 7.7 12.5 4.8 Portskewett 5.6 5.3 -0.3 7.9 6.3 -1.6 Priory 1 5.4 4.7 -0.7 8.4 7 -1.4 Priory 2 5.4 5.5 0.1 8.7 7.9 -0.8 Raglan 5.3 5.1 -0.2 7.8 8 0.2 Rogiet 5.5 5.3 -0.2 7.9 7.3 -0.6 Severn 1 6.3 6.6 0.3 8.7 7.1 -1.6 Severn 2 6.4 7.5 1.1 7.8 10 2.2 Shirenewton 5.3 4.8 -0.5 8.2 6.1 -2.1 St. Arvans 5.8 5.1 -0.7 7.8 9.2 1.4 St. Christopher's 6.2 6.5 0.3 7.9 9.8 1.9 St. Kingsmark 1 5.2 4.3 -0.9 7.9 4.6 -3.3 St. Kingsmark 2 5.5 4.5 -1 7.9 5.7 -2.2 St. Mary's 5.5 5.3 -0.2 8.3 10.2 1.9 The Elms 5.5 5.1 -0.4 8 5.6 -2.4 Thornwell 1 6.3 6.6 0.3 7.9 12.8 4.9 Thornwell 2 6.2 6.4 0.2 8.4 9.9 1.5 Trellech United 1 6.1 6.2 0.1 7.9 7.5 -0.4 Trellech United 2 6.3 5.3 -1 7.7 6.8 -0.9 119

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Usk 1 4 4.3 0.3 6.7 5.7 -1 Usk 2 4 4.3 0.3 6.5 6.7 0.2 West End 6.8 7.3 0.5 8.1 9.9 1.8 Wyesham 5.4 5.7 0.3 8 8.6 0.6

NB Shaded figures show LSOAs where the absenteeism rate has increased over time.

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Annex E - Identified Play needs to meet the requirements of National Policy. Summary of key findings of each Matter assessed in accordance with the Regulations and described in the Statutory Guidance

Mater A: Population There is a need to  generate better five year population projections in relation to play, particularly in disadvantaged areas and in rural areas (the Council has good sources of up to date accurate population data but there is limited focus on five year population projections);  establish better/more accessible data relating to disabled children and children from different cultural backgrounds.

Matter B: Providing for Diverse Needs There is a need to  identify play requirements of disabled children, Welsh speaking children, those from different cultural backgrounds & those living in isolated communities;  ensure that up to date access audits are available for all play provisions in the county;  work with Crossroads Care South East Wales and other agencies to try and identify those carers with whom we do not currently engage;  carry out transport planning for all existing safe routes in the communities, engaging with stakeholders as part of the process;

Matter C: Space available for children to play There is a need to  ensure that up to date access audits are available for all open spaces and identify priority sites for improvements;  develop a local Open Space Standard and provide Supplementary Planning Guidance in relation to play and other factors;  liaise with other partners to obtain an up to date record of all designated play space in the county;  undertake conditions surveys, access audits and play value assessments of all play spaces not yet covered;  review signage on all play spaces in order to promote a positive image of children playing and to encourage children to play in the community

Matter D: Supervised Provision and Structured Recreational Activities There is a need to  examine with other partners the possibility of extending the playscheme and other play provision to holiday periods other than summer holidays  work with Clybiau Plant Cymru to help the twelve non registered play provisions operating on school site to move towards becoming registered  seek ways to extend and to support the community led open access play provisions beyond July 2014 when the funding for Three Counties Play ends  review further opportunities to increase play and recreational activities for children and young people;  roll out training & resources to all community sports clubs, care providers and voluntary groups, including training of playscheme staff

Matter E: Charges for Play Provision There is a need to  set up more open access play provisions in the county, particularly in disadvantaged areas including Dewstow (Caldicot), Bulwark/Thornwell (Chepstow) and Overmonnow (Monmouth);  seek continued funding to employ support workers to provide access for disabled children to play provisions (currently funded by Families First grant).

Version 2 Monmouthshire Strategic Needs Assessment Matter F: Access to space/provision and Information, publicity and events There is a need to  develop community access plans or school travel plans in those communities not covered;  ensure that funding bids are continued for delivery of cycling and pedestrian training for children;  ensure that Section 106 contributions for access to play areas are mindful of any public transport or transport requirements;  set up a designated section on the Family Information Service (FIS) website, setting out the full range of play opportunities for children and families;  produce and display printed information on children‟s play at leisure centres and libraries in response to feedback from parents;  promote positive attitudes to play when engaging with local communities and the media.

Matter G: Securing and developing the play workforce There is a need to  identify a “Lead Officer” for play from within existing resources to “champion” play and to coordinate current and future play provisions and activities;  work with partners from other agencies and the voluntary sector to undertake a training needs analysis for the play workforce in the county;  investigate the possibility of extending current CPD and other training to the play workforce and to community groups, parents and volunteers;  commission training awareness sessions about play for professionals and key decision makers in the county;  consider a joint approach with other Local Authorities on a South East Wales Regional basis to provide training and support to the play workforce.

Matter H: Community engagement and participation There is a need to  investigate the possibility of collaborative approaches to community led play in the county;  continue to support collaborative and consultative groups such as the Monmouthshire Play Advisory Group and the Inclusive Advisory Group;  use existing play settings and provisions to obtain the views of children and their families on play provision in local communities.

Matter I: Play within relevant policy and implementation agendas There is a need to  nominate a representative on the Local Service Board (LSB) to act as a play champion;  ensure that the Play Sufficiency Assessment and Audit forms part of the Single Integrated Plan  review intergenerational activities to ensure there are sufficient play based approaches and they encourage better interaction between children of different ages;  review the community development and community safety criteria when the Single Integrated Plan is published;  review the Council‟s Health & Safety policies and consider incorporating the value of children experiencing risk and challenge;  obtain information from other relevant Local Authorities on the provision of insurance to third sector play providers and Community Councils and consider whether or not to introduce such a service in Monmouthshire.