Europejski wybór dla Białorusi European Choice for Belarus Эўрапейскі выбар для Беларусі

Warszawa, march 2006 konferencja After the presidential elections in Belarus Fundacji Batorego Conference in the Stefan Batory Foundation 24 March 2006 Batory Foundation conference SESSION I: What happened during the election – evaluation

• Grzegorz Gromadzki (Batory Foundation): The situation in Minsk at канференцыя the moment comes down to the fact there is no longer a tent camp Фонду Батуры in the October Square in the center of the city. There was a pacifica- tion, which should have been anticipated. Yesterday the Russian am- bassador in Minsk said that order must be restored. The speaker of the Belarusian quasi-parliament said the same thing. However, this does not mean that the protests ended. A demonstration planned for Saturday, 25 March is going to be held. Ayaksandr Milinkevich calls the inhabitants of Minsk to come to the Square. He wants to gather even more people than there were on the Sunday evening of 19 March. This is why our meeting is so unique. We know that several hundreds of people were arrested. The pacification of the tent camp itself was carried out without any incidents, the protesters did not resist, and nevertheless they were beaten after having been arrested, in the trucks. This is what we know. They are kept in some strange places, where temperature is below zero; one of them was able to call radio Svoboda. It is difficult to say what will happen to them next. The protest in Minsk in the night after the election was real. A dozen or so thousand of people came to the October Square, some claim there were even 20 thousand people there. A journalist of the Russian daily ‘Kommersant’ asked an officer of the Belarusian militia: ‘According to you, how many people are there in the Square?’ The answer was: ‘In our opinion there is nobody there, the Square is empty’. This phrase shows how different the languages we use are and how different our opinions are on what is going on in Belarus. We already know, at least to some degree, how the foreign countries are going to react. The USA does not recognize the election and an- nounces that sanctions would be introduced. The position of the EU is more lenient, but it also announces sanctions, which will be adopted in the next weeks. It is important that the EU started to act not after the election, but just before the election. That the tent camp managed to last until March 23 results partly from the fact that both Javier Solana 1 konferencja»conference»канференцыя

and the Austrian presidency explicitly stated that years. First we are going to listen to short using force would meet with a firm reaction of presentations of the panelists, to be followed the EU. This was important not only for the re- later by a discussion and a Q&A session. Let us gime itself, but also for Russia. Kremlin does not start with our guests from Belarus. I shall ask want to deteriorate its relations with the EU. Mr. Siarhiey Alfier to take the floor first. Today we would like to discuss several matters. In the first part of our discussion we would like • Syarhey Alfer (Center for Constitutionalism to analyze and assess what happened in Minsk and Comparative Legal Studies, Minsk’ member in the last two weeks: before the election, dur- of Alaksandr Milinkevich staff): Due to the fact ing the voting and just after the election. We that I am a member of Ayaksandr Milinkevich’s would like to discuss the actions of both the electoral staff, my account of the situation is opposition and the government. In the sec- not only an opinion by an external observer. ond part we would like to think about what It is also a report of a direct participant of the could happen in the future: whether or not events who co-organized the electoral cam- the opposition will remain united and what paign and knows how it developed and what the relations between the two opposition’s difficulties we came across. We hoped that the candidates, who rivaled Lukashenka, will be. elections would take place in the summer and We are also going to talk about what should that we would have much more time to build be the international response to the events in the image of the opposition’s candidate and Belarus. And obviously, we are going to discuss to inform the people about him. The authori- the future policy of the Belarusian regime. ties decided, however, that the elections would There are five panelists in the first part. Four be held five months earlier. We had to start of them were in Belarus during the election. It a campaign quickly. The government deliber- was our intention to allow you to hear people ated to the very last moment whether to en- who were there, who saw it and who have an ter the Haydukevich as a candidate, in case opinion on the events accompanying the pres- the democratic candidates withdrew from the idential election in Belarus. Two of them are elections. If such had been the case, the elec- Belarusians: Mr. Syarhiei Alfer and Ms. Olga tions would have been deemed pluralistic, and Karach. Mr. Alfer is a lawyer from the Center the propaganda would argue: ‘See, we have as for Constitutionalism and Comparative Legal many as two candidates!’ Studies in Minsk. Ms. Olga Karach is an inde- The electoral campaign started with pressure pendent local deputy in Vitebsk. Thus, we have against the members of initiative groups. This an opportunity to talk about what happened pressure was relatively moderate in Minsk, but in Minsk, and at the same time we shall learn in regions there was direct pressure against the course of events in the regions, like for in- them. They were threatened to be fired from stance in Vitebsk. By the way, it is worth not- work, which is particularly distressing in small ing that community works were announced towns, where it is difficult to find a new job. for Saturday, March 25, among others in Nevertheless, we were able to gather over 200 Vitebsk. I believe the purpose of this action is thousand signatures of support for Milinkevich to make impossible any demonstrations in the within a month. Kazulin’s staff gathered near- city. Apart from the guests from Belarus, two ly 200 thousand signatures. It was then that OSCE observers, who were in Belarus to assess we understood that the government is going the presidential elections, are taking part in to register both contenders as candidates. If the panel. The first of them is Andres Herkel, only one of them had been allowed to partici- a member of the Estonian Parliament and pate in the election, there would have been head of the Council of Europe’s Parliamentary a common candidate of the opposition. This Assembly’s Commission on Belarus; the sec- is something the authorities didn’t want to ond one is Wojciech Stanisławski from the happen, which is why both Milinkevich and Center for Eastern Research, political scientist Kazulin were registered. There occurred no se- and a feature writer. The fifth panelist is Ales rious violations in this part of the campaign. Dhikavitski from radio Svoboda, who has been However, after the candidates were regis- dealing with the Belarusian issues for many tered, enormous pressure against the initia- 2 konferencja»conference»канференцыя Europejski wybór dla Białorusi»European Choice for Belarus»Эўрапейскі выбар для Беларусі

tive groups started. We had no possibility to the fact that the candidates could not present disseminate our materials. Even all that was their electoral platforms to the voters. The con- printed for the state’s funds was confiscated tenders had no access to electronic media, with and only partially returned later. the exception of two half-hour appearances in More or less in the middle of the electoral the public television. The media time given to campaign the government started to use sanc- them was obviously not sufficient to get to the tions against the heads of electoral staffs and society with information on the opposition’s their trusted collaborators. In the beginning of candidates. Despite this, 15–20 thousand of March the head of the Mogilev district electoral people came to the October Square in Minsk staff was arrested and sentenced to 15 days for after the Milinkevich’s and Kazulin’s appeal. organizing an allegedly illegal electoral rally. According to my estimations, there could have Later, almost mass arrests started. The authori- been about 25 thousand people in the Square ties chose quite a clear tactics: to detain not the around 10 PM. Unfortunately, the weather was most prominent activists, but those, who were unfavorable and most people dispersed due to directly responsible for the campaign. Most of a blizzard. them were arrested till the end of the election, I must admit that the staff of both opposition’s and the volunteers were left leaderless. The candidates failed to prepare any actions for government used all means and methods to the evening of 19 March, because we believed make it difficult to organize meetings with the we would not be allowed to enter the Square. voters: rooms were made available to us, but Neither Milinkevich, nor Kazulin were ready to it was difficult to gather people there. In many answer the people’s question what to do next. districts people were threatened not to come It was not until 20 of March that it was proposed to the rallies. Despite this, many voters came to put up tents like in the Ukrainian Maydan. It to the meetings with our candidate, and his is very important for Belarus that this Maydan- popularity increased. Before the election 90% like tent camp was created, although there of the Belarusians recognized Milinkevich and were not many people there. When I visited knew his electoral platform. Before the elec- the university, some of the professors told me tion we lost all of our returning officers – at that they would go there to give the protest- that time 60 activists from Minsk and the same ers blankets and food. They were not afraid number of campaigners from other regions of to lose their jobs. The people were no longer the country were behind the bars. afraid. We have not seen something like this in It was impossible to scrutinize the earlier vot- many years. In spite of the fact that we didn’t ing, but we tried to scrutinize them in some really win, there was an enormous change in of the electoral commissions on the day of the the way people were thinking. Many of them elections. We understood of course that the will collaborate with us to make the regime government set a goal for the administration disappear from Belarus, so that we will be able to make Lukashenko win with 80% of votes. to build a normal country. We tried to conduct exit polls, but it was not I hope that the already existing coalition will entirely possible. Most of the voters did not grow. Directly after the election we started to want to answer the question who they had vot- discuss possible variants of further collabora- ed for after leaving the polling station. Taking tion. It is very likely that those who did not into consideration the fact that the majority of participate in the political life and did not people who voted for Lukashenko admitted it come to the Square, will join us. Unfortunately, openly, the sociologists came to believe that we did not receive considerable support from Lukashenko received about 50% of votes (tak- the Belarusian business circles. They are con- ing into consideration the ‘fear factor’), but trolled by the regime to such an extent that not more than that. We can be absolutely cer- businessmen encounter difficulties when try- tain it was not 82%. It was impossible to de- ing to give us funds. I hope, however, that the termine how many voters supported Kazulin Belarusian businessmen will understand that and how many of them voted for Milinkevich their business will be impossible to conduct on the basis of the official results. One should without their engagement in the politics and not forget the brutality of the campaign and that we will be able to work together. 3 konferencja»conference»канференцыя

• Olga Karach (local deputy from Vitebsk, ple from Vitebsk were told to ‘come to the Social Committee ‘Our Home’): I would like Square’. Nobody believed that there would to tell you about the last two weeks. It would be no militia, everybody knew there would be take too much time to discuss the whole cam- a militia’s cordon. On 19 March in the evening paign. During the 2001 elections I thought the many people did indeed come to the Square. situation couldn’t be any worse, that a more The other thing is that nobody was ready for intensive pressure from the government was the fact that there would be no militia. We are not possible. Now I came to understand it very thankful to Europe for exerting pressure could be worse. Before the elections all the on Putin. Lukashenka complained that Europe opposition’s activists felt enormous pressure exerted pressure on Moscow to influence of the authorities, they started to be arrested. Minsk not to use force against the protesters. People were arrested for ‘swearing’ the mo- The opposition’s candidates did not arrive till ment they left their houses, before they had 9 PM, and people were standing in the Square a chance to do anything. It turned out that the from 7 PM. Nobody knew what was going on, whole Belarus started to swear and to act like there were no loudspeakers. hooligans. As far as our organization is con- People came to the Square to protest against cerned, it started at 4 AM. They said, ‘Come what happened in the last few days. It was not out, somebody stole your car’. They wanted us to express support for Kazulin or Milinkevich. to open the door. But we knew our car was be- The loudest shouted slogans were ‘Shame on ing repaired and we barricaded the door. The you’, ‘Long live Belarus’ and ‘Freedom’. People situation in other organizations was similar. came, because in their opinion Lukashenka is On Wednesday and Thursday in the electoral a criminal and definitely not their president. week there were pickets posted at our leader’s Many of demonstrations’ participants had apartments and there was militia. We didn’t the impression that it was ‘almost a revolu- want to sit in our flats – to quote Lukashenka’s tion’, ‘almost like in the Maydan’, ‘almost own words – quiet as mice. We didn’t want Yushchenka’. Nevertheless, everybody knows to stay in a home arrest, because there is no that an ‘almost pregnant’ woman cannot have great difference between a home arrest and a child. My friends and I also had an impres- a normal one. On the other hand, we knew sion there was ‘almost a revolution’. I don’t that if we had started to do something, we know whether you saw the movie ‘Matrix’, would have been sentenced to the ‘standard’ we were in such a matrix ourselves. We were 7 days arrest. On Friday we all left for Minsk. a small group of people and at times it felt like Actually, it was the government that forced us we were in a different world. It was enough to go to Minsk. We didn’t want to go all to to wander as much as 300 meters from the the capital till Sunday – we wanted to vote, Square, and everything was different. There get in our cars, and then go there. However, were people, who cared only about their own already on Wednesday the cars of the organi- business. It was a completely different real- zation’s members were broken, their windows ity. It was a terrible impression. A revolution were smashed, there was a hunt for people cannot arise from the actions of such a small who have a driving license. When all the 16 group of people. The whole society must want of us came from Vitebsk to Minsk, we tried a revolution to happen. It was cold, everybody to engage in the opposition’s activity. At the wanted to get warm and there was also this same time Stsyapan Sukharenka, the chief feeling that we could get arrested anytime. of the KGB, was on TV 24 hours a day and My first impression of the Square after coming threatened that all those who would go to the from Vitebsk was that everybody there looked Square would be sentenced to death penalty. like a pathetic bunch of lunatics. There was no We lived in a rented flat till Sunday. We were strength, no unity, and no passion. I received able to meet Milinkevich. I wanted to see him, text messages from Poland and from Ukraine: because he said that all those who come from ‘go to the Square’, ‘defend your freedom’, but the regions to Minsk have an important task neither I, nor any of my friends got any mes- to accomplish. On Saturday, after talking to sages from Belarus. Can you understand it? somebody from Milinkevich’s staff, our peo- This duality was so strange. 4 konferencja»conference»канференцыя Europejski wybór dla Białorusi»European Choice for Belarus»Эўрапейскі выбар для Беларусі

It is very good that there was a tent camp. • Andres Herkel (Riigikogu, the Estonian Many ordinary people, who brought tea, cof- Parliament): I appear here in a triple role: as fee and food to the Square, were arrested. a deputy of the Estonian Parliament, as a rep- It didn’t happen because they were anti- resentative of the Parliamentary Assembly Lukashenko. My mother brought tea and of the Council of Europe and as an observer she was put in jail for 10 days. Families, who of the last elections in Belarus. I received had had no interest for politics, suddenly a Belarusian visa in the very last moment, but learned that their political views locate them many of those who intended to observe the among the opposition. Pickets at the jails elections in Belarus were not able to obtain started. Something new is starting to hap- one. The whole Georgian delegation, as well pen in our society. It was also a positive ef- as some people from Lithuania, Poland and fect of the events in the Square that people Germany did not receive visas. started to talk to each other. Until that time, The Council of Europe followed the events most of them simply tried to ignore politics. in Belarus carefully pursuant to the country’s Before I came to Warsaw, I was in the Square. membership application. There was a chance A mother with two children helped me to get for Belarus to obtain membership in 1992. In out of the Square. She collects her children 1997, due to violations of human rights, Belarus from a kindergarten and goes with them to lost its special guest’s status in the Council of the Square in order to help to get out those, Europe. Minsk tried to regain the status in who have to go to the toilet or to wash them- 2004, but the motion was dismissed. After the selves. She gives one child to hold to the per- referendum on Lukashenka’s third term, the son whom she is trying to help to get out, relations between the Council of Europe and she takes the second child herself and so she Belarus became even more complicated. As goes to and fro. a result, we weren’t even invited to observe In the Square there was this ambience of the elections (particular representatives of the a desperate, crazy joy. Everybody understood Council of Europe joined the OSCE mission). that we cannot defend the revolution, but When assessing the election we took into con- I have never before met such idealists like siderations three factors. These were: the situ- there. It’s a pity the opposition’s leaders ation before the election, the atmosphere and were not there. Nevertheless, it is important situation development on the election day in that people organize themselves, not waiting the polling stations and the vote count. The for Milinkevich or Kazulin. It’s a pity the tent situation in the polling stations was good only camp no longer exists. On 25 March many seemingly. There was absolutely no transpar- people intend to come to Minsk to participate ency during the earlier voting. We wonder in demonstrations. During these few days af- why this several days’ voting was introduced ter the election something happened in the at all. Representatives of various groups, and Belarusian society. I came to understand that particularly students, were forced to cast their I am proud of the Belarusians. People came votes earlier. We also noticed that there was to the Square and stood there, knowing that absolutely no transparency during the vote somebody might start to shoot at them. They count. The observers, who stood in corners came there to demonstrate their dignity as of the rooms, could not follow what was hap- human beings. pening. The chairman of the Central Electoral Commission said: ‘You can ask how many peo- • Grzegorz Gromadzki: Thank you. It is worth ple are there on the list of voters and how noting, however, that Ayaksandr Milinkevich many people participated in the earlier voting, was in the Square in the two nights and he but no one has the duty to answer your ques- did not left the people who gathered there. tions’. In the small town of Zhodino one of the This was a very important testimony. I would OSCE observers noted down every vote cast. now like to ask Mr. Adres Herkel to take the During the count he knew how many votes floor. Mr. Herkel was in Belarus as an observ- there were in the ballot box. His knowledge er and he can analyze calmly what happened proved, however, completely useless, as all there. the votes were counted together. There was 5 konferencja»conference»канференцыя

no way to determine how many people voted regime are naïve. It is outrageous that such on the election day, or how many people voted a possibility is even taken into consideration. earlier and how many people voted at home, The policy of the Council of Europe and the due to an illness. It is difficult to assess how EU so far has come down to reducing the rela- many electoral frauds there were. My experi- tions with the regime to minimum. It also has ence tells me that if a voting lasts too long, included high-level officials. The last elections there are many possibilities for frauds to be in Belarus showed without doubt how elec- committed. tions should not be conducted. The Belarusian election statute imposes many constraints on foreign and national observers. • Wojciech Stanisławski (OSCE election ob- There weren’t, however, many national ob- server, Center for Eastern Studies): I would servers. There were almost no representatives like to focus on limitations and ambiguity of of the opposition in electoral commissions. an observer’s role, especially in a situation as The way of electing members of local and cen- complicated as the one during the Belarusian tral electoral commissions is also an important elections. I would like to compare it with the issue. Ballot boxes were nontransparent, there experiences gathered in Ukraine in 2004, as was no access to copies of records and the well as with the experience from two previous access to the media was not equal. So what OSCE missions. Due to a post-election OSCE should we do? The European Union adopted report it was possible to describe the electoral many documents concerning the situation campaign, the course and results of the elec- in Belarus through the European Parliament. tions in the most complete way. A month be- The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of fore the elections several dozens of so called Europe also adopted many recommendations, long-term observers were sent to Belarus. but there are no other ways to influence the Then, 440 short-term OSCE observers and over situation in Belarus, apart from political sanc- 100 OSCE Parliamentary Assembly observers tions. The number of people responsible for came to monitor the elections. It was an enor- electoral frauds, who will be deemed perso- mous organizational and financial effort. The na non grata by the EU, should be increased. results should be assessed bearing in mind Assets of Lukashenka and his collaborators that the OSCE functions within a framework of could be frozen. The next possibility, i.e. eco- diplomatic formulas and a compromise must nomic sanctions, is a very delicate matter. Even always be reached within the organization. Milinkevich said he was not going to support The OSCE report of 20 March describes pre- them, as they would affect mainly ordinary cit- cisely all the factors that made the elections izens. The Belarusian regime will not collapse undemocratic: the campaign, censorship, op- as a result of economic sanctions, because it position’s limited access to the media, and can rely on Russian help. It is Russia that has the intimidating the opposition. We have also biggest influence on the situation in Belarus. a description of what happened during the Moscow plays a strange game, aimed at keep- bizarre 5 days of earlier elections and on the ing Lukashenka at power. No one knows why main election day – March 19. We can prove Moscow believes that it would be positive for that 11% of observers encountered difficulties Russia. when participating in the works of lower-level One of the positive actions that could be un- electoral commissions, as did 40% of observ- dertaken by EU is, above all, the creation of ers in subregional electoral commissions. In free media. In Belarus I saw the worst televi- some cases physical force was used against sion I have ever seen. It was even worse than the observers. in the Soviet times. The first attempt in this The observers, accompanied by an interpret- regard (a daily 15 minutes program in Russian er and a driver, had to fill in forms indicating in Deutsche Welle) wasn’t very successful. how many representatives of local workers’ I don’t agree with the opinions which rec- collectives visited a polling station, whether ommend some form of collaboration with there were any disturbances, whether port- Lukashenka. I believe that all the analyses con- able ballot boxes were appropriately sealed. cerning seeking a possible agreement with the These are important questions, but do we 6 konferencja»conference»канференцыя Europejski wybór dla Białorusi»European Choice for Belarus»Эўрапейскі выбар для Беларусі

really know what is more important in the from Poland and from the Internet than from given circumstances? Is it the sex of the chair- direct observations. We also watched the local man of a local electoral commission or the media. The central motive of media programs number of policemen within the 100 meters was that there was stabilization in Belarus, radius from the polling station? Allow me which was endangered by a possible collapse. to make a digression. In 1954, during the I believe it was one of Belarusian opera sing- election to the people’s councils in the then ers, who enthused about the economic suc- communist Poland, the Polish Press Agency cess of Belarus, but also warned that it is very reported that 92–96% of eligible voters par- probable that Belarusian mothers will cry and ticipated in the election. However, in eleven Belarusian wives will look for their husbands of the smallest administrative units in West in vain. A vision of the Belarusian state was Pomerania less than half of the people eli- presented, according to which Belarus had gible to vote took part in the election. If an to defend itself against everything and eve- OSCE form for Belarus had been used in a vil- rybody. Israel was presented as a positive ex- lage in Pomerania in 1954, it would have also ample: it was emphasized that Israeli special showed that generally everything was OK, forces develop rapidly and that they contrib- there are the local collectives, there are no ute to saving the country. Text message voting disturbances. Such questions make it difficult was used in very innovative way. 28 thousand to establish what really happens under such people responded to a question in a TV quiz an electoral statute as the Belarusian one. As ‘Who wants most to spread false information a result, we had a feeling that when trying about the alleged electoral frauds ?’ The an- to remain objective we participated in creat- swers were: a) international organizations b) ing a positive image of the elections. We had candidates who lose support c) the authori- an impression we were cordially welcome as ties. 52% deemed the international organiza- observers, because we could only confirm tions responsible, while 47% believed the op- that everything was OK and pose for a pho- position’s candidates were to blame. tograph. I agree with Olga that two Minsks could be ob- Electoral commissions reacted in many dif- served. The first rushed to the Square, while ferent ways to the presence of the observers. the second, a few blocks away, was a com- Most frequently they showed great concern pletely different city, minding only its own and confusion, which bordered on fear. Often business. I am very curious, which will prevail: they informed higher level authorities that this historical experience or indifference, and we were present. They realized that we un- whether it will be possible to mobilize this derstood what they were talking about. A few ‘second’ Minsk. times they emphasized that they knew that we knew. All this with a smile, which seemed half • Grzegorz Gromadzki: Thank you. We have tired and half cynical. We simply participated learned about two important things. The in some theater of absurd. I believe our pres- first one concerns the OSCE mission. In fact, ence there was necessary, however, despite a long term mission and a report showing all of my good will, I cannot sanction with my the whole election mechanism were neces- presence something we could not really influ- sary. Short term observers’ possibilities were ence anyway. The limitations imposed on the limited. In my opinion, it is important that observers were severe. We were not present a mission was sent. These two Minsks are the during the earlier voting, we were often not second thing. Also in Poland there were mani- allowed to stand by a table during the vote festations, while everywhere around life went count (and we were often pushed away from on like nothing was happening. I remember the tables), the votes were counted in silence, when the striking left the Gdańsk Shipyard in the results were noted on small slips of paper. the end of the 80’s. They were on strike, not We could not prevent electoral frauds which knowing whether and to what extent the soci- happened right in front of our eyes. ety supports their actions. Perhaps we should We learned more about what was happening in wait for the demonstration on 25 March to see Minsk from text messages sent by our friends what happens. 7 konferencja»conference»канференцыя

• Ales Dzikavitski (Radio Svaboda): Just banal statement may be ground for arresting a few remarks. I am happy that some time has somebody. passed since the events in the morning, be- No one of the preceding speakers talked about cause otherwise I would say something incor- how Poland supports the changes in Belarus. rect. The current election cannot be compared I have lived here since the last presidential elec- to the one which took place five years ago. tions in Belarus and I remember how difficult A few days ago I called to Pinsk, my home city. it was to find something concerning Belarus in It turned out that also my colleagues engaged the Polish media only three years ago. It was in the opposition’s activity were arrested with- difficult to find any analyst interested in the in half an hour. One of them walked a dog. subject, they all had many topics to choose The dog came back home alone. Something from for their publications. I am proud to live in like that has never before happened in the his- this country and to know these people. Nobody tory of independent Belarus. I am scared by has been so engaged in the Belarusian matters the fact that it is all done by our countrymen, as Poland. I remember an exhibition about boys with whom I used to drink bear togeth- Belarus in the European Parliament in Brussels, er. These people arrested my colleagues not which was organized by Polish deputies. I asked even looking into their eyes. A judge, a man other deputies for a commentary. I asked some whom we also know, sentenced them for hoo- Frenchman, and he answered me, surprised, liganism. I have never heard them swear. The ‘Where is this Belarus situated?’ This dialogue Belarusian society is now very intimidated. reflects the Old Europe’s attitude to what hap- A friend from Pinsk has visited me recently in pens in my country. Warsaw. I asked him, ‘Whom are you going I have often heard about the so called ‘inde- to vote for?’, he answered, ‘For Lukashenka. pendent polls’, according to which ‘60% of Yes, I hate him, but I heard that they are go- Belarusians nevertheless support Lukashenka’. ing to lift prints from voting cards of people One may conduct a poll only if respondents are who voted for Milinkevich’. This is how an aware of two options. If they are afraid that educated, well-off businessman thinks, a man their fingerprints will be checked, what will who has traveled abroad. If he thinks so, what their answers in such a poll be? These polls about other voters? Seven years ago, when my are pointless as far as Belarus is concerned. father came to a post office to subscribe an People often ask me whether the Belarusians independent newspaper, he was warned that need freedom? Maybe they feel well in this he could fall victim to repressions. It seemed kolkhoz? I can only say that I am sure the a joke then, it doesn’t seem a joke know. Before Belarusians don’t want to be beaten, humili- the 2001 elections I did terrible things with my ated and cheated on. Lack of access to true in- friends – we printed anti-Lukashenka articles. formation is a principal question – the media Compared to the current situation, there was repeat the same messages 24 hours a day. If then democracy in Belarus. People were ar- you repeat so many times to somebody that rested only occasionally. Representatives of he or she is stupid, he or she is finally going the authorities bowed to us, when no one saw to think this might really be true. I believe that it, because no one knew who would win and if the Belarusians had free media, they would we might become members of the city coun- make a right choice. In Belarus an independ- cil. Nowadays everything changed, the regime ent journalist is usually a supporter of the op- is self-assured. There is an old Soviet method position. Some of my friends, the so called – to bring soldiers from a different Soviet re- hardliners, ask me a question: ‘Well, if there public to pacify strikes. However, when people were these free media of yours and the people from the same town participate in the pacifi- would elect Lukashenka once again?’ I would cation, it proves that they are really intimidat- get used to it. Perhaps I would then stay in ed. A law exists now, which allows to arrest Poland permanently, but I would like my na- every Belarusian who gives unfavorable com- tion to have a possibility to make a free choice mentaries about Belarus to foreign press. ‘It is anyway. I would like to thank the Poles once already the second day of spring and snow has again for their engagement and for making not been cleared from the streets yet’ – this a debate on this subject possible. 8 konferencja»conference»канференцыя Europejski wybór dla Białorusi»European Choice for Belarus»Эўрапейскі выбар для Беларусі

• Grzegorz Gromadzki: Thank you. You may they are so passive’. We must remember what know ask questions. instruments the government has to make an election rally impossible. There is this famous • Zbigniew Pełczyński (School of Leaders, argument that Lukashenka would win even Oxford University): I have a basic question, a democratic election. It is completely point- which refers to what the last speaker said. less, we don’t know how many voters support What is the rationale of the authorities’ ac- him. If there had been a normal democratic tions? According to one of the theories used plebiscite for three months, there would have in the modern political science we assume that been no telling what the result of the election people who are engaged in politics act ration- would have been. I have an impression that ally. According to the theory we can create we tend to misperceive things, which is unjust a model of rational activity. If they don’t behave for the Belarusians. They showed great cour- according to the model, we try to explain the age coming to the Square. deviation. An error? Ignorance? Emotional fac- tors? In the light of this theory, I would like to • Grzegorz Gromadzki: Thank you very much, ask what was the rationale of this terror and I would now like the panelists to take the floor. using force against the opposition? If there had As far as the Saturday demonstration is con- been a chance for Lukashenka to win the elec- cerned, it seems no one from us thinks it is go- tions without terror, what would have been the ing to change Belarus. The question remains, point of using all of these repressive measures whether there will still be two Minsks, or may- and increasing pressure against the society and be something has changed in the Belarusian the opposition? From a rational point of view, society. the policy of the authorities was equal to saw- ing off the branch they are sitting on. • Ales Dzikavitski: I will answer the profes- sor’s question. These actions are very rational. • A voice from the audience: I would like to This is a demonstration of force addressed to continue the topic presented in professor the society, and also to the part of the soci- Pełczyński’s question about the irrational- ety which is a part of the regime. It is about ity of the authorities’ actions. On one hand, showing that every action, every deviation mass repressive measures provoke Western will be severely punished according to the reaction and consolidate the opposition. Are rule ‘Execute them, if they make a step right or arrests now perceived as less dangerous, and left’. ‘I am strong enough to disperse 20 thou- if so, to what extent are they no longer dan- sand, 30 thousand, 100 thousand protesters’ gerous repressive measures? Will the signs of – it is a message intended also for authorities’ solidarity with the tent camp continue? I know representatives in the regions. it is pure guesswork, although we might re- In a situation, where the desired state is com- ceive the first answer tomorrow, but what are plete uniformity, a protest against the regime your opinions? is extremely loud and even a gathering of sev- eral hundreds of people gives huge support • Jacek Cichocki (Center for Eastern Studies): to the latent supporters of the opposition and I decided to raise my hand after hearing the is a huge challenge for the regime. This can last question, because I have an impression partially explain why there was such a massive that we tend to misperceive things when campaign. Uniformity is the aim, and every thinking about Belarus. A week ago we start- form of opposition is undesired. The campaign ed to compare the Square with Maydan, which was intended also to reach the Belarusian re- is completely unjustified. It was a long process gions, kolkhozes, where even a potential three in Ukraine, which started several years ago, months’ democratic plebiscite would suffice and in Belarus it started suddenly. It is unjust to make the current situation collapse. Allow for the Belarusians to compare Maydan to the me to remind you of Polish experiences from October Square. The authorities will strive to about a dozen or so years ago. It was often make as few people as possible come to the a surprise for people in Warsaw to learn what Square and then will say ‘Those Belarusians, had happened in Pszczółczyn or Krotoszyn. 9 konferencja»conference»канференцыя

Ostashki near Mir, where I have been recently, there. But how could they learn about it oth- is an example of a town for which the opposi- erwise – from the Internet? tion’s campaign is intended. • Syarhey Alfer: I wouldn’t like to argue here • Andres Herkel: National identity has driven with Olga. I hope her organization will organize many Central and Eastern European countries. lectures on how to act when dealing with the An underdeveloped national identity may militia. I won only 2 cases, by accident. When cause problems. Freedom may be important you get arrested, you usually are stressed out for both Russian-speaking and Belarusian- and you don’t know what to do. What kind of speaking citizens of Belarus. The question a defense can we talk about here? about rationalism is really of philosophical The second thing is the question of the character, sometimes a democracy does not Belarusian and Russian languages. When seem to be rational, and sometimes dicta- abroad, I could of course speak here Belarusian, tors try to make their actions rational. This is Polish or English. In the twenties, when the a different case: if someone commits a crime Soviet Belarusian Republic was being or- and knows he can be punished for it, the only ganized, there were four official languages: way out is to commit new and new crimes. Belarusian, Russian, Yiddish and Polish. At Situation becomes more difficult when people present, majority of Belarusian-speaking, rural forming the authorities are afraid of punish- population supports Lukashenka. Let’s build ment or sanctions. Then they start to use more a democratic state and then we can decide on brutal methods. the question of language. I was asked how the Ukrainian revolution influ- • Olga Karach: Can we rely on people’s soli- enced Belarus. My answer is there was no pos- darity? Why did they bring tea and food to the itive influence. Maydan is not a good example Square? There must be a reason for it. In the for Belarus and it even helps Lukashenka. Soviet times solidarity not only was not sup- Will the opposition remain united? There may ported, but also it was punished. Lukashenka be conflicts and problems ahead of us, but tries to break people’s solidarity. We must there are currently no people, who would ar- give people information. ‘I, an ordinary citi- gue against further unification and consolida- zen, don’t know anything about the opposi- tion of the opposition. We must keep working tion, but I want to do something’. I once read together. in a newspaper about how they had expelled students from a university. They didn’t know what to do. Nevertheless, there is an algo- SESSION II: Prognosis of situation rithm on what to do in such a situation. It is different when you are on your own against development after the election the university authorities and you act on your instincts, and it is different when there is • Jakub Boratyński (Batory Foundation): The a step-by-step well-tried method, which tells next session will be devoted to prognoses of you what to do in such a situation. Let me give situation development. I agree with the re- you a simple example. My organization had 29 mark of one of the discussants that it would cases in court. Out of these, we won 14 and be a mistake to focus excessively on the ques- 3 are still pending. We won, because we have tion how many people will come tomorrow to an algorithm. It is important to use past ex- the Square. It will not determine everything. periences – what to do when you are taken We really hoped that Vincuk Viacorka would to a police station? We must gather pieces of join us, as he was released from prison yes- information. It is important for people to have terday. Unfortunately, he could not come. a symbol of solidarity – for example lighting I talked to him over the phone. He estimated a candle in the window ledge. The people that around 400 people had been arrested, but were told ‘bring vacuum bottles’ and so they he also told us to remember that nothing ends did. If someone had printed leaflets ‘people, and everything has just started. In his opinion come to the Square’, they would have come repressions show that Lukashenka is really 10 konferencja»conference»канференцыя Europejski wybór dla Białorusi»European Choice for Belarus»Эўрапейскі выбар для Беларусі

afraid. There are four panelists at the table. center of the country’s democratization. We I would like Mr. Yaroslav Romanchuk, an ana- must make Lukashenka believe that we are lyst, economist and opposition politician, to a significant force and that we can take over take the floor first. What is your opinion as to the power in the country. what will happen in the nearest and in more There is a dilemma – should Milinkevich and distant future? Will this miracle of appointing the coalition act within the boundaries of law? a common opposition’s presidential candidate Should we take more radical steps on 25 March be lasting? I am an optimist here, but… I am or 26 April, when many people will gather in curious whether you share this optimism. the Chernobyl Square? After all, we cannot say that Milinkevich won the election. Our task • Yaroslav Romanchuk (Analytical Center now is to reach the people and tell them what ‘Strategy’, Minsk): Poland is a leader as far happened, to explain to them that the opposi- as understanding Belarusian matters is con- tion does not want destabilization and that it cerned. We would like the European policy does not propose to follow the Ukrainian sce- towards Belarus to be the policy which is con- nario. As a matter of fact, Ukraine is not a good ducted by Warsaw. example for Belarus. Despite of the fact that That the coalition was created is not a mira- we reached far more people than in the previ- cle, but an effect of good work of political par- ous elections, we still have to organize an in- ties and NGOs, which really required a great formational campaign. Perhaps we will be able deal of courage. Politicians and party activists to force the authorities to organize presiden- without doubt want the coalition to survive, tial elections earlier than in five years. to become stronger and to be the center of Lukashenka stole our electoral platform; he democratic changes. All the credit for gather- wants to appeal to business and businessmen, ing 30 thousand people in the October Square although there are only 180 thousand of them on 19 March goes to the political parties, to in Belarus. The coalition has a great potential the coalition and to their leaders. It will be and Lukashenka loses public support. He has a principal task of the coalition to make the only new opponents. One more factor is important party, which is not yet a member of the coali- – Lukashenka’s cheating on Russia. He publicly tion, join it. I am talking here about the Social offended Russia for a third time, because he Democratic Party and its leader, Mr. Kazulin, promised to sell Beltransgaz and promised to who also was an opposition’s presidential allow Russian capital into Belarus. However, no candidate. Indeed, there are some different agreement has been signed so far. There are opinions on what Milinkevich’s and Kazulin’s people in Russia who earn a lot of money in function should be now. Creating one more Belarus, and as long as Lukashenka’s lobbying coalition is an alternative solution. in Russia remains strong, Putin will not criticize During a meeting between Kazulin and him in public. I doubt, however, that Russia will Milinkevich yesterday, the latter’s closest col- agree to any fundamental changes. laborator Mr. Karniyenka was beaten in front Russia now chairs the G8 Group. If it has an of his own house. The regime does a lot to ambition to be a European country, it should make such a coalition impossible. Milinkevich be confronted with the Belarusian problem. and Kazulin must rise above party differences. The human rights question should be raised. There are tactical problems between the two There are instruments the West could use staffs, but I have not noticed any ideological to influence Russia and to influence Belarus. differences. Our Western colleagues could I would like to remind you that the previous help us now by mediating in the dialogue, as Polish government wanted to conduct a policy unity is the key to the victory of democracy towards Belarus that would be similar to the in Belarus. Every other political configura- German one and now it has different, strong- tion would be a step backwards. This is why er arguments when discussing with the West. it is also an appeal to Polish diplomats – they Which policy will be effective? Sanctions could should participate in the dialogue and help be effective, but not those directed against the Belarusian democratic opposition to work 7 people, but against 7 thousand people – all out a strategy, so that it could become the only those who make orders to arrest opposition’s 11 konferencja»conference»канференцыя

activists and who harass them. We should also • Adam Eberhardt (Polish Institute of Inter- make Ukraine and Turkey introduce a ban of national Affairs): It was the principal aim of the entry for this group of people. About 200–300 opposition to become known to the Belarusian students will be expelled from universities and society, to shatter the impression that there we must help them. We must also aid those is no alternative for the rule of Lukashenka. who will lose their jobs due to an engagement The Belarusian democratic forces must build in the opposition’s activity. If the opposition foundations, which will be the basis for future offered jobs to these people, it would be real- democratic changes. It requires an evolution in politik, and not Deutsche Welle. two domains – mobilizing the adamantly anti- We will also need support for information presidential electorate and winning the socie- agencies and political parties. We cannot ty’s favor. The first of these two goals is easier rule out the possibility that they will have to for the opposition to be achieved. A demon- go underground. The EU must make its pol- stration of 15 thousand people in the October icy towards Belarus more concrete. Poland Square constitutes a considerable progress, if has something to say in this matter, because compared to the demonstrations in the last Polish opposition also was once an under- year. This is, however, not enough to upset the ground movement. You can make the EU part- regime. It is more difficult to achieve the sec- ners aware of what implications it has. Polish ond goal. Due to macroeconomic stability so- political parties have partners in Belarus and cial discontent is low, and in result the support if the government cannot help, coopera- for Lukashenka is stable. An opposition which tion between parties should be established, comes to a square to convince people that it as well as between NGOs. Polish NGOs have was supported not by 6% of voters, like the wide experience in this field. The Western authorities informed, but by around 30–35%, money should not, however, be used to cre- fights a lost battle. I believe the biggest suc- ate new groups, which would have nothing in cess of the opposition during this election was common with the rest of the opposition, be- promoting its leader, Ayaksandr Milinkevich. cause it would hurt the opposition’s unity and The opposition has to have a face that peo- prolong the longevity of the regime. We, the ple recognize, as it is then easier to shatter the opposition, are against economic sanctions. impression that there is no alternative for the We would not be able to explain to the citi- rule of Lukashenka. I would like to turn your zens why sanctions were introduced. Time is attention to analogies between the Belarusian on our side – Lukashenka’s policy has hurt the opposition and Serbian opposition during the economy so much that in 12 months it will be rule of Milosevic. Appointing a common presi- in such a disastrous state that far more people dential candidate (Vojislav Kostunica, who will come to shares our views. Situation, where was not a very well known figure at that time) 13–14% of our GDP is created due to Russian was the beginning of the opposition’s march help is impossible to maintain. Russia wants towards victory. Belarus to become a part of Russia, which is The march will probably last long in Belarus. It why it is going to invest in its Yanukovych. We seems that the authorities are strong, and con- must understand that unity on NGOs’ and po- trary to the popular belief, increasing the scale litical parties’ level will be the basis for a vic- of repressions before the elections was not tory in Belarus not five years from now, but a sign of panic. It was rather a sign of caution. much sooner. Lukashenka knows that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. Professor Pełczyński • Jakub Boratyński: Thank you. I would like to asked whether the authorities’ activity was comment on what you said in the beginning rational. I say that it was rational. If the elec- and in the end. A very important test lies now tion had been more democratic, Lukashenka ahead of Poland, because for the first time it would have won anyway, but the long-term seems that we possess funds big enough to consequences could have been disastrous for coordinate the activity so that the unification him. If the opposition had strengthened its process of the Belarusian opposition will not position, it could have brought problems for be hurt. Lukashenka five years later. This is why the 12 konferencja»conference»канференцыя Europejski wybór dla Białorusi»European Choice for Belarus»Эўрапейскі выбар для Беларусі

Belarusian president will do anything to, as he It could for example demand more intensively announced during the campaign, annihilate for Beltransgaz to be privatized. Russian’s ac- the opposition completely. I turn your atten- cession to the World Trade Organization will tion to the fact that the authorities’ principal also be an important factor here. Consequently, way of fighting the opposition is to negate its Belarus will lose its position in the Russian mar- existence. This is a very effective method. It is ket. Belarusian exports will be driven out from no accident that the opposition’s candidate the Russian market by Chinese, American and received officially 6% of votes in this election, European goods. This will constitute a danger while five years ago it was as much as 15% and for economic stability of Belarus and will make the elections five years ago were objectively the society’s standard of living deteriorate. An a defeat for the opposition. This is an attempt increase of the natural gas’s price, already an- to convince the society that there might have nounced by Russia, could also have a disastrous been an opposition once, but it no longer ex- impact on the Belarusian economy. If the price ists at present. of the natural gas rises from $50 to $200 for As far as the international factor is concerned, a thousand cubic meters, it will result in 3 billion our capability to influence the situation in dollars of additional expenses in the Belarusian Belarus is very limited. Economic sanctions budget. Political concessions and allowing against Belarus are out of question, because Russian enterprises to participate in privatiza- they would affect mainly the society. This could tion of Belarusian companies may be an alter- strengthen the regime, like it happened in Cuba. native solution for Lukashenka. Nevertheless, Refusing to give European visas to the regime’s in the long term it could upset the stability of representatives is a most welcome solution, al- the Belarusian regime. though it has a purely symbolic meaning. The If there are changes to be expected in Belarus, desirable activity of the West should be focused they will be driven be external factors, mainly on long-term actions, aimed at strengthening those that have to do with Russia. Sooner or civil society in Belarus. The flagship project at later they will undermine Belarusian economic the moment is to create a radio station. I re- stability. Consequently, it will mobilize the so- main quite skeptical in this matter. We live in ciety and cause a decrease of the president’s the times of an omnipotent television. You popularity. At that moment it will be important must be a convinced follower of the opposition for the opposition to remain united around to make the effort to find in the short waves one leader. Only all of these factors combined an opposition’s radio station among a dozen together can cause significant changes. other radio stations and to listen to it. It is of I would also like to refer to what Yaroslav course not difficult to prepare a list of desira- Romanchuk said. I disagree with the opinion ble actions the West could undertake. I would that Russia can be an instrument of the poli- include here financing anti-regime organiza- cy towards Belarus. Moscow has categorical- tions, organizing a system of scholarships for ly rejected such a possibility and has shown students, introducing visa facilitations and fa- a consistency in this matter, which the West cilitations for seasonal workers. The problem lacks. I believe rather that Belarus could be an is that Lukashenka is going to counter all the instrument in the Western democracies’ pol- initiatives aimed at intensifying the relations of icy towards Russia. We should convince our the Belarusian society with Europe. Western partners that president’s Putin at- I believe that Russia is the main threat for the titude towards a possible democratization of longevity of the regime. It is true that Kremlin Belarus is the touchstone of his intentions to supports Lukashenka, who is not able to turn to build the Common European Home. the West, and that the Russian support for him arises from geopolitical calculations. However, • Robert Tyszkiewicz (leader of the Parlia- it seems that the Russian policy of giving mentary Group for Solidarity with Belarus): Lukashenka unconditional support in exchange I would like to focus on what we were able to for his void declarations comes to an end. I ex- do for Belarus. We have really wanted to cre- pect Russia will exert much more consistent ate permanent, not temporary institutions. The pressure, as far as energy industry is concerned. institutions would consistently work to support 13 konferencja»conference»канференцыя

democratization of our eastern neighbor. I am also be direct help, something like a shadow ac- convinced that such an activity will require a lot tion. The Belarusian opposition may be forced of persistence, but – firstly – there is a consensus to go underground and we must know how between PO and PiS as far as eastern policy is to help them. We want the Polish Seym to be concerned and – secondly – Belarus is currently a leader among the European countries as far a cool subject. Just look how many leaders of as Belarusian issues are concerned. We are political parties deal with Belarusian issues. planning to organize a parliamentary confer- Let me now present Polish institutions that deal ence within the next month. We would like to with Belarus. Firstly, there is the Parliamentary invite groups from other countries, which are Group for Solidarity with Belarus. Secondly, similar to our Group. We would like to work there also is an Interdepartmental Group ap- out a kind of a roadmap, so that we could have pointed in the Prime Minister’s Office. It is several common domains of activity. a kind of an equivalent of the Parliamentary As we start to work on this very difficult issue, Group. In my opinion it is still in its initial phase. we have an impression that the whole help pro- The Interdepartmental Group will coordinate gram will require a special law. As I observe the and assess the government’s activity aimed difficulties in spending money, I have serious at supporting democratization processes not doubts whether these 85 million will be well only in the East. Collaboration between the used due to limitations concerning the pro- Parliamentary Group and the Interdepartmental cedures themselves. Because of the problems Group is good. The Interdepartmental Group with the procedures a special law, a Polish ‘de- has a program; we are working on our pro- mocracy act’, seems to be really necessary. We gram, although we have been active only should talk about it simply to be efficient. These since a month. Finally, at last there are funds are the two most important projects we are cur- – 85 milion zloties were assigned in the budget rently working on. I would not like, however, and they are to be spent after consulting the to bore you with stories about the Parliament’s Interdepartmental Group. NGOs can apply for problems; the Parliament is rather disintegrat- the money, but it can also be spent by the Polish ed at the moment. government, by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It is not much, but it constitutes a foundation • Jakub Boratyński: Thank you, I would like to for further actions. Various experiences show use to privilege to give floor to panelists and that using this funds and appropriate proce- I would like to speak myself. In my opinion it was dures must be regulated. very interesting to hear about the initiatives the In my opinion Polish policy towards Belarus Sejm undertakes. Allow me to supplement what should be active in three domains: information, has just been said with what the NGOs know. education and direct help. It seems we can con- A sum of 85 million zloties is an enormous step duct a policy in all the three dimensions, which forward, but we must remember that this is the will be in harmony with the EU and with the whole Polish help program, which includes also Polish national interest. I believe it was a char- the members of CIS and non-European coun- acteristic feature of the Polish policy towards tries. We are really talking about a dozen or Belarus so far that it was merely reacting to the so million zloties for Belarus. Anyway, it will be development of situation in Belarus. There was considerable funds. At the moment the Ministry no concrete vision of this policy. As far as in- of Foreign Affairs is working on general guide- formation projects are concerned, it is neces- lines, which will determine how the money will sary to support free media, and as far as educa- be spent. About 40 Polish NGOs, which work tional projects are concerned, scholarships are primarily in the East and which form the Foreign needed. There is also another slowly emerging Countries Group, prepared their commentary. project. It is what I call an ‘eastern Viadrina’, i.e. We all have a common task. Not a penny has a European University on the eastern borders of been spent from the money so far, although the EU. It could be a place were the youth from three months have already passed. Many pro- Poland, Lithuania, candidate countries and the cedures must be initiated, in fact we must in- youth from Belarus could study together. It vent them. I would like to ask the last speaker, seems to be an interesting idea. There should Mr. Paweł Kazanecki, to take the floor. 14 konferencja»conference»канференцыя Europejski wybór dla Białorusi»European Choice for Belarus»Эўрапейскі выбар для Беларусі

• Paweł Kazanecki (Eastern European Demo- people came to the Square. We mustn’t forget cratic Centre): I would like to start by issuing that many voters also came to meetings with a denial. Contrary to what was written in yes- Milinkevich. Several hundred people came to terday’s ‘Sovetskaya Belarus’, I am not and I am a meeting in Liga, and there are no organi- not indenting, as for now, to be an employee zations of the opposition in the city. 6 thou- of the Batory Foundation. As I was accused of sand people came to rally in Gomel, and there corrupting the opposition, I would like to focus have been no mass gathering in the city for on the subject of supporting the Belarusian 10 years or maybe even since 1991. It all means opposition. It seems to me that the situation that something is starting to change. The in Belarus has changed. For the first time in opinion that the Belarusian society supports the last ten years the situation in Belarus was Lukashenka is no longer current. Of course, unpredictable. The opposition was able to I don’t want to say that the support for the take over initiative for the first time and it had opposition is so strong that Lukashenka will always been the government that had the ini- disappear within a week or so. Nevertheless, tiative since 1996. I would like to remind you it is sure that a long term process started with that in the last several years 2 thousand peo- the elections. We will watch its finale not in ple were arrested: former factories’ directors, a month, but in two or three years. officials. They were the main enemy, while the A very difficult process of strengthening its opposition was on the sidelines. Currently, the organization lies ahead of the opposition af- situation has changed. It was changed by the ter the election, but it now has a new face, Congress of Democratic Forces in October last which is recognized throughout Europe. It year. I believe the authorities no longer know is a remarkable asset. President Lukashenka how to react since the Congress. The easiest has been so far the only widely recognizable method is to remain silent and it has been Belarusian politician. It must be said clearly: noted that the authorities try to pass over the current Belarusian regulations force the the fact that a new leader of the opposition – opposition to go underground. There are po- Mr. Milinkevich – has emerged. Nevertheless, litical parties, which are still legal, but they this silence was broken. all have already received documents warning I would also like to turn your attention to the them not to undertake some actions, because fact that the Belarusian society expressed its otherwise they will be dissolved. NGOs are in opinions openly for the first time, in spite of a similar position, they are paralyzed with fear the fact that the authorities introduced very after the December decrees were introduced. severe restrictions, e.g. 5 years of prison for Only a unified and united opposition, which contacting foreign media, 3 years of prison for will have the courage to go underground, will participating in activity of an unregistered or- remain. Only courageous people, who will not ganization. One should not forget the speech be afraid to be arrested or to be punished for of the chief of the Belarusian special forces. every word and every deed, will remain. They He threatened that people calling Belarusians may be treated by the Belarusian society as to participate in mass demonstrations will be a worse part of the society. In Poland it was sentenced to more than ten years of prison. prestigious to be a member of the opposi- He also threatened that such appeals will be tion, it is not like that in Belarus. In Belarus it treated like terrorist activity. Despite this unfa- is prestigious to belong to the militia – those, vorable atmosphere and an increased control who beat the others. People, who were in the within enterprises, lots of Belarusians never- Square, decided to do so, despite the fact that theless came to the streets. It was group of they were not accepted by the inhabitants of about 20–30 thousand people. Yet another Minsk. unpredictable element. I would like now to discuss what should the On the election day I had an opportunity to European Community do and, above all, what meet with analysts from many countries, who we, the Poles, should do. I believe the Polish observed the situation in Belarus. We estimat- government cannot act alone, it cannot as- ed that there would be from 3 to 50 thousand sume that it will send some kind of roman- demonstrators. It is a success that so many tic missionaries to overthrow Lukashenka. 15 konferencja»conference»канференцыя

Poland must consider a long-term policy to- to determine the scale of this help. It is most wards the Lukashenka regime. It is important important, however, to show the Belarusians to arrange this policy together with countries a place they can head to as a country. It was like Germany. Germany has a different vision obvious for us that we belong to the West. It is of the situation development in the region, not so obvious for them. Many people in the but we are not able to coordinate and conduct West believe that there is no place for Belarus a long term eastern policy without them. among the Western countries. We must pro- France should also join this group, because it mote the possibility of a new EU enlargement, starts to understand that Russia is not neces- we must show the Belarusians a way they sarily a fan of the European Union and its long- could go, mentally and politically. The most term partner. As far as choosing the right kind important question is to create an impression of help is concerned, I agree with Mr. Robert that someone in Europe waits for them. Their Tyszkiewicz. I believe that access to free infor- road to freedom will not end quickly, if there is mation is most important for Belarus at the no such a perspective. Pardon my pessimism, moment. We know faster what happened in but this is a very urgent question. a square in Minsk than the Belarusian society. This is why we have to support independent • Jakub Boratyński: Thank you very much for media, and above all newspapers, which are your statement. I would like to remind you often published illegally. Secondly, we have to that the Batory Foundation has been promot- help radio stations – radio stations broadcast- ing the concept of a unilateral action plan. ing their programs to Belarus in Russian and The plan would show what the EU could do, if Belarusian are really a priority. It is easy to de- there was a change in Belarus. liver an information through radio. It is much harder to prepare a TV program in Belarus, • Ryszard Bobrowski (Central European because cameras is almost immediately con- Review): I have a question concerning collab- fiscated by the militia. oration of opposition’s politicians. In a simi- The Belarusian opposition operates in very dif- lar discussion two weeks ago two accusations ficult conditions, which is why it is essential were formed and none of them was really ex- that we support it. We should provide funds plained. They both concern Kazulin – he is al- for those who fall victim to repressions and legedly a puppet of Moscow or of Lukashenka. to those who must pay fines for their politi- Has it been explained? Will it have an impact cal activity. We should organize scholarships on the further unification of the opposition? for students who are and will be expelled from universities. This is the kind of help we can re- • Dmitry Solovev: I believe mass media are ally offer them. We must also show that we most important for Belarus at present, and this will not cooperate with those who collaborate statement specially concerns television. Only with the authorities. It is important that organ- television can quickly transfer information to izations like Belarusian Patriotic Youth Alliance the whole society. I doubt the efficiency of ra- are not financed with European money, as it dio-based projects. I believe they don’t have often happens. In fact sometimes our money the desired effect. is used to put ideological pressure against the Belarusian society. • Zbigniew Pełczyński: I must admit the tone of this debate is really depressive. A rather • Konrad Szymański (European Parliament): strange vision of Belarus emerges from what I am sorry, I promised not to speak in this we say. On one hand there are the authorities, panel, but I changed my mind. We missed one which controls the society brutally, on the sec- thing, which by the way often escapes our at- ond hand there is the opposition… Well, what tention. I believe that we, the Poles and the about those in the middle? Shouldn’t we think Europeans, agree as to the things that must about all those ordinary people, who have lots be done as soon as possible. It is financial and of problems, including financial difficulties? We organizational help for political parties, NGOs should also think about them because there is and media that is needed. The only problem is a lot of indifference among the ordinary peo- 16 konferencja»conference»канференцыя Europejski wybór dla Białorusi»European Choice for Belarus»Эўрапейскі выбар для Беларусі

ple and helplessness among the opposition. Is Don’t let us strangle to death. We believe in there a way to mobilize the civic activity, but you and we await your help. Yours sincerely, not in the form of activity within opposition? your Belarusians’. I am sure there are many people who would I did what I could. I believe even the fact that like to help the drug addicts or the disabled. It you heard about it matters. I received a confir- seems that there is no ‘third way’ for them. mation from the vice-chancellor’s office of the Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University that a res- • Elżbieta Smułkowa (the first ambassador olution was adopted to enroll students who had of the Republic of Poland in Belarus): We been expelled. If a student is not released soon, heard here today that Belarus has changed, they will try to do something about it, maybe but also our level of knowledge about Belarus through the Polish embassy, although he is not changed. It’s been a long time since the last a Polish citizen. Prime Minister Marcinkiewicz debate where I could accept statements of all said that there will be funds available to educate panelists. I believe it is optimistic that we start in Poland students expelled from Belarusian to understand the country. It was very difficult universities. The Warsaw University also starts for us to express our opinions concerning the to enroll these students. Belarusian issues. Professor Pełczyński pro- voked my reaction. A ‘third way’ is not possi- • A voice from the audience: In my opinion it ble in such conditions, because it will be either is an exaggeration to say that there are more subdued to the authorities or it will treated as demonstrators in Minsk. Perhaps there are an element of opposition. I believe potential more of them, which would be heart-warming, help should centre around providing informa- but if you take under consideration that Minsk tion and financial help, but not necessarily has 2 million inhabitants, then Lukashenka through official channels. I decided to speak can remain calm as long as 100 thousand peo- due to one fundamental reason. My former ple don’t come to the streets. We must open students were arrested in the Square. I have the boundary, not only for the students, but a letter from them from 22 March. They de- also for those who want to work in Poland. If clare what their political stance is, and they somebody comes here, he will never again be- quote how the mass media treat them. I am come an enthusiastic follower of Lukashenka. going to read it, although there are some per- sonal tones in the letter. • Jakub Boratyński: I would like to ask the ‘We would like to ask you a request. We ad- panelists to take floor. dress you not as a former ambassador in Belarus, but as an enthusiastic person, who • Paweł Kazanecki: The most important thing loves our country. We would like to ask you for is that today in the night a new ethos of the help. We are not ‘drunken dissenters’, as the Belarusian opposition was born. It is based on Russian mass media present us. We came to the fact that there was a tent camp like Maydan the streets together with our parents and chil- in the October Square and that many followers dren. We are normal Belarusians, who cannot of the opposition remained there to the very keep living in terror and oppression. Yesterday end. As far as the EU policy is concerned, my our colleague, Dmitry Hurnevich, was arrest- organization received last year a ‘Belarusian’ ed. He was a fifth year student of the Cardinal grant from a new EU financial project. We also Stefan Wyszyński University, a Belarusian from received a letter that our project should be reg- Nalibocka Forest with Polish roots. Polish istered by the Belarusian authorities, because deputy Jarosław Jagiełła, Belarusian student otherwise we will not be able to spend this Tatyana Khoma and people from Ayaksandr money in Belarus. So much for the uniformity Milinkevich’s staff, Mr. Dobrovolsky and of the EU policy. Mr. Lebedzka, were arrested. Hundreds of other Belarusian were arrested for participat- • Robert Tyszkiewicz: Polish Seym adopted ing in an illegal meeting. This is why we ask three resolutions concerning Belarus since the you today to mobilize your friends, who can Parliamentary Group was founded. There was do something for those people to be released. only one resolution in the whole previous term 17 konferencja»conference»канференцыя

of the Seym. Today a resolution was adopted is an independent player. Kazulin is a bit simi- on the violation of human and citizen rights, lar to Lukashenka, because he also thinks he which concerns using force against the partici- is a Messiah. He kept repeating: ‘Lukashenka pants of the protest in Minsk, as well as a res- did something for Belarus, but the opposi- olution on assessment of the elections. Seym tion is not capable to do anything new and explicitly deemed the Belarusian elections’ I am a new face’. He may have an image, but results falsified. We can also see the unbeliev- he has no political platform. We managed to able energy of the Polish youth, which also build a coalition of not only political parties, becomes engaged in the Belarusian matters. but also of experts who can elaborate a pro- I believe that this is a new Polish-Belarusian gram of changes for Belarus. In July last year neighborhood, which emerges due to this we prepared a book ‘Belarus, the Road to the common fight for freedom. Future’ to be published, but printing houses refused to print it. The book was written by • Adam Eberhardt: I am an optimist as far as many Belarusian scientists. When I talk to long-term trends are concerned. A process of ministers over coffee or beer, they agree with changes has started, although there is a long our proposals, but officially they would never road ahead of the Belarusian democratic forc- admit we are right. Indeed, Belarus is already es. Allow me one sentence of commentary to a different country, but there is a long road what Mr. Konrad Szymański said. I believe that ahead of us. we cannot expect bold declarations from the EU, if one takes into consideration its current • Jakub Boratyński: There is one thing I would internal situation. However, Ukraine could like to say in the end. We should exploit the contribute to strengthening pro-European fact that Belarus is fashionable to do some- tendencies in Belarus. A possible success of thing concrete. I feel we suffered a considera- the Ukrainian transformation would be a con- ble defeat. It is true that we were able to show siderable element influencing the views of the important gestures of solidarity in the last Belarusian society. weeks, but Poland unfortunately was not able As to what Mr. Yaroslav Romanchuk said: if the to create a radio, which would be heard in the EU says that Belarus is an issue that should Square in Minsk. I hope that we will be able to be decided upon only together with Russia, it cooperate with NGOs, with the government, proves that the Union does not want to have and that we will be able to achieve something a common policy towards Belarus. together. A big thank you to all our guests from As to Kazulin’s role: there were various rumors, Belarus, who had problems to come here, but but his own statements are most important nevertheless they made it. Some didn’t make here. I think that Lukashenko would never al- it; representatives of the Kazulin’s staff were low statements that attacked his government simply arrested and there wasn’t anyone else so strongly. Kazulin’s campaign was weak, whom they could send here, their organiza- much weaker than Milinkevich, but the fact tion is smaller. Thank you very much. that he was beaten by OMON proves that he Edited by: Wojciech Konończuk

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BIOGRAPHICAL NOTES • PAWEŁ KAZANECKI OF THE PANELISTS Chairman of the Eastern European Democratic Centre. Previously he coordinated the • SYARHEY ALFER Belarusian program in the IDEE Foundation Lawyer, human rights activist. Member of (Warsaw) and was an expert of the OSI Ayaksander Milinkevich’s electoral staff. Belarusian program (Paris). Since the middle Member of the United Civic Party since 1996; of the 1990s he has cooperated with non-gov- in 2002 he was chosen its deputy chairman. ernmental organizations and oppositional me- In the years 1990–1995 he was a member of dia from Belarus. Author of many publications the Belarusian National Front. He co-founded about Belarus and Belarusian third sector. the Lev Sapieha Foundation. Since 1998 he has been a member of the civic organization • YAROSLAV ROMANCHUK Belarusian Center for Constitutionalism and Political scientist. Deputy chairman of the Comparative Legal Studies. He specializes in United Civic Party. He participated in work- electoral law. ing out of Ayaksander Milinkevich’s elec- toral platform. Head of the Analitical Centre • ALES DZIKAVITSKY ‘Strategy’. In the years 1997–2002 he was ex- Journalist. Since 1998 he has worked in the ecutive director and deputy editor-in-chief Radio ‘Svaboda’ Belarusian service. He has of the ‘Byelarusskaya Gazeta’ weekly. In the been a correspondent in Poland for 4 years. years 1995–1997 he worked for the Center of Previously he was a social activist and editor- Strategic Initiatives ‘East-West’. in-chief of a local newspaper “Pravintsyalka”. He founded a newspaper in Polish about • ROBERT TYSZKIEWICZ Belarus, ‘Belarusian Accent’. Member of the Polish Parliament (Sejm) from the Civic Platform party. Since January • ADAM EBERHARDT 2003 he has been the chairman of Civic Political scientist. Program coordinator in the Platform city board in Białystok. Chairman of Polish Institute of International Affairs. He spe- the Parliamentary Group for Solidarity with cializes in Eastern European issues. In the years Belarus. In the years 1990–1992 he was an 2001–2002 he was a permanent correspond- editor in the ‘Białystok Weekly’ and of a doc- ent of the Polish Press Agency in Moscow; he umentary monthly ‘Plus’. Since 1992 he has participated in many OSCE missions in Central a founder and director of ‘Publikator’ publish- and Eastern Europe. ing house.

• ANDRES HERKEL • WOJCIECH STANISŁAWSKI Estonian politician. Since 1999 he has been Analyst, specialist in Russian history. He works a member of the Estonian Parliament in the Center for Eastern Studies. He has re- (Riigikogu) from the Pro Patria Union party. He cently published a book ‘The Orange Ribbon. is the head of a special parliamentary commis- A Calendar of the political crisis in Ukraine sion ‘Defending the democratic development autumn 2004’. In December 2004 he was one of Belarus’. Chairperson of the Council of of the coordinators of the Polish Observatory Europe Sub-Committee on Belarus. Previously Mission in Ukraine during the last round of the he was a lecturer of the Estonian Institute of presidential elections. He also was an OSCE Humanities, as well as an editor of ‘Eesti Elu’/ observer of the elections in Belarus. ‘Kultuur ja Elu’ and ‘Vikerkaar’. He studied psychology. He is the author of, among oth- ers: ‘Myth and Thinking’, ‘History is Rich’ and many articles published in both Estonian and international press.

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