1999 FEASIBILITY STUDY REPORT 04 NED0-IC-99R43

FEASIBILITY STUDY ON ENERGY LOSS REDUCTION PROJECT IN MYANMAR

March 2000

nedobis V'3w Energy and Industrial Technology E99007 Development Organization (NEDO) Entrusted Organization : Tokyo electric n------Services Co., Ltd. (TEPSCO)

020 004930-2 1999 Feasibility Study for the Purpose of Promoting Basic Survey Projects to Prevent Global Warming Feasibility Study on Energy Loss Reduction Project in Myanmar

Entrusted Organization : Tokyo Electric Power Services Co., Ltd. (TEPSCO) March 1999

Purpose : This project aims at reduction of GHG (Greenhouse Gas) Emission in Myanmar, which is discharged from thermal power plant, by improvement of efficiency of the thermal power plants and loss reduction of the transmission/distribution line. Also, the realization possibility as CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) of this project is investigated. 1 999 FEASIBILITY STUDY REPORT NED0-IC-99R43

FEASIBILITY STUDY ON ENERGY LOSS REDUCTION PROJECT IN MYANMAR

March 2000

New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) Entrusted Organization : Tokyo electric Power Services Co., Ltd. (TEPSCO) FOREWORD

This report compiles the findings of the “Basic Study for Promotion of Joint Implementation. ” for fiscal 1999 which has been entrusted by the New Energy and Industrial Development Organization (NEDO) to Tokyo Electric Power Services Co., Ltd. (TEPSCO).

In December, 1997, the Third conferences of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COPS) was held in Kyoto, Japan and the Kyoto Protocol stipulating numerical targets for greenhouse gas emission from 2008 to 2012 for industrialized countries was adopted to prevent global warming caused by C02 and other greenhouse gases. At the same time, resolutions were passed on “joint implementation ” (JI) between industrialized countries and “a clean development mechanism ” (CDM) and “the trading of emission rights ” with developing countries as flexible measures to achieve the said targets.

Against this background, the study intends to provide the basis for the formulation of the project to contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emission through the energy saving technologies as well as alternative energy technologies possessed by TEPSCO and also to contribute to the sustainable economic development of recipient countries.

This study ultimately aims at leading to the realization of CDM. It is our sincere hope that the findings of this report will be fully utilized to realize a CDM.

Finally, we would like to express our heartfelt gratitude to all those who have rendered valuable support in the course of the Study.

March, 2000 Tokyo Electric Power Services Co., Ltd. Study Team Members

The Study Team members are listed below.

Name Work Assignment Department / Company Hiroshi Oto Team Leader Overseas Engineering Dept. TEPSCO Takao Nakamura Transmission and Distribution // Shin ichi Mogi Transmission and Distribution // Hiroshi Miyata Power generation (Electrical) // Jun Masabuchi Power generation (Gas turbine) // Masahiro Furuta Power generation (Gas turbine) // Kuri Orui Financial Analysis // CONTENTS

SUMMARY

CHAPTER! OUTLINE OF MYANMAR 1.1 Outline of Myanmar 1.1.1 Situation of Politics, Economy and Society 1.1.2 Situation of Energy and Power Sector 1.1.3 Necessity of Realization of CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) 1.2 Need of the energy conservation technology introduction 1.3 Result diffusion

CHAPTER 2 PROJECT PLAN < Thermal Power Station Improvement > 2.1 Project Planing 2.1.1 Overview of Target Area 2.1.2 Contents of Project 2.1.3 Targeted GHG of the Project 2.2 Outline of MEPE 2.2.1 Interest of MEPE 2.2.2 Situation of Related Facilities (Outline, Specification, Operation) 2.2.3 Ability to Carry Out Project 2.2.3.1 Technical Ability 2.2.3.2 Management System 2.2.3.3 Management Foundation and Policy 2.2.3.4 Financial Performance 2.2.3.5 Manpower Capacity 2.2.3.6 Implementation Organization 2.2.4 Pacification of Project 2.2.5 Scope of Provision for Implementation (Finance, Procurement, Services, and so forth) 2.2.6 Preconditions and Problems for Project Implementation 2.2.7 Project Schedule 2.3 Materialization of Financial Procurement 2.3.1 Project Budget 2.3.2 Fund Raising Plan and Prospects for Project Implementation

l 2.4 Conditions of COM (Clean Development Mechanism) 2.4.1 Conditions and Preparations for Implementation Project 2.4.2 Possibility of Agreement for CDM < Transmission and Distribution Loss Reduction > 2.5 Project Planing 2.5.1 Overview of Target Area 2.5.2 Contents of Project 2.5.3 Targeted GHG of the Project 2-152 2.6 Outline of MEPE 2.6.1 Interest of MEPE 2.6.2 Situation of Related Facilities (Outline, Specification, Operation) 2.6.3 Ability to Carry Out Project 2.6.3.1 Technical Ability 2.6.3.2 Management System 2.6.3.3 Management Foundation and Policy 2.6.3.4 Financial Performance 2.6.3.5 Manpower Capacity 2.6.3.6 Implementation Organization 2.6.4 Pacification of Project 2.6.5 Scope of Provision for Implementation (Finance, Procurement, Services, and so forth) 2.6.6 Preconditions and Problems for Project Implementation 2.6.7 Project Schedule 2.7 Materialization of Financial Procurement 2.7.1 Project Budget 2.7.2 Fund Raising Plan and Prospects for Project Implementation 2.8 Conditions of CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) 2.8.1 Conditions and Preparations for Implementation Project 2.8.2 Possibility of Agreement for CDM

CHAPTER 3 EFFECT OF THE PROJECT < Thermal Power Station Improvement > 3.1 Energy Conservation 3.1.1 Technical Basis for Energy Conservation Effect 3.1.2 Baseline of Energy Conservation Effect

u 3.1.3 Results on Energy Conservation Effect 3.1.4 Verification Method of Energy Conservation Effect (Monitoring Method) 3.2 GHG Reduction Effect 3.2.1 Technical Basis for GHG Reduction Effect 3.2.2 Baseline of GHG Reduction Effect 3.2.3 Results on GHG Reduction Effect 3.2.4 Verification Method GHG Reduction Effect (Monitoring Method) 3.3 Impacts on Productivity < Transmission and Distribution Loss Reduction > 3.4 Energy Conservation 3.4.1 Technical Basis for Energy Conservation Effect 3.4.2 Baseline of Energy Conservation Effect 3.4.3 Results on Energy Conservation Effect 3.4.4 Verification Method of Energy Conservation Effect (Monitoring Method) 3.5 GHG Reduction Effect 3.5.1 Technical Basis for GHG Reduction Effect 3.5.2 Baseline of GHG Reduction Effect 3.5.3 Results on GHG Reduction Effect 3.5.4 Verification Method GHG Reduction Effect (Monitoring Method) 3.6 Impacts on Productivity

CHAPTER 4 PROFITABILITY AND COST PERFORMANCE < Thermal Power Station Improvement > 4.1 Profitability 4.2 Cost Performance < Transmission and Distribution Loss Reduction > 4.3 Profitability 4.4 Cost Performance

CHAPTER 5 POSSIBILITY OF SPREAD TECHENOLOGY < Thermal Power Station Improvement > 5.1 Possibility of Spread of Technology 5.2 Effects of Nationwide Spread 5.2.1 Energy Conservation 5.2.2 GHG Reduction Effect < Transmission and Distribution Loss Reduction >

in 5.3 Possibility of Spread of Technology 5.4 Effects of Nationwide Spread 5.4.1 Energy Conservation 5.4.2 GHG Reduction Effect

CHAPTER 6 IMPACTS ON OTHERS EXPECT GHG 6.1 Impacts on Environmental, Economic and Social Aspects (Thermal Power Project) 6.2 Impacts on Environmental, Economic and Social Aspects (Transmission and Distribution Project)

CONCLUSIONS

APPENDIX

REFERENCE

MINUTES OF MEETING

IV SUMMARY SUMMERY

1. Introduction

This project aims at reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emission in Myanmar which is discharged from thermal power plant, by improvement of efficiency of the thermal power plants and loss reduction of the transmission/distribution line.

2. Study on Target Area

Target area is shown below of this project (1) Thermal Power Plant • Shwedaung Power Station and Mann Power Station (2) Transmission and Distribution System • Transmission/Distribution system of 7 townships in Mandalay District • 2 townships only of 400V distribution lines

3. Conditions of Study

(1) Thermal Power Plant • Use of the existing facilities as possible, such as gas turbine, switchyard, control building etc. • It is possible to study within the existing power station area (2) Transmission and Distribution System • Non-technical loss is excluded from study • The study is based on the existing transmission/distribution line and network • Based on the energy loss of power flows at the 2003 year’s peak time, it is estimated for annual energy loss from the duration curve • It is considered that the above energy reduction effect is influenced in superordinate systems

4. Contents of Study

(1) Site Survey in Gas Turbine Power Station (2) Data Collection in Transmission/Distribution system (3) Study on Improvement Plans of Power Station (4) Study on Improvement Plans of T/D system (5) GHG Reduction Effect (6) Profitability and Cost Performance

i (7) Possibility of Spread Of Technology (8) Impacts on Others Expect GHG (9) Final Site Survey

5. Thermal Power Plant Project

(1) Project Outline and GHG Reduction Effect In order to reduce emissions of C02, greenhouse gases, in thermal power stations, the following methods can be considered: • Reduce fuel consumption through improving thermal efficiency of plants; and • Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by using fuels with a low carbon content.

Since the types of fuel are limited in the case of the Project, the latter alternative is not feasible; thus, the former alternative of reducing C02 emissions through improving thermal efficiency shall be adopted. Table 1-1 shows a comparison of four cases for Shwedaung power station. (The same trend holds true for Mann power station, too).

Table 5-1 Comparison of Project Cases (Shwedaung Power Station) Item Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 3-3-1 C/C 3-GTs & 3-GTs & 2-New C/C Composition of facilities (C/C) 1-New GT 1-New C/C First 84.5 108.4 144.0 179.6 Generation lOyears output (MW) Next 84.5 54.2 89.8 179.6 lSyears First 39.7 28.2 41.5 51.1 Thermal lOyears efficiency (%) Next 39.7 30.8 51.1 51.1 lSyears Initial rough investment 42.8 40.2 69.2 128.7 (MM US$) Future rough investment 42.9 0 0 0 (MM US$1 Total investment (MM US$) 85.7 40.2 69.2 128.7 Note: Future investment is anticipated for the existing gas turbine after 10 years in order to purchase a new gas turbine of similar specifications (Case 1). The existing gas turbine will be removed after 10 years (Cases 2, 3). The following conclusions can be drawn from the above table: • If priority is placed on reducing C02 emissions, it is thought that Cases 3 and 4, which entail high efficiency combined cycle generation, are the better alternatives. • In terms of initial investment and construction period, Case 2, which involves installation of a single gas turbine, is most advantageous. However, from the viewpoints of thermal efficiency and power generation cost, Case 4, which involves installation of combined cycle power plant, is probably the best alternative.

Upon discussing the above alternative cases based on the aforementioned considerations, MEPE was agreed to advance examination based on Case 1 by the following reason: • In view of the critical power demand situation in Myanmar, it is imperative that new power sources be found quickly. However, there is difficulty in securing funds for power plant construction and existing facilities must continue to be used into the future. It is the wish of the Government of Myanmar that existing facilities are not dismantled but continue to be used, even if they be somewhat deteriorated. • MEPE has incorporated a plan for combined cycle conversion into it’s generation expansion program for medium to long term • The case has no entail major revision of existing facilities and responds to the available amount of fuel supply and increasing demand for power

Moreover, in the case where fuel supply to future facilities is made possible, the local side stated its desire to install additional combined cycle power plants on the sites of Shwedaung and Mann power stations.

(2) Investment Return Effect The results of calculating the FIRR based on the below conditions are as indicated in Table 1-2. Funds shall be obtained through a yen loan from the Government of Japan. Concerning the rate of interest, since the Project intends to reduce emissions of greenhouse gas, an environmental yen loan shall be adopted with an interest rate of 1.7%. An interest rate of a city bank in Myanmar is 1.7%. It is thought that, in the case of using together the former with the latter, the Project is worthy of investing and implementing. Table 5-2 Financial Internal Rate of Returns (FIRR) (MMUS$) Shwedaung P/S Mann P/S Project budget 38.8 52.2 33.9 22.6 Replacement cost in 11th Replacement of the gas turbines will be year necessary in the 10th year, and the cost of this is projected to the 11th year Construction period 12 months Fuel cost (per year) 10.9 10.9 O&M cost (per year) 0.6 0.6 Electricity tariff 0.04 US$/kWh Annual operating rate of 80% is estimated However, the rate which can be collected as Operating method electricity tariff shall be 75% of the annual generated power amount Service life of facilities 25 years FIRR (%) 12.8 9.4

(3) Cost Effectiveness Cost effectiveness refers to the amount of greenhouse gas reduction per dollar. This is assessed by comparing the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (aggregate over 25 years) to the construction cost in the event of Project implementation. The base unit of C02 emissions and unit price of power generation following Project implementation were also implemented. The above calculation results are indicated in Table 1-3.

Table 5-3 Cost Effectiveness Shwedaung Mann Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (kt-COVyear) 323 173 Aggregate reductions over 25 years (kt-CO,) 8075 4325 Project construction cost (MM US $) 72.7 74.8 Cost effect (US $/t-CO,) 9 17.3 Base unit of emissions (g-C07/kWh) 560 560 Generation unit price (US cents/kWh) 2.5 2.5

Since the gas turbines to be used in the Project were constructed approximately 20 years’ ago and have low performance and output, the base unit of emissions is high. Moreover, concerning the large disparity in cost effectiveness between Shwedaung and Mann gas turbine power stations, this can be explained by the fact that Project effect is diminished in the case of Mann power station due to the installation of a new gas turbine.

iv 6. Transmission and Distribution Project

(1) Project Outline and Effect The outline of the Project of Mandalay System, in which medium or low voltage systems is referred to as Project 1 and Project 2, respectively, is listed as below. The total construction cost of both Project 1 and Project 2 was roughly estimated at 6,620 thousand US$.

Table 6-1 Outline of Project 1 Construction Cost (Roughly outline QTY Estimated) riooous$i 33kV Transmission Line Total 63.58 ckt-km 643.47 33kV Conductor Size-up Total 3.2 ckt-km 32.74 llkV Distribution Line Total 6.659 ckt-km 67.79 llkV Conductor Size-up Total 3.82 ckt-km 38.93 33/llkV Transformer Total 13 set 1395.00 33kV Switchgear Total 38 set 1066.66 llkV Swichgear Total 31 set 522.04 Capacitor Total 2 set 400.00 33/llkV Transformer Capacity Total 77.5 MVA Capacitor Capacity Total 20MVA Total Cost 4,166.63 ckt-km: circuit kilometer

Table 6-2 Outline of Project 2 Construction Cost Outline QTY riooous$i ll/0.4kV Transformer 101 set 2,453

Reduction Effects of the Project are presented in Table 2-3. The peak load reduction is 15MW, annual Reduction is 56GWh, and total reduction for 25 years is l,400GWh. As for C02, annual reduction is 40kiloton and total reduction for 25years is 771kiloton. Table 6-3 Reduction Effects Annual Reduction Annual Reduction Total Reduction (1st ~ 10th year) (llth~25th year) for 25years Peak Load Reduction fkWj 14,906 14,906 Energy Reduction [MWh] 55,953 55,953 1,398,825 C02 Reduction [ton] 39,788 24,866 770,870

v The project budget is estimated as below, and amounts to 7,613 thousand US$.

Table 6-4 Project Budget Direct Construction Cost 6,620 Project 1 4,167 Project 2 2,453 Indirect Cost 993 Management/Miscellaneous 331 Design/Engineering 331 Contingency 331 Total 7,613 thousand US$

(2) Invest Return Effect The Internal Return Ration of the Project as follows, when the analyzing period is set for 10 years.

Table 6-5 Internal Return Ratio EIRR FIRR 20.41% 17.56%

The criteria of each IRR are referred to social discount rate or bank loan rate, respectively.

Table 6-6 Criteria for IRR Social Discount Rate Bank Loan Rate in Myanmar 10% 15%

(3) Cost Effectiveness The cost performance of the Project is 10US$ per ton- C02.

Table 6-7 Project Performance Project Budget C02 Total Reduction for 25 years Cost Performance [1000US$] [kiloton] [US$/ton- COJ 7,613 771 9.87

(END) CHAPTER 1

OUTLINE OF MYANMAR CHAPTERl OUTLINE OF MYANMAR

1.1 OUTLINE OF MYANMAR

In this chapter, the current situation of Myanmar is outlined in terms of geography, population, religion, political regime, economy, trade, labour, industries and energy.

Table 1.1-1 Country Profile

Country Name The Union of Myanmar (Pyudaungzu Myanma Naingngandaw) Area 678,330 km12 Population 46,400,000 (1997 est.) Capital Yangon Nationality (Ethnic Groups) Burman (68.9%), Karen (6.5%), Shan (5.4%), Mon (2.8%), Chin (0.8%), etc. Language Burmese (official language), English is widely spoken Minority ethnic groups have their own languages Religions Buddhist (89.4%), indigenous religion called Nat belief (widely permeated) Christian (4%), Muslim (4%), Hinduist, and animist beliefs Government Type military regime GDP 1,074,950 million kyat (1997 provisional) GDP per capita 23,006 kyat (1997 provisional) Trade Export K 6,022.3 million (1997 provisional / 9.7% Up) Import K 13,450.8 million (1997 provisional/ 14.2% Up) Foreign Currency Reserves $191 million (end of 1997) Debt Accumulation $5,318 million (FY96) Currency Kyat US$ 1=K 6.2 (1997 average, official exchange rate) US$ 1=K 345 (November 1999, market exchange rate) FEC (Foreign Exchange Certificate) 1FEC=US$1

(1) Geography

Myanmar is the largest country on the mainland South-East Asia with a total land area of 676,577km3 sharing international borders of 5,858km with Bangladesh and India on the North-West, China on the North-East, Laos on the East and Thailand on the South-East. It has a total coastline of 2,832km. It stretches 2,090km from north to south and 925km from east to west at its widest points.

1-1 Myanmar could be taken as a forest-clad mountainous country. Three parallel chains of mountain ranges that begin from the eastern extremity of the Himalayan mountain range, run from north to South: the Western Yoma or Rakhine Yoma, the Bago Yoma and the Shan Plateau. The snow-capped peak of the Hkakabo-Razi at 5,881m is the highest in South-East Asia. These mountain chains divide the country into three river systems, the Ayeyarwady (the old name was the Irrawady, originating in the northern mountain area at the border, flowing down between Shan Plateau and Arakan Yoma into central Myanmar with many old historical major cities along, having been a very important route of trade with Yunnan in China since early times, having many tributaries and forming the magnificent Ayeyarwady delta, where is the rice bowl of Myanmar), the Sittoung (flowing in central Myanmar, originating in Bago Yoma in the South of Mandalay, flowing south between Bago Yoma and Shan Hills into the Gulf of Martaban, 420km long) and the Thanlwin (the old name was Salween, originating in Tibet, flowing in west Yunnan in China toward Myanmar and down through Shan Plateau being fed by many tributaries and drains into the Gulf of Martaban in Moulmein, 2,800km), of which the Ayeyarwady, the most important river, about 2,160km long, anditsmajor tributary, the Chindwin, 960km long, constitute the greatest riverine system in the country. As it enters the sea, the Ayeyarwady forms a vast delta of 240km by 210km.

According to these mountain chains and river systems, the country can be divided into seven major topographic regions: the Northern Hills, the Western Hills, the Shan Plateau, the Central Belt, the Lower Myanmar Delta, the Rakhine Coastal region and the Tanintharyi Coastal Strip.

As it is mainly in the Tropical region, Myanmar has a tropical monsoon climate with three seasons: the hot season from mid-February to mid-May, the rainy season from mid-May to mid-October and the cool season from mid-October to mid-February. Annual rainfalls vary from 500cm in the coastal regions to 75cm and less in the central dry zone. Mean temperature ranges from 32°C in the coastal and delta areas and 21°C in the Northern lowlands. During the hot season, temperatures could run considerably high in the central dry zone.

1-2 (2) Population

The seven divisions and seven autonomous states of Myanmar are estimated to have a population of approximately 46.4 million as of 1997/98 with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.82% and a population density of 68.4 persons/km2. This population size places Myanmar fifth on the population table of Southeast Asia and is similar to that of South Korea (43.7 million). Some 34 million people live in the Ayeyarwady Delta area in the central part of the country. The demographic distribution shows a high percentage of young people and some 33.4% of the total population is less than 15 years old. The ratio of people between 15 years old and 59 years old in the working population is approximately 58.9% while that of people of 60 years or more is some 75%, indicating an abundant working population. The ratio of people working in the agricultural sector is as high as some 63.3%.

Myanmar is characterized by a high level of ethnic diversity. Led by the Bur man who account for some 68.96% of the total population, there are some 135 ethnic groups. The main minority groups are the Karen (some 2.5 - 3 million), the Shan (some 2.5 million), the Mon (some 1.3 million), the Chin (some 350,000), the Kayah (some 75,000), the Naga (some 50,000), the Kachin, the Wa, the Palaung, the Mokeng, the Arakan, the Tavoy, the Taunyau, the Danu, the Inda, the Yo, the Alma and the Achan.

(3) Religion

Theravada Buddhism is the religion of 89.4% of the population, particularly among the Burmese, the Shan, the Mon, the Rakhin and some of the Karen. Other religions include Islam, Christianity, Hinduism and animism. Christian beliefs are mainly shared by the Karen, the Kachin and the Chin while Islam and Hinduism are mainly followed by those of Indian origin. People of Chinese descent follow the principles of Confucianism and Taoism. Together with Buddhism, hero worship called Nat worship is widespread throughout the country.

The school of local Buddhism, which is the leading religion in Myanmar, is Theravada Buddhism and it is customary for young boys of around 10 years of age to undergo a period of training as apprentice monks. Consequently, education for young people is actively provided by temples, resulting in a high level of literacy compared to the ratio of people receiving formal education. The people of Myanmar are deeply religious and religion provides the framework for judgement of the social values and behaviour of individuals. Nevertheless, because of the extreme diversity of ethnicity, no single religion is powerful enough to unite the whole country.

1-4 1.1.1 Situation of Politics, Economy and Society

1.1.2.1 Politics

(1) Domestic Politics

The Revolutionary Council led by General Ne Win controlled domestic politics from 1962 but promulgated a new constitution in 1974, paving the way for a civilian government. The Burmese Socialist Program Party (BSPP) then pursued a Burmese-type socialist line under the single party system. Following massive demonstrations nationwide in 1988 demanding the democratization of domestic politics against the background of the bankrupt economy led to a military coup d’etat The BSPP was renamed the National Unity Party and the name of the country was changed from Burma to Myanmar. The general election held in 1990 under the multi-party system produced an overwhelming victory for the National League for Democracy (NLD).

The State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC), established after the military coup d’etat in 1988, assumed supreme power. It had the authority to convene parliamentary sessions, to promulgate laws and to sign international treaties, etc. and its members consisted of representatives of the People ’s Parliament, representatives of local areas and the Prime Minister. Senior General Than Shwe has occupied the position of Chairman and that of Prime Minister since 1992. Following the approval of Myanmar as a full member of the ASEAN in 1997, the SLORC was dissolved and replaced by the SPDC (State Peace and Development Council) together with a major reshuffle of the Cabinet. At this time, the Ministry of Electricity and the Ministry of Military Affairs were newly created while the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister was abolished.

The local administration is divided into seven divisions (Sagaing, Mandalay, Tanintharyi, Magway, Yangon, Bago and Ayeyarwady) and seven autonomous states (Kachin, Karen, Shan, Kayah, Mon, Rakhin and Chin).

1-5 2Table 1.1-3 Political Leaders

Chairman of Parliament / Prime Minister THAN SHWE, Sr. Gen. / Min. of Defense MAUNG MAUNG KHIN, VAdm. TIN HLA, Lt Gen. Dep. Prime Min. TIN TUN, Lt. Gen. (also Min. of Military Affairs) Min. of Finance & Revenue U KHIN MAUNG THEIN Min. of Foreign Affairs U WIN AUNG Min. of National Planning & Economic Development USOETHA Min. of Commerce PYEI SON, Brig. Gen. Min. of Transport HLA MYINT SWE, Maj. Gen. Min. of Agriculture & Irrigation NYUNT TIN, Maj. Gen. Min. of Industry No. 1 AUNG THAUNG, Col Min. of Industry No. 2 SAW LWIN, Maj. Gen. Min. of Electric Power TIN HTUT, Maj. Gen. Min. of Energy LUN THI, Brig. Gen. MAUNG MAUNG THEIN, VAdm. Min. in the Office of the Chairman of SPDC ABEL, David Oliver, Brig. Gen. MIN THEIN, It Gen. Source: Myanmar Business Directory 1998 Chiefs of State (as of 13th January, 2000)

(2) Diplomacy

Myanmar adopts the basic diplomatic principle of non-alignment and strict neutrality where “no military alignments are made with, “no military bases are offered to and no military aid is accepted from any country ”. Although Burma was one of the founding members of the Non- Aligned Summit Conference, it withdrew from it, criticizing the pro-Soviet stance of Cuba and other countries in 1979. It subsequently maintained an equal diplomatic distance from South Korea and North Korea but terminated diplomatic relations with North Korea after the terrorist bombing in Yangon (Rangoon) in October, 1983. Armed neutrality is the basic principle of national defense and the voluntary armed forces have a total strength of 186,000 personnel, i.e. 170,000 for the army, 7,000 for the navy and 9,000 for the air force.

Against the background of EU countries and the US opposing the method envisaged by ASEAN countries to achieve democratization, economic sanctions have been imposed on the obstinate military government of Myanmar by EU countries and the US. Meanwhile, they are opposed by ASEAN countries which argue that economic sanctions are counter-productive as the political crisis in Myanmar originates from an economic crisis.

1-6 The US government passed an act permitting economic sanctions against Myanmar in 1996, followed by the announcement of a ban on new investment by US companies in Myanmar in 1997. In the same year of 1997, the EU decided to suspend the application of preferential tariffs for Myanmar. In more recent years, however, an opinion that the current sanctions are having a negative effect has been emerging among EU countries and the US and careful attention should be paid to a possible shift of the position of various countries regarding the issue of democratization in Myanmar.

(Unit: US$ million)

□ Japanese ODA

Source: OECF Research Paper No. 13 Figure 1.1.4 Historical Changes of ODA Amount for Myanmar

Among efforts to realize the ASEAN 10 Initiative, Myanmar was allowed to attend the ASEAN Summit as an observer in 1995 and became a full member in 1997 to play its part in the ASEAN, the main objective of which has shifted from being an anti-communism block to inter-regional economic cooperation. As such, Myanmar currently enjoys a good political and economic relationship with other ASEAN countries.

Myanmar also has a close relationship with China through Chinese economic cooperation for infrastructure development projects involving the construction of roads, bridges and hydropower stations, etc. in the border area.

Myanmar ’s recent relationship with Japan is characterized by increasingly active economic activities centering on imports and exports. Since the coup d’etat in 1988, no new aid has been provided except emergency relief and humanitarian aid as Japanese economic cooperation for Myanmar has been frozen. However, Japan is now adopting a stance of providing aid for existing projects, (i.e. projects approved prior to 1988 and not yet implemented or in progress as of as 1988) and BHN projects, on a case by case basis in appreciation of the withdrawal of the house

1-7 arrest of Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the NLD, in 1995. The performance of Japanese ODA for Myanmar up to FY1996 is shown in Table 1.1-5 .

Table 1.1-5 Performance of Japanese ODA for Myanmar

Loans Grant Aid Technical Cooperation Period FY 1969 - FY 1987 FY 1975 - FY 1996 FY 1954 - FY 1996 Amount (¥ billion) 402.972 149.846 17.707 Note: The figures for loans and grant aid are based on Japan ’s commitment while the figure for technical cooperation is based on actual spending. Source: Embassy of Japan in Myanmar

1.1.2.2 Economy and International Trade

(1) General

During the colonial period, the British controlled the development of forestry and mining resources, transportation and the international trade of Burma (the former name of Myanmar) while the Chinese and Indians controlled small and medium-size commerce and physical distribution. The rice growing zone in the Ayeyarwady Delta was originally developed during the British colonial rule. There was a massive inflow of seasonal workers from India and one-third of the total farmland in lower Burma was owned by Indian money lenders called the Chetia Caste and by British absentee landowners. At this time, Burma had a typical colonial economy where such primary products as rice, teak, oil and metals were exported while industrial products, including consumption goods, were imported Following independence, the building of a socialist economy became a national target with the expulsion of foreign companies and the placing of the major means of production in the hands of the Burmese through nationalization. Exports of rice, teak, oil and mining products were booming during the colonial age, producing a large export surplus. After independence, however, economic activities gradually declined due to the chaotic situation caused by the civil war and the trade balance began to show a deficit because of swollen imports due to the population increase.

The country is still endowed with rich resources, such as wood, crude oil, natural gas, tin and rubies and the Four Year Plan which commenced in FY 1992 achieved an average annual economic growth rate of 7.5%, far exceeding the target of 5.1%. The successful outcome of this

1-8 plan stimulated investment activities under various development plans aimed at doubling exports and the total investment amount increased from K27.6 billion in FY 1991 to K82.6 billion in FY 1995, recording impressive average annual growth of 31.6%. Approximately half of the investment was made by the private sector, including direct investment from overseas.

This Four Year Plan placed strong emphasis on (i) a production increase in the agricultural, forestry, livestock and fisheries sectors and (ii) the promotion of exports. The total export value increased from K2.9 billion to K5 million in four years (average annual growth of 14.4%). The productivity of the agricultural sector, which was the lifeline of Myanmar ’s economy, showed phenomenal improvement in the plan period, recording an average annual increase of 7.3%. This favourable performance of the agricultural sector had a positive influence on the manufacturing/processing, transportation and international trade sectors and the real GDP per capita increased from Kl,201 in FY 1991 to Kl,491 in FY 1995.

The new Five Year Plan (FY 1996 - FY 2000) is in progress to consolidate the achievements of the previous Four Year Plan and to firmly establish the economic basis for future development. This Five Year Plan aims at creating a much more diverse economic structure than before and its targets include the development of infrastructure to support the expansion of the industrial base and the development of state-of-the-art technologies. Moreover, the introduction of a market economy is intended with many efforts being made in the financial sector.

Myanmar has a two tier foreign exchange system consisting of the official rate and the real rate. The official rate is approximately K6 to 1 US$. The worsening of the international balance of payments, inflation and the currency crisis have rapidly pushed down the real value of the kyat from K160 to 1 US$ in April, 1997 to K370 to 1 US$ in September, 1998. The government has since tightened its control of foreign exchange trade based on the real rate. As of November, 1999, the value of the kyat is further down to K345 to 1 US$. Foreign exchange convertible notes (FECs) are circulated in Myanmar. The US dollar exchange rate is 1 FEC to 1 US$. This makes the foreign exchange system, further complicating the situation.

(2) Major Economic Indices

Under the socialist regime, Burma suffered economic stagnancy for a long period of time with an average annual growth rate of 3.1% from FY 1962 to FY 1988 which was inferior to that of neighbouring countries. The stagnant economic performance continued for some time after the take-over by the military government. In the five year period from FY 1992 to FY 1996,

1-9 however, an average annual growth rate of more than 7% was achieved led by the agricultural, construction, telecommunications and financial sectors with a strong initiative by private companies in the latter two sectors. Particularly noticeable with the growth of the agricultural sector due to the trade liberalization of agricultural products and the promotion of a large-scale irrigation project, etc. Meanwhile, the expansion of public works, the inflow of foreign capital and housing development by the private sector were the main factors for the average annual growth of the construction sector of 18% in the same period.

The average growth rate of gross investment was as high as some 19% from FY 1993 to FY 1995, indicating investment-led growth in this period. However, the weak export base due to dependence on primary products posed a limit for investment-led growth and the sluggish export performance failed to offset the import increase, resulting in an increased deficit of the current account balance and a decline of the foreign money reserves.

In order to reduce this deficit, the government emphasized measures designed to restrain imports. Meanwhile, massive public investment led to an increase of the fiscal deficit from 2.2% in FY 1993 to 4% in FY 1995. Consequently, the government was forced to restrain capital outlay in addition to reducing imports.

The restraining measures introduced by the government rapidly dampened the real estate investment boom as well as the consumption boom up to that point and the GDP growth rate slowed down from 7.5% in FY 1994 to 6.4% in FY 1996. In the second half of FY 1997, the economy of Myanmar experienced further sluggishness, not only because of the poor performance of the agricultural sector suffering from such natural disasters as major flooding and drought and instability of the energy supply but also because of the declined value of the kyat, depressed exports to Asia and the decline of direct investment from overseas, all of which were attributable to the Asian economic crisis. In the end, the annual GDP growth rate in FY 1997 further declined to 4.6%.

1-10 Table 1.1-6 Economic Indicators (1993-1997) Unit: % 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 Nominal GDP (Kyat in million) 360,321 472,774 604,729 790,877 1,067,522 Real GDP Annual Growth 6.0 7.5 6.9 6.4 4.6 Agriculture 4.7 6.7 5.5 3.8 2.0 Industry 9.4 8.5 7.6 5.5 5.3 Service 8.0 10.0 9.2 6.4 5.1 Expansion of Gross Domestic Investment 8.4 21.9 27.8 6.8 2.9 Gross Domestic Investment / GDP 12.4 12.4 14.3 13.4 12.9 Gross National Saving / GDP 11.6 11.9 13.5 12.8 12.3 Investment - Saving / GDP -0.8 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 Current Account Balance / GDP -4.3 -6.2 -6.4 -6.5 -6.1 by National Enterprises Origin / GDP -1.9 -2.8 -2.1 -3.7 -4.1 Average Inflation Rate 33.5 22.4 21.8 20.0 32.7 Source: IMF May 22,1998 x Review of the Financial, Economic and Social Conditions for 1997/98 Note: The figures for 1997/98 are provisional.

(3) Industrial Structure of Myanmar

The industrial structure of Myanmar did not show any significant change between FY 1988 and FY 1997. Although the share of the agricultural sector slightly decreased with the share of the industrial sector increasing in terms of fixed prices, the share of the agricultural sector increased in terms of current prices, indicating a reverse trend compared to neighbouring countries. The main reason for this increased share of the agricultural sector in terms of current prices was the substantial increase of the relative prices of agricultural products vis-a-vis the prices of industrial products after the reference year of FY 1985 (1985/86) because of the price liberalization of agricultural products. The share of the service sector in terms of current prices showed a declining trend due to stagnant service prices which reflected the arbitrarily low level of public service prices. The restrained share increase of the industrial sector in terms of current prices was also attributable to the fact that energy and electricity prices were kept low by the government.

1-11 Table 1.1-7 Changes in Industrial Structure

Unit: % on GDP 1988/89 1997/98 Agriculture, Livestock and Fishery, Forestry 47.9 (57.3) 43.9 (58.8) Agriculture 38.5 (48.5) 35.6 (52.0) Industry 11.5 (9.8) 16.5 (10.6) Processing & Manufacturing 8.7 (7.5) 9.2 (7.5) Service 18.2 (12.1) 18.7 (7.1) Trade 22.4 (20.8) 20.9 (23.5) Total 100.0 (100.0) 100.0 (100.0) Source: Ministry of National Planning and Economic Development, Review of the Financial, Economic and Social Conditions for 1997/98. Note: Figures for 1985/86: at fixed prices / parenthesized figures: at current prices

Table 1.1-7 shows historical changes of the industrial production value by commodity group in Myanmar. The total industrial production value in FY 1997 is estimated to be K493.8 billion (current prices). As of FY 1997, food and beverages account for more than 80% of the total industrial production value, indicating the extremely low level of industrial development in Myanmar. Other groups with a relatively high production value are mineral and petroleum products (6.6%) and industrial raw materials (5.0%, suggesting that these are products of primary product processing industries.

The riots in 1988 destroyed much production equipment and machinery in Myanmar. Historical figures for industrial production in terms of quantity clearly indicate the adverse impacts of these riots. The overall production level of FY 1985 was only later restored in the mid-1990 ’s.

During the years covered by Table 1.1-8, a high growth rate was enjoyed by agricultural equipment, machinery/equipment and household goods. Such groups as industrial raw materials, mineral and petroleum products, clothing and construction materials also recorded favorable growth. In contrast, the recovery of transport vehicles, printing/publishing and miscellaneous groups was slow, presumably because of the Asian economic crisis and the electricity supply shortage caused by severe drought.

1-12 Table 1.1-8 Production by Commodity Group (at current prices)

Unit: Kyat in million 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 (Provisional (Provisional) Share (%) Index actual) (1987=100) Food & beverages 217,590 305,335 405,542 82.1 1,723 Clothing & wearing apparel 6,855 7,729 8,500 1.7 699 Construction Materials 4,877 5,562 6,553 1.3 657 Personal goods 2,930 3,158 4,800 1.0 1,548 Household goods 689 845 995 0.2 544 Printing & publishing 1,064 1,962 871 0.2 385 Industrial raw materials 14,335 14,879 24,737 5.0 1,782 Mineral & petroleum products 4,805 5,332 32,797 6.6 3,144 Agricultural equipment 962 1,540 2,362 0.5 2,460 Machinery & equipment 171 155 209 0.0 536 Transport vehicles 1,558 1,571 2,869 0.6 628 Workshop and dockyards 419 441 590 0.1 285 Miscellaneous 1,775 2,242 3,050 0.6 355 Total 258,030 350,751 493,875 100.0 1,616 Consumer Price Index 581 698 934 (Yangon) (1987=100) Source: Review of the Financial and Economic and Social Conditions, 1991/92,1995/96,1997/98 Statistical Yearbook 1997

1-13 Table 1.1-9 Production Index by Commodity Group (Quantum Index 1985/86=100)

Unit: Kyat in million 1996/97 1997/98 1988/89 1994/95 1995/96 (Provisional (Provisional) actual) Food & beverages 84.7 86.7 119.1 123.4 127.0 Clothing & wearing apparel 49.4 74.9 132.6 138.0 142.7 Construction Materials 67.0 112.9 124.7 134.5 134.5 Personal goods 35.6 71.5 114.7 110.5 126.0 Household goods 108.0 126.9 171.5 203.2 204.5 Printing & publishing 33.5 48.3 105.2 200.1 85.5 Industrial raw materials 64.7 83.1 154.0 150.3 159.8 Mineral & petroleum products 77.0 84.7 91.1 102.7 159.9 Agricultural equipment 39.9 45.7 167.3 265.9 263.5 Machinery & equipment 92.3 32.9 161.3 232.2 240.5 Transport vehicles 52.8 24.7 76.9 57.9 79.9 Workshop and dockyards 49.4 66.9 38.8 44.1 68.6 Miscellaneous 56.8 47.1 62.4 72.9 96.1 Total 77.5 83.7 118.4 123.7 130.1

Source: Review of the Financial, Economic and Social Conditions for 1997/98

(4) International Balance of Payments

The recent international balance of payments has shown a tendency towards an increased trade deficit, partly because of the stagnant export performance of agricultural products. Even though the increase of foreign tourists and remittance by Myanmar workers abroad have boosted the surplus in the invisible trade balance and an increase in the transfer account respectively, the actual levels are nowhere near offsetting the trade deficit. The level of external reserves is quite low as it is only sufficient to meet one month ’s requirement.

1-14 Table 1.1-10 Balance of Payments

Unit: Kyat in million 1991/2 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 Export 431 591 696 917 875 916 1,004 Import 842 1,010 1,302 1,488 1,716 1,917 2,241 Trade Balance -421 -420 -606 -570 -841 -1,001 -1,237 Invisible Trade Balance -15 22 41 54 -8 143 188 (Foreign tourists* 1: 1,000 pers.) 8 22 62 95 120 176 186 Transfer Account 83 122 273 322 431 450 461 Current Account -344 -275 -292 -195 -418 -408 -588 Capital Account 111 -3 29 151 198 307 330 Overall Balance -233 -278 -273 -44 -40 -101 -28 External Reserves* 2 297 273 241 327 289 207 191 External Debt 4,873 5,327 2,481 5,512 5,479 5,388 Source: Embassy of Japan in Myanmar Note: * 1 From the passenger statistics of the airport of Yangon * 2 At the ends of the fiscal years except the figure for 1997 (December 1996)

(5) International Trade

The structure of Myanmar ’s international trade is that the import volume increases in accordance with the development of the economy as it consists of the export of primary products and the import of consumer goods, raw materials, intermediate goods and capital goods. There has been a constant increase of the trade deficit in the 1990 ’s, fuelled by the construction boom, development of the manufacturing industry, increased fertilizer imports to boost agricultural production and the active growth of cross-border trade.

1) Exports

In regard to the composition of export products, agricultural products accounted for 50% of the total exports in the first half of the 1980 ’s but sharply declined in the second half because of sluggish production growth and the decline of international prices, forcing the government to make strenuous efforts to export forest products which subsequently became the main pillar of exports together with agricultural products.

The composition of export products has not shown any significant change throughout the 1990 ’s and Myanmar is still dependent on primary product exports. Among primary products, marine products, particularly frozen prawns, have recorded strong growth as a result of government policies to encourage fish culture and fisheries development through

1-15 collaboration with other countries. In the case of forest products, their overall export share has slightly declined because of government policies of strictly restricting the export of logs and promoting exports of processed wood products. Among agricultural products, rice exports have shown an increasing trend due to the government ’s plan to increase rice production although the actual composition of exported agricultural products shows much fluctuation from one year to another because of the impacts of natural disasters, etc. As far as industrial products are concerned, the development of export products and export- oriented industrialization have been in progress coupled with a government policy of actively encouraging inward investment, resulting in gentle export increases centering on ready-made garments and footwear. Exports of gems and jewelry have also increased.

The main importing countries are Singapore and India, followed by Thailand and Hong Kong. The shares of other importing countries are almost level with one another as the ratio for China, which was the main importing country in the 1980 ’s, has declined with a comparative increase of that for the EU and North America, etc.

Table 1.1-11 Exports by Type of Commodity

Unit: Kyat in million

1991/92 (%) 1993/94 (%) 1995/96 (%) 1996/97 (%) Agricultural products 1,011 34,5 1,358 32.1 2,321 46.1 1,981 36.1 Rice and Broken Rice 251 8.6 268 6.3 440 8.7 128 2.3 Pulses and Beans 429 14.6 724 17.1 1,358 27.0 1,272 23.2 Rubber and other Agricultural 289 9.9 300 7.1 451 9.0 464 8.5 products AnhualProdacts 4 $ 000 9 8.2 Marine Products 156 00# 358 8.7 887 1&2 Prawn NA 262 6.2 407 8.1 560 10.2 Forest Products 945 mg# 50# M03 23*7 Teak log / conversion 668 22.8 741 17.5 903 17.9 854 15.6 Hardwood log / conversion 263 9.0 500 11.8 146 2.9 131 2.4 Plywood and other forest products NA 108 2.6 208 4.1 301 5.5 Minerals & Geras 111 339 8.0 4.0 ggg 4.7 Gems and Jewelry 53 1.8 156 3.7 126 2.5 152 2.8 NA #0001 080# 449 3.2 Ready Made Garments NA 220 5.2 300 6.0 402 7.3 Others (Includes border trade) 700 23.9 534 12.6 265 5.3 593 10.8 Total 2,932 100.0 4,227 100.0 5,033 100.0 5,488 100.0 Source: Review of the Financial, Economic and Social Conditions for 1995/96,1997/98

1-16 Table 1.1-12 Exports by Country (Export) Unit: Kyat in million 1990/91 % 1992/93 % 1994/95 % 1995/96 % 1996/97 % (6) Asian Countries 2,775 93.7 3,055 m 4,111 76.1 4*232 83# 4,403 80,2 South East Asian Countries 1*275 43# 1*277 34# 2,373 43,9 2*104 41.7 2,062 37# Singapore 846 28.6 602 16.5 834 15.4 987 19.6 1,007 183 Thailand 388 13.1 600 16.4 543 10.0 535 10.6 544 9.9 Malaysia 41 1.4 60 1.6 102 1.9 148 2.9 305 5.6 Other Asian Countries 1,500 50.6 ####48# 1,738 9 #2,128 42.2 %341 42# China 396 13.4 339 93 278 5.1 195 3.9 336 6.1 Hong Kong 248 8.4 329 9.0 269 5.0 359 7.1 414 7.5 Japan 223 7.5 150 4.1 262 4.8 256 5.1 374 6.8 Republic of Korea 16 0.5 28 0.8 40 0.7 72 1.4 53 1.0 India 524 17.7 616 16.9 695 12.9 1,037 20.6 929 16.9 Others 0005 63 600 #0 1*294 23,9 812 16.1 1*085 19.8 EU 92 3.1 106 2.9 96 1.8 152 3.0 281 5.1 North American Countries 5 0.2 76 2.1 284 5.3 259 5.1 267 4.9 (7) Total 2,962 100.0 3,655 100.0 5,405 100.0 5,044 100.0 5,488 100.0 Source: Review of the Financial, Economic and Social Conditions for 1994/95,1995/96,1997/98

2) Imports

The economy of Myanmar is dependent on imports in all aspects. Up to the 1980 ’s, the ratio of capital goods (raw materials and others) in the import statistics was as high as 80 - 90%. The minor import proportion of consumer goods was presumably the result of the non ­ inclusion of illegal cross-border trade in the statistics. The legalization of cross-border trade in 1988 and thereafter resulted in the statistics from midway through the 1990 ’s reflecting the reality of consumer good imports to a better extent. The sudden surge of consumer good exports at that time was a consequence of this legalization. Imports of construction machinery showed a sharp increase, reflecting the construction boom in the 1990 ’s, and a rapid increase of machinery/equipment as a result of active capital investment in the manufacturing/processing industry, prompted by the government policy of encouraging the inward investment of foreign capitals, was also noticeable. Imports of transport equipment also recorded substantial growth in line with the construction boom.

The main exporting countries to Myanmar are Singapore and Japan, followed by Thailand and China. Imports from China, which was the largest exporting country during the socialist regime in Burma, have been declining while imports from Singapore rapidly increased in the 1990 ’s with Singapore overtaking Japan to become the largest exporting country at present. The ratio of imports from Southeast Asia, which was slightly less than 30% at the

1-17 beginning of the 1990 ’s, began to rapidly increase in the mid-1990 ’s to reach the present stage of accounting for slightly more than 40% which is almost equivalent to the combined import ratio from Japan, China and South Korea.

Table 1.1-13 Imports by Type of Commodity Unit: Kyat in million 1991/92 % 1993/94 % 1995/96 % 1996/97 % Consumer Goods 586 10.9 1,3n 17.6 2,724 26.4 2,061 17.5 Durable goods 223 4.2 238 3.0 735 7.1 744 6.3 Foodstuffs 168 3.1 842 10.6 1,605 15.6 758 6.4 Textiles 39 0.7 170 2.1 294 2.9 449 3.8 Raw materials & spares for 1,523 28.5 ggg 26.9 2,377 23.1 3,102 27.0 hater-industry use Raw materials 1,035 19.4 1,820 23.0 2,019 19.6 2,787 23.7 Tools & spares 488 9.1 308 3.9 358 3.5 395 3.4 Capital goods 1,571 ###000 ### 40,0 Construction materials 415 7.8 508 6.4 1,067 10.4 1,395 11.8 Machinery & equipment 471 8.8 824 10.4 798 7.7 1,489 12.6 Transport equipment 638 12.0 1,364 17.2 1,624 15.8 1,681 14.3 Commodity unspecified 1,063 #0# lllll;gggg 15.1 1,821 15.5 (Includes border trade) (8) Total 5,337 100.0 7,923 100.0 10,302 100.0 11,779 100.0 Source: Review of the Financial, Economic and Social Conditions for 1995/96,1997/98

Table 1.1-14 Imports by Country (Import) ______Unit: Kyat in million 1990/91 % 1992/93 % 1994/95 % 1995/96 % 1996/97 % Asian Countries 3,875 70.2 4,606 85.9 7,270 87 3 9,107 88,4 10,145 86.1 Sottito East Asian Countries %m 27,9 1,722 @8# 3,177 38,1 4421 40,0 5,062 4&3 Singapore 532 9.6 576 10.7 1,216 14.6 1,819 17.7 2,971 25.2 Thailand 555 10.0 696 13.0 830 10.0 1,319 12.8 1,192 10.1 Malaysia 383 6.9 329 6.1 782 9.4 616 6.0 690 5.9 Other Asian Countries 2,836 ## 49,1 4,986 IBil MUllI 43.7 China 1,205 21.8 946 17.6 1,019 12.2 1,434 13.9 1,116 9.5 Hong Kong 32 0.6 40 0.7 253 3.0 169 1.6 439 3.7 Japan 903 16.3 1,536 28.6 1,963 23.6 2,506 24.3 2,465 20.9 Republic of Korea 199 3.6 176 3.3 395 4.7 403 3.9 439 3.7 India 37 0.7 124 2.3 309 3.7 345 3.3 603 5.1 Others 1,648 ###73* 1111###22,7. j—l 11.6 1,634 EU 585 10.6 249 4.6 335 4.0 676 6.6 468 4.0 North American Countries 690 12.5 242 4.5 122 1.5 362 3.5 922 7.8 (9) Total 5,523 100.0 5,365 100.0 8,332 100.0 10,302 100.0 11,779 100.0 Source: Review of the Financial, Economic and Social Conditions for 1994/95,1995/96,1997/98

1-18 (6) Government Finance and Interest Rates

Myanmar ’s fiscal deficit is running at a level of 6% and the government has responded by increasing the money supply, pushing up inflation as evidenced by the two digit price inflation rate.

Table 1.1-15 Government Finances

1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 Receipt (Kyat in million) 54,987 65,033 81,104 106,229 128,576 163,979 286,795 Expenditure (Kyat in million) 67,298 77,127 96,622 135,876 167,396 215,718 352,080 Balance (Kyat in million) -12,311.0 -12,094.0 -15,517.0 -29,647.0 -38,819.0 -51,739.0 -65,285.0 Balance / GDP -6.6 -4.8 -4.3 -6.2 -6.4 -6.5 -6.1 Consumer price inflation (%) 32.3 21.9 31.8 24.1 25.2 16.3 29.7 Money supply growth (%) 34.4 34.6 19.8 41.1 28.2 31.0 Source : Embassy of Japan in Myanmar

The central bank rate was revised in 1989 for the first time in 14 years and continued to increase to 15.0% as of June, 1996. Following such a steady increase, the interest rates for deposit and other accounts at state banks also increased within the limit of the central bank rate. While the interest rates of state banks are determined by the central bank, those of commercial banks can be freely determined within a range of between -3% and +6% of the central bank rate as stipulated by the Central Bank Law.

The financial reform from 1989 onwards has made a certain achievement in that interest rates are revised in accordance with the government ’s financial policy of improving the savings rate. The real interest rate, however, is deep in negative territory because of the high two digit inflation rate since 1987. It is, therefore, essential for the government to adopt a flexible interest policy, taking the inflation rate into consideration.

1-19 Table 1.1-16 Interest Rates

Unit: % 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Central bank rate 4.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 12.5 15.0 15.0 Deposit rates Call deposits 0.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 Fixed deposits Three months 1.0 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 9.5 12.0 12.0 Six months 1.5 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 10.0 12.5 12.5 Nine months 2.0 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5 10.5 13.0 13.0 Savings bank accounts (Basic rate) 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 12.0 12.0 Savings Certificates 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 15.0 15.0 (Twelve-year maturity) Lending rates Cooperatives / Private Sector Working capital loans 8.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 Mid-term loans (up to five years) 12.0 12.0 12.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 Long-term loans (over five years) 12.0 12.0 12.0 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 To village banks (Agriculture) 8.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 To farmers 12.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 Source: Central Bank of Myanmar

1.1.2.3 Labour

(1) General

The employed population in Myanmar accounts for 39% of the total population. Under the military regime since 1988, the ratio of employed population rate in the public sector has declined as the employed population in the private sector has increased. Wages are still low even though they have been rising due to the effects of inflation. The average monthly wage is US$ 20 - 30 (compared to some US$ 60 in Indonesia and some US$ 150 in Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand). While the school enrollment ratio in secondary or higher education is low, Myanmar ’s adult literacy rate (for 15 years or older) of 87.9% (1990) is high and is ranked third among Southeast Asian countries. This is much higher than that of other developing countries, such as Bangladesh, Kenya and Zambia, of which the GNP per capita is similar to that of Myanmar. The quality of workers is comparatively good, reflecting the national character of being hardworking and keen to learn new skills.

1-20 The proportion of young people, i.e. less than 15 years of age, in Myanmar is as high as some 33.4% of the total population. The ratio of people between 15 years of age and 59 years of age in the working population is approximately 58.9% and that of people of 60 years of age or more is approximately 7.5%, indicating an abundant working population.

The employment structure shows that agriculture accounts for some 65%, followed by commerce at some 10% and manufacturing at some 8%, and this structure has remained practically the same since the 1980 ’s. Compared to neighbouring countries, the employment ratio in primary industries is as high as some 70% while that in manufacturing and commerce in Myanmar are the lowest. While the employed population has been steadily increasing in these three sectors, increased employment in the construction sector has been particularly noticeable.

The unemployment rate has been slightly higher than 4% throughout the 1990 ’s but the real unemployment rate, including family workers without a wage, is believed to be much higher at 30%.

(2) Employment

The government does not permit foreign companies operating in Myanmar to employ foreign nationals except for highly specialist technical positions. Any job appointment of a foreign national must have the permission of the government. The minimum age for employment is 18. If the recruitment of five or more persons is planned, a job vacancy note describing such employment conditions as the type(s) of work, number of vacancies and required qualifications), etc. must be submitted to the township labour office and a list of job seekers who meet the conditions are selected from the registered list of job seekers and is sent to the advertiser by the said office. Direct recruitment through the appointment column of newspapers and magazines is possible. In the case of large-scale recruitment, direct negotiations with the Ministry of Labour is one option. The trial employment period is usually one month and no retirement benefit must be paid for those who are rejected after the trial period. The retirement benefit is generally equivalent to one month ’s wage for service of one year. The employment of local people by foreign companies operating in Myanmar is subject to the provisions of the Employment and Training Law and the Employment Restriction Law, etc.

(3) Working Hours

While the working hours at manufacturing plants, etc. are usually eight hours a day and 44 hours a week, 48 hours a week are permitted. A minimum of 30 minute ’s rest is required for five hours

1-21 of work. In the service sector, the common working practice is eight hours a day and 48 hours a week.

(4) Wages

Wages are paid monthly in kyats, US dollars or FECs. There is no gender gap and wages are determined on the basis of the type of work and ability. A bonus is not a compulsory requirement but is usually paid twice a year at the rate of some half of the monthly wage each time.

(5) Work Morale

People in Myanmar are generally diligent. However, the work morale of government officials and employees of state enterprises appears to be relatively lower than that of people working for private companies, suggesting a lingering effect of the socialist regime. The establishment of an ability-based wage system is necessary to further improve the work morale.

Table 1.1-17 Labor Force Unit: million 1981 1986 1991 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Population Total, as of 1 October 33.78 37.8 41.55 43.92 44.74 45.57 46.4 47.26 Labor force Employed 13.79 15.41 16.01 17.23 17.59 17.96 18.37 Unemployment 0.62 0.27 0.71 0.83 0.85 0.9 ••• •••

Total 14.41 15.68 16.95 19.98 20.49 21.95 22.52 • •• Unemployment rate (%) 4.3 1.72 4.19 4.15 4.15 4.1 4.08 4.07 Agriculture 9.21 9.95 10.52 11.12 11.27 11.38 11.51 Manufacturing 1.1 1.17 1.12 1.41 1.48 1.57 1.67

Mining 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.12 **•

Others 3.41 4.21 4.29 4.59 4.72 4.88 5.07 ... Source: Asian Development Bank

1-22 Table 1.1-18 Distribution of Employed Population by Occupation and Industry

Unit: % Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Indonesia Philippines Singapore Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry and Fishing 69.1 60.3 26.0 54.9 45.4 0.3 Mining and Quarrying 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.1 Manufacturing 7.2 11.1 19.9 10.0 10.6 27.6 Electricity, Gas and Water 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.5 Construction 1.2 3.8 6.3 3.0 4.3 6.5 Wholesale and Retail trade and Restaurants and Hotels 8.9 11.2 18.2 14.2 13.7 22.6 Transport, Storage and Communication 2.5 2.7 4.5 3.2 5.1 10.0 Financial Institution 7.7 0.0 3.9 0.7 1.9 10.9 Community, Social and Personal Services 3.0 10.4 19.9 12.8 17.8 21.5 Activities not Adequately Defined 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: International Labor Office, Yearbook of Labor Statistics 1994 Note: Malaysia for 1990/91, Thailand for 1991/92 and other countries for 1992/93

1.1.2.4 Industries

The dependence of industrial activities in Myanmar on primary products has already been mentioned. Table 1.1-19 and Table 1.1-20 show the GDP by sector and the annual GDP growth rate by sector in Myanmar respectively.

Table 1.1-19 Gross Domestic Product by Sector Unit: Kyat in million 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Agriculture 126,113.90 194,991.20 260,800.50 321,550.40 367,232.90 Livestock & Fishery 21,165.50 27,862.70 32,366.50 36,439.60 46,244.00 Forestry 3,622.40 4,181.00 4,497.40 4,795.10 6,120.00 Energy & Mining 1,304.80 1,704.00 2,416.20 2,982.20 4,311.50 Processing & Manufacturing 17,277.50 24,617.50 29,515.90 41,347.50 48,306.80 Electric Power 463.1 652.7 1,218.40 1,750.50 1,89430 Construction 4,506.50 5,211.00 7,738.70 13,057.00 18,096.10 Transport 4,671.30 6,399.30 12,258.90 17,055.70 20,310.70 Communications 932.3 1,015.20 1,252.00 1,662.10 1,840.50 Financial Institutions 367 521.2 768.1 1,041.10 1,24030 Social & Administrative Services 6,691.60 8,702.20 9,906.40 10,703.60 11,373.80 Rental and Other Services 5,822.90 6,943.20 8,607.00 11,334.50 13,890.60 Trade 56,455.90 77,519.50 101,427.70 139,882.50 174,576.00 Total 249,394.70 360,320.70 472,773.70 603,601.80 715,437.70 Source: Review of The Financial, Economic and Social Conditions for 1996/97

1-23 Table 1.1-20 Annual Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product by Sector

Unit: %

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Agriculture 12.40 4.70 6.70 5.50 3.70 Livestock & Fishery 4.50 4.80 6.00 3.00 9.70 Forestry -3.30 1.00 -14.30 -3.90 1.50 Energy & Mining 20.00 11.00 14.90 15.00 9.50 Processing & Manufacturing 10.80 9.40 8.50 7.50 5.20 Electric Power 31.10 24.40 4.80 6.60 7.90 Construction 11.20 11.70 15.70 27.20 24.50 Transport 9.10 9.20 11.20 7.30 4.50 Communications 26.00 8.50 20.40 22.10 9.00 Financial Institutions 15.10 38.40 47.30 34.80 18.20 Social & Administrative Services 2.90 7.20 6.80 5.50 4.70 Rental and Other Services 3.60 3.50 4.00 6.30 5.80 Trade 8.90 4.60 7.00 5.60 4.40 Total 9.70 6.00 7.50 6.90 5.80 Source: Review of The Financial, Economic and Social Conditions for 1996/97

Although Myanmar has good development potential in terms of unexploited natural resources and excellent human resources, etc., the inadequate infrastructure has delayed the country ’s development. Particularly serious is the recent electric power supply shortage even in Yangon. The causes range from a temporary water shortage to more structural factors, such as the aging of the power generation, transmission and distribution equipment and the increased demand due to the rapid increase of modern buildings. The main industries in Myanmar, i.e. agriculture, livestock and fisheries, mining, manufacturing and communications, are outlined next.

(1) Agriculture

Myanmar is traditionally an agricultural country and agriculture still demands the most important position in the domestic economy. The GDP share of agricultural production exceeds 50% and agriculture accounts for 65% of the total employment.

During the period of Burmese socialism prior to 1988, agricultural policies centered on three principles, i.e. nationalization of farmland, compulsory purchase of agricultural products by the government at low prices and centrally planned cultivation. Government control spread over many aspects of agriculture and strict restrictions were imposed. However, this regime dampened the zest of farmers for increased production. The slow progress of the expansion of irrigation

1-24 facilities, etc. also contributed to the stagnancy of agricultural production which was Myanmar ’s lifeline. The depressed mood in the agricultural sector led to a qualitative decline of agricultural products, in turn causing the stagnation of their exports. In order to solve this situation, the government liberalized the trade of agricultural products in 1987. Although this measure improved incentives in the agricultural sector, it also stimulated steep price increases of agricultural products.

Table 1.1-21 Production of Main Crops

Unit: 1,0001 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Cereals Paddy 14,837 16,760 18,195 17,953 17,083 Wheat 139 108 89 78 87 Maize 208 204 284 275 317 Millet 137 144 123 150 148 Pulses Matpe (Black gram) 226 192 285 371 393 Pedisein (Green gram) 150 171 272 337 375 Butter bean 42 38 31 35 34 Peboke (Soy bean) 30 34 50 66 74 Others 305 269 307 341 401 Oilseeds Groundnut 433 431 500 593 597 Sesamum 237 223 304 304 345 Sunflower 96 83 117 164 170 Others Potatoes 143 173 146 187 197 Cotton (lint) 68 43 86 165 163 Jute 39 27 35 43 39 Rubber 16 16 27 26 26 Sugarcane 3,281 2,719 2,254 3,251 4,386 Tobacco 11 23 18 22 18 Coffee 1 1 1 2 2 Source: Review of The Financial, Economic and Social Conditions for 1996/97

Having learned from the impacts of the liberalization of agricultural trading, the present government has partially re-introduced the compulsory government purchase system while promoting liberalization in a gradual manner. In addition, the government emphasizes (i) the participation of private companies in the fertilizer market through the liberalization of fertilizer

1-25 trading to deal with the shortage of imported chemical fertilizers caused by the decline of the foreign reserves and (ii) the development of infrastructure to expand agricultural production.

While the mechanization of agriculture is making progress, the dependence on imported diesel oil has proved to be an impediment for swift mechanization.

Myanmar possesses a large land area and has large potential of land resources for cultivation and for further expansion of the cultivable land. Of the total area of 167 million acres, equivalent to 27% of the total land area, only about 13% is under cultivation. The government affords incentives to cultivate the cultivable wastes for the sake of expansion of the cultivated land. There is also a great potential for further expansion of mixed and multiple cropping areas, especially in lower Myanmar where the moisture content of soil and water availability are much better than in Upper Myanmar. In Upper Myanmar, especially in the dry belt zone, cultivation is done with water drawn from networks of irrigation facilities, but the total cultivation area under irrigation accounts for only 21% of the net area sown. Enhancement and diffusion of the irrigation facilities in Upper Myanmar is due to boost yields in agriculture. The Ministry of Agriculture has take every effort to raise the irrigation coverage of the cropped area to 25% in the short term.

Table 1.1-22 Land Use

Unit: 1,000 acres

Type of Land 1980/81 81/82 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 97/98 Share*

Net Sown Acreage 20,160 20,401 20,127 20,145 21,009 21,028 21334 22,018 22341 1336%

Current Fallow 4,697 4,505 4,724 4,662 3,820 3,869 3,448 3,042 2,743 1.64%

Cultivable Waste 21,179 21,123 20,625 20,478 20345 20,196 19,954 19,698 19,601 11.72%

Reserved Forest 23,965 24,578 25,062 25,128 25,182 25305 25,475 25304 25,694 1537%

Other Forest 55,228 54,848 54,970 54,903 54,802 34,713 54385 54359 54,443 3236%

Others 41,953 41,731 41,678 41,870 42,028 42,075 42,197 42372 42369 25.34%

Total 167,186 167,186 167,186 167,186 167,186 167,186 167,186 167,186 167,191 100.00%

Source: Review of the financial, Economic and Social Conditions for 1985/86,1994/95,96/97 Economic Development of Myanmar Note: *Share for 1997/98

1-26 (2) Livestock and Fishery

1) Livestock

livestock breeding of pedigree stock, cattle, buffalo, sheep, goat, pig, and poultry, etc. forms an integral part of the rural economy. Ownership of livestock is characterized by small individual herds and flocks. For the development of the cattle industry, vast pastureland with suitable climate is indispensable, and such lands are available in different regions in Myanmar.

People in Myanmar are not in the habit of eating beef. They are thinking cattle are human ’s partners in agricultural activities working as draught cattle and don ’t raise them for food. Beef when available as foodstuff is stringy meat from retired draught cattle which is unfit to eat. Fowl meat is widely consumed as a major foodstuff in Myanmar and also as highly reputed in the world market as hen egg for their excellent quality.

Table 1.1-23 Production of Livestock and Livestock Products

A/U 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 Draught cattle Thousand Nos. 6,427 6,496 6,627 6,808 6,971 Fresh milk Thousand tons 527 533 538 549 564 Hide & skin Thousand Nos. 469 477 483 494 508 Skin (goat & sheep) Thousand Nos. 756 776 787 828 865 Total meat production Thousand tons 191 198 214 244 266 Beef Thousand tons 48 49 49 50 52 Mutton Thousand tons 7 7 7 8 8 Pork Thousand tons 45 47 58 66 73 Fowl meat Thousand tons 74 80 84 101 113 Dude meat Thousand tons 15 14 14 17 18 Turkey, geese &others Thousand tons 2 2 2 2 2 Total egg production Million Nos. 945.8 946.8 9915 1101.7 1232.6 Fowl egg Million Nos 807.7 818.1 864.6 951.3 1071.3 Dude egg Million Nos 136.8 126.7 126.8 150.3 161.2 Guini-fowl and quail egg Million Nos 13 2 0.1 0.1 0.1 Feather Kg 169 182 191 211 237 Silk cocoon Kg 4 6 7 11 27 Honey (Breeding) Kg 102 100 96 115 120 Source: Review of The Financial, Economic and Social Conditions for 1996/97

1-27 2) Fishery

Fisheries in Myanmar can be classified into fresh water fisheries and marine fisheries. Fresh water fisheries are made possible through vast river systems and heavy rainfall, and fish culture operations are also extensively undertaken.

Myanmar has a long coastline, 2,832km in all and its exclusive economic zone is 486,000km 2. The Maximum Suitable Yield (MSY) of the Union of Myanmar is estimated at about 1.05million metric tons per year, while the performance in 1992 was only 0.59 million tons. It means that yield in fishery sector in Myanmar has a good potential for even doubling.

In recent years, Thailand and other countries have been paying increasing attention to the marine resources of Myanmar and the Government of Myanmar has been actively promoting the sale of fishing rights to foreign fishing boats and the introduction of foreign capital in the fisheries sector. Since 1990, the government has expanded the scope of granting fishing rights to include privately-owned fishing boats as well as foreign fishing boats. Many Thai fishing boats equipped with much more modern equipment compared to the aged fishing boats of Myanmar are operating in the fishing grounds of Myanmar waters and recording a large catch. Many types of fish and shellfish, including lobsters, are caught in Myanmar ’s waters but there is an absolute shortage of ice-making plants to produce ice for fish storage onboard Myanmar fishing boats and of on-shore cold storage facilities. Consequently, fishing boats from Myanmar often sell their expensive catch at low prices to Thai fishing boats equipped with modern storage facilities.

Marine products in Myanmar include harvest fish, hilsa, Spanish mackerel, sardines, hairtail, grouper, Nemipteri and Ariidae in addition to prawns which are the leading marine product. The combined export value of prawns, mainly black tiger, white and pink, is US$ 100 million (including cross-border trade). The total export volume and value of marine products in FY 1996 were 42,808 tons and US$ 124 million respectively. The latter accounted for some 15% of the country ’s total export value. The government has been implementing various measures to make the best of Myanmar ’s marine resources, including a joint fisheries development programme with foreign capital and the launch of joint ventures.

1-28 Table 1.1-24 Total Production of Fish and Prawns by Nature of Catch

Unit: t

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 In-shore fish and prawns fishing 310,841 315,405 221,191 168,705 236,839 Off-shore fish and prawns fishing 78,240 76,773 380,605 285,902 397,557 Total 596,580 600,981 601,796 454,607 634,396 Source: Review of The Financial, Economic and Social Conditions for 1996/97

3) Use of Public Land

As in the case of the agricultural sector, the livestock and fisheries sectors are given incentives by the government, including the use of government land for business purposes. The use of public land is subject to a maximum area which is decided depending on the specific purpose of land use. Although the maximum length of public land use is set at 30 years, extension is possible. The sales tax and income tax may be reduced depending on the type of livestock or cultured marine product. Because of these measures, the culture of prawns, etc. in the fisheries sector is increasing and these products are gaining a good reputation as export products.

(3) Forestry

Myanmar is indeed very rich in forest resources, as the forest covers about 50.81 per cent of the total land area. According to its climatic zones from temperate to arid and tropical, several variant forests types exist. They are the temperate forests in the north, the deciduous forests and dry forests in the central part and semitropical rain forests in the south. There are over 8,570 different plant species, including 2,300 tree species, 850 kinds of orchid, 96 varieties of bamboo and 32 different types of cane. In 1996/97 reserved forest area totaled 103,954km 2 and 6 national parks had been established.

Forestry as well as agriculture sectors are the mainstays of Myanmar ’s export. A shift in emphasis from log export to export of its conversion has been observed in recent government export policy. Main products of the forestry sector are teak, hardwood, bamboo, cane, etc. Of these, teak is highly reputable in the world market. Myanmar enjoys the largest share of the world teak trade. The forest area with significant teak resources covers about 6.1 million hectare. Export items of teak are veneer, plywood, furniture, curving, joinery, flooring products, moulding, etc. There are different species of hardwood such as Padauk (Pterocaipus

1-29 macrocarpus), Pynkado (Xylia dolabriformis), Kanyin (Dipterocarpus species), Taungthayet (Swintonia floribunda), Pine (Pinus insularis), etc. Bamboos are processed into bamboo pulp. Other products are cutch for tanning and dyeing of fish nets, etc., tan-bark for tanning and lac used for vanishes, polishes, sealing wax, etc.

The total annual allowable cut (AAC) for teak and hardwood is 3.65 million cubic meters. Average annual cut for recent ten years was 2.18 million cubic meters, of which production by State enterprise (MTE) was 0.8 million cubic meters.

Bamboo grow mostly mixed with other tree species, while in the Rakhine State there is a single patch of Kayin-Wa bamboo growing in pure stands stretching over about 7,770km2. On a cutting cycle of 10 years, the annual yield is expected to be 2.0 million tons, an equivalent of about 0.8 million tons of bamboo pulp. In the Tanintharyi Division, there is a single pure bamboo patch and also some mixed with other species. The growing stock covers an area of 1,860km 2. On a cutting cycle of 10 years, the annual yield is expected to be 0.4 million tons, an equivalent of about 0.16 million tons of bamboo pulp.

Cane grows in abundance in Myanmar. The annual potential yield is estimated at about 70 million pieces. At present, only a few species are exported. However, with the present extent of cane resources, there is an ample scope for expansion of its extraction and for exports.

Since 1993, forestry has been a major means of acquisition of foreign currency for both the public sector and the private sector in Myanmar. The government positively invites investment from overseas in forestry production with a view to expand exports as well as in lumbering, timber processing and furniture production.

Table 1.1-25 Production of Forest Products

Unit 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Teak Thousand t3 341 332 272 235 220 Hardwood Thousand t3 1418 1580 1217 1233 1292 Firewood Thousand t3 18003 17988 18044 17936 17680 Charcoal Thousand t3 801 418 296 213 214 Bamboo Million Nos. 940 919 933 927 967 Cane Million Nos. 81 81 82 104 79 Source: Review of The Financial, Economic and Social Conditions for 1996/97

1-30 Table 1.1-26 Production Index of Forestry Sector (Quantum Index 1992=100)

Unit: % 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Teak 94.10 91.60 75.10 64.80 60.70 Hardwood 89.00 99.20 76.40 77.40 81.10 Others 99.50 95.20 94.50 92.10 91.80 Source: Review of The Financial, Economic and Social Conditions for 1996/97

(4) Mining

Myanmar is richly endowed with metallic and non-metallic mineral resources as well as energy resources such as crude oil and natural gas.

Mineral resources in Myanmar consist of crude oil, natural gas, coal, copper, lead, zinc, gold, silver, tin and tungsten as well as such rare stones as jade and rubies, etc. A review of the production system is currently in progress in the non-ferrous metal mining sector. Among non- ferrous metals, the production volume of tungsten is ranked eighth in the world.

Following the shift to a market economy in 1988, the government has introduced a product sharing scheme to make minin g a major foreign currency earning industry in an attempt to revitalize the traditionally public-run mining sector through the introduction of private capital in wide-ranging areas, including prospecting, mining and transportation. As there is a vast area which has not yet been prospected, active prospecting by European, US and Australian companies, etc. is in progress, mainly aiming at the discovery of gold deposits. In fact, a major gold deposit has been found recently. Two state enterprises are mining metals and others under the supervision of the Ministry of Mining. One of these companies specializes in mining resources for the industrial production of iron and steel while the other specializes in the mining of precious stones.

The main precious stones are rubies, sapphires and jade. These precious stones and jewelry are important sources of foreign currency for Myanmar. Since 1989, the official sales figure has exceeded US$ 11 million a year. The Mogok Mine in the Mandalay Division is one of the world ’s leading ruby mines and also produces, garnets, peridots, tourmalines, aquamarines, amethysts, moonstones, etc. High quality jade is mainly produced in Kachin State and is polished to serve wide-ranging applications, from jewelry of the highest class to sculpture and general decoration. A new precious stone mine has been found by geologists in the northern part of Shan

1-31 State and there are high expectations in regard to the mining of high quality precious stones in the future.

The main mining products for industrial application are coal, gypsum, dolomite, limestone, feldspar, refractory clay and barite.5

Table 1.1-27 Production of Energy and Minerals

A/U 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Energy

Crude oil Million US barrels 5.4 5.2 4.2 3.5 6.8

Natural gas Million m3 764 971 1,231 1,380 1,774

Compressed natural gas Million m3 1 2 2 2 2 Minerals

Tin concentrates (65%) t 387 544 648 575 577

Tungsten concentrates (65%) t 75 113 152 148 227 Tin and tungsten mixed t 108 73 111 55 266 concentrates (65%)

Tin, tungsten an sheelite t 1,282 1,300 1,324 1,082 1,450 mixed concentrates

Tin concentrates (74%) t 51 427 854 975 708

Tungsten concentrates (67%) t 46 92 79 92 312

Refined tin metal (99.9%) t 158 165 179 310 340

Gold t 8 5 7 5 8 Nan-metallic minerals

Jade t 890.5 583.6 793.7 1,791.40 1,134.50 Gem Thousand carat 2,271.60 4,393.80 13,976.30 16,186.70 18,131.00 Dolomite Thousand ton 2,093.00 2,153.90 2,804.20 3,139.40 3,464.60 Source: Review of The Financial, Economic and Social Conditions for 1996/97

(5) Manufacturing

Among the various manufacturing industries, light industries are controlled by the First Ministry of Industry while heavy industries are controlled by the Second Ministry of Industry. The First Ministry of Industry supervises eight state enterprises which produce wide-ranging consumer goods, including textiles, clothing, food, beverages, pharmaceuticals, soap, face and handwash items, lacquerware, aluminum products, steel products, cement, marble, porcelain, rubber products, leather, packaging materials, paper, paint and jute carpets. Both the production quantity and quality are, however, inadequate and the modernization and repair of equipment are required

1-32 to improve both aspects. The government is hoping for foreign investment to improve and modernize the production equipment in order to enhance the production volume and to improve the product quality. 6

Table 1.1-28 Production Index by Commodity Group (Quantum Index 1992=100)

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Food & beverages 112.7 126.1 131.2 1373 1413 Clothing and wearing apparel 129.5 116.7 161.9 176.8 175.8 Construction materials 105.1 115.8 1053 109.0 114.7 Personal goods 100.1 101.2 134.7 1673 145.6 Household goods 102.2 105.6 120.0 127.7 1463 Printing & publishing 101.9 115.3 118.9 177.6 223.9 Industrial raw materials 106.2 99.0 130.9 186.6 177.4 Mineral & petroleum products 100.6 98.1 112.9 103.3 149.7 Agricultural equipment 68.5 407.5 384 381.6 631.0 Machinery & equipment 122.6 670.6 545.3 5043 872.9 Transport vehicles 120.7 120.8 182.5 290.0 343.0 Electrical goods 75.3 26.3 33 51.9 63.2 Miscellaneous 114.1 113.7 1473 138.4 162.6 Total 111.9 121.7 131.3 141.0 147.0 Source: Review of The Financial, Economic and Social Conditions for 1996/97

(6) Transport and Communications

The long-term isolation policy under the socialist regime in the past has delayed the development of modern transport and communication networks in Myanmar. Even though the government has been making active efforts to develop such networks to support the economic development of the country, the present quantity and quality of roads, electricity supply, ports and airports, etc. are far from satisfactory.

1-33 Table 1.1-29 Internal Freight Volume

Unit: 1,000 t

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Total internal freight volume 91,441 94,856 98,046 101,095 104,131 Transportation by State owned 7,210 7,667 7,852 7,811 7,716 Myanma Railways 3,181 3,269 3,350 3,162 3,252 Inland Water Transport 2,963 3,172 3,194 3,176 3,160 Road Transport 978 1,132 1,188 1,361 1,192 Myanmar Five Star Line (coastal transport) 88 94 120 112 112 Transportation by other State owned organizations 3,963 4,272 4,635 4,737 6,340 Transportation by co-operative & private 80,268 82,917 85,559 88,547 90,075 Transportation by co-operative transport organizations 4,239 4,627 3,841 4,824 4,622 Transportation by private transport organizations 76,029 78,290 81,718 83,723 85,453 Source: Review of The Financial, Economic and Social Conditions for 1996/97

In the transport sector, there are plans to strengthen the existing infrastructure to support tourism and a plan to construct an international airport near Mandalay is in progress together with plans to improve and extend the domestic air transport and railway networks. A circular commuter railway line project is currently being implemented in Yangon with the assistance of the OPEC. A new industrial zone is also being created at a site 18 km downstream of Yangon River from urban Yangon and work is in progress to construct a major port to handle containers and other cargoes.

The situation of communication services in Myanmar is poor and the diffusion rate of telephones is a mere 1% even in the capital, Yangon. While the communication demand has been rapidly increasing due to the expansion of economic activities in the private sector since liberalization, it is far from being met because of the slow development of communication infrastructure. There is a growing demand for an improved telephone system and the government is facing the need to formulate and implement a modernization programme for the telephone system.

The present picture is that of a gradual introduction of telephone exchanges, telegramme offices and satellite communication centres in major cities as many foreign companies are establishing joint ventures with the MCE, the state-run telephone company.

1-34 Table 1.1-30 Communication Networks

(Number)

1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 Post Offices 1,160 1,165 1,185 1,206 1,222 1,238 Telephones 99,037 128,695 147,107 169,530 199,017 232,107 Telegraph Offices 368 384 398 401 414 420 Telex Services 213 229 229 223 211 203 Facsimiles 454 593 1,051 1,417 1,695 1,945 Auto Telephone Installed (Towns) 36 40 42 50 55 62 Source: Review of The Financial, Economic and Social Conditions for 1996/97

1.1.2 Situation of Energy and Power Sector

1.1.2.1 Energy

Myanmar is also well endowed with energy resources like crude oil and natural gas. The Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise is the only State enterprise, which carries out exploration, drilling, production and transportation of crude oil and gas in the country. Its exploration operations have extended from inland to offshore since 1971, and the largest gas deposit was discovered in the Gulf of Mottama as early as 1982.

In 1989, the Ministry of Energy had invited foreign oil companies for exploration and development. At present, 12 international oil companies have been permitted under production sharing contracts for petroleum exploration and production.

In the 1997/98 annual plan N the net output value of the energy sector conyrising oil and natural gas at 1985/86 constant prices was projected at 308 million kyat, while the performance was 207 million kyat according to the provisional data achieving 67.1% of the plan target. Although there was a shortfall of 1997/98 plan targets, a growth rate of 37.7% was registered over the 1996/97 provisional actual.

The quantum index of the production of energy sector with 1985/86 as the base year was 85.3 according to 1997/98 provisional data, reflecting a decline in the production of crude oil from existing wells. However there are good potentials for increased production from drilling of test wells being

1-35 undertaken by State enterprise (MOGE) in collaboration with foreign oil companies on 11 sites onshore and 15 sites offshore.

With a view to fulfilling the domestic requirements and for export of oil and natural gas as means of acquisition of foreign currencies through expansion in extraction from test wells and existing wells, the following efforts were made; Exploration and extraction works of crude oil and natural gas by MOGE and foreign oil companies on contractual basis; Enhancing production from existing oil wells; Reducing wastage and losses; Exploration of new oil fields in onshore areas; and Infrastructure development such as installation of pipelines of natural gas for production of it on commercial scale for export.

Table 1.1-31 Production of Crude Oil and Gas

1996/97 1997/98 1994/95 1995/96 (provisional actual) (provisional)

Crude oil (million barrels) 4.2 4.3 3.8 6.1

Natural gas (million cub. feet) 45,599 54,025 58,579 68,540

Compressed natural gas (million cub. feet) 68 72 92 113

Source: Review of The Financial, Economic and Social Conditions for 1997/98

Table 1.1-32 Production Index of Energy Sector (Quantum Index 1985=100)

1996/97 1997/98 1988/89 1991/92 1995/96 (provisional actual) (provisional)

Crude oil 47.2 53.5 41.7 37.0 59.1

Natural gas 118.8 97.5 164.8 178.9 209.4

Index for Total 59.7 61.2 63.2 61.7 85.3

Source: Review of The Financial, Economic and Social Conditions for 1997/98

1-36 Figure/Table 1.1-39 Forecast of Peak Load

PEAK LOAD INCFEASE FISCAL YEAR (M/V) % M/V 1998-99 780 — — 1999-00 897 15% 117 2000-01 1,032 15% 135 2001-02 1,186 15% 154 2002-03 1,364 15% 178 2003-04 1,527 12% 163 2004-05 1,711 12% 184 2005-06 1,917 12% 206 2006-07 2,147 12% 230 2007-08 2,361 10% 214 2008-09 2,597 10% 236 2009-10 2,857 10% 260 2010-11 3,142 10% 285

Source: MEPE Planning Department, “Statistics”, April, 1998

1-42 (3) Electricity Tariff

The electricity tariff in Myanmar was substantially revised on 1st March, 1999 although the uniform charge of 0.5 kyats/kWh for government ministries and agencies remained unchanged. The uniform charge for public servants and domestic users was replaced by a system consisting of different unit prices for different types of users. The charge for domestic and public welfare use now consists of three tiers: 0.25 kyats/kWh for both public servants and domestic users up to a consumption level of 50 kWh, 2.5 kyats/kWh for public servants and 10 kyats/kWh for domestic users for a consumption level of between 51 kWh and 200 kWh and 25 kyats/kWh for both for a consumption level exceeding 200 kWh.

According to the MEPE, the previous unit price has not been changed up to a monthly household consumption level of 50 kWh* in order to min imize any adverse effects on general households. However, as the charge suddenly increases when the consumption level exceeds 201 kWh, there appears to be much illegal use (constituting non-technical loss) to meet consumption above this level. The charge for small industrial users, commercial users and bulk users has been considerably increased from 3 kyats to 25 kyats.

A special foreigner ’s charge is applicable for local representative ’s offices of foreign companies and hotels, etc. where payment in foreign currency can be expected and payment in US dollars is required. The tariff for foreigners remains unchanged. Even though the tariff differentiates between domestic, public welfare, commercial and other users, the actual unit price of 0.08 US$/kWh is uniform and the basic charge is 0.5 US$/kWh.

As these changes took place fairly recently, their effects have not yet been fully felt. However, it is hoped that the financial health of the MEPE will gradually improve. The current electricity tariff is shown in Table 1.1-40.

* Monthly consumption of 50 kWh may appear low by the standards of industrial countries but there is little need to exceed this consumption level for ordinary households in Myanmar.

1-43 Table 1.1-40 Electricity Tariff of MEPE 1 unit = 1 kWh User Type Electricity Tariff (Myanmar kyats/kWh) Electricity Tarif (US$ kWh) Unit Charge Fixed Charge Unit Basic Fixed Charge Government Public Servants; Ordinary Users Basic Instrument Charge Charge (Instrument (kyat/kWh) Pensioners (kyat/kWh) Charge Maintenance (US$/kWh (US$/kWh Maintenance Charge) (kyat/kWh) (kyat/hp) Charge ) ) (US$/Meter) (kyat) Domestic 0.50 1 - 50 units : 0-50 units : 0 Single phase: 25 0.08 0.5 Single phase: 0 51 - 200 units: 1 Three phase: 50 Three phase: 51-200 units : 2 Public 0.50 201- units : 201- units : - Single phase: 25 0.08 0.5 Single phase: Welfare 2 2 Three phase: 50 Three phase: Small 0.50 25 25 3 Single phase: 25 0.08 0.5 Single phase: Industrial Three phase: 50 Three phase: C.T. Meter: Commercial 0.50 25 25 3 Three phase: 0.08 0.5 Three phase: C.T. Meter: Bulk 0.50 25 25 3 Three phase: 0.08 0.5 Three phase: C.T. Meter Public Upto 40W: 12 Upto 40 W; 12 Upto 40 W: 12 Lighting kyats; 4 kyats kyats; 4 kyats kyats; 4 kyats for for every 10 for every 10 W every 10 W W thereafter thereafter thereafter Temporary 0.50 1-50 units : 1-50 units : 0 Single phase: 0.08 Lighting 0 51 - 200 units: 1 Three phase: 51 - 200 units: 2 201- units : 201- units : 2 2 Source: MEPE 1.1.3 Necessity of Realization of CDM

Power generation in Myanmar principally relies on natural gas and oil, accounting for some 60% of the total output with the remainder being produced by hydropower generation. Although the installed capacity of the existing generating units as of 1999 is some 1,200 MW, the actual generation capacity of some 754 MW is much lower. This large gap can be attributed to the incapacity of the hydropower stations due to severe drought in the last three years (although the river water level was restored to some 70% of the conventional level in July, 1999) and the considerable aging and deterioration of the generating units.

In addition, the nationwide electricity loss is currently as high as some 33%, consisting of technical loss associated with generation, transmission and distribution and non-technical loss caused by human factors.

The maximum domestic power demand is 850 MW which exceeds the available generation capacity of 754 MW by some 100 MW. Accordingly planned load shedding are the norm in some regions. In the capital (Yangon) region, the power demand is leveled throughout the day by the allocation of permitted operating hours for large consumers with their consent so that there is no peak demand.

While the exploitation of natural gas as a fuel for generation is making progress, most natural gas is exported to Thailand with a minor proportion being used for domestic consumption, including fuel for gas turbine generation. Because of the limited supply of natural gas, some power plants have recently begun to use diesel oil which is more expensive than natural gas.

Generation emphasis on hydropower, the unit generation cost of which is lower than thermal power, is planned. However, hydropower stations require huge investment and a long construction period and cannot be considered as a quick fix for the electricity supply shortage.

Improvement of the efficiency of the existing generating units without spending much time and improvement of the transmission and distribution of electricity to users with little loss are, therefore, urgent tasks for Myanmar. The planned project involving the improvement and capacity increase of the Shwedaung and the Mann Thermal Power Stations and reduction of the transmission and distribution loss in Mandalay should be urgently implemented in view of its short implementation period and relatively low cost. Even though the overall improvement will only account for several

1-45 percent of the national output, the steady implementation of this and similar projects is what is most required in Myanmar at present The increased output of electric energy by means of consistent improvement from generation to distribution will reduce the required output to meet the same demand, therefore contributing to a reduction of the greenhouse gas emission as called for by the COPS.

The MERE has promised to cooperate with the project, which will be jointly implemented by Japan and Myanmar in line with the spirit of the COPS, within the framework of "a clean development mechanism ” (CDM).

Under this mechanism, when an industrialized country and a developing country jointly implement a project designed to reduce greenhouse gas emission and/or enhance the absorption of greenhouse gases, part of the reduced volume of greenhouse gas emission by the project may be counted as part of the target reduction volume of the industrialized country in question through a certain certification procedure.

1.2 NEED OF THE ENERGY CONSERVATION TECHNOLOGY INTRODUCTION 4

The most of facilities, which gas turbine thermal power generations in Myanmar, were built in the first half of 1980 from the 1970's. Therefore the power generation output is only about 20MW, and the efficiency is also small, 20 to 25%. In addition to this, the fiscal year 1998 was shortage of water because of rain therefore, the power supply has to been relay on thermal power generation. Although gas and Diesel oil are usually used, consumption of gas is restricted at present, and diesel oil, high unit price, is used mainly. In the case of using Diesel oil, the efficiency will decrease furthermore.

The electric power loss of transmission/distribution line consisting of technical loss and non-technical loss is 33.2% in 1997-98. In other words, about 40% of the power supply is wasted.

Carrying out the Project can improve about 17% of efficiency of thermal power generation and reduce about 7% of electric power loss. Therefore, the finance of MERE will be also improved substantially.

Furthermore MEPE puts up the electric power loss reduction and improvement of the efficiency as the goal of this fiscal year to intend the reconstruction of finance.

1-46 The energy conservation technology introduction to the thermal power station and transmission/distribution equipment in Myanmar are a very significant thing and MEPE agrees in the entire goal and wish it strongly.

1.3 RESULT DIFFUSION

As the preceding paragraph, MEPE intends significance and needs of the Project highly position and the technology level is globally established. Therefore, it is hopefully mplemented as soon as possible. There are many gas turbine thermal power stations and transmission/distribution equipment that can be carried out the similar improvement in Myanmar. If the cooperation of the funds is obtained, the Project, which is reasonable and can be carried out in a short term, will be diffused with high possibility.

&

1-47 CHAPTER 2

PROJENT PLAN Chapter 2 PROJECT PLAN

These chapter mentions field surveys effect, studies of the project proposal based on it and studies accompanied with project execution of following areas. • Shwedaung Gas Turbine Power Station • Mann Gas Turbine Power Station • Transmission and distribution line of Mandalay Division

< Thermal Power Station Improvement >

2.1 Project Planning

2.1.1 Overview of Target Area

Before examining improvements to existing facilities, it is necessary to investigate and understand current conditions of them Table 2.1-1 gives an outline of the targeted Shwedaung and Mann gas turbine power stations. The current conditions at each power station are described below.

Table 2.1-1 Outline of Power Stations Name of station Shwedaung GTPS Mann GTPS Location BAGO Division MAGWAY Division Install & Total Capacity (Rated one when atmospheric 18.45MW X 3units 18.45MW X 2units 55.35 MW 36.90 MW temperature is 45°C) Commissioning Date 1982-1984 1980 Fuel Type Natural Gas & H.S.D. Natural Gas Note) H.S.D.: High Speed Diesel Oil GTPS: Gas Turbine Power Station

Shwedaung gas turbine power station, located in Bago Division approximately 280 km north of Yangon, the capital of Myanmar, is made up of three Frame-5 gas turbines and has a relatively small power generation facility possessing a total output of approximately 55 MW. The voltage of generated electric power is stepped up by 230 kV and is transmitted to Yangon Division and Mandalay Division. The total of generated watt-hour from the start of operations in 1982 to 1998 is approximately 3,422 GWh. Average power output is approximately 12.5 MW, which is an operating rate of 65% as

2-1 2.12 Contents of the Project

Concerning Shwedaung and Mann power station, this power station whose efficiency of single shaft gas turbine is low is made to improvement to the high efficiency combined cycle station by combining HRSG and steam turbine. In order that there are some methods for this reason, a case study is execution in the following clause and an optimum project in myanmar is selected

21.2.1 Case Studies

Based on consideration of the current condition of existing facilities as described in the preceding sections, facilities improvement plans designed to raise the thermal efficiency of units at each power station shall be formed Four alternative cases are considered for both power stations at Shwedaung and Mann. Moreover, plans that incorporate the use of existing facilities are based on the assumption that ample inspections and rehabilitation of existing facilities are carried out

(1) Combined cycle conversion of existing facilities (Case 1) In the case where the existing gas turbines are rehabilitated and modified into combined cycle power plant at Shwedaung gas turbine power station, it is appropriate that combined cycle power plant is arranged into a multi-shaft type because that the output of each existing gas turbine is small. And conversion to the multi-shaft type is easy because it is separated gas turbines and steam turbine system completely. Multi-shaft combined cycle power plant refers to the configuration whereby one steam turbine is operated by multiple gas turbines. Since output of the steam turbine becomes large due to the fact that steam generated by multiple heat recovery steam generator which uses heat of gas turbines exhaust gas operates a single steam turbine, thermal efficiency of the type tends to be higher than in a single shaft system. Moreover, because the gas turbines and steam turbine are operated on separate shafts, by installing a bypass exhaust stack for gas turbine, even if trouble should occur in the steam turbine or heat recovery steam generator, operation using only the gas turbines can be carried out without introducing the exhaust gas to the heat recovery steam generator. Obviously plant efficiency declines, but an important source of power is ensured in the event of a critical energy supply situation. In the case of operating as a thermal power unit for base load, the multi-shaft combined cycle alternative is considered to be the best Concerning Mann power station, since three gas turbines were constructed in the past and one of these was transferred to a different site near the border, there is no problem regarding utilities and space should one more gas turbine be added Therefore, when one also considers the urgency of the

2-3 power demand situation, it is thought that it is the optimum alternative to adopt combined cycle conversion upon first installing an additional gas turbine. Incidentally, at the combined cycle power stations (Thaketa, Ahlone and Hlawga) where existing facilities have been utilized, the multi-shaft combined cycle system is adopted.

(2) Additional installation of new gas turbines (Case 2) Since both Shwedaung and Mann power stations have been in service for almost 20 years and have not undergone adequate inspections during that time, it is not hard to imagine that degradation and deterioration are extreme. Accordingly, operating the existing gas turbines as they are, installing new additional gas turbines is another case worthy of consideration The new gas turbines should be the Frame-6 type, which offer higher thermal efficiency and make it possible for spare parts at other power stations to be utilized

(3) Additional installation of combined cycle power plant (Case 3) In the case where existing gas turbines are operated as they are and a single series of combined cycle generation equipment is newly installed, for the reasons indicated below, rather than a multi-shaft combined cycle power plant which uses a Frame-5 gas turbine, a single-shaft combined cycle power plant which uses a Frame-6 gas turbine is more appropriate. • Output and thermal efficiency are both high • Construction unit costs are cheap • Works period is short

A single-shat combined cycle plant consists of a single steam turbine shaft directly connected to a gas turbine shaft. The most common configuration of power stations in Japan consists of numerous single-shaft combined cycle plants arranged in unison. Since the output of each power plant is small as compared with one of the recent conventional steam turbine power plant, load fluctuations can be coordinated by altering the number of operating power units, and this means that the generation efficiency does not fall even when load is low. Since many of the combined cycle power plants in Japan are used for adjusting load, single-shaft system are adopted in a high proportion of cases. However, because the gas turbine shaft and steam turbine shaft are directly connected, operation using only the gas turbine separated from the steam turbine is not possible, and operation is limited in that the gas turbine cannot be operated if any trouble occurs in the steam turbine. Moreover, since output per one steam turbine is small, efficiency over the overall system is slightly lower than in the multi-shaft system. 4

(4) New installation of combined cycle power plants (Case 4)

2-4 In the case where the exiting gas turbine is removed and two-shaft combined cycle power plants are newly installed, as in the preceding case, a single-shaft combined cycle power plant that uses a Frame-6 gas turbine is appropriate. Outline layout drawings of Cases 1 through 4 at Shwedaung and Mann power stations are indicated in Figures 21-1 (1) through (5) and 21-2 (1) through (5).

2-5 BASE EXISTING GT» Q/T TYPE PG3341 OUTPUT (Reted) 54. 6 MW Q/T (GAS) 18. 3 MW Q/T (OIL) 18. 1 MW *2 CONP1ORATION OPEN CYCLE Q/T EFFICIENCY 23. 9 X (GAS) 24. 2 X (OIL) TEMPERATURE 4St DESIGN FUEL GAS A OIL VO

USD OIL TANK « I (N

Figure 2. 1-1 (l)

THE UNION OF MYANMAR MYANMA* ILECTS1C FORI* ENTIRFRIH BAII FOB HWIDAUNO OAI TUBBINE FORIB ITAT104 GENERAL ARRANGEMENT tokyo iucibic ram mvia cu.m N itiTnmw m UtkV/llkV iikv/mv LJ

CASE -1 MODIFICATION TO MULTI-SHAFT TYPE C/C OF EXISTING GTs AND REPLACEMENT OF THEM WITH NEW QTe AFTER 10 YEARS Q/T TYPE PG5341 OUTPUT 84. 9 MW Q/T 39. 0 MW S/T 29. 9 MW CONFI ORATION MULTI SHAFT TYPE EFFICIENCY 39. 8 % TEMPERATURE 45T5 DESIGN FUEL GAS & OIL r- INITIAL COST 38. 8 MM US# HSO OIL TANK « 1 CM FUTURE COST 33. 9 MM US#

Figure 2. 1~1 (2)

' ’ ".....—1«■

«mai noun THE UNION 01 NY4NN4E IffANMa EUCTE1C POWE ENTUPNII: CAII -1 FOB MWIOAUNO OAI TUBI1N1 POMU ITATI01 GENERAL ARRANGEMENT TOKYO IUCTI1C MB IBWICB OR.LIB, s

CASE -a 10 YEARS REUSE OF EXISTING GTs AND BUILD OF NEW

FUEL GAS A OIL 00 INITIAL COST 40. 2 MM US$ CM H10 OIL TANK « I

Figure 2. 1 — 1 (3)

Wrf -V-

TMI UNION OF lUMUl MYANMAR 1LICWC FORI ENTimill CAII -I FOR IWIOAUM OAI TOWNS FONSR ITATIOI GENERAL ARRANGEMENT tokyo sucnic ran sawia ml.ite SWITCHYARD AREA

CASE -3 STATION flKS 10 YEARS REUSE OF EXISTING QT. AND BUILD OF NEW S-C/C NEW Q/T TYPE PG6101 (FA) OUTPUT 144. 0 MW NEW C/C 89. 8 MW EXISTING 54 2 MW COMF1ORATION SINGLE SHAFT TYPE EFFICIENCY 41. 5 % TEMPERATURE 45C DESIGN C8HTSCL lllIUHHfi IXUTIIW UNIT FUEL GAS k OIL ON INITIAL COST 69.2 MM US#

EXTENTION AREA

Figure 2. 1 — 1 (4)

i. :...a ...... u«

THE IMION OF MYANMAR MYANMAR ELECTRIC POWER ENTERFRIS1 CASE -) FOR feHWIDAUMO QAI TURIINE POWER STATU GENERAL ARRANGEMENT tokyo iLicnic roan mvia cu.m 1 SWITCHYARD ARBA

CASE -4 STATION #i*S SCRAP OP EXISTING GTe AND BUILD OP NEW S-C/C NEW Q/T TYPE PG6101(PA) OUTPUT 179. 6 MW NEW Q/T 107. 6 MW NEW S/T 72. 0 MW CONP1ORATION SINGLE SHAPT TYPE EFFICIENCY 51. 1 % TEMPERATURE 45C DESIGN CONTROL BUILDING FUEL GAS -1 0 INITIAL COST 128.7 MM US$

EXTENTIOH ARRA

Figure 2. 1-1

' ....L " --

THE UNION OP MYANMAR MYANMAR 111CTR1C POWI ENTERPRISE CASE -4 FOR MWEOAUNQ OAE TURBINE POWER I TAT 10) GENERAL ARRANGEMENT TOKYO ELECTRIC TONER SERVICE COL,LTD, SWITCHYARD AREA

CONTROL IU1UIM

BASE 3 CONTROL ROOM EXISTING GT. Q/T TYPE PG5341 OUTPUT (Rited) 36. 9 MW

COOLING PHCTT] G/T (GAS) 18. 5 MW *2

CONP1ORATION OPEN CYCLE Q/T EFFICIENCY 25. 9 X EXTENTIOM AREA TEMPERATURE "4SC DESIGN 4>7 FUEL -11

AIR INLIT/ -T' EXISTING UNIT

Figure 2. 1-2 (1)

THE UNION OF HYANNAR MYANMAR IUCTIIC WIR ENTERTRUI Iasi roi MANN OAI TUIIINX POIU STATION GENERAL ARRANGEMENT TOKYO IUCTI1C WB SOVICI Cdl.lTR

4 SWITCHYARD ARIA

SQmflL.MUmiM

CASE -1 "3 CONTROL ROOM MODIFICATION TO MULTI-SHAFT TYPE C/C OF EXISTING GTe AND REPLACEMENT OF THEM WITH NEW GTe AFTER 10 YEARS Q/T TYPE PG5341 OUTPUT 84. 9 MW 93. 0 MW 29. 9 MW CONFIORATION MULTI SHAFT TYPE EFFICIENCY 39. 8 * TEMPERATURE 45X5 DESIGN

INITIAL COST 5 2. 2 -12 FUTURE COST 22. 6 MM US*

EXISTING UNIT

THE UNION OF MYANMAR MYANMAR ELECTRIC

0AI TURI1NI FOUR STATION GENERAL ARRANGEMENT REDUCE CR.LTR SWITCHYARD AREA

CONTROL 1UILD1HQ

CASE -2 3 CONTROL ROOM 10 YEARS REUSE OP EXISTING GTe AND BUILD OP NEW 0/T G/T TYPE PG6101 (PA) OUTPUT 90. 3 MW NEW G/T 54. 2 MW EXISTING 36. 1 MW CONPIORATION OPEN CYCLE Q/T EFFICIENCY 28. 2 X J TEMPERATURE 45C DESIGN / FUEL GAS A OIL 4/

INITIAL COST 39. 7 MM USS -13 CN

1\MB mill MVU

EXISTING UNIT

Figure 2. 1- 2 (3)

THE UNION OF Iff AMUR Iff AMUR ILSCTRIC PORU ENTIRTRIII CASS -I TOR MANN 8AI TUU1N1 POWER STATION GENERAL ARRANGEMENT TOKYO ELECTRIC POUR SBWICR COL.LTl CASE -3 10 YEARS REUSE OF EXISTING OTi AND BUILD OF NEW S-C/C NEW Q/T TYPE PG6101 (FA) OUTPUT 125. 9 MW NEW C/C 89. 8 MW EXISTING 38. 1 MW CONFIORATION SINGLE SHAFT TYPE EFFICIENCY 43.8 * TEMPERATURE 45C DESIGN FUEL GAS & OIL 14

INITIAL COST 69. 4 MM US$ -

Figure 2. 1-2 (4)

THE UNION OF NYAMUR MYANMA* ELECTRIC FORE ENTERPRISE CASE -1 FOR MANN HAS TURBINE PONE* STATION trm1-V GENERAL ARRANGEMENT TOTO ELECTRIC PONE* SERVICE CR.LTR SWITCHYARD ARIA

CflHIML IUIIP1M

CASE -4 3 CO»I»OL 100M SCRAP OP EXISTING GTi AND com if wu BUILD OP NEW 8- •C/C Q/T TYPE PG6101 (PA) OUTPUT ITS. 6 MW NEW Q/T 10T. 6 MW NEW S/T 7 2. 0 MW CONPIORATION SINGLE SHAPT TYPE EPPICIXNCY 51. 1 X TEMPERATURE 450 DESIGN PUXL GAS 15

INITIAL COST 130. 0 MM US# - CN

Figure 2. 1 — 2 (5)

THE UNION OP MYANNAB MYANMA* ILICTtIC POME ENTISPSU CAII -4 TOR MANN OAI TUMI MI rO«n STATION GENERAL ARRANGEMENT TOKYO 1UCTXIC POU* SHVICI Ca.LTD 2.1.2.2 Project Selection

Table 2.1-2 shows a comparison of the above four cases for Shwedaung power station. (The same trend holds true for Mann power station, too).

Table 2.1-2 Comparison of Project Cases (Shwedaung Power Station) Item Casel Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 3-3-1 3-GTS& 3-GTs & 2-New C/C Composition of facilities C/C (C/C) 1-New GT 1-New C/C Generation output First lOyears 845 108.4 144.0 179.6 (MW) Next lSyears 845 542 89.8 179.6 Thermal First lOyears 39.7 28.2 415 51.1 efficiency (%) Next lSyears 39.7 30.8 51.1 51.1 Initial rough investment (MM 428 40.2 69.2 128.7 US$) Future rough investment (MM 42.9 0 0 0 US$) Total investment (MM US$) 85.7 40.2 69.2 128.7 Note: Future investment is anticipated for the existing gas turbine after 10 years in order to purchase a new gas turbine of similar specifications (Case 1). The existing gas turbine will be removed after 10 years (Cases 2,3).

The following conclusions can be drawn from the above table: • If priority is placed on reducing C02 emissions, it is thought that Cases 3 and 4, which entail high efficiency combined cycle generation, are the better alternatives. • In terms of initial investment and construction period, Case 2, which involves installation of a single gas turbine, is most advantageous. However, from the viewpoints of thermal efficiency and power generation cost, Case 4, which involves installation of combined cycle power plant, is probably the best alternative.

Moreover, the following points were raised by MEPE: • In view of the critical power demand situation in Myanmar, it is imperative that new power sources be found quickly. However, there is difficulty in securing funds for power plant construction and existing facilities must continue to be used into the future. It is the wish of the Government of Myanmar that existing facilities are not dismantled but continue to be used, even if they be somewhat deteriorated

Upon discussing the above alternative cases based on the aforementioned considerations, in view of the fact that MEPE has incorporated a plan for combined cycle conversion into it’s generation expansion program for medium to long term (See Table 21-3). It was agreed to advance

2-16 examination based on Case 1, which does not entail major revision of existing facilities and responds to the available amount of fuel supply and increasing demand for power. Moreover, in the case where fuel supply to future facilities is made possible, the local side stated its desire to install additional combined cycle power plants on the sites of Shwedaung and Mann power stations.

Table 2.1-3 Medium to Long Term Generation Expansion Program of MEPE

YEAR GENERATION EXPANSION PROGRAM cosr*i MMTTfiK

1996-1997 IFR Gas Tbrbine Power Plant (100MW) Thaketa Combined Cycle Power Project (34.9MW) 23.50 1997-1998 Zaungtu Hydro Power Project (20MW) 20.00 under Construction, 1999 end Ahlone and Hlawga Combined Cycle Power Project (120MW) 80.00 1998-1999 Mann Gas Tbrbine Power Station Extension (19MW) 10.00 Shwedaung and Mann Combined Cycle Power Project C53MW) 45.00 Off-Shore Gas TXirbine Power Project, Block (1) (400MW) 80.00 Sub-total 258.50

1999-2000 Ml 2000-2001 Zawgyi ( tt ) Hydro Power Project (2QMW) 20.00 Baluchaung No. 3 Hydro Power Project (48MW) 70.00 Monchaung Hydro Power Project (90MW) 60.00 Off-Shore Combined Cycle Power Project, Block (1) (200MW) 120.00 2001-2002 Paunglaung Hydro Power Project (280MW) 350.00

2002-2003 Off-Shore Gas Thrbine Power Project, Block (2) (400MW) 80.00 Bilin Hydro Power Project (240MW) 200.00 Ktmchaxmg Hydro Power Project (80MW) 60.00 Sub-total 960.00

2003-2004 Kalaywa Steam Power Project flOOMW) 80.00 Off-Shore Combined Cycle Power Project, Block (2) (200MW) 120.00 2004-2005 Off-Shore Gas TXirbine Power Project, Block (3) (400MW) 80.00 2005-2006 Yeywa Hydro Power Project (360MW) 360.00 Off-Shore Combined Cycle Power Project, Block (3) (200MW) 120.00 2006-2007 Ml Sub-total(Q 280.00

2007-2008 Ywathit flhanlwiri) Hydro Power Project (3500MW) Suh-tntfllfDl 420000 ______Tbrfjil fnr flariftration Fmanmnn Program ------SflQftfiO *1: Estimated Project Cost of Foreign Currency Portion

2-17 2.1.23 Selection of Heat Recovery Steam Generator (HRSG)

Heat recovery steam generators are facilities that convert thermal energy from the exhaust gas of gas turbines into steam thermal energy. The thermal energy recovery rate is determined by four parameters: the number of pressure levels of steam, pressure of steam, temperature of steam, and gas temperature at the heat recovery steam generator outlet (generated under the given gas turbine exhaust gas conditions). Heat recovery steam generators can broadly be divided into horizontal heat recovery steam generators, in which gas turbine exhaust gas flows laterally, and vertical heat recovery steam generators, in which exhaust gas flows vertically. The generators can be further divided according to the method of circulation into natural circulating types and forced circulating types. The features of each heat recovery steam generator are given below.

(1) Horizontal heat recovery steam generator When exhaust gas flows laterally, since the heat exchanger tubes of the heat recovery steam generator are arranged vertically, circulatory force arising from disparity in the liquid density can be easily obtained even when the boiler is a natural circulating type. However, the installation area of the heat recovery steam generator is large and stack foundations are separately required as compared to the case of a vertical heat recovery steam generator. Accordingly, it is thought that construction cost is slightly higher than in the case of a vertical heat recovery steam generator.

(2) Vertical heat recovery steam generator The heat exchanger tubes of vertical heat recovery steam generators are arranged horizontally because the exhaust gas flows vertically. Accordingly, because the circulatory force declines in the case of natural circulation, it is common for forced circulation to be adopted in this type of generator. However, in recent times, from the viewpoint of reducing auxiliary power, the need for pump circulation has been removed in vertical heat recovery steam generators through adopting an appropriate drum height Since vertical heat recovery steam generators require a small installation area and the exhaust stack can be installed on top of the generator, the exhaust stack does not need to be long and construction cost is slightly cheaper.

(3) Forced circulation system The sure circulation of water inside a heat recovery steam generator is secured by installing a steam generator circulation pump. Particularly in the case of vertical heat recovery steam generators, forced circulation has beat commonly adopted until now, however, this method leads to higher construction and maintenance costs because of the need to install a circulation pump. However, by taking steps

2-18 such as putting a slope on the boiler piping and so on, circulatory force is improved. In this way, natural circulation has recently come to be adopted even with vertical heat recovery steam generators.

(4) Natural circulation system Because circulation is carried out using the difference in fluid density only, there is no need for a steam generator circulation pump. Natural circulation is adopted in the case of horizontal heat recovery steam generators. Not only are construction and maintenance costs cheaper, but the absence of extra equipment means that reliability is improved.

(5) Other conditions Heat recovery steam generators are divided into single pressure types, which have a single steam pressure level, and multiple pressure types, which have two or more steam pressure levels. In addition, there are re-heating multiple pressure types which have re-heaters attached. Single pressure type generators have the simplest steam and water systems because the steam generated from the generator is limited to one type. Conversely, in multiple pressure types, systems are slightly more complex, however, because the efficiency of heat recovery from gas turbine exhaust heat gas energy is improved, plant efficiency is also better. At the existing plants in the Project, since the amount of exhaust gas from gas turbines is relatively small, steam turbine output is minor, and the construction and maintenance costs are cheap, it is recommended that a single pressure type heat recovery steam generator be adopted.

2J3 Targeted GHG of the Project

The major greenhouse gas targeted at thermal power stations is carbon dioxide, which is discharged from chimney stacks. At Shwedaung and Mann gas turbine power stations, burning natural gas and diesel oil in gas turbine combustion generates C02. Moreover, since the Project entails combined cycle conversion utilizing the existing gas turbines, as is indicated in Table 4-2-1, total output will increase by approximately 30 MW (equivalent to the output of the one new steam turbine) at Shwedaung power station and by approximately 50 MW, which breaks down as 20 MW from the new gas turbine and 30 MW from the new steam turbine, at Mann power station. As for emissions of CO% these will not change in the case of Shwedaung power station, but will increase according to the one additional gas turbine at Mann power station. Accordingly, concerning the base line for greenhouse gas emissions, it shall be assumed that the additional future electric power is provided by existing gas turbines (through raising operating rate and load factor) and that the amount of greenhouse gases emitted in this case is the base line.

2-19 2.2 Outline of MEPE

2.2.1 Intention of MEPE

Following the way to mention even the electric power condition of 1.1.2, a electric power demand and a present power generation capacity of MEPE is not balanced. Moreover a practical power generation capacity has fairly declined by decrepitude of facilities. In addition to this status, it fell of a hydroelectricity power by rainy insufficiency the year before last, planing outage was execution in fairly areas. MEPE under such status is drafting the maintenance and construction plans for reinforcement of electric power supply power (see table 2.1-3), but execution has not been reached from a shortage of funds. This project is the matter which this can retrieval by a rare financial resources credit and short term under such status. MEPE is greatly interested in this project

222 Situation of Related Facilities (Outline, Specification, Operation)

2.22.1 Condition of Shwedaung power station

Operating record is shown in table 22-1. The total of generated watt-hour from the start of operations in 1982 to 1998 is approximately 3,422 GWh. Average power output is approximately 125 MW, which is an operating rate of 65% as compared to the rated output of 18.45 MW (when atmospheric temperature is 45%)). After all, the gas turbine units are operated at a relatively high load factor.

Table 22-1 Operating Record From 1982 Until 1998 Inclusive Name of Power Station Shwedaung GTPS Unit No. Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 3 Fired Hours (h) 116,000 88,000 69,000 Start-up Times ** 510 2391 3,809 Generated Watt-hour (MWh) 1,472045 1,060,593 889,215 Averaged Power Output fkW) 12700 12100 12900 *1: Data from 1985

Unit 1 is operated with priority and records more generated power energy and operating days since it is a gas fired turbine. On the other hand, since Units 2 and 3 are oil fired one, these generated watt- hours are limited and start-stop frequency is more.

Figure 22-1 shows annual change of generated watt-hour per year. Though there is fairly dispersion by a year, electric power generation of 1998 years has increased, in order that a thermal power makes

2-20 up

far Generated Power Energy (MWh) Generated Power Energy (MWh) Generated Power Energy (MWh)

an 100,000 100,000 120,000 100,000 120.000 140.000 40.000 80,000 20.000 60,000

40.000 60,000 80,000 20.000 aptitude Figure 0 0

i £

fell 2.2-1 ..... : . . . .

'

* of “ .... J.MIIIII

hydrodectricity ' Movements 00 mi s

s Unit Unit Unit . . . ! i i !

1 2 3

in Movements Movements

Movements power

Annual 2-21 ii i

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Amount

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Year

rain Year

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Amount Amount Generated Amount

Power

Energy The station work force numbers 130 in total There are four shifts each consisting of a superintendent and six operation staff in Operation Department, and other personnel consist of administration staff, accounting staff, maintenance staff, and so forth. Organizational Setup of the Power Station is shown in figure 22-2 Total personnel expenses are approximately 200,000 kyats/month. The average salary of public servants is 1,500 kyats/month. This is extremely low, even if (when) a number of bonuses each year is taken into account However, employees do not encounter trouble in finding food and residence because these things are provided by the state. Figure 4-1-2 shows the organization chart of the power station.

Power Station Superintendent

Store Staffs

Administrative Office ■ Staffs

Account office Staffs

Security Staffs

Mechanical maintenance Electrical maintenance

Mech.. engineers Elec, engineers

Skill workers Skill workers

Operation department

Senior shift engineers (4)

Shift- 1 Shift-2 Shift-3 Shift-4

Operation staff (6)

Figure 22-2 Organizational Setup of the Power Station

The installed Frame-5 gas turbines, that were designed by General Electric Company (GE) of the United States, were delivered by John Brown Company in the British. These gas turbines are equipped with two-cycle diesel engine starting system, which makes it possible for start-up to be achieved even in the case of blackout and is linked to the gas turbines via a torque converter. Although gas turbine revolutions are approximately 5,400 rpm, the generator is held to 3,000 rpm via a speed reducer that is connected directly with gas turbine.

2-22 Natural gas fuel is supplied by gas pipeline from Pyay Oil & Gas Field where is approximately 16 km away from Shwedaung gas turbine power station. The gas turbines of Shwedaung power station have been designed with dual type of fuel nozzles, which also enable diesel oil to bum. Diesel oil is regularly supplied by tank lorry. Due to the overall shortage of gas supply, Unit 1 of Shwedaung power station operates priority on gas fuel, Unit 2 switches over between gas fuel and diesel oil, and Unit 3 operates solely on diesel oil. Unit 2 has basically operated on diesel oil for the past six months (as of the time of survey in September 1999) due to the shortage of gas supply. And this unit can only operate on gas fuel in cases where the neighboring fertilizer plant stops operating and frees gas supply. Table 2.2-2 shows the facilities that are supplied with natural gas from Pyay Oil & Gas Field.

Table 22-2 Gas Supply Destinations Gas Consuming Gas Supply Plant Name Equipment MMCF/day Ton/day Ton/h Fertilizer plant Large boiler 125 253 10.5 Textiles plant Small boiler 0.5 10.1 0.4 Myanaung GTPS Three gas turbines 5.5 112 4.7 Methanol plant — 8.0 162 6.8 Shwedaung GTPS Three gas turbines 5.5 112 4.7 Total 32.0 649 27.0

2.22.2 Outline of Facilities

Table 2.2-3 shows the design data of gas turbines.

Table 22-3 Gas Turbine Design Data Design Data Natural Gas H.S.D. Type of Gas Turbine Open Cycle Single Shaft Heavy Duty Type Model Number MS 5001-PG 5341 Manufacture of Gas Turbine General Electric (Supplied by John Brown) Temperature (°C) 15 Atmospheric pressure (mbar) 1,013 Humidity (%) 60 Performance Data fkW) 24,250 23,700 Heat Rate (kcal/kWh) 3,087 3,130 Gas Turbine Exhaust Temp (°C) 41$6 Number of Turbine Stages 2 Stage Starting system 2 Cycle Diesel Engine Compressor Cleaning Method Rice Cleaning

2-23 The above table shows design data of the gas turbine when the atmospheric temperature is 15°C. However, both output and efficiency will fall when the annual average temperature is 30°C as is the case in the Project area. Table 2.2-4 shows the state of facilities under the site conditions (atmospheric temperature is 45°C). As can be inferred from the table, the fall in actual output and efficiency is far greater in the diesel oil-fired units than in the natural gas-fired unit Moreover, the service life of high temperature parts in the oil-fired units is roughly 80% of one in the gas-fired unit and oil fuel costs are higher than gas fuel ones. Therefore, there is little merit to be gained from oil-fired units. And a follow-up survey was done because Unit 1 was over-load, As a result, it is known that gas turbine exhaust gas temperature control set-point had been so lifted by a engineer that aged lowering of gas turbine capacity was made up for. It is necessary to take measures as soon as possible because reduction of high temperature parts ’ life is sure to result

Table 4-1-5 Current State of Facilities (45%)) Present Performance at Shwedaung Comparison Items Design Performance GTPS Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 3 Type of Fuel Natural Gas Distillate Oil Natural Gas Distillate Oil Distillate Oil Performance Data (kW) 18,450 18,050 18,700 13,400 16300 Heat Rate (BTU/kWh) 13,200 13,400 14,900 16,900 15,400 Heat Rate (kcal/kWh) 3,320 3,370 3,760 4,270 3,880 Thermal Efficiency (%) 25.9 25.6 229 20.2 22.2 Fuel Consumption (kg/h) 5,590 5,750 6,420 5,690 6,370 Exhaust Temperature (°C) 502 502 538 515 502 Note: The figures shown above are corrected from locally obtained data (when atmospheric temperature is 30°C).

2.2.23 Operating Conditions in 19%

Generated watt-hours, availability, and reliability at Shwedaung gas turbine power station in 1998 are as shown in Table 2.2-5. Generally speaking, fired hours is long in the exclusively gas-fired Unit 1 but short in Units 2 and 3, which use diesel oil. In spite of their short fired hours, Units 2 and 3 display extremely good figures for availability and rdiability. Moreover, although records show that approximately 60 trips were made in 1998, the total forced outage time was just 67 hours. This means that the forced outage time per trip was roughly one hour, indicating that units were immediately restarted in most cases.

2-24 REFERENCE: Availability: Probability of being available, independent of whether or not the unit is needed, includes all unavailable hours (UH), normalized by period hours (PH), units are %: Availability = (1 - UH/PH) X 100 (%) Where, UH: total unavailable hours (Forced out age, failure to start, unscheduled maintenance hours) PH: period hours Reliability: Probability of not being forced out of service when the unit is needed, indudes forced outage hours (FOH) while in service, while on reserve shutdown, and while attempting to start, normalized by period hours (PH), units are %: Reliability = (1 FOH/PH) X 100 (%) Where, FOH: total forced outage hours PH: period hours

Table 22-5 Operating Conditions in 1998 Shwedaung GTPS 1998% ITEMS No. 1 No. 2 No. 3 Operating Day 324 363 362 Fired Hours (h) 7,636 2,987 3,995 Total Watt-hour (GWh) 107 55 85 Stand-by Hour (h) 999 5,754 4,740 Planned Outage Hour (h) 99 5 0 Forced Outage Hour (h) 27 14 26 Frequency of start and stop 18 494 419 Plant Availability (%) 98.6 99.8 99.7 Plant Reliability (%) 99.7 99.8 99.7 Trip Times 8 16 34

2.2.24 Facilities Conditions Until Now

Intervals of gas turbine inspection as recommended by GE are as indicated in Table 22-6.

Table 2.2-6 Recommended Inspection Intervals Type of Inspection Type of Fuel Frequent Starts Continuous Service 6,000 h or 8,000 h or Gas & Distillate 600 Starts Annually Combustion Inspection 1,500 h or 4,000 h or Heavy 300 Starts Semi-Annually

2-25 12,000 h or 16.000 h- Gas & Distillate 1,200 Starts 24.000 h Hot Gas Path Inspection 6,000 h or 8.000 h- Heavy 600 Starts 12.000 h 24.000 hrs or 32.000 fa- Major Inspection Gas & Distillate 24.00 Starts 48. 000 h

However, due to the shortage of power supply throughout the whole of Myanmar and extreme deficiency of high temperature spare parts, the fact is that the above intervals recommended by GE are greatly deviated from in the operation of gas turbines. Unit 1 has so far recorded more than 120,000 fired hours, but it has so far only undergone one major inspection. Unit 3, too, has approximately 80,000 fired hours, but it has only received one major inspection, whereas Unit 2 has not undergone even one major inspection despite recording more than 90,000 fired hours. All the units have greatly deviated from the inspection intervals recommended by GE Since the maximum major inspection interval under conditions of continuous operation is 48,000 hours, this means that Unit 2 has been operating for approximately twice as many as this interval without receiving this inspection. Combustion inspections have been implemented a number of times during this period However, because replacement of the gas turbine, moving blades and stationary blades, etc. has not been carried out, it is thought that the unit is operating in an extremely dangerous state and it is urgently necessary to implement a major inspection and replace the high temperature parts. Inspection implementation records up to date are as indicated in Table 2.2-7.

Table 22-1 Inspection Implementation Records Unit No. Inspection Start Date Fired Hour Type of Inspection No.l 1 1988-1-21 32,486 a 2 1990-2-1 47,404 MI 3 1993-9-2 71,587 a 4 1994-3-7 76,080 a 5 1996-10-3 97,879 a 6 1998-4-20 110,793 a 7 1999-4-21 118,505 a No.2 1 1988-1-28 31,154 a 2 1991-1-9 46241 a 3 1993-2-20 59,838 HGPI 4 1997-7-26 83,826 Cl 5 1999-4-28 89,400 a No.3 1 1987-12-17 15,837 a 2 1990-9-5 34,070 a 3 1992-12-11 45,927 a 4 1993-11-13 50,511 a 5 1994-12-22 57,002 a 6 1997-2-15 63,495 MI 7 1999-7-1 72,675 a Note) Q: Combustion Inspection

2-26 HGPI: Hot Gas Path Inspection Ml: Major Inspection Records of combustion nozzle inspections have heat omitted

{1) Breakdown Outages (Trip Breakdowns) Gas turbine units at Shwedaung power station tripped approximately 60 times in 1998 and trip breakdowns arising from the same trouble occurred repeatedly. In particular, trips arising from flameout and exhaust g,is high temperature were extremely common. Some incidences of flameout were caused hv reduction of gas fuel supply pressure, but many trips due to flameout were made in response to system troubles. Exhaust gas high temperature trips were almost always the result of system troubles It is thought that the system troubles were caused by accidents of a detector. Facilities are currently being allowed to operate as they are because repairs cannot he made due to the shortage fr spare parts. Moreover, there does not appear to be much willingness to raise the necessary funds to deal with trouble. It the detector is faulty, this means that the detecting portion in question is not being monitored and the gas turbine unit is in an extremely dangerous state. judging from the number of unit trips made for the power station, it is imagined that considerable degradation exists in control equipment as well as gas turbine high temperature parts. Therefore, it is thought that comprehensive rehabilitation not just limited to high temperature parts is needed to practice, f igure 22-c shows the frequency and causes of trips.

Oatis«-s of Trip* on Shwedaung Gas Turbine Power Plants in 1998

Others times i

Fla me o u t 45% (26 times)

I xhaus i Gas High 1 emperature 5:"% (30 limes

Figure 2.2-3 Frequency and Causes of Trips

(2) Compressor Cleaning in order to maintain gas turbine efficiency and output it is necessary to wash gas turbine compressor

2-27 once every three or four months and to remove dust from the compressor and so preserve compressor efficiency. However, apart from the cleaning conducted during the two major inspections on Units 1 and 3, rice cleaning is only carried out once per year at Shwedaung power station. This lack of compressor cleaning has a major effect on compressor efficiency and gas turbine output and is one of the reasons why rated output cannot be achieved in the gas turbine. It is common for gas turbine compressor to be washed using water, but rice cleaning is the norms since the gas turbine is not equipped with water washing device at Shwedaung power station. However, various problems exist with this situation, for example, there is no rough guide for determining the rice cleaning interval because there is no outlet pressure gauge on the compressor. In any case, it is necessary to quickly establish the interval of compressor cleaning in order to restore the output and efficiency of gas turbine.

(3) Gas Turbine Inlet Filter Shwedaung gas turbine power station is unable to purchase a high efficiency filter installed in the gas turbine air inlet filter house due to lack of funds, and so it has been operating without this filter. A three-stage filter is installed in the air inlet filter house. The first stage filter is a dust louver which mechanically removes dust from the atmosphere. The second stage consists of a cloth filter, and the third stage consists of a high efficiency filter made of glass wool or paper, etc. The third stage high efficiency filter is the most important because it is able to remove the finest particles of dust By detaching the third stage high efficiency filter, fine dust is allowed to enter gas turbine compressor and this leads to corrosion of the moving and stationary blades of the compressor and reduces compressor efficiency. Moreover, if dust enters and blocks cooling air holes of the gas turbine, this can lead to damage of high temperature parts. Accordingly, in order to cope with stable operation in the future, it is essential that a high efficiency suction filter is purchased and is restored to the origin position soon. 4

(4) Lubricating Oil Cooling System The fin tube radiator, which is installed under the gas turbine air inlet filter house, is used to cool the cooling water for lubricating oil cooling system and currently has reduced functions. The primary cause behind this is that the cooling fan of the fin tube radiator is broken down. As was mentioned earlier, the cooling fan cannot be repaired due to a lack of maintenance funds. And there are no engineers who possess the maintenance technology because the gap between the fan and fin tube is very small. In addition, as a stopgap measure to raise the cooling effect while continuing operation, groundwater is directly sprayed onto the fin tube, but since calc alki, which contained in groundwater, attaches to the fin tube, the cooling effect is reduced and conditions are made even worse. Moreover,

2-28 there is a possibility that scale has attached inside the fin tube and is reducing cooling efficiency. Therefore, it is necessary to immediately carry out improvement of the fin tube radiator facilities. As a result of the above problems in the cooling system, temperature of the bearing supply oil has risen and operation is being continued with the drainage oil temperature at a high level. The objective of monitoring the drainage oil temperature is to detect problems in the bearing metal upon maintaining the bearing supply oil temperature at a set level. In the current situation, there is a strong possibility that the unit will trip if the oil temperature rises by a few degrees due to even a small change in the bearing metal temperature, and this is a very risky situation. Moreover, since it is possible that the cooling water temperature will rise even more in line with increase in the air temperature, the early improvement of facilities is required Gas turbine facilities such as Mann gas turbine power station and the newest Thaketa combined cycle power station have lubricating oil cooling systems installed separately, so it is recommended that a similar kind of cooling system be installed at Shwedaung power station.

(5) Inventory Control of Gas Turbine High Temperature Parts The following paragraphs describe current conditions regarding inventory control of high temperature parts, which are the most important portions of gas turbine equipment.

O Stocks of high temperature parts Current stocks of high temperature parts at Shwedaung gas turbine power station are as indicated in Table 2.2-8.

Table 2.2-8 List ofHigh Temperature Spare Parts in Stock Number of Parts Name of Parts Stocked at Present Hot Gas Parts Combustion Liner 5Nos Transition Piece 0 Combustion Wear Parts 0 Turbine 1st Stage Bucket lset Turbine 2nd Stage Bucket lset Turbine 2nd Stage Nozzle 0 Turbine 2nd Stage Ring Segment lset Instruments parts Flame Detector 6Nos Speed Pick Up 4Nos Igniter lONos Thermocouple lONos Ignition Power Supply INo Limit Switch 4Nos Pressure Gauge 12Nos Solenoid 2Nos

2-29 There are few spare parts in stock at Shwedaung power station and parts that had already been used before are often used again. The only new spare parts in stock are some combustion-related items, first and second stage moving blades, ring segments, combustion ignition plugs and a few types of control parts. The spare parts in stock are not enough to run three gas turbines, so the turbines are currently operating without inspections. Furthermore, in cases where accidents occur during operation, there is a strong possibility that repair will take a long time due to the shortage of spare parts, so the power station is unable to respond to the current tight power demand situation. When one considers that the existing facilities are being operated despite having a number of broken down parts, it is urgently necessary to bolster stocks of spare parts, implement inspections and repairs of broken down parts, and replace high temperature parts, etc Criteria for Repair and Replacement is shown in Table 2.2-9.

Table 2.2-9 Criteria for Repair and Replacement of High Temperature Parts Repair Interval Replace Interval Combustion Liners 8,000 40,000 Transition Pieces 12,000 48,000 Fuel Nozzles 8,000 24,000 Cross-Fire Tubes 8,000 24,000 lst-Stage Nozzles 24,000 48,000 2st-Stage Nozzles 24,000 48,000 lst-Stage Buckets 24,000 72,000 2st-Stage Buckets 24,000 72,000 Row Divider (Distillate) 8,000 24,000 Fuel Pump (Distillate) 8,000 24,000 Conditions: Continuous-duty base firing temperature One start-up per 1,000 fired hours Natural gas fuel Current production units

MEPE currently possesses 17 Frame-5 gas turbines and it rotates limited spare parts between each power station, however, it is having trouble securing repair parts due to the chronic shortage of spare parts at the stations. There is an urgent need to bolster stocks of spare parts at each power station.

O Problems concerning purchase of high temperature parts Currently, the high temperature parts of all MEPE gas turbine power stations are gathered by Shwedaung gas turbine power station (under the authority of the station manager) and are purchased after approval is received from MEPE headquarters. However, the high temperature parts that are actually purchased account for just a small fraction of the parts that are required by each power

2-30 station. It is understood that funds are limited, however, if parts are not purchased for long periods or the desired parts cannot be obtained, it becomes impossible for inspections and repairs to be carried out at power stations. This is a common problem for gas turbine power stations in developing countries. Very many gas turbines in developing countries are operating in critical conditions because they are unable to carry out inspections or repairs due to the chronic shortage of high temperature parts. In this situation, it is extremely difficult to improve the efficiency or reliability of power plants and major accidents could occur at any time. It is not easy to raise the necessary funds in order to purchase spare parts. However, when one considers the long-term outage and massive repair costs that could be incurred in the even of a major accident, efforts should be made to realize a setup whereby the necessary spare parts can be immediately secured at each power station.

(6) Fuel and Water Survey was carried out into the composition of fuel and water and the quantities of fuel and water that can be supplied at Shwedaung power station. Moreover, prices of gas fuel and diesel oil in Myanmar are as follows. Gas fuel 10 kyats/1,000 ft3 (6 kyats = US $ 1) 7.7 cents/kg 2.3 cents/kWh Diesel oil 160 kyats/British Gallon (350 kyats = US $ 1) 12.1 cents/kg 3.9 cents/kWh

The cost of fuel is high compared to in other countries, and this has a direct impact on the finances of MEPE

O Gas fuel Gas fuel is transported by pipeline to Shwedaung thermal power station from the oil and gas field belonging to Myanmar Gas and Oil Enterprises (MOGE). The amount of gas fuel sent in one day is approximately 5.5 MMCF, which is equivalent to the fuel consumption of one gas turbine. The remaining two turbines are normally operated by diesel oil. Approximately 32 MMCF/day is supplied by the MOGE oil and gas field (see Table 22-2). The composition of gas fuel is as indicated in Table 2.2-10.

2-31 Table 2.2-10 Composition of Gas Fuel Components Units Value kcal/Nm3 8,365 Lower heat value (LHV) kcal/kg 10,949 kl/kg 45,841 Oxygen (02) Vol. % 0.01 Nitrogen (N2) Vol. % 0.72 Carbon Dioxide (C02) Vol. % 0.74 Methane (CHf) Vol. % 94.7 Ethane (QJL) Vol. % 2.75 Propane (QH*) Vol. % 055 ISO-Butane (CJW Vol. % 0.21 N-Butane fCJlm) Vol. % 0.16 ISO-Pentane (QH12) Vol % 0.12 N-Pentane (CTf?) Vol. % 0.04 Specific Gravity (Air = 1) kgZNm3 0.764

The existing gas supply facilities owned by MOGE will be subjected to fuel limitations if power stations are increased or renewed in the future. Development of gas fields on land and offshore is currently being advanced in Myanmar. However, since this is part of the government policy to obtain foreign currency, quantities of gas fuel are exported to foreign countries. Although natural gas produced from offshore fields currently under development is scheduled to sell to neighboring Thailand, it is not clear when this gas will be diverted for domestic use. It is hoped that measures are taken to expand domestic demand of gas in future.

O Liquid fuel Two of the gas turbines at Shwedaung power station are normally operated using diesel oil. This diesel oil, which is supplied by Myanmar Petroleum Public Enterprise (MPPE), is transported by tank lorry and is stored in fuel tanks. Units 2 and 3, which use diesel oil, are currently operating at a lower operating rate due to the high unit cost of generation and the reduced gas turbine output and efficiency. Table 2.2-11 shows the composition of diesel oil.

Table 2.2-11 Composition of Diesel Oil Components Units Value Specific Gravity at 60 ■ F 0.83 (52LB/FI3) FlashPoint 150" F (Minimum) Sediment wt % 0.01 (Max) Water Vol. % 0.05 (Max) Pour Point 40" F (Max) Sulfur wt % 1 (Max) Carbon Residue -10% Bottom wt % 02 (Max)

2-32 Setting Point 15 " F (Below) Viscosity 40 (Max) ASH wt % 0.01 (Max) Acidity Nil Inorganic Nil BTU/LB 19,000 Calorific Value kcal/kg 10,556 kJ/kg 44,194

Since the unit cost of generation in the gas turbine operated by diesel oil is higher than the unit cost of purchasing electricity, the size of the deficit increases as more power is generated Accordingly, MEPE is giving consideration to developing gas and oil fields and increasing power stations that is operated by gas fuel.

O Water The price of water at Shwedaung power station is as follows: Water 0.15 kyats/British gallon

Since the amount of water used in the existing gas turbine facilities is small, groundwater is used However, large quantities of water for heat recovery steam generator will be required in the case where the station is converted into a combined cycle power plant Intake facilities currently exist on the Ayeyardady River roughly 3 km away from Shwedaung power station and it is possible for ample amounts of water to be obtained The river measures a few hundred meters across at this point and there is abundant flow. Since the intake facilities here include filter equipment, it is thought that water can be easily supplied by laying approximately 2.5 km of filtered water piping and installing a demineralizer on the power station side.

2-33 222.5 Outline of Mann Gas Turbine Power Station

Operating record is indicated in Table 22-12. In approximately 17 years since the start of operations of Units 1 and 2 in 1980, the total of generated watt-hour is approximately 3,213 GWh Average power output was approximately 12.5 MW, which represents an operating rate of 65% as compared to the rated output of 18.45 MW (when atmospheric temperature is 45°C). After all, the gas turbine units are operated at a relatively high load factor in the same way as ones of Shwedaung power station.

Table 22-12 Operating Record From 1980 Until 1998 Inclusive Name of Power Station Mann GTPS Unit No. Unitl Unit 2 Fired Hours (h) 127,000 131,000 Start-up Times 192 145 Generated Power Energy (MWh) 1,572905 1,640215 Averaged Power Output (kW) 12400 12500

Since Units 1 and 2 of Mann power station are gas-fired turbines, more generated watt-hour and operating days is recorded, and they are regarded as important power generation units by MEPE This is supported by the fact that these units were operated almost continuously throughout last year (1998-99) and have not ceased operating at all so far this year (as of September 1999). Last year, because the operating rate of hydroelectric power plants fell dramatically due to a shortage of rain in the rainy season, it is thought that the effects of this spread to gas fired thermal power. Figure 22-4 shows annual change of generated watt-hour per year. Gas turbines of Mann power station, which type is Frame-5 designed by GE, have the same specifications as gas turbine facilities at Shwedaung power station (see Figure 2.2-3). The station work force numbers 125 in total The organization of the power station is the same as one of Shwedaung power station (See Figure 2.2-2). The turbines are able to operate on two types of fuel. However, they are exclusively run on gas because a sufficient gas supply can be secured. Gas fuel is supplied by gas pipeline from Mann Oil field located approximately 2 km away from Mann station.

2-34 Unit 1 Movements in Annual Amount

140.000

120.000

100,000 & 80,000

Psl, 60,000# 1 40,000

20, ooo |@0

co Tf in (o OSCSS OS05 03OS 03

Year

Unit 2 Movements in Annual Amount

_ CMCO^lOtOC— OOOSOi-lC

Figure 22-4 Movements in Annual Amount of Generated Power Energy

2.22.6 Outline of Facilities

Design data of the gas turbines in Mann power station are the same as ones in Shwedaung power station (see Table 2.2-3). In the same way as at Shwedaung power station, both generation output and efficiency grow lower as atmospheric temperature increases. Table 22-13 shows the present performance of generation units in the power station under the site conditions (when atmospheric

2-35 temperature is 45°C). Mann power station uses gas as fuel, and this is one of the reasons why dramatic falls in output and efficiency are not seen.

Table 12-13 Current State ofFariBties (45%3) Present Performance at Comparison Items Design Performance MannGTPS Unit 1 Unit 2 Type of Fuel Natural Gas Distillate oil Natural Gas Natural Gas Performance Data (kW) 18,450 18,050 17,000 18,000 Heat Rate (BTU/kWh) 13200 13,400 14300 14,600 Heat Rate (kcal/kWh) 3,320 3,370 3,590 3,680 Thermal Efficiency (%) 25.9 25.6 23.9 23.4 Fuel Consumption (kg/h) 5,590 5,750 5,570 6,050 Exhaust Gas Temperature (°C) 502 502 510 495

2.2.27 Operating Conditions in 1998

Generated watt-hour, availability, and reliability at Mann power station in 1998 are as shown in Table 22-14. Both Units 1 and 2 uses exclusively gas as fuel, and this is one of the reasons why the units record hardly any breakdowns or problems and contribute to the stable supply of power. The units were operated for 358 days (8,600 hours) and 352 days (8,500) respectively, indicating that continuous operation was maintained more or less throughout the year.

Table 22-14 Operating Conditions in 1998 Mann 1998 ITEMS No.l No2 Operating Day 358 352 Fired Hours (h) 8,604 8,448 Total Generation (GWh) 135 132 Stand-by Hour (h) 0 0 Planned Outage Hour (h) 0 0 Forced Outage Hour (h) 0 0 Frequency of start and stop 0 0 Plant Availability (%) 100 100 Plant Reliability (%) 100 100

As is the case at Shwedaung thermal power station, figures for availability and reliability are 100% and healthy. In reality, there was some outage time in 1998, but this was not recorded.

222.8 Facilities Conditions Until Now

The following paragraphs describe inspection contents, frequency of inspections and frequency of breakdowns at Mann power station until now.

2-36 Incidentally, the inspection intervals recommended by GE are the same as those indicated for Shwedaung power station (see Table 2.2-6). It is not easy for generation units to stop for inspection since electric power is in short supply throughout the whole of Myanmar and spares of high temperature parts is extreme deficient In the result the fact is that the recommended inspection intervals are greatly departed from in the operation of gas turbine units. This situation is common to other gas turbine power stations, and there is a strong possibility that this may lead to a major accident that could have a critical impact on power supply in Myanmar. It is thought that long-term operation in the current situation cannot be achieved at Mann power station, too, and it is urgently important to adhere to inspection intervals and carry out repairs of broken down areas. Unit 1 has so far recorded more than 120,000 fired hours, but it has only undergone one major inspection. Unit 2 has recorded more than 130,000 fired hours, but this unit, too, has only received one major inspection during this time. Both units have greatly deviated from the inspection intervals recommended by GE Table 2.2-15 shows the record of inspections that have been implemented until now.

Table 22-15 Inspection Implementation Records Unit No. Inspection Start Date Fired Hour Type of Inspection No.l 1 1982- 7-11 9,611 C.I 2 1986-11-3 27,111 C.I 3 1990-2-17 50,475 C.I 4 1991-12-10 65,887 MJ 5 1994-9-23 89,146 H.G.P.I 6 1996-10-25 106,535 C.I No.2 1 1982- 9-30 8,938 C.I 2 1987-4-23 31,310 C.I 3 1989-11-25 52355 MJ 4 1993-5-23 81,038 C.I 5 1994-2-1 94,082 C.I 6 1996-12-7 111,373 C.I Note) Q: Combustion Inspection HGPI: Hot Gas Path Inspection MI: Major Inspection, Records of combustion nozzle inspections have bear omitted.

(1) Breakdown Outages (Trip Breakdowns) Gas turbine units at Mann power station tripped approximately 10 times in 1998 and trip breakdowns arising from the same trouble occurred consecutively. Concerning servo valve failure, high bearing temperature and generator vibration, since inspections found the trouble to arise from detector failure, restart was possible in almost all cases. Concern is raised over future operation because repairs

2-37 cannot be made due to the shortage of parts and long-term outage is not an option due to the lack of power supply. Judging from the number of trips made for the whole power station, it is imagined that considerable degradation exists in control equipment as well as gas turbine high temperature parts. Therefore, it is thought that comprehensive rehabilitation not just limited to high temperature parts is needed. Figure 22-5 shows the frequency and causes of trips.

Causes of Trips on Mann Gas Turbine Power Plants in 1998

Hydraulic Oil Supply Bearing Temperature Pressure Low High 22%(2 times) 22%(2 times)

Generator Vibration 22%(2 times) Servo Valve Failure 34%(3 times)

Figure 22-5 Frequency and Causes of Trips

(2) Compressor Cleaning As is also the case at Shwedaung power station, the frequency of compressor rice cleaning is extremely low and this has only been implemented three times including once during major inspection. This has a major effect on compressor efficiency and gas turbine output and is one of the reasons why rated output cannot be achieved in the gas turbine. It is necessary to establish the interval for compressor cleaning in order to restore output of the gas turbine units.

(3) Gas Turbine Inlet Filter At Mann power station, as is also the case at Shwedaung power station, operation is being continued with the high efficiency filter of the gas turbine detached The reasons behind this, too, are the lack of spare parts. If operation is continued without regular compressor cleaning and with the gas turbine filter detached, it is possible that this will not only lead to reduced output but cause damage to high temperature parts. It is essential that a high efficiency filter is purchased and is restored to the origin position soon.

2-38 (4) Inventory Control of Gas Turbine High Temperature Parts The following paragraphs describe current conditions regarding inventory control of high temperature parts, which are the most important portions of gas turbine equipment

O Stocks of high temperature parts Current stocks of high temperature parts at Mann power station are as indicated in Table 22-16.

Table 22-16 List ofHigh Temperature Parts Stocks Number of Parts Name of Parts Stocked at Present Hot Gas Parts Combustion Liner lONos Transition Piece lONos Combustion Wear Parts lONos Turbine 1st Stage Bucket 0 Turbine 2nd Stage Bucket 0 Turbine 2nd Stage Nozzle lset Turbine 2nd Stage Ring Segment 0 Instruments parts Flame Detector 0 Speed Pick Up 0 Igniter 0 Thermocouple 0 Ignition Power Supply 18Nos Limit Switch 0 Pressure Gauge 0 Solenoid 0

As is also the case at Shwedaung power station, stocks of high temperature parts are running extremely low. The only high temperature parts currently in stock are combustion-related transition pieces, combustion liners and a second stage nozzle, but these are nowhere near enough to run and maintain two gas turbines. Limited spare parts are rotated between each gas turbine power station, however all gas turbine power stations are experiencing trouble in securing parts for repair due to the chronic shortage of spare parts. It is necessary to replenish stocks of spare parts as soon as possible. Moreover, operation in accordance with high temperature parts repair and replacement criteria (see Table 22-9) is required. 5

(5) Problem of Morale among Operators The current staffing setup at Mann power station is divided into four shifts with each shift composed of a senior shift engineer and a few operators. In the past, hourly data were entered on a log data sheet

2-39 in the central control room, however, the warning display panel has been left untouched since it last displayed a warning due to instrumentation breakdown. The fact that repair cannot be performed due to the absence of repair parts can be understood, however, in the current situation, if a breakdown were really to occur, it is possible that this may lead to a major accident A greater sense of urgency is required with respect to control.

(6) Fuel and Water Survey was carried out into the composition of fuel and water and the quantities of fuel and water that can be supplied at Mann power station. Moreover, prices of gas fuel and diesel oil are the same as was indicated for Shwedaung power station.

O Gas fuel and liquid fuel (diesel oil) Gas fuel is transported by pipeline to Mann power station from the oil and gas field belonging to Myanmar Gas and Oil Enterprises (MOGE). The amount of gas fuel sent in one day is approximately 10.5 MMCF, which is equivalent to the fuel consumption of two gas turbines. Diesel oil is transported by tank lorry from the Mann fuel station belonging to MOGE and is stored in fuel tanks. The output and efficiency of gas turbines fall when diesel oil is used, however, since gas supply is secured for the gas turbines at Mann power station, diesel oil only needs to be used during emergencies. The composition of gas fuel and diesel oil is the same as was indicated for Shwedaung power station (see Tables 2.1-11 and 2.1-12).

O Water The price of water at Mann thermal power station is as follows: Water 0.10 kyats/British gallon

Since the amount of water used in the existing gas turbine facilities is small, groundwater is used However, large quantities of water for heat recovery steam generator will be required in the case where the station is converted into a combined cycle power generating facility. Intake facilities currently exist on the Irrawaddy River roughly 3 km away from Mann power station and it is possible for ample amounts of water to be obtained The river measures a few hundred meters across at this point and there is abundant flow. Moreover, groundwater supply facilities are installed on the bank of Mann River, which is also around 3 km from the station, and ample water can be obtained from here too. There is thus thought to be no problem concerning water supply providing that a demineralizer is installed on the power station side.

2-40 223 Ability to Cany out Project

2.2.3.1 Technical Ability

It is thought that MEPE has the capability to execute to the combined cycle from existing plant since it has already constructed combined cycle power plants using existing facilities at Thaketa, Ahlone and Hlawga power stations. Though above-mentioned power plant is the single gas turbine unit, so for reinforcement, MEPE used to advance an erection as combined cycle power plant of multi-shaft type adding boiler and steam turbine. A financial resources credit is execution in a loan from an supplier credit and MEPE is deferring payment in about 2~3 years after commissioning date than an open market rate by higher interest As scope of work, an equipment supplier supplies principal machinery, system design and supervisor of construction, and MEPE supplies as for a civil engineering work, erection materials, consumable supplies. Though a raising of funds manner differs, Project contents and MEPE organization are similar to the mention above, so MEPE has skill capacity concerning an erection. Concerning transmission and distribution work, MEPE has executed a lot of erection works directly from former times. So if there is even a financial resources credit, it can be execution by selves all.

[Construction record] Thaketa: Three gas turbines (Type F5) were installed in 1990, and existing facilities were converted to multi-shafts type of combined cycle power plant in February 1997. The system consists in 19MW X 3 gas turbines, three heat recovery steam generators and 30MW X 1 steam turbine, and it’s total output is 87 MW (this breaks down as 19 MW X 3 gas turbines + 30 MW X 1 steam turbine). Ahlone: Three gas turbines (Type F6) were installed in 1995, and existing facilities were converted to combined cycle plant in September 1999. The system is a multi-shaft system (3-3-1) possessing a total output of 149.9 MW (this breaks down as 33.3 MW X 3 gas turbines + 50 MW X 1 steam turbine). Hlawga: Three gas turbines (Type F6) were installed in 1996, and existing facilities were converted to combined cycle plant in April 1999. The system is a multi-shaft system (3-3-1) possessing a total output of 149.9 MW (this breaks down as 33.3 MW X 3 gas turbines + 50 MW X 1 steam turbine).

The implementation setup for conversion of the existing gas turbines at Thaketa, Ahlone P/S, etc. into combined cycle facilities is as shown in Figure 2.2-6.

2-41 2.23.2 Management System

MERE is currently supervised by the Ministry of Electric Power and is composed of six departments.

M ERE — Total Management — Local Arrangement: Construction Work Civil Material (Steel, Concrete etc.) Local Material

a a — Total Contract Execution — Project Management & Coordination

B a — Technical Management — Basic Design & Engineering — Connection Work

______If necessary C a Another consultant — Design & Engineering — Design & Engineering — Supply of Power Block — Interface Coordination — Project Supervise — BOP

HRSG & Accessories (Da)

Steam Turbine & Generator (Ea)

Instrument & Control (Fa)

BOP (oa)

BOP: Balance of Plant

Moreover, the total work force of MERE is approximately 15,000. The organization chart of MERE is as indicated in Figure 2.2-7.

Figure 22-6 Implementation setup for conversion of the existing gas turbines at Thaketa and AhloneP/S

2-42 &

of

Machine

planning

Audit Payment

Finance Director Treasury

Department Financial Internal & Income Accounting Accounting

of

Admin.

Admin.

Director Fire-Fighting

Department Administration General & Personnel

of

Planning

MERE

Planning

Movement of

Installation(Hvdro)

Director Department chart

Material Logistic Stores Procurement Director Construction

Engineer

Equipment

Work

Hydro

Chief Organization Managing

Construction Design Major Engineer

& 22-7 &

Construction Investigation.

Maintenance Hydro Chief

Department

Figure DY. Electro-Mechanical Medium Hydro Civil Hydro Planning Mini Center

System

Engineer

Maintenance Grid

Division Control

& Statistical

&

& Chief

Operation Department DY. Repair Fuel State System National Office

Engineer

Deputy

Chief Planning DY:

Department DY. ££) Implementation Planning Construction

2-43 2.23.3 Management Foundation and Policy

The counterpart in Myanmar, that is Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise (MEPE), is under the supervision of the Ministry of Electric Power and bears all responsibility for the power supply utility including planning, operation, etc. As for administrative base, refer to enumeration 2.2-17. Majority of income is electricity bill benefit, past 7 years have resulted in a credit balance.

Table 23-17 Consolidated revenue accounts kyats in 1000 Particulars 1995 1996 1997 1998 Sales of electricity 2,827394 3,086335 3,328,088 4,162,985 Other income 62,802 98,779 70,854 75,191 Total Income 2,890,096 3,185,114 3,398,942 4,238,176 Salaries and wages 179,896 176,626 252,580 263,968 Fuel consumption 613,553 597,010 1,572325 1,717,829 Purchase of electricity 4,043 2,800 7,227 7,229 Depreciation 385,947 461,012 479,976 447,595 Maintenance, repairs 278,257 448,753 677,406 844,307 General expenses 309,645 317,751 311,380 369,672 Total Expense 1,771341 2,003,952 3,300,894 3,650,600 Profit before taxation 1,118,755 1,181,162 98,048 587,576 State contribution 783,128 826813 68,634 404,636

[Background] Based on the Electricity Supply Act of 1948, the Electricity Supply Board (ESB) was established on October 1,1951 and this undertook the functions of the power supply department and the hydroelectric power survey department In addition, the Rangoon Electric-Tramway and Supply Company Limited were nationalized on October 1,1953. Based on Notification No. 2 issued by the Ministry of Industry on March 16,1972, the ESB was reorganized into the Electric Power Corporation (EPC). Then, based on Notification No. 2/89 issued by the Government of Myanmar on March 31, 1989, the EPC was reformed into the Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise (MEPE). [Supervisory Ministry] Ministry of Electric Power (MOEP) Address: 197/199, Lower Kyimyindine Road, Yangon [Functions and Objectives] 1. Development of electric power supply, transmission and distribution 2. Development, promotion and survey of hydro electric power resources 3. Supply of cheap and low cost power to industrial and commercial user 4. To provide supplies of Electricity in bulk or otherwise for consumers in the whole of Myanmar

2-44 22.3.4 Financial Performance

As it is mentioned in 22.3.1 clauses, MERE aims a project like Ahlone C/C by itself, and there is the past record that MERE invest about 40% (construction, installation work) of project expenses in that case. At present, MEPE does not have enough financial resources credit, but under this status, it is heard that MEPE is deferring payment at a loan regularly. Therefore there are foreign currency potion and local currency potion in the case of yen loan, it is thought MEPE has the capacity which can pay local currency potion enough. It is no problem that MEPE is nationalized and a part of financial resources credit is supported from a country.

22.3.5 Manpower Capacity

There are about 15,000 employees in MEPE When an erection begins, except for MEPE employee, they have the system that can provide a day labor. In case of three erections which was mentioned in 223.1 clauses, there is not a problem concerning a labor. Moreover, a skill level of a labor is kept in order that there are lots of past records that execute construction works.

2.23.6 Implementation Organization

When the combined cycle addition Project is started, construction offices shall be established timely at each power station, and construction works shall be implemented under the office (see Figure 2.2- 7). The construction offices shall be placed under the supervision of the implementation group belonging to the planing Department The implementation setup for the Project is indicated if Figure 2.2-8. The Project shall be implemented based on the request of economic assistance which is made by the Government of Myanmar to the Government of Japan, and the implementation setup shall consist of the MEPE, the consultant (coordinator) and the Project contract parties.

MEPE Consultant

Contractor

Sub-Contractor Figure 22-8 The implementation setup for the Project

2-45 22 A Pacification of Project

As it is mentioned in 2.2.3.1 clauses, using existing gas turbine, this project modifies existing power plant to multi-shaft type combined cycle power plant by adding boiler and steam turbine. Table 2.2-18 shows the outline of facilities in the Project Case. Moreover, it is assumed that the existing gas turbines undergo inspections, repair and replacement and that performance is restored to design levels following rehabilitation.

Table 2.2-18 Outline of Facilities in the Project Case Shwedaung Mann Generation capacity (MW) 84.9 84.9 Facilities configuration 3-3-1 Multi shaft C/C 3-3-1 Multi shaft C/C single pressure single pressure Thermal efficiency (%) 39.8 39.8 Fuel Gas Diesel Gas Diesel Fuel consumption (kg/h) 5590 5750 5590 5750 Number of gas turbines 2 unit 1 units 2 units limit Total output of gas turbines 36.9 18.05 36.9 18.05 (MW) Type of gas turbine MS 5001 Quantity of steam turbines 1 unit 1 unit Total output of steam turbines 29.9 29.9 (MW) Utilization Factor (%) 80

Main facilities (1) Heat Recovery Steam Generator (HRSG) three (3) sets Steam output 50t/h Steam pressure 45ata Steam temperature 500 X (2) Steam Turbine one (1) set Rated output 29.9 MW (45 X base) Normal speed 3,000 rpm Steam pressure 41ata Steam temperature 470 X (3) Generator one (1) set Kind 3 - phase AC synchronous generator Forced air cooled Rated capacity 45MVA Normal speed 3,000 rpm Power factor 0.8

2-46 Rated voltage 11.5 kV (4) Others Main transformer, switch yard etc. Cooling tower, boiler feed water pump etc. Demineralizer etc.

223 Scope of Provision for Implementation (Finance, Procurement, Services, and so forth)

2.25.1 Important Points for Consideration

Consideration shall be given to the following points when examining the scope of funds and equipment, etc. to be provided by both sides in the event of Project implementation. First of all, concerning funds, since the Project is regarded as an undertaking to reduce C02 emissions, it is thought that Japan should mainly provide funds in the form of a special environmental loan or equivalent finance scheme based on using C02 reductions as collateral. Since funds are to be mainly provided by Japan, consulting work regarding products and technology, etc. shall be tied between both countries.

22.5.2 Scope of Funds, Equipment, Products, Services and Technology, etc. to be Provided by Both Sides

(1) Funds From the Japan side, a special yen loan under the loan assistance scheme (OECF, etc.) can be considered However, since C02 emissions trading rights are involved, it is recommended that the Project be financed using an environmental special yen loan. The Myanmar side shall prepare local currency to cover the portion of construction cost that cannot be covered by loan assistance.

(2) Equipment and products Major equipment and products (gas turbines, power trains, heat recovery steam generators, transformers, high-tension cable, breakers, etc.) shall be supplied by the Japan side. The Myanmar side shall provide civil engineering and building related items and peripheral and accessory equipment

(3) Technology and services Detailed feasibility study and detail design and engineering shall be implemented jointly by this company (Japan side) and the Myanmar side.

2-47 Transportation of facilities and equipment shall be implemented upon first coordinating with the Myanmar side.

(4) Construction, installation and trial operation Construction, installation, trial operation and items concerned with these activities shall mainly be conducted by the Myanmar side, with this company and the equipment supplier acting as supervisors in managing and coordinating the work.

(5) Operation and maintenance and guidance following completion During the period of construction, testing and trial operation, this company and the equipment supplier shall conduct operation and maintenance training with a view to transferring technology.

(6) Other This company shall carry out Project supervision and overall coordination both at home and abroad The Myanmar side shall coordinate with the local government and related ministries and agencies, bolster the setup for Project implementation, and deal with the necessary procedures surrounding the works.

2.2.6 Preconditions and Problems for Project Implementation

2.2.6.1 Proposals for Rehabilitation of Existing Generation Facilities

Judging from the overall state of facilities at Shwedaung and Mann thermal power stations based on the survey results shown in section 2.22, the minimum required inspections are not being implemented due to the shortage of spare parts and high power demand, and a major accident could occur at any time. If combined cycle operation were to be attempted using existing facilities in their present state, trouble in the gas turbine facilities would lower the reliability and operating rate of facilities and make it impossible to adequately respond to the increasing demand for power. Accordingly, combined cycle conversion of the existing facilities is proposed based on the assumption that the following technical items are carried out: • Sure implementation of inspections according to maker-recommended intervals • Replenishment of spare parts so that parts are available at times of inspection and breakdown • Establishment of compressor washing intervals • Sure repair and replacement of trouble spots • Adherence to high temperature parts replacement intervals

2-48 • Adherence to high temperature parts replacement intervals

226.2 Rehabilitation of Gas Turbine Facilities

In order to achieve the combined cycle operation of existing facilities at Shwedaung and Mann power stations, it is thought that thorough rehabilitation of the existing gas turbines is necessary. In particular, Shwedaung Unit 1 has been in operation for more than 120,000 hours and Mann Units 1 and 2 for more than 130,000 hours (as of September 1999), and it is time for detailed inspections to be carried out not only on high temperature parts but also gas turbine rotors and casing, etc.; moreover, complete overhaul of the start-up diesel engines and torque converters is also necessary. It is also high time for detailed inspection or replacement of control equipment and control computers. Accordingly, the total rehabilitation of existing facilities and equipment is a condition for conversion to combined cycle operations. Table 22-19 shows the recommended items for rehabilitation in existing facilities.

Table 22-19 Recommended Items for Rehabilitation in Existing Facilities SI rwedaung Mann Replacement Parts and Inspection Items No.l No.2 No.3 No.l No.2 1. Major Replacement Parts Items Gas. Turbine a. Turbine 1st Stg Bucket X X X X b. Turbine 1st Stg Nozzle X X X X c. Turbine 2nd Stg Bucket X X X X d Turbine 2nd Stg Nozzle X X X X e. Transition Piece X X X X f. Combustion Liner X X X X g. 1st Ring Segment X X X X h 2nd Ring Segment X X X X

Control Equipment a. Speed Governor (Mark II) X X X X X

Auxiliary Facilities a. Compressor Inlet Air Filter Media X X X X X b. Inlet Air Fin Tube Radiator X X X X X c. Cooling Tower X X X

2. Detailed Inspection not included in normal Major Inspection Gas. Turbine a. Turbine Rotor Bore Non-destructive Test X X X X X X: Recommended items for rehabilitation

Concerning Shwedaung thermal power station. Unit 1 has been operating for roughly 70,000 hours

2-49 90.000 hours of operation Moreover, concerning the accumulated number of start-up times, approximately 2,400 have been recorded in Unit 2 and 3,800 in Unit 3 since 1985. Accordingly, when these start-ups are converted into equivalent operating time since the last major inspection, it is thought that Unit 2 has been operating for approximately 120,000 hours and unit 3 for roughly 50.000 hours. The two turbines recorded some 6,200 start-ups in around 15 years, and this is an abnormally high number. The reasons for this are thought to be the fact that Units 2 and 3 use light oil, the fact that they are used for adjusting load, and the large number of trip breakdowns that occurred as a result of inadequate maintenance. Next, concerning Mann thermal power station, Unit 1 has been operating for roughly 40,000 hours since its last major inspection, while Unit 2 has been operating for 60,000 hours. Moreover, concerning the accumulated number of start-up times, approximately 190 have been recorded in Unit 1 and 150 in Unit 2 since 1980. However, these are small numbers compared to the case in Shwedaung thermal power station and are not thought to greatly affect the operating times. The small number of start-ups (350 combined) in the two turbines over almost 20 years can be explained by the fact that the turbines use gas as fuel and are operated to provide the base load In view of the above conditions, not only is it necessary to replace gas turbine high temperature parts, but rehabilitation consisting of precision inspections and in some cases replacement, etc. is required for other parts too.

2.26.3 Issues Following the Project for Combined Cycle Operation

Even after the project for combined cycle operation has finished, spare parts will continue to be in short supply due to the lack of funds in MEPE and the power supply shortage, and it is possible that adequate inspections and repairs will not be carried out Arising from this, there is concern that the performance of generation facilities will drop and C02 emissions will increase due to the fall in thermal efficiency. The self-help of MEPE will be the most important factor, however, it will also be necessary for the joint implementing agencies to conduct follow-up after Project completion.

22.1 Project Schedule

The implementation schedule from signing of contracts through to start of operation is as indicated in Table 22-20. MEPE has already constructed combined cycle power plants using existing gas turbine facilities at Thaketa, Ahlone and Hlawga power stations, and all these projects have proceeded almost exactly as planned Therefore, no problem is thought to exist regarding Project implementation.

2-50 Moreover, because both Shwedaung and Mann power stations are located close to rivers, there is hardly any need to carry out the overland transportation of plant equipment Thus, by assembling as much of the equipment as possible at the plant, the construction schedule can be further shortened In the MERE medium to long tarn power generation Expansion program (Table 2.1-3), it was planned for Shwedaung and Mann power stations to be converted to combined cycle operation by 1998-1999, however, due to the shortage of funds and so on, it will be impossible for works to be completed this year. The local side is strongly hoping for the restart of international financial supported so that the project can be realized at an early stage.

Table 2.2-20 Project Construction Schedule

DEUVARY: 3 HRSG, 1 STEAM TURBfC GENERATOR end ETC. NOTE BOTTOMMG CYCLE ADDITION PROJECT______' Month ITEM 12 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Contract Effectiveness

(I) CIVIL DESIGN V)

(2) CIVIL WORKS

(3) DELIVERY (FOR) ■MATERIAL FOR CIVIL WORK & HRSG ■HRSG

•TURBtC GENERATOR & ELECTRICAL •AUXIUARES

(3’) LOCAL Prc tC om pie *0 FABRICATION (4) ERECTION >)

(*> k means COmp eti on of rnec her liceti a Td

necessary for power generation. __ 1__ 1__ !__ 1__ I__ 1__ i__ 1__ 1__ 1__ 1__ 1—!__ 1—

23 Materialization of Financial Procurement

23.1 Project Budget

The Case 1 Project budget was computed based on general international tender prices. The estimation criteria are as follows.

• Since Case 1 entails combined cycle conversion utilizing existing gas turbines, the inspection, repair and replacement of existing turbines is assumed and these costs are

2-51 inspection, repair and replacement of existing turbines is assumed and these costs are included. • Regarding the cost of transporting facilities and equipment by sea and overland to the Project sites, roughly 5% of the equipment price has beat estimated. • Regarding the cost of Project design, engineering control, process control, and adjustment, 10% of the overall budget amount has been estimated, and 5% of the total budget amount has been assumed as the contingency cost • Switchyards and transmission lines have been omitted from the budget since existing facilities will be used. • Concerning transformers, in consideration of the power generation capacity, additional installation or replacement has been estimated. • Other equipment still in a usable state shall be used as much as possible.

Based on the above criteria, the Project budget is as indicated in Table 2.3-1.

Table 23-1 Project Budget Item Budget Amount Budget Amount Remarks (Shwedaung) (Mann) Inspection and Repair Cost of Table 3.5 2.5 Existing Facilities 2.3-2 Major Equipment Table 29.9 41.2 (ST, GEN, HRSG, GT*1) 2.3-3 Main Transformer, Step-up Table 0.33 1.71 Transformer 2.3-4 Subtotal 33.7 45.4 Design, Engineering, Schedule 3.37 4.54 10% Management, Adjustment Costs Contingency Cost 1.69 2.27 5% Total 38.8 52.2 Fuel Cost (TJS$ / yr.) 10.9 10.9 0 & M Cost (US$ / yr.) 0.6 0.6

Moreover, concerning the fuel cost and operation and maintenance cost, based on unit prices of personnel, fuel, facilities, equipment and parts as surveyed locally, the results estimated according to the recommended inspection and repair schedule of the maker are displayed. The budgets for each facility and equipment are as indicated in the following paragraphs.

2.3.1.1 Project Budget Estimation

Since Case 1 aims to achieve the combined cycle conversion of existing gas turbines, the major items of equipment in the Project budget are the steam turbines, HRSG and transformers, etc. belonging to

2-52 the bottoming-cycl e portion. However, concerning the existing gas turbines, since deterioration has reached extreme levels, large-scale inspection, repair and replacement shall be implemented.

(1) Cost of existing gas turbine inspection, repair and replacement Based on the conditions of existing equipment as described in 22.2, recommended items for improvement shall be examined In almost all power generation facilities, replacement of turbine blades, combustion related items, hydraulic items and a suction-related item is necessary. As for control devices, which are core items of equipment, the power stations use MARK II series controllers which are no longer being manufactured, and it is fortunate that no major troubles have so far occurred For detailed results, see section 22.6 and Table 22-19. Concerning other facilities, even if replacement is not required, it is considered absolutely essential to carry out inspections and repairs. Transportation and installation costs have been incorporated into the equipment prices. The results of calculating the costs of inspecting, repairing and replacing the existing gas turbines as described above are as shown in Table 2.3-2

Table 23-2 Existing Facilities Rehabilitation Costs (Unit: 1000 US$) Shwedaung Mann Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 3 Unitl Unit 2 Inspection and repair 200 200 200 200 200 Replacement 1,000 1,000 500 850 850 Other 400 400 Total 3,500 2300 Note: Prices of each parts have beat computed from local survey data and general international prices.

(2) Budget for Main Facilities and Equipment Main facilities and equipment refer to the steam turbines, generators and heat recovery steam generators, and all the incidental pumps, piping, steam turbine controllers, and water processing equipment that accompany these facilities. The prices of facilities and equipment were set based on general international tender prices. As for the transportation, civil engineering and installation costs (turn-key base), these have been incorporated into the equipment prices. At Mann power station, an additional gas turbine shall be installed in a 3-3-1 multi-shaft combined cycle generation system. Table 23-3 shows the budget for main facilities and equipment.

2-53 Table 23-3 Budget for Main Facilities and Equipment (Unit: 1000 US$) Item Set Shwedaung Mann 1 Gas Turbine

Gas Turbine Generator & Accessories — 9,800

Gas turbine Electrical systems — 1,000

Others — 500

1 Steam Turbine

Steam Turbine Generator & Accessories 8,400 8,400 Steam Turbine Electrical systems 1,300 1,300 Condenser & Accessories 1,100 1,100 Circulating Water system 2,200 2,200 Boiler Feed & Condensate system 400 400

Heat Recovery Steam Generator (HRSG) 3 HRSG & Accessories 7,400 7,400 HRSG Electrical systems 200 200 Exhaust & Bypass Stack & Accessories 2,500 2,500 Others 400 400

Plant Control system 1 1,700 1,700

1 Miscellaneous

Fuel systems & Accessories 400 400 Water Treatment system 900 900 Waste Water Treatment system 200 200 Fire Protection systems 300 300 Emission Monitoring system 2,000 2,000 Others 500 500

1 0 0 G/Tr S/T, Control Buildings

TOTAL 29,900 41,200

(3) Budget for Main Transformers and Step-up Transformers Necessary transformer equipment consists of main transformers for steam turbine generators, main transformers for gas turbine generators, step-up transformers for switchyards, and accessories. The

2-54 capacity of transformers shall be the same as or greater than that of generators. Prices have been based on US $ 10/kVA (CDF), which is the general international tender price. As the cost of domestic transportation, civil engineering works and installation, 10% of the equipment price has been assumed. Table 23-4 shows the budget for main transformers and step-up transformers.

Table 23-4 Budget for Main Transformers and Step-up Transformers (Unit: 1000 US$) m i Set Shwedaung Mann 1 Gas turbine Main Transformer

Main Transformer (25MVA) — 250 Others — 25

1 Steam turbine Main Transformer

Main Transformer (30MVA) 300 300 Others 30 30

1 Step-up Transformer

1,000 Transformer (100MVA)

Others — 100

TOTAL 330 1,705

(4) Fuel Cost and Operation and Maintenance Cost Two types of fuel, that is gas fuel and diesel oil fuel, are used. The price and composition of these fuels are as described in section 2.2.2.

Gas fuel : 7.7 cents/kg Diesel oil fuel: 12.1 cents/kg

The fuel cost was calculated using the following expression: Fuel cost = Fuel price (cents/kg) X fuel consumption of generation facilities (kg/h) X operating time (h)

2-55 Shwedaung Mann Unit 1,2 Units 3 Units 1,2 Unit 3 * Fuel Gas Diesel Gas Diesel Fuel consumption 1kg/hi 5,590 5,750 5,590 5,570 Utilization factor [% / yr.l 80 80 80 80 * One more gas turbine is installed in line with combined cycle operation.

As for the operation and maintenance cost, 1% of the equipment cost is assumed In the case where a 3-3-1 multi-shaft combined cycle plant is constructed using the same specifications as the existing gas turbines (F5 type), the equipment cost would be approximately US $ 60 MM. Accordingly, the operation and maintenance cost in this case would be US $ 0.6 MM.

232 Fund Raising Plan and Prospects for Project Implementation

As was mentioned earlier, Myanmar is faced with a power shortage and is having to manage by carrying out load shading. Despite this, plans to enhance and bolster power generation facilities are not going as scheduled due to a lack of funds. Between 1997-1999, Thaketa, Ahlone and Hlawga power stations were converted into combined cycle facilities using supplier ’s credit, but fund management has been very difficult Concerning Shwedaung and Mann power stations, as was indicated in the medium to long tarn power generation development plan as shown in Table 2.1-3, it was planned to convert the stations into combined cycle facilities in 1999, however, the limit on own funds has meant that implementation within the year is probably inpossible. The public peace and economy in Myanmar seem to be stable at the moment, but it is thought that transition from military rule to democracy is still a long way off Accordingly, it is hoped that the Project can be implemented at an early stage through overseas development aid (ODA) as a humanitarian undertaking, and the Government of Myanmar strongly hopes that Japan can provide support in this area. According to recent newspaper reports (November 1999), Prime Minister Obuchi of Japan attended an unofficial summit of ASEAN and other leaders and on this occasion talked to Mr. Tan Sbwe, Chairman of the State Peace and Development Council of the military administration in Myanmar, with a view to calling for moves toward democratization. Future developments are to be watched closely.

2-56 2.4 Conditions of CDM (Clean Development Mechanism)

2.4.1 Conditions and Preparations for Implementation Project

As a project execution proviso, insurance of a financial resources credit is important In Myanmar, a meaning of greenhouse gas reduction, necessity are not understood It is the condition that has not been decided anything in the Environment Agency which is under Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Myanmar. Therefore, an organization for a greenhouse gas reduction project in Myanmar is done first, PR for performance, necessity in the event that it was execution is necessary. So it is propelled Further it is thought that there is not a problem as for this project itself. Suggestion about the selection of project plan was made positive from MEPE It is adjustment sufficiently as for contents.

2.42 Possibility of Agreement for CDM

As was mentioned earlier, the Myanmar side (MEPE) is greatly interested in and anticipates much from the Project, and there is a very strong possibility that it will agree to the Project implementation. MEPE made some positive suggestions during the narrowing down of Project alternatives, and the Project contents have been coordinated well. MEPE has been very friendly in the course of this feasibility study and has treated it with high priority. Moreover, it has a strong desire to see the early implementation of the Project

2-57 < Transmission and Distribution Loss Reduction >

2.5 Project Planing

The aim of the Project is to reduce energy losses in transmission and distribution systems in the power network system by reinforcement of their facilities. This will eventually lead to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from thermal power stations. TEPSCO has experienced transmission loss reduction studies in foreign countries, and past thinking and measures for loss reduction can be also applied to the case of Myanmar. This chapter gives a description of methods to study the loss reduction, using the example of the Mandalay network system among many local systems.

2.5.1 Overview ofTarget Area

The selected target systems and target areas are described as below.

2.5.1.1 Target Area

Carrying out selection of the target area, the following points are taken into consideration. However, the capital city Yangon where a transmission and distribution loss study has been carried out last year, and the metropolitan area were excluded from this study. Basically, local systems where transmission and distribution lines are vulnerable should be highlighted. Criteria for selecting the target area are as follows: • Local system • Vulnerable facilities of transmission and distribution system • Relatively long distance of medium voltage and low voltage power lines • Relatively far from existing thermal power sources • Highly growth rate of actual demand • Increasing demand expected in future As a result of study, Mandalay Division was selected as the target area of the study. Incidentally, for Mandalay City, a request for improvement of the transmission and distribution system was proposed from Myanma Electric Power Enterprise (MEPE) at the end of the study in last year. The division capital of Mandalay is the second largest city in Myanmar and was formerly the capital of Upper Burma some 150 years before. Mandalay is an inland city situated approximately 620 km north of the capital Yangon, and the surrounding area is a rice-producing belt in the middle reaches of

2-58 Ayeyarwady River. The current population is roughly 1,000,000. A major international airport and industrial estate are currently under construction in the outskirts of the city and major growth is anticipated here in the future. Mandalay Division is composed of 35 townships, of which five are located in Mandalay City. For the purposes of the study, it was decided to target the five townships in the center and two adjoining townships in the suburbs. The total demand for sold power in these seven townships is equivalent to approximately half the total demand in all Mandalay Division. The names of the seven townships are as follows. A map of central Mandalay is shown in Figure 2.5-1.

(1) Aung Myay Tha Zan (2) Chan Aye Tha Zan (3) Maha Aung Myay (4) Chan Mya Thazi (5) Pyi Gyi Dagon (6) Pathein Gyi (north -east: outer) (7 ) Amarapura (south-west : outer)

2-59 2.5.1.2 Target Systems

Figure 2.5-2 shows a map of national grid power systems in Myanmar. Grid substations concerned with the target area are 132kV Mandalay Substation and 132kV Aungpinlae Substation. The simulation range for grid system is extended to 132kV buses at Mandalay and Aungpinlae substations and the surrounding Thaji, Kinda and Sedawgyi substations are taken into calculations together with 132kV transmission lines. The voltage composition of distribution systems in Mandalay District is 33kV, llkV and 400V, and the voltage is converted from 132kV to 33kV or llkV at Mandalay and Aungpinlae substations. In the city, there are ten 33/llkV substations where voltage is converted to llkV. The power is distributed to general consumers after being stepped down by 11/0.4kV transformers on poles located throughout the city. The calculation for 33kV system was decided to simulate the Mandalay District 33kV Distribution Network indicated in Figure 2.5-3; and as for the llkV system, it was decided to conduct simulation with respect to all seven townships. However, 400V system, in view of the large quantities of data and huge amounts of work involved, it was decided to limit the study area to the central districts of Chan Aye Tha Zan and Maha Aung Myay Townships. The power system map of llkV system in five townships is indicated in Figure 2.5-4. It was also hoped to attach maps of llkV system in the rest of two townships and 400V systems, however, due to their large size and detailed contents, this is not physically possible and they were omitted.

Table 2.5-1 Study Area of Distribution System

33kV System Mandalay District 33kV Distribution Network

7 townships Chan Aye Tha Zan Maha Aung Myay Aung Myay Tha Zan llkV System Chan Mya Thazi Pyi Gyi Dagon Patheingyi Amarapura

2 townships 400V System Chan Aye Tha Zan Maha Aung Myay

2-61 2.5.2 Contents of Project

The reduction of green gas emissions from thermal power stations is planned by reinforcement of transmission and distribution facilities of Mandalay System with reducing the losses in their facilities..

2.5.2.1 Relationships between Transmission Loss and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Currently, the electric energy is produced from various primary energy resources. In addition to thermal power which utilizes fossil resources, there are hydropower and nuclear classified as types of primary energy. Recently, the reuse of resources such as the utilization of geothermal energy, wind power and solar energy has being developed in spite of a small scale. Thermal power generates greenhouse gases, which are the main object of the Project. To reduce green gas emissions, improving thermal efficiency of each thermal power station or directly reducing their electric power is considered. The hydropower plant is usually operated to fully utilize its energy resources, and the rest of demand is matched by thermal power generation. Accordingly, hydropower plant is operated as the first priority, while thermal power generation is conducted to satisfy the rest of power demand. Among the power demand including transmission power loss (also known as sending-end demand), consumer power demand is constant. If the power transmission loss can be reduced, this causes that the thermal power generation is also reduced. In other words, the reduction of the power transmission loss enables generation of greenhouse gases to be reduced. Of course, this is not just a general theory but is something which also applies to the target country of Myanmar.

2.5.2.2 Principal of Loss Reduction Study

In addition to resistance loss arising from the resistance of conductors of transmission and distribution lines, there are numerous losses including copper loss and iron loss in transformers, loss arising from leakage currents of insulators, corona loss, and so on. However, much of the transmission loss in power networks attributed to resistances, and copper loss in transformers is one of resistance losses. Consequently, it is sufficient to take notice of resistance loss including copper loss for the study. Although iron loss in transformers is far smaller than copper loss, the iron loss shall be also taken into loss calculations here since the iron loss will increase together with the installation of new transformers, Assuming the current through certain transmission and distribution lines to be I (A) and the resistance value in these lines to be r (Ohm), the resistance loss L (W) arising in these lines is calculated as follows:

2-70 L = rXI2 (5-1)

If another system of the same lines is constructed and each system carries a half of the current 1/2, the loss, Lnew (W), is calculated as follows.

Lnew = rX(1/2) 2X2 = rXI2/2 = L/2------(5-2)

Therefore, the transmission loss reduction is as follows.

L—Lnew = L—L/2 = L/2------(5-3)

This shows that a half amount of transmission loss is reduced. Countermeasure for loss reduction can be considered as follows. (1) Construction of power lines with higher voltage and transmit the same amount of power at a lower current (introduction of higher voltage) (see Figure 2.5-7) (2) Construction of power lines with the same voltage along the same or different routes in order to bypass the current (construction of same voltage power lines) (see Figure 2.5-8) (3) Size-up of conductors of existing power line in order to reduce the resistance value (Size-up of conductors) (see Figure 2.5-9) (4) Installation of capacitors to reduce power factor and current (power factor improvement) (see Figure 2.5-10)

New Higher Voltage Line

Existing

Transformer Transformer

Existing Same Vol^gyLine

Open Point Figure 2.5-7 Higher Voltage Line Introduction

2-71 Existing Higher Voltage Line

Existing

Transformer

Existing Same Voltage Line

New Same Voltage Line

Figure 2.5-8 Same Voltage Line Construction

Existing Higher Voltage Line

Existin;

Transformer

Existing Same Voltage Line

Existing Same Voltage Line with Replaced Large Conductor

Figure 2.5-9 Conductor Size-up of Existing Line

Existing Higher Voltage Line

Existing

Transformer

Existing Same Voltage Line

Canacitor

Capacitor

Figure 2.5-10 Installation of Capacitors

The characteristics of the four countermeasures are summarized in Table 2.5-4. In system planning, for the transmission and distribution where the loss is large, introduction of higher

2-72 voltage system is the most effective method and is most desirable in terms of future development. The next best method is the construction of same voltage lines or size-up of conductors, however, these alternatives are inferior to the introduction of higher voltage system in terms of an extremely large number of works sites, works implementation and future development. Installation of capacitors is not so much efficient; moreover, it is necessary to annually reinforce equipment to cope with the increase of reactive power load. In the Study, the method with the highest Project effect, i.e. introduction of higher voltage system, is considered at first, while the construction of same voltage lines or size-up of conductors is considered for the parts where extremely large merits can be obtained with the consideration of future development. Furthermore, capacitors shall be only considered in case of improving power factor at grid substations which are heavily loaded for the bulk power system on the feature of voltage.

Table 2.5-4 Characteristics of Each Countermeasure

Construction Area of Constraints on Advantage of Countermeasure Project Efficacy Cost Construction Construction Future Planning High or (1) HV Introduction High Narrow Little Much Middle (2) SV Construction Middle Middle Wide Many Very Little

(3) Size-up Middle Middle Wide Great Many Little

(4) Capacitor Low Low Middle Little Normal

2.S.2.3 Project Screening Method

Based on the study concept described in 2.S.2.2, extracting the Project materials, it is necessary to establish criteria which gives an upper limit of extension of implementation. Since transmission and distribution loss will generally fall with any system reinforcement, it is necessary to establish a brake in terms of cost effectiveness. In this study, it was decided to place the emphasis on economy. The project cost comprises both of the construction cost of transmission and distribution system and the operation and maintenance expense during a certain period after commissioning. On the other hand, the project benefit comprises both of the reduced investment for new thermal power plants and the operation, maintenance and fuel expense during the same period affected by loss reduction countermeasures. Implementation is feasible in the only case where economic rationality exists by economic calculation described below. Where B denotes the benefit during a certain period gained by countermeasures, and C denotes the cost of countermeasure including expense of operation and maintenance, the net benefit NB is defined

2-73 power lines occurs in distribution systems, and that countermeasure should be required to such systems. However, the data of this field are usually most insufficient and the study work is overwhelmingly large volume. Therefore, the study areas were decided to limit it according to the views of MEPE.

2.5.2.4 Tools to be Applied for Study

In the computer calculation of power transmission loss, in-house software PFLOW is applied for the study. PFLOW is based on power flow calculation by the Newton-Raphson method and can also calculate the loss in lower voltage system comprised of three-phase imbalanced current. The load model of lower voltage system is designed so that the constant current load is uniformly distributed over an optionally set section and the loss can be calculated, provided that the current injection into a set section is known. Of course, in cases where major lump load exists, it is also possible to partially input the type of lump load. As a tool for extracting the optimal plan for loss reduction, PLOPT in-house software PLOPT is applied for the study. PLOPT automatically carries out calculations in cases of high voltage line introduction, same voltage line construction and size-up of conductor, and it extracts the alternative which offers the largest net benefit, however, to execute calculations of so many cases, loss calculation method is simplified. Also, it is necessary for humans to further refine the countermeasure plans since the results obtained from PLOPT are purely for reference.

2.5.2.5 Data used in Study

2.5.2.5.1 Establishment of System Constants

Since the loss calculation is carried out by power flow calculation used in power system analysis, it is necessary to replace transmission and distribution lines and transformers with electrical constants. As the data on impedance in 132kV and 33kV transformers was obtained, it was used. However, there is no data of copper loss and iron loss in transformers in Myanmar, therefore, data of a different country which has used in the project for energy loss reduction in Jordan by TEPSCO were utilized. Table 2.5-5 shows copper loss and iron loss constants estimated from these data, and Table 2.5-6 indicates the transformer constants for this study. As for line constants, unit constants of conductor were calculated for each conductor as shown in Table 2.5-7, and the table of line constants based on this was compiled as shown in Table 2.5-8.

2-75 Table 2.5-5 Copper Loss and Iron Loss Constant

2-76 Tabic 2.5-6 Transformer Constant Table

Impedance [%] Capacity [MVA] Impedance Tap Voltage [kV] (3 phase) (3 Phase Machine Base) (1 MVA BASE) Copper Loss [%] Iron Core Loss [%] Facility Transformer Station Name Comment Table P-S P-T S-T Type CODE

P S T P S T P S T Base Base Base (%) Capacity (%) Capacity (%) Capacity (Machine Base) (1 MVA BASE) (Machine Base) (1 MVA BASE) [MW] [MW] [MW]

Mandalay S/S 1 * X 3 30 30 10 118.80 33.0 11.0 7.70 30.00 4.31 10.00 1.38 10.00 0.27 -0.02 0.16 0.497 0.017 0.047 1.410 YYd

(Tagundaing) 3^X1 80 80 118.80 33.0 0.492 0.006 0.042 3.360 YyO/Ydll MDY80

Aung Pin Lae 3 0x1 18 18 125.40 11.0 10.00 18.00 0.56 0.00 0.00 0.502 0.028 0.051 0.918 Yn/dll APL18

1 0x3 30 30 10 132.00 33.0 11.0 7.76 30.00 7.70 10.00 8.70 10.00 0.08 0.18 0.69 0.497 0.017 0.047 1.410 YYd APL30

Myaukpyin S/S 3 0x1 5 5 33.00 11.0 6.92 5.00 1.38 0.00 0.00 0.534 0.107 0.080 0.400 YnYnO MYP5

3 0x1 5 5 33.00 11.0 6.92 5.00 1.38 0.00 0.00 0.534 0.107 0.080 0.400 YnYnO MYP5

Myayangyan S/S 3 0x1 10 10 33.00 11.0 7.82 10.00 0.78 0.00 0.00 0.512 0.051 0.060 0.600 YndYnO MG

NanDwin S/S 3 0x1 2.5 2.5 33.00 11.0 6.51 2.50 2.60 0.00 0.00 0.578 0.231 0.120 0.300 Yndll ND

Hayamarzala S/S 3 0x1 15 15 33.00 11.0 9.60 15.00 0.64 0.00 0.00 0.504 0.034 0.053 0.795 DYnll HZ

76 Myetpayart S/S 3 0x1 7.5 7.5 33.00 11.0 7.70 7.50 1.03 0.00 0.00 0.519 0.069 0.067 0.503 YnYnO 76M

Shwekyaunggyi S/S 3 0x1 7.5 7.5 33.00 11.0 5.90 7.50 0.79 0.00 0.00 0.519 0.069 0.067 0.503 YnYnO SH7

3 0x1 5 5 33.00 11.0 5.90 5.00 1.18 0.00 0.00 0.534 0.107 0.080 0.400 YnYnO SH5

65th Street S/S 3 0x1 1.25 1.25 33.00 11.0 6.37 1.25 5.10 0.00 0.00 0.666 0.533 0.200 0.250 YnYnO 65TH

3 0x1 1.25 1.25 33.00 11.0 6.40 1.25 5.12 0.00 0.00 0.666 0.533 0.200 0.250 YnYnO

59th Street 3 0x1 5 5 33.00 11.0 7.26 5.00 1.45 0.00 0.00 0.534 0.107 0.080 0.400 YnYnO 59TH

Industrial Zone 3 0x1 10 10 33.00 11.0 6.81 10.00 0.68 0.00 0.00 0.512 0.051 0.060 0.600 YnYnO IZ

Pathein Gyi S/S 3 0x1 1.25 1.25 33.00 11.0 11.0 9.82 1.25 7.86 0.00 0.00 0.666 0.533 0.200 0.250 YnYnO PTG

2-79 Table 2.5-6 Transformer Constant Table

Impedance [%] Capacity [MVA] Impedance Tap Voltage [kVJ (3 phase) (3 Phase Machine Base) (1 MVA BASE) Copper Loss [%] Iron Core Loss [%] Facility Transformer Station Name Comment Table Type P-S P-T S-T CODE P S T P s T P S T Base Base Base (%) Capacity (%) Capacity (%) Capacity (Machine Base) (1 MVA BASE) (Machine Base) (1 MVA BASE) [MW] [MW] [MW]

33/1 lk V 30MVA 3 x 1 30 30 33.00 11.0 7.00 30.00 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.497 0.017 0.047 1.410 YnYnO M30

33/1 lkV 25MVA 3 0x 1 25 25 33.00 11.0 7.00 25.00 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.499 0.020 0.048 1.200 YnYnO M25

33/1 lkV 20MVA 3 xl 20 20 33.00 11.0 7.00 20.00 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.501 0.025 0.050 1.000 YnYnO M20

33/1 lkV 15MVA 3 0 X 1 15 15 33.00 11.0 7.00 15.00 0.47 0.00 0.00 0.504 0.034 0.053 0.795 YnYnO M15

33/1 lkV 10MVA 3 0x1 10 10 33.00 11.0 7.00 10.00 0.70 0.00 0.00 0.512 0.051 0.060 0.600 YnYnO M10

33/1 lkV 7.5MVA 3 0x1 7.5 7.5 33.00 11.0 7.00 7.50 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.519 0.069 0.067 0.503 YnYnO M7.5

33/1 lkV 5M VA 3 0x1 5 5 33.00 11.0 7.00 5.00 1.40 0.00 0.00 0.534 0.107 0.080 0.400 YnYnO M5

33/1 lkV 2.5MVA 3 0 X 1 2.5 2.5 33.00 11.0 7.00 2.50 2.80 0.00 0.00 0.578 0.231 0.120 0.300 YnYnO M2.5

ll/0.4kV 15000k VA 3 0x1 1.5 1.5 11.00 0.4 5.00 1.50 3.33 0.00 0.00 0.808 0.539 0.114 0.171 YnYnO LI 500

ll/0.4kV 1250kVA 3 0x1 1.25 1.25 11.00 0.4 5.00 1.25 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.812 0.650 0.117 0.146 YnYnO LI 250

ll/0.4kV 1000k VA 3 0x1 1 1 11.00 0.4 5.00 1.00 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.818 0.818 0.121 0.121 YnYnO LI 000

0 X 1 ll/0.4kV 800kVA 3 0.8 0.8 11.00 0.4 5.00 0.80 6.25 0.00 0.00 0.825 1.031 0.127 0.102 YnYnO L800

ll/0.4kV 750k VA 3 0x1 0.75 0.75 11.00 0.4 5.00 0.75 6.67 0.00 0.00 0.827 1.103 0.128 0.096 YnYnO L750

1 l/0.4kV 630kVA 3 0 X 1 0.63 0.63 11.00 0.4 5.00 0.63 7.94 0.00 0.00 0.835 1.325 0.134 0.084 YnYnO L630

ll/0.4kV 625kVA 3 0 X 1 0.625 0.625 11.00 0.4 5.00 0.63 8.00 0.00 0.00 0.835 1.336 0.134 0.084 YnYnO L625

ll/0.4kV 500k VA 3 0x1 0.5 0.5 11.00 0.4 5.00 0.50 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.847 1.694 0.143 0.072 YnYnO L500

1 l/0.4k V 400kVA 3 0x1 0.4 0.4 11.00 0.4 5.00 0.40 12.50 0.00 0.00 0.861 2.153 0.154 0.062 YnYnO MOO

0 X 1 ll/0.4kV 315kVA 3 0.315 0.315 11.00 0.4 5.00 0.32 15.87 0.00 0.00 0.881 2.797 0.168 0.053 YnYnO L315

ll/0.4kV 300k VA 3 0x1 0.3 0.3 11.00 0.4 5.00 0.30 16.67 0.00 0.00 0.886 2.953 0.172 0.052 YnYnO L300

ll/0.4kV 250k VA 3 0x1 0.25 0.25 11.00 0.4 5.00 0.25 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.905 3.620 0.186 0.047 YnYnO 1250

ll/0.4kV 200k VA 3 0x1 0.2 0.2 11.00 0.4 5.00 0.20 25.00 0.00 0.00 0.934 4.670 0.208 0.042 YnYnO 1200

ll/0.4kV 180kVA 3 0x1 0.18 0.18 11.00 0.4 5.00 0.18 27.78 0.00 0.00 0.950 5.278 0.220 0.040 YnYnO LI 80

2-81 Table 2.5-6 Transformer Constant Table

Impedance [%] Capacity [MVA] Impedance Tap Voltage [kV] (3 phase) (3 Phase Machine Base) (1 MVA BASE) Copper Loss [%] Iron Core Loss [%] Facility Transformer Station Name Comment Table Type P-S P-T S-T CODE P S T P s T P S T Base Base Base (%) Capacity (%) Capacity (%) Capacity (Machine Base) (1 MVA BASE) (Machine Base) (1 MVA BASE) [MW] [MW] [MW] ll/0.4kV 160kVA 3 0x1 0.16 0.16 11.00 0.4 5.00 0.16 31.25 0.00 0.00 0.970 6.063 0.235 0.038 YnYnO LI 60 ll/0.4kV 150kVA 3 0 x 1 0.15 0.15 11.00 0.4 5.00 0.15 33.33 0.00 0.00 0.983 6.553 0.244 0.037 YnYnO LI 50 U/0.4kV 125kVA 3 0x1 0.125 0.125 11.00 0.4 5.00 0.13 40.00 0.00 0.00 1.021 8.168 0.273 0.034 YnYnO LI 25 U/0.4kV 100k VA 3 0x1 0.1 0.1 11.00 0.4 5.00 0.10 50.00 0.00 0.00 1.080 10.800 0.316 0.032 YnYnO L100 ll/0.4kV 80k VA 3 0x1 0.08 0.08 11.00 0.4 5.00 0.08 62.50 0.00 0.00 1.152 14.400 0.371 0.030 YnYnO L80 1 l/0.4kV 75k VA 3 0x1 0.075 0.075 11.00 0.4 5.00 0.08 66.67 0.00 0.00 1.176 15.680 0.389 0.029 YnYnO L75 ll/0.4kV 50k VA 3 0x1 0.05 0.05 11.00 0.4 5.00 0.05 100.00 0.00 0.00 1.370 27.400 0.533 0.027 YnYnO L50 ll/0.4kV 30k VA 3 0x1 0.03 0.03 11.00 0.4 5.00 0.03 166.67 0.00 0.00 1.758 58.600 0.822 0.025 YnYnO L30 ll/0.4kV 25k VA 3 0x1 0.025 0.025 11.00 0.4 5.00 0.03 200.00 0.00 0.00 1.952 78.080 0.967 0.024 YnYnO L25

2-83 Tabic 2.5-7 Conductor Constant Table

50 IIz

Specification of Conductor Conditions for System Design

Temperature Wind Solar Sectional Coefficient of Current Name of Type of Allowable Velocity Radiation Overall Steel Area of DC Resistance Ambient Radiation Carrying Conductor Size of Conductor Conductor Diameter Diameter aluminum Resistance Temperature Factor Capacity Conductor Temperature V [m/sec] Ws [W/cm2] Remarks or copper at 2(03 « IPC) example : [MCM] D [mm] d [mm] R0 [Q/km] IcfC] (normally 0.9) [A] example : ZEBRA ACSR400 tfC] (normally (normally Al [mm2] (normally 0.5) 0.1) 0.0036 - 0.004)

Drake ACSR 795 28.13 10.36 402.80 0.06814 0.004 34 90 0.5 0.1 0.9 901.5 Squab ACSR 605 24.53 9.036 306.60 0.08958 0.004 34 90 0.5 0.1 0.9 756.1 Ibis ACSR 397.5 19.88 7.323 201.40 0.13650 0.004 34 90 0.5 0.1 0.9 576.7 Linnet ACSR 336.4 18.28 6.735 170.50 0.16120 0.004 34 90 0.5 0.1 0.9 518.1 Wolf ACSR 18.13 7.77 158.10 0.16940 0.004 34 90 0.5 0.1 0.9 504.3 Partridge ACSR 266.8 16.29 6.006 135.20 0.20310 0.004 34 90 0.5 0.1 0.9 446.7 DIN120/20 ACSR 15.5 5.7 121.60 0.22500 0.004 34 90 0.5 0.1 0.9 418.4 Dog ACSR 14.15 4.71 105.00 0.26190 0.004 34 90 0.5 0.1 0.9 377.9 DIN70/12 ACSR 11.7 4.32 69.90 0.39150 0.004 34 90 0.5 0.1 0.9 293.0 Rabbit ACSR 10.05 3.35 52.88 0.51360 0.004 34 90 0.5 0.1 0.9 245.2 Din35/6 ACSR 8.1 0 34.30 0.79060 0.004 34 90 0.5 0.1 0.9 186.1 Swan ACSR 6.354 2.118 21.15 1.28500 0.004 34 90 0.5 0.1 0.9 136.5 Turkey ACSR 5.037 1.679 13.28 2.04500 0.004 34 90 0.5 0.1 0.9 101.6

S.W.G2/0 HDBC 8.839 0 61.362 0.28967 0.00381 34 90 0.5 0.1 0.9 316.5 S.W.G1/0 HDBC 8.23 0 53.197 0.33413 0.00381 34 90 0.5 0.1 0.9 288.9 S.W.G1 HDBC 7.62 0 45.604 0.38976 0.00381 34 90 0.5 0.1 0.9 261.9 S.W.G2 HDBC 7.01 0 38.595 0.46055 0.00381 34 90 0.5 0.1 0.9 235.5 S.W.G3 HDBC 6.401 0 32.180 0.55235 0.00381 34 90 0.5 0.1 0.9 209.8 S.W.G4 HDBC 5.893 0 27.275 0.65168 0.00381 34 90 0.5 0.1 0.9 188.8 S.W.G5 HDBC 5.385 0 22.775 0.78044 0.00381 34 90 0.5 0.1 0.9 168.3 S.W.G6 HDBC 4.877 0 18.681 0.95149 0.00381 34 90 0.5 0.1 0.9 148.4 S.W.G7 HDBC 4.47 0 15.693 1.13265 0.00381 34 90 0.5 0.1 0.9 132.9 S.W.G8 HDBC 4.064 0 12.972 1.37026 0.00381 34 90 0.5 0.1 0.9 117.7

2-85 Table 2.5-8 Line Constant Table

50 Hz

Design of Unit System Parameters of Unit System

Thermal Thermal Distance Positive Sequence Impedance Positive Sequence Impedance Number of Distance Between Two Phases in Same Resistance Capacity of Capacity of Standard Voltage Conductor Calculation Between [Q /cct-km] Resistance of Base [% /cct-km ] Facility Number of Name of Sub ­ Circuit of Neutral Circuit Circuit Name of Unit System Name of Temparature Sub ­ Positive Sequence Admittance Neutral Line Capacity Positive Sequence Admittance Table Circuits Conductor conductors (center to center) Line [kV] Neutral Lint fC] conductors [£2 '/cct-km] [Q /cct-km] [MV A} [% 1 /cct- km] CODE per Phase [m] [% /cct-km ] [A / phase] [MVA/cct] [m]

AC AC AC Resistance Resistance at Resistance t' Reactance Admittance Resistance Reactance Admittance S Phase R -S Phase S-T Phase T-R at t' °C t'°C at t' °C [°C] X Y/2 R X Y/2

R Rn Rn

132 Drake Single 1 Drake 1 60 9.144 9.144 18.288 0.0795081 0.4372001 130086E-06 1 0.000456% 0.002509% 2.266626% 901.5 206.110 HA400

132 Squab Single 1 Squab 1 60 6.096 6.096 12.192 0.1042716 0.4203281 135511E-06 1 0.000598% 0.002412% 2361141% 756.1 172.875 I1A305

132 Ibis Single 1 Ibis 1 60 6.096 6.096 12.192 0.1585935 0.4335343 131228E-06 1 0.000910% 0.002488% 2.286513% 576.7 131.859 HA200

132 Linnet Single 1 Linnet 1 60 6.096 6.096 12.192 0.1872175 0.4388064 1.29593E-06 1 0.001074% 0.002518% 2.258021% 518.1 118.458 HA170

33 Drake Single 1 Drake 1 60 1.524 1.524 3.048 0.0795081 03246198 1.77495E-06 1 0.007301% 0.029809% 0.193292% 901.5 51.527 MA400

33 Squab Single 1 Squab 1 60 1.524 1.524 3.048 0.1042716 03332241 1.72685E-06 1 0.009575% 0.030599% 0.188054% 756.1 43.219 MA305

33 Ibis Single 1 Ibis 1 60 1.524 1.524 3.048 0.1585935 03464303 1.6579E-06 1 0.014563% 0.031812% 0.180545% 576.7 32.965 MA200

33 Linnet Single 1 Linnet 1 60 1.524 1.524 3.048 0.1872175 03517024 1.63188E-06 1 0.017192% 0.032296% 0.177712% 518.1 29.614 MA170

33 Wolf Single 1 Wolf 1 60 1.524 1.524 3.048 0.1966900 03522201 1.62937E-06 1 0.018062% 0.032343% 0.177439% 5043 28.824 MA150

33 Partridge Single 1 Partridge 1 60 1.524 1.524 3.048 0.2357887 03589442 1.59745E-06 1 0.021652% 0.032961% 0.173963% 446.7 25.530 MA135

33 DIN120/20 Single 1 DIN 120/20 1 60 1.524 1.524 3.048 0.2611792 03620677 1.58305E-06 1 0.023983% 0.033248% 0.172394% 418.4 23.915 MA120

33 Dog Single 1 Dog 1 60 1.524 1.524 3.048 0.3039765 03677933 1.5573E-06 1 0.027913% 0.033773% 0.169591% 377.9 21.600 MA100

33 DIN70/12 Single 1 DIN70/12 1 60 1.524 1.524 3.048 0.4542025 03797393 1.5062E-06 1 0.041708% 0.034870% 0.164025% 293.0 16.747 MA70

11 Drake Single 1 Drake 1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 0.0795081 0.2670472 2.18153E-06 1 0.065709% 0.220700% 0.026397% 901.5 17.176 JA400

11 Squab Single 1 Squab 1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 0.1042716 0.2756515 2.10932E-06 1 0.086175% 0.227811% 0.025523% 756.1 14.406 JA305

11 Ibis Single 1 Ibis 1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 0.1585935 0.2888577 2.00734E-06 1 0.131069% 0.238725% 0.024289% 576.7 10.988 JA200

11 Linnet Single 1 Linnet 1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 0.1872175 0.2941298 1.96933E-06 1 0.154725% 0.243082% 0.023829% 518.1 9.871 JA170

11 Wolf Single 1 Wolf 1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 0.1966900 03946475 1.96567E-06 1 0.162554% 0.243510% 0.023785% 5043 9.608 JA150

11 Partridge Single 1 Partridge 1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 0.2357887 03013716 1.91941E-06 1 0.194867% 0.249067% 0.023225% 446.7 8.510 JA135

11 DIN 120/20 Single 1 DIN 120/20 1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 0.2611792 03044950 1.89865E-06 1 0.215851% 0.251649% 0.022974%, 418.4 7.972 JA120

11 Dog Single 1 Dog 1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 03039765 03102206 1.86173E-06 1 0.251220% 0.256381% 0.022527% 377.9 7.200 JA100

11 DIN70/12 Single 1 DIN70/12 1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 0.4542025 03221667 1.78916E-06 1 0375374% 0.266253% 0.021649% 293.0 5.582 JA70

11 Rabbit Single 1 Rabbit 1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 0.5957760 03317182 1.73508E-06 1 0.492377% 0.274147% 0.020995% 2453 4.671 JA50

11 Din35/6 Single 1 Din35/6 1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 0.9170960 03452717 1.66373E-06 1 0.757931% 0.285348% 0.020131 % 186.1 3.546 JA35

11 Swan Single 1 Swan 1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 1.4906000 03605260 1.59013E-06 1 1.231901% 0.297955% 0.019241% 136.5 2.601 JA25

11 Turkey Single 1 Turkey 1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 23722000 03751203 1.52556E-06 1 1.960496% 0310017% 0.018459% 101.6 1.936 JA16

2-87 Table 2.5-8 Line Constant Table

50 Hz

Design of Unit System Parameters of Unit System

Thermal Thermal Distance Positive Sequence Impedance Positive Sequence Impedance Number of Distance Between Two Phases in Same Resistance Capacity of Capacity of Standard Voltage Conductor Calculation Between [£2 /cct-km] Resistance of Base [%/cct-km] Facility Number of Name of Sub ­ Circuit of Neutral Circuit Circuit Name of Unit System Name of Temparature Sub ­ Positive Sequence Admittance Neutral Line Capacity Positive Sequence Admittance Table Circuits Conductor conductors (center to center) Line [kV] Neutral Line rc] conductors [£2 ‘/cct-km] [Q /cct-km] [MVA] [% 1 /cct- km] CODE per Phase [m] [%/cct-km ] [A / phase] [MVA/cct] [m]

AC AC AC Resistance Resistance at Resistance f Reactance Admittance Resistance Reactance Admittance S Phase R -S Phase S-T Phase T-R at V °C t'°C at t' °C rc] X Y/2 R X Y/2

R Rn Rn

11 HDBC-S.VV.G2/0 1 S.W.G2/0 1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 03340677 03397858 1.69189E-06 1 0.276089% 0.280815% 0.020472% 316.5 6.030 JIIS2|0

11 I1DBC-S.W.G1/0 1 S.W.G1/0 1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 03852714 03442712 1.66879E-06 1 0318406% 0.284522%. 0.020192% 288.9 5.505 JHS1|0

11 HDBC-S.W.G1 1 S.W.G1 1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 0.4493525 03491099 1.64457E-06 1 0371366% 0.288521% 0.019899% 261.9 4.990 JHS1

11 HDBC-S.W.G2 1 S.W.G2 1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 0.5308763 03543526 1.61911E-06 1 0.438741% 0.292853% 0.019591% 235.5 4.487 JHS2

11 HDBC-S.W.G3 1 S.W.G3 1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 0.6365963 03600630 1.59226E-06 1 0.526113% 0.297573% 0.019266% 209.8 3.996 JHS3

11 HDBC-S.W.G4 1 S.W.G4 1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 0.7510014 03652585 1.5686E-06 1 0.620662% 0301867% 0.018980% 188.8 3.597 JHS4

11 HDBC-S.W.G5 1 S.W.G5 1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 0.8993779 03709227 1.54359E-06 1 0.743288% 0306548% 0.018677% 1683 3.207 JHS5

11 HDBC-S.W.G6 1 S.W.G6 1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 1.0964987 03771486 1.517E-06 1 0.906197% 0311693% 0.018356% 148.4 2.828 JIIS6

11 HDBC-S.W.G7 1 S.W.G7 1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 13052647 03826239 1.49436E-06 1 1.078731% 0316218% 0.018082% 132.9 2.531 JHS7

11 HDBC-S.W.G8 1 S.W.G8 1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 1.5790877 03886068 1.47038E-06 1 1305031% 0321163% 0.017792% 117.7 2.243 JHS8

0.4 Dog Single 1 Dog 1 Dog 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 03039765 03102206 1.86173E-06 03039765 1 189.985 % 193.888% 0.0000298% 189.985% 377.9 0.262 LA100

0.4 DIN70/12 Single 1 DIN70/12 1 DIN 70/12 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 0.4542025 03221667 1.78916E-06 0.4542025 1 283.877% 201354% 0.0000286% 283.877% 293.0 0.203 LA70

0.4 Rabbit Single 1 Rabbit 1 Rabbit 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 0.5957760 03317182 1.73508E-06 0.5957760 1 372360% 207324% 0.0000278% 372360% 245.2 0.170 LA50

0.4 Din35/6 Single 1 Din35/6 1 Din35/6 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 0.9170960 03452717 1.66373E-06 0.9170960 1 573.185% 215.795% 0.0000266% 573.185% 186.1 0.129 LA35

0.4 Swan Single 1 Swan 1 Swan 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 1.4906000 03605260 1.590 13E-06 1.4906000 1 931.625% 225329% 0.0000254% 931.625%, 136.5 0.095 LA25

0.4 Turkey Single 1 Turkey 1 Turkey 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 23722000 03751203 1.52556E-06 23722000 1 1482.625% 234.450% 0.0000244% 1482.625% 101.6 0.070 LA 16

0.4 HDBC-S.W.G2/0 1 S.VV.G2/0 1 S.W.G2/0 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 03340677 03397858 1.69189E-06 03340677 1 208.792% 212366% 0.0000271% 208.792% 316.5 0.219 LI1S2|0

0.4 HDBC-S.W.G1/0 1 S.W.G1/0 1 S.W.G1/0 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 03852714 03442712 1.66879E-06 03852714 1 240.795% 215.170% 0.0000267 % 240.795% 288.9 0.200 LHS1|0

0.4 IIDBC-S.W.G1 1 S.W.G1 1 S.W.G1 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 0.4493525 03491099 1.64457E-06 0.4493525 1 280.845% 218.194% 0.0000263% 280.845% 261.9 0.181 LHS1

0.4 HDBC-S.W.G2 1 S.W.G2 1 S.W.G2 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 0.5308763 03543526 1.61911E-06 0.5308763 1 331.798% 221.470% 0.0000259% 331.798% 235.5 0.163 LHS2

0.4 HDBC-S.W.G3 1 S.W.G3 1 S.W.G3 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 0.6365963 03600630 1.59226E-06 0.6365963 1 397.873% 225.039% 0.0000255%, 397.873% 209.8 0.145 LHS3

0.4 HDBC-S.W.G4 1 S.W.G4 1 S.W.G4 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 0.7510014 03652585 1.5686E-06 0.7510014 1 469376% 228.287% 0.0000251% 469376%, 188.8 0.131 LIIS4

0.4 IIDBC-S.W.G5 1 S.W.G5 1 S.W.G5 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 0.8993779 03709227 1.54359E-06 0.8993779 1 562.111% 231.827% 0.0000247% 562.111% 1683 0.117 LI1S5

0.4 HDBC-S.W.G6 1 S.W.G6 1 S.W.G6 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 1.0964987 03771486 1.517E-06 1.0964987 1 685312% 235.718% 0.0000243% 685312% 148.4 0.103 LHS6

0.4 HDBC-S.W.G7 1 S.W.G7 1 S.W.G7 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 13052647 03826239 1.49436E-06 13052647 1 815.790% 239.140% 0.0000239% 815.790% 132.9 0.092 L1IS7

0.4 HDBC-S.VV.G8 1 S.W.G8 1 S.W.G8 60 0.6096 0.6096 1.2192 1.5790877 03886068 1.47038E-06 1.5790877 1 986.930% 242.879% 0.0000235% 986.930% 117.7 0.082 LHS8

2-89 Tabic 2.5-8 Line Constant Table

50 Hz

Specification of Cable Conditions and Design for Unit System Parameters of Unit System

Temperature Sectional Diameter Coefficient of Thermal Thermal Diameter of Allowable Positive Sequence Impedance Positive Sequence Impedance Name of Unit System Type of Area of ■dnding Relative DC Resistance Ambient Capacity of Capacity of Standard Voltage Conductor Conductor Distance Between Two Phases Conductor [Q /cct-km] Resistance of Base [%/cct-km] Resistance of CABLE Conductor insulators Permittivity Resistance Temperature Circuit Circuit Facility TahU per phase Temperature (center to center) Name of Positive Sequence Admittance Neutral Line Capacity Positive Sequence Admittance Neutral IJne per phase per phase Dielectric at 20t o |/t| CODE [kVl txtmpU t [m] Neutral Line [Q '/ccV km] [O/cct-km] [MV A) |% '/cct-km] [%/cct-km] Constant R, [U/kml t«rc] [A / phase] [MVA/cct] OFZ 1*400 d [mm] ire.} A [mm1] D [mm] (normally 0.0036 - 0.004)

DC DC DC DC Resistance Reactance Admittance Resistance at Resistance at Reactance Admittance Resistance at Phase R S Phase S-T Phase T-R at It X Y/2 It It X Y/2 It R Rn R Rn

33 33kV XLPE 3*150 XLPE3*150 150 32.7 14.7 2-3 0.124 0.00381 40 60 0.043 0.043 0.043 0.1428976 0.12670124 2.5103E-05 1 0.0 L3122% 0.011635% 2.733765% 375 21.434 MX 150

33 33kV PAPER 3*70 P3*70 70 32.7 14.7 3.7 0.124 0.00381 40 60 0.043 0.043 0.043 0.1428976 0.12670124 40384E-05 1 0.013122% 0.011635% 4-397796% 225 12.860 MP70

33 33kV XIJ*E 3*100 XLFE3M00 100 30 12 2-3 0.187 0.00381 40 60 0.039 0.039 0.039 0.2154988 0.133317626 2.1905E-05 1 0.019789% 0.012242% 2-385401% 300 17.147 MX 100

33 33kV XLPE 3*60 XLPE3»60 60 27-3 9-3 2.3 0-311 0.00381 40 60 0.037 0.037 0.037 0-3583964 0.146025357 1.8638E 05 1 0.032911% 0.013409% 2.029693% 225 12.860 MX60

11 llkV XLPE 3*150 XLPE3*150 150 24.7 14.7 2-3 0.124 0.00381 40 60 0.031 0.031 0.031 0.1428976 0.106141713 3.8676E-05 1 0.118097% 0.087720% 0.467974% 345 6.573 JX150

11 llkV XLPE 3*100 XLPE3*100 100 22 12 2-3 0.187 0.00381 40 60 0.0283 0.0283 0.0283 0.2154988 0.11316733 3-3113E-05 1 0.178098% 0.093527% 0.400666% 275 5.239 .1X100

11 llkV XLPE 3*60 XLPE3*60 60 19-3 9-3 2-3 0-311 0.00381 40 60 0.0256 0.0256 0.0256 0-3583964 0.12288263 2.7491E-05 1 0.296195% 0.101556% 0-332641% 205 3.906 JX60

2-91 2.5.2.S.2 Project Schedule in Planning

To determine the target demand, it is first necessary to establish the year of project commission as a precondition. As is indicated in Table 2.5-9, it has been assumed that construction works are completed in 2002-2003 and the reduction of energy losses will be expected from 2003-2004.

Table 2.5-9 Loss Reduction Project Schedule for the Study 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004

Coordination of Finance

Detailed Design

Procurement

Construction

2.5.2.S.3 Peak Load Forecast and Operating Rates of Countermeasure Facilities in the Target Systems

Based on the project schedule shown above, a target demand section for 2003-2004 shall be set. As is indicated in Table 2.5-10, since forecasts of peak load are shown at intervals of five years for 2001- 2002, 2005-2006 and 2009-2010, an estimate for 2012-2013 based on these can be set as shown in Table 2.5-11. According to the table, if peak load in 1999-2000 is assumed to be 1, peak load in 2002- 2004 (the year after the completion of works) will be 1.68. This increases to 4.93 after 10 years in 2012-2013. If the peak load in 2012-2013 is assumed to be 100%, the load in 2003-2004 works out

as 39%. As the study is conducted so that economy is obtained during 10 years, i.e. so that net benefit becomes zero by the 10th year after the completion of countermeasure works, The maximum power flow of countermeasure facilities should be restricted at 39% or less of thermal rated capacities at the time of commissioning year. However, as for the operating rate of transformers to be installed, their operating rate shall be limited at 70% or less of rated capacity since it is easy to install additional transformers in future.

2-92 Table 2.5-10 Peak Load Forecast by MEPE

| FISCAL YEAR PEAK LOAD INCREASE 1 [MW] % MW 1998-99 780 - - 1999-00 897 15% 117 2000-01 1.032 15% 135 i 2001-02 1,186 15% 154 2002-03 1,364 15% 178 2003-04 1,527 12% 163 2004-05 1.711 12% 184 2005-06 1,917 12% 206 2006-07 2,147 12% 230 2007-08 2,361 10% 214 2008-09 2,597 10% 236 2009-10 2,857 10% 260 2010-11 3,142 10% 285

Present Power Future Power Demand Demand (1998 — No. Station Name At Year At Year At Year 99) 2001-2002 2005-2006 2009-2010 [MW] 1 Sedawgyi 2.0 3.0 4.9 7.3 2 Kyaukpahtoe 6.0 9.1 14.7 22.0 3 Letpanhla 11.5 17.5 28.2 42.1 4 Aungpinlae 13.7 20.8 33.7 50.1 5 Mandalay 72.0 109.4 176.9 263.5 6 Pyin Oo Lwin 14.2 21.6 34.9 52.0 7 Kinda 2.2 3.3 5.4 8.1 8 Thazi 30.2 45.9 74.2 110.5 9 Kalaw 9.7 14.7 23.8 35.5 10 Aungthapyay 17.6 26.8 43.2 64.4 11 Zawgyi 3.0 4.6 7.4 11.0 12 Lawpita 6.5 9.9 16.0 23.8 13 Kyunchaung 29.0 44.1 71.2 106.1 14 Nyaungbingyi 25.0 38.0 61.4 91.5 15 Chauk 14.6 22.2 35.9 53.4 16 Mann 15.0 22.8 36.8 54.9 17 Mangway 12.0 18.2 29.5 43.9 18 Taungdwingyi 3.8 5.8 9.3 13.9 19 Pyay 35.0 53.2 86.0 128.1 20 Myan Aung 38.0 57.8 93.0 139.1 21 Shwedaung 23.0 35.0 56.5 84.2 22 Hlawga 85.0 129.2 208.8 311.1 23 Bago 29.0 44.1 71.2 106.1 24 Taungoo 19.5 29.6 47.9 71.4 25 Pyinmana 12.5 19.0 30.7 45.7 26 Thaketa 125.0 190.0 307.0 457.5 27 Ahlone 95.0 144.4 233.4 347.7 28 Ywama 30.0 45.6 73.7 109.8 (TOTAL 780.0 1,185.6 1,915.6 2,854.7 source : MEPE Head Office

2-93 Table 2.5-11 Peak Load Forecast of Mandalay System

Mandalay S/S 1998-99 2001-2002 2005-2006 2009-2010 Span 3 4 4 Peak Load of Mandalay S/S [MW) 72 109.4 176.9 263.5 Annual Growth Rate M 14.96% 12.77% 10.47%

1998-99 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 Peak Load of Mandalay S/S [MW} 72 82.77 95.15 109.38 123.35 139.1 156.86 176.89 195.41 215.87 238.47 263.44 291.02 321.49 355.15 Annual Growth Rate [X] 14.96% 14.96% 14.96% 12.77% 12.77% 12.77% 12.77% 10.47% 10.47% 10.47% 10.47% 10.47% 10.47% 10.47% Times of Present Load 1.15 1.32 1.52 1.71 1.93 2.18 2.46 2.71 3.00 3.31 3.66 4.04 4.47 4.93

Target Year of Loss Reduction Project 2003 March Load Ratio of D/L 39% 44% 50% 55% 61% 67% 74% 82% 91% 100%

Aung Pin Lae S/S 1998-99 2001-2002 2005-2006 2009-2010 Span 3 4 4 Peak Load of Aung Pin Lae S/S [MW} 13.7 20.8 33.7 50.1 Annual Growth Rate [%] 14.93% 12.82% 10.42%

1998-99 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 Peak Load of Aung Pin Lae S/S [MW} 13.7 15.75 18.1 20.8 23.47 26.48 29.87 33.7 37.21 41.09 45.37 50.1 55.32 61.08 67.44 Annual Growth Rate [%] 14.96% 14.92% 14.92% 12.84% 12.82% 12.80% 12.82% 10.42% 10.43% 10.42% 10.43% 10.42% 10.41% 10.41% Times of Present Load 1.15 1.32 1.52 1.71 1.93 2.18 2.46 2.72 3.00 3.31 3.66 4.04 4.46 4.92

Target Year of Loss Reduction Project 2003 March Load Ratio of D/L 39% 44% 50% 55% 61% 67% 74% 82% 91% 100%

Mandalay S/S & Aung Pin Lae S/S 1998-99 2001-2002 2005-2006 2009-2010 Span 3 4 4 Peak Load of Both S/S [MW) 85.7 130.2 210.6 313.6 Annual Growth Rate [%] 14.96% 12.77% 10.47%

1998-99 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 Peak Load of Both S/S [MW) 85.7 98.52 113.26 130.2 146.83 165.58 186.72 210.56 232.61 256.96 283.86 313.58 346.41 382.68 422.75 Annual Growth Rate [%] 14.96% 14.96% 14.96% 12.77% 12.77% 12.77% 12.77% 10.47% 10.47% 10.47% 10.47% 10.47% 10.47% 10.47% Times of Present Load 1.00 1.15 1.32 1.49 1.68 1.90 2.14 2.36 2.61 2.88 3.18 3.52 3.88 4.29

Target Year of Loss Reduction Project 2003 March Load Ratio of D/L 39% 44% 50% 55% 61% 67% 74% 82% 91% 100%

2-95 2.5.2.5.4 Data Collection of Peak Load

Since it is impossible to simultaneously identify sending-end load values with respect to constantly changing power flows, MERE was asked to carry out a sampling survey of current in 11/0.4 kV transformers in seven townships and 400V feeders in two townships during the peak load time zone (19.00-20.00) from September to October 1999. The resulting obtained data were assumed to be the peak load at the year 1999.

2.5.2.5.5 Relationships between Transmission Loss Reduction at Peak time and Annual Reduction

The program FLOW.EXE which was developed by TEPSCO can calculate transmission loss at a certain point in time. To estimate an annual energy loss, it is necessary to calculate load conditions throughout the year. Since this is very time consuming and impractical, focused on relationships between peak load and annual energy and the load duration curve of the target systems, it is possible to calculate the annual reduction in energy loss from the reduction in transmission loss at the peak time. There are two systems targeted by the study, that is Mandalay System and Aungpinlae System. Since the load of Mandalay System accounts for more than 70% of total load of two substations, it was decided to use this as the representative system when preparing the load duration curve. Figure 2.5-12 shows the load duration curve viewed from the two 132kV transformers (80MVA + 30MVA) at Mandalay substation. This curve was prepared by arranging in order of size load data that were measured at hourly intervals throughout 1998 (8,760 hours). Various calculations can be made based on this load duration curve: for example, when peak load is reduced by 1 MW through reduction of transmission loss, the reduction in annual power energy is 3,754 MW, which is equivalent to 0.4285 times of the power energy obtained by multiplying the peak load reduction of 1 MW by 8,760 hours. The reduction in peak load and the annual reduction exist in a linear proportional relationship: for example, a peak load reduction of 2 MW will translate into an annual reduction of 2 x 8,760 x 0.4285 = 7,507 MWh. This constant (0.4285) is defined as the energy loss factor. In other words, if the peak load reduction over the whole Mandalay System is known, it is possible to calculate the annual energy loss reduction using the following equation:

Annual Energy Loss Reduction [MWh] = Peak Load Reduction [kW]

X Energy Loss Factor x 8,760 [h] -r 1,000

Furthermore, peak load and annual energy exist in the following relationship:

2-96 2.5.2.5.6 Data for Estimation of Unit Construction Cost

Concerning data for the estimation of unit construction costs, it was decided to utilize data acquired from MERE. Raw data on transformers acquired from MERE are indicated in Table 2.5-12, and the results of calculating for each type of transformer based on these are indicated in Table 2.5-13. Sample cost breakdowns for 33kV lines, llkV lines and 400V lines are indicated in Table 2.5-14, Table 2.5-15 and Table 2.5-16, respectively. However, the cost of size-up of conductor was estimated by TEPSCO. The unit construction cost for 33kV line and llkV line are listed in Table 2.5-17, while the unit construction cost for 400V line is listed in Table 2.5-18.

*

2-98 Table 2.5-12 Construction Cost of33/llkV and ll/0.4kV Transformer and Switchbay

Rate 6.48333 Kyats/US$

Unit in Kyats Unit in US$

Labour& I. 33/11kV Material Total Total Other

1 Transformer per MVA 70,200 46,500 116,700 18,000

2 Switch-Bay 33kV per Bay 130,000 52,000 182,000 28,072

3 Switch-Bay 11 kV per Bay 78,000 31,200 109,200 16,843

278,200 129,700 407,900 62,915

n. 11/0.4kV

1 Transformer per MVA 70200 46500 116,700 18,000

2 Switch-Bay 11 kV per Bay 78000 31200 109,200 16.843

148,200 77,700 225,900 34.843

Data from MERE Head Office

2-99 Table 2.5-13 Construction Unit Cost of Transformer

COST [US$ in Thousand]

Code of Facility Voltage Capacity Transformer Switchgears Total Table

33/11kV 30MVA 540.00 44.92 584.92 M30 33/11kV 25MVA 450.00 44.92 494.92 M25 33/11kV 20MVA 360.00 44.92 404.92 M20 33/11kV 15MVA 270.00 44.92 314.92 M15 33/11kV 10MVA 180.00 44.92 224.92 M10 33/11kV 7.5MVA 135.00 44.92 179.92 M7.5 33/11kV 5MVA 90.00 44.92 134.92 M5 33/11kV 2.5MVA 45.00 44.92 89.92 M2.5

11/0.4kV 1500kVA 27.00 16.84 43.84 L1500 11/0.4kV 1250kV A 22.50 16.84 39.34 L1250 11/0.4kV 10OOkVA 18.00 16.84 34.84 L1000 11/0.4kV SOOkVA 14.40 16.84 31.24 L800 11/0.4kV 750kVA 13.50 16.84 30.34 L750 11/0.4kV 630kVA 11.34 16.84 28.18 L630 11/0.4kV 625kVA 11.25 16.84 28.09 L625 11/0.4kV 500kVA 9.00 16.84 25.84 L500 11/0.4kV 400kVA 7.20 16.84 24.04 L400 11/0.4 kV 315kVA 5.67 16.84 22.51 L315 11/0.4kV 300kVA 5.40 16.84 22.24 L300 11 /0.4kV 250kVA 4.50 16.84 21.34 L250 11/0.4kV 200kVA 3.60 16.84 20.44 L200 11/0.4kV 180kVA 3.24 16.84 20.08 L180 11/0.4kV 160kVA 2.88 16.84 19.72 L160 11/0.4kV 150kVA 2.70 16.84 19.54 L150 11/0.4kV 125kVA 2.25 16.84 19.09 L125 11/0.4 kV 10OkVA 1.80 16.84 18.64 L100 11/0.4kV 80kVA 1.44 16.84 18.28 L80 11/0.4kV 75kVA 1.35 16.84 18.19 L75 11/0.4kV 50kVA 0.90 16.84 17.74 L50 11/0.4kV 30kVA 0.54 16.84 17.38 L30 11/0.4kV 25kVA 0.45 16.84 17.29 L25

2-100 Table 2.5-14 Example of 33kV Line Cost

Estimate of 33kV Overhead Line one mile TEPSCO ESTIMATES (Concrete Pole, Channel Iron Cross Arms, ACSR 100mm2) data from MEPE Re-stringing ______No. Description Unit Qty Rate Total Factor Total [Kyat] [Kyat] [Kyat] A. Material (Foreign) 2.447.000 1.626.800 33kV Tension Insulator with Fitting and Tension Clamp 1 Sets 18 10,000 180,000 for 100mm2 2 33kV Pin Insulator with Spindle Nos. 72 5,600 403,200 3 ACSR Conductor 100mm2 Ton 2 800,000 1,600,000 1 1,600,000 4 Aluminium Binding Wire No.10 Lbs 10 400 4,000 1 4,000 5 Aluminium Tape 0.5"x0.03" Lbs 4 450 1,800 1 1,800 6 Gl wire 7/10 for stay Lbs 150 250 37,500 7 Gl Wire 7/16 for Cradle Guard Lbs 50 250 12,500 8 Torsion Sleeve Joint for 100mm2 Nos. 6 1,500 9,000 1 9,000 9 PG Clamp for 100mm2 Nos. 12 1,000 12,000 1 12,000 10 Straininig Insulator (Big) Nos. 10 200 2,000 11 Channel Iron 5"x2.5"x10' Nos. 30 5,500 165,000 12 Angle Iron 2.5"x2.5"x1 O' Nos. 8 2,500 20,000

B. Material (Local) 659.900 0 1 10 meter Concrete Tubular Pole Nos. 25 18,000 450,000 2 M.S. Stay Rod Nos. 10 1,800 18,000 3 6" M.S Half Clamp for Stay Pairs 10 500 5,000 4 6" Full Clamp Nos. 50 300 15,000 5 M.S. Bracing for Supporting Cross Arm Pairs 25 800 20,000 6 D-lron for Tension Pole Nos. 18 150 2,700 7 M.S. Bolt and Nut 0.75" Assorted Length Nos. 300 120 36,000 8 M.S. Washers Nos. 300 10 3,000 9 Gl Pipe 1 "x 6" for Bushing Nos. 12 100 1,200 10 Danger Signboard Nos. 10 400 4,000 11 Erection Tools L.S 3,000 12 Concreting for Pole Footing and Stay Nos. 34 3,000 102,000

C. Service Charges 223.730 133.200 1 Transportion and Handling Charge L.S 80,000 0.5 40,000 2 Manufacturing and Fablication Charge L.S 10,000 0.5 5,000 3 Jungle Cleaning and Tree Cutting L.S 3,000 4 Surveying Work for Line Route Rft 5,280 5,280 5 Excavation for Pole Hole Nos. 25 6,250 6 Excavation for Stay Hole Nos. 10 2,000 7 Erection of Concrete Pole Nos. 25 20,000 8 Fixing of Cross Arm, Bracing and Insulators Nos. 30 9,000 9 Laying and Straining of Conductor Rft 5280x3 79,200 1 79,200 10 Miscellaneous L.S 3,000 1 3,000 11 TA and DA for Internal Labour L.S 6,000 1 6,000

A. Material (Foreign) 2.447,000 1.626,800 B. Material (Local) 659,900 0 C. Service Charges 223.730 133,200

Total 3,330,630 1,760,000

Without Conductor Without Conductor ______1,730,630 ______160,000

2-101 Table 2.5-15 Example of llkV Line Cost

Estimate of 11 kV Overhead Line one mile TEPSCO ESTIMATES (Concrete Pole, Channel Iron Cross Arms, ACSR 70mm2) data from MEPE______Re—stringing ______No. Description Unit Qty Rate Total Factor Total [Kyat] [Kyat] [Kyat] A. Material (Foreign) 1.537.750 1.222,350 11kV Tension Insulator with Fitting and Tension Clamp 1 Sets 24 3,700 88,800 for 70mm2 2 11 kV Pin Insulator with Spindle Nos. 81 900 72,900 3 ACSR Conductor 70mm2 Ton 1.5 800,000 1,200,000 1 1,200.000 4 Aluminium Binding Wire No.10 Lbs 6 400 2,400 1 2,400 5 Aluminium Tape 0.5"x0.03~ Lbs 3 450 1,350 1 1,350 6 Gl wire 7/10 for stay Lbs 130 250 32,500 7 Gl Wire 7/16 for Cradle Guard Lbs 50 250 12,500 8 Torsion Sleeve Joint for 70mm2 Nos. 6 1,100 6,600 1 6,600 9 PG Clamp for 70mm2 Nos. 15 800 12,000 1 12,000 10 4" Straininig Insulator Nos. 10 200 2,000 11 Channel Iron 4"x2 ”x2~x6.5 ’ Nos. 33 2,700 89,100 12 Angle Iron 2~x2~x'\0' Nos. 8 2,200 17,600

B. Material (Local) 541.000 0 1 Concrete Pole 30’ Nos. 28 13,000 364,000 2 Stay Rod Complete Set with M.S. Rod 0.75"x6 ’ Sets 10 1,800 18,000 3 6" M.S Half Clamp Pairs 10 500 5,000 4 6" Full Clamp Nos. 56 300 16,800 5 M.S. Bracing for Supporting Cross Arm Pairs 28 700 19,600 6 Gl Pile 1"x6" For Bushing Nos. 15 100 1,500 7 M.S. Bolt and Nut 0.75'x2"-6" Nos. 230 80 18,400 8 M.S. Bolt and Nut 0.75"x7"-1 2" Nos. 80 150 12,000 9 M.S.D Iron Nos. 24 150 3,600 10 M.S. Washers Nos. 330 10 3,300 11 Concreting for Pole Footing and Stay Nos. 28 2,600 72,800 12 Erection Tools L.S 3,000 13 Danger Signboard Nos. 10 300 3,000

C. Service Charges 198.480 119.200 1 Transportion and Handling Charge L.S 60,000 0.5 30,000 2 Manufacturing and Fablicating Charge L.S 6,000 0.5 3,000 3 Jungle Cleaning and Tree Cutting L.S 3,000 4 Measurement and Making of Line Route Rft 5,280 5,280 5 Excavation for Pole Hole 5 x2 x2 ’ Nos. 28 250 7,000 6 Excavation for Stay Hole 3 x2 x2 Nos. 10 200 2,000 7 Erection of Concrete Pole 30ft Nos. 28 800 22,400 8 Fixing of Cross Arm, Bracing and Insulators Nos. 33 200 6,600 9 Laying and Straining of Conductor Rft 5280x3 5 79,200 1 79,200 10 TA and DA for Internal Labour L.S 5,000 1 5,000 11 Miscellaneous L.S 2,000 1 2,000

A. Material (Foreign) 1,537,750 1,222,350 B. Material (Local) 541,000 0 C. Service Charges 198,480 119,200

Total 2,277,230 1,341.550

Without Conductor Without Conductor 1,077,230 141,550

2-102 Table 2.5-16 Example of 400V Line Cost

Estimate For 400V 3-phase 5 wire Overhead Line one mile TEPSCO ESTIMATES (Concrete Pole, Channel Iron Cross Arms, Horizontal Structure) data from MEPE Re—stringing ______No. Description Unit Qty Rate Total Factor Total [Kyat] [Kyat] [Kyat] A. Material 1 Shackele Insulator Nos. 250 100 25,000 2 M.S D Iron Nos. 250 100 25,000 3 M.S Shackle Straps Pairs 16 100 1,600 4 6" M.S Half Clamps Pairs 30 500 15,000 5 6" Dia M.S Full Clamps Nos. 80 500 40,000 6 M.S Stay Rod 3/4"x6' Complete Set Nos. 12 1,600 19,200 7 Straining Insulator Nos. 12 150 1,800 8 Gl Wire 7.10 for Stay Lbs. 180 250 45,000 9 Gl Wire 7.16 for Overhead Earthing Lbs. 430 250 107,500 10 Earth Rod and Clamp Nos. 6 1,000 6,000 11 Wire Grip for Overhead Earth Wire Nos. 20 350 7,000 12 Binding Copper Wire No(18) Lbs. 50 500 25,000 1 25,000 13 M.S Bolt and Nut 5/8 "x2"-6" Nos. 400 60 24.000 14 M.S Bolt and Nut 5/8"x8"-10" Nos. 100 100 10,000 15 M.S Washer with 3/4" Hole Nos. 500 10 5,000 16 9 Meter Concrete Pole Nos. 50 1,700 85,000 17 Angle Iron 2"x2"x4" for Cross Arm Nos. 50 1,000 50,000 18 M.S Bracing for Supporting Cross Arm Pairs 50 500 25,000 19 Cement, River, Shingle and Sand for Stay L.S 20,000 20 Erection Tools L.S 3,000 21 HDBC Wire SWG No.8x5 Wire Lbs. 2125 500 1,062,500 HDBC Wire SWG No.6x5 Wire Lbs. 3125 500 1,562,500 HHDBC Wire SWG No.4x5 Wire Lbs. 4625 500 2,312,50o| 1 2,312.500 HDBC Wire SWG No.2x5 Wire Lbs. 6375 500 3,187,500 HDBC Wire SWG No. 1x5 Wire Lbs. 9250 500 4,625,000

B. Service Charge 201.080 125.310 1 Tranportation and Handling L.S 50,000 0.5 25,000 2 Motor Car Repair & Fuel Cost L.S 15,000 0.5 7,500 ivittiiuievLurmg aitu i aufiuaung vi ovii&uuuuvu 3 L.S 5,000 0.5 2,500 4 Jungle Clearing and Tree Cutting L.S 2,000 5 Excavation of Pole and Stay Holes Nos. 62 200 12.400 6 Erection of Pole Nos. 50 500 25,000 7 Laying and Straining of Conductor Rft 26400 3 79,200 1 79,200 8 TA and DA for Internal Labour L.S 5.000 1 5,000 9 Unexpected Expenditure L.S 2,000 1 2,000 10 Internal Labour SAE M.D 10 42 420 0.5 210 FM M.D 10 42 420 0.5 210 G I M.D 15 32 480 0.5 240 g n M.D 15 32 480 0.5 240 cm M.D 20 27 540 0.5 270 GIV M.D 20 20 400 0.5 200 Overhead Charge (100% in External and Internal 11 2,740 1 2,740 Labour)

Estimate for 400volt 3 phase 5 wire overhead line one mile construction with concrete pole, angle iron cross arm and SWG No.4 HDBC wire. A. Material 2,852,600 2,337,500 B. Service Charge 201,080 125.310

Total 3,053,680 2,462,810

Without Conductor Without Conductor 741,180 150,310

2-103 Table 2.5-17 Construction Unit Cost of 33kV and 1 lkV Lines

Excahnge Rate

350 Kyats/US$

1.609 km/mile

NEW CONSTRUCTION COST RE-STRINGING COST

Cost per Mile Cost per km Cost per Mile Cost per km

Code of Foreign Local Service Foreign Local Service Foreign Local Service Foreign Local Service Foreign Local Service Foreign Local Service Foreign Local Service Foreign Local Service Voltage Conductor Type Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Total Facility Table Material Material Charge Material Material Charge Material Material Charge Material Material Charge Material Material Charge Material Material Charge Material Material Charge Material Material Charge

kV Kyats in Thousand US$ in Thousand Kyats in Thousand US$ in Thousand Kyats in Thousand US$ in Thousand Kyats in Thousand US$ in Thousand

33 ACSR70mm2 MA70 2,047 660 224 2,931 5.85 1.89 0.64 8.38 1,272 410 139 1,821 3.64 1.17 0.4 5.21 1,227 0 133 1,360 3.51 0 0.38 3.89 763 0 83 846 2.18 0 0.24 2.42

33 ACSR100mm2 MAI 00 2,447 660 224 3,331 6.99 1.89 0.64 9.52 1,521 410 139 2,070 4.34 1.17 0.4 5.91 1,627 0 133 1,760 4.65 0 0.38 5.03 1,011 0 83 1,094 2.89 0 0.24 3.13

33 ACSR120mm2 MAI 20 2,687 660 224 3,571 7.68 1.89 0.64 10.21 1,670 410 139 2,219 4.77 1.17 0.4 6.34 1,867 0 133 2,000 5.33 0 0.38 5.71 1,160 0 83 1,243 3.31 0 0.24 3.55

33 ACSR135mm2 MAI 35 2,927 660 224 3,811 8.36 1.89 0.64 10.89 1,819 410 139 2,368 5.2 1.17 0.4 6.77 2.107 0 133 2,240 6.02 0 0.38 6.40 1,310 0 83 1,393 3.74 0 0.24 3.98

33 ACSR150mm2 MAI 50 3,087 660 224 3,971 8.82 1.89 0.64 11.35 1,919 410 139 2,468 5.48 1.17 0.4 7.05 2,267 0 133 2,400 6.48 0 0.38 6.86 1,409 0 83 1,492 4.03 0 0.24 4.27

33 ACSR1 70mm2 MAI 70 3,407 660 224 4,291 9.73 1.89 0.64 12.26 2,117 410 139 2,666 6.05 1.17 0.4 7.62 2,587 0 133 2,720 7.39 0 0.38 7.77 1,608 0 83 1,691 4.59 0 0.24 4.83

33 ACSR200mm2 MA200 3,807 660 224 4,691 10.88 1.89 0.64 13.41 2,366 410 139 2,915 6.76 1.17 0.4 8.33 2,987 0 133 3,120 8.53 0 0.38 8.91 1,856 0 83 1,939 5.3 0 0.24 5.54

33 ACSR305mm2 MA305 5,167 660 224 6,051 14.76 1.89 0.64 17.29 3,211 410 139 3,760 9.17 1.17 0.4 10.74 4,347 0 133 4,480 12.42 0 0.38 12.80 2,702 0 83 2,785 7.72 0 0.24 7.96

33 ACSR400mm2 MA400 6,447 660 224 7,331 18.42 1.89 0.64 20.95 4,007 410 139 4,556 11.45 1.17 0.4 13.02 5,627 0 133 5,760 16.08 0 0.38 16.46 3,497 0 83 3,580 9.99 0 0.24 10.23

11 ACSR25mm2 JA25 738 541 198 1,477 2.11 1.55 0.57 4.23 459 336 123 918 1.31 0.96 0.35 2.62 422 0 119 541 1.21 0 0.34 1.55 262 0 74 336 0.75 0 0.21 0.96

11 ACSR35mm2 JA35 938 541 198 1,677 2.68 1.55 0.57 4.8 583 336 123 1,042 1.67 0.96 0.35 2.98 622 0 119 741 1.78 0 0.34 2.12 387 0 74 461 1.11 0 0.21 1.32

11 ACSR50mm2 JA50 1,218 541 198 1,957 3.48 1.55 0.57 5.6 757 336 123 1,216 2.16 0.96 0.35 3.47 902 0 119 1,021 2.58 0 0.34 2.92 561 0 74 635 1.6 0 0.21 1.81

11 ACSR70mm2 JA70 1,538 541 198 2,277 4.39 1.55 0.57 6.51 956 336 123 1,415 2.73 0.96 0.35 4.04 1,222 0 119 1,341 3.49 0 0.34 3.83 759 0 74 833 2.17 0 0.21 2.38

11 ACSR100mm2 JA100 1,938 541 198 2,677 5.54 1.55 0.57 7.66 1.204 336 123 1,663 3.44 0.96 0.35 4.75 1,622 0 119 1,741 4.63 0 0.34 4.97 1,008 0 74 1,082 2.88 0 0.21 3.09

11 ACSR120mm2 JA120 2,178 541 198 2,917 6.22 1.55 0.57 8.34 1,354 336 123 1,813 3.87 0.96 0.35 5.18 1,862 0 119 1,981 5.32 0 0.34 5.66 1,157 0 74 1,231 3.31 0 0.21 3.52

11 ACSR135mm2 JA135 2,418 541 198 3,157 6.91 1.55 0.57 9.03 1,503 336 123 1,962 4.29 0.96 0.35 5.6 2,102 0 119 2,221 6.01 0 0.34 6.35 1,306 0 74 1,380 3.74 0 0.21 3.95

11 ACSR150mm2 JA150 2,578 541 198 3,317 7.37 1.55 0.57 9.49 1,602 336 123 2,061 4.58 0.96 0.35 5.89 2,262 0 119 2,381 6.46 0 0.34 6.80 1,406 0 74 1,480 4.01 0 0.21 4.22

11 ACSR170mm2 JA170 2,898 541 198 3,637 8.28 1.55 0.57 10.4 1,801 336 123 2,260 5.15 0.96 0.35 6.46 2,582 0 119 2,701 7.38 0 0.34 7.72 1,605 0 74 1,679 4.59 0 0.21 4.8

11 ACSR200mm2 JA200 3,298 541 198 4,037 9.42 1.55 0.57 11.54 2,050 336 123 2,509 5.85 0.96 0.35 7.16 2,982 0 119 3,101 8.52 0 0.34 8.86 1,853 0 74 1,927 5.3 0 0.21 5.51

11 ACSR305mm2 JA305 4,658 541 198 5,397 13.31 1.55 0.57 15.43 2,895 336 123 3,354 8.27 0.96 0.35 9.58 4,342 0 119 4,461 12.41 0 0.34 12.75 2,699 0 74 2,773 7.71 0 0.21 7.92

11 ACSR400mm2 JA400 5,938 541 198 6,677 16.97 1.55 0.57 19.09 3,690 336 123 4,149 10.55 0.96 0.35 11.86 5,622 0 119 5,741 16.06 0 0.34 16.40 3,494 0 74 3,568 9.98 0 0.21 10.19

2-105 Tabic 2.5-18 Const ruction Unit Cost of 400V Lines

Excahnge Rate

350 Kyats/US$

1.609 km/mile

NEW CONSTRUCTION COST RE STRINGING COST

Cost per Mile Cost per km Cost per Mile Cost per km

Code of Facility Service Service Service Service Service Service Service Service Voltage Conductor Type Material Total Material Total Material Total Material Total Material Total Material Total Material Total Material Total Table Charge Charge Charge Charge Charge Charge Charge Charge

V Kyats in Thousand US$ in Thousand Kyats in Thousand US$ in Thousand Kyats in Thousand US$ in Thousand Kyats in Thousand US$ in Thousand

400 HDBCS.W.G8 LHS8 1,603 201 1.804 4.58 0.57 5.15 996 125 1,121 2.85 0.35 3.20 1,088 125 1,213 3.11 0.36 3.47 676 78 754 1.93 0.22 2.15

400 HDBCS.W.G6 LHS6 2,103 201 2,304 6.01 0.57 6.58 1,307 125 1,432 3.74 0.35 4.09 1,588 125 1.713 4.54 0.36 4.90 987 78 1,065 282 022 3.04

400 HDBCS.W.G4 LHS4 2,853 201 3,054 8.15 0.57 8.72 1,773 125 1,898 5.07 0.35 5.42 2,338 125 2,463 6.68 0.36 7.04 1,453 78 1,531 4.15 0.22 4,37

400 HDBCS.W.G2 LHS2 3,728 201 3,929 10.65 0.57 11.22 2.317 125 2,442 6.62 0.35 6.97 3,213 125 3,338 9.18 0.36 9.54 1,997 78 2,075 5.71 0.22 5.93

400 HDBCS.W.G1 LHS1 4,417 201 4,618 12.62 0.57 13.19 2,745 125 2,870 7.84 0.35 8.19 3,902 125 4,027 11.15 0.36 11.51 2,425 78 2,503 6.93 0.22 7.15

400 HDBCS.W.G1/0 LHS110 5,062 201 5,263 14.46 0.57 15.03 3,146 125 3,271 8.99 0.35 9.34 4,547 125 4,672 12.99 0.36 13.35 2,826 78 2,904 8.07 0.22 8.29

400 HDBCS.W.G2/0 LHS2|0 5,756 201 5,957 16.45 0.57 17.02 3,577 125 3,702 10.22 0.35 10.57 5,241 125 5,366 14.97 0.36 15.33 3,257 78 3,335 9.3 0.22 9.52

2-107 2.5.2.5.7 Data used as Benefit

It is necessary to conduct examination with a view to compiling economic indices for showing the kind of benefit that is generated as a result of the reduction of energy loss. Benefit in the Project shall be classified into the reduction in power station construction cost (power value) and fuel cost (energy value) and shall be the sum of these. Implementation of the Project will lead to reduction of peak load and will make it possible to limit the quantity of power generation facilities and transmission and transformer facilities to be developed to meet the peak load. The power value is obtained by converting this reduction in facilities development into concrete cost. Moreover, by reducing transmission energy loss, it is also possible to reduce fuel consumption at thermal power stations. The energy value is obtained by converting this reduction in fuel burning into concrete cost. In order to resolve this problem of power source planning, power utilities usually set a long term marginal cost, however, since no data on long term marginal cost exist in Myanmar, TEPSCO attempted to devise its own setting. Considering that Myanmar is blessed with abundant hydropower resources, it is likely that development of hydropower will be advanced in a long term, however, in order to satisfy the rapidly growing demand, there is a strong possibility that abundant gas fields will be utilized and that a 150MW class combined cycle power station, which can be constructed in the short term at low cost, will be constructed. Accordingly, data for calculating benefit shall be based on the costs for a 150 MW combined cycle power station. However, since transmission and transformer costs that are required for linking developed power sources to the grid are unknown, these shall be omitted. The costs involved in a 150MW-class combined cycle power station are indicated in Table 2.5-19. According to the table, the power value when converted into annual expenses is 81.37 [US$/kWyear] and the energy value is 0.03718 [US$/kWh]. Moreover, in carrying out calculation, the plant service life of 25 years was assumed to be the depreciation period, and a discount rate of 10% and annual operation and maintenance costs equivalent to 1% of the construction works cost were incorporated.

2-108 Table 2.5-19 Cost of 150MW Combined Cycle Plant

Total Constnretion Cost Cl 97.500,000 US$

Output of generator end C2 150 MW Total Construction Cost per kW at generator end C3 650 US$/kW

Auxiliary Power Factor C4 4 %

Output of sending end C5=C1-C1*C4 144 MW

Ratio of O&M Cost to Construction Cost C6 1 % Total Construction Cost per kW at sending end C7 677.1 US$/kW

File! Unit Price FI 240 US$/t

Fuel Heat Value F2 11,800 keal/kg Plant Heat Rate F3 1.755 kcal/kWli Energy Cost at generator end F4=F1’F3/(F2*1000) 0.03569 USJ./kWh Energy Cost at sending end F5=F4/(100%-C4) 0.03718 US$/kWh

Inpul Data Total Construction Cost per kW at sending end a=C7 677.1US$/kW Depreciation Periods b 25years Discount Rate c 10.00% Capital Recovery Factor (CRF) d 11.017% Ratio of O&M Cost to Construction Cost e=C6 1.0%/kW

Annual Capital Cost a*d+a*e 81J7 US$/kW-year

[ANNUAL COST]

A 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th 19th 20th 21th 22th 23 th 24th 25th total

TOTAL COST per kW (US$) B=a*d 74.59 74.59 74.59 74.59 74.59 74.59 74.59 74.59 74.59 74.59 74.59 74.59 74.59 74.59 74.59 74.59 74.59 74.59 74.59 74.59 74.59 74.59 74.59 74.59 74.59 1864.75

ANNUAL OAM COST per kW (US$) C=a*e 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 6.77 169.25

TOTAL ANNUAL COST per kW (US$) D=B+C 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 8136 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36 81.36

COEFFICIENT OF COMPOUND INTEREST E=(l +c)'A 0.90909 0.82645 0.75131 0.68301 0.62092 0.56447 0.51316 0.46651 0.42410 0.38554 0.35049 0.31863 0.28966 0.26333 0.23939 0.21763 0.19784 0.17986 0.16351 0.14864 0.13513 0.12285 0.11168 0.10153 0.09230

TOTAL COST per kW AT PRESENT PRICE (US$) F=B*E 67.81 61.64 56.04 50.95 4631 42.10 38.28 34.80 31.63 28.76 26.14 23.77 21.61 19.64 17.86 16.23 14.76 13.42 12.20 11.09 10.08 9.16 8.33 7.57 6.88 677.06

ANNUAL OAM COST per kW AT PRESENT PRICE (US$) G=C«E 6.15 5.60 5.09 4.62 4.20 3.82 3.47 3.16 2.87 2.61 2.37 2.16 1.96 1.78 1.62 1.47 1.34 1.22 1.11 1.01 0.91 0.83 0.76 0.69 0.62 61.45

TOTAL ANNUAL COST per kW AT PRESENT PRICE (US$) H=F+G 73.96 67.24 61.13 55.57 50.52 45.93 41.75 37.96 34.50 31.37 28.52 25.92 23.57 21.42 19.48 17.71 16.10 14.63 13.30 12.09 10.99 9.99 9.09 8.26 7.51 738.51

ACCUMULATION OF TOTAL ANNUAL COST per kW AT PRESENT PRICE (US$) I=EH 73.96 141.20 202.33 257.90 308.42 354.34 396.09 434.05 468.55 499.92 528.44 554.36 577.93 599.35 618.83 636.54 652.63 667.27 680.57 692.66 703.66 713.65 722.74 731.00 738.51

2-110 2.5.2.5.S Setting of Criteria for Economic Evaluation

Table 2.5-20 shows expenditure over 10 years assuming the costs and countermeasure works expenses that were set in section 2.5.2.5.7. In this table, if it is assumed that the cost of countermeasures required to reduce transmission loss by lkW at peak time is US$1, the present value of countermeasure costs over 10 years will be US$0.73838. In carrying out calculation, the plant service life of 25 years was assumed to be the depreciation period, and a discount rate of 10% and annual operation and maintenance costs equivalent to 1% of the construction works cost were incorporated. As for benefit, this shall be sought based on the costs of a 150MW-class combined cycle power station (Table 2.5-19). As for conversion from loss reduction at peak time to annual loss reduction, the energy loss factor introduced in section 2.5.2.5.5 is used. Moreover, in cases where there is no reinforcement of transmission and transformer facilities, since the transmission loss increases by the square of the increase in load, this has been reflected in the calculation. As a result, the benefit over 10 years works out to be US$3,610 at present value. When countermeasure works costs of US$1 required to reduce loss by lkW are converted into annual expenses and each year’s operation and maintenance costs are incorporated, the cost over 10 years is US$0.73838, while the benefit that can be obtained over 10 years is US$3,610. By seeking a balance between cost and benefit over 10 years, the upper limit for construction works cost can be obtained as follows: 3,610/0.73838 = US$4,889. Put another way, if transmission energy loss at peak time can be reduced by lkW at a project cost of US$4,889, it will be possible to recover the original investment after 10 years and the benefit will exceed the cost from the 11th year onwards. In selecting the optimal project plan, the study shall be advanced through adopting US$4,889 as the upper limit. Incidentally, the reason why the upper limit for the facilities operating rate was set at 0.39 in section 2.5.2.5.3 is because it was considered that the Project facilities will not need to be reinforced to cope with increase of demand for 10 years. Figure 2.5-13 shows the relationships between cost, benefit and net benefit when the construction works cost is US$4,889 and US$2,919.

2-111 Table 2.5-20 Loss Evaluation Constant on Expenditure Base

COUNTERMEASURE (T&D SYSTEM REINIDRCEMENT) Assumed Total Construction Cost lUS$/kW Depreciation Periods b 25years Discount Rate c 10.00% Capital Recovery Factor (CRF) d 11.017% Ratio of Annual O&M Cost to Construction Cost e 1.0%/kW

c(l+c)b CRF = ------(1+c)h -l

(ANNUM, COST OF COUNTERMEASURE]

year A 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th total

COUNTERMEASURE COST (US$) B=a*d 0.11017 0.11017 0.11017 0.11017 0.11017 0.11017 0.11017 0.11017 0.11017 0.11017 1.10168

ANNUAL OAM COST (US$) C=a*e 0.01000 0.01000 0.01000 0.01000 0.01000 0.01000 0.01000 0.01000 0.01000 0.01000 0.10000

TOTAL ANNUAL COST (US$) D=B+C 0.12017 0.12017 0.12017 0.12017 0.12017 0.12017 0.12017 0.12017 0.12017 0.12017

COEFFICIENT OF COMPOUND INTEREST E=(1+c)a 0.90909 0.82645 0.75131 0.68301 0.62092 0.56447 0.51316 0.46651 0.42410 0.38554

COUNTERMEASURE COST AT PRESENT PRICE (US$) F=B*E 0.10015 0.09105 0.08277 0.07525 0.06841 0.06219 0.05653 0.05139 0.04672 0.04247 0.67694

ANNUAL O&M COST AT PRESENT PRICE (US$) O-C'E 0.00909 0.00826 0.00751 0.00683 0.00621 0.00564 0.00513 0.00467 0.00424 0.00386 0.06145

TOTAL ANNt IAL COST (US$) AT PRESENT PRICE (US$) H-F+G 0.10924 0.09931 0.09028 0.08208 0.07461 0.06783 0.06167 0.05606 0.05096 0.04633 0.73838

ACCUMULATION OF TOTAL ANNUAL COST (US$) AT PRESENT PRICE (US$) 1=2)11 0.10924 0.20856 0.29884 0.38092 0.45553 0.52336 0.58503 0.64109 0.69205 0.73838

Alternative Marginal Cost of 150MW Combined Cycle Power Plant Total Construction Cost per kW at sending end f 677.10 US$/kW Annual Capacity Cost including O&MCost at sending end g 81.37 US$/kW/year Energy Cost h 0.03718 US$/kWh Energy Loss Factor______i______0.4285 ______

(ANNUAL BENEFIT]

year J 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th total

GROWTH RATE OF PEAK LOAD (%) K - 12.77% 12.77% 10.47% 10.47% 10.47% 10.47% 10.47% 10.47% 10.47%

REDUCED POWER LOSS (kW) L.=L»,*(1+K/ 1.000 1.272 1.617 1.974 2.408 2.939 3.587 4.377 5.341 6.519

REDUCED CAPACITY COST (US$) M=Ln*g 81.4 103.5 131.6 160.6 196.0 239.1 291.8 356.1 434.6 530.4 2,525

REDUCED ENERGY LOSS (kWh) N=Ln*8760* i 3,754 4.773 6,070 7,408 9,040 11,032 13,463 16,429 20,050 24,468

REDUCED ENERGY COST(US$) 0=N*h 140 177 226 275 336 410 501 611 745 910 4,331

REDUCED TOTAL COST (US$) P=M+0 221 281 357 436 532 649 792 967 1,180 1,440 6,856

COEFFICIENT OF COMPOUND INTEREST Q=(l+c)1 0.909 0.826 0.751 0.683 0.621 0.564 0.513 0.467 0.424 0.386

REDUCED TOTAL COST AT PRESENT VALUE (US$) R=P*Q 201 232 268 298 330 367 407 451 500 555 3,610

ACCUMULATION OF REDUCED TOTAL COST AT PRESENT VALUE (US*) S=ZR 201 433 701 999 1,330 1,696 2,103 2,554 3,054 3,610 16,681

(MARGINAL CONSTRUCTION COST OF COUNTERMEASURE]

Target Year for Total Net Present Value to be surplused T 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10

ACCUMULATION OF TOTAL ANNUAL COST (US*) AT PRESENT PRICE (US*) U=l 0.10924 0.20856 0.29884 0.38092 0.45553 0.52336 0.58503 0.64109 0.69205 0.73838

ACCUMULATION OF REDUCED TOTAL COST AT PRESENT VALUE (US*) v=s 201 433 701 999 1,330 1,696 2,103 2.554 3,054 3,610

MARGINAL CONSTRUCTION COST OF COUNTERMEASURE [US*/kW] W=V/U 1,839 2,076 2,347 2,623 2,919 3,241 3,594 3.984 4,413 4,889

2-114 2.S.2.6 Transmission Energy Loss at Baseline

Using the demand forecast and system constants described so far, loss calculation of transmission system based on power flow calculations shall be performed in order to determine the baseline of transmission loss before countermeasure. Incidentally, here the naming of voltage classes and lines shall be as indicated in Table 2.5-21.

Table 2.5-21 Definition of Name of Voltage System

Voltage Name of Voltage Class Name of Line Name of System

132kV HV (High Voltage) HV System Transmission Line 33kV MV (Medium Voltage) MV System llkV Distribution Line 400V LV (Low Voltage) LV System

2.5.2.6.1 Power Loss in HV System and MV Systems at Peak Load

The calculation results excluding the 400V system loss at the year 2003-2004 are as indicated in Table 2.5-22. Transmission power loss of 14,622kW will arise and the transmission loss ratio will be 12.20% in the seven townships of Mandalay District at peak load time. The 11 kV distribution line will account for 58% of this loss and the 33kV transmission line 19%, making 77% in both. Furthermore, power loss in the adjoining higher-class 132kV line will be 7,503kW and the loss ratio will be 5.89%. Therefore, the total power loss and loss ratio when the 132kV line is included will be 22,125kW and 17.37%, respectively. See Appendix- 1 for the detailed calculation results from the 132kV-33kV system and Appendix-2 for the integrated calculation results in each llkV system.

2-115 Table 2.5-22 Loss Calculation Results excluding 400V Line Loss in 2003-2004

Incoming Outgoing Loss Rate kW kW kW %

132k V Line a 127,371 119,868 7,503 5.89% 4 132kV/33, llkVTr b 119,868 119,168 700 0.58% 33kV Line c 93,491 90,726 2,765 2.96% 33/llkV Tr d 90,726 89,736 990 1.09% subtotal e=b+c+d 119,868 115,413 4,455 3.72% llkV Line f 111,381 102,839 8,542 7.67% ll/0.4kV Tr g 102,839 101,214 1,625 1.58% subtotal h=f+g 111,381 101,214 10,167 9.13% Mandalay District MV System I=e+h 119,868 105,246 14,622 12.20% MV System + 132kV Line j=a+I 127,371 105,246 22,125 17.37%

2.S.2.6.2 Transmission Loss in LV Systems at Peak Load

The results of calculating transmission loss in low voltage 400V systems in the two townships (Chan Aye Tha Zan and Maha Aung Myay) in Mandalay District are as indicated in Table 2.5-23. Transmission power loss of 5,912kW will arise and the transmission loss ratio will be 18.86% in the two townships at peak load time. See Appendix-3 for the integrated calculation results in the 400V system.

Table 2.5-23 400V Line Loss Calculation Results of 2 Townships in 2003-2004 Incoming Outgoing Loss Rate kW kW kW % 400V Line in 2 Townships 31,355 25,443 5,912 18.86%

2.S.2.6.3 Transmission Loss Including LV System Loss at Peak Load

Since the calculation for the 400V systems only covers the above two townships, assuming that a similar loss ratio exists for the remaining 5 townships, the estimated loss ratio at peak load throughout all Mandalay District including the 132kV system is as indicated in Table 2.5-24. According to the table, the loss ratio over all Mandalay District is 28.12% and this rises to 32.36% when the 132kV system is included.

2-116 Table 2.5-24 Loss Estimation including 400kV Line Loss at Peak Time Incoming Outgoing Loss Rate kW kW kW %

Mandalay District MV A 119,868 105,246 14,622 12.20% 400V Line in 7 Townships B 101,214 82,125 19,089 18.86%

MV+400V Line C=A+B 119,868 86,157 33,711 28.12%

Mandalay District MV + 132kV Line D 127,371 105,246 22,125 17.37% 400V Line in 7 Townships E 101,214 82,125 19,089 18.86%

MV+400V+132kV Line F=D+E 127,371 86,157 41,214 32.36%

2.5.2.6A Annual Transmission Energy Loss in HV System and MV Systems

The annual energy loss shall be estimated from the above transmission loss at peak load. As for the method of conversion from incoming power and power loss to incoming energy and annual energy loss, annual energy and annual energy loss can be estimated from the load factor and energy loss factor which were calculated in Section 2.5.2.5.5. The load factor and energy loss factor have been indicated in Figure 2.5-12. The results of estimation are indicated in Table 2.5-25. Annual transmission energy loss of 54,887MWh will arise and the transmission loss ratio will be 8.17% in the seven townships of Mandalay District at peak load time (excluding loss in the 400V system). Furthermore, energy loss in the adjoining higher-class 132kV line will be 28,164MWh and the loss ratio will be 4.02%. Therefore, the total energy loss and loss ratio when the 132kV line is included will be 83,051 MWh and 11.86%, respectively.

2-117 Table 2.5-25 Annual Energy Loss excluding 400V Line Loss in 2003-2004 Incoming Outgoing Loss Rate MWh MWh MWh % 132kV Line a 700,232 672,068 28,164 4.02%

132kV/33, llkVTr b 672,068 669,440 2,628 0.39% 33kV Line c 525,077 514,698 10,379 1.98% 33/llkV Tr d 514,698 510,982 3,716 0.72% subtotal e=b+c+d 672,068 510,982 16,723 2.49% llkV Line f 632,386 600,322 32,064 5.07% ll/0.4kV Tr g 600,322 594,222 6,100 1.02% subtotal h=f+g 632,386 594,222 38,164 6.03% Mandalay District MV System I=e+h 672,068 617,181 54,887 8.17%

Including 132kV Line j=a+I 700,232 617,181 83,051 11.86%

2.5.2.6.S Annual Transmission Energy Loss in LV Systems

The results of calculating energy loss in the low voltage 400V systems in the two townships (Chan Aye Tha Zan and Maha Aung Myay) in Mandalay District are as indicated in Table 2.5-26. Annual energy loss of 22,191MWh will arise and the loss ratio will be 12.05% in the two townships.

Table 2.5-26 Annual Energy Loss of 400V Line of 2 Townships in 2003-2004 Incoming Outgoing Loss Rate MWh MWh MWh % 400V Line in 2 Townships 184,084 161,893 22,191 12.05%

2.5.2.6.6 Annual Energy Loss including LV System Loss

Since calculation for the 400V systems only covers the above two townships, assuming that a similar loss ratio exists for the remaining 5 townships, the estimated annual loss ratio throughout all Mandalay District including the 132kV system is indicated in Table 2.5-27. According to the table, the loss ratio over all Mandalay District is 18.83% and this rises to 22.09% when the 132kV system is included. Therefore, as was mentioned in Section 2.5.1.3, an average loss of 38% arises throughout all Mandalay Division and judging from the calculation results, roughly a half of the energy loss occurring in Mandalay District is transmission and distribution loss and the remaining half is non ­ technical loss.

2-118 Table 2.5-27 Annual Energy Loss Estimation including 400kV Line Loss Incoming Outgoing Loss Rate MWh MWh MWh % Mandalay District MV A 672,068 617,181 54,887 8.17% 400V Line in 7 Townships B 594,222 522,569 71,653 12.06%

MV+400V Line C=A+B 672,068 545,528 126,540 18.83% Mandalay District MV + 132kV Line D 700,232 617,181 83,051 11.86% 400V Line in 7 Townships E 594,222 522,569 71,653 12.06% MV+400V+132kV Line F=D+E 700,232 545,528 154,704 22.09%

2.52.1 Study on Loss Reduction Scheme

When studying loss reduction scheme, the calculation tool PLOPT, which was in-house software of TEPSCO, was used. PLOPT is capable of mechanically generating a large quantity of alternative countermeasure plans and extracting the optimal plan which offers the highest net benefit. PLOPT is good for carrying out examination in line with simple predetermined guidelines, however, load switchover and so on that takes adjoining systems into account cannot be calculated since there are no geometrical information among input data. Although this is a useful tool for achieving efficiency in study of medium and low voltage distribution systems (which entail large amounts of work), manual modification by human is also necessary.

2.5.2.7.1 Loss Reduction Scheme for MV System

The results of examining countermeasures for the medium voltage (33kV, llkV) systems of Mandalay substation and Aungpinlae substation are described as below. (1) 33kV Transmission Line to be Considered when Formulating Transmission Loss Reduction Schemes From the results of calculations by PLOPT, optimal plans of 33kV line installation where the net benefit reached 500 thousand in US$ or more were as follows. In view of these findings, countermeasures for the llkV system shall be compiled.

2-119 Table 2.5-28 Optimal Plan of 33kV Same Voltage New Lines calculated by PLOPT Net New Line Loss Benefit Cost Benefit Section Conductor Old New Reduced Length [kWl riooous$i Mandalay - ACSR400 Industrial Zone 668.4 156.0 512.4 1,850 61 1,789 6.4km (MDY80S-IZ) Mandalay - 59th ACSR400 Street 607.1 90.4 516.6 1,865 61 1,804 6.4km (59THN-59TH) Aungpinlae - ACSR400 Myaukpyin 245.4 70.6 174.8 631 106 525 11km (MYPN-MYP)

(2) Plans for llkV Systems Based upon calculation results using PLOPT for all 11 kV distribution lines having 43 feeders, it was found that the following 14 feeders would benefit greatly from the introduction of higher voltage system. Therefore, appropriate countermeasures shall be taken.

Table 2.5-29 Optimal Plans of Higher Voltage Introduction to llkV Systems calculated by PLOPT Net Loss Benefit Cost Benefit llkV Feeder Name Old New Reduced [kWl riooousi Industrial Zone F3 678 145 533 1,924 32 1,892 Industrial Zone F4 378 55 323 1,164 10 1,154 Nandwin 262 31 231 834 29 805 26th Street 90 27 63 227 15 212 22nd Street 246 49 197 713 16 697 21 Mile 3,111 105 3,006 10,851 160 10,691 Amarapura 447 51 396 1,42:9 26 1,403 Mandalay 2 226 41 185 6 66 24 642 Mandalay 3 300 60 240 865 19 846 62nd Street 340 53 286 1,034 15 1,019 Aungpinlae 2 205 52 153 552 15 537 Wakingone 222 45 177 639 18 621 Patheingyi 217 60 158 569 20 549 MIT 106 30 77 277 30 247 Moreover, sections where improvement can be expected through adopting larger conductors are as

2-120 indicated as below. Cost and benefit values are given for the case where larger conductors are adopted for all sections. And each size of conductor will differ in each span.

Table 2.5-30 O]itimal Plan of Conductor Size-u ) calculated by PLOPT Net Loss Benefit Cost Benefit llkV Feeder Name Old New Reduced IkWl riooous$i Industrial Zone F4 374.9 32.5 342.4 1,235 29 1,206 Mandalay 1 220.2 19.8 200.4 725 43 682 Nanshae -Aungpinlae 1,159.5 108.3 1051.1 3,792 84 3,708

(3) Outline of Countermeasure Works Based on the PLOPT calculation results, the plans have been corrected to be reasonable by human. Figure 2.5-14 provides the outline of countermeasure plans. The plans were divided into eight separate project plans according to the target system. These plans are collectively named as Project 1. The construction scale of Project 1 is indicated in Table 2.5-31, and the project cost roughly works out as 4,167 in thousand US$.

Table 2.5-31 Construction Scale of Projectl Cost QTY riooous$i 33kV New Line Total 63.58 km 643.47 33kV Conductor Size-up Total 3.2 km 32.74 llkV New Line Total 6.659 km 67.79 llkV Conductor Size-up Total 3.82 km 38.93 33/llkV Transformer Total 13 set 1395.00 33kV Switchgear Total 38 set 1066.66 llkV Switchgear Total 31 set 522.04 Capacitor Total 2 set 400.00 33/llkV Transformer Capacity Total 77.5 MVA Capacitor Capacity Total 20MVA Total Cost 4,166.63

2-121 Table 2.5-32 Project Cost Cost [1000US$1

Projectl-1 607.22 Projectl-2 434.40 Projectl-3 912.86 Projectl-4 339.04 Projectl-5 294.29 Projectl-6 432.07 Projectl-7 221.89 Projectl-8 924.86 Total 4166.63

(4) Outline of Each Project The outline of each project is explained here. Refer to Figure 2.5-14for the relevant drawing and Table 2.5-33 for the construction cost. The locations of substation have been slightly altered from the optimal sites, since such alteration is necessary from the viewpoint of workability. The locations of NND, NM, N65, NW, NS and NP has been altered based on recommendations through discussions with the MEPE during the Third Field Survey.

[Projectl-1] (Figure 2.5-14a) Project 1-1 is a countermeasure for an existing 33kV transmission lines (Mandalay - Industrial Zone) and existing llkV distribution lines of Industrial Zone Feeder 3 and 4. A new 33/llkV substation, NIZ will be constructed near the end of the llkV Industrial Zone F4 distribution line. In addition, a new 33kV transmission line will be constructed from the Mandalay Substation to this new substation, NIZ. The new substation, NIZ will serve the power to the load of the Industrial Zone F3 distribution line and the entire load of the Industrial Zone F4 distribution line. Another new 33/llkV substation, NA will be constructed near the end of the llkV Industrial Zone F3 distribution line. This substation, NA will serve the power to the load of the Industrial Zone F3 distribution line. Moreover, the conductor at the end of the llkV Industrial Zone F4 distribution line will be replaced with a larger conductor. The implementation of these countermeasures will reduce the power loss of the llkV distribution lines in question and of the existing 33 kV transmission line. The countermeasure works comprise as follows ' Installation of a new 33/llkV substation (NIZ) around the end of Industrial Zone Feeder 4 • Construction of a new 33kV transmission line between Mandalay Substation and NIZ substation

2-122 • Switching a part of Industrial Zone Feeder 3 and all of Feeder 4 to NIZ substation. • Installation of a new 33/llkV substation (NA) around the end of Industrial Zone Feeder 3 • Construction of a new 33kV transmission line between substation NIZ and a new substation (NA) • Switching a part of Industrial Zone Feeder 3 to substation NA • Size-up of conductor in a end part of Industrial Zone Feeder 4

[Projectl-2] (Figure 2.5-14b) Project 1-2 is a countermeasure for an existing 33kV transmission line (Aungpinlae -Myaukpin) and existing llkV distribution lines of Nandwin, 22nd Street and 26th Street. A new 33/llkV substation, NND will be constructed near the end of the llkV Nandwin distribution line. This new substation, NND can serve the power to the load of Nandwin, 22nd Street and 26th Street distribution lines. A new 33kV transmission line will be constructed from Aungpinlae Substation to near the Myaukpyin Substation and the conductor of a part of the existing 33kV transmission line will be replaced with a larger conductor. The existing 33kV transmission line will be used to supply the power to the new substation, NND while an incoming line to this substation will be newly installed. Moreover, the conductor at end of the llkV Nandwin distribution line will be replaced with a larger conductor. The implementation of these countermeasures will reduce the power loss of the llkV distribution lines in question and of the existing 33 kV transmission line. The countermeasure works comprise as follows • Installation of a new 33/llkV substation , NND around the end of Nandwin line • Construction of a new 33kV transmission line between Aungpinlae Substation and the vicinity of Myaukpyin Substation. • Construction of a new 33kV transmission line of incoming line to NND substation • Size-up of conductor in a part of existing 33kV line • Switching a part of Nandwin, 22nd Street and 26th Street to NND substation. • Size-up of conductor in a end part of Nandwin line

[Projectl-3] (Figure 2.5-14c) Project 1-3 is a countermeasure for an existing 33kV transmission lines (Mandalay - 59th Street) and an existing llkV distribution line of 21 Mile A new 33kV transmission line and a new 33/llkV substation, N21 will be constructed so that the entire load of the llkV 21Mile distribution line can be served from Aungpinlae Substation. Furthermore, capacitors at Aungpinlae Substation are necessary to reduce losses in higher voltage system and to maintain system voltage since much of load is switched by countermeasures. The implementation of these countermeasures will reduce the power loss of the llkV distribution line

2-123 in question, the existing 33kV transmission line and the main system. The countermeasure works comprise as follows • Installation of a new 33/llkV substation, N21 around the end of 21 Mile line • Construction of a new 33kV transmission line between Aungpinlae Substation and N21 substation. • Switching all of 21 Mile to N21 substation.

[Projectl-4] (Figure 2.5-14d) Project 1-4 is a countermeasure for existing llkV distribution lines of Amarapura and Mandalay 1. A new 33/llkV substation, NAR will be constructed near the end of the llkV Amarapura distribution line and a new 33kV transmission line will be constructed from the Mandalay Substation to the new substation, NAR. This new substation, NAR will serve the power to a part load of the llkV Amarapura and Mandalay 1 distribution lines. The implementation of these countermeasures will reduce the distribution loss of the llkV distribution lines in question. The countermeasure works comprise as follows • Installation of a new 33/llkV substation , NAR around the end of Amarapura line • Construction of a new 33kV transmission line between Mandalay Substation and NAR substation. • Switching a part of Amarapura and Mandalay 1 to NAR substation.

[Projectl-5] (Figure 2.5-14e) Project 1-5 is a countermeasure for existing llkV distribution lines of Mandalay 2 and Mandalay 3. A new 33/llkV substation, NM will be constructed near the end of the llkV Mandalay 3 distribution line and a new transmission line will be constructed from the Mandalay Substation to the new substation, NM. This new substation will serve the power to a part load of the llkV Mandalay 2 and Mandalay 3 distribution lines. The implementation of these countermeasures will reduce the distribution loss of the llkV distribution lines in question. The countermeasure works comprise as follows • Installation of a new 33/llkV substation, NM around the end of Mandalay 3 • Construction of a new 33kV transmission line between Mandalay Substation and NM substation. • Switching a part of Mandalay 2 and Mandalay 3 to NM substation.

[Projectl-6] (Figure 2.5-14f) Project 1-6 is a countermeasure for existing llkV distribution lines of 62nd Street and Aungpinlae (2). This countermeasure is also effective for 33kV transmission lines (Mandalay-65th Street).

2-124 A new substation, N65 will be constructed near the end of the llkV 62nd Street distribution line and the existing 33kV transmission line (Mandalay - 65th Street) will be connected to the new substation, N65. The new substation, N65 will serve the power to a part load of the llkV 62nd Street distribution line. This countermeasure will also reduce the power loss of the existing 33kV Mandalay - 65th Street transmission line. A new 33/llkV substation, NAP will be constructed near the halfway point of the llkV Aungpinlae (2) distribution line and a new 33 kV transmission line will be constructed from the Aungpinlae Substation to the new substation, NAP. This new substation, NAP will serve the power to a part load of the llkV Aungpinlae (2) distribution line. The implementation of these measures will reduce the power loss of the llkV distribution lines in question. The countermeasure works comprise as follows • Installation of a new 33/llkV substation, N65 around the end of 62nd Street • Construction of a new 33kV transmission line of incoming to N65 substation with pi connection • Switching a part of 62nd Street to N65 substation. • Installation of a new 33/llkV substation, NAP around the center of Aungpinlae (2) • Construction of a new 33kV transmission line between Aungpinlae Substation and NAP substation • Switching a part of Aungpinlae (2) to NAP substation.

[Projectl-7] (Figure 2.5-14 g) Project 1-7 is a countermeasure for an existing llkV distribution line of Wakingone. A new 33/llkV substation, NW will be constructed near the end of the llkV Wakingone distribution line and a new 33kV transmission line will be constructed from the Aungpinlae Substation to the new substation, NW. The new substation, NW will serve the power to a part load of the llkV Wakingone distribution line. The implementation of these countermeasures will reduce the power loss of the llkV distribution line in question. The countermeasure works comprise as follows • Installation of a new 33/llkV substation , NW around the end of Wakingone line • Construction of a new 33kV transmission line between Aungpinlae Substation and NW substation. • Switching a part of Wakingone to NW substation.

[Projectl-8] (Figure 2.5-14h) Project 1-8 is a countermeasure for existing llkV distribution lines of Patheingyi, MIT, APL-Nanshae and MYP-Nanshae.

2-125 A new 33/llkV substation, NP will be constructed near the end of the llkV Patheingyi distribution line and a new 33kV transmission line will be constructed from the Patheingyi Substation to the new substation, NP. The new substation, NP will serve the power to a part load of the Patheingyi distribution line. Another new 33/llkV substation, NMT will be constructed near the first load point of the llkV MIT distribution line and a new 33kV transmission line will be constructed from the Aungpinlae Substation to the new substation, NMT. The new substation, NMT will serve the power to the entire load of the MIT distribution line and a part load of the APL - Nanshae distribution line. A new 33/llkV substation, NS will be constructed at the central point of the western section [left-hand side in Figure 2.5-14(h)] of the 11 kV APL-Nanshae distribution line and a new 33kV transmission line will be constructed from the Aungpinlae Substation to the new substation, NS. The new substation, NS will serve the power to a part load of the APL - Nanshae and MYP - Nanshae distribution lines. Moreover, the conductor at the end of the llkV APL - Nanshae distribution line will be replaced with a larger conductor. As a loss reduction countermeasure for the eastern section [right-hand side in Figure 2.5-14(h)], a part load of the APL-Nanshae distribution line will be switched to the new substation, NMT and at the existing Patheingyi Substation, it is necessary to install a new transformer. The implementation of these countermeasures will reduce the power loss of the 11 kV distribution lines in question. The countermeasure works comprise as follows • Installation of a new 33/llkV substation, NP around the end of Patheingyi line • Construction of a new 33kV transmission line between Patheingyi Substation and NP substation. • Switching a part of Patheingyi to NP substation • Installation of a new 33/llkV substation, NMT around the fist load of MIT line • Construction of a new 33kV transmission line between Aungpinlae Substation and NMT substation. • Switching all of MIT and a part of APL-Nanshae to NMT substation • Installation of a new 33/llkV substation, NS around the center on the west of APL-Nanshae line • Construction of a new 33kV transmission line between Aungpinlae Substation and NS substation. • Size-up of conductor in a end part of APL-Nanshae line • Switching a part of APL-Nanshae and MYP-Nanshae to NS substation • Switching a part of APL-Nanshae to Patheingyi Substation • Additional installation of a 33/llkV transformer at Pahteingyi Substation

2-126 Table 2.5-33 Breakdown of Construction Cost of Project 1

Project1-1[1000US$3 Item QTY unit unit cost cost 33kV Line MDY-NIZ, 1 cct ACSR400 4.1 km 13.02 53.38 33kV Switchgear for Line at MDY and NIZ 2 set 28.07 56.14 33kV Switchgear for Transformer at NIZ 1 set 28.07 28.07 11 kV Switchgear for Line at NIZ 3 set 16.84 50.52 11 kV Switchgear for Transformer at NIZ 1 set 16.84 16.84 33/11kV Transformer at NIZ 10MVA 1 set 180.00 180.00 11 kV Line outgoing connection NIZ Feeder 1 ACSR400 0.24 km 11.86 2.85 11 kV Line outgoing connection NIZ Feeder 2 ACSR150 0.6 km 5.89 3.53 11 kV Line outgoing connection NIZ Feeder 3 ACSR150 0.36 km 5.89 2.12 33kV Line NIZ-NA, 1cct ACSR150 3.4 km 7.05 23.97 33kV Switchgear at NIZ and NA 2 set 28.07 56.14 11kV Switchgear at NA 1 set 16.84 16.84 33/11kV Transformer at NA 5MVA 1 set 90.00 90.00 11 kV Line outgoing connection NA Feeder 1 ACSR400 0.5 km 11.86 5.93 11 kV Conductor Size-up NIZ Feeder 1 ACSR35 2.05 km 10.19 20.89 ACSR400 Proiect1-1 Total 607.22

Projectl -2 [1000US$] Item QTY unit unit cost cost 33kV Line NS-MYPX2, 1 cct ACSR400 3.7 km 13.02 48.17 33kV Conductor Size-up MYPX2-MYP, 1 cct ACSR150 —» 3.2 km 10.23 32.74 ACSR400 33kV Line MYPX1-NND, 1 cct ACSR150 3 km 7.05 21.15 33kV Switchgear for Line at NS and NND 2 set 28.07 56.14 33kV Switchgear for Transformer at NND 1 set 28.07 28.07 11 kV Switchgear for Line at NND 2 set 16.84 33.68 11 kV Switchgear for Transformer at NND 1 set 16.84 16.84 33/11 kV Transformer at NND 10MVA 1 set 180.00 180.00 11 kV Line outgoing connection NND Feeder 1 ACSR400 0.16 km 11.86 1.90 11 kV Line outgoing connection NND Feeder 2 ACSR400 0.16 km 11.86 1.90 11 kV Line internal connection NND Feeder 2 ACSR200 0.24 km 7.16 1.72 11 kV Line internal connection NND Feeder 2 ACSR400 0.16 km 11.86 1.90 11 kV Conductor Size-up NND Feeder 2 ACSR70 — 1 km 10.19 10.19 ACSR400 Proiect1-2 Total 434.40

Projectl -3 [1000US$] Item QTY unit unit cost cost 33kV Line NAP-N21, 1cct ACSR400 15.2 km 13.02 197.90 33kV Switchgear for Line at NAP and N21 2 set 28.07 56.14 33kV Switchgear for Transformer at N21 1 set 28.07 28.07 11 kV Switchgear for Line at N21 1 set 16.84 16.84 11 kV Switchgear for Transformer at N21 1 set 16.84 16.84 33/11 kV Transformer at N21 7.5MVA 1 set 135.00 135.00 11 kV Line outgoing connection N21 Feeder 1 ACSR400 0.5 km 11.86 5.93 33kV Switchgear at APL for capacitor 2 set 28.07 56.14 33kV Capacitor at APL 10MVA 2 set 200.00 400.00 Projectl -3 Total 912.86

2-143 Table 2.5-33 Breakdown of Construction Cost of Project 1

Projectl-4[1000US$] Item QTY unit unit cost cost 33kV Line MDY-NAR, 1cct ACSR200 5.9 km 8.33 49.15 33kV Switchgear for Line at MDY and NAR 2 set 28.07 56.14 33kV Switchgear for Transformer at NAR 1 set 28.07 28.07 11 kV Switchgear for Line at NAR 2 set 16.84 33.68 11kV Switchgear for Transformer at NAR 1 set 16.84 16.84 33/11kV Transformer at NAR 7.5MVA 1 set 135.00 135.00 11 kV Line outgoing connection NAR Feeder 1 ACSR400 0.5 km 11.86 5.93 11 kV Line outgoing connection NAR Feeder 2 ACSR400 1.2 km 11.86 14.23 Projectl-4 Total 339.04

Projectl -5 [1000US$] Item QTY unit unit cost cost 33kV Line MDY-NM, 1cct ACSR170 5.17 km 7.62 39.40 33kV Switchgear for Line at MDY and NM 2 set 28.07 56.14 33kV Switchgear for Transformer at NM 1 set 28.07 28.07 11 kV Switchgear for Line at NM 1 set 16.84 16.84 11kV Switchgear for Transformer at NM 1 set 16.84 16.84 33/11 kV Transformer at NM 7.5MVA 1 set 135.00 135.00 11 kV Line outgoing connection NM Feeder 1 ACSR70 0.04 km 4.04 1.00 11 kV Line internal connection NM Feeder 1 ACSR35 0.008 km 2.98 1.00 Projectl -5 Total 294.29

Projectl —6 [1000US$] Item QTY unit unit cost cost 33kV Line incomming connection 65THX1-N65, 1cct ACSR150 0.08 km 7.05 1.00 33kV Line outgoing connection N65-65THX2, 1cct ACSR150 0.08 km 7.05 1.00 33kV Switchgear for Line at MDY and N65 2 set 28.07 56.14 33kV Switchgear for Transformer at N65 1 set 28.07 28.07 11 kV Switchgear for Line at N65 1 set 16.84 16.84 11 kV Switchgear for Transformer at N65 1 set 16.84 16.84 33/11 kV Transformer at N65 5MVA 1 set 90.00 90.00 11 kV Line outgoing connection N65 Feeder 1 ACSR400 0.08 km 11.86 1.00 33kV Line APL-NAP, 1cct ACSR400 4.4 km 13.02 57.29 33kV Switchgear for Line at APL and NAP 2 set 28.07 56.14 33kV Switchgear for Transformer at NAP 1 set 28.07 28.07 11 kV Switchgear for Line at NAP 1 set 16.84 16.84 11 kV Switchgear for Transformer at NAP 1 set 16.84 16.84 33/11kV Transformer at NAP 2.5MVA 1 set 45.00 45.00 11 kV Line outgoing connection NAP Feeder 1 ACSR35 0.008 km 2.98 1.00 Projectl -6 Total 432.07

2-144 Table 2.5-33 Breakdown of Construction Cost of Project 1

Projectl-7[1000US$] Item QTY unit unit cost cost 33kV Line APL-NW, 1cct ACSR100 2.2 km 5.91 13.00 33kV Switchgear for Line at APL and NW 2 set 28.07 56.14 33kV Switchgear for Transformer at NW 1 set 28.07 28.07 11 kV Switchgear for Line at NW 1 set 16.84 16.84 11 kV Switchgear for Transformer at NW 1 set 16.84 16.84 33/11kV Transformer at NW 5MVA 1 set 90.00 90.00 11 kV Line outgoing connection NW Feeder 1 ACSR50 0.15 km 3.47 1.00 Proiect1-7 Total 221.89

Projectl-8 [1000US$] Item QTY unit unit cost cost 33kV Line PTG-NP, 1cct ACSR70 4 km 5.21 20.84 33kV Switchgear for Line at PTC and NP 2 set 28.07 56.14 33kV Switchgear for Transformer at NP 1 set 28.07 28.07 11 kV Switchgear for Line at NP 1 set 16.84 16.84 11 kV Switchgear for Transformer at NP 1 set 16.84 16.84 33/11 kV Transformer at NP 2.5MVA 1 set 45.00 45.00 11 kV Line outgoing connection NP Feeder 1 ACSR305 0.063 km 9.58 1.00 33kV Line APL-NMT, 1cct ACSR150 7.3 km 7.05 51.47 33kV Switchgear for Line at APL and NMT 2 set 28.07 56.14 33kV Switchgear for Transformer at NMT 1 set 28.07 28.07 11 kV Switchgear for Line at NMT 2 set 16.84 33.68 11 kV Switchgear for Transformer at NMT 1 set 16.84 16.84 33/11 kV Transformer at NMT 5MVA 1 set 90.00 90.00 11 kV Line outgoing connection NMT Feeder 1 ACSR305 0.2 km 9.58 1.92 11 kV Line outgoing connection NMT Feeder 2 ACSR35 0.2 km 2.98 1.00 33kV Switchgear for Transformer at PTC 1 set 28.07 28.07 11 kV Switchgear for Line at PTC 1 set 16.84 16.84 11kV Switchgear for Transformer at PTC 1 set 16.84 16.84 33/11 kV Transformer at PTC 2.5MVA 1 set 45.00 45.00 11 kV Line outgoing connection at PTC Feeder2 ACSR400 0.2 km 11.86 2.37 33kV Line APL-NS, 1cct ACSR400 5.05 km 13.02 65.75 33kV Switchgear for Line at APL and NS 2 set 28.07 56.14 33kV Switchgear for Transformer at NS 1 set 28.07 28.07 11 kV Switchgear for Line at NS 2 set 16.84 33.68 11 kV Switchgear for Transformer at NS 1 set 16.84 16.84 33/11 kV Transformer at NS 7.5MVA 1 set 135.00 135.00 11 kV Line outgoing connection NS Feeder 1 ACSR400 0.16 km 11.86 1.90 11 kV Line outgoing connection NS Feeder 2 ACSR200 0.93 km 7.16 6.66 11 kV Conductor Size-up NS Feeder 1 ACSR50—* 0.77 km 10.19 7.85 ACSR400 Projectl-8 Total 924.86

hooous$l Grand 4166.63 Total

2-145 2.52.1.2 Loss Reduction Scheme for LV System

There are 112 of low voltage 11/0.4kV Transformers in the two townships (Chan Aye Tha Zan and Maha Aung Myay) in Mandalay District Calculations found 101 of countermeasure works to be feasible (i.e. found the net benefit to be zero or more). , As for countermeasures, 400kV lines shall be divided at an optimal point where maximum net benefit can be obtained, and ll/0.4kV transformers shall be newly installed to supply power to the separated lines. These countermeasures will make it possible to reduce transmission loss by 3,936kW at peak load, and the project cost will be 2,453 in thousand US$. These works are named as Project 2. Individual works drawings are omitted because of their large number.

Table 2.5-34 Outline, Construction Cost, Peak Load Reduction of Project 2

Peak Load Construction Cost outline QTY Reduction [1000US$] fkWl

Installation of ll/0.4kV 101 set 2,453 3,936 transformers

2.5.2.S Transmission Loss Reduction after Countermeasures

Using the in-house software of PFLOW, loss reduction in the case where countermeasures are implemented was calculated in detail.

2.5.2.8.1 Transmission Loss at Peak Load in HV and MV Systems after Countermeasures

Calculation results for the 2003-2004 section after countermeasures excluding losses in 400V systems are indicated in Table 2.5-35. Transmission power loss in the seven townships of Mandalay District is 5,975kW at peak time, and the loss reduction is 8,647kW. The transmission loss ratio at this time will be 5.37%, indicating an improvement of 6.85 points. Power loss in the llkV distribution lines will be l,630kW, and the loss reduction is 6,912kW, indicating an improvement in loss ratio of 6.11 points. As for the 33kV transmission lines, loss will be l,631kW, and the loss reduction is l,134kW, indicating an improvement in loss ratio of 1.38 points. Furthermore, the loss in adjoining higher 132kV transmission lines will be 5,180 kW, and the loss reduction is 2,323kW, indicating an improvement in loss ratio of 1.44 points.

2-146 Therefore, the power loss including the 132kV system will be 11,155 kW and the loss reduction will be 10,970kW, indicating an improvement in loss ratio of 7.79 points. See Appendix-4 for detailed calculation results in the 132kV-33kV systems and Appendix-5 for integrated calculation results in each 11 kV system.

Table 2.5-35 Loss Calculation Results with Projects excluding 400V Line Loss in 2003-2004 Incoming Outgoing Loss Rate ALoss A Rate kW kW kW % kW 132kV Line a 116,401 111,221 5,180 4.45% -2,323 -1.44

132kV/33, llkVTr b 111,221 110,708 513 0.46% -187 -0.12 33kV Line c 103,502 101,871 1,631 1.58% -1,134 -1.38 33/llkV Tr d 101,871 101,177 694 0.68% -296 -0.41 e=b+c subtotal 111,221 108,383 2,838 2.55% -1,617 -1.17 +d llkV Line f 104,351 102,721 1,630 1.56% -6,912 -6.11

11/0.4kV Tr g 102,721 101,214 1,507 1.47% -118 -0.11 subtotal h=f+g 104,351 101,214 3,137 3.01% -7,030 -6.12 Mandalay District MV System I=e+h 111,221 105,246 5,975 5.37% -8,647 -6.83

MV System + 132kV Line j=a+I 116,401 105,246 11,155 9.58% -10,970 -7.79

2.5.2.S.2 Transmission Loss at Peak Load in LV Systems after Countermeasures

The results of calculating power loss in low voltage 400V systems in the two townships (Chan Aye Tha Zan and Maha Aung Myay) in Mandalay District are indicated in Table 2.5-36. Power loss at peak load in the two townships falls by l,976kW from 5,912kW, indicating an reduction of 3,936kW, and the loss ratio falls by 6.3% from 18.86%, indicating an improvement of 12.56 points. See Appendix-6 for the 400V line integrated calculation results following countermeasures.

Table 2.5-36 400V Line Loss Calculation Results with Projects of 2 Townships in 2003-2004 Incoming Outgoing Loss Rate kW kW kW % without 400V Line in 2 Townships A 31,355 25,443 5,912 18.86% Project with 400V Line in 2 Townships B 31,355 29,379 1,976 6.30% Project

B-A -3,936 -12.56

2-147 2.5.2.83 Estimation of Transmission Loss at Peak Load Including LV Systems after Countermeasures

As for the transmission loss in 400V systems before countermeasures, it was assumed that the same loss rate exists in the remaining 5 townships since calculation was only performed for the above two townships. Calculation results for the whole of Mandalay District including the 132kV system are indicated in Table 2.5-37. Transmission loss in the whole of Mandalay District will fall from 33,711kW to 21,128kW, indicating a reduction of 12,583kW. The loss ratio at this time will fall from 28.12% to 19%, indicating an improvement of 9.12 points. When the 132kV system is also included, transmission loss falls from 41,214kW to 26,308kW, indicating a reduction of 14,906kW. The loss ratio at this time will fall from 32.36% to 22.6%, indicating an improvement of 9.76 points.

Table 2.5-37 Loss Estimation with Projects including 400kV Line Loss at Peak Time Incoming Outgoing Loss Rate kW kW kW % without Mandalay District MV A 119,868 105,246 14,622 12.20% Project 400V Line in 7 Townships B 101,214 82,125 19,089 18.86% MV+400V Line C=A+B 119,868 86,157 33,711 28.12% with Mandalay District MV D 111,221 105,246 5,975 5.37% Project 400V Line in 7 Townships E 101,214 86,061 15,153 14.97% MV+400V Line F=D+E 111,221 90,093 21,128 19.00%

F-C -12,583 -9.12

Incoming Outgoing Loss Rate kW kW kW % without Mandalay District MV + 132kV Line A 127,371 105,246 22,125 17.37% Project 400V Line in 7 Townships B 101,214 82,125 19,089 18.86% MV+400V+132kV Line C=A+B 127,371 86,157 41,214 3236% with Mandalay District MV + 132kV Line D 116,401 105,246 11,155 9.58% Project 400V Line in 7 Townships E 101,214 86,061 15,153 14.97% MV+400V+132kV Line F=D+E 116,401 90,093 26,308 22.60%

F-C -14,906 -9.76

2-148 2.5.2.8A Annual Energy Loss in HV and MV Systems after Countermeasures

Calculation Results of annual energy loss for the 2003-2004 section after countermeasures excluding losses in 400V systems are indicated in Table 2.5-38. Annual energy loss in the seven townships of Mandalay District is 22,428MWh at peak time, indicating a reduction of 32,459MWh. The transmission loss ratio at this time will be 3.51%, indicating an improvement of 4.66 points. Energy loss in the llkV distribution lines will be 6,118MWh, and the energy reduction is 25,946MWh, indicating an improvement in loss ratio of 4.06 points. As for 33kV transmission lines, energy loss is 6,122MWh, and the energy reduction is 4,257MWh, indicating an improvement in loss ratio of 0.95 points. Furthermore, the energy loss in adjoining higher 132kV transmission lines will be 19,444MWh, and an energy reduction is 8,720MWh, indicating an improvement in loss ratio of 1.07 points. Therefore, the energy loss including the 132kV system will be 41,872MWh and the loss reduction will be 41,179MWh, indicating an improvement of 5.51 points.

Table 2.5-38 Annual Energy Loss with Projects excluding 400V Line Loss in 2003-2004 Incoming Outgoing Loss Rate ALoss A Rate MWh MWh MWh % MWh

132kV Line a 659,054 639,610 19,444 2.95% -8,720 -1.07

132kV/33, llkV b 639,610 637,684 1,926 0.30% -702 -0.09 Tr

33kV Line c 595,932 589,810 6,122 1.03% -4,257 -0.95

33/llkV Tr d 589,810 587,205 2,605 0.44% -1,111 -0.28 subtotal e=b+c+d 639,610 587,205 10,653 1.67% -6,070 -0.82 llkV Line f 605,997 599,879 6,118 1.01% -25,946 -4.06 ll/0.4kV Tr g 599,879 594,222 5,657 0.94% -443 -0.08 subtotal h=f+g 605,997 594,222 11,775 1.94% -26,389 -4.09

Mandalay District I=e+h 639,610 617,182 22,428 3.51% -32,459 -4.66 MV System MV System j=a+I 659,054 617,182 41,872 6.35% -41,179 -5.51 + 132kV Line

2-149 2.5.2.8.5 Annual Energy Loss in LV Systems after Countermeasures

The results of calculating annual energy loss in low voltage 400 V systems in the two townships (Chan Aye Tha Zan and Maha Aung Myay) in Mandalay District are indicated in Table 2.5-39. Annual energy loss at peak load in the two townships falls from 22,191 MWh to 7,417 MWh, indicating an energy reduction of 14,774 MWh, and the loss ratio falls from 12.05% to 4.03%, indicating an improvement of 8.02 points.

Table 2.5-39 Annual Energy Loss of 400V Line with Project of 2 Townships in 2003-2004 Incoming Outgoing Loss Rate MWh MWh MWh %

without 400V Line in 2 Townships A 184,084 161,893 22,191 12.05% Project

with 400V Line in 2 Townships B 184,084 176,667 7,417 4.03% Project

B-A -14,774 -8.02

2.5.2.8.6 Estimation of Annual Energy Loss Including LV Systems

As for the energy loss in 400V systems before countermeasures, it was assumed that the same loss rate exists in the remaining 5 townships since calculation was only performed for the above two townships. Calculation results for the whole of Mandalay District including the 132kV system are indicated in Table 2.5-40. Annual energy loss in the whole of Mandalay District will fall from 126,540MWh to 79,307MWh, indicating an energy reduction of 47,233MWh. The loss ratio at this time will fall from 18.83% to 12.4%, indicating an improvement of 6.43 points. When the 132kV system is also included, transmission loss falls from 154,704MWh to 98,751MWh, indicating an energy reduction of 55,953MWh. The loss ratio at this time will fall from 22.09% to 14.98%, indicating an improvement of 7.11 points.

2-150 Table 2.5-40 Annual Energy Loss Estimation with Projects including 400kV Line Loss Incoming Outgoing Loss Rate MWh MWh MWh % without Mandalay District MV A 672,068 617,181 54,887 8.17% Project 400V Line in 7 Townships B 594,222 522,569 71,653 12.06% MV+400V Line C=A+B 672,068 545,528 126,540 18.83% with Mandalay District MV D 639,610 617,182 22,428 3.51% Project 400V Line in 7 Townships E 594,222 537,343 56,879 9.57% MV+400V Line F=D+E 639,610 560,303 79,307 12.40%

F-C -47,233 -6.43

Incoming Outgoing Loss Rate MWh MWh MWh % without Mandalay District MV + 132kV Line A 700,232 617,181 83,051 11.86% Project 400V Line in 7 Townships B 594,222 522,569 71,653 12.06% MV+400V+132kV Line C=A+B 700,232 545,528 154,704 22.09% with Mandalay District MV + 132kV Line D 659,054 617,182 41,872 6.35% Project 400V Line in 7 Townships E 594,222 537,343 56,879 9.57% MV+400V+132kV Line F=D+E 659,054 560,303 98,751 14.98%

F-C -55,953 -7.11

2.S.2.9 Summary of Loss Reduction Scheme in Transmission and Distribution

The improvement schemes described so far can be summarized as follows

Table 2.5-41 Summary of Loss Reduction Project Annual Construction Peak Reduction Ratio Reduction Cost a b c c/a TkWl IMWhl riooous$i rus$/kwi Projectl 10,970 41,179 4,167 380 Project2 3,936 14,774 2,453 623 Total 14,906 55,953 6,620 444

If Project 1 and Project 2 are implemented simultaneously, the peak load reduction and annual energy loss reduction will be 14,906kW and 55,953MWh respectively in 2003-2004. The total project cost will be roughly estimated 6,620 in thousand US$ and the kW unit cost of the

2-151 Project will be only US$444. If the Project is regarded as a power source development project, the unit cost is nearly equivalent to that in a large-scale thermal power plant with a low construction cost, and the Project effect can be viewed as the ultimate power resource which doesn ’t even require fuel. In other words, although the Project cost is similar to the construction cost of a large-scale thermal power station, the Project effect is equivalent to that obtained from the construction of a medium-scale hydropower station which would entail a very high construction cost.

[Supplement] The following figure shows the construction cost of hydropower projects in Myanmar from 1973 to 1999. According to this, the unit construction cost of a 15,000kW-class hydropower plant is roughly founded around US$5,000 per kW.

Hydropower Construction Cost per kW

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000 S *

10,000 w w ♦ * #0 5,000 ; • .♦ • MR* * ______i ______>...... <...... ■...... * ...... -j

10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 Capacity [kW]

Figure 2.5-15 Construction Cost of Hydropower in Myanmar

2.5.3 Targeted GHG of the Project

The targeted GHG of the Project is CG2 which is contained in the exhaust gas discharged from

2-152 thermal power stations

2.6 Outline of MEPE

See Section 2.2 of Chapter 2

2.6.1 Interest of MEPE

See Section 2.2.1 of Chapter 2see

2.6.2 Situation of Related Facilities (Outline, Specification, Operation)

The voltage composition of distribution systems in Mandalay District is 33kV, llkV and 400V, and the voltage is converted from 132kV to 33kV or llkV at Mandalay and Aungpinlae substations. In the city, there are ten 33/llkV substations where voltage is converted to llkV. The power is distributed to general consumers after being stepped down by 11/0.4kV transformers on poles located throughout the city. As for the conductor of power lines, aluminum conductor steel-reinforced, ACSR, is used for 33kV and llkV systems, hard-drawn bare copper, HDBC, is used for 400V system. Last year, load shedding is executed due to a shortage of power by an insufficient of rainfalls. The loss rate of Mandalay Division is 5 points higher than that of the nationwide average.

2.6.3 Ability to Carry Out Project

2.6.3.1 Technical Ability

Since MEPE by itself has conducted implementation of transmission projects at 33kV and below, there is not any problem at all for the Project, and MEPE has a higher ability to carry out the Project

2.6.3.2 Management System

See 2.2.3.2

2-153 2.6.33 Management Foundation and Policy

See 2.23.3

2.63.4 Financial Performance

See 2.23.4

2.63.5 Manpower Capacity

See 2.23.5

2.63.6 Implementation Organization

See 2.23.6

2.6.4 Specification of Facilities in Project

The outline of loss reduction Projects in transmission and distribution systems is listed in Table 2.6-1 and Table 2.6-2. Each detailed specification are shown in and Appendix 6.

Table 2.6-1 Outline of Project 1 Construction Cost (Roughly outline QTY Estimated) nooous$i 33kV Transmission Line Total 63.58 ckt-km 643.47 33kV Conductor Size-up Total 3.2 ckt-km 32.74 llkV Distribution Line Total 6.659 ckt-km 67.79 llkV Conductor Size-up Total 3.82 ckt-km 38.93 33/llkV Transformer Total 13 set 1395.00 33kV Switchgear Total 38 set 1066.66 llkV Swichgear Total 31 set 522.04 Capacitor Total 2 set 400.00 33/llkV Transformer Capacity Total 77.5 MVA Capacitor Capacity Total 20 MVA Total Cost 4,166.63

ckt-km : circuit kilometer

2-154 Table 2.6-2 Outline of Project 2 Construction Cost Outline QTY [1000US$1 11/0.4kV Transformer 101 set 2,453

2.6.5 Scope of Provision for Implementation (Finance, Procurement, Services, and so forth)

In planning the implementation of the Project, the study on undertaking between Japanese and Myanmar sides was necessary in regard to the provision of funds, products, services and technology, etc. and the following conclusions have been reached. In regard to funding, if the objective of the Project is a reduction of the green house gas (hereinafter referred to as GHG) emission, the financing scheme will be determined by whether Japan or Myanmar leads the Project. As the Project indeed aims at reducing GHG emission, making it appropriate for Japan to provide a special environmental yen loan or a similar financing scheme designed to achieve this objective, the Japanese side will provide the necessary funds. Given Japanese funding, the bilateral tied scheme will be adopted for the consultancy work for products and technology, etc.

(1) Funding The Japanese side will provide a yen loan (OECF or others). Because of the involvement of the trade of GHG emission rights in the Project, it is recommendable that the environmental yen loan scheme shall be used. Myanmar side will prepare to pay the local currency portion of the construction cost which can not be covered by the yen loan.

(2) Products The main facilities and equipment (cables, transformers and circuit breakers, etc.) will be provided by Japan. Myanmar will provide the materials for the civil engineering work and auxiliary equipment and accessories.

(3) Technology TEPSCO (Japanese side) and the counterpart in Myanmar will jointly conduct the design and engineering. The transportation of equipment and related work will be coordinated between the two sides. Myanmar side will mainly conduct the construction work, equipment installation, test operation and related work. TEPSCO and an equipment supplier will be responsible for their supervision and arrangement.

2-155 (4) Others TEPSCO will be responsible for the overall control of the Project and coordinating work in Japan, Myanmar and others. Myanmar side will be responsible for coordination with the government ministries involved, strengthening of the project implementation system and the completion of work- related procedures, etc.

2.6.6 Preconditions and Problems for Project Implementation

If there is any change regarding the constants, system configuration, load data and demand forecast used for calculations for the transmission loss reduction project, recalculation will have to be conducted to modify the relevant project contents prior to the implementation of the Project. Of course, regarding the locations of the new substations as well as the transmission/distribution routes, a field survey will have to be conducted to identify possible problems for their construction work so that their exact locations can be determined.

2.6.7 Project Schedule

As shown in Table 2.6-3, it is assumed that the construction work is completed by the year 2002-2003 and the effect for the Project is gained from 2003-2004 onward.

Table 2.6-3 Loss Reduction Project Schedule 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004

Coordination of Finance

Detailed Design

Procurement

Construction

2-156 2.7 Materialization of Financial Procurement

2.7.1 Project Budget

The project budget must take the indirect cost as well as the direct construction cost estimated in 2.S.2.7 into consideration. To estimate the indirect cost, management/miscellaneous expenses and the design/engineering cost are assumed to be 5% each of the direct construction cost and an extraordinary cost of a further 5% of the direct construction cost is added to deal with unexpected expenditure. The resulting indirect cost is 15% of the direct construction cost or US$933 thousand, making a total project budget of US$7,613 thousand.

Table 2.7-1 Project Budget Direct Construction Cost 6,620 Project 1 4,167 Project 2 2,453 Indirect Cost 993 Management/Miscellaneous 331 Design/Engineering 331 Contingency 331 Total 7,613 thousand US$

2.7.2 Fund Raising Plan and Prospects for Project Implementation

See 2.3.2

2.8 Conditions of CDM (Clean Development Mechanism)

2.8.1 Conditions and Preparations for Implementation Project

See 2.4.1

2.8.2 Possibility of Agreement for CDM

See 2.4.2.

2-157 CHAPTER 3

EFFECT OF THE PROJECT Chapter 3 EFFECT OF THE PROJECT

This chapter mentions the energy conservation effect and GHG reduction effect which is gained by this project execution, and for the computation a greenhouse gas monitoring methods of project execution before and after.

< Thermal Power Station Improvement >

3.1 Energy Conservation

3.1.1 Technical Basis for Energy Conservation Effect

By execution this project, thermal efficiency improves drastically and energy consumption can be reduction. In other words, some existing simple gas turbine is made to improvement to the high efficiency combined cycle station by combining HRSG and steam turbine, by improvement of thermal efficiency, heat consumption (energy consumption) is reduced.

3.1.2 Baseline of Energy Conservation Effect

3.1.2.1 Calculation of the Energy Conservation Effect

The quantity of energy conservation can be sought by taking the annual generated power and thermal efficiency, etc. and multiplying them by a factor. Large quantities of energy consumption will be consumed due to low power generation efficiency in the case where the Project is not implemented, however, following implementation, energy consumption will be greatly reduced as a result of the improvement in efficiency, etc.

[Expression for computing the energy conservation effect]

Baseline energy (from the existing power generation facilities) and post-Projeet energy (combined cycle generation facilities following improvement to efficiency) shall be calculated, and the energy conservation effect shall be obtained by subtracting the latter from the former.

1) Annual generated power energy Multiply the plant generating capacity by the annual utilization factor; then multiply the result by the annual operating time of 8,760 hours. Annual generated power energy = Generation capacity (MW) x 1000 x Annual utilization factor (%) x 8760 (h)

3-1 2) Annual equivalent heat supply (TJ) Calculate the amount of power energy assuming the following: 1 kWh = 860 kcal, 1 kcal = 4.1868 kJ. Annual equivalent heat supply = Annual generated power energy x 860 x 4.1868 + 1069 * *

3) Thermal efficiency of generation facilities (%) Thermal efficiency at the existing power plants shall be based on data collected in the field surveys. As for thermal efficiency following Project implementation, this shall be based on actual performance at similar plants (see Table 2.2-18).

4) Annual heat consumption (TJ) Annual heat consumption is obtained from the above thermal efficiency. Annual heat consumption = Annual equivalent heat supply f Plant thermal efficiency x 100

5) Annual energy consumption (toe) Annual energy consumption is obtained from the following by the conversion factor. Annual energy consumption = Annual heat consumption * conversion factor *1 *1: lk toe = 41.868 TJ

6) Annual energy conservation effect (toe/yr.) Annual energy conservation effect = Current Annual energy consumption - Annual energy consumption (after)

3.1.2.2 Baseline for the Energy Conservation Effect

The current total output (at 45°C) of Shwedaung and Mann thermal power stations is 48.6 MW and 35.0 MW respectively, but this will rise to 84.9 MW respectively following implementation of the Project Accordingly, with respect to the baseline, assuming that the future increase in output is handled by the existing turbines (through increasing utilization factor and load factor), energy consumption based on the annual generated power from the existing facilities in this case shall be assumed as the baseline.

3-2 3.13 Results on Energy Conservation Effect

Energy conservation shall be calculated based on the foregoing expression. Calculation criteria are as follows: • Annual utilization factor shall be 80% (actual figure in 1998 was about 65%) • Present performance of each power plant is as indicated in Table 2.2-4 and Table 2.2-13. • Performance following Project implementation shall be as indicated in Table 2.2-18.

3.1.3.1 Energy Consumption at the Baseline

Energy consumption at the baseline are as indicated in Table 3.1-1.

Table 3.1-1 Energy Consumption at the Baseline Shwec aung Simp leG/T Mann Simple G/T Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 3 Unitl Unit 2 Generation capacity (MW) 18.7 13.4 16.5 17.0 18.0 Fuel Gas Diesel Diesel Gas Gas Annual generated power energy 131 93.9 115.6 119.1 126.1 (GWh) Annual equivalent heat supply 471.7 338.1 416.2 428.8 454

3.1.3.2 Energy Consumption Following Project Implementation

Energy consumption following Project implementation are indicated in Table 3.1-2.

Table 3.1-2 Energy Consumption at the Project implementation Shwedaung Mann 3-3-1 C/C 3-3-1 C/C Generation capacity (MW) 84.9 84.9 Gas *2 Gas *2 Fuel Diesel*! Diesel*! Annual generated power energy 595 595 (GWh) Annual equivalent heat supply (TJ) 2142.4 2142.4 Thermal efficiency (%) 39.8 39.8

3-3 Annual heat consumption (TJ) 5382.9 5382.9 Annual energy consumption (k toe) 129 129 Project energy (k toe) 129 129

3.1.3.3 Reduction in Energy Consumption and Period of Generation

Upon seeking the reduction in energy consumption achieved after Project implementation from the above data, the results are as shown in Table 3.1-3. Concerning the period of the Project effect, this shall be set at 25 years in line with the service life of the power generation facilities. Thus the accumulated reduction effects for both plants over 25 years are as indicated in Table 3.1-3. Incidentally, it shall be assumed that there is no change in the operating patterns and the greenhouse gases emission performance of power generation facilities (including existing facilities).

Table 3.1-3 Reduction in Energy Consumption Before and After Project Implementation (ktoe) Shwedaung Mann 3-3-1 C/C 3-3-1 C/C Annual energy at the baseline 234 216 Annual energy following Project 129 129 implementation Annual reduction before and after 105 87 implementation Accumulated reduction over 25 years 2625 2175

3.1.4 Verification Method of Energy Conservation Effect (Monitoring Method)

One method of grasping the amount of energy consumption before and after Project implementation is to carry out theoretical calculation based on the annual generated power energy, and the amount and composition, etc. of fuel used in generation. The items and methodology used in this calculation are described here.

3.1.4.1 Agency in Charge of Monitoring

Concerning data measurement and other monitoring required to calculate the quantity of energy consumption before and after Project implementation, operation and maintenance personnel at Shwedaung and Mann thermal power stations shall take responsibility. Concerning the content of fuel gas, it will be necessary to obtain data from the fuel supply company. Concerning the role of MEPE, it will need to grasp quantities of energy consumption throughout all Myanmar by carrying out data collection and management at all power stations.

3-4 3.1.4.2 Data Items Scheduled for Monitoring

Actual measurements will be carried out using computers, while analysis and management will be performed at Shwedaung and Mann thermal power stations. Monitoring data shall be as follows: - Power station meteorological data (air temperature, humidity, air pressure) - Fuel composition data, calorific quantity (by natural gas and fuel oil) - Fuel consumption of each generation facility - Monthly and annual operating conditions of generating facilities

3.1.4.3 Methods of Data Collection

Data collection for computer analysis and control is implemented by the DCS (distributed control system), which is the management and control system for power generation. This system enables management, recording and printing of power generation data; moreover, data can be collected and processed in any way. Consequently, it is possible to simply calculate the quantity of greenhouse gas emissions from the above data.

3.1.4.4 Monitoring Interval

Data shall be recorded hourly and daily by environmental management computer, while analysis and management shall be performed automatically by programming.

3.2 GHG Reduction Effect

3.2.1 Technical Basis for GHG Reduction Effect

In order to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, especially C02, in thermal power stations, the following methods can be considered: • Reduce fuel consumption through improving thermal efficiency of plants; and • Reduce greenhouse gas emissions by using fuels with a low carbon content

Since the types of fuel are limited in the case of the Project, the latter alternative is not feasible; thus, the former alternative of reducing C02 emissions through improving thermal efficiency shall be adopted. Specifically speaking, the plan is to greatly improve overall plant thermal efficiency and reduce CQ2 emissions through taking the existing individually operated gas turbines and reforming them into multi-shaft combined cycle generation facilities.

3-5 322 Baseline of the GHG Reduction Effect

3.2.2.1 Calculation of the Greenhouse Gases Reduction Effect The quantity of greenhouse gas emissions can be sought by taking the annual generated power and thermal efficiency, etc. and multiplying them by a factor. Large quantities of greenhouse gases will be emitted due to low power generation efficiency in the case where the Project is not implemented, however, following implementation, emissions will be greatly reduced as a result of the improvement in efficiency, etc.

[Expression for computing the greenhouse gases reduction effect] The amount of greenhouse gases emissions is sought by using the following expressions and procedures in accordance with the IPCC Guideline (IPCC Guideline for National Greathouse Gas Inventories Reference Manual/basic calculation given in 1.4.1 Approaches for Estimating C02 Emission). Baseline anissions (from the existing power generation facilities) and post-Project emissions (combined cycle generation facilities following improvement to efficiency) shall be calculated, and the greenhouse gases reduction effect shall be obtained by subtracting the latter from the forma.

1) Annual generated power energy - 4) Annual heat consumption (TJ) : see 3.1.2.1 clause

5) Carbon consumption (tC/TJ) Carbon consumption is calculated as follows according to the IPCC Guideline. Annual carbon consumption = Annual heat consumption x Carbon content *1 *1 is from the IPCC Guideline Table 1-4 as follows: N. Gas CEF = 15.3 tC/TJ, D. Oil CEF = 20.2 tC/TJ

6) Correction factor for incompletely combusted carbon The correction factor for incompletely combusted carbon is calculated as follows according to the IPCC Guideline Table 1-6. N. Gas = 0.995, D. Oil = 0.99

7) Annual carbon dioxide emissions (ton-C02) Annual carbon dioxide emissions = Carbon consumption x Correction factor for incompletely combusted carbon x 44/12 (converted to C02 units)

3-6 8) Reduction in annual carbon dioxide emissions (ton-C02) Reduction in annual carbon dioxide emissions = Current annual carbon dioxide emissions - Annual carbon dioxide emissions

3.2.2.2 Baseline for the Greathouse Gas Reduction Effect

The current total output (at 45°C) of Shwedaung and Mann thermal power stations is 48.6 MW and 35.0 MW respectively, but this will rise to 84.9 MW respectively following implementation of the Project Accordingly, with respect to the baseline, assuming that the future increase in output is handled by the existing turbines (through increasing utilization factor and load factor), emissions of greenhouse gases based on the annual generated power from the existing facilities in this case shall be assumed as the baseline.

323 Results on GHG Reduction Effect

Emissions of greenhouse gases shall be calculated based on the foregoing expression. Calculation criteria are as follows: • Annual utilization factor shall be 80% (actual figure in 1998 was about 65%) • Present performance of each power plant is as indicated in Table 2.2-4 and Table 2.2-13. • Performance following Project implementation shall be as indicated in Table 2.2-18.

3.2.3.1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions at the Baseline

Greenhouse gas emissions at the baseline are as indicated in Table 3.2-1.

Table 3.2-1 Greenhouse Gas Emissions at the Baseline Shwec laung Simp leG/T Mann Simple G/T Unit 1 Unit 2 Unit 3 Unitl Unit 2 Generation capacity (MW) 18.7 13.4 16.5 17.0 18.0 Fuel Gas Diesel Diesel Gas Gas Annual generated power energy 131 93.9 115.6 119.1 126.1 (GWh) Annual equivalent heat supply 471.7 338.1 416.2 428.8 454 (TJ) Thermal efficiency (%) 22.9 20.2 22.2 23.9 23.4 Annual heat consumption (TJ) 2059.8 1673.8 1874.8 1794.1 1940.2 Annual carbon consumption 31514.9 33810.8 37871 27449.7 29685.1 (tCZTJ) Annual C02 emissions (kt-CG2) 115 122.7 137.5 100.1 108.3

3-7 Power plant total emissions (kt- 375 208 C02) Baseline emissions (kt-C02) 655 505 Note: Baseline emissions are calculated through comparing total power energy before and after Project implementation

3.23.2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Following Project Implementation

Emissions of greenhouse gases following Project implementation are indicated in Table 3.2-2.

Table 3.2-2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions at the Project implementation Shwedaung Mann 3-3-1 C/C 3-3-1 C/C Generation capacity (MW) 84.9 84.9 Gas*2 Gas*2 Fuel Diesel*! Diesel*! Annual generated power energy 595 595 (GWh) Annual equivalent heat supply (TJ) 2142.4 2142.4 Thermal efficiency (%) 39.8 39.8 Annual heat consumption (TJ) 5382.9 5382.9 Annual carbon consumption 91150.4 91150.4 (tCTTJ) Annual CG2 emissions (kt-C02) 332 332 Project emissions (kt-CG2) 332 332

3.2.33 Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Period of Generation

Upon seeking the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions achieved after Project implementation from the above data, the results are as shown in Table 3.2-3. Concerning the period of the Project effect, this shall be set at 25 years in line with the service life of the power generation facilities. Thus the accumulated reduction effects for both plants over 25 years are as indicated in Table 3.2-3. Incidentally, it shall be assumed that there is no change in the operating patterns and the greenhouse gases emission performance of power generation facilities (including existing facilities).

Table 3.2-3 Reduction in Greenhouse Gases Emissions Before and After Project Implementation (kt-C02) Shwedaung Mann 3-3-1 C/C 3-3-1 C/C Annual emissions at the baseline 655 505 Annual emissions following Project 332 332 implementation

3-8 Annual reduction before and after 323 173 implementation Accumulated reduction over 25 years 8075 4325

3.2.4 Verification Method of GHG Emission Effect (Monitoring Method)

One method of grasping the amount of greenhouse gases emissions before and after Project implementation is to carry out theoretical calculation based on the annual generated power energy, and the amount and composition, etc. of fuel used in generation. Since no device has yet been developed to directly measure carbon dioxide, the above theoretical expression shall be used to grasp the quantity of greenhouse gases emissions. The items and methodology used in this calculation are described here.

(1) Agency in Charge of Monitoring Concerning data measurement and other monitoring required to calculate the quantity of greenhouse gas emissions before and after Project implementation, the composition of other emitted gases which have an effect on the environment, and so on, operation and maintenance personnel at Shwedaung and Mann thermal power stations shall take responsibility. Concerning the content of fuel gas, it will be necessary to obtain data from the fuel supply company. Concerning the role of MEPE, it will need to grasp quantities of greenhouse gases emissions throughout all Myanmar by carrying out data collection and management at all power stations. Moreover, in the event where C02 trading is carried out in future, based on contracts for C02 reduction at companies or third parties, countermeasures such as approving sampling results upon carrying out confirmation and inspection will be required.

(2) Data Items Scheduled for Monitoring Actual measurements will be carried out using computers, while analysis and management will be performed at Shwedaung and Mann thermal power stations. Monitoring data shall be as follows: - Power station meteorological data (air temperature, humidity, air pressure) - Fuel composition data, calorific quantity (by natural gas and fuel oil) - Fuel consumption of each generation facility - Monthly and annual operating conditions of generating facilities

(3) Methods of Data Collection Data collection for computer analysis and control is implemented by the DCS (distributed control system), which is the management and control system for power generation. This system enables

3-9 management, recording and printing of power generation data; moreover, data can be collected and processed in any way. Consequently, it is possible to simply calculate the quantity of greenhouse gas emissions from the above data.

(4) Monitoring Interval Data shall be recorded hourly and daily by environmental management computer, while analysis and management shall be performed automatically by programming.

33 Impact on Productivity

Concerning the impact of Project implementation on productivity and environment, in addition to the immediate Project district, it is thought that an impact will be had throughout all Myanmar.

[Case of Viewing from the Power Grid and Fuel Consumption] The Project power stations are linked to other regions by the national grid system, however, judging from grid flows, the system is such that Shwedaung and Mann thermal power stations supply almost all their energy to nearby users. However, since output and efficiency at the plants will improve after Project implementation, they will come to supply electricity in place of plants which are operating at low efficiency or only on diesel oil fuel. Therefore, in addition to improvement in generating unit productivity and reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, the Project will also lead to reductions in SOx and NOx. Moreover, since the level of consumption of high cost diesel oil will be reduced, this will lead to an improvement in the financial state of MEPE. Here, output will increase by total 90MW or approximately 2 times, and efficiency will jump by 17% to 39.8%. (However, the increases in output and efficiency at Shwedaung and Mann thermal power stations are different).

[Case of Viewing in Terms of Power Facilities Renovation] Since Project implementation will lead to increased output and efficiency at the target power stations, it will be possible to dismantle or suspend deteriorated plants which until now couldn ’t be closed down due to the power shortage, and to carry out inspections and repairs or renovate these into new facilities.

3-10 < Transmission and Distribution Loss Reduction >

Here, the long-term energy conservation and GHG reduction effects of the Project are discussed based on the loss reduction results in Chapter 2.

3.4 Energy Conservation

As the loss reduction effect described in 2.5.2.9 refers to the effect in the first year of improved operation, estimation of the long-term effect is necessary.

3.4.1 Technical Basis for Energy Conservation Effect

It is possible that the Project implementation finally make the electric energy production of thermal power stations reduced by the improvement of energy transmission efficiency on power system facilities, which is achieved with reducing power losses in the transmission and distribution systems. If transmission and distribution lose projects are not carried out, it is certainly necessary for interconnected thermal power stations to consume much more amount of fuel to compensate the electric energy loss in transmission and distribution systems.

3.4.2 Baseline of Energy Conservation Effect

Based on the loss reduction calculation in Chapter 2, it is assumed that the loss reduction work will be completed in March 2003 and it will bring the effects from April 2003. Therefore, the target year for the calculation was set in 2003 as a base year and the calculation has been done in 0. For the calculation of the long-term transmission loss reduction, the case without the transmission and distribution loss reduction project is considered as the baseline. This assumption must take the annual changing of the power system into consideration, making it necessary to refer to any existing expansion plan by MEPE. However, this study found that there is no official plan for the future of the Mandalay system, implying fairly flexible planning and operation for it. Consequently, the baseline for the long-term analysis is set that the existing facilities cope with the future demand without any extension.

3-11 3.4.3 Results on Energy Conservation Effect

The amount of loss reduction in long-term is calculated based on the baseline established in 3.4.2 The period for lasting effect is set at 25 years which is considered to be a reasonable lifetime for the transmission and distribution equipment. In theory, the transmission loss increases at a rate of the square of the peak load growth rate and the calculation results using this theoretical idea are shown in Table 3.4-1.

Table 3.4-1 Estimation of Long-term Annual Transmission Loss Reduction (loss increase rate is square of peak load growth rate)

year 1 2 3 4 5 10 15 20 25

Annual Growth K 12.77% 12.77% 10.47% 10.47% 10.47% 10.47% 10.47% 10.47% Rate of Peak Load (1) (1.13) (1.27) (1.40) (1.55) (2.55) (420) (6.91) (11.37)

Peak Load L»=L,i*(l+K)2 14,906 18,955 24,104 29,417 35,898 97,163 263,014 711,962 1,927237 Reduction multiplication to [kW] (1.27) (1.62) (1.97) (2.41) (6.52) (17.64) (47.76) (129.29) 1st year (1)

Annual Energy M=H*L e*8.76 55,953 71,151 90,478 110,421 134,749 364,717 987265 2,672,463 7234,192 Reduction multiplication to [MWh/year] (1.27) (1.62) (1.97) (2.41) (6.52) (17.64) (47.76) (129.29) 1st year (1) H : energy loss factor 0.4285

According to Table 3.4-1, the peak load at 10th year will increase by around three times of the 1st year, and at the 25th year, it will increase by around 11 times of the 1st year. On the other hand, the reduction at the 10th year will increase by around seven times of the 1st year, and at the 25th year, it will increase by around 129 times of 1st year. This steady annual increase of the reduction can be attributed to the assumption that no new facilities to meet the future demand increase will be introduced throughout the subject period. In reality, new transmission and distribution facilities will be reinforced to meet the peak load and the actual amount of loss reduction will be lower than the figures suggested in Table 3.4-1. However, it is extremely difficult to accurately estimate how much lower the actual loss reduction will be. Therefore, to establish the minimum loss reduction level, the peak load growth rate is set at zero. In other words, the amount of loss reduction at the 1st year is assumed to continue at the 2nd year and thereafter. The calculation results based on such assumption are shown in Table 3.4-2 and the figures in this table are adopted as the long-term loss reduction. According to Table 3.4-2, the annual loss reduction of 56GWh will continue for 25 years, amounting to total loss reduction of l,400GWh in 25 years.

3-12 Table 3.4-2 Estimation of Long-term Annual Transmission Loss Reduction (loss increase rate is Zero)

year 1 2 3 4 5 10 15 20 25 Peak Load . Reduction[kW] Lb 14,906 14,906 14,906 14,906 14,906 14,906 14,906 14,906 14,906

Red^oM^Wye,,, M=H.t,*8.76 55,953 55,953 55,953 55,953 55,953 55,953 55,953 55,953 55,953 Annual Energy Reduction 55,953 111,906 167,859 223,812 279,765 559,530 839,295 1,119,060 1398,825 Accumulation [MWhl Energy conservation [ktoe/yr] 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 12 12 12

H : energy loss factor 0.4285

3.4.4 Verification Method of Energy Conservation Effect (Monitoring Method)

The Project improves total efficiency of the whole power system by reducing power losses in transmission and distribution systems, and finally it reduces fuel consumption of thermal power plants. When this effect is observed, what must be considered is that it becomes a meaningless result because of the incompatible conditions, where the power flow in the system always fluctuates despite with or without the implementation of the Projects, even though a comparison of transmission loss between before and after the implementation of the Project were conducted Since observation of the transmission loss (power flow) at only the project sites is not sufficient to identify the effects of the Project, it is necessary to simultaneously observe losses at anywhere in whole systems because the loss reduction project in a part area affects whole power systems. The monitoring of the whole system will expense huge time as well as cost. Even if the monitoring can be conducted, much of error will occur in the result due to demand growth, fluctuation of non-technical loss, changes of network configuration. Consequently, the actual monitoring of the loss reduction is not planned and is substituted by the power flow simulation using a computer similar to the loss calculation in 0. In general, the transmission loss of an electric circuit can be accurately calculated once the caring current in the said circuit is accurately determined

3.4.4.1 Organization in charge of Simulation Activity

TEPSCO will conduct the planned simulation using a personal computer and will be assisted by MEPE. The simulation software, PFLOW was developed by TEPSCO for the analysis of transmission and distribution loss reduction study in Jordan and Bangladesh as JICA and OECF projects, and is capable of analyzing the transmission loss better than other softwares of power system analysis.

3-13 S.4.4.2 Input Data

A power system map of the Mandalay system will be prepared and the following data will be input. • Line constants of the system (resistance, reactance and capacitance of each line) • Transformer constants of the system (reactance, copper loss and iron loss of each transformer) • Injection power from neighboring trunk systems • Load data

3.4.4.3 Data Collection Method

The MEPE will be requested to collect data on constants of each transmission line and transformer, injection power from trunk systems, and load of each node.

3.4.4.4 Simulation Interval

The simulation will be conducted before and after the implementation of the Project respectively. Although the monitoring for the Project is not recommendable due to much expense of time and money and due to less accuracy of the result, as a reference, an example of monitoring method for Project 1-7 is proposed as below. Th is monitoring is available to check the transmission loss reduction at a specific section, however, it cannot identify the total amount of losses in the whole system.

(1) Monitoring Implementation Organization • MEPE, assisted by TEPSCO

(2) Monitoring Items Before implementation of loss reduction project • Electric energy at the power source end of the existing llkV Wakingone distribution line After implementation of loss reduction project • Electric energy at the power source end of the existing llkV Wakingone distribution line • Electric energy at the power source end of the newly constructed 33kV transmission line between Aungpinlae to NW

(3) Data Collection Method MEPE engineers will be requested to measure the above-mentioned monitoring items before and after the implementation of transmission loss reduction project Before implementation, watt-hour meters

3-14 will be mounted on the existing PT & CT terminal of the transmission line which is the target of loss reduction project at Aungpinlae Substation in order to automatically record electric energy. Following the implementation of the Project, a similar monitoring will be conducted for the existing transmission line in question and also for the newly constructed 33kV transmission line. The transmission and distribution loss reduction will be calculated by the difference in transmitted electric energy (kWh) between before and after the implementation of the Project. If the demand before the implementation differs from that after the implementation, the calculated difference does not indicate the accurate transmission loss. Therefore, the amount of loss reduction will have to be corrected in the consideration of impacts on fluctuation of electric energy sales and non-technical loss. However, there is currently no way of measuring the non-technical loss. In such a country as Myanmar where the non-technical loss is quite large, the result by the above measure will contain a large number of errors in it.

(4) Monitoring Interval Data will be recorded hourly for a period of one month before and after the implementation of loss reduction project.

3.5 GHG Reduction Effect

3.5.1 Technical Basis for GHG Reduction Effect

GHG emission, particularly C02 among various GHGs which are generated through energy conversion from primary energy to electric energy, can be reduced by changing the type of primary energy from fossil fuel to other types. By another way, the emission of GHGs can also be reduced by directly decreasing the electric energy production of thermal power stations. This reduction of electric energy production can generally be conducted in two ways, one is by the reduction of the power demand which is based for daily human life, and the other is by the reduction of useless energy loss generated in the processes from power generation through consumption. The reduction of transmission and distribution loss proposed in the Project belongs to the latter. The Project finally aims at the reduction of C02 emission discharged from these stations by means of directly reducing the electric energy production of thermal power stations, which is achieved with the improvement of energy transmission efficiency on power system facilities to reduce power losses in the transmission and distribution systems. As the effect of transmission power loss reduction in them operates indirectly on the reduction of C02 emission, the relation between the transmission power loss

3-15 reduction and C02 emission reduction may not be clearly understandable. If transmission and distribution losses are not reduced, it is certainly necessary for interconnected thermal power stations to consume much more amount of fuel to compensate the electric energy loss in transmission and distribution systems. From the point of view of other side, the reduction of transmission and distribution losses contributes to the reduction of GHG emission.

3.5.2 Baseline of GHG Reduction Effect

As in the case of 3.4.2, the case without the implementation of the Project is considered as the baseline and the effect for reduction is considered to last for 25 years. As for the thermal plant to be targeted on CG2 reduction, there are two ideas as below.

(1) C02 reduction of the thermal power stations to be developed in planning, which do not exist (2) C02 reduction of the existing thermal power stations

The former is explained in 2.5.2.S.7 of page 2-108 dealing with "benefit" and is based on the concept that the transmission loss reduction effect can hold back the planned generating capacity of future power stations. The latter is based on the concept that the transmission loss reduction effect can actually lower the output of existing power stations. What is the actual effect of loss reduction on the emission of C02? The peak load of the whole system in 2003-04 is estimated to be 1,527 MW as shown in Table 2.5-10 of page 2-93, while the transmission loss reduction is 15 MW. Therefore, the reduction is approximately 1% of the peak load, and the impact by the Project on the power source development will be small, since the annual growth rate of the peak load is assumed to be 13%. In general, as a new thermal power station is designed to have a high thermal efficiency, it is operated with a higher priority among existing thermal units. Consequently, with the introduction of a new thermal power station, any surplus generating capacity beyond the peak load is filled in with existing thermal power units as illustrated in Fig. 7-3-1. Therefore, the construction of a thermal power station in the future will lower the priority of the generating operation of existing thermal units, and existing thermal units will gradually shift into the power sources for the middle and/or peak load and also are most affected by the transmission loss reduction.

3-16 1.5 GW

Reduced Loss Enegy

Load Duration Curve Load Duration Curve

Hours Hours

Figure 3.5-1 Changing Operating Pattern of Existing Thermal Power Station Due to Introduction of New Thermal Power Station

In conclusion, the power sources where C02 emission is reduced by the Project is assumed to be existing thermal power plants with a poor thermal efficiency around 25%. However, after the 11th year of completion of the Project implementation, thermal power plants with a high thermal efficiency around 40% is assumed to be the subject stations of the C02 reduction, since existing thermal power plants with a poor thermal efficiency will retire due to aging from the 11th year onwards.

3.5.3 Results on GHG Reduction Effect

The C02 emission is calculated using the carbon emission factor shown in Table 3.5-1.

Table 3.5-1 Carbon Emission Factor Carbon Emission Factor Type of Fuel (d) [C-kg/ kcall Coal 1.0344 x 10"4

Heavy Oil 0.8180 xiO^

Gasoline 0.7658 xiO^

LPG 0.6833 xio^

Natural Gas 0.5639 xio^

Source: Environmental Agency, “Survey Report on COZ Emission ”, 1992

The amount of C02 in emission gas when the electric energy of lkWh is generated, which is denoted as g, is calculated by the following equation.

3-17 g = d x t X m -r e ------<7-l) = d X 859.8 X (44/12) 4- e = 3,152.6 X d 4- e [C02-kg/kWh] Where, d : carbon emission factor [C-kg/kcal] t : conversion factor from thermal energy to electric energy : 856.8 [kcal/kWh] m : molecular weight ratio between C02 and carbon: 44/12 e : thermal efficiency at sending end of thermal power plant The C02 emission per kWh by fuels and thermal efficiencies is shown in Table 3.5-2.

Table 3.5-2 C02 Emission by Fuels and Thermal Efficiencies [kg/kWh] or [ton/MWh] Thermal Efficiency of Thermal Power Plant (sending end) Type of Fuel (e) 20% 25% 35% 40% 45%

Coal 1.6305 1.3044 0.9317 0.8153 0.7247

Heavy Oil 1.2894 1.0315 0.7368 0.6447 0.5731 Gasoline 1.2071 0.9657 0.6898 0.6036 0.5365

LPG 1.0771 0.8617 0.6155 0.5385 0.4787

Natural Gas 0.8889 0.7111 0.5079 0.4444 0.3951

The C02 reduction over 25 years using the baselines shown in Table 3.4-2 and Table 3.5-2 is shown in Table 3.5-3. Up to the 10th year, the plants of targeted C02 reduction are existing thermal power plants with poor thermal efficiency around 25%. From the 11th year onwards, thermal power plants with higher thermal efficiency around 40% are the subjects of C02 reduction. In Myanmar, natural gas is popular as a fuel of thermal power plants. According to Table 3.5-3, the estimated C02 reduction over 25 years is 771kilotons.

Table 3.5-3 Estimation of C02 Reduction

Year 1 2 3 4 5 10 11 15 20 25

Annual Energy Reduction 55,953 55,953 55,953 55,953 55,953 55,953 55,953 55,953 55,953 55,953 [MWh/year]

Annual COZ Reduction 39,788 39,788 39,788 39,788 39,788 39,788 24,866 24,866 24,866 24,866 [ton/year]

Annual C02 Reduction 39,788 79,576 119364 159,152 198,940 397,880 422,746 522,210 646,540 770,870 Accumulation [ton]

3-18 3.5.4 Verification Method GHG Reduction Effect (Monitoring Method)

To describe the conclusion at first, there is no way of verifying GHG reduction effect in case of the Project The reason is that the Project makes GHG emission reduced by directly reducing the electric power to be generated at thermal power stations. Even if a monitoring of the C02 emission is conducted for all of thermal power stations before and after project implementation, the total electric energy production of thermal power stations significantly changes every year, because of such factors as a demand growth, a change of the generating an operation of existing power sources due to development or retirement, and a fluctuation of the electric energy production of hydropower due to a rainfall fluctuation. Furthermore, since the energy production of each thermal power station changes every year because of inspection, outage and other factors, a simple comparison of the energy production between before and after the implementation of the Project brings entirely meaningless results. To describe it in more detail, the load factor, the system configuration and other reinforcement projects for transmission/distribution systems influence the energy production of thermal power stations to a certain extent. It is, therefore, necessary to calculate the difference in the energy productions by each thermal power unit with eliminating the above factors between before and after the Project implementation. To eliminate these factors, it is necessary to set up a hypothesis that if such factors had not occurred, how the existing thermal units would have been operated. Such a hypothesis makes the monitoring after the Project implementation meaningless. Meanwhile, the electric energy reduction effect of the Project upon the entire system is not more than 1% at peak load and 0.6% for a year. Therefore, even if the elimination of factors mentioned above is attempted, the amount of effect hides behind the error brought by the factors.

Change of Non-technical Loss Extension of Generators

Retirement of Generators

Peak Load Growth

Change of Load Factor Fluctuation of Rainfall Generating Operation oi

Existing Thermal Plant Reinforcement

Transmission / Distributor Output Fluctuation of Hydropower Systems

Inspection of Generators Change of System Configuration

Outage of Generators

Figure 3.5-2 Factors Affecting Operation of Existing Thermal Power Plant

3-19 As described above, when the GHG reduction effect spreads to the whole system and the energy reduction effect operates to directly reduce the generating power such as cases of the Project, A monitoring between before and after the Project implementation is entirely meaningless. Furthermore, a method whereby monitoring of the GHG reduction effect is unnecessary is studied as below. It is essentially impossible to specify the thermal power plants where the GHG emission is reduced by the Project. From the point of view of the other side, if a thermal unit is arbitrarily decided to retire, it may be declared that the reduction effect actually takes place at that particular station. Since the thermal unit has already retired, the monitoring is not necessary. In other words, monitoring is not necessary if a thermal power station which satisfy the following criteria is found to became a target power station where the GHG emission is reduced by means of the suspension or retirement of itself after the completion of the Project.

(1) An aging thermal power station of which the retirement years has been scheduled within 10 years. (2) The GHG emission per kWh is higher level among existing units. (3) The installed capacity is nearly the same as the peak load reduction of the Project, approximately 15MW. (4) The annual electric energy production is nearly the same as the annual energy reduction of the Project, approximately 56GWh.

Although it appears to be a severe requirement to identify and retire or suspend such a power station for Myanmar in the situation of highly growth of power demand, it may well lead a power station with poor efficiency into early retirement, and it may also promote an introduction of highly efficient generating facilities. Since the idea mentioned above is related to the trade of emission, the actual trade conditions must be decided in detail through negotiations with the Government of Myanmar.

3.6 Impacts on Productivity

With the implementation of the Project, the peak load reduction and annual energy reduction are 15MW and 56GWh respectively. From the point of view of a whole system, an improvement of around 1 point is expected in the loss ratio at peak load, and an improvement of around 0.6 point is expected in the loss ratio in annual energy. A power system expansion plan is closely related to the medium to long-term demand forecast. The present level of the transmission loss of more than 30%, including non-technical loss, means an extremely large fluctuation risk in terms of the demand forecast and facility development planning. If

3-20 the spread of a transmission loss reduction project enables to reduce such loss, the demand forecast in medium to long-term range will be more accurately conducted, contributing to the reasonableness of reserve of generating facilities. In the future, the reasonableness of reserve power will enable the establishment of a sound and more economical power system.

3-21 CHAPTER 4

PROFITABILITY

AND

COST PERFORMANCE Chapter4 Profitability and Cost Performance

< Thermal Power Station Improvement Project >

4.1 Profitability

The investment return effect in the event of Project implementation was investigated through assessing the financial internal rate of return (FTRR). The evaluation criteria are as shown in Table 4.1-1. Refer to Table 2.2-18 for an outline of facilities in the Project case and Table 2.3-1 for the Project budget Table 4.1-1 Evaluation criteria (MMUS$) Shwedaung P/S Mann P/S Project budget 38.8 52.2 33.9 22.6 Replacement cost in 11th Replacement of the gas turbines will be year necessary in the 10th year, and the cost of this is projected to the 11th year Construction period 12 months Fuel cost (per year) 10.9 10.9 O&M cost (per year) 0.6 0.6 Electricity tariff 0.04 US$/kWh Annual operating rate of 80% is estimated However, the rate which can be collected as Operating method electricity tariff shall be 75% of the annual generated power amount Service life of facilities 25 years

The IRR (Internal Rate of Returns) is calculated on the basis of the following formula.

Z0 Bn - Q 0=2 ------n =1 (1+R) n

Zq = Life cycle of Facility Bn = Benefit of n year’s Cn = Cost of n year’s R = Internal Rate of Return

The results of calculating the FIRR based on the above conditions are as indicated in Table 4.1-2.

4-1 Table 4.1-2 Financial Internal Rate of Returns (FIRR)

Shwedaung P/S Mann P/S 12.8 9.4 FIRR (%) (See table 4.1-3) (See table 4.1-4)

Funds shall be obtained through a yen loan from the Government of Japan. Concerning the rate of interest, since the Project intends to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, an environmental yen loan shall be adopted with an interest rate of 1.7%.

As can be inferred from the above results, the investment return on the Project exceeds the market rate of interest in Myanmar of approximately 12%; accordingly, the Project is deemed to be a good investment. Incidentally, upon calculating the return on equity (ROE), this was found to be approximately 8.7% for Shwedaung thermal power station and 8.4 for Mann thermal power station.

4-2 Table 4.1-3 FIRR result of Shwedaung P/S

Construction Cost Replacement Cost 38,800,000 33,900,000 ______(US$) No. Year Cost Fuel Cost O/M Cost Benefit Net-Benefit Present Value n 0 2,000 23,280,000 0 0 0 -23,280,000 -20,631,110 1 1 2,001 15,520,000 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 -9,220,000 -7,241,194 2 2 2,002 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 4,384,897 3 3 2,003 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 3,885,967 4 4 2,004 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 3,443,806 5 5 2,005 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 3,051,956 6 6 2,006 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 2,704,693 7 7 2,007 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 2,396,942 8 8 2,008 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 2,124,209 9 9 2,009 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 1,882,508 10 10 2,010 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 1,668,309 11 11 2,011 33,900,000 6,540,000 360,000 10,700,000 -30,100,000 -7,063,859 12 12 2,012 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 1,310,255 13 13 2,013 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 1,161,169 14 14 2,014 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 1,029,046 15 15 2,015 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 911,957 16 16 2,016 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 808,191 17 17 2,017 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 716,232 18 18 2,018 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 634,736 19 19 2,019 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 562,514 20 20 2,020 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 498,509 21 21 2,021 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 441,786 22 22 2,022 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 391,518 23 23 2,023 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 346,970 24 24 2,024 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 307,490 25 25 2,025 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 272,503 26

72,700,000 0

Total Construction Cost: 38,800,000 Total Loan Cost: 72.700.000 Total Cost (A): 355.600.000 Total Benefit (B): 437.900.000 Total Balance (B-A): 82.300.000

Production cost: 0.025

4-3 Table 4.1-4 FIRR result of Mann P/S

Construction Cost Replacement Cost 52,200,000 22,600,000 ______(US$) No. Year Cost Fuel Cost O/M Cost Benefit Net-Benefit Present Value n 0 2,000 31,320,000 0 0 0 -31,320,000 -28,615,890 1 1 2,001 20,880,000 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 -14,580,000 -12,171,063 2 2 2,002 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 4,805,040 3 3 2,003 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 4,390,182 4 4 2,004 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 4,011,142 5 5 2,005 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 3,664,827 6 6 2,006 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 3,348,413 7 7 2,007 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 3,059,317 8 8 2,008 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 2,795,182 9 9 2,009 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 2,553,851 10 10 2,010 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 2,333,356 11 11 2,011 22,600,000 6,540,000 360,000 10,700,000 -18,800,000 -6,361,856 12 12 2,012 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 1,947,834 13 13 2,013 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 1,779,662 14 14 2,014 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 1,626,009 15 15 2,015 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 1,485,623 16 16 2,016 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 1,357,357 17 17 2,017 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 1,240,165 18 18 2,018 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 1,133,092 19 19 2,019 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 1,035,263 20 20 2,020 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 945,880 21 21 2,021 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 864,214 22 22 2,022 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 789,600 23 23 2,023 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 721,427 24 24 2,024 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 659,140 25 25 2,025 10,900,000 600,000 17,800,000 6,300,000 602,232 26

74,800,000 lllilER 9.4% 0

Total Construction Cost: 52.200.000 Total Loan Cost: 74.800.000 Total Cost (A): 357.700.000 Total Benefit (B): 437.900.000 Total Balance (B-A): 80.200.000

Production cost: 0.025

4-4 4.1.1 Sensitivity Analysis

With respect to Shwedaung and Mann thermal power stations, FIRR sensitivity analysis was carried out according to price fluctuations in the construction cost, fuel cost and electricity tariff. The results of this are shown in Figure 4.1-1.

Shwedaung P/S Sensitivity Analysis

-♦—Construction -*-Fuel -♦-Tariff

Price fluctuation

Mann P/S Sensitivity Analysis

2 10.OX »! t! i! i! M* j t! 8 >/<' 'S' z -♦—Construction —•—Fuel -♦-Tariff

>•»% *

Price fluctuation

Figure 4.1-1 Sensitivity Analysis According to Price Fluctuations

4-5 4.2 Cost Performance

Cost effectiveness refers to the amount of greenhouse gas reduction per dollar. Comparing the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (aggregate over 25 years) to the construction cost in the event of Project implementation assesses this. The base unit of C02 emissions and unit price of power generation following Project implementation was also implemented. The above calculation results are indicated in Table 4.2-1.

Table 4-2-1 Cost Performance Shwedaung Mann Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (kt-C02/year) 323 173 Aggregate reductions over 25 years (kt-C02) 8075 4325 Project construction cost (MM US $) 72.7 74.8 Cost effect (US $/t-CQ2) 9 17.3 Base unit of emissions (g-C02/kWh) 560 560 Generation unit price (US cents/kWh) 2.5 2.5

Since the gas turbines to be used in the Project were constructed approximately 20 years’ ago and have low performance and output, the base unit of emissions is high. Moreover, concerning the large disparity in cost effectiveness between Shwedaung and Mann thermal power stations, this can be explained by the fact that Project effect is diminished in the case of Mann thermal power station due to the installation of a new gas turbine.

4-6 < Transmission and Distribution Loss Reduction Project >

4.3 Profitability

This section analyses the profitability of the Project and also evaluates the expected cost performance of the Project The profitability analysis is conducted in terms of the economic profitability and financial profitability. The former analyses the degree of economic effect of the Project for the national economy while the latter analyses the extent of the direct profits of the Project to recover the initial investment The evaluation results are discussed below in turn.

43.1 Cost Estimation

4.3.1.1 Estimation of Financial Cost

The cost of the Project consists of the cost of the facilities required for the work and the installation cost of such facilities. The overall cost includes the transmission/distribution line construction cost under the category of direct construction cost and various expenses, including the management cost, design and engineering cost and extraordinary expenses, under the category of indirect cost (see Chapter 5 for details). These costs constitute the financial cost of the Project.

4.3.1.2 Estimation of Economic Cost

As the market prices used for the above estimation of the financial cost are usually distorted by various national regulations, such as taxes, etc., they do not represent the real economic cost The financial cost is converted to the economic cost in the following manner.

Firstly, the financial cost estimated above is divided into the foreign currency portion and the domestic currency portion. The foreign currency portion is considered to represent the border prices (CDF prices) of imported goods immediately after their importation and is treated as the economic cost without conversion. The domestic currency portion is converted to the economic cost using the standard conversion factor (SQF) which is described below. The actual economic cost is estimated to be the total of the foreign currency portion and the converted domestic currency portion.

The classification of cost items into the foreign currency portion and the domestic currency portion is indirectly inferred using the proportions of the foreign and domestic currency portions in the borrowing of the Myanmar government. At present, loans of foreign governments and international

4-7 organizations (OECF, World Bank and ADB, etc.) in government borrowing account for approximately 85% of the total borrowing with domestic loans, i.e. government securities, such as national bonds, accounting for the remaining some 15%. These proportions are used for the present analysis. 1}

4.3.1.3 Calculation of Standard Conversion Factor (SCF)

The SCF is often used as a simple way of converting market prices to economic prices. The SCF is calculated on the basis of the trade statistics of the country concerned using the following formula.

SCF = ______M + X______(M + Tm) + (X - Tx + SB)

Where, M : total import value (CIF price) X : total export value (FOB price) Tm : import duty Tx : export duty SB : export subsidy

The financial and economic costs estimated by the above procedure are shown in Table 4.3-1.

Table 4.3-1 Estimation of Financial and Economic Costs (Unit: 1000US$)

Total Construction Cost (Financial Cost) 7,613 - Foreign Currency Portion (85%) 6,471 - Domestic Currency Portion (15%) 1,142 Revised by SCF 1,075 Total Construction Cost (Economic Cost) 7,546 * SCF: 0.94166

The O & M cost (operation and management cost) is set at 1.0% of each total construction cost.

As ODA and other foreign aid for Myanmar is currently frozen, it will be necessary to review these proportions in the coming years.

4-8 43.2 Establishment of Benefit

4.3.2.1 Economic Benefit of Transmission and Distribution Loss Reduction Project

Here, the type of benefit produced by the Project is firstly established. This benefit of the Project is illustrated in the following graph.

Peak Power (kW) Transmission End

Supply Duration (hrs)

A transmission and distribution loss reduction project generally has such positive effects as (i) reduced peak power at the transmission end and (ii) reduced electric energy supply at the transmission end (or reduced fuel consumption). Segment AB and area ABC show these effects in the above graph. The reduced portion of the transmission loss, however, must be compensated for by a new thermal power station (or hydropower station) if no loss reduction work is conducted (i.e. the case of without). For the purposes of the present discussion, the use of a combined cycle (c/c) thermal power station is assumed as such a new thermal power station (alternative thermal power station) and the saved cost is considered to be the economic benefit of the Project.

The cost of an alternative thermal power station is calculated using the “kW value and kWh value method ”.2) This method involves the classification of the construction cost of the substitute thermal power station into the fixed cost, mainly consisting of the cost of the power generating facilities, and the fluctuating cost, mainly consisting of the fuel cost, and calculation of the unit kW cost from the fixed cost and the unit kWh cost from the fuel cost. The calculation results using this method are given below (see Chapter 5 for details).

4-9 kW value (unit kW cost) : US$ 81.37/kW/year kWh value (unit kWh cost) : US$ 0.03/kWh

Multiplying the power loss reduction amount (kW loss reduction amount) and the energy loss reduction amount (kWh loss reduction amount) established in Chapter 5 can therefore, calculate the economic benefit of the Project by the above unit costs.

4.3.2.2 Establishment of Financial Benefit

The financial benefit of a project is generally considered to be the cash income directly produced by the implementation of a project. In the case of the present Project, however, its implementation will not change the amount of electricity sold at the receiving end. Therefore, there will be no increase of the cash income. However, it is conceivable that the net profit will increase as the Project will reduce the fuel cost due to reduced fuel consumption, thereby reducing the unit generation cost on the financial statements of the power generation body. As such, this reduced fuel cost is considered to be “assumed income ” and constitutes the financial benefit of the Project.

As the peak load reduction will not be accompanied by a reduction of the unit generation cost on the financial statements, it is not included in the financial benefit. *3)

The kWh value estimated from the reduced fuel cost due to reduced fuel consumption is used to estimate the financial benefit. The average unit fuel cost (US$ 0.0367) for the last five years, calculated on the basis of MEPE data, is used as the fuel cost (this cost is not the kWh value at the above-mentioned alternative thermal power station).

4.3.3 Sunk Cost

In the case of a transmission line construction project, handling of the sunk cost always poses a question. The sunk cost is the expense already incurred for the construction of an existing power station and is usually added to the cost of the project. However, the benefit of a transmission/distribution line construction project cannot be achieved without the presence of an existing power generating facility. Several problems can be pointed out, including that under ­ estimation of the cost due to ignoring the sunk cost results in an abnormally high earnings rate. In the

9 The kW value and kWh value are also described as the power value and electric energy value or the capital cost and energy cost respectively. Each set of terms has essentially the same meaning. 3) It is conceivable that the reduced peak power will reduce the friction of the existing generating facilities, resulting in a real reduction of the “depredation cost ”. However, the depredation of fixed assets is stipulated by the accounting rules, which are hardly revised. Therefore, this factor is ignored here.

4-10 case of World Bank projects in particular, there is an increasing tendency for projects not to be dealt with as single entities but to be evaluated by time slice analysis 4) which examines all related projects. For this analysis, part of the sunk cost is added to the cost of the Project to conduct a trial calculation. As the total cost of existing generating facilities is impossible to calculate because of the shortage of data, the simple method of subtracting a specified portion from the benefit is used to account for the sunk cost This portion is provisionally set at 30% and its impact is examined later in the sensitivity analysis.

43.4 Profitability Analysis

Profitability analysis is conducted next using the cost and benefit estimated above. It is stated in Chapter2 about the thought of transmission/distribution loss reduction, which is the base of benefit.

In addition to the difficulty of establishing a specific period for the loss reduction effect of the Project because of the continuation of such effect over a long period of time, a distribution system often undergoes a change of connections and additional installation. In view of such circumstances, the subject period for analysis is provisionally set at 10 years.

The internal rates of return (IRR), total net present value (B-C) and the ratio of cost and benefit (B/C) are shown Table 4.3-2. And, the internal rates of return calculated on the basis of the above figures are shown in Table 4.3-3 and 4.3-4.

Table 4.3-2 EIRR and FIRR Calculation Results

IRR (B-C) (B/C) Economic 20.41% 4,005,662 1.36 Profitability Financial 17.56% 2,817,484 1.42 Profitability

Time slice analysis: similar projects in a given country are divided into units of several years each and the total cost and benefit values for all similar projects in a unit period are calculated to analyze the average profitability of these projects.

4-11 Table 4.3-3 Calculation of EIRR

Project Cost Construction Cost 7,546,379 Depreciation Periods 25years Discount rate 10.00% Ratio of Annual OAM Cost to Construction Cost 1.0%/kW Ration of Sunk Cost to Total Benefit 30.0%

Altanalive Marginal Cost of 150MW Combied Cycle Power Plant Capacity Cost at sending end 677.10 US$/kW Annual Capacity and OAM Cost (kW Value) 81.37 US$/kW/year Energy Cost (kWh Value) 0.037 US$/kWh Loss Reduction Factor 0.4285 EIRR = 20.41% COST BENEFIT GROWTH REDUCE REDUCED REDUCED REDUCED CONST. OAM SUNK RATE OF D POWER CAPACITY ENERGY ENERGY NET year COST COST COST POWER LOSS COST LOSS COST (US$) (US$) (US$) (US$) FLOW (kW) (US$) (MWh) (US$) (%1 1 2,515,460 0 0 0 -2,515,460 2 2,515,460 0 0 0 -2,515,460 3 2,515,460 0 0 ##### -2,515,460 4 75,464 984,949 - 14,906 1,212,901 55,953 2*079,261 2,222,750 5 75,464 984,938 0.00% 14,906 1,212,901 55,952 2,070,226 2,222,725

6 75,464 984,938 0.00% 14,906 55,952 2,070,226 2,222,725 7 75,464 984,938 0.00% 14,906 55,952 2,222,725

8 75,464 984,938 0.00% 14,906 55,952 2,070,226 2,222,725

9 75,464 984,938 0.00% 14,906 55,952 2,07%# i 2,222,725 10 75,464 984,938 0.00% 14,906 55,952 2,070,226 2,222,725

11 75,464 984,938 0.00% 14,906 55,952 2,079,226 2,222,725 12 75,464 984,938 0.00% 14,906 55,952 24)70226 2,222,725 13 75,464 984,938 0.00% 14,906 55,952 2,070,226 2,222,725

IRR = 20.41% NPV(B-C)= 4,005,662

B/C = 1.36

4-12 Table 4.3-4 Calculation of FTRR

Project Cost Construction Cost 7,613,000 Depreciation Periods 25years Discount rate 10.00% Ratio of Annual O&M Cost to Construction Cost 1.0%/kW Ration of Sunk Cost to Total Benefit 30.0%

Unit Price Energy Cost (kWh Value) 0.0367 US$/kWh Loss Reduction Factor 0.4285

FIRR = 17.56% COST BENEFIT GROWTH REDUCED REDUCED REDUCED REDUCED CONST. O&M SUNK RATE OF POWER CAPACIT ENERGY ENERGY NET year COST COST COST POWER LOSS Y COST LOSS COST (USS) (US$) (US$) (US$) FLOW (kW) (USS) (MWh) (USS) (%)

1 2,537,667 0 0 9 -2,537,667 -2,537,667 2 2,537,667 0 0 ...... a ...... 3 2,537,667 0 0 ...... a ...... -2,537,667 4 0 76,130 0 - 14,906 G 55,953 2,053,475 1,977,345 5 0 76,130 0 0.00% 14,906 55,952 2,053,440 1,977,310 6 0 76,130 0 0.00% 14,906 G 55,952 2,053,440 1,977,310 7 0 76,130 0 0.00% 14,906 G 55,952 2,053,440 1,977,310 8 0 76,130 0 0.00% 14,906 G 55,952 2,053,440 1,977,310 9 0 76,130 0 0.00% 14,906 G 55,952 2,053,440 1,977,310 10 0 76,130 0 0.00% 14,906 0 55,952 2,053/MO 1,977,310 11 0 76,130 0 0.00% 14,906 G 55,952 2,053,440 1,977,310 12 0 76,130 0 0.00% 14,906 G 55,952 2,053,440 1,977,310 13 0 76,130 0 0.00% 14,906 G 55,952 2,053,440 1,977,310

IRR = 17.56% NPV(B-C)= 2,817,484 B/C = 1.42

4-13 4.3.5 Sensitivity Analysis

Based on the above analysis of the EIRR and FIRR, sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the impacts of price fluctuation on the cost and benefit. It is necessary for this analysis to take price fluctuation and other uncertain elements in the future into consideration and this applies to all countries. Using the above case as the basis, this sensitivity analysis examines the outcome of a 5% increase and 10% increase of the cost and a 5% decrease and 10% decrease of the benefit (see Table 4.3-5 and Table 4.3-6).

43.6 Evaluation of Profitability and Feasibility of the Project

Here, the profitability of the Project established above is compared with the social discount rate and open market rate in Myanmar to evaluate the feasibility of the Project.

4.3.6.1 Social Discount Rate in Myanmar

The level of the social discount rate in Myanmar is firstly examined. At present, the open market rate in Myanmar is approximately 10% for deposits and 15% for loans. Meanwhile, the annual rate of inflation has been as high as 20 - 30% for some time. Although the MEPE has suggested using the social discount rate of approximately 20%, the actual rate appears to be much lower based on the real interest rate, which is calculated by subtracting the inflation portion from the open market rate. The ADB considers that 8 -12% is a suitable discount rate for developing countries while the World Bank generally adopts 10%. Therefore, a social discount rate of 10% is provisionally employed.

4.3.6.2 Evaluation of Feasibility of the Project

Based on the above results of the profitability analysis, the feasibility of the Project is evaluated as follows.

- The EIRR substantially exceeds the social discount rate of 10% in Myanmar, indicating the sufficient feasibility of the Project. - As the FIRR exceeds the common loan interest rate of 15% in Myanmar, the Project poses no problems in terms of financial profitability indicating sufficient feasibility of the Project.

4-14 4.4 Cost Performance

Cost performance refers to the amount of greenhouse gas reduction per dollar. Comparing the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to the construction cost in the event of Project implementation assesses this like the thermal power rehabilitation project, which is stated above. The base unit of C02 emissions and unit price of power generation following Project implementation was also implemented. It is calculated regarding 25 years in accordance with the depreciation periods. And it is also calculated regarding 10 years in accordance with evaluation standard of profitability as the reference. The result is shown in Table 4.4-1.

Table4.4-1 Cost Performance

10 yr. (ref.) 25 yr.

Greenhouse Gases Reduction 397,880 770,870 (ton-C02/yrs.)

Project Construction Cost (1000 US $) 7.613 Cost Performance (US$ / t-C02) 19.13 9.87

The effect of the greenhouse gases reduction is stated in Chapter 6. Transmission/distribution loss reduction project is effective to reduce the greenhouse gases in comparison with the cost. However, it has rather high cost performance on this project because of the influence of such unfavorable conditions that the appropriate upgrading and improvement etc. are not carried out.

4-17 CHAPTER 5

POSSIBILITY OF SPREAD TECHNOLOGY Chapter 5 Possibility of Spread of Technologies

In the Projects, two types of technology are introduced to reduce the emission of C02, one is of combined cycle technology, and the other is of transmission loss reduction. The possibility of the spread of these technologies has been examined in Chapter 5.

< Thermal Power Station Improvement >

5.1 Possibility of Spread of Technologies

In addition to the Shwedaung and Mann gas turbine power stations that are the subject power stations of the Project, there are three other gas turbine power stations in Myanmar as listed in Table 5.1-1. The gas turbine power generating units of some of these power stations are much older than those of the Shwedaung and Mann Power Station and their urgent renovation is required. Given the observed conditions at the Shwedaung and Mann Power Stations, it can be easily imagined that these power stations also lack the necessary spare parts and that inspections, including major inspections, and other maintenance work are seldom conducted. As a result, it is reasonable to infer that the performance has declined and that the deteriorating thermal efficiency of the generating units has led to the increased emission of C02. It can, therefore, be expected that the rehabilitation of the gas turbine units and the transformation to a combined cycle power generation system as proposed for the subject power stations will reduce the fuel consumption of these power stations, greatly contributing to energy conservation and a reduction of C02 emission.

Table 5.1-1 List of Gas Turbine Power Stations Run by MEPE Unit Output (MW) x Number of Total Output Year of Units (Ambient Temperature: 45°C) (MW) Commissioning Kyunchang 18x3 54.3 1974 16.25 x 3 66.85 - Myanaung 18.1 x 1

Ywama 18.1x2 36.2 - Shwedaung 18.45 x 3 55.35 1982 -1984 Mann 18.45 x 2 36.9 1980 Note: All of the gas turbine units are the Frame-5 model.

5.2 Effects of Nationwide Spread

Each effects are calculated simply in comparison to the output with Shwedaung and Mann Power Stations, as the calculation method of energy conservation effect and greenhouse effect because it is unidentified the data such as the operation situation, fuel condition of other power stations.

5-1 5.2.1 Energy conservation

In addition to the Shwedaung and Mann Power Stations, the combined cycle power generation system can be introduced at three gas turbine power stations, i.e. Kyunchaung, Myanaung and Ywama with a total output of approximately 157.35 MW. If the combined cycle power generation system is introduced at all three of these power stations, the C02 emission of these power stations can be significantly reduced as shown in Table 5.2-1 based on the example of the Shwedaung Power Station (assuming the same generating facility conditions as those of the Shwedaung Power Station), illustrating the great effectiveness of this combined cycle system.

Table 5.2-1 GHG Reduction by Combined Cycle Power Generation System Shwedaung Mann 3 G/T Power Stations Total Output (MW) 55.35 36.9 157.35 Energy Conservation 105 87 298 [toe/yr.]

5.2.2 GHG Reduction Effect

As the preceding paragraph, it is effective, when greenhouse gases is calculated in comparison to output as shown Table 5.2-2.

Table 5.2-2 GHG Reduction by Combined Cycle Power Generation System Shwedaung Mann 3 G/T Power Stations Total Output (MW) 55.35 36.9 157.35 GHG Redction Effect [kt-COVyr.l 323 173 918

< Transmission and Distribution Loss Reduction >

5.3 Possibility of Spread of Technologies

The possibility of the Project cannot be determined without a field survey in other areas of Myanmar because of the different load conditions and facilities in each regional system. However, a simple analysis was conducted for the national grid system. The peak load in the subject area of the Project is approximately one-tenth of that of the national grid system while the transmission loss factor (including non-technical loss) of the national grid system is more than 30%. Accordingly, if the scope of the power loss reduction scheme is extended to the whole national grid system, approximately nine projects similar to the Project scale can be found.

5-2 5.4 Effects of Nationwide Spread

It is examined to a comparative simplification target with the whole National grid system, although it is difficult to assume the possibility of the Project diffusion without an investigation because the load condition, equipment condition and so on differ every area system. The peak electric power of the object area is 1/10 of the National grid system and the electric power loss (including non-technical loss) is over 30% in National grid system. Therefore, it is possible to study about 9 more projects of likely scale, if it is expanded an object area to the whole National grid.

5.4.1 Energy Conservation

The calculated effects under the conditions of the nationwide spread of power loss reduction scheme, including those under the Project, are shown in Table 5.4-1, Table 5.4-2.

Table 5.4-1 Energy Conservation Effects of Nationwide Extension Annual Reduction Annual Reduction Reduction for 25 years (1st year -10th year) (11th year -25th year) Peak Load Reduction [MW] 150 150 Energy Reduction[GWh/yr] 560 560 14,000 Energy Conservation 193 120 3,730 [k toe/yr]

Table 5.4-2 C02 Reduction Effects of Nationwide Extension Annual Reduction (™“r) R^Cion for 25 years (1st year -10th year) Peak Load Reduction [MW] 150 150 Energy Reduction[GWh/yr] 560 560 14,000 C02 Reduction [kt-C02/yr] 400 250 7,750

5-3 CHAPTER 6

IMPACTS ON OTHERS EXPECT GHG Chapter 6 Impacts on Others except GHG

The impacts of the Project except the GHG reduction are discussed in Chapter 6 in terms of the environmental (atmosphere), economic and social aspects.

< Thermal Power Station Improvement >

6.1 Impacts on Environmental, Economic and Social Aspects

As the Project will not only improve the thermal efficiency of power stations but will also increase the output if required, it will have the effect of lowering the operation of those power stations of which the thermal efficiency is poor and/or which use fuel oil. Moreover, it is believed that the stable supply of electricity will have a strong positive impact on not only the financial health of power stations but also on the economic and social activities of people living in the service areas.

(1) Environmental Impacts The improved thermal efficiency and output of power stations will not only reduce the emission of GHS but will also reduce the emission of such other substances as SOx, NOx, soot and dust, etc. by power stations. The selective operation of those power stations with excellent environmental conservation measures will further enhance the emission reduction effect. The improved thermal efficiency of power stations will postpone the construction of new power stations to meet the increased power demand in the coming years, reducing any adverse impacts on the natural environment. The operation of a power station also produces various types of waste and waste water. As the amount of such waste can be reduced in proportion to the reduced operating hours, a significant improvement in the environmental aspect can be expected to result.

(2) Economic Impacts Fuel and O & M account for a large proportion of the expenditure of a power station and of the MEPE. Fuel oil in particular is procured from outside, resulting in a high unit power generation cost. With the implementation of the Project, the preferential operation of power stations with a high thermal efficiency can be conducted as described in (1) above, substantially reducing the fuel cost and miscellaneous expenses to improve the financial health of each power station as well as the MEPE. In addition, the generally stagnant economic activities in Myanmar in general and of the MEPE in particular due to a shortage of funds and other reasons will be boosted by the construction work under the Project, resulting in increased employment, the procurement of local materials and possibly an

6-1 increase of Myanmar ’s GDP.

(3) Social Impacts Planned power cuts are currently enforced in Myanmar due to the power supply shortage. The implementation of the Project will increase both the amount and the stability of power supply which will have a positive effect on the social and economic stability to benefit the public in Myanmar. Moreover, as power facilities form part of the social infrastructure, the improvement of these facilities will have far-reaching effects on society, including a positive impact on water supply, road transport, school education and many other areas.

< Transmission and Distribution Loss Reduction >

6.2 Impacts on Environmental, Economic and Social Aspects (Transmission and Distribution Project)

(1) Environmental Impacts The reduction of the transmission loss in the whole system not only reduces the GHG emission from thermal power stations but also reduces the emission of other substances, such as SOx, NOx, soot and dust, etc. This effect is further enhanced if a power station(s) with poor efficiency is enable to be suspended or retired. The operation of power station also produces various types of waste and draining water. As transmission and distribution facilities do not produce such waste in association with their operation, they are highly advantageous in environmental aspects.

(2) Economic Impacts Economic activities in Myanmar are currently stagnant mainly due to the fund shortage of the government and MEPE. The construction work of the Project will boost aspects of employment, procurement of local materials, the GDP of Myanmar. In particular, the proportions of locally procured materials and labor in the transmission and distribution line construction work are higher than those for thermal power station construction work, greatly contributing to the vitalization of local economy. A power system expansion plan is closely related to the medium to long-term demand forecast. The present level of the transmission loss of more than 30%, including non-technical loss, means an extremely large fluctuation risk in terms of the demand forecast and facility development planning. If the spread of a transmission loss reduction project enables to reduce such loss, the demand forecast in medium to long-term range will be more accurately conducted, contributing to the reasonableness of reserve of generating facilities. In the future, the reasonableness of reserve power will enable the

6-2 establishment of a sound and more economical power system.

(3) Social Impacts When the spread of a transmission loss reduction project achieves a reduction of the technical loss to a certain extent, the real amount of non-technical loss can be identified, which makes it easier to find a method to reduce non-technical loss and to set targets for the non-technical loss reduction.

6-3 CONCLUSION Conclusion

The Study conducted by the TEPSCO Study Team members from September, 1999 to August, 2000 has found that the electricity supply situation in Myanmar is extremely critical, requiring the swift development of power resources. As the country ’s power demand far exceeds the available generation capacity, planned load shedding by region as well as limited power supply to large consumers at certain hours are currently in place. Many large consumers, such as hotels and factories, are surviving this situation by using their own generators.

Many feasibility studies have been conducted or are currently in progress in regard to power generation development, transmission and distribution system development, power system improvement. As the economic aid of donor countries has been frozen, these projects have not reached the stage of concrete implementation, failing to solve the power supply shortage.

The purpose of the project, to improve power loss and reduce of the greenhouse gas emission, is the realization of CDM between both countries. The Study aims at improving the poor operating efficiency of the existing gas turbine units and the transmission and distribution system and at reducing the electricity loss from generation to distribution. Unlike the construction of a major new power station, the planned improvement work can be implemented in a short period of time at a relatively low cost. It is, therefore, believed that the project proposed by the Study can be implemented with little difficulty.

The implementation of the project is expected to have the following effects.

• Increase of the generation capacity by some 86 MW with a 17 % improvement of efficiency.

• Reduction of the transmission and distribution loss by some 15 MW with a 7 % loss reduction .

The following volumes of greenhouse gas emission will be reduced by the reduced electricity loss.

• Improvement of power stations: approximately 10,150 Kt-C02 over a 25 year period.

• Improvement of distribution lines: approximately 771 Kt-C02 over a 25 year period.

This will help to ease the power supply shortage and will also contribute to the mitigation of global warming.

1 The Government of Myanmar has expressed strong interest in the project, hoping for its realization as soon as possible.

In order that Project is approval as yen loan smoothly and it is execute, our company prepares a request inside or outside of Japan.

• From the point of view that this project aims at greenhouse gas emission reduction, we will request to intend as environment yen loan from Japan's side.

• In Myanmar, a meaning of greenhouse gas reduction, necessity are not understood. Therefore, an organization for a greenhouse gas reduction project in Myanmar is done first, PR for performance, necessity in the event that it was execution is necessary.

• MEPE has treated this Project with high priority. Moreover, it has a strong desire to see the early implementation of the Project.

The subject issues for the power system development project that has been brought into focus by the implementation of the present Study are as follows.

• Re-commencement of economic aid by donor countries (democratization)

• Stable supply of low cost fuel and review of the electricity tariff to establish a sound management base for the MEPE (strong finance)

• Introduction of measures designed to minimize non-technical loss (power theft)

So it is considered that the project is realized early on to solve of the above mentions.

In order that the project is approved as yen loan smoothly, in order that it is recognized, TEPSCO will adjust in inland and foreign countries.

Finally, we would like to express our utmost gratitude to the staff members of the MOEP, the MEPE and other organizations who have kindly assisted the Study Team in the implementation of the Study.

2 APPENDIX APPENDIX-1 Calculation Result of 132-33kV System without Projects

******** 1 QOpercer Ml=1 .OOOC ********

[Node Information] CODE V V ANGLE Pgen SC (kV) (%) (degree) (%) (%) (%) (%) (*) THAZI 149.42 113.2 0 1043.74 609.17 0 0 0 KINDA 144.21 109.25 -1.408 200 100 0 0 0 APL 134.39 101.81 -4.503 0 0 0 0 0 132kV Load MDY 132.94 100.71 -5.29 0 0 0 0 0 SDWG 134.58 101.95 -4.361 160 80 130 75 0 130 75 MDY80S 33.7 102.13 -9.083 0 0 0 0 208.62 IZ 31.99 96.93 -10.069 0 0 0 0 0 TF 31.73 96.15 -10.152 0 0 0 0 0 MR 31.59 96.73 -10.197 0 0 0 0 0 59THN 33.67 102.04 -9.103 0 0 0 0 0 59TH 31.94 96.8 -8.884 0 0 0 0 0 65TH 32.72 99.14 -9.899 0 0 0 0 0 SH 32.89 99.68 -9.259 0 0 0 0 0 76MO 33.55 101.65 -9.115 0 0 0 0 0 HZ 32.75 99.24 -9.267 0 0 0 0 0 ND 32.74 99.22 -9.269 0 0 0 0 0 MDY303S 33.61 101.84 -7.178 0 0 0 0 155.57 MG 33.28 100.84 -7.342 0 0 0 0 0 APL30S 33.3 100.9 -4.899 0 0 0 0 0 MYPN 32.99 99.98 -5.098 0 0 0 0 0 PTG 32.89 99.68 -5.087 0 0 0 0 0 11kV Load MYP 31.61 95.78 -6.097 0 0 0 0 0 76MN 32.32 97.93 -10.273 0 0 0 0 0 MDY301S 11.12 101.11 -8.344 0 0 136.5 89.72 0 1154.14 721.68 APL18S 11.24 102.15 -8.096 0 0 120.26 77.33 0 IZS 11.09 100.79 -14.726 0 0 122.51 78.31 0 TFS 11.34 103.13 -13.281 0 0 20.16 10.08 0 MRS 11.29 102.65 -13.354 0 0 20.16 10.08 0 59THS 10.15 92.31 -17.956 0 0 102.5 72.07 0 65TH1S 11.17 101.53 -13.403 0 0 12.97 8.68 0 65TH2S 11.11 101.03 -15.474 0 0 20.46 13.21 0 SH7S 11.09 100.84 -12.476 0 0 74.98 40.98 0 SH5S 11.16 101.45 -11.893 0 0 41.53 23.69 0 76MS 11.09 100.85 -14.319 0 0 70.22 38.36 0 HZS 11.2 101.82 -15.35 0 0 172.77 102.89 0 NDS 11.26 102.39 -10.66 0 0 10.08 6.67 0 MGS 10.81 98.29 -12.774 0 0 125.53 80.11 0 PTGS 10.47 95.18 -14.487 0 0 20.66 13.95 0 MYP3S 10.87 98.8 -7.546 0 0 18.28 12.15 0 MYP5S 10.83 98.46 -11.236 0 0 64.57 43.4 0 TOTAL 1403.74 789.17 1284.14 796.68 364.2

[Branch Informatio CODE NF NT P(NF-» GKNF-» P(->NT) Q(->NT) B1 THAZI KINDA 350.3 212.9 343.4 210.4 6.95 2.51 75.03 110.2 B2 KINDA APL 543.4 310.4 622 276.3 21.33 34.1 B3 THAZI MDY 693.4 396.2 648.7 315 44.69 81.29 B4 MDY APL -320.5 -107.4 -322.6 -108.3 2.03 0.92 B5 APL SDWG -30 -13.6 -30 -5 0.03 -8.62 B6 MDY80S IZ 171.4 126.6 164.8 117.4 6.69 9.15 27.65 25.59 B7 IZ TF 41 23.4 40.7 23.2 0.3 0.2 B8 TF MR 20.4 11.6 20.3 11.6 0.08 0.02 B9 MDY80S 59THN 218.3 183.3 218.1 183 0.14 0.25 B10 59THN 59TH 110.8 106.7 104.7 101.8 6.07 4.97 B11 59THN 65TH 107.3 76.3 105.3 72.8 2.02 3.5 B12 MDY80S SH 165.3 111.3 161.6 110.1 3.64 1.17 B13 MDY80S 76MO 144.2 99.6 143.6 99.5 0.62 0.09 B14 76MO HZ 143.6 99.5 140.4 99 3.15 0.53 B15 HZ ND 10.1 6.8 10.1 7.1 0 -0.27 B16 HZ SH -44.1 -38.4 -44.2 -36.7 0.19 -1.7 B17 MDY303S MG 127.8 100.3 126.8 99 0.98 1.33 B18 APL30S MYPN 108 91.2 107.3 90 0.67 1.17 B19 MYPN PTG 21.2 20 21.1 19.9 0.07 0.03 B20 MYPN MYP 86.2 70 83.7 65.8 2.46 4.2 B21 65TH 76MN 71.3 46.3 70.7 45.4 0.57 0.95 T1 MDY MDY80S 703.1 371.3 699.1 312.1 3.91 59.16 7 88.92 T2 MDY MDY301S 138 101.6 136.6 89.7 1.47 11.84 » 132/33KV 132/33kV T3 MDY MDY303S 128.3 -50.5 127.8 -55.3 0.46 4.8 4.85 65.53 T4 APL APL30S 108.5 92.8 108 91.2 0.48 1.57 132/11 kV 132/11kV T5 APL APL18S 120.9 88.9 120.3 77.3 0.68 11.55 2.15 23.39 T6 IZ IZS 123.8 94 122.5 78.3 1.24 15.72 * 9.9 131.97 T7 TF TFS 20.3 11.6 20.2 10.1 0.15 1.49 T8 MR MRS 20.3 11.6 20.2 10.1 0.15 1.5 T9 59TH 59THS 104.7 101.8 102.5 72.1 2.23 29.68 * T10 65TH 65TH1S 13.1 10 13 8.7 0.16 1.3 » T11 65TH 65TH2S 20.8 16.5 20.5 13.2 0.37 3.29 * T12 SH SH7S 75.6 47 75 41 0.57 5.97 * T13 SH SH5S 41.8 26.4 41.5 23.7 0.29 2.76 T14 76MN 76MS 70.7 46.4 70.2 38.4 0.52 7.01 * T15 HZ HZS 174.3 130.6 172.8 102.9 1.56 27.74 * T16 ND NDS 10.1 7.1 10.1 6.7 0.06 0.38 T17 MG MGS 126.8 99 125.5 80.1 1.3 18.85 * T18 PTG PTGS 21.1 19.9 20.7 13.9 0.43 5.99 * T19 MYP MYP3S 18.4 12.9 18.3 12.2 0.09 0.72 T20 MYP MYP5S 65.4 53 64.6 43.4 0.78 9.57 * TOTAL 119.6 356.7

[Loss summarydjnit:*'] Mi Pg PI Total Rate Vmin[Nod 1 1403.7 1284.1 102.67 15.46 1.47 119.59 8.52 92.31 [59T

APPENDIX-1 APPENDIX-1 Calculation Result of 132-33kV System without Projects

132kV Une 132/33.11kV Tr 33kVLine 33/11kV Tr loss total

27.65 131.97 119.58 356.68

Breakdown of 132kV Tr 132/33kV Tr 132/HkV Tr

65.53

11kV Load Total A 1154.14 * 115.414 kW

Mandalay S/S 11 kV Load of 132/11 kV Tr 136.5 * 13.650 kW Aungoinlae S/S 11kV Load of 132/11kV 1 120.26 % 12.026 kW 132/11kV Transformer Load Total B 256.76 % 25.676 kW

11kV Node i o*d from 33/1 IkVTr System C—A~B 897.38 % 89.738 kW without Project Incoming Outgoing Loss Rate kW kW kW % 132kV Une 127.372 119.869 7.503 5.89% 132kV Tr Total 119.869 119.169 700 0.58% Breakdown 132/11kV Tr 25.891 25.676 215 0.83% 132/33kV Tr 93.978 93,493 485 0.52% 33kV Une 93.493 90.728 2.765 2.96% 33/11kV Tr 90.728 89.738 990 1.09%

APPENDIX-2 APPENDIX 2 Summary of Calculation Result of llkV Systems without Projects

[Loss summary(Unit:%)] FILE Mi Pg PI Lline Lcopp Lcore Total Rate Sa11 Mandlayl 1.68 326 299 21.76 4.45 0.82 27.03 8.29 Sa12 Mandlay2 1.68 331.2 303.9 22.22 4.21 0.91 27.33 8.25 Sa13 Mandlay3 1.68 329.7 295.6 29 4.25 0.94 34.19 10.37 Sa14 Amarapura 1.68 281.6 234.5 42.8 3.99 0.37 47.16 16.75 Sa15 Kume 1.68 96.4 94 0.9 0.61 0.9 2.41 2.5 Sa16 77 1.68 172.4 169.5 0.68 2.22 0.27 3.17 1.84 Sa17 77/36 1.68 251.3 242.5 5.55 2.35 0.75 8.65 3.44 Sa18 Baudigone 1.68 184.3 176.9 5.02 1.21 1.13 7.35 3.99 Sa19 University 1.68 94.3 92.3 0.58 0.91 0.51 2.01 2.13 Sa20 Zaycho 1.68 414.7 403.2 5.96 4.23 1.16 11.34 2.73 Sa21 Hospital 1.68 339.8 332.1 3.45 3.17 1.09 7.71 2.27 Sa22 Central Fire Brigade 1.68 276.5 270.1 3.02 2.39 1 6.42 2.32 Sa23 China Town 1.68 203.2 198.6 2 1.75 0.79 4.54 2.23 Sa24 Mingala Market 1.68 493.6 476 10.56 5.82 1.13 17.5 3.55 Sa25 Feeder 1 1.68 40.8 40.1 0.12 0.3 0.2 0.63 1.54 Sa26 Feeder 2 1.68 60 58.7 0.27 0.8 0.26 1.33 2.21 Sa27 26th Street 1.68 202.9 192.1 7.89 2.26 0.64 10.8 5.32 Sa28 22nd Street 1.68 351.1 324.7 22.14 3.71 0.66 26.52 7.55 Sa29 Myoma 1.68 279.8 266.6 9.68 2.89 0.62 13.19 4.71 Sa30 Water Supply 1.68 421.5 403.8 12.56 4.3 0.91 17.78 4.22 Sa31 Shorebund 1.68 185.8 179.1 4.89 1.09 0.8 6.78 3.65 Sa32 Turbine 1.68 273.6 268.7 1.77 2.38 0.68 4.83 1.77 Sa33 Central 1.68 290.4 282.8 3.16 3.84 0.59 7.59 2.61 Sa34 Mandalay Hill 1.68 388.4 377.3 6.2 3.72 0.93 10.86 2.8 Sa35 Booster Pump 1.68 27 26.5 0.01 0.37 0.05 0.43 1.6 Sa36 Industrial Zone F1 1.68 53.8 51.6 0.47 0.29 1.58 2.34 4.35 Sa37 Industrial Zone F2 1.68 135.1 130.4 1.43 1.11 2.12 4.66 3.45 Sa38 Industrial Zone F3 1.68 552.6 484.2 60.43 4.66 3.08 68.17 12.34 Sa39 Industrial Zone F4 1.68 469.7 427.4 35.34 4.69 2.21 42.24 8.99 Sa40 Industrial Zone F5 1.68 13.8 12.4 0.03 0.06 1.38 1.48 10.67 Sa41 62 nd Street 1.68 330 295.9 28.76 4.72 0.67 34.14 10.35 Sa42 21 Mile 1.68 694.9 384.2 301.50 8.72 0.48 310.70 44.71 Sa43 Aungpinlae(1 ) 1.68 129.7 126 2.02 1.45 0.59 4.06 3.13 Sa44 Aungpinlae(2) 1.68 204.6 187.9 13.58 2.37 0.76 16.71 8.17 Sa45 Patheingyi 1.68 206.6 192.4 10.28 3.4 0.47 14.15 6.85 Sa46 Obo 1.68 85.5 81.6 2.03 0.9 0.92 3.86 4.51 Sa47 Beer 1.68 97.3 94.3 1.93 0.91 0.17 3.01 3.09 Sa48 Nandwin 1.68 302.6 275.9 22.18 3.94 0.53 26.65 8.81 Sa49 Taung Pyoan 1.68 122.9 114.5 6.36 1.65 0.31 8.33 6.78 Sa50 MYP-Nanshae 1.68 220.3 213.3 4.25 1.6 1.05 6.91 3.14 Sa51 APL-Nanshae 1.68 711.1 586.4 111.42 12.06 1.21 124.69 17.53 Sa5 2 MIT 1.68 150.2 138.5 9.31 2.03 0.36 11.7 7.79 Sa53 Wakingone 1.68 341.3 315.9 20.69 3.76 0.91 25.36 7.43 sum 11138.27 10121.4 854.202 125.54 36.91 1016.71 9.13

Breakdown Source 132/11kV Transformer 2567.5 2267.8 258.1 35.36 6.42 299.87 11.68 Source 132/33kV Transformer 8570.772 7853.6 596.102 90.18 30.49 716.842 8.36 Total 11138.27 10121.4 854.202 125.54 36.91 1016.71 9.13

APPENDIX-3 APPENDIX 2 Summary of Calculation Result of llkV Systems without Projects

without Project Incoming Outgoing Loss Rate kW kW kW % 11 kV Line 111,381 102,839 8,542 7.67% 11/0.4RV Tr 102,839 101,214 1,625 1.58% Total 111,381 101,214 10,167 9.13%

Breakdown Incoming Outgoing Loss Rate kW kW kW % Source 132/11 kV Transformer 11 kV Line 25,677 23,096 2,581 10.05% 11/0.4kV Tr 23,096 22.678 418 1.81% subtotal 25,677 22,678 2,999 11.68% Source 132/33kV Transformer 11 kV Line 85,704 79,743 5,961 6.96% 11/0.4kVTr 79,743 78,536 1,207 1.51% subtotal 85,704 78,536 7,168 8.36%

total 111,381 101,214 10,167 9.13%

APPENDIX-4 APPENDIX 3 Summary of Calculation Result of 400VSystems without Projects

Ps(kW) Line Loss(kW) Rate(%) SA12- [LV M82STotal] 406.8 106.9 26.28 SA13- [LV M81 STotal] 317.76 35.09 11.04 SA16- [LV M43STotal] 228.02 28.34 12.43 SA16- [LV M44STotal] 565.67 208.87 36.92 SA16- [LV M45STotal] 387.24 83.57 21.58 SA16- [LV M47STotal] 163.07 7.9 4.84 SA16- [LV M46STotal] 350.93 58.25 16.6 SA17- [LV M30STotal] 471.05 82.43 17.5 SA17- [LV M31 STotal] 304.14 36.85 12.12 SA17- [LV M34STotal] 314.26 97.85 31.14 SA17- [LV M35STotal] 263.98 35.83 13.57 SA17- [LV M37STotal] 569.52 101.75 17.87 SA18- [LV M56STotal] 242.68 18.84 7.76 SA18- [LV M58STotal] 20.95 0.09 0.45 SA18- [LV M59STotal] 95.33 11.68 12.25 SA18- [LV MGOSTotal] 34.57 1.31 3.79 SA18- [LV M61 STotal] 15.71 0.3 1.89 SA18- [LV M62STotal] 97.77 36.14 36.97 SA18- [LV M63STotal] 211.25 22.93 10.86 SA18- [LV M64STotal] 127.1 20.1 15.81 SA18- [LV M65STotal] 263.63 28.78 10.92 SA18- [LV M66STotal] 160.62 12.02 7.48 SA18- [LV M68STotal] 67.39 7.12 10.57 SA18- [LV M69STotal] 63.9 6.78 10.6 SA18- [LV M71 STotal] 150.15 13.9 9.26 SA18- [LV M78STotal] 18.86 0.27 1.42 SA18- [LV M79STotal] 82.06 5.48 6.68 SA18- [LV MSOSTotal] 11.87 0.65 5.44 SA19- [LV M48STotal] 173.89 50.5 29.04 SA19- [LV M49STotal] 399.81 39.18 9.8 SA19- [LV MSOSTotal] 54.47 5.39 9.9 SA19- [LV MS 1 STotal] 80.31 5.51 6.86 SA19- [LV M52STotal] 42.95 1.51 3.52 SA19- [LV MSSSTotal] 23.4 0.33 1.4 SA19- [LV M54STotal] 3.84 0.09 2.39 SA19- [LV MSSSTotal] 30.73 0.59 1.91 SA20- [LV C51 STotal] 420.76 121.55 28.89 SA20- [LV C71 STotal] 105.45 3.77 3.58 SA20- [LV C107STotal] 659.95 199.82 30.28 SA21 • [LV C113STotal] 510.15 47.48 9.31 SA21 • [LV C112STotal] 378.51 43.58 11.51 SA21 • [LV C126STotal] 305.53 29.73 9.73 SA21 ■ [LV C131 STotal] 398.07 139.37 35.01 SA22- [LV CSSSTotal] 188.56 9.75 5.17 SA22- [LV C57 STotal] 343.94 22.74 6.61 SA22- [LV C68STotal] 190.3 9.55 5.02 SA22- [LV C74STotal] 84.15 0.37 0.44 SA22- [LV C54STotal] 285.98 12.92 4.52 SA22- [LV C79STotal] 432.99 56.84 13.13

APPENDIX-5 APPENDIX 3 Summary of Calculation Result of 400VSystems without Projects

Ps(kW) Line Loss(kW) Rate(%) SA22- [LV C95STotal] 419.02 44.21 10.55 SA23- [LV C91 STotal] 453.94 84.31 18.57 SA23- [LV C82STotal] 265.73 7.58 2.85 SA23- [LV C84STotal] 566.72 139.92 24.69 SA23- [LV C64STotal] 239.19 7.38 3.09 SA24- [LV C109STotal] 393.53 231.07 58.72 SA24- [LV C99STotal] 420.76 35.01 8.32 SA24- [LV C110STotal] 509.46 120.29 23.61 SA24- [LV C127STotal] 598.85 132.66 22.15 SA24- [LV C118STotal] 445.21 80.06 17.98 SA24- [LV C129 STotal] 338.71 71.26 21.04 SA24- [LV C116STotal] 429.49 66.31 15.44 SA29- [LV C9STotal] 317.76 50.7 15.95 SA29* [LV CIOSTotal] 393.53 117.03 29.74 SA29- [LV CSSTotal] 226.97 11.4 5.02 SA29- [LV C7STotal] 342.2 77.56 22.66 SA29- [LV C11 STotal] 129.2 6.01 4.65 SA29- [LV 021 STotal] 300.3 81.35 27.09 SA29- [LV C24STotal] 338.71 45.41 13.41 SA29- [LV C37STotal] 279.35 14.7 5.26 SA29- [LV 042STotal] 275.85 11.81 4.28 SA30- [LV 04 STotal] 239.19 45.27 18.93 SA31 • [LV M2STotal] 307.28 30.37 9.88 SA31 • [LV MSSTotal] 188.91 13.53 7.16 SA31- [LV M7STotal] 20.95 0.81 3.88 SA31- [LV MSSTotal] 59.71 6.18 10.35 SA31 • [LV M9STotal] 70.53 4.77 6.76 SA31- [LV MIOSTotal] 219.98 29.49 13.4 SA31 • [LV M11 STotal] 247.92 38.91 15.69 SA31- [LV M12STotal] 60.06 5.66 9.42 SA31 • [LV M13STotal] 244.43 73.25 29.97 SA31- [LV M14STotal] 217.19 38.31 17.64 SA31 • [LV M17 STotal] 6.63 0.04 0.64 SA32- [LV M18STotal] 547.17 149.85 27.39 SA32- [LV M19 STotal] 262.58 33.04 12.58 SA32- [LV M21 STotal] 485.36 71.52 14.73 SA32- [LV M23STotal] 318.8 28.86 9.05 SA32- [LV M24STotal] 272.71 101.13 37.08 SA32- [LV M25 STotal] 221.03 43.59 19.72 SA32- [LV M26STotal] 260.84 26 9.97 SA33- [LV 031 STotal] 443.46 134.95 30.43 SA33- [LV C32STotal] 125.71 7.06 5.61 SA33- [LV C33STotal] 314.26 40.7 12.95 SA33- [LV C28STotal] 579.64 77.54 13.38 SA33- [LV C20STotal] 317.76 42.72 13.44 SA33- [LV C27STotal] 426 75.66 17.76 SA33- [LV C26STotal] 426 35.61 8.36 SA34- [LV C6STotal] 684.4 337.97 49.38 SA34- [LV C18STotal] 537.74 103.82 19.31

APPENDIX-6 APPENDIX 3 Summary of Calculation Result of 400VSystems without Projects

Ps(kW) Line Loss(kW) Rate(%) SA34- [LV C19STotal] 219.98 15.24 6.93 SA34- [LV C62STotal] 587.32 127.05 21.63 SA34- [LV C45 STotal] 494.09 54.37 11 SA34- [LV C43STotal] 525.52 113.55 21.61 SA44- [LV M83STotal] 20.95 0.14 0.65 SA44- [LV M84STotal] 41.9 0.59 1.41 SA53- [LV C159STotal] 322.99 341.81 105.82 SA53- [LV C157STotal] 89.04 4.02 4.52 SA53- [LV C156STotal] 445.21 110.43 24.8 SA53- [LV C154STotal] 291.57 29.88 10.25 SA53- [LV C153STotal] 387.94 30.33 7.82 SA53- [LV C152STotal] 326.14 70.2 21.53 SA53- [LV C138STotal] 300.3 24.84 8.27 SA53- [LV C140STotal] 391.08 86.71 22.17

Total 31354.77 5912.39 18.86

APPENDIX-7 APPENDIX 4 Calculation Result of 132-33kV System with Project

********* 10Opercer Ml=1.000C ********

[Node Informatio CODE V V ANGLE Pgen Qgen Road Qload SC (kV) i%) (degree) (X) (X) (X) (X) (X) THAZI 144.54 109.5 0 934.07 211.38 0 0 0 KINDA 141.89 107.49 -1.712 200 100 0 0 0 APL 135.26 102.47 -5.146 0 0 0 0 0 132kV Lo; MDY 133.94 101.47 -5,654 0 0 0 0 0 Road Qload SDWG 135.45 102.61 -5,006 160 80 130 75 0 I 130 MDY80S 33.5 101.53 -8.889 0 0 0 0 206.15 IZ 32.69 99.05 -9.457 0 0 0 0 0 TF 32.43 98.28 -9.537 0 0 0 0 0 MR 32.3 97.88 -9.58 0 0 0 0 0 59THN 33.49 101.48 -8.903 0 0 0 0 0 59TH 33.32 100.97 -8.927 0 0 0 0 0 SH 32.69 99.05 -9.067 0 0 0 0 0 76MO 33.34 101.04 -8.922 0 0 0 0 0 HZ 32.54 98.61 -9.074 0 0 0 0 0 ND 32.53 98.59 -9.076 0 0 0 0 0 MDY303S 33.7 102.12 -8 0 0 0 0 156.43 MG 33.47 101.43 -8.128 0 0 0 0 0 APL30S 33.66 102 -6.373 0 0 0 0 208.1 MYPN 33.42 101.28 -6.553 0 0 0 0 0 PTG 33.28 100.83 -6.568 0 0 0 0 0 65TH 32.48 98.42 -9.771 0 0 0 0 0 76MN 32.08 97.2 -10.151 0 0 0 0 0 NIZ 33.24 100.72 -9.285 0 0 0 0 0 NA 33.14 100.44 -9.362 0 0 0 0 0 NS 33.2 100.61 -7.024 0 0 0 0 0 MYPX2 33.02 100.07 -7.289 0 0 0 0 0 MYP 32.87 99.6 -7.52 0 0 0 0 0 MYPX1 32,83 99.48 -7.01 0 0 0 0 0 NND 32.6 98.79 -7.19 0 0 0 0 0 NAP 33.45 101.36 -6.673 0 0 0 0 0 N21 32.86 99.58 -7.514 0 0 0 0 0 NAR 33.45 101.37 -8.241 0 0 0 0 0 NM 33.46 101.4 -8.209 0 0 0 0 0 65THX1 32.63 98.89 -9.631 0 0 0 0 0 N65 32.62 98.86 -9.642 0 0 0 0 0 65THX2 32.61 98.82 -9.651 0 0 0 0 0 NW 33.58 101.76 -6.421 0 0 0 0 0 NP 33.19 100.59 -6.578 0 0 0 0 0 11 kV Loac NMT 33.48 101.44 -6.523 0 0 0 0 0 Qload MDY301S 10.94 99.5 -6.943 0 0 57.24 38.2 0 676.58 -70.28 APL18S 11.21 101.95 -5.587 0 0 14.81 8.78 0 IZS 11.22 102.01 -11.081 0 0 44.21 28.2 0 TFS 10.98 99.83 -12.699 0 0 20.16 10.08 0 MRS 10.93 99.38 -12.769 0 0 20.16 10.08 0 59THS 1124 102.21 -9.848 0 0 12.05 8.24 0 65TH1S 11.08 100.7 -13.329 0 0 12.97 8.68 0 65TH2S 11.28 102.58 -12.257 0 0 9.21 5.95 0 SH7S 11.02 100.15 -12.326 0 0 74.98 40.98 0 SH5S 11.08 100.77 -11.735 0 0 41.53 23.69 0 76MS 11.32 102.95 -14.144 0 0 70.22 38.36 0 HZS 11.12 101.05 -15.243 0 0 172.77 102.89 0 NDS 11.19 101.71 -10.485 0 0 10.08 6.67 0 MGS 11.16 101.48 -11.897 0 0 90.45 56.64 0 PTGS 11.2 101.83 -9.394 0 0 25.9 17.57 0 MYP3S 11.02 100.21 -8.894 0 0 18.28 12.15 0 MYP5S 11.14 101.31 -9.936 0 0 32.49 21.44 0 NIZS 11.07 100.63 -11.153 0 0 49.59 33.01 0 NAS 11.1 100.88 -10.864 0 0 19.98 13.21 0 NNDS 11.1 100.93 -9.255 0 0 54 37.07 0 NARS 11.17 101.51 -9.934 0 0 34.4 23.17 0 NMS 11.17 101.52 -9.97 0 0 35.74 23.19 0 N65S 10.93 99.35 -11.066 0 0 18.39 12.5 0 NAPS 11.2 101.78 -8.171 0 0 10.19 6.76 0 NWS 11.24 102.2 -8.144 0 0 23.35 13.31 0 NPS 11.13 101.14 -7.944 0 0 9.18 6.28 0 NMTS 11.22 102.01 -7.913 0 0 18.91 12.79 0 NSS 11 99.98 -9.185 0 0 42.99 29.68 0 N21S 11.21 101.88 -9.49 0 0 39.63 27.01 0 TOTAL 1294.07 391.38 1213.86 751.58 570.69

[Branch Informatio CODE NF NT P(NF-» Q(NF-» P( ->NT) Q(->NT> Ross Ross B1 THAZI KINDA 316 40.2 311.6 42.9 4.38 -2.62 51.8 58.14 -23.23 -52.06 B2 KINDA APL 511.6 142.9 495.9 121.4 15.73 21.48 B3 THAZI MDY 618.1 171.1 587.6 121.7 30.48 49.49 B4 MDY APL -229.1 -124.4 -230.3 -122.9 1,18 -1.48 B5 APL SDWG -30 -13.7 -30 -5 0.03 -8.73 B6 MDY80S IZ 87 55.6 85.4 53.5 1.59 2.09 16.31 15.08 -11.34 -10.51 B7 IZ TF 41 23.4 40.7 23.2 0.28 0.19 B8 TF MR 20.4 11.6 20.3 11.6 0.08 0.01 B9 MDY80S 59THN 126.7 88.5 126.6 88.4 0.04 0.07 B10 59THN 59TH 12.2 8.5 12.1 8.5 0.06 -0.06 B12 MDY80S SH 165.3 111.7 161.6 110.4 3.69 1.24 B13 MDY80S 76MO 144.3 100 143.6 99.9 0.63 0.11 B14 76MO HZ 143.6 99.9 140.4 99.3 3.19 0.6 B15 HZ ND 10.1 6.8 10.1 7.1 0 -0.26 B16 HZ SH -44.1 -38.6 -44.3 -36.9 0.19 -1.67 B17 MDY303S MG 91.6 66.3 91.1 65.7 0.47 0.62 B18 APL30S MYPN 91.2 68.6 90.7 67.9 0.43 0.73 B19 MYPN PTG 35.5 26.3 35.4 26.2 0.15 0.09 B21 65TH 76MN 71.3 46.2 70.7 45.3 0.58 0.97 BX1 MDY80S NIZ 70.2 50.4 70 49.5 0.22 0.8 BX2 NIZ NA 20.1 14 20.1 14 0.04 0 BX3 APL30S NS 95 71.3 94.5 69.4 0.5 1.94 BX4 NS MYPX2 51.3 37.1 51.2 36.7 0.11 0.36 BX5 MYPX2 MYP 51.2 36.7 51.1 36.4 0.09 0.32 B20A MYPN MYPX1 55.2 41.6 54.5 40.6 0.66 1.04 BX6 MYPX1 NND 54.5 40.6 54.3 40.2 0.25 0.4

APPENDIX-8 APPENDIX 4 Calculation Result of 132-33kV System with Project

BX7 APL30S NAP 50.5 37.6 50.4 37.2 0.12 0.41 BX8 NAP N21 40.1 30 39.8 29.2 0.27 0.81 BX9 MDY303S NAR 34.7 25 34.6 24.8 0.16 0.22 BX10 MDY303S NM 36.1 25.1 35.9 24.9 0.16 0.21 B11A 59THN 65THX1 114.5 79.9 112.5 76.6 1.93 3.36 BX11 65THX1 N65 112.6 76.6 112.5 76.5 0.03 0.05 BX12 N65 65THX2 94 63.3 94 63.3 0.02 0.03 B11B 65THX2 65TH 94 63.3 93.8 62.8 0.25 0.44 BX13 APL30S NW 23.5 14.3 23.5 14.3 0.04 0.02 BX14 PTG NP 9.3 6.6 9.2 6.6 0.02 -0.05 BX16 APL30S NMT 19.1 13.5 19 13.5 0.07 -0.01 T1 MDY MDY80S 596.2 238.9 693.5 199.9 2.7 39.02 6.13 54.13 -1.87 -34.79 T2 MDY MDY301S 57.5 40.3 57.2 38.2 0.31 2.06 132/33kV 132/33kV T3 MDY MDY303S 163 -33.1 162.4 -40 0.6 6.89 4.72 51.91 -0.13 -13.62 T4 APL APL30S 280.7 3.3 279.3 -2.7 1.42 6 132/11 kV 132/11kV T5 APL APL18S 14.9 8.9 14.8 8.8 0.1 0.16 0.41 2.22 -1.74 -21.17 T6 IZ IZS 44.4 30.1 44.2 28.2 0.2 1.89 6.94 83.08 -2.96 -48.89 T7 TF TFS 20.3 11.6 20.2 10.1 0.15 1.5 T8 MR MRS 20.3 11.6 20.2 10.1 0.16 1.52 T9 59TH 59THS 12.1 8.5 12 8.2 0.06 0.3 T10 65TH 65TH1S 13.1 10 13 8.7 0.16 1.32 T11 65TH 65TH2S 9.3 6.6 9.2 5.9 0.09 0.63 T12 SH SH7S 75.6 47 75 41 0.68 6.05 T13 SH SH5S 41.8 26.5 41.5 23.7 0.29 2.8 T14 76MN 76MS 70.7 45.3 70.2 38.4 0.52 6.91 T16 HZ HZS 174.4 131.1 172.8 102.9 1.58 28.16 T16 ND NDS 10.1 7.1 10.1 6.7 0.07 0.39 T17 MG MGS 91.1 65.7 90.4 56.6 0.66 9.08 T18 PTG PTGS 6.8 5.2 6.8 4.7 0.06 0.54 T19 MYP MYP3S 18.4 12.8 18.3 12.2 0.09 0.68 T20 MYP MYP5S 32.7 23.6 32.5 21.4 0.21 2.14 TX1 NIZ NIZS 49.8 35.5 49.6 33 0.26 2.52 TX2 NA NAS 20.1 14 20 13.2 0.1 0.81 TX3 NND NNDS 54.3 40.2 54 37.1 0.29 3.1 TX4 NAR NARS 34.6 24.8 34.4 23.2 0.17 1.59 TX5 NM NMS 35.9 24.9 35.7 23.2 0.18 1.68 TX6 N65 N65S 18.5 13.2 18.4 12.5 0.1 0.72 TX7 NAP NAPS 10.3 7.2 10.2 6.8 0.07 0.41 TX8 NW NWS 23.5 14.3 23.4 13.3 0.12 0.99 TX9 NP NPS 9.2 6.6 9.2 6.3 0.06 0.35 TX10 NMT NMTS 19 13.5 18.9 12.8 0.1 0.72 TX11 NS NSS 43.2 32.3 43 29.7 0.26 2.6 TX12 N21 N21S 39.8 29.2 39.6 27 0.21 2.17 TX13 PTG PTGS 19.3 14.4 19.1 12.9 0.16 1.61 TOTAL 80.2 210.5

[l OSR summaryO Mi pg PI Uine Rate Vmin[Nod 1 1294.1 1213.9 68.13 10.01 2.06 80.19 6.2 97.20176k

[Unit : *1 132kV Line 132/33.11kV Tr 33kVLine 33/11kV Tr loss total PI oss (Moss Ross Ross 51.8 58.14 5.13 54.13 16.31 16.08 6.94 83.08 80.18 210.43

-23.23 -52.06 -1.87 -34.79 -11.34 -10.511 -2.96 -48.89 -39.4 -146.25

Breakdown of 132kV Tr [Unit :*] 132/33kV Tr 132/11kV Tr Ross Ol oss Ross Qloss 4.72 51.91 0.41 2.22

I -0.13 -13.62 I -1.74 -21.iTI

111 kV Load Total A 1083.86 % 108,386 kW

Mandalay S/S 11kV Load of 132/11kV Tr 57.24 % 5.724 kW Aungpinlae S/S 11 kV Load of 132/11 kV T 14.81 % 1,481 kW Total B 72.05 * 7.205 kW

11 kV Node Load from 33/1 kVTr Svetem C=A~B 1011.81 % 101.181 kW

with Proiec Incoming Outgoing Loss Rate kW kW kW * 132kV Line 116.404 111.224 5.180 4.45* 132kV Tr Total 111.224 110.711 513 0.46* Breakdown 132/1IkV Tr 7.246 7.205 41 0.57* 132/33kV Tr 103.978 103.506 472 0.45* 33kV Line 103.506 101.875 1.631 1.58* 33/11kV Tr 101.875 101.181 694 0.68*

APPENDIX-9 APPENDIX 5 Summary of Calculation Result of llkV System with Projects

Mi Pg PI Uine Lcopp Lcore Total Rate

Sal 1 Mandlayl Mandlayl A 0 1.68 326 299 21.76 4.45 0.82 27.03 8.29

Sa11 Sd11 Mandlayl MancBayl b1 1.68 165.9 156.8 6.06 2.59 0.40 9.05 5.46 Sa11 Sd68 Mandlayl NAR-F1 b2 1.68 148.3 142.2 4.09 1.59 0.48 6.16 4.15 sub-total B=b1+b2 1 314.2 299 10.15 4.18 0.88 15.21 4.84

reduction R=A-B 2 11.8 0 11.61 0.27 -0.06 11.82

Sa12 Mandlay? Mandiay2 a1 1.68 331.2 303.9 22.22 4.21 0.91 27.33 8.25 Man<*ay3 a2 1.68 329.7 295.6 29.00 4.25 0.94 34.19 10.37 Sal 2 Sd12 Mandtoy2 sub-total A=a1+a2 0 660.9 599.5 51.22 8.46 1.85 61.52 9.31 Sal 2 Sd69 Mandlay2 MandlayZ b1 1.68 158.9 154.3 2.35 1.76 0.58 4.68 2.95 MandlayS b2 1.68 106.7 101.9 3.13 1.17 0.59 4.89 4.59 NM-F1 b3 1.68 357.4 343.3 8.56 4.56 0.86 13.98 3.91 sub-total B=b1+b2+b3 1 623 599.5 14.04 7.49 2.03 23.55 3.78 Sa13 Mandtoy3 reduction R=A-B 2 37.9 0 37.18 0.97 -0.18 37.97 Sa13 Sd13 MandUryS Sa13 Sd70 MandlayS Amarapura A 0 1.68 281.6 234.5 42.80 3.99 0.37 47.16 16.75

Amarapura b1 1.68 44.5 42.8 0.96 0.62 0.09 1.66 3.74 NAR-F1 b2 1.68 195.7 191.6 1.30 2.34 0.40 4.04 2.06 sub-total B=b1>b2 1 240.2 234.4 2.26 2.96 0.49 5.70 2.37 Sa14 Amarapura reduction R=A-B 2 41.4 0.1 40.54 1.03 -0.12 41.46 Sa14 Sd14 Amarapure Sa14 Sd67 Amarapura

26th Street a1 1.68 202.9 192.1 7.89 2.26 0.64 10.80 5.32 22nd Street a2 1.68 351.1 324.7 22.14 3.71 0.66 26.52 7.55 a3 1.68 302.6 275.9 22.18 3.94 0.53 26.65 8.81 Sa27 26th Street sub-total A-al +a2+a3 0 856.6 792.7 52.21 9.91 1.83 63.97 7.47 Sa28 22nd Street 26th Street b1 1.68 92 89.3 1.22 1.07 0.39 2.69 2.92 22nd Street b2 1.68 111.2 108.2 1.70 1.12 0.20 3.02 2.72 Sa27 Sd27 26th Street NND-F2 b3 1.68 499.7 487.1 5.93 5.58 1.09 12.60 2.52 Sa28 Sd28 22nd Street b4 1.68 70 68.4 0.65 0.77 0.18 1.60 2.29 Sa27,28 Sd66 26th & 22nd Street NND-F1 b5 1.68 40.4 39.7 0.16 0.38 0.13 0.67 1.67 sub-total B=b1*b2>b3+b- 1 813.3 792.7 9.66 8.92 1.99 20.58 2.53

reduction R=A-B 2 43.3 0 42.55 0.99 -0.16 43.39

Sa38 Industrial Zone F3 Industrial Zone F3 A 0 1.68 552.6 484.2 60.43 4.66 3.08 68.17 12.34

Sa38 Sd38 Industrial Zone F3 Industrial Zone F3 b1 1.68 239.3 231.9 4.02 1.32 1.90 7.24 3.03 Sa38 Sd63 Industrial Zone F3 NIZ-F3 b2 1.68 60.2 58.4 0.33 0.42 0.88 1.64 2.72 2.93 Sa38 Sd64 Industrial Zone F3 NA-F1 b3 1.68 199.7 193.9 3.30 1.89 0.66 5.85 sub-total B=b1+b2*b3 1 499.2 484.2 7.65 3.63 3.44 14.73 2.95

reduction R=A-B 2 53.4 0 52.78 1.03 -0.36 53.44

Sa39 Industrial Zone F4 Industrial Zone F4 A 0 1.68 469.7 427.4 35.34 4.69 2.21 42.24 8.99

Sa39 Sd61 Industrial Zone F4 MZ-F1 b1 1.68 328.6 322.5 1.13 3.30 1.66 6.09 1.85 1.98 Sa39 Sd62 Industrial Zone F4 NIZ-F2 b2 1.68 107.1 104.9 0.49 0.81 0.83 2.12 sub-total B=b1»b2 1 435.7 427.4 1.62 4.11 2.49 8.21 1.88

reduction R=A-B 2 34 0 33.72 0.58 -0.28 34.03

Sa41 62nd Street 62nd Street A 0 1.68 330 295.9 28.76 4.72 0.67 34.14 10.35

Sa41 Sd41 62nd Street 62nd Street b1 1.68 120.5 116.2 2.23 1.73 0.30 4.26 3.54 Sa41 Sd71 62nd Street N65-F1 b2 1.68 183.9 179.8 1.35 2.33 0.47 4.15 2.25 sub-total B=b1*b2 1 304.4 296 3.58 4.06 0.77 8.41 2.76

reduction R=A-B 2 25.6 -0.1 25.18 0.66 -0.10 25.73

Sa42 21 Mile 21 Mile A 0 1.68 694.9 384.2 301.50 8.72 0.48 310.70 44.71

12.05 3.04 Sa42 Sd42 21 Mile 21 Mile B 1 1.68 396.2 384.2 6.55 4.70 0.80

reduction R=A-B 2 298.7 0.0 294.95 4.02 -0.32 298.65

8.17 Sa44 Aungpinlae(2) Aungpinlae(2) A 0 1.68 204.6 187.9 13.58 2.37 0.76 16.71

4.07 4.42 Sa44 Sd44 Aungpmlae(2) Aungpin!ae(2) b1 1.68 92.1 88 2.67 0.96 0.44 2.02 Sa44 Sd72 Aungpinlee(2) NAP-F1 b2 1.68 101.9 99.8 0.50 1.17 0.38 2.06 sub-total B=b1 +b2 1 194 187.8 3.17 2.13 0.82 6.13 3.16

reduction R=A-B 2 10.6 0.1 10.41 0.24 -0.06 10.58

Sa45 Patheingyi Patheingyi A 0 1.68 206.6 192.4 10.28 3.40 0.47 14.15 6.85

3.36 Sa45 Sd46 Petheingyi Patheingyi b1 1.68 107 103.4 1.61 1.70 0.28 3.59 2.73 2.98 Sa45 Sd74 Patheingyi NP-F1 b2 1.68 91.8 89 1.06 1.46 0.22 sub-total B=b1+b2 1 198.8 192.4 2.67 3.16 0.50 6.32 3.18

reduction R=A-B 2 7.8 0 7.61 0.24 -0.03 7.83

Sa48

Sa48 Sd48 Sa48 Sd66

6.91 3.14 Sa50 MYP-Nanshae MYP-Nanshae A 0 1.68 220.3 213.3 4.25 1.60 1.05

0.60 2.35 1.78 Sa50 Sd50 MYP-Nanshae MYP-Nanshae b1 1.68 132.1 129.7 0.76 0.99 0.48 1.70 2.00 SaSO Sd78 MYP-Nanshae NS-F2 b2 1.68 85.3 83.6 0.65 0.57 sub-total B=b1+b2 1 217.4 213.3 1.41 1.56 1.08 4.05 1.86

APPENDIX-10 APPENDIX 5 Summary of Calculation Result of llkV System with Projects

Mi Pg PI Uine Lcopp Lcore Total Rate

reckiction R=A-B 2 2.9 0 2.84 0.04 -0.03 2.86

Sa51 APL-Nanshae APL-Nanshae A 0 1.68 711.1 586.4 111.42 12.06 1.21 124.69 17.53

Sa51 Sd51 APL-Nanshae APL-Nanshae b1 1.68 57.4 56.1 0.39 0.81 0.13 1.33 2.32 Sa51 Sd75 APL-Nanshae NMT-F2 b2 1.68 47.8 46.4 0.36 0.83 0.21 1.39 2.92 Sa51 Sd76 APL-Nanshae PTG-F2 b3 1.68 152 148.6 1.22 1.94 0.32 3.48 2.29 Sa51 Sd77 APL-Nanshae NS-FI b4 1.68 344.6 335.4 3.00 5.19 0.95 9.14 2.65 sub-total B=b1 ’ b2 * b3"* b- 1 601.8 586.5 4.97 8.77 1.61 15.34 2.55

reduction R=A-B 2 109.3 -0.1 106.45 3.29 -0.40 109.35

Sa52 MIT MIT A 0 1.68 150.2 138.5 9.31 2.03 0.36 11.70 7.79

Sa52 Sd52 MIT MIT B 1 1.68 141.3 138.5 0.67 1.78 0.41 2.85 2.02

reduction R=A-B 2 8.9 0 8.64 0.25 -0.05 8.85

Sa53 Wakingone Wakingone A 0 1.68 341.3 315.9 20.69 3.76 0.91 25.36 7.43

Sa53 Sd53 Wakingone Wakingone b1 1.68 90.7 88.5 1.02 0.85 0.27 2.14 2.36 Sa53 Sd73 Wakingone b2 1.68 233.5 227.3 2.92 2.49 0.75 6.16 2.64 sub-total B=bVh2 1 324.2 315.8 3.94 3.34 1.02 8.30 2.56

reduction R=A-B 2 17.1 0.1 16.75 0.42 -0.11 17.06

without projects summation of A 6006.4 5151.8 763.55 74.82 16.07 854.45 14.23 with projects summation of B 5303.7 5151.7 72.34 60.79 18.33 151.43 2.86 R=A-B summation of R 702.7 0.1 691.21 14.03 -2.26 703.02

Sal 5 Sa15 Kume Kume 3 1.68 96.4 94 0.90 0.61 0.90 2.41 2.50 Sa16 Sa16 77 77 3 1.68 172.4 169.5 0.68 2.22 0.27 3.17 1.84 Sa17 Sa17 77/36 77/36 3 1.68 251.3 242.5 5.55 2.35 0.75 8.65 3.44 Sa18 Sa18 Baucfeone Baudigone 3 1.68 184.3 176.9 5.02 1.21 1.13 7.35 3.99 Sa19 Sa19 University University 3 1.68 94.3 92.3 0.58 0.91 0.51 2.01 2.13 Sa20 Sa20 3 1.68 414.7 403.2 5.96 4.23 1.16 11.34 2.73 Sa21 Sa21 3 1.68 339.8 332.1 3.45 3.17 1.09 7.71 2.27 Sa22 Sa22 Central Fire Brigade Central Fire Brigade 3 1.68 276.5 270.1 3.02 2.39 1.00 6.42 2.32 Sa23 Sa23 China Town China Town 3 1.68 203.2 198.6 2.00 1.75 0.79 4.54 2.23 Sa24 Sa24 Mingala Market Mingala Market 3 1.68 493.6 476 10.56 5.82 1.13 17.50 3.55 Sa25 Sa25 3 1.68 40.8 40.1 0.12 0.30 0.20 0.63 1.54 Sa26 Sa26 3 1.68 60 58.7 0.27 0.80 0.26 1.33 2.21 Sa29 Sa29 3 1.68 279.8 266.6 9.68 2.89 0.62 13.19 4.71 Sa30 Sa30 Water Supply Water Supply 3 1.68 421.5 403.8 12.56 4.30 0.91 17.78 4.22 Sa31 Sa31 Shorebund Shorebund 3 1.68 185.8 179.1 4.89 1.09 0.80 6.78 3.65 Sa32 Sa32 Turbine 3 1.68 273.6 268.7 1.77 2.38 0.68 4.83 1.77 Sa33 Sa33 Central 3 1.68 290.4 282.8 3.16 3.84 0.59 7.59 2.61 Sa34 Sa34 Mandalay HBI Mandalay H»B 3 1.68 388.4 377.3 6.20 3.72 0.93 10.86 2.80 Sa35 Sa35 Booster Pump Booster Pump 3 1.68 27 26.5 0.01 0.37 0.05 0.43 1.60 Sa36 Sa36 Industrial Zone FI Industrial Zone F1 3 1.68 53.8 51.6 0.47 0.29 1.58 2.34 4.35 Sa37 Sa37 Industrial Zone F2 Industrial Zone F2 3 1.68 135.1 130.4 1.43 1.11 2.12 4.66 3.45 Sa40 Sa40 Industrial Zone F5 Industrial Zone F5 3 1.68 13.8 12.4 0.03 0.06 1.38 1.48 10.67 Sa43 Sa43 Aungpinlae(l) Aungpinlaed) 3 1.68 129.7 126 2.02 1 45 0.59 4.06 3.13 Sa46 Sa46 3 1.68 85.5 81.6 2.03 0.90 0.92 3.86 4.51 Sa47 Sa47 3 1.68 97.3 94.3 1.93 0.91 0.17 3.01 3.09 Sa49 Sa49 Taung Pyoan Taung Pyoan 3 1.68 122.9 114.5 6.36 1.65 0.31 8.33 6.78 other feeders N 5131.9 4969.6 90.65 50.72 20.84 162.26 3.16

without projects A*N 11138.3 10121.4 854.20 125.54 36.91 1016.71 9.13 with projects B+N 10435.6 10121.3 162.99 111.51 39.17 313.69 3.01 B-A -702.7 -0.1 -691.2 -14.0 2.3 -703.0

Breakdown with projects Source 132/11 kV Transformer 720.5 694.4 14.81 841 2.96 26.16 3.63 Source 132/33kV Transformer 9715.1 9426.9 148.2 103.1 36.2 287.5 2.96 Total 10435.6 10121.3 162.99 111.51 39.17 313.69 3.01

with Project Incoming Outgoing Fiate kW kW kW % 11kV Line 104.351 102.721 1,630 1.56% 11/0.4KV Tr 102,721 101,214 1,507 1.47% Total 104.351 101.214 3.137 3.01%

Breakdown Incoming Outgoing Loss Rate kW kW kW % Source 132/1 IkV Transformer 11kV Line 7.206 7.058 148 2.05% 11/0.4kV Tr 7.058 6,944 114 1.62% subtotal 7,206 6,944 262 3.64% Source 132/33kV Transformer 11kV Line 97.145 95,663 1.482 1.53% 11/0.4kV Tr 95,663 94,270 1,393 1.46% subtotal 97,145 94.270 2.875 2.96%

total 104.351 101.214 3.137 3.01%

APPENDIX-11 APPENDIX 6 Summary of Calculation Result of 400V Systems with Projects

Higher Voltage Introduction for LV Systems

FILE START DEST LINE TRFM LOG Open LOLD LNEW LRED BNFIT Construction COST(MU) NETB NODE NODE CODE CODE (km) Branch (kW) (kW) (kW) (MU) LINE TRFM Total (MU)

SB12 [M82S] N14 JA25N L300E 0.55 F1-9t 81 18 63 310 1 22 23 287 SB12 [M82S] N19 JA25N L250E 0.28 F2-2t 27 6 21 103 1 21 22 81 SB13 [M81S] N15 JA25N L125E 0.32 F2-5t 9 3 6 31 1 19 20 11 SB16 [M43S] N10 JA25N L200E 0.24 F1-7t 25 7 18 88 1 20 21 67 SB16 [M44S] N5 JA25N L500E 0.3 F1-1t 89 26 63 309 1 26 27 282 SB16 [M44S] N19 JA25N L250E 0.68 F2-2t 88 20 68 331 1 21 22 309 SB16 [M45S] N4 JA25N L500E 0.26 F1 —11 74 18 55 270 1 26 27 243 SB16 [M46S] N9 JA25N L250E 0.23 F2t 48 7 41 202 1 21 22 180 SB17 [M30S] N7 JA25N L400E 0.32 F1-2t 58 14 44 215 1 24 25 190 SB17 [M30S] N13 JA25N L180E 0.22 F2t 18 4 14 67 1 20 21 46 SB17 [M31S] N13 JA25N L315E 0.29 F1-2t 36 7 29 143 1 23 24 119 SB17 [M34S] N9 JA25N L500E 0.35 F1-3t 98 27 71 346 1 26 27 319 SB17 [M35S] N5 JA25N L200E 0.39 F1-2t 27 10 17 82 1 20 21 61 SB17 [M37S] N4 JA25N L500E 0.63 N2-1t 75 19 56 274 2 26 28 246 SB17 [M37S] N15 JA25N L250E 0.28 F3t 21 3 18 87 1 21 22 65 SB18 [M56S] N10 JA25N L250E 0.17 F1-4t 14 4 10 48 1 21 22 26 SB18 [M59S] N10 JA25N L75E 0.66 F1-4t 10 2 8 39 2 18 20 19 SB18 [M62S] N9 JA25N L180E 0.26 F1-2t 13 4 8 41 1 20 21 20 SB18 [M63S] N9 JA25N L125E 0.6 F1-6t 17 4 13 64 1 19 20 44 SB18 [M64S] N6 JA25N L300E 0.25 Fit 19 6 13 64 1 22 23 41 SB18 [M65S] N4 JA25N L500E 0.17 Fit 23 12 12 56 1 26 27 29 SB18 [M71S] N5 JA25N L150E 0.41 F1-2t 14 4 10 48 1 20 21 27 SB19 [M48S] N11 JA25N L150E 0.56 F1-5t 32 8 24 118 1 20 21 97 SB19 [M49S] N13 JA25N L300E 0.2 F1-8t 28 6 22 108 1 22 23 85 SB20 [C51S] N10 JA25N L750E 0.26 F1-2t 122 36 86 422 1 30 31 391 SB20 [C107S] N10 JA25N L1000E 0.35 F1-4t 175 45 130 636 1 35 36 600 SB20 [C107S] N23 UA25N L300E 0.26 F2t 20 4 17 81 1 22 23 58 SB21 [C113S] N4 JA25N L500E 0.14 Fit 24 10 14 70 1 26 27 43 SB21 [C113S] N12 JA25N L300E 0.16 F2-3t 29 6 23 113 1 22 23 90 SB21 [C112S] N9 JA25N L300E 0.21 F1-6t 45 17 28 138 1 22 23 115 SB21 [C126S] N5 JA25N L400E 0.18 F1-2t 33 10 23 112 1 24 25 87 SB21 [C131S] N8 JA25N L625E 0.61 F2t 136 19 118 575 1 28 29 546 SB22 [C57S] N2 JA25N L150E 0.28 Fit 15 4 11 54 1 20 21 33 SB22 [C57S] N6 JA25N L200E 0.17 F2-1t 14 5 9 45 1 20 21 24 SB22 [C54S] N9 JA25N L300E 0.08 F1-4t 13 5 8 40 1 22 23 17 SB 22 [C79S] N7 JA25N L400E 0.25 F2-1t 50 16 34 167 1 24 25 142 SB22 [C95S] NS JA25N L400E 0.33 F1-2t 35 9 26 128 1 24 25 103 SB22 [CSSS] N7 JA25N L250E 0.22 F2t 14 5 10 47 1 21 22 25 SB23 [C91S] NS JA25N L160E 0.31 F1-2t 25 9 16 79 1 20 21 58 SB23 [C91S] N9 JA25N L400E 0.43 F2t 67 13 54 263 1 24 25 238 SB23 [C84S] N13 JA25N L750E 0.33 F2-5t 138 23 115 561 1 30 31 530 SB24 [C109S] NS JA25N L500E 0.49 F1-2t 236 36 200 977 1 26 27 950 SB24 [C99S] N6 JA25N L160E 0.29 F1-2t 22 4 17 85 1 20 21 64 SB24 [C99S] N14 JA25N L400E 0.1 F2-2t 23 5 18 87 1 24 25 62 SB24 [C110S] N3 JA25N L160E 0.23 FI—It 18 3 16 77 1 20 21 56 SB24 [C110S] N11 JA25N L750E 0.26 F2t 122 21 100 490 1 30 31 459 SB24 [C127S] N3 JA25N L250E 0.19 Fit 12 3 9 46 1 21 22 24 SB24 [C127S] N12 JA25N L625E 0.16 F2-1t 78 22 56 273 1 28 29 244 SB24 [CM 8S] N13 JA25N L75E 0.18 Fit 11 1 9 46 1 18 19 27 SB24 [cues] N12 JA25N L400E 0.34 F2-5t 80 18 62 302 1 24 25 277 SB24 [C129S] N15 JA25N L500E 0.32 F1-6t 72 13 59 288 1 26 27 261 SB24 [C116S] N22 JA25N L400E 0.23 F1-11t 53 16 37 180 1 24 25 155 SB29 [C9S] N2 JA25N L150E 0.5 Fit 34 9 25 123 1 20 21 102 SB29 [C10S] N12 JA25N L625E 0.44 F2-2t 117 16 101 494 1 28 29 465 SB29 [CIS] N6 JA25N L400E 0.44 F1-2t 52 8 44 216 1 24 25 191 SB29 [C21S] N2 JA25N L625E 0.36 Fit 80 47 32 157 1 28 29 128 SB29 [C24S] N13 JA25N L625E 0.25 F2-2t 41 15 26 127 1 28 29 98 SB29 [C37S] N13 JA25N L200E 0.33 F2-5t 14 3 11 53 1 20 21 32 SB30 [C4S] NS JA25N L400E 0.43 Fit 38 10 28 135 1 24 25 110 SB31 [M2S] N21 JA25N L160E 0.33 F1-16t 25 10 15 73 1 20 21 52 SB31 [MSS] NS JA25N L150E 0.27 F1-2t 11 2 8 39 1 20 21 18 SB31 [Ml OS] N8 UA25N L160E 0.49 F1-2t 29 6 23 112 1 20 21 91 SB31 [Ml 1S] N11 JA25N L400E 0.23 Fit 28 8 19 95 1 24 25 70 SB31 [M13S] N8 JA25N L300E 0.33 F1-4t 21 14 7 35 1 22 23 12 SB31 [M14S] N6 JA25N L400E 0.19 F1-2t 32 11 22 106 1 24 25 81 SB32 [M18S] N4 JA25N L400E 0.43 Fit 46 10 36 176 1 24 25 151 SB32 [M18S] N10 JA25N L400E 0.55 F2-2t 111 20 90 441 1 24 25 416 SB32 [M19S] N8 JA25N L400E 0.21 F1-2t 32 5 28 135 1 24 25 110 SB32 [M21S] NS JA25N L625E 0.31 Fit 61 12 49 238 1 28 29 209 SB32 [M21S] N13 JA25N L150E 0.34 F2-4t 15 6 10 47 1 20 21 26 SB32 [M23S] NS JA25N L180E 0.39 F1-3t 32 9 23 112 1 20 21 91 SB32 [M24S] N8 JA25N L315E 0.56 F1-3t 101 12 89 434 1 23 24 410 SB32 [M25S] NS JA25N L180E 0.26 F1-2t 24 8 15 74 1 20 21 53 SB32 [M26S] N4 JA25N L180E 0.35 Fit 16 2 14 67 1 20 21 46 SB32 [M26S] N12 JA25N L300E 0.15 F2-2t 14 4 10 49 1 22 23 26 SB33 [C31S] N9 JA25N L1000E 0.19 Fit 137 13 123 602 1 35 36 566 SB33 [C33S] N4 JA25N L400E 0.26 F1-1t 40 17 22 109 1 24 25 84 SB33 [C28S] N11 UA25N L1000E 0.1 F1~6t 51 16 35 170 1 35 36 134

APPENDIX-12 APPENDIX 6 Summary of Calculation Result of 400V Systems with Projects

Higher Voltage Introduction for LV Systems

FILE START DEST LINE TRFM LOG Open LOLD LNEW LRED BNFIT Construction COST(MU) NETS NODE NODE CODE CODE (km) Branch (kW) (kW) (kW) (MU) LINE TRFM Total (MU) SB33 [C20S] N4 JA25N L400E 0.3 F1-2t 46 9 37 181 1 24 25 156 SB33 [C27S] N5 JA25N L200E 0.39 F1-2t 53 23 30 147 1 20 21 126 SB33 [C26S] N6 JA25N L500E 0.14 F2t 25 7 17 84 1 26 27 57 SB34 [C6S] N4 JA25N L1000E 0.34 Fit 244 23 221 1081 1 35 36 1045 SB34 [C6S] N11 JA25N L500E 0.23 F2t 46 10 37 181 1 26 27 154 SB34 [C18S] N7 JA25N L315E 0.25 F1-2t 39 8 31 153 1 23 24 129 SB34 [C18S] N19 JA25N L400E 0.4 F2-4t 53 9 44 214 1 24 25 189 SB34 [C19S] N5 JA25N L250E 0.21 F1-2t 16 6 10 48 1 21 22 26 SB34 [C62S] N13 JA25N L200E 0.36 F1-8t 25 5 20 97 1 20 21 76 SB34 [C62S] N22 JA25N L500E 0.35 F2-4t 113 21 93 454 1 26 27 427 SB34 [C45S] N8 JA25N L300E 0.29 F2-4t 46 15 31 151 1 22 23 128 SB34 [C43S] N5 JA25N L80E 0.16 F1-2t 9 2 7 34 1 18 19 15 SB34 [C43S] N10 JA25N L500E 0.39 F2-2t 115 23 92 452 1 26 27 425 SB53 [C159S] N11 JA25N L400E 0.93 F2-6t 169 55 114 559 2 24 26 533 SB53 [C156S] N12 JA25N L500E 0.19 F1-7t 69 21 48 233 1 26 27 206 SB53 [C154S] N4 JA25N L200E 0.3 Fit 17 3 14 67 1 20 21 46 SB53 [C154S] N12 JA25N L100E 0.51 F2-6t 18 6 12 58 1 19 20 38 SB53 [C153S] N3 JA25N L160E 0.19 Fit 11 3 8 39 1 20 21 18 SB53 [C153S] N8 JA25N L250E 0.24 F2-3t 24 9 15 74 1 21 22 52 SB53 [C152S] N9 JA25N L250E 0.38 F1-5t 68 10 58 283 1 21 22 261 SB53 [C138S] N3 JA25N L250E 0.22 Fit 14 5 9 44 1 21 22 22 SB53 [C138S] N14 JA25N L160E 0.3 F2-4t 12 4 8 38 1 20 21 17 SB53 [C140S] N12 JA25N L500E 0.33 F2-4t 81 15 66 323 1 26 27 296

total 5141 1202 3936 19240 104 2349 2453 16787

APPENDIX-13 REFERENCE REFERENCE

published No. title publisher year

1 Myanmar Business Directory (1998) 1998

The Central Intelligence 2 Chiefs of State Agency (HP)

OECF Research Paper No. 13 3 OECF 1996 f Present condition and subject of Myanmar economy]

4 The Embassy of Japan in Myanmar

5 IMF May 22,1998 IMF (HP)

6 Myanmar Statistics (RFESC, 1997/98) 1997/98

Ministry of National 7 Review of the Financial, Economic and Social Conditions Planning & Economic 1985/86 Development

8 n if 1994/95

9 n II 1996/97

10 n II 1997/98

11 Statistical Yearbook 1997 1997

12 Statistical Yearbook 1998 1998

13 Data from Myanmar Central Bank Myanmar Central Bank

14 Data from ADB ADB (HP) published No. title publisher year

International Labour 15 Yearbook of Labour Statistics 1994 Office (HP)

Ministry of National 16 Economic Development of Myanmar Planning & Economic 1998 Development

17 Statistics MEPE 1998

Environment Agency 18 C02 Emission Report 1992 Government of Japan

19 General Information of Myanmar JETRO Yangon 1999

20 Enconomic Introduction NIPPONHYORONSHA

New development of Myanmar 21 IDE 1995 Approach to the release and growth

The Economist 22 Country Profile: Myanmar (Burma) 1998-99 1999 Intelligence Unit, UK

23 Basic knowledge of present terminology 1998 JIYUKOKUMINSHA 1998

24 Basic knowledge of present terminology 1999 JIYUKOKUMINSHA 1999

25 Encyclopedia BRIKANNICA (in Japanese) TBS/BR1KANNICA

26 Japanese encyclopedia complete book (in Japanese) SHOGAKUKAN 1998

27 Data "91^98 SHOGAKUKAN 1998 MINUTES OF MEETING 23 September, 1999

MINUTES OF MEETING

FEASIBILITY STUDY ON ENERGY LOSS REDUCTION PROJECT IN MYANMAR

Tokyo Electric Power Services Co., (TEPSCO) appointed by New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization Japan (NEDO) visited Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise (MEPE) to perform the feasibility study on energy loss reduction project in Myanmar in connection with the resolution of the global-warming issue.

A series meeting on the subject matter was held between MEPE and TEPSCO from 7 Sep. 1999 to 24 Sep. 1999. In the mean time, TEPSCO together with MEPE counterparts visited project site of Mandalay district, Shwedaung and Mann G/T station for site investigation.

MEPE and TEPSCO confirmed the followings.

(1) TEPSCO explained to MEPE the “Inception Report ” prepared by TEPSCO and both parties confirmed and agreed to implement the study according to the description and condition in the Inception Report.

(2) Project site to be studied are; Shwedaung G/T station Mann G/T station Mandalay district (all 33kV in Mandalay district, llkV system in 7 township and 400V fine in 2 township - Chan Aye Thar San, Mahar Aung Myay)

(3) TEPSCO requested MEPE to provide necessary data and information as fisted in the TEPSCO Questionnaires with respect to overview of Myanmar, thermal power plant, transmission / distribution and financial analysis. MEPE prepared most of answers except items as listed herein. MEPE agreed to send them to TEPSCO head office Tokyo as soon as possible.

(4) TEPSCO will study a preliminary project plan and visit Myanmar sometimes Nov. ’99 for further study and discussion which will be informed at a later date.

Team Leader Deputy Chief Engineer Feasibility Study Team Planning Dept. TEPSCO MEPE 23 September, 1999

List of Data

MEPE will send the following data to TEPSCO head office as soon as possible.

1) Gas Turbine Project a) The cooling tower modification cost in the Mann power station b) Chronological data on operation -Shwedaung power station for 7 years (1982/1983-1988/1989)

2) Transmission/Distribution Project -Construction cost of 33/llkV and 11/0.4kV Standard Transformers [kyats / set] -Construction cost of 33kV, llkV, and 11/0.4kV Standard Power Line Systems [kyats / km] -Daily Load Curve at Peak Day and its data -Monthly Data of Data Log System from January 1998 through August 1999 -Documents of Long Term Generation Planning -Documents of Long Term Transmission Planning -Power Flow Diagram at peak day -Generators ’ Table such as Attachment 4 in Questionnaire -Revised One-line Diagram of Mandalay S/S and Aungpinlae S/S

3) Financial Analysis -Long Term Interest Rate of Local Bank [% / year] -Discount Rate for System Planning in Financial Analysis [% /year] -Marginal Capacity Cost of Standard Power Station for Financial Analysis [kyats / kW-year] -Marginal Energy Cost of Standard Power Station for Financial Analysis [kyats / kWh] -Life Time of Standard Transmission/Distribution Systems for Depreciation Methods [years] -Life Time of Standard Power Stations (Hydro, Gas, C/C, Steam, Diesel) for Depreciation Methods [years] -Construction of a standard small hydro power station (10MW class) for peak and middle load -Construction of a standard diesel power plant (10MW class)

(End) 4 November, 1999

MINUTES OF MEETING

FEASIBILITY STUDY ON ENERGY LOSS REDUCTION PROJECT IN MYANMAR

In continuation to the meeting and data collection on the captioned project held on September ’99. the second session took place at the MERE head office and MERE Mandalay office from 26th Oct. ’99 to 5th Nov. ’99.

During this period followings are conducted and confirmed by the both parties.

(1) Gas Turbme Project 1) TEPSCO explained “Draft Project Plan ” in regard to improvement of gas turbine power generation plants in Shwedaung and Mann power station under the attendance of 7 MEPE engineers and 4 TEPSCO engineers on 27th Oct. ’99.

For Shwedaung P/S Among 4 case study, both parties confirmed that case -1 (Modification to Multi-Shaft type C/C of existing three (3) G/Ts) will be the most appropriate candidate to proceed further feasibility study. In addition to case -1, TEPSCO will carry out preliminary study on “case -1 plus one (1) C/C machine ” supposing sufficient gas will be available in future for reference purpose.

For Mann P/S Case -1 (Modification to Multi-Shaft type C/C of G/Ts) will be the most appropriate candidate. The study will be carried out on the three (3) unit of gas turbines - adding one (1) new unit to the existing two (2) units, plus one (1) C/C machine.

Other titan case -1 of both P/S will not be taken into consideration for the study.

2) TEPSCO team visited Thaketa power station and Ahlone power station and acquired several information on the project implementation.

1/2 4 November, 1999

(2) Transmission / Distribution Project 1) TEPSCO received necessary data for llkV and 0.4kV distribution line in seven (7) township of Mandalay.

(3) Both parties confirmed that when this project will have been realized, MEPE will cooperate with Japan regarding the reduction of C02 according to CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) of COPS international conference about resolution of the global - greenhouse gas issue.

(4) TEPSCO will study a draft final project report in Japan and visit Myanmar sometimes early February 2000 for discussion and confirmation of a draft final report.

Hiroshi Oto UZAWWYNN Team Leader Deputy Chief Engineer Feasibility Study Team Planning Dept. TEPSCO MEPE

2/2 15 February, 2000

MINUTES OF MEETING

FEASIBILITY STUDY ON ENERGY LOSS REDUCTION PROJECT IN MYANMAR

In continuation to the 2nd session held on November ’99, the 3rd session took place at the MEPE head office and MEPE Mandalay office from 8th Feb. 2000 to 15th Feb. 2000.

During this period, TEPSCO explained summary of draft feasibility report being finalized by TEPSCO according to the discussion and data acquired so far. The following are confirmed by the both parties.

(1) Gas Turbine Project 1) TEPSCO explained summary of the project report based on modification to multi shaft type C/C of existing Gas turbines and those are in order and acceptable to MEPE. However, the following figure shall be applied for economic evaluation.

- Project budget shall be 38.8 MMUSS, 52.2 MMUSS for Shwedaung and Mann P/S respectively. - G/T fuel for both G/T stations shall be Diesel Oil for 1 unit and Natural Gas for 2 unit respectively. - Electricity tariff shall be 0.04 US$ / kWh. - G/T utilization factor shall be 80%. - Collectable electricity charge rate shall be 75%.

2) TEPSCO visited Shwedaung G/T power station and explained summary of the project report. TEPSCO acquired necessary data / information at Shwedaung to be incorporated m the F/S report.

1/2 15 February; 2000

(2) Transmission / Distribution Project 1) TEPSCO explained summary of the project report and those are basically acceptable to MEPE. However, practical locations of substations will be studied at the stage of project implementation.

(3) TEPSCO will finalize a Feasibility Study Report in Japan based on the comments and information acquired during the stay in Myanmar and visit Myanmar sometimes late March 2000 for final confirmation of the F/S report.

UZAWWYNN Team L eader Deputy Chief Engineer Feasibility Study Team Planning Dept. TEPSCO MEPE

%

2/2 28 March, 2000

MINUTES OF MEETING

FEASIBILITY STUDY ON ENERGY LOSS REDUCTION PROJECT IN MYANMAR

In continuation to the third mission on February 2000, the final mission took place at the MEPE head office from 23rd to 28th March 2000.

During the period, TEPSCO has submitted and explained the Draft Final Report, and then several meetings between MEPE and TEPSCO have been held to discuss on the contents of the Report. Since MEPE hopes the implementation of the Project, it is desirable that the Project can be implemented at an early stage through overseas development aid (ODA).

The both parties have confirmed the followings through the discussions. 1) Contents of the Project 2) Understanding of the Project under CDM 3) Submission of the Final Report, it will be sent to the head office of MEPE by the end of April

Although there were some questions of the arrangement of finance to the Project, both parties could not reach the conclusion to the problem because MEPE are strongly requesting Japanese ODA finance at this stage and TEPSCO, as a consultant firm can not help to resolve finance matters.

As for the trade of C02 emissions, it is necessaiy to negotiate it in more detail in order to determine the amounts and measures for the emissions.

Furthermore, TEPSCO will cooperate with MEPE to realize the implementation of the Project.

TEPSCO deeply appreciated the kindly cooperation of MEPE through the study on the Project.

U Zaw Wynn Deputy Chief Engineer Feasibility Study Team Planning Dept. TEPSCO MEPE When the contents of this report is announced, Please obtain the permission of International Cooperation Center, New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO)

TEL : 03(3987)9466 FAX : 03(3987)5103