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Evaluation Study of Definitions, Gaps and Costs of Response Capacities for the Union Civil Protection Mechanism

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Evaluation Study of Definitions, Gaps and Costs of Response Capacities for the Union Civil Protection Mechanism Evaluation Study of Definitions, Gaps and Costs of Response Capacities for the Union Civil Protection Mechanism D7: Final Report 30 October 2019 Centre for Strategy and Evaluation Services LLP Westering House 17 Coombe Road Otford, Kent TN14 5RJ United Kingdom E: [email protected] T: +44 (0) 1959 525122 Contents Executive Summary i 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Purpose and scope of the report .................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research undertaken ..................................................................................................... 2 2 Context for the study 3 2.1 Development of the EU’s capacity to respond ................................................................ 3 2.2 EU approach to defining modules, setting capacity goals and measuring gaps ................. 4 2.3 EU approach to risk management ................................................................................... 5 3 Methodological framework for assessing capacity goals 9 3.1 Overview ....................................................................................................................... 9 3.2 Event descriptions ........................................................................................................ 10 3.3 Planning assumptions .................................................................................................. 10 3.4 Capabilities .................................................................................................................. 12 3.5 Capacities and capacity goals ....................................................................................... 13 3.6 Modules ...................................................................................................................... 13 4 Redefinition of modules 14 4.1 Current response capacities ......................................................................................... 14 4.2 Overall findings ............................................................................................................ 15 4.3 Flooding ....................................................................................................................... 20 4.4 Drinking water ............................................................................................................. 23 4.5 Medical ........................................................................................................................ 23 4.6 Shelter ......................................................................................................................... 27 4.7 Forest fire fighting ........................................................................................................ 28 4.8 USAR............................................................................................................................ 29 4.9 CBRN ........................................................................................................................... 30 4.10 Medical evacuation ...................................................................................................... 32 4.11 Technical assistance and support teams (TAST) ............................................................ 33 5 Analysis of available risk assessments 35 5.1 Risks identified at national level ................................................................................... 35 5.2 Risks identified at international level ............................................................................ 37 5.3 Risks highlighted by UCPM activations .......................................................................... 38 6 Risk landscape and planning assumptions 40 6.1 Outline ......................................................................................................................... 40 6.2 Event descriptions ........................................................................................................ 40 6.3 Planning assumptions .................................................................................................. 46 7 Capabilities 50 7.1 Matrix of planning assumptions – capabilities ............................................................... 50 7.2 Discussion on Modules as capabilities .......................................................................... 55 8 Capacity goals 60 8.1 Revision of module capacity goals ................................................................................ 60 8.2 Revision of goals for experts and other capacities ......................................................... 66 8.3 Goals for new response capacities ................................................................................ 69 9 Capacity gap analysis 73 9.1 Gaps in relation to current goals ................................................................................... 73 9.2 Gaps in relation to revised goals ................................................................................... 76 9.3 Considerations on capabilities not mentioned in planning assumptions ........................ 79 10 Cost data 84 10.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 84 10.2 Development Costs ...................................................................................................... 84 10.3 Maintenance Costs ...................................................................................................... 85 10.4 Deployment Costs ........................................................................................................ 86 10.5 Summary of costs ......................................................................................................... 88 11 Conclusions 91 11.1 Main conclusions regarding the redefinition of existing response capacities ................. 91 11.2 Main conclusions regarding the analysis of costs .......................................................... 92 11.3 Main conclusions regarding the process of identifying capacity gaps and setting capacity goals .............................................................................................................. 93 11.4 Main conclusions regarding capacity gaps .................................................................... 94 11.5 Main conclusions regarding the revision of capacity goals............................................. 94 Annex 1: Proposed module revisions and redefinitions 96 Annex 2: Definitions of “Other Response Capacities” 103 Annex 3: Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems 109 Tables Table 1 Parameters of planning assumptions ....................................................................................... 11 Table 2 Modules currently defined in the 2014 or 2018 Implementing Decisions .............................. 14 Table 3 Matrix of UCPM capabilities required for events..................................................................... 51 Table 4 Revised capacity goals: existing modules ................................................................................. 61 Table 5 Capacity goals: new modules ................................................................................................... 62 Table 6 Modules considered as having limited relevance for EU deployments ................................... 63 Table 7 Revised goals for other response capacities ............................................................................ 67 Table 8 Access to Stockpiles.................................................................................................................. 69 Table 9 Access to Medical Counter Measures ...................................................................................... 70 Table 10 Capacity gaps in relation to the current goals ....................................................................... 73 Table 11 Capacity gaps in relation to the revised goals ........................................................................ 76 Table 12: Estimated development costs per module ........................................................................... 88 Table 13: Estimated maintenance costs per module............................................................................ 89 Table 14: Estimated deployment costs per module (transport by road) ............................................. 89 Table 15: Estimated costs for air transport of modules ....................................................................... 90 Table 16: Overview of proposed module deletions, revisions and redefinitions ................................. 96 Figures Figure 1 Comprehensive approach to risk assessment .......................................................................... 8 Figure 2 Information gap in the current approach to risk assessment ................................................... 8 Figure 3 Schematic overview of assessment framework ........................................................................ 9 Figure 4: Survey evidence on modules requiring redefinition .............................................................. 16 Figure 5 Risks identified in the national risk assessments .................................................................... 35 Figure 6 Evolution of hazards that lead to an activation of the UCPM ................................................ 38 Executive Summary Executive Summary Introduction This report is the final report of the Evaluation Study of Definitions,
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